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I find it very easy to imagine that X Wing could massively outsell 40K in the past year or two.

X WIng is a much more accessible game in terms of the time, money and space needed to get playing really fun games. $100 gets you a starter box and several more ships for a decent fleet. No modelling is needed. You can learn the rules in an afternoon. The fluff is immediately obvious and massively popular. Etc. etc.

There could be several million men and boys who have bought X Wing stuff, compared to maybe 100,000 40K enthusiasts.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

StraightSilver wrote:

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true.

How do you know it isn't true?

He doesn't.

So the minority consensus is that the top selling line needs to be citadel hobby supplies?

...............Closely followed by X wing...........

The way I see it, there could easily be 1 million people in the US who spent average $75 on X Wing in the past year. This would be a starter box and a couple of expansion boxes per person.

GW's annual turnover is about $170 million worldwide. The USA is roughly one third of that. This would mean that last year's sales of X Wing could easily be larger than 40K in the USA.

Obviously this is a kind of Fermi estimation, but do the basic assumptions seem about right?

Is it really that hard to think that a movie people have been waiting years for, from a 30+ year old beloved brand that broke TWO BILLION at the box office* might propel the associated game ahead of the previous market leader?

*(In the US alone I believe)

 jonolikespie wrote:
Is it really that hard to think that a movie people have been waiting years for, from a 30+ year old beloved brand that broke TWO BILLION at the box office* might propel the associated game ahead of the previous market leader?

*(In the US alone I believe)

But but but GW has 30+ years of history, and a NY times bestseller series and there was a 40k based film. Fans of Gw have been waiting years for a decent game or two.

Therefore Warhammer should be the no 1 game, screw what game stores say sells best.

 jonolikespie wrote:
Is it really that hard to think that a movie people have been waiting years for, from a 30+ year old beloved brand that broke TWO BILLION at the box office* might propel the associated game ahead of the previous market leader?

*(In the US alone I believe)

GW fanatics will only see GW. End of.

I'm shocked to see that the growth in the hobby wasn't led by Age of Sigmar.

 Mr. Burning wrote:

But but but GW has 30+ years of history, and a NY times bestseller series and there was a 40k based film. Fans of Gw have been waiting years for a decent game or two.

 Kirasu wrote:
I'm shocked to see that the growth in the hobby wasn't led by Age of Sigmar.

Guys, let's stick to the topic and not make lots of slightly spammy posts consisting of just an Orkmoticon.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Guys, let's stick to the topic and not make lots of slightly spammy posts consisting of just an Orkmoticon.

Its not spammy at all, I could have just said that "I agree with this" but an emoticon was easier.

 Kirasu wrote:
I'm shocked to see that the growth in the hobby wasn't led by Age of Sigmar.

At the end times crops certainly withered and died.

Aside from all of this..

Great news that the hobby is growing, more people getting into it, greater range of games than ever before. It's something we really should be thankful of, regardless of which card you carry.

In the modern world of 'BLAMBLAMBLAM/Michael Bay/instant gratification' and the immense sales of computer games, it's good to see there is still room for this kind of growth and the pastime of tabletop/miniature hobbies is still going strong.

Well said, that man!

 Pacific wrote:
Aside from all of this..

Great news that the hobby is growing, more people getting into it, greater range of games than ever before. It's something we really should be thankful of, regardless of which card you carry.

In the modern world of 'BLAMBLAMBLAM/Michael Bay/instant gratification' and the immense sales of computer games, it's good to see there is still room for this kind of growth and the pastime of tabletop/miniature hobbies is still going strong.

Is it really growing or was the growth purely Star Wars related? As others said, having a major blockbuster that got people excited was the best marketing the game could have hoped for.

People were insisting that the tabletop miniature game market was growing at the same rate the rest of the hobby market was till ICv2 started breaking out growth according to hobby. Then we saw the industry was growing at 20 - 25% and non-collectible miniatures was flat. Are these people who are picking up X-wing now going to move onto games where they have to assemble and paint their figures? I'm worried a lot of these players are "BLAMBLAMBLAM/Michael Bay/instant gratification" and the idea of anything that isn't ready to play out of the box or booster is not worth it. Will they pick up games like Infinity, WMH, or even 40k?

I agree with you that a lot of people probably won't move on from Star Wars X Wing to other miniature games. The same is true of Games Workshop games.

A lot of them won't, but some of them will, so that's great. Even if none of them move on to more traditional table top miniatures, they are great for the industry. Just like Magic players, they'll show up for events at local stores, buy stuff there, and help keep the lights on for us all to play whatever games we enjoy.

 silent25 wrote:

Is it really growing or was the growth purely Star Wars related?

A distinction without a difference?

Growth is growth, we might be seeing a SW bubble, but when/if that bursts, there'll still be a greater number of people exposed to the wider tabletop gaming hobby than previously.

 Azreal13 wrote:


A distinction without a difference?

Growth is growth, we might be seeing a SW bubble, but when/if that bursts, there'll still be a greater number of people exposed to the wider tabletop gaming hobby than previously.

I don't think it will crash like the LotR bubble did for GW. Disney have, more or less, planed yearly movies (either the mainline Skywalker saga or the anthology side stories) for the Star Wars franchise. People will try the game and some will keep playing while others won't. Whatever baseline sales are/were established won't just randomly crash without somebody doing something really stupid.

That would be my inclination too, hence the "if" as well as the when, even if X Wing starts to falter, there's huge scope to just move on to the next thing once SW fans are on board with the idea of playing games based on the IP

We've still never had a bona fide tabletop SW game that's really done the licence justice IMO, a small scale (5-10mm) game with all the walkers, atmospheric craft etc would be great!

How about a 28mm dungeon/Death Star crawl? Trash compacters full of dianogas and everything. You might even find what scraps remain of Captain Phasma's potential...

I can safely say that last year the board game market market was around 135 million in the US.

Rpg market was about +35 million.

All card games was close to 880 million.

All of these factors were up from 2014. And according to the information that I have acquired so far all indexes are higher than last year.

Side bar. Also I use some of these indicators to how I look in near future expenditures in my local sphere of influence.

My references are proprietary. My IP attorney is $690 per hour. Every time I make a phone call to him it is $100 per 10 minutes. Real marketing research cost real money in yearly subscriptions and I am certainly not going to give freebies to fanbois who shout Litanies of Hate without no merrit of what they are talking about.

I know what I know is because I put money into my research in anything I am thinking of getting into. I have similar thoughts to this person who runs a game store whom I respect his viewpoint. Because he -is- a successful business man in a area that is not a expensive place (all around) to be in.

http://blackdiamondgames.blogspot.com/2016/02/recession-thoughts-tradecraft.html

Now what all this means is that I have a better understanding on how much Bullsheet being flung by corporations selling whatever product there is that they are willing to hawk.
This includes companies like Game Workshop and their ill attempts on hiding what exactly they are doing with their revenue as well as how exactly healthy their company really is.

The information of what ICv2 is an (simplified) accurate indicator to be used to get a "overall" heath of this section of the gaming market.

I personally like the social hobbies over video games so if the trends continue I will be happy. I'm already investing a monetary amount to explore creating content in this market. I am venturing into the board game arena and also into the RPG arena as well as I can suffer long term losses if need be.

But in 7 years we are seeing those changes and the reason why are purely economic ones. When the market is good for the average person they tend to purchase what they considered luxury products and when the market is weak the average person purchases what they consider to be a value asset.

In general "hard copy" games are considered a "valued" asset that people are wiling to pay for.

StraightSilver wrote:
The figures don't include miniature sales at all, and that's my point. They only included Games Workshop starter sets, the figures are for non-collectable boxed games.

If you're claiming this then X-Wing's figures would also include only starter sets. So we're back to the beginning. Games Workshop is behind X-Wing in starter sets sold.

But as Arschbombe says, the measure is miniature games not non-collectable boxed games, so does include all the additional products.

 Vermis wrote:
How about a 28mm dungeon/Death Star crawl? Trash compacters full of dianogas and everything. You might even find what scraps remain of Captain Phasma's potential...

If I remember correctly the cartoon series (Clone Wars) had an episode where they need to infiltrate an impenetrable fortress (or prison?) called, I think, the citadel (can't remember it anymore?). One could base a nice Warhammer Quest type of co-op game on that idea, with a randomized dungeon where you select your infiltration group (one or two Jedi, Clone Trooper, Droids, mercenaries) and try to break in/out. You could even make expansion packs for the outside parts of the fortress/dungeon, I think the planet was all lava-y or make an expansion to shift the fortress to a ice planet, more caves, or different types of dungeon layouts or rooms (and each could come with more new traps, opponents, events, and loot).

Or was the dungeon/Death Star crawl comment a tongue-in-cheek reference to Imperial Assault?

Somebody get StraightSilver to a safe space!

Someone has posted a contrary opinion and we need to hustle up.

We have a Code: #triggered over here!

I found my kids (9&10) enjoyed X-wing more than 40k even with getting them involved in "some assembly required".

The models keep rolling in and they are inexpensive enough to pick up a few here and there and still have some money for Armada... GW is getting the shaft at my house lately on hobby dollars.

Heck, I am hunting down stuff for ground vehicles (AT-AT, AT-ST, atmospheric fighter / snow speeder) for a low altitude furball.

I can play good pickup games!

I can make scenarios and people do not look at me like this:


Which I WOULD get if making one for 40k.

40k is huge and dark, X-wing is fast and fun... even with Darth Vader around I have difficulty trying to stop smiling.

 Pacific wrote:
Aside from all of this..

Great news that the hobby is growing, more people getting into it, greater range of games than ever before. It's something we really should be thankful of, regardless of which card you carry.

In the modern world of 'BLAMBLAMBLAM/Michael Bay/instant gratification' and the immense sales of computer games, it's good to see there is still room for this kind of growth and the pastime of tabletop/miniature hobbies is still going strong.

I've got nephews that are 12-13 in age. They have video games (because these days what kids don't) but love tabletop games and board games. The 13 year old is dead keen on Infinity, regularly points out rules mistakes my brother and I make, and even went to a store tournament with us. The younger isn't so engrossed, but my brother says they take his Malifaux stuff and play each other.

I make bloody sure I encourage this. The Christmas before last they got Operation Icestorm from me and my fiancee. Last Christmas they got Zombicide season 1. Their birthdays are coming up and knowing their interest in Malifaux (and my brother is buying them a crew each), I'm giving them some Malifaux stuff.

I get that video games are fun, but this hobby is just so much better for kids than video games, IMO.

 Talizvar wrote:
40k is huge and dark, X-wing is fast and fun... even with Darth Vader around I have difficulty trying to stop smiling.

Aeiii! It's the Joker!

Somebody call Batman!

And, once again, Warhammer/Age of Sigmar is not among the top 5.... I think that I may die of not-surprise.

The Auld Grump - for what it is worth, my current favorite miniatures game isn't on the list either (we are starting a new Kings of War league tonight...).