http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33916/seven-years-plenty-hobby-games-business

The year that just ended, 2015, was a seventh consecutive growth year in the hobby games business, according to retailers, distributors, and publishers interviewed by ICv2 as sources for a report in the latest issue of ICv2's Internal Correspondence, #89.

With a growth rate of around 20% (rounded up to the nearest 5%), there were widespread areas of strength. In collectible games, the largest category, Magic: The Gathering continued to grow, and Pokemon grew faster, especially in the mass market, with other collectible games also doing well.

In miniatures, the second-largest category, Fantasy Flight Games' Star Wars games drove dollars upward with broader distribution, better supply, and an incredible surge in consumer interest and demand.

Better holiday availability of key board games in 2015, especially on those from Fantasy Flight Games and Z-Man Games, helped support growth in the category through its most important season. On the flip side of availability, sufficient supply helped contribute to widespread heavy discounting of board games by Amazon third party sellers, which is focusing attention on manufacturer policies designed to prevent channel leak from brick and mortar to online.

Card games grew even faster than board games, albeit from a smaller base, and roleplaying games, with a strong year from category leader Dungeons & Dragons, also had a good year.

The holiday season had some unusual patterns, weaker than usual in November and early December and then a flurry of sales in the second half of December. Online sales may have influenced that unusual seasonality, with customers flocking to stores when online shopping could no longer get their orders to them in time.

Here are links to ICv2's charts of the Top Hobby Games across five categories for Fall (September-December 2015), which first appeared in Internal Correspondence #89:

http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33915/top-collectible-games-fall-2015

http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33914/top-10-hobby-channel-board-games-fall-2015

http://icv2.com/articles/reviews/view/33913/top-10-hobby-channel-card-dice-games-fall-2015

http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33911/top-5-roleplaying-games-fall-2015

http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33912/top-5-non-collectible-miniature-games-fall-2015

Did I read that right? X-Wing has taken the top spot?

Though, the GW entry only reads "Warhammer" is that 40k? 40k/WFHB/AoS combined? Something else?

Remember that the ICV2 survey doesn't include any of GW's own sales results through their shops or web site.

However if the market as a whole has experienced further growth, it seems likely that GW has been slipping bacl again, given their static results.

The X-Wing game...I've seen this in every gaming store I've been to. But I've never actually seen anyone playing the game or even heard people talking about it. I wonder if its success is due to the new Star Wars movie and the mania that follows Star Wars collectibles.

That certainly hasn't hurt. You can buy the starter set in book shops here in the UK, thanks to the new film.

X-wing is massively successful and is played a lot. There's a very active organised play programme. The UK nationals in June will be a 512 player tournament and is already more than half sold out.

D&D is back at the top spot with Pathfinder 2nd. That's nice that Wizards finally cleaned up their miscarriage. Pity that all the White Wolf stuff isn't even on the chart.

Yup now FFG have mostly fixed the supply chain issues Warhammer 40K looses the top spot to Xwing (and Armada moves up to no 3) in Q4

(although that is apparently due to Xwing selling more rather than 40K selling less)

The next survey is going to be really really interesting to see if this is a blip or a longer term change

also interesting is the AoS is doing better than Fantasy (well it would be hard to do worse), but it's still well off hitting the top 5, still is seems that GW is moving in the right direction (Even if it is being bought by people to convert into blood angels)

I see X wing for sale at major bookstore chains in the US, and not just a boxed set or a couple of ships, but two aisles of the stuff.

 MeanGreenStompa wrote:
I see X wing for sale at major bookstore chains in the US, and not just a boxed set or a couple of ships, but two aisles of the stuff.

The Waterstones chain in the UK carries X Wing. They often seem to have more stock than some of the FLGS. I know they had the Tantive IV when no-one else seemed to have them in stock as I picked one up using book tokens and loyalty points from the store card!

 Cave_Dweller wrote:
The X-Wing game...I've seen this in every gaming store I've been to. But I've never actually seen anyone playing the game or even heard people talking about it.

Could it be that the game is a bit easier to play at home than a traditional tabletop wargame. Some of the buyers might be more board game-ish people who just play at home and are not even used to playing at stores.

Mario wrote:

 Cave_Dweller wrote:
The X-Wing game...I've seen this in every gaming store I've been to. But I've never actually seen anyone playing the game or even heard people talking about it.

Could it be that the game is a bit easier to play at home than a traditional tabletop wargame. Some of the buyers might be more board game-ish people who just play at home and are not even used to playing at stores.

It's still got list building with some not so simple synergies and uses terrain (asteroids), requiring a 3x3 space to play on. It's massive accessibility comes from being entirely pre-painted and pre-built. It's just so easy to grab a core set, get home, clear off the dining table, throw some printed card asteroids down, and get into it. I don't even play it regularly and have a small Scum and Villainy collection because I think the ships are badass. The fact that I didn't have to build them or paint them is a mega bonus.

It's good to see the industry is going strong, there's nothing like passing on the passion to a new generation of gamers.

*cough* that's why I always let the young kids beat me *cough*

... honestly..

 Cave_Dweller wrote:
The X-Wing game...I've seen this in every gaming store I've been to. But I've never actually seen anyone playing the game or even heard people talking about it. I wonder if its success is due to the new Star Wars movie and the mania that follows Star Wars collectibles.

I doubt it. Probably hasn't hurt, but it was gaining steam before then.

An otiose niche after all, eh?

X-Wing has a lot going for it. It's genuinely a good game that is simple enough to learn so non gamers can play it with you while having enough depth to support a big competitive scene. It has small buy in cost and doesn't use much space.

Prepainted miniatures open it to a bigger potential player base and while being pre made and painted might lack appeal to us hobbyists it also makes it a good secondary game for us when our painting queue is full.

I also imagine it's getting a nice boost from the new movie like GW's LotR game did.

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
also interesting is the AoS is doing better than Fantasy (well it would be hard to do worse), but it's still well off hitting the top 5, still is seems that GW is moving in the right direction (Even if it is being bought by people to convert into blood angels)

Where are you getting that from?

 Absolutionis wrote:
D&D is back at the top spot with Pathfinder 2nd. That's nice that Wizards finally cleaned up their miscarriage. Pity that all the White Wolf stuff isn't even on the chart.

Been in top spot for close to a year now. Approx 60% of the RPG sales are 5ed related. I did a lot of taking to people I know within the gaming/ entertainment industry so I got some decent figures. I sort of need to if I decide to do a RPG gaming module in the future.

But the RPG industry overall is still incredibly small... if you compare it too, such as board games as an example.

I think what is really telling that Icv2 only expressed Warhammer on their chart. It could be a typo error. It could be a combination of 40k/whatever they call fantasy. But regardless of the matter is that GW's game comes in at #2.

Again something that I have repeatedly commented. GW can not hide anymore with lack of information/disinformation on how profitable this company is.

It was a global company with its headquarters in England.

It has now digressed to a English company with decreasing global interest.

What is also telling that the Star Trek game is number 5. I find that now interesting as well.

Glad I sold all my x-wing stuff. I got out at the right time then (sold high). X-wing is ok, but just "card/ship" creep for every "wave". So if you don't mind dropping 100-200 couple times a year.

These figures are entirely misleading though and don't actually in any way reflect market share, which GW still owns a huge amount of.

The figures included exclude GW's own sales and also don't take into account GW's add on sales such as miniatures, paints etc.

In terms of starter sets yes X-Wing is outselling Warhammer, but it isn't by any means outselling Warhammer overall.

The Asmodee Group who own FFG reportedly have a Market Share of 24% (although that figure is from 2015) but obviously that includes sales of all of their products not just FFG sales. GW don't report their Market Share but it is way in excess of 24%. Admitedly it's very hard to compare Asmodee with GW though as Asmodee has a larger annual turnover but they are a much larger group that don't just sell wargames products and count Hasbro as one of their competitors. Again it's like trying to compare apples and oranges.

However it is telling that GW have refused to accept that they are losing market share to other games for far too long. For 30 years they have believed they are the hobby, but board games are currently seeing a massive growth and GW won't be able to hide from this forever.

Market share is a massive deal in retail but GW seem to be an exception as they don't share their individual sales break downs so we will never know which particular products are doing well or not.

But bear in mind that the figures in the report don't have access to all the sales figures and you can't really compare X-Wing to Warhammer as one is a ready to play board game and the other is a hobby orientated table top game.

*frown*

No 40K RPG on the list. I wish FFG would start doing them again. This drought is annoying. I get that you strike whilst the Star Wars iron is hot, but abandoning everything else?

StraightSilver wrote:
These figures are entirely misleading though and don't actually in any way reflect market share, which GW still owns a huge amount of.

They reflect stockist sales. There's nothing misleading about that.

They reflect sales from retailers and stockists but only of boxed games and exclude GW's own sales figures. They also exclude peripheral sales so don't include sales of minis or paints. So yes thay are actually very misleading.

Of course they are excluding GW's own figures, because it's stockist data. That's all it's meant to be. That's all it's comparing.

It's not as if the results are claiming to be the be-all and end-all of all retail sales of these products across all channels. They're just stockist sales. That's not misleading, it's just narrowly focused.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
Of course they are excluding GW's own figures, because it's stockist data. That's all it's meant to be. That's all it's comparing.

It's not as if the results are claiming to be the be-all and end-all of all retail sales of these products across all channels. They're just stockist sales. That's not misleading, it's just narrowly focused.

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true. Yes Independent retailers are selling more copies of X-Wing compared to copies of Dark Vengeance or Age of Sigmar but that doesn't mean they are outselling Warhammer as a whole.

It's just incredibly bad data collection presented as fact which it isn't.

Admittedly that's no doubt GW's own fault as I am sure they were offered the chance to include their figures but refused. It was the same with Black LIbrary, GW refused to add their titles to Nielson Book Data which meant they were never hitting the best seller lists even though their sales were outstripping many other larger publisher's titles.

Don't get me wrong, I accept that X-Wing is doing very well and in the board games market is a huge success story, but GW really don't have anything to worry about in terms of the table top wargaming business - they are two entirely different products so are difficult to compare.

-

StraightSilver wrote:

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true. Yes Independent retailers are selling more copies of X-Wing compared to copies of Dark Vengeance or Age of Sigmar but that doesn't mean they are outselling Warhammer as a whole.

It's just incredibly bad data collection presented as fact which it isn't.

Admittedly that's no doubt GW's own fault as I am sure they were offered the chance to include their figures but refused. It was the same with Black LIbrary, GW refused to add their titles to Nielson Book Data which meant they were never hitting the best seller lists even though their sales were outstripping many other larger publisher's titles.

Don't get me wrong, I accept that X-Wing is doing very well and in the board games market is a huge success story, but GW really don't have anything to worry about in terms of the table top wargaming business - they are two entirely different products so are difficult to compare.

This isn't bad data collection, and it is fact...for anyone selling product other than GW. No it doesn't have GW's direct sales, but for any retailer other than GW, that fact doesn't really matter. When "Joe's Friendly Local Game Store" decides he wants to expand out of selling just MtG cards and Pokemon into tabletop gaming, he now sees that GW -isn't- the market leader. This is a partially a function of GW's own hubris that it didn't need the flgs to continue to lead the pack and partially the reality that other companies are making some good stuff.

This also has to be worrisome for GW. You don't need to go to GW direct to buy more minis if you aren't picking up GW's core sets to begin with. This data is real, and it shows what GW knows...it has to come out of its fortress if it wants to remain relevant.

StraightSilver wrote:

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
Of course they are excluding GW's own figures, because it's stockist data. That's all it's meant to be. That's all it's comparing.

It's not as if the results are claiming to be the be-all and end-all of all retail sales of these products across all channels. They're just stockist sales. That's not misleading, it's just narrowly focused.

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true. Yes Independent retailers are selling more copies of X-Wing compared to copies of Dark Vengeance or Age of Sigmar but that doesn't mean they are outselling Warhammer as a whole.

What are you basing your statement that this is only Dark Vengeance and Age of Sigmar?

It says miniature lines. Not specific kits.


Also, of course this doesn't mean that X-Wing is bigger than 40k as a whole. It means that X-Wing is outselling 40k in independent retailers.

StraightSilver wrote:
They reflect sales from retailers and stockists but only of boxed games and exclude GW's own sales figures. They also exclude peripheral sales so don't include sales of minis or paints. So yes thay are actually very misleading.

Whats the sales of paint got to do with anything? I don't see Dulux on the list, but they sell paint.

The point is the figures relate to "non-collectable" board games.

These are self contained boxed games with no peripheral sales (minis, paints, rule books etc).

Warhammer does not fall ino this category as boxed sets such as Age of Sigmar and Dark Vengeance are a tiny percentage of overall sales and also require peripheral sales to play the game - which X-Wing does not.

Therefore you cannot really compare X-Wing to Warhammer - it is like trying to compare apples with oranges.

To then exclude GW's own sales also completely skews the figures so it is bad data collection and frankly pretty meaningless.

The survey gives thhe impression that X-Wing is now the market leader and is out performing Warhammer, which it isn't even in independents.

If you include GW's sales figures alongside peripheral sales such as army books, miniatures, paint etc Warhammer actually has a much larger percentage of sales and a much larger market share.

I'm not saying the figures are wrong as long as you understand that they exclude peripheral sales and GW sales but it is wrong to imply that X-Wing has taken over the top spot in terms of sales and market share.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Thud wrote:

StraightSilver wrote:

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
Of course they are excluding GW's own figures, because it's stockist data. That's all it's meant to be. That's all it's comparing.

It's not as if the results are claiming to be the be-all and end-all of all retail sales of these products across all channels. They're just stockist sales. That's not misleading, it's just narrowly focused.

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true. Yes Independent retailers are selling more copies of X-Wing compared to copies of Dark Vengeance or Age of Sigmar but that doesn't mean they are outselling Warhammer as a whole.

What are you basing your statement that this is only Dark Vengeance and Age of Sigmar?

It says miniature lines. Not specific kits.


Also, of course this doesn't mean that X-Wing is bigger than 40k as a whole. It means that X-Wing is outselling 40k in independent retailers.

The figures don't include miniature sales at all, and that's my point. They only included Games Workshop starter sets, the figures are for non-collectable boxed games.

StraightSilver wrote:

The figures don't include miniature sales at all, and that's my point. They only included Games Workshop starter sets, the figures are for non-collectable boxed games.

No. X-wing tops the chart for Top 5 Non-Collectible Miniature Games, not board games. Your protests are misplaced.

His problem was that he was comparing starfighters, not ferraris.

 Arschbombe wrote:

StraightSilver wrote:

The figures don't include miniature sales at all, and that's my point. They only included Games Workshop starter sets, the figures are for non-collectable boxed games.

No. X-wing tops the chart for Top 5 Non-Collectible Miniature Games, not board games. Your protests are misplaced.

The protests are not misplaced - the figures relate to non-collectable boxed miniatures games, I never at any point said board games. Warhammer is not a non-collectable boxed game as it requires peripheral sales which X-Wing does not, therefore the two are not comparable.

X-Wing does not "top the charts", it tops the chart they have created using badly collected data.

If they had actually compiled the figures including Gw's own sales plus preipherals Warhammer would still be in the top slot.

It's just sensationalised reporting using terrible statistics.

StraightSilver wrote:

Warhammer does not fall ino this category as boxed sets such as Age of Sigmar and Dark Vengeance are a tiny percentage of overall sales and also require peripheral sales to play the game - which X-Wing does not.

Therefore you cannot really compare X-Wing to Warhammer - it is like trying to compare apples with oranges..

You haven't played X-wing have you? The Core set is as much "the game" as Dark Vengeance is to 40k. FFG just doesn't make you buy an inane number of $50 codexes to have all the rules and the miniatures are prepainted and preassembled.

 bocatt wrote:

StraightSilver wrote:

Warhammer does not fall ino this category as boxed sets such as Age of Sigmar and Dark Vengeance are a tiny percentage of overall sales and also require peripheral sales to play the game - which X-Wing does not.

Therefore you cannot really compare X-Wing to Warhammer - it is like trying to compare apples with oranges..

You haven't played X-wing have you? The Core set is as much "the game" as Dark Vengeance is to 40k. FFG just doesn't make you buy an inane number of $50 codexes to have all the rules and the miniatures are prepainted and preassembled.

I have played X-Wing and am aware that there is the core set along with the add on ships including cards etc.

There are as many addtional peripheral sales in X-Wing as there are in GW products however my point is none of this was taken into account during the survey.


The entirity of Asmodee market share in the tabletop / board game market last year was 24%. This means that X-Wing's market share was below 24%. GW's market share in the tabletop market is somewhere in the region of 70%, which means that there is no way if you take all sales figures into account that X-Wing is outselling Warhammer.


Just to point out I'm not trying to White Knight GW and also not trying to derail the thread or be controversial.

The point I am making is I hate lazy sensationalist reporting using massaged figures to make claims when in fact the origianl survey was incredibly poorly carried out and only has access to a very limited amount of information.

StraightSilver wrote:

 bocatt wrote:

StraightSilver wrote:

Warhammer does not fall ino this category as boxed sets such as Age of Sigmar and Dark Vengeance are a tiny percentage of overall sales and also require peripheral sales to play the game - which X-Wing does not.

Therefore you cannot really compare X-Wing to Warhammer - it is like trying to compare apples with oranges..

You haven't played X-wing have you? The Core set is as much "the game" as Dark Vengeance is to 40k. FFG just doesn't make you buy an inane number of $50 codexes to have all the rules and the miniatures are prepainted and preassembled.

I have played X-Wing and am aware that there is the core set along with the add on ships including cards etc.

There are as many addtional peripheral sales in X-Wing as there are in GW products however my point is none of this was taken into account during the survey.


The entirity of Asmodee market share in the tabletop / board game market last year was 24%. This means that X-Wing's market share was below 24%. GW's market share in the tabletop market is somewhere in the region of 70%, which means that there is no way if you take all sales figures into account that X-Wing is outselling Warhammer.


Just to point out I'm not trying to White Knight GW and also not trying to derail the thread or be controversial.

The point I am making is I hate lazy sensationalist reporting using massaged figures to make claims when in fact the origianl survey was incredibly poorly carried out and only has access to a very limited amount of information.

Yeah, but whats paint sales got to do with anything? Its not "top 5 non collectable paint lines"

StraightSilver wrote:


I have played X-Wing and am aware that there is the core set along with the add on ships including cards etc.

There are as many addtional peripheral sales in X-Wing as there are in GW products however my point is none of this was taken into account during the survey.

The entirity of Asmodee market share in the tabletop / board game market last year was 24%. This means that X-Wing's market share was below 24%. GW's market share in the tabletop market is somewhere in the region of 70%, which means that there is no way if you take all sales figures into account that X-Wing is outselling Warhammer.

Your white knighting is cute, but wrong-headed. The charts are not trying to determine if FFG has more revenue than GW. Peripheral sales are not germane to the discussion. No one cares if GW is selling a bunch of green stuff, files, and paint. This chart is about which games are selling best in independent stores in the US. That's it. X-wing has surpassed 40k, and rolling greens stuff and paint into the numbers is not going to change that fact. It doesn't matter if 40k is still doing great in the UK, EU or down under. It doesn't matter that 30% of GW sales are direct.

StraightSilver wrote:
The protests are not misplaced - the figures relate to non-collectable boxed miniatures games, I never at any point said board games.

Really? Your own words say otherwise.

StraightSilver wrote:
The point is the figures relate to "non-collectable" board games.

These are self contained boxed games with no peripheral sales (minis, paints, rule books etc).

I'm sorry but you're misinterpreting the article. The ICV 2 rankings have been for years about general product lines and not the artificial distinction you're making about boxed vs blisters. The only confusion in that link is the new classification of "warhammer" instead of the previously separately named and ranked 40k and fantasy. We just don't know if that is a typo or if they are indeed lumping AOS and 40k together; there has traditionally been the same confusion with war machine (I.e. does it include hordes?).

 Arschbombe wrote:

StraightSilver wrote:


I have played X-Wing and am aware that there is the core set along with the add on ships including cards etc.

There are as many addtional peripheral sales in X-Wing as there are in GW products however my point is none of this was taken into account during the survey.

The entirity of Asmodee market share in the tabletop / board game market last year was 24%. This means that X-Wing's market share was below 24%. GW's market share in the tabletop market is somewhere in the region of 70%, which means that there is no way if you take all sales figures into account that X-Wing is outselling Warhammer.

Your white knighting is cute, but wrong-headed. The charts are not trying to determine if FFG has more revenue than GW. Peripheral sales are not germane to the discussion. No one cares if GW is selling a bunch of green stuff, files, and paint. This chart is about which games are selling best in independent stores in the US. That's it. X-wing has surpassed 40k, and rolling greens stuff and paint into the numbers is not going to change that fact. It doesn't matter if 40k is still doing great in the UK, EU or down under. It doesn't matter that 30% of GW sales are direct.

That's not true thhough is it? X-Wing is not outselling Warhammer in the US or anywhere else in the world for that matter. The survey only took sales figures from limited products and compared them against a product that is actually very different and also excluded the largest seller of Warhammer - Games Workshop.

If you actually took slaes figures from all over the US and only compared like for like and included games Workshop it would be a very different story.

The point about paint is that it's grossly unfair to include Warhammer in a category it isn't suited to. Warhammer is not a non-collectable miniatures game. It is an entire hobby and it's peripheral products such as paints and miniatures make up the majority of it's sales.

 Arschbombe wrote:



Your white knighting is cute, but wrong-headed. The charts are not trying to determine if FFG has more revenue than GW. Peripheral sales are not germane to the discussion. No one cares if GW is selling a bunch of green stuff, files, and paint. This chart is about which games are selling best in independent stores in the US. That's it. X-wing has surpassed 40k, and rolling greens stuff and paint into the numbers is not going to change that fact. It doesn't matter if 40k is still doing great in the UK, EU or down under. It doesn't matter that 30% of GW sales are direct.

This.

When you ask a US retailer which product line is doing the most to keep the lights on and his lil ones fed, its not GW anymore.

A non-GW retailer's only concern about 30% GW online sales is that he/she gets no shot at that 30%. In fact, GW is parasiting off the non-GW retailer. GW wants the non-GW retailer to sell the box set, get the customer interested in the game, and then loose every other sale to GW because GW won't allow the non-GW retailer access to the 'GW exclusives".

In a world of finite disposable income and game loyalty, the worst thing a new retailer can do is push GW games as a product line.

StraightSilver wrote:
GW's market share in the tabletop market is somewhere in the region of 70%, which means that there is no way if you take all sales figures into account that X-Wing is outselling Warhammer.

Can you post a link to the verifiable third party source of your 70% number for the industry? Because all I see is someone criticizing his own extrapolated "flaws" in the only industry publication source we have her simultaneously pulling a number out of a bretonnian horse's rear. And, preemptively, no, your local FLGS' s manager's small talk confiding in you doesn't count as proof for the industry in the whole of the UK let alone the rest of the world.

StraightSilver wrote:

The point about paint is that it's grossly unfair to include Warhammer in a category it isn't suited to. Warhammer is not a non-collectable miniatures game. It is an entire hobby and it's peripheral products such as paints and miniatures make up the majority of it's sales.

Erm, no.

Wargaming is the hobby and Warhammer is just one game amongst those on offer for people in the hobby of wargaming.

 warboss wrote:

StraightSilver wrote:
GW's market share in the tabletop market is somewhere in the region of 70%, which means that there is no way if you take all sales figures into account that X-Wing is outselling Warhammer.

Can you post a link to the verifiable third party source of your 70% number for the industry? Because all I see is someone criticizing his own extrapolated "flaws" in the only industry publication source we have her simultaneously pulling a number out of a bretonnian horse's rear. And, preemptively, no, your local FLGS' s manager's small talk confiding in you doesn't count as proof for the industry in the whole of the UK let alone the rest of the world.

The figures are quite old (2010) but to be honest not a huge amount has changed since then but in 2010 the world wide sales figures for tabletop wargaming was estimated to be around £150 million. GW's turnover for that year was £126 million. That put GW's market share at 84%.

GW has claimed it's market share to remain consistently at 80%, I used a conservative 70% because I feel in the face of the rising popularity of board games such as Zombicide, X-Wing, Drop Zone etc has no doubt dented that.

Asmodee last year reported as a group that they held 24% market share of the board game / tabletop wargame industry but they are a huge company that sells multiple product lines that don't just include board games or table top games, so if you went for a very generous guess that X-Wing made up 50% of their sales then X-Wing as a product would have about 12% market share - so 5 times less that GW.

And i suspect if the survey had asked what percentage of your sales come from GW products the figures would have been incredibly different - but that isn't what the survey asked.

As an example, my local independant store sells a ton of X-Wing stuff and has a regular tournament every couple of weeks with a regular gaming group of about 100 players. This is far in excess of the local 40K or AoS community and sales of the core X-Wing set massively outstrip Dark Vengeance or Age of Sigmar.

However 80% of the store's sales come from GW products when you factor in peripheral items.

My point is that the survey didn't collect enough sufficient data to make the claim that X-Wing is the number 1 selling game in the US. It may very well be, but there is no way of knowing as the data it has collected is un-useable.

And also: "And, preemptively, no, your local FLGS' s manager's small talk confiding in you doesn't count as proof for the industry in the whole of the UK let alone the rest of the world" - That's exactly what this survey has done though isn't it - which is the whole point of my argument.

Does that mean all those years of 40K at #1 should be disregarded as well due to the same factors?

In this particular survey? Yes.

My whole argument isn't whether or not GW is outselling other manufacturers etc, my argument is that the survey itself is flawed.

StraightSilver wrote:
In this particular survey? Yes.

My whole argument isn't whether or not GW is outselling other manufacturers etc, my argument is that the survey itself is flawed.

Do they outsell other paint manufacturers then?

StraightSilver wrote:

 warboss wrote:

StraightSilver wrote:
GW's market share in the tabletop market is somewhere in the region of 70%, which means that there is no way if you take all sales figures into account that X-Wing is outselling Warhammer.

Can you post a link to the verifiable third party source of your 70% number for the industry? Because all I see is someone criticizing his own extrapolated "flaws" in the only industry publication source we have her simultaneously pulling a number out of a bretonnian horse's rear. And, preemptively, no, your local FLGS' s manager's small talk confiding in you doesn't count as proof for the industry in the whole of the UK let alone the rest of the world.

The figures are quite old (2010) but to be honest not a huge amount has changed since then but in 2010 the world wide sales figures for tabletop wargaming was estimated to be around £150 million. GW's turnover for that year was £126 million. That put GW's market share at 84%.

GW has claimed it's market share to remain consistently at 80%, I used a conservative 70% because I feel in the face of the rising popularity of board games such as Zombicide, X-Wing, Drop Zone etc has no doubt dented that.

Listen.. I'm not trying to pick on you but your stance is deeply flawed and you're not holding yourself or GW to the same standards that you are ICV2. I asked you for a third party link and you repeated an unsubstantiated supposed first party biased statement from a company NOTORIOUS for boasting that they don't do any market research. Even IF gw said they have a 70%-80% market share, they have a stake in the game and are certainly not above spinning bad numbers to make them look better despite talking from a point of complete ignorance.

I'm not saying it's impossible that they claimed that but where is the link? Where is the third party verification of that supposed wild guess? Since they're proud they don't do market research, it can only be a guess. Secondly, the info is WAAAAAY out of date. You know what came out since 2010? Xwing for instance.. and kickstarter's significant effect in gaming since 2012 (although they were technically started in 2009)... and a massive retail board game resurgence... and you, know, the 7 years worth of growth that the ICV article this thread is ostensibly about reported that GW's own financials have NOT shown apply to them. Thirdly, your data is almost completely useless without further details that might exist in the link you didn't post. Is the data for the entire HHHobby market since GW calls itself "the hobby" and made board games at that time? Or is it just for the even more niche minis game market? Does it even include the tens (or is it already hundreds?) of millions of USD that crowdfunding tabletop games has raised or is it just retail? How do they get the data about what other companies sell via retail from retailers and customers that they don't ask since they find market research otiose? Is it only for the UK as the proportion of indy stores to GW company stores is much lower than the US/NA data the ICV reports? Or is it worldwide?

Your number is unsubstantiated, deeply biased due to the source even if substantiated, severely lacking the necessary detail to see if it's even a tomato to apples comparison, and woefully out of date even if ALL of the preceeding points are corrected. The industry has CHANGED since 2010; your info from then is about as useful to us now as polling information from the 2010 US congressional races are to the current US presidential party primaries.

Fenrir Kitsune: you seem to be fixated on paint.

X-Wing is ranked number one in this survey purely on the basis that it is a self contained PRE-PAINTED boxed game.

The survey then compartes it to a product that requires PAINTING - therefore paint sales, which are an important component of the GW hobby as a whole, along with the actual miniatures and peripheral items needed should be included.

The argumant is that it is unfair to compare a pre-painted board game with a tabletop wargame.

Again it's comparing apples and oranges.

Paint sales as well as miniature sales are an important thing to include when looking at sales of warhammer which this survey did not do.

StraightSilver wrote:
Fenrir Kitsune: you seem to be fixated on paint.

You brought it up!

StraightSilver wrote:
Fenrir Kitsune: you seem to be fixated on paint.

X-Wing is ranked number one in this survey purely on the basis that it is a self contained PRE-PAINTED boxed game.

The survey then compartes it to a product that requires PAINTING - therefore paint sales, which are an important component of the GW hobby as a whole, along with the actual miniatures and peripheral items needed should be included.

The argumant is that it is unfair to compare a pre-painted board game with a tabletop wargame.

Again it's comparing apples and oranges.

Paint sales as well as miniature sales are an important thing to include when looking at sales of warhammer which this survey did not do.

Wasn't aware that GW needed to be painted to be played and enjoyed. I feel bad for the guys in my club with their weekly sad experience of playing the gray legions. I will offer them a tissue.

I am also confused why you seem to harbor the belief that Xwing is a board game when GW's offerings are not. Neither has a board. There is no Park Place, no chute nor ladder. No farm to raise sheep on.

Both may have obstacles placed on a defined area of a table that is agreed upon as the "playing surface". Both require the use of miniatures to represent the physical location of units within the game. Both roll dice. I have not purchased a GW core box set in a couple years, so I am uncertain if measuring devices are included in that set...it maybe that the tape measure industry needs to be included in the broader "GW Hobby".

StraightSilver wrote:
Fenrir Kitsune: you seem to be fixated on paint.

X-Wing is ranked number one in this survey purely on the basis that it is a self contained PRE-PAINTED boxed game.

The survey then compartes it to a product that requires PAINTING - therefore paint sales, which are an important component of the GW hobby as a whole, along with the actual miniatures and peripheral items needed should be included.

The argumant is that it is unfair to compare a pre-painted board game with a tabletop wargame.

Again it's comparing apples and oranges.

Paint sales as well as miniature sales are an important thing to include when looking at sales of warhammer which this survey did not do.

I don't see the point you're trying to make?

Are you trying to argue that GW is bestest, despite for the first time this survey, regardless of its accuracy overall, has reported using the same criteria for some years, shows 40K isn't number 1?

Do you think somehow that GW having a larger share of a much smaller niche of the market than Asmodee somehow proves anything?

The reality is this. I played 40K. I now play X Wing. The money I spent on 40K models now is spent on X Wing. I bought Citadel paint, I now buy mostly Vallejo. While X Wing is my "main" game, every other game I've an interest in is a non GW one. My tools, brushes, green stuff and glue all come from non GW sources.

I am not alone.

This is why 40K, by any measure, including GW's own figures, is descending, whereas every other part of the industry is reporting growth.

You need to clarify your argument, because right now you're just throwing a bunch of numbers around that are either unverified or don't correlate we each other and claiming... something?

StraightSilver wrote:
Fenrir Kitsune: you seem to be fixated on paint.

X-Wing is ranked number one in this survey purely on the basis that it is a self contained PRE-PAINTED boxed game.

The survey then compartes it to a product that requires PAINTING - therefore paint sales, which are an important component of the GW hobby as a whole, along with the actual miniatures and peripheral items needed should be included.

The argumant is that it is unfair to compare a pre-painted board game with a tabletop wargame.

Again it's comparing apples and oranges.

Paint sales as well as miniature sales are an important thing to include when looking at sales of warhammer which this survey did not do.

The point you may have missed is that this is not a survey of hobby categories, it is a survey of what independent retailers and distributors say they are selling well.

This thread is starting to feel like a Kafka novel.

Everyone knows this is a crap survey. however, it is the only survey we have, and for years 40K was on top, with Warmachine and hordes close behind. The fact that those other games are doing so well is news, as older surveys used the same crappy methodology, so we really are comparing apples-to-apples.

Now, I know X-wing has way better distribution as you can walk into a big-box retail store and pick up the core box. GW hasn't had that level of penetration since LoTR days.

If you recall GW's reason for getting that license, they may have missed out by not tying up the Star Wars license too. If it was even available to them or they had the cash for it.

To me, it makes reasonable sense that you would see GW dropping off of ICV2 sales. Solid business move or not, GW has been moving further away from independent sales and focusing on their own B&M stores. This doesn't even consider the strength of their existing IP's, which could also (potentially) contribute to lower sales.

 -Loki- wrote:

Mario wrote:

 Cave_Dweller wrote:
The X-Wing game...I've seen this in every gaming store I've been to. But I've never actually seen anyone playing the game or even heard people talking about it.

Could it be that the game is a bit easier to play at home than a traditional tabletop wargame. Some of the buyers might be more board game-ish people who just play at home and are not even used to playing at stores.

It's still got list building with some not so simple synergies and uses terrain (asteroids), requiring a 3x3 space to play on.

Most people use two dimensional terrain cut-outs, and 3'x3' fits on a typical dinner table. It's much easier to play at home that most tabletop wargames.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

StraightSilver wrote:
The point is the figures relate to "non-collectable" board games.

These are self contained boxed games with no peripheral sales (minis, paints, rule books etc).

You are laboring under a misapprehension of what a "non-collectable" game is.

A collectible game is something like MTG or the old Hero Clicks where you purchased a box/package of random stuff not knowing what's in them.

Non-collectible refers to games where you specifically purchase what you want.

 Accolade wrote:
To me, it makes reasonable sense that you would see GW dropping off of ICV2 sales. Solid business move or not, GW has been moving further away from independent sales and focusing on their own B&M stores. This doesn't even consider the strength of their existing IP's, which could also (potentially) contribute to lower sales.

Except we know for a fact that the spread across their 3 channels, ie direct, indirect and online, hasn't changed that dramatically, despite their flashy £4m website.

It might be their desire, but it's a long way from the reality.

StraightSilver wrote:

The entirity of Asmodee market share in the tabletop / board game market last year was 24%. This means that X-Wing's market share was below 24%. GW's market share in the tabletop market is somewhere in the region of 70%, which means that there is no way if you take all sales figures into account that X-Wing is outselling Warhammer.

All the number crunching I've seen has GW at being closer to 5% of market share than 70%. For a start, you're conflating GW's global annual revenue with US sales. So you're out by a factor of about 3 already. So that's about 25%

You're also using a figure from GW (who do no research) from before the explosion in the industry, where a huge number of companies have come into existence (including 3 of the games in the top 5) and the estimated 20% year-on-year growth, so the market is at least twice as big as in 2010. So you're down to 12.5%

Then you're missing the literal thousands of small traders that don't use the US indy chain.

Now no-one is arguing that GW is the bigger company, but the market is much bigger than you are assuming, as there's all of the historics companies producing plastic kits (so there's plenty of demand). In most industries the biggest player, whilst being many times bigger than it's rivals, still tends to be under 25% of the market.

So if Warhammer (40k et. al.) is not a non-collectable miniatures game then what is it?

I have always considered it a non-collectable miniatures game as collectable miniatures games generally come in blind boosters. With Heroclix I never know what I'm getting until I open the box, hence it forces me to collect until I get a pull that I want; the converse of that is that with a game like Warhammer or Warmachine I buy a box and I know what the contents of that box will be, no need to collect more than is necessary for my purposes.

Is there a different definition that I am not aware of as to what constitutes a non-collectable v. a collectable miniatures game?

xraytango wrote:
So if Warhammer (40k et. al.) is not a non-collectable miniatures game then what is it?

I have always considered it a non-collectable miniatures game as collectable miniatures games generally come in blind boosters. With Heroclix I never know what I'm getting until I open the box, hence it forces me to collect until I get a pull that I want; the converse of that is that with a game like Warhammer or Warmachine I buy a box and I know what the contents of that box will be, no need to collect more than is necessary for my purposes.

Is there a different definition that I am not aware of as to what constitutes a non-collectable v. a collectable miniatures game?

Only if your trying to make the data say something else.

StraightSilver wrote:

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true.

How do you know it isn't true?

I find it very easy to imagine that X Wing could massively outsell 40K in the past year or two.

X WIng is a much more accessible game in terms of the time, money and space needed to get playing really fun games. $100 gets you a starter box and several more ships for a decent fleet. No modelling is needed. You can learn the rules in an afternoon. The fluff is immediately obvious and massively popular. Etc. etc.

There could be several million men and boys who have bought X Wing stuff, compared to maybe 100,000 40K enthusiasts.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

StraightSilver wrote:

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true.

How do you know it isn't true?

He doesn't.

So the minority consensus is that the top selling line needs to be citadel hobby supplies?

...............Closely followed by X wing...........

The way I see it, there could easily be 1 million people in the US who spent average $75 on X Wing in the past year. This would be a starter box and a couple of expansion boxes per person.

GW's annual turnover is about $170 million worldwide. The USA is roughly one third of that. This would mean that last year's sales of X Wing could easily be larger than 40K in the USA.

Obviously this is a kind of Fermi estimation, but do the basic assumptions seem about right?

Is it really that hard to think that a movie people have been waiting years for, from a 30+ year old beloved brand that broke TWO BILLION at the box office* might propel the associated game ahead of the previous market leader?

*(In the US alone I believe)

 jonolikespie wrote:
Is it really that hard to think that a movie people have been waiting years for, from a 30+ year old beloved brand that broke TWO BILLION at the box office* might propel the associated game ahead of the previous market leader?

*(In the US alone I believe)

But but but GW has 30+ years of history, and a NY times bestseller series and there was a 40k based film. Fans of Gw have been waiting years for a decent game or two.

Therefore Warhammer should be the no 1 game, screw what game stores say sells best.

 jonolikespie wrote:
Is it really that hard to think that a movie people have been waiting years for, from a 30+ year old beloved brand that broke TWO BILLION at the box office* might propel the associated game ahead of the previous market leader?

*(In the US alone I believe)

GW fanatics will only see GW. End of.

I'm shocked to see that the growth in the hobby wasn't led by Age of Sigmar.

 Mr. Burning wrote:

But but but GW has 30+ years of history, and a NY times bestseller series and there was a 40k based film. Fans of Gw have been waiting years for a decent game or two.

 Kirasu wrote:
I'm shocked to see that the growth in the hobby wasn't led by Age of Sigmar.

Guys, let's stick to the topic and not make lots of slightly spammy posts consisting of just an Orkmoticon.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Guys, let's stick to the topic and not make lots of slightly spammy posts consisting of just an Orkmoticon.

Its not spammy at all, I could have just said that "I agree with this" but an emoticon was easier.

 Kirasu wrote:
I'm shocked to see that the growth in the hobby wasn't led by Age of Sigmar.

At the end times crops certainly withered and died.

Aside from all of this..

Great news that the hobby is growing, more people getting into it, greater range of games than ever before. It's something we really should be thankful of, regardless of which card you carry.

In the modern world of 'BLAMBLAMBLAM/Michael Bay/instant gratification' and the immense sales of computer games, it's good to see there is still room for this kind of growth and the pastime of tabletop/miniature hobbies is still going strong.

Well said, that man!

 Pacific wrote:
Aside from all of this..

Great news that the hobby is growing, more people getting into it, greater range of games than ever before. It's something we really should be thankful of, regardless of which card you carry.

In the modern world of 'BLAMBLAMBLAM/Michael Bay/instant gratification' and the immense sales of computer games, it's good to see there is still room for this kind of growth and the pastime of tabletop/miniature hobbies is still going strong.

Is it really growing or was the growth purely Star Wars related? As others said, having a major blockbuster that got people excited was the best marketing the game could have hoped for.

People were insisting that the tabletop miniature game market was growing at the same rate the rest of the hobby market was till ICv2 started breaking out growth according to hobby. Then we saw the industry was growing at 20 - 25% and non-collectible miniatures was flat. Are these people who are picking up X-wing now going to move onto games where they have to assemble and paint their figures? I'm worried a lot of these players are "BLAMBLAMBLAM/Michael Bay/instant gratification" and the idea of anything that isn't ready to play out of the box or booster is not worth it. Will they pick up games like Infinity, WMH, or even 40k?

I agree with you that a lot of people probably won't move on from Star Wars X Wing to other miniature games. The same is true of Games Workshop games.

A lot of them won't, but some of them will, so that's great. Even if none of them move on to more traditional table top miniatures, they are great for the industry. Just like Magic players, they'll show up for events at local stores, buy stuff there, and help keep the lights on for us all to play whatever games we enjoy.

 silent25 wrote:

Is it really growing or was the growth purely Star Wars related?

A distinction without a difference?

Growth is growth, we might be seeing a SW bubble, but when/if that bursts, there'll still be a greater number of people exposed to the wider tabletop gaming hobby than previously.

 Azreal13 wrote:


A distinction without a difference?

Growth is growth, we might be seeing a SW bubble, but when/if that bursts, there'll still be a greater number of people exposed to the wider tabletop gaming hobby than previously.

I don't think it will crash like the LotR bubble did for GW. Disney have, more or less, planed yearly movies (either the mainline Skywalker saga or the anthology side stories) for the Star Wars franchise. People will try the game and some will keep playing while others won't. Whatever baseline sales are/were established won't just randomly crash without somebody doing something really stupid.

That would be my inclination too, hence the "if" as well as the when, even if X Wing starts to falter, there's huge scope to just move on to the next thing once SW fans are on board with the idea of playing games based on the IP

We've still never had a bona fide tabletop SW game that's really done the licence justice IMO, a small scale (5-10mm) game with all the walkers, atmospheric craft etc would be great!

How about a 28mm dungeon/Death Star crawl? Trash compacters full of dianogas and everything. You might even find what scraps remain of Captain Phasma's potential...

I can safely say that last year the board game market market was around 135 million in the US.

Rpg market was about +35 million.

All card games was close to 880 million.

All of these factors were up from 2014. And according to the information that I have acquired so far all indexes are higher than last year.

Side bar. Also I use some of these indicators to how I look in near future expenditures in my local sphere of influence.

My references are proprietary. My IP attorney is $690 per hour. Every time I make a phone call to him it is $100 per 10 minutes. Real marketing research cost real money in yearly subscriptions and I am certainly not going to give freebies to fanbois who shout Litanies of Hate without no merrit of what they are talking about.

I know what I know is because I put money into my research in anything I am thinking of getting into. I have similar thoughts to this person who runs a game store whom I respect his viewpoint. Because he -is- a successful business man in a area that is not a expensive place (all around) to be in.

http://blackdiamondgames.blogspot.com/2016/02/recession-thoughts-tradecraft.html

Now what all this means is that I have a better understanding on how much Bullsheet being flung by corporations selling whatever product there is that they are willing to hawk.
This includes companies like Game Workshop and their ill attempts on hiding what exactly they are doing with their revenue as well as how exactly healthy their company really is.

The information of what ICv2 is an (simplified) accurate indicator to be used to get a "overall" heath of this section of the gaming market.

I personally like the social hobbies over video games so if the trends continue I will be happy. I'm already investing a monetary amount to explore creating content in this market. I am venturing into the board game arena and also into the RPG arena as well as I can suffer long term losses if need be.

But in 7 years we are seeing those changes and the reason why are purely economic ones. When the market is good for the average person they tend to purchase what they considered luxury products and when the market is weak the average person purchases what they consider to be a value asset.

In general "hard copy" games are considered a "valued" asset that people are wiling to pay for.

StraightSilver wrote:
The figures don't include miniature sales at all, and that's my point. They only included Games Workshop starter sets, the figures are for non-collectable boxed games.

If you're claiming this then X-Wing's figures would also include only starter sets. So we're back to the beginning. Games Workshop is behind X-Wing in starter sets sold.

But as Arschbombe says, the measure is miniature games not non-collectable boxed games, so does include all the additional products.

 Vermis wrote:
How about a 28mm dungeon/Death Star crawl? Trash compacters full of dianogas and everything. You might even find what scraps remain of Captain Phasma's potential...

If I remember correctly the cartoon series (Clone Wars) had an episode where they need to infiltrate an impenetrable fortress (or prison?) called, I think, the citadel (can't remember it anymore?). One could base a nice Warhammer Quest type of co-op game on that idea, with a randomized dungeon where you select your infiltration group (one or two Jedi, Clone Trooper, Droids, mercenaries) and try to break in/out. You could even make expansion packs for the outside parts of the fortress/dungeon, I think the planet was all lava-y or make an expansion to shift the fortress to a ice planet, more caves, or different types of dungeon layouts or rooms (and each could come with more new traps, opponents, events, and loot).

Or was the dungeon/Death Star crawl comment a tongue-in-cheek reference to Imperial Assault?

Somebody get StraightSilver to a safe space!

Someone has posted a contrary opinion and we need to hustle up.

We have a Code: #triggered over here!

I found my kids (9&10) enjoyed X-wing more than 40k even with getting them involved in "some assembly required".

The models keep rolling in and they are inexpensive enough to pick up a few here and there and still have some money for Armada... GW is getting the shaft at my house lately on hobby dollars.

Heck, I am hunting down stuff for ground vehicles (AT-AT, AT-ST, atmospheric fighter / snow speeder) for a low altitude furball.

I can play good pickup games!

I can make scenarios and people do not look at me like this:


Which I WOULD get if making one for 40k.

40k is huge and dark, X-wing is fast and fun... even with Darth Vader around I have difficulty trying to stop smiling.

 Pacific wrote:
Aside from all of this..

Great news that the hobby is growing, more people getting into it, greater range of games than ever before. It's something we really should be thankful of, regardless of which card you carry.

In the modern world of 'BLAMBLAMBLAM/Michael Bay/instant gratification' and the immense sales of computer games, it's good to see there is still room for this kind of growth and the pastime of tabletop/miniature hobbies is still going strong.

I've got nephews that are 12-13 in age. They have video games (because these days what kids don't) but love tabletop games and board games. The 13 year old is dead keen on Infinity, regularly points out rules mistakes my brother and I make, and even went to a store tournament with us. The younger isn't so engrossed, but my brother says they take his Malifaux stuff and play each other.

I make bloody sure I encourage this. The Christmas before last they got Operation Icestorm from me and my fiancee. Last Christmas they got Zombicide season 1. Their birthdays are coming up and knowing their interest in Malifaux (and my brother is buying them a crew each), I'm giving them some Malifaux stuff.

I get that video games are fun, but this hobby is just so much better for kids than video games, IMO.

 Talizvar wrote:
40k is huge and dark, X-wing is fast and fun... even with Darth Vader around I have difficulty trying to stop smiling.

Aeiii! It's the Joker!

Somebody call Batman!

And, once again, Warhammer/Age of Sigmar is not among the top 5.... I think that I may die of not-surprise.

The Auld Grump - for what it is worth, my current favorite miniatures game isn't on the list either (we are starting a new Kings of War league tonight...).

Its not really surprising to see xwing in this position, it has 3 cross overs for its buy in, hobbyist of wargaming, general board gamers (as its easy to play n relatively cheap to start up), model collectors or just people who want a cheapish star wars item (im sure loads of people have bought xwing that never intend to play the game they just want a space ship from star wars). GW doesnt have that cross platform appeal to the same extend.

It's not like GW have had over 30 years to build that sort of cross platform appeal is it?

Perhaps they don't have an IP with quite the same weight behind it, but there's absolutely no reason they couldn't have very firmly made in roads into 3 of the 4 customer types you mention. (One could even argue that SW fans are predisposed to have a little interest in 40K items, correctly marketed.)

FFG had a head start in IP terms, but they've taken GW to school in terms of how you leverage that IP into a successful product.

GW had a few great opportunities to draw in the videogame crowd with Dawn of War, DoW2, and Space marine, but they totally failed to leverage that too. I mean we finally got a Sternguard kit that could make the characters from the Space Marine game what, three or four years after the game came out and the studio making it had to shut down?

And of course there is now (finally, I've wanted this for YEARS now) a Total War: Warhammer game coming. It looks amazing, and a great way to get people into the game, Total War is a popular, long running serious with so much more reach to introduce new people to Fantasy than GW's 'advertizing'.

And it is set in the world GW recently destroyed, based on a now discontinued game.

 Azreal13 wrote:


A distinction without a difference?

Growth is growth, we might be seeing a SW bubble, but when/if that bursts, there'll still be a greater number of people exposed to the wider tabletop gaming hobby than previously.

Except that do we want a situation where there is only one single dominant game at the stores and clubs? People have been stating in the past how the decline of GW is a good thing as it allows diversity into the hobby and that there isn't a single dominant game that overshadows all other games anymore? Now that X-wing is surging, will we be replacing every table with 40k on it with X-wing instead? Would like to see the hobby grow across the board, not have a single limited game just overtake everything instead and smothering other games.

Having x wing in the lead does not equal x wing having 99% market share.

Another of the good things about X WIng is that because it's pretty easy and cheap to pick up and play, it's pretty easy to put down again and play a different pretty easy and cheap game.

You mean like how the Wii outsold the PS3 and 360 by being every hardcore gamers 2nd system, and every family's only one?

Small buy in and smaller total purchases mean that X-Wing must have a lot more buyers than 40k.

Honestly, I think that X-Wing has taken over the 12 year olds crowd- a market that GW hasn't been getting of late, since the buy in for 40k or even AoS is still very high compared to other miniatures games.

Kilkrazy wrote:Remember that the ICV2 survey doesn't include any of GW's own sales results through their shops or web site.

However if the market as a whole has experienced further growth, it seems likely that GW has been slipping bacl again, given their static results.

Sure, ICv2 represents North American retailers.

GW stores are not very common in North America. I could drive for nine hours to the closest one to me, for example (whereas, my town has four game stores within a fifteen minute drive). I went ahead and tried out GW's store finder, and put in a 50 mile radius. It did let me know about the store that is a days' drive away, but it also gave me fifteen independent retailers within 50 miles of me (there were even some on the list that I haven't been to).

I honestly doubt that including them would make much difference -especially since GW has reported large losses in their retail arm for the time frame we're dealing with, a time in which independent hobby retailers are reporting their seventh year of growth (meaning their exclusive products might be doing worse than the industry as a whole).

GW online sales might actually make a difference, that one is harder to tell.

The big news here is that ICv2 has gathered this data twice a year for many years now- and every time they've done it in the past, 40k has been at the very top.

This number might not represent 40k slipping, because there is plenty of reason to believe that X-Wing sales shot up alongside the movie buzz. It might also represent 40k slipping, though.

This isn't the End of GW, by any stretch. But it is a sign that they need to try something new.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
ANOTHER HUGE THING:

These numbers DO NOT INCLUDE KICKSTARTER!

If KS is taking sales away from hobby retailers, it isn't showing in the 7th year of consecutive growth (with some KS projects making the top 10 board games).



edit- added my GW store finder experiment.

I think we are past Peak Kickstarter, but there's no doubt it grew quickly from nothing and soaked up a lot of hobby dollars over the past seven years.

What I'm saying is, I think that Kickstarter has helped grow the industry rather than sink it. Some retailers keep bemoaning KS as if company's are stealing from them by seeking funding this way, but it turns out that:

1- The retailers report growth for every year in which KS has existed.
2- At least some KS games do sell through retail channels just fine (I noticed Blood Rage on the top 10 this year, and I've seen Boss Monster and Zombicide make it in the past).

CMON games seem to be selling just fine through retail channels- despite their being the most KS exclusive and KS discounts company out there.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Another of the good things about X WIng is that because it's pretty easy and cheap to pick up and play, it's pretty easy to put down again and play a different pretty easy and cheap game.

One of my players pointed out that because the models are prepainted, he doesn't have the attachment to them that he does for a game like Warhammer - so swapping to another game would be easier. (That wouldn't work for me - I'd still end up painting them....)

The Auld Grump, more of a Star Trek TOS man, me....


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 odinsgrandson wrote:
What I'm saying is, I think that Kickstarter has helped grow the industry rather than sink it. Some retailers keep bemoaning KS as if company's are stealing from them by seeking funding this way, but it turns out that:

1- The retailers report growth for every year in which KS has existed.
2- At least some KS games do sell through retail channels just fine (I noticed Blood Rage on the top 10 this year, and I've seen Boss Monster and Zombicide make it in the past).

CMON games seem to be selling just fine through retail channels- despite their being the most KS exclusive and KS discounts company out there.

Part of that also depends on the retailer - I know of at least one retailer that refuses to carry any product that was launched through Kickstarter. (Because... he is... an idiot. Making a potential customer go online to look for products online does not help his bottom line.)

Another joined in and promoted the original Bones Kickstarter - picking up the retail pack that was offered, way back then, and selling the bits off before the package even came in.

Both have been in the business for decades.

One is struggling, the other is booming.

Strangely enough, the one that supports Kickstarter is the one that is booming....

The Auld Grump - not just because of Kickstarter, mind....

Being good to your customers makes a huge difference, and part of that is stocking things that they like. I've seen game store owners refuse to order in things that customers are willing to pre-pay for because they don't like that particular rules system.

For my part, I don't feel like I owe anything to someone just because they own a store. To be an FLGS you must at least be:

Friendly- part of being a decent human being, and goes a long way to illicit my support
Local - You need to be near enough to me that it isn't a huge hassle to go to your store
Game- you need to stock the games that I play. I mean, really.
Store- you need to be willing to sell me the things that I want to buy.


I've seen combinations such as:
FGS - fifty minute drive
FLS - won't stock games that I want to play
LGS -not friendly
FLG - won't keep stock of anything- we're just supposed to order everything from them as if we were ordering online- but great gaming space

Maybe that last one has a better business model than I expect, because they seem to stay open with no stock.

 odinsgrandson wrote:
Being good to your customers makes a huge difference, and part of that is stocking things that they like. I've seen game store owners refuse to order in things that customers are willing to pre-pay for because they don't like that particular rules system.

For my part, I don't feel like I owe anything to someone just because they own a store. To be an FLGS you must at least be:

Friendly- part of being a decent human being, and goes a long way to illicit my support
Local - You need to be near enough to me that it isn't a huge hassle to go to your store
Game- you need to stock the games that I play. I mean, really.
Store- you need to be willing to sell me the things that I want to buy.


I've seen combinations such as:
FGS - fifty minute drive
FLS - won't stock games that I want to play
LGS -not friendly
FLG - won't keep stock of anything- we're just supposed to order everything from them as if we were ordering online- but great gaming space

Maybe that last one has a better business model than I expect, because they seem to stay open with no stock.

Oh, he's definitely an FLGS - except when he gets a chip on his shoulder.

He refuses to carry Kings of War, Reaper, and Games Workshop. He will special order them, but will complain about the companies when you ask him to.

But he is the place to go for WARMACHINE.

Or was, now that Privateer Press has a Kickstarter... that may change....

The new Warhammer store, on the other hand... is not doing so well.... People come in, look at the stuff, go 'oohhh!' then look at the prices and go 'noooo!'

The Auld Grump

Over the past 26 years due to mergers and distributors going out of business, the distribution business of selling games (and comics) are a select few. Kickstarter And other crow sourcing groups are more or less a direct result of this consolidation of the "middle man". There are a lot of games that do not make it to the retailers because of the demands that are placed coming from the distributors (and publishers) of today.

What iTunes did to the music industry, Crowd source is doing to the entertainment industry. Overall I think it is a good thing.

If you want to succeed in this world you must know everything about "your sphere of influence" and what can you influence. A successful retailer will know what sells in his area and what does not. He will also try out new possibilities to increase sales. One that does not stagnates and eventually over time will fail.


For the average person who wants an alternative to video games we are having a renaissance with options. Whether it comes from a brick&mortar, internet business, or crowd sourcing, we now have choices of games that we did not have 12+ years ago.

And again that is a good thing.

I would also like to point out "shapeways" or 3D printing has an effect.
I am supplementing many miniatures games with creations from there.
I think it does not have a huge impact now, but I can see it being more telling in the future.

 Adam LongWalker wrote:
Over the past 26 years due to mergers and distributors going out of business, the distribution business of selling games (and comics) are a select few. Kickstarter And other crow sourcing groups are more or less a direct result of this consolidation of the "middle man". There are a lot of games that do not make it to the retailers because of the demands that are placed coming from the distributors (and publishers) of today.

What iTunes did to the music industry, Crowd source is doing to the entertainment industry. Overall I think it is a good thing.

If you want to succeed in this world you must know everything about "your sphere of influence" and what can you influence. A successful retailer will know what sells in his area and what does not. He will also try out new possibilities to increase sales. One that does not stagnates and eventually over time will fail.


For the average person who wants an alternative to video games we are having a renaissance with options. Whether it comes from a brick&mortar, internet business, or crowd sourcing, we now have choices of games that we did not have 12+ years ago.

And again that is a good thing.

Heh, I have made some amazingly similar posts.

In addition, a lot of smaller game companies used to rely on getting loans from banks in order to produce more product.

Then the banks changed the way they handled business loans, causing a lot of the smallish, or even not-so-smallish game companies to fold.

An example is what happened to West End Games.

Kickstarter is picking up where the banks left off, again allowing smaller companies the cash flow that they need to produce product.

The Auld Grump

 Talizvar wrote:
I would also like to point out "shapeways" or 3D printing has an effect.
I am supplementing many miniatures games with creations from there.
I think it does not have a huge impact now, but I can see it being more telling in the future.

Shapeways is interesting because it's allowing a lot of small creators to make and sell unusual models like modern warships, that aren't being done by any large companies. Such people could also make conversion parts and even complete figures. However, I don't see it growing beyond a boutique industry.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Shapeways is interesting because it's allowing a lot of small creators to make and sell unusual models like modern warships, that aren't being done by any large companies. Such people could also make conversion parts and even complete figures. However, I don't see it growing beyond a boutique industry.

I agree at the moment the models tend to cost more than if the original manufacturer were to get around to selling the product.
For my ground-war X-wing project I have been doing, the creator is even providing the cards and stand stat-card for printing out if wanted.

It would be conceivable to have "made to order" games.
I would say that a game could start as a 3D printed game and if demand ramps up alarmingly, then classic injection mold dies may be required (luckily they already have a 3D model to work with).

Shapeways is already printing in colour and in metals so there are few limitations there.
I think the only limitation is how the technology progresses and if it can catch up to the economy of scale injection molds provide.

What makes all this very exciting is that various publishing middle-men are bypassed which is what makes kickstarter a similarly compelling platform of it's own.

To me, the 3D printing is like a desktop printer. Resin and metal is like a sheet-fed printing press, and injection moulding is like web offset litho.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
To me, the 3D printing is like a desktop printer. Resin and metal is like a sheet-fed printing press, and injection moulding is like web offset litho.

Or, for the inexpensive at home 3D printers, like a lightbox, Linotype machine, straight rules, razor blades, and beeswax. (Yes, I have done work that way... about the time that Star Wars was amazing audiences.)

Which is not to say that I do not lust after a 3D printer... but then I also enjoyed working with a lightbox, Linotype machine, straight rules, razor blades, and beeswax....

The Auld Grump

I just think hardly anyone will have a need for a home printer. If you are a keen modeller and convertor like Insaniak, it will make sense as long as you also are good at 3D modelling. For everyone else, just take your model data file, bought off the internet or made for you by a 3D artist, down to the nearest print shopand have them print it for you.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I just think hardly anyone will have a need for a home printer. If you are a keen modeller and convertor like Insaniak, it will make sense as long as you also are good at 3D modelling. For everyone else, just take your model data file, bought off the internet or made for you by a 3D artist, down to the nearest print shop and have them print it for you.

Me, I look at the home 3D printers, and think 'Terrain', not 'Miniatures'.

Inorganic shapes help mitigate the weakness of the medium - and I am a heck of a lot better modeling 3D inorganics than I am at modeling, oh... hands, for example....

The Auld Grump, Lord and Lady, I suck at making hands....

Yeah, terrain is a great place for print your own stuff. I don't see them taking all that much business away from larger companies (and at the moment, an affordable home printer can't keep up with industry standards for quality).

3D printers are changing the industry, but it is mostly on the designers end of things. And by that, I mean it is easy to tell that all of GW's kits for the past few years have been digitally sculpted (there are signs).

Look all the good things FFlight is giving as prices for xwing tournaments.

https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/news/2016/1/27/system-open-spoils/