So the last few years have seen a few trends from GW with increasing costs. Solo models for the price of box sets, increasingly expensive starter kits and additional box sets which are also priced high.
More recently, we see the new Patrol sets are on track to replace the start collecting sets which already saw price rises, as well as the trend toward increasing books and supplements to sell more books.
A hobby succeeds by replacing lost hobbyists with more new ones, with the younger generation being the key target. GW try to mitigate this with kill team ideas but realistically we all joined for the main game and if they make it prohibitive to that generation, the longer term prospects will look poor.
The patrol boxes are by far the biggest worry for me however. Sure you get a little more in them, but it starts to hit a threshold where either it’s not realistically affordable, or parents will simply go against the idea of the hobby.
Also reset the clock. "It has officially been 0 days since someone asked if this "new" phenomenon of rising prices, weird box sets, and unusual marketing methods will hurt GW long term"
And no. There was a time, like maybe 15 years ago, when I said they needed to stop focusing on short term goals and get the long-game figured out. I um ... appear to have been wrong in that statement. People keep talking about this like it's a new thing. Fact is, since about mid 2nd ed on - this has been their MO so ... yeah, it's been a while. It's not a new thing, and they always seem to be able to pivot. For example, the short-term goals strategy nearly killed them in 7th. But they caught it, changed it, and ushered in what was essentially a 40k renaissance.
I personally feel that the over-focus on Marines that has been happening for the last 18 months or so (and no - for the next five people that respond to this and say "it's always been that way w/marines" it hasn't) could hurt them long term, but that's WAY long term and like I said - they always manage to pivot out of it. The IP is strong enough to withstand repeated batterings.
But that said, I await the eager posters jumping in to talk about 3D printing, alternative models etc etc ...
They're not hurting on anything because, if the people here are anything to go by, y'all will still buy it all, including the hilariously lopsided 5 Flayed Ones vs 5 Heavy Intercessors set.
But that said, I await the eager posters jumping in to talk about 3D printing, alternative models etc etc ...
You rang?
I do think 3d printing is very much a major way forward here, but how quickly it would eat GW's overinflated bottom line was unquestionably overestimated.
I personally feel that the over-focus on Marines that has been happening for the last 18 months or so (and no - for the next five people that respond to this and say "it's always been that way w/marines" it hasn't) could hurt them long term, but that's WAY long term and like I said - they always manage to pivot out of it. The IP is strong enough to withstand repeated batterings.
I'd been meaning to ask about that - I used to play what used to be called Vanilla Marines back in 3rd/4th and at the time I definitely didn't feel like GW was just endlessly tongue-bathing my posterior with rules and releases. I'd wondered if that was blindness born of Marine Privilege or if right now genuinely is the worst the Marine oversaturation has ever been.
As GW becomes more mainstream it will replace every lost hobbyist with hundreds of half interested bandwagoners who gravitate from one new thing to the next. They don't care about you, they want to sell marines to somebody who saw their tv show or played the video game.
I doubt it. They are flexible. And I've known a few people to start playing 40k these last few years. Parents tend to bring their kids in on it. I know I'm working on my son. Also, I find mid thirties nerds tend to pick it up who are still nerdy enough but now have the resources to play.
Also... judging by their stock, they are doing okay
People have been predicting the downfall of GW based on their business practices as long as I have been in the hobby. And yet somehow 45 year old GW is doing great in the middle of a pandemic by being GW.
I personally feel that the over-focus on Marines that has been happening for the last 18 months or so (and no - for the next five people that respond to this and say "it's always been that way w/marines" it hasn't) could hurt them long term, but that's WAY long term and like I said - they always manage to pivot out of it. The IP is strong enough to withstand repeated batterings.
I'd been meaning to ask about that - I used to play what used to be called Vanilla Marines back in 3rd/4th and at the time I definitely didn't feel like GW was just endlessly tongue-bathing my posterior with rules and releases. I'd wondered if that was blindness born of Marine Privilege or if right now genuinely is the worst the Marine oversaturation has ever been.
When did you start 3rd ed though?
If it was sometime after fall '98 - early '99? Then you simply missed seeing most of the generic SM releases for 3rd edition hit the shelves. All you might've seen were chapter specific kits - DA/BA/SW/something UM. But as you were playing generic marines & all your stuff was on the shelf, you likely didn't pay them much attention.
Same with 4th ed. The generic marine stuff from 3rd carried over. Oh sure, somewhere in there they re-made the tac squad (or was it the Devs?), re-made the termies, probably some new sculpts for some support character types (chaplains/apothicaries/etc)... but again, if you had them, you probably didn't care. Likewise for anything chapter specific. And then every now & then you'd get something generic like the drop pod in 4e.
So what's different now vs then? Why are you noticing it NOW? Well, easy. I've said this before, and I'm going to repeat it. With the Primaris stuff you're witnessing a slow & steady roll out of an entire product line.
Think about it. If the Primaris were their own brand new/stand-alone force (like the Sisters for ex)? GW would've dropped most of these kits on you in one massive go, spanning about 2-3 months. With misc stuff straggling in after that. Why? Because they wouldn't be a very functional army otherwise.
But while the Primaris are a new product line, they aren't a standalone force. So GW can stretch out their release without the units being unplayable. They don't need to drop it all on us at once. But at the same time they aren't going to spend 20 years building out the line ala where the classic marines have ended up.
*You can also choose to believe popular theory that the Primaris line was intended to replace the classic SM line but that that plan got altered if you like.
And this might come to pass. At the moment the Primaris pretty much do everything our classic marines do except drop pods, flyers, & whirlwinds. Give them another year or so/edition for those stragglers....
Racerguy180 wrote: As long as GW makes great minis, I will still buy them....
As long as GW makes terrible rules, I won't buy them....
Simple as that.
People put wayyyyyy to much value on mutable aspects of GW stuff.
Rules come and go, minis are forever.
Perhaps but while I like looking at a select few of my models, the vast majority of them are there to facilitate playing the game. Without the game, I have zero interest in buying models nor do I have any real motivation to paint them. Bad rules (in my case the entire edition being downright boring to play) ruins the ability to enjoy the game and with the current ruleset being something I despise playing, it becomes harder and harder to find people to play with. 8th/9th has essentially killed the hobby for me because of the core rules being so dreadfully unfulfilling.
There are probably a point where they could not go, like with price it can only be raised so much before it becomes impossible for players to get in.
Rules are fairly secondary I think and even if they influaince people, it’s the price and minis that are main point that could break it.
With a lot of big companies they can be fairly successful until they fail and need to fix everything or die.
But I actually think GW has seen this, if you look at the company as a whole, they have been neglecting 40k in favour of bring out more wide range of IP.
Even if 40 is still big, I think they are seeing lots of success for the fact they are keeping and bringing in lots of players from other backgrounds and hobby wants.
I have spent a lot more money on GW even if my 40k spending has dropped to almost nothing with my demon army being the only thing expanding for 40k in anyway.
Racerguy180 wrote: As long as GW makes great minis, I will still buy them....
As long as GW makes terrible rules, I won't buy them....
Simple as that.
People put wayyyyyy to much value on mutable aspects of GW stuff.
Rules come and go, minis are forever.
Perhaps but while I like looking at a select few of my models, the vast majority of them are there to facilitate playing the game. Without the game, I have zero interest in buying models nor do I have any real motivation to paint them. Bad rules (in my case the entire edition being downright boring to play) ruins the ability to enjoy the game and with the current ruleset being something I despise playing, it becomes harder and harder to find people to play with. 8th/9th has essentially killed the hobby for me because of the core rules being so dreadfully unfulfilling.
That sucks, I'm not playing 40k for the the game itself. It's just something cool to do with my fully painted minis other than sitting there looking pretty.
But I do understand the frustration with the game. All I can say is that if you can find like minded folks to play with, it's a godsend. If not it's a death knell.
You'd be surprised what you can do if both players are equally invested in having a good time telling a story with cool miniatures.
GW has changed business model, making it both cheaper and more expensive.
It used to be a business model like the other wargames, where you offer a certain amount of factions to the customer, and hope that one clicks with him and he baits.
They are now instead focusing on a model where most of the players are raked in with marine factions (reason why we now have 11 of them). Marines are dirty cheap right now. Putting together a marine list is easy both on wallet and on brushes.
As long as GW keeps low the cost of the marine factions, the cost to access the game stays low.
At the same time, they provide stunningly beatiful models for non-marine factions and interesting lore. Non-marine factions are there to offer a second faction to marine players, and for that reason they can be much more expensive. They hope that some marine players get hooked into those.
TLDR: GWs ideal customer comes for the marines and stays for the non-marines.
Tycho wrote: There was a time, like maybe 15 years ago, when I said they needed to stop focusing on short term goals and get the long-game figured out. I um ... appear to have been wrong in that statement.
Pardon? You were dead on--GW underwent massive reform in business strategy and how they interacted with the community in 2016. There was a sizable move towards long-term thinking. It's just the last couple years things that progress has been eroded.
GW has the advantage that they have several games/product lines to carry them
they can afford to screw one over for short therm gains while keeping the other one for the long term benefit
and than change them around
already in the past there was a cycle between Fantasy and 40k with one always being cheaper with the better rules than that game goes into modus of "short term profit" while the other one gets a new Edition and they changed place
just did not worked out well with AoS 1st Edition as it was too expensive and rules were not better than 40k either (but this was corrected very fast)
that GW added back other games to the main line is for the reason to keep the players with GW even if they are upset with the main line
"40k is too expensive while the rules are bad and you still are pissed about Fantasy so don't even look at AoS?
play BloodBowl, Warcry or Warhammer Underworlds, good rules, great community, and less expensive!
no need to even look what other companies might offer, don't quit the hobby (not the miniatures games hobby but the hobby of giving money to GW)"
CEO Kasen wrote: I'd been meaning to ask about that - I used to play what used to be called Vanilla Marines back in 3rd/4th and at the time I definitely didn't feel like GW was just endlessly tongue-bathing my posterior with rules and releases. I'd wondered if that was blindness born of Marine Privilege or if right now genuinely is the worst the Marine oversaturation has ever been.
Marines have always been the poster boys and always had priority with releases during a new edition, which makes all the complaining about the Marine books coming out first in 9th extra weird since that's almost always how things go.
HOWEVER, this situation of 60+ releases and 3 Codexes in 3 years for the army, not to mention the endless supplements, is truly unprecedented. There is nothing to compare it to in previous editions and release cycles. Hell, in 3 years the Marine range has practically doubled in size and it was already one of the larger ones, but now the disparity between it and everything else is just absurd.
Questions about the long term viability of such a model are incredibly valid because previously it took GW around 30 years to reach peak bloat with oldmarines, whereas the Primaris range has basically reached the same point after 3. And even then you can still see the holes in the range which just points to it all being poorly planned out. But if they're already reaching the end of what they can logically do with Primaris, where do they go next? What fills the next 3-5 years? We can joke but there really are only so many different kinds of Intercessors and bolt weapons with silly names that can be made.
Also anecdotal, but at my LGS apparently sales of the Necron and Marine Codexes were pretty equal, whereas the Necrons have actually been beating Marines in model sales. And I live in an area with a ton of Marine players too. A lot of them have also expressed the rate of releases for the army is too much to keep up with and outside of specific things (like BGV) many of them are distinctly underwhelmed by many of the new kits and not too enthusiastic about adding them to their armies.
Spoletta wrote: GW has changed business model, making it both cheaper and more expensive.
Spoiler:
It used to be a business model like the other wargames, where you offer a certain amount of factions to the customer, and hope that one clicks with him and he baits.
They are now instead focusing on a model where most of the players are raked in with marine factions (reason why we now have 11 of them). Marines are dirty cheap right now. Putting together a marine list is easy both on wallet and on brushes.
As long as GW keeps low the cost of the marine factions, the cost to access the game stays low.
At the same time, they provide stunningly beatiful models for non-marine factions and interesting lore. Non-marine factions are there to offer a second faction to marine players, and for that reason they can be much more expensive. They hope that some marine players get hooked into those.
TLDR: GWs ideal customer comes for the marines and stays for the non-marines.
So this change would've occurred sometime during RT?
Because everything you're describing save SM chapters with separate rules( and I think THAT started with my SW in the pages of White Dwarf), has been going on longer than I've been playing (closing days of RT & on).
this was also the time were GW decided to just update 3rd instead of the full re-work that was initially planned, as well as make changes to Fantasy to increase the models needed instead of fixing rules
alextroy wrote: People have been predicting the downfall of GW based on their business practices as long as I have been in the hobby. And yet somehow 45 year old GW is doing great in the middle of a pandemic by being GW.
People don't realize just how much whales spend. For every Johnny that quits cause the SC! box went up 10 bucks there's someone that just spent 5000 on a brand new Marine army they won't even touch cause they're genuinely addicted.
Bosskelot wrote: We can joke but there really are only so many different kinds of Intercessors and bolt weapons with silly names that can be made.
Naaah they can go full on crazy. This variant rerolls 1's to hit, this one 2's to hit, this one rolls 1's and 3's etc. This one rerolls 1's to wound vs orks, another 1's vs eldars
GW ain't stopping marines any time soon. Names are not issue since they can simply add couple letters more to names.
Is it just possible that GW do in fact know what they’re doing, and are doing so with far more actual data points available to them than us mere mood are privy to?
Such as....
Their average transaction value. The level of uptake on their tie-in activities with Scouts and Duke of Edinburgh. The number of active school clubs. The number of beginners coming in through each store (this was tracked when I last worked for them).
They certainly know, but do not publish, range specific sales figures.
From the outside in, we might look at say, Witch Elves and scratch our heads at the their price tag. From the inside, GW will know for certain how many they sell in a given period, because they have total control over their own production.
So you can point to it and claim “short term gains” all you want. Just remember nobody on Dakka is playing with the full deck of cards to be able to reasonably judge that.
All we’ve got are local observations and anecdotes. With that there are the dangers of confirmation bias (only seeing what you expected to see). This extends to people online. How much weight can we put on those comments? If someone is claiming their army is underpowered, can we reasonably say it’s purely down to the rules, and not poor in-game decisions they made?
We might look at Tournament Placing and point to that as proof. But is it? It’s certainly interesting data, but without an unbiased rundown of the games being played and the lists being used, we again have incomplete information, so any conclusions drawn are incomplete.
Then we have the Wobbliest of conclusions - the prices are too high.
Well, says you. But what about the next person? What about that lovely middle class couple prepared to throw money at anything to keep their kid engaged. What of the kid with the paper round who spends their earnings on their hobby instead of booze and tabs or whatever it is those hip young things spend their dosh on these days.
Who are we to dictate the depth of anyone’s pockets but our own?
Do you have market study type things which explain how people approach prices for their chosen hobby/luxuries compared to essentials such as food? I don’t, but I’ll give you an example.
Income wise, I’m alright Jack. All bills paid on time, every time. Even when Gas, Electric and Water unite into a single month, it’s not wiping out my disposable income.
When it comes to GW, I’m really not fussed. If I can get it from Element, I will (not the deepest of discount, but their Crystal programme lets me support friends), if not I’ll get it from GW directly. And once the stores are re-opened, I’ll be dropping at least £60.00 to get those lovely coins.
When it comes to my essentials? I’ll go for deals if I can. Mumsie Grotsnik taught me from a young age to look at the shelf label, not the price, because it’s the price per 100g/litre etc that show the best value. I even try to shop by Meals, rather than just put random stuff in my trolley. I’ll still typically got for Brand Names for my Coca-Cola, ketchup etc. But beyond that, the cheapest goes in the trolley. Crisps and Cereals are typically whatever is on offer.
That’s my spending habits. But what of the next man or woman? Can I speak for them? Am I doing it more righter than them? No, on both counts. Their money, their approach to value and satisfaction.
In summary? We don’t know anywhere near enough to claim GW are playing only the short term. Take care to separate your (entirely valid) opinion on their prices, from what GW will know about their market place.
I don't think the investors like to hear stuff in the line of this year profits are down, but just wait 10 years in the future, there will be big money coming in/
From the outside in, we might look at say, Witch Elves and scratch our heads at the their price tag. From the inside, GW will know for certain how many they sell in a given period, because they have total control over their own production.
Witch Elves were ones of those units were GW expereminted with the price tag
Chaos Knights were as well
they wanted to know how different price tags for premium units affect sales and how far they can go
this happens once in a while were one box is really cheap for what you get and the other one overpriced
intial Stormcast and Fyreslayer were there as well (with the Slayers being overpriced like no other kit that came after them)
it is not that they don't do research or know what they are doing but if they make the righ conclusions out of the data
the lower price of Knights did not increased sales of the kits, either because the price does not matter, or because a niche unit within a niche army does not sell much anyway no matter of those who play it buy 1 or 3 boxes
Everyone always complained about the price for sure, but as the above poster mentioned we now have upper-bound price test products like the ridiculously expensive Blood Knights floating around.
You can still get cheaper units, the price just varies wildly between "more than what I think but not silly" and "a small piece of plastic for 30+ quid".
I'm more concerned with how the hobby has changed into cash-in mode much like how that Yugioh card game seems to have since I stopped playing as a kid. Every card is now has an effect, every archetype of the season blows the previous one out of the water with regards to their power levels, FOMO abounds for cards you'll never get a chance to get again and the cards I got in my last booster pack was covered in so much shiny gold crap that I couldn't really read it (In order to convey rarity? Am I a magpie or something?!)
Warhammer seems to be going down the same route, it was never this bad before. You had the skulls thing and event-only models, but nothing as bad as 30 quid for one plastic model or the constant "buy it now before it's gone forever!" vibe. I had already bought the female catachan in the one week where she was available, but only realised a few weeks after that I didn't actually like the model and wouldn't have bothered picking it up if it was a mainstay model.
On top of that GW is also cashing in on 30+ years of lore mystery and what-ifs. I reckon it'll be time for Age Of Sigmar part 2 once all the primarchs and the emperor are for sale. They'll have to since they'll have to make new lore at that point (And I've only heard negative things about any new lore for games they've made for the last few years, mostly AOS and primaris stuff)
Racerguy180 wrote: The part that passes me off is that you have games like Titanicus that are some of the best they've ever done contrasted with current 40k.
I think 40k has to many sacred cows when they are running a dairy farm, there is a lot that sorta just exists in the game that they have left even though “Drastic” edition changes.
It take them forever to finally do a move stat, and it’s almost like we had to lose initiative in the process. Leaving a lot of the factions down in defence that they need to support the design they still seem to design around.
a fat guy wrote: I'm more concerned with how the hobby has changed into cash-in mode much like how that Yugioh card game seems to have since I stopped playing as a kid. Every card is now has an effect, every archetype of the season blows the previous one out of the water with regards to their power levels, FOMO abounds for cards you'll never get a chance to get again and the cards I got in my last booster pack was covered in so much shiny gold crap that I couldn't really read it (In order to convey rarity? Am I a magpie or something?!)
Warhammer seems to be going down the same route, it was never this bad before. You had the skulls thing and event-only models, but nothing as bad as 30 quid for one plastic model or the constant "buy it now before it's gone forever!" vibe. I had already bought the female catachan in the one week where she was available, but only realised a few weeks after that I didn't actually like the model and wouldn't have bothered picking it up if it was a mainstay model.
That comparison is lacking for a few reasons:
- I can't remember a single limited model that made any splash on the gaming scene. That one re-imagined Space Marine with a Grav something (?) being my only memory of receiving at least some attention.
- Limited models can be easily converted or kitbashed, if you miss the opportunity to buy them and don't want to go to Ebay.
- As long as there is a playable entry for it in your codex, that model is purchasable from GW directly for everybody.
- You can buy what you want without relying on a lucky draw from a booster pack.
- As the balance pendulum swings, your old models might get a breath of fresh air. See Firstborn Marines for a current example.
Limited Models are a cash grab, because that’s the whole point of them.
I for one love them, to the degree I founded the Loot Group to help people avoid scalpers as much as possible. Given in the past I’ve placed orders for around 100 models, I’d say I’m not the only one,
They’re something a little different. Sculpts and looks which wouldn’t necessarily get to see the light of day. Others are just neat alternatives for Standard Models (the re-opening Chaplain being a notably lovely model, and a popular Loot Item).
None turn a middling army into all conquering one, because they lack special rules. Sure, the odd one comes with unique equipment, or at least sculpts wise a unique combination of equipment.
But none of the them as essential purchases. Instead, they’re bait. A way to get foot traffic to a specific location at a specific time, and from there hopefully sell more and generate repeat custom.
GW are doing gangbusters. They have definitely turned the ship around from the end of the Kirby era when they were losing market position. They are back to being top dog.
I think moving away from Start Collecting sets to patrol sets is a mistake, but that's because I really like the value in most Start Collecting sets. I imagine they sell extremely well, but maybe they cannabilise sales on other kits too much? In any case, I will probably pick up the last couple I am interested in sooner than later in case they go out of production.
But GW are kicking arse and taking names these days, even if everything they do is not to my taste. That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.
|if the future patrol boxs are going to be like the DA one, having them may not be a bad idea.
A box with no bad units, and multiple units you want or need is good for all new players, maybe even some more expiriance ones.
I think it is great that you could buy a box of blade guard, a DA patrol box followed by the DW or SW patrol box, and have a good army to start playing. Start collecting boxs were cheaper, but they were full of units that people never used.
On the flip side we get something like heroes of the chapter, which is a bit crazy considering the whole DI cost like twice as much +bit more, but came with more then twice the models and a second army, books etc.
Da Boss wrote: That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.
Now, can they stop from slipping back into Kirby habits? I see the recent, constant price rising,moving away from really cheap starters/battle boxes as a sign that despite having a social media team now, they're essentially the same. They just reigned in the visible parts of the corporate disdain for the customer (that exists in any corporation really) for the time being.
I think the start collecting boxes were a great intro product for kids when they were a bit cheaper. Now that they are more expensive, they are not really in that range any more, unless you buy them at some sort of discount. I think the patrol boxes are just past a certain value of sticker shock that makes them less acceptable as purchases for someone starting out. Just my view on the psychology of it, I might be wrong. I know I am less likely to pick them up, even if I would have spent more on different Start Collecting boxes. But then, I don't mind if models are not used in games because I am happy to build and paint them for use in roleplaying games and so on.
To me, they're far less enticing than the SC! boxes (even at the raised price), the price point is past easy, almost impulse-buy tier into "do i want this" level, and that changes their contents from "a little light but enticing" to "that's very little plastic for the price". They sit exactly at the wrong price-to-model ratio for me, expensive enough that I'd want more in them, not expensive enough to have a lot of models like the battlebox deals.
That comparison is lacking for a few reasons:
- I can't remember a single limited model that made any splash on the gaming scene. That one re-imagined Space Marine with a Grav something (?) being my only memory of receiving at least some attention.
- Limited models can be easily converted or kitbashed, if you miss the opportunity to buy them and don't want to go to Ebay.
- As long as there is a playable entry for it in your codex, that model is purchasable from GW directly for everybody.
- You can buy what you want without relying on a lucky draw from a booster pack.
- As the balance pendulum swings, your old models might get a breath of fresh air. See Firstborn Marines for a current example.
I'm not making the point that limited models break the game, but I should have made that clearer! I would have mentioned codex/power level creep for new releases if you want a closer comparison to Yugioh's power creep. My overall point there was that both systems are cashing in on their original value, for the card game it seems to be immediately more detrimental (they can gak off with their power creep xyz, tuner, cyber, pendulum flights of fancy, no way I'm going to play a more complex and one-sided game for more money) than it is for 40K (I can still easily get into the game without even knowing about the FOMO aspect). I'm also not trying to draw such contrasting comparisons between the two systems such that you'd compare the booster packs to collecting warhammer. We're getting into the realm of ridiculousness if we go down that route, I was focusing moreso on things like the cheapening (manufactured scarcity, power creep) of the appealing aspects of the hobbies (tactics, rare collectibles)
I'm also not sure why you're mentioning kitbashing/converting limited models? The entire point of them is their rarity. From the point of view of a collector, rather than a gamer, I wouldn't bother trying as it would just feel like a cheap imitation.
Also the pendulum (hah, I like what you did there!) largely swings in favour of the latest models/releases (or archetypes in yugioh's case). Firstborn getting a boost doesn't seem to have actually made them better than primaris from what I've heard though, but it does feed into the primaris replacing firstborn idea. I think Auspex tactics did a comparison and found primaris to be marginally better over.
alextroy wrote: People have been predicting the downfall of GW based on their business practices as long as I have been in the hobby. And yet somehow 45 year old GW is doing great in the middle of a pandemic by being GW.
Yep. People have been making variations on the claims in this thread on GW-related Internet forums as long as GW-related Internet forums have been a thing. GW even had their own, back in the day, which they shut down due to the endless pissing, moaning and doom-mongering. Plus ça change.
To be fair, they did make some severe misteps and lose a fair chunk of the player base toward the end of the Kirby era. They've since recovered because they stopped doing as much stupid crap.
I think that's good, because they've made lots of cool stuff I am interested in and I think GW existing is good for the general hobby of playing with or painting miniatures.
Da Boss wrote: To be fair, they did make some severe misteps and lose a fair chunk of the player base toward the end of the Kirby era. They've since recovered because they stopped doing as much stupid crap.
I think that's good, because they've made lots of cool stuff I am interested in and I think GW existing is good for the general hobby of playing with or painting miniatures.
True. But I think this probably demonstrates that even if there are missteps, GW are big and popular enough to course correct and recover, rather than the "GW are DOOMED, any minute now!" narrative so beloved of internet fora. Obviously you can never say never, but I'm old enough to remember people confidently predicting the imminent demise of GW for around twenty years now.
alextroy wrote: People have been predicting the downfall of GW based on their business practices as long as I have been in the hobby. And yet somehow 45 year old GW is doing great in the middle of a pandemic by being GW.
Yep. People have been making variations on the claims in this thread on GW-related Internet forums as long as GW-related Internet forums have been a thing. GW even had their own, back in the day, which they shut down due to the endless pissing, moaning and doom-mongering. Plus ça change.
Absolutely, but they were in a bad way before the CEO change.
I'd argue that they're only doing as well as they're doing now because of a combination of focusing almost solely on their cash cow factions and essentially doing an end times for 40K that's gonna take so long to finish (what like twenty-plus primarch-level models to bring out? Loads of subfactions yet to be brought back or fleshed out?) that by the time the 40K end times is finished, Age of Sigmar may have gained the nostalgic fondness for itself that Fantasy has (the currently young main target demograph will probably be 15 years older at that point) and the cycle will begin anew.
Or I dunno maybe the lack of depth in AOS will hamper it? I mean fantasy 6th edition rulebook feels more like a D&D tome and that really appealed to me. I can't say the same for anything GW published in recent memory except maybe the traitor legions supplement.
to be fair, GW was very close to fall when Kirby took over because of their mis-calulation in costs for translations and sales for specialist games
(like BB and BFG, were they run out of boxes/models in UK but had piles sitting in Germany and Italy that did not sell, but because the gaming material was more expensive than the models inside, it was useless and not owrth getting it back and re-pack them)
and again during the release of AoS, without the change in management and continue on their plans for "games", it would look very different now
also being lucky that their biggest competitors struggeled at the time were GW was weak or had bad ideas as well helped them too
Yes the older/veteran gamers will leave the hobby/stop supporting GWs current line for several reasons
.They have a large enough collection
.They stop playing for real life reasons
.Or like many of us they do not like the direction of the game has gone and prefer to go back to playing an older edition that we already have all the models/books/codexes for.
No because GW is a self built monopoly in the gaming market. they raise prices and players buy in, they raise them a little more and players still buy in. they write terrible rules and still people buy in. As long as GW continues to dominate the market, people will continue to buy into a circular feeding frenzy.
People buy in because it is widely accessible. it has became so widely accessible because so many people have bought in creating the largest player base in the niche hobby market.
The model has worked for so many years i don't see GW changing it anytime soon unless there is a huge drop in sales.
They do seem to be trying to move the "boxed set" tier of purchase from an occasional offering a few times a year to a more normalized purchase. Between the 3 centerpiece over $100 Necrons, the patrol boxes, and more boxed sets in the pipeline, it does seem to be a trend.
As to whether it is damaging their future or not, they could be, but it doesn't look that way to me right now.
I do think 3d printing is very much a major way forward here, but how quickly it would eat GW's overinflated bottom line was unquestionably overestimated.
And the recasters, using a faster, cheaper, far more accurate process than 3D printing haven't hurt them either. If you think 3D printing is going to damage them, then you must also be assuming that the economy of scale doesn't matter, that they themselves can't use it, and that 3D printing will, in short order, become as ubiquitous as microwaves very soon. This is another "reset the clock" type argument. Last time we had it in depth, most of Dakka seemed pretty convinced it would begin over-taking GW's profits by 2015. lol
I don't want to derail the thread, and I think just about everyone has seen my essays on why this really isn't likely any time in the next 20+ years, but DM if you want details.
I'd been meaning to ask about that - I used to play what used to be called Vanilla Marines back in 3rd/4th and at the time I definitely didn't feel like GW was just endlessly tongue-bathing my posterior with rules and releases. I'd wondered if that was blindness born of Marine Privilege or if right now genuinely is the worst the Marine oversaturation has ever been.
They've always had two things. They've always been the "poster boys" and they've always been guaranteed a codex every edition. Ok three things. lol They've always had a few more kits than everyone else. But for my entire time on Dakka, most of the conversation was about how bad they were, and, they have never, ever, seen what is now a 2+ year CONSTANT release cycle like this. No army has. Ever. And this is happening in the face of armies like Dark Eldar getting a solid revamp in 5th, and then doing nothing but LOSING UNITS every edition since 5th. Armies like Craftworld Eldar and IG are running 20+ year old sculpts, but we're on our 9th "Primaris LT". It's never been this utterly ridiculous, and I say this as a long-time marine player who actually shelved his army in 8th because of how dumb it was getting.
So what's different now vs then? Why are you noticing it NOW? Well, easy. I've said this before, and I'm going to repeat it. With the Primaris stuff you're witnessing a slow & steady roll out of an entire product line.
Think about it. If the Primaris were their own brand new/stand-alone force (like the Sisters for ex)? GW would've dropped most of these kits on you in one massive go, spanning about 2-3 months. With misc stuff straggling in after that. Why? Because they wouldn't be a very functional army otherwise.
But while the Primaris are a new product line, they aren't a standalone force. So GW can stretch out their release without the units being unplayable. They don't need to drop it all on us at once. But at the same time they aren't going to spend 20 years building out the line ala where the classic marines have ended up.
Primaris are, and have been, a stand alone force for some time now. People are noticing the release cycle now, because it has literally never happened like this before. That's what happens when an unprecedented event occurs. People tend to notice. This is unhealthy, and just not great for long term growth of the game/hobby. Feel free to disagree, but go look at the half a million threads where, 6 months ago Dakka was divided, and now, even the most ardent marine supporters from back then are starting to agree that this is all fairly out of hand.
Pardon? You were dead on--GW underwent massive reform in business strategy and how they interacted with the community in 2016. There was a sizable move towards long-term thinking. It's just the last couple years things that progress has been eroded.
Changing the way they engage with the community was in response to the failed strategy they had under-taken when they killed all their online comms outlets. It is a good long term strategy. It is also the only long-term strategy they engage in, and the one that best allows them to drive their short term goals more easily. How better to hype the new, "one time only, limited edition XYZ" than to do a "special preview on Twitch"? Also, look at what has happened to edition length. It's not exactly gotten longer has it?
Have "special edition" products increased, or decreased? How often do they rely on FOMO now? These are all signs of a company almost solely focused on short term profits. That said, they seem to be pratty darn good at it, so it's not likely going to be an issue for them.
Da Boss wrote: That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.
Now, can they stop from slipping back into Kirby habits? I see the recent, constant price rising,moving away from really cheap starters/battle boxes as a sign that despite having a social media team now, they're essentially the same. They just reigned in the visible parts of the corporate disdain for the customer (that exists in any corporation really) for the time being.
Price increases are part of business. Just because governments don't keep pace with inflation doesn't mean businesses won't.
Is it just possible that GW do in fact know what they’re doing, and are doing so with far more actual data points available to them than us mere mood are privy to?
Very much this. I'm surprised that more people don't talk about what GW is doing right.
Yes the older/veteran gamers will leave the hobby/stop supporting GWs current line for several reasons
.They have a large enough collection
.They stop playing for real life reasons
.Or like many of us they do not like the direction of the game has gone and prefer to go back to playing an older edition that we already have all the models/books/codexes for.
Yes because GW is a self built monopoly in the gaming market. they raise prices and players buy in, they raise them a little more and players still buy in. they write terrible rules and still people buy in. As long as GW continues to dominate the market, people will continue to buy into a circular feeding frenzy.
People buy in because it is widely accessible. it has became so widely accessible because so many people have bought in creating the largest player base in the niche hobby market.
The model has worked for so many years i don't see GW changing it anytime soon unless there is a huge drop in sales.
GWhad a huge drop in sales. And then they recovered. Why? Because they made improvements.
So to pretend like GW hobbyists are mindless drones unable to discern any reality is frankly quite insulting.
Da Boss wrote: That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.
Now, can they stop from slipping back into Kirby habits? I see the recent, constant price rising,moving away from really cheap starters/battle boxes as a sign that despite having a social media team now, they're essentially the same. They just reigned in the visible parts of the corporate disdain for the customer (that exists in any corporation really) for the time being.
Price increases are part of business. Just because governments don't keep pace with inflation doesn't mean businesses won't.
This point gets brought up every time, but to my knowledge GW isn't located in Elbonia with 30% annual inflation.
GW has always focused on short term gains. The problem is there's enough "whales" who don't care and still throw money at GW no matter what. So as long as they remain profitable (or get more profitable despite not doing much different) they have no reason to change since it's working.
Take Cadians for example, since the sculpts haven't changed in two decades- Cadian Shock Troops released in '03 at $30 for a box of 20. Today it costs $36 for a box of 10. That's an increase of 140%, whereas inflation has increased prices by 40% over the same time period. If Cadians followed inflation, we'd be looking at $21 for a box of 10.
You don't have to look far to see people getting priced out by the increases. As much as people say 'this is how GW's always done it', there has to be a point where it becomes unsustainable.
Take Cadians for example, since the sculpts haven't changed in two decades- Cadian Shock Troops released in '03 at $30 for a box of 20. Today it costs $36 for a box of 10. That's an increase of 140%, whereas inflation has increased prices by 40% over the same time period. If Cadians followed inflation, we'd be looking at $21 for a box of 10.
You don't have to look far to see people getting priced out by the increases. As much as people say 'this is how GW's always done it', there has to be a point where it becomes unsustainable.
That doesn't mean they're restricted to just inflation.
If they don't turn that extra cash into improvements like copywrighters or continuing to expand specialist games then I'd be pissed, but seeing as they're bringing back the Old World...
Also it has never been easier to buy discounted minis. The lifting of the webstore restrictions has made buying online simple - though one should still considering sacrificing that extra $20 to your local FLGS as a form of dues ( applies more to the US, I guess ).
GW has always focused on short term gains. The problem is there's enough "whales" who don't care and still throw money at GW no matter what. So as long as they remain profitable (or get more profitable despite not doing much different) they have no reason to change since it's working.
IDK if that's really true. There are a lot of "whales", but look at what happened in 7th. Profits hit an all-time-low, a non-GW game (X-Wing) passed 40k in popularity and even sales for what I believe is the first time ever, a huge number of tournaments shut down, and many LGS's, for the first in a LONG time, either stopped carrying GW all together, cut back in orders, or, at least threatened the trade sales reps with cancellation if they couldn't stop the bleeding.
It looks like Roundtree will be stepping down this year so we'll be at the whims of whomever is appointed. I just hope the board has a good amount of sense on the matter.
Da Boss wrote: But GW are kicking arse and taking names these days, even if everything they do is not to my taste. That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.
Was going to say, as a company, the last time I thought they might be in trouble was before they booted Kirby.
I hate the idea of $30 infantry models. But some people pay that much for them, that's the market speaking. It's not driving anyone away, that's just GW achieving optimal pricing. Same with Start Collecting boxes.
The long run doesn't matter, the future is a fantasy because there are no guarantees. If I was going to point to strategic threats, resin printers could do a lot more damage.
Resin Printers and 3D Scanners that are accurate down to 2 microns.
You hear me GW? I can scan your sprues now and print an entire army for about 1/10th the cost.
Daedalus81 wrote: It looks like Roundtree will be stepping down this year so we'll be at the whims of whomever is appointed. I just hope the board has a good amount of sense on the matter.
Ack! I hadn't caught that. Do we know why? That seriously bums me out. I had given up the game in 7th. Came back in 8th when I saw all the positive changes he had fostered in the company as a whole. He will be a tough act to follow. Especially given how quickly he got things turned around.
If I was going to point to strategic threats, resin printers could do a lot more damage.
Keep pointing. Let me know when your arm gets tired.
Daedalus81 wrote: It looks like Roundtree will be stepping down this year so we'll be at the whims of whomever is appointed. I just hope the board has a good amount of sense on the matter.
Ack! I hadn't caught that. Do we know why? That seriously bums me out. I had given up the game in 7th. Came back in 8th when I saw all the positive changes he had fostered in the company as a whole. He will be a tough act to follow. Especially given how quickly he got things turned around.
He never mentioned an implicit cause. I think he's just ready to retire.
Daedalus81 wrote: It looks like Roundtree will be stepping down this year so we'll be at the whims of whomever is appointed. I just hope the board has a good amount of sense on the matter.
Ack! I hadn't caught that. Do we know why? That seriously bums me out. I had given up the game in 7th. Came back in 8th when I saw all the positive changes he had fostered in the company as a whole. He will be a tough act to follow. Especially given how quickly he got things turned around.
He never mentioned an implicit cause. I think he's just ready to retire.
What's the source on that, Daed? Not doubting, I just can't find anything online unless it's buried in an earnings report that Google isn't parsing.
Wayniac wrote: GW has always focused on short term gains. The problem is there's enough "whales" who don't care and still throw money at GW no matter what. So as long as they remain profitable (or get more profitable despite not doing much different) they have no reason to change since it's working.
I disagree. It's not that simple. you are too bitter about things Wayne.Theres a lot of good stuff that a lot of folks are enjoying that I think you either can't see, refuse to see or twist it round trying to turn it bad. And i don't mean this badly of you. Take it from someone who has been in the same place as you are now - I genuinely think you need to take a step away from this hobby for a while.
Kirby was the whale chaser.
Roundtree was the change.
And sure, there's whales, and folks who buy lead mountains and never paint anything, let alone put them together. I'd lay more than a few pennies their numbers are dwarved by those of excited hobbyists. There's plenty folks that came back, because gw game them what they wanted in terms of the game on the table, plenty new folks started because gw finally got it right with the getting started 'ahem, value' boxes, gw finally got it right with a wide range of games, rather than a focus on the big two exclusively. We have necromunda, titanicus, kill team, blood bowl, warcry, etc. They have a whole ecosystem now of different games catering to different tastes. gw finally keep people engaged with a decent media approach, collectors are kept on side because frankly, gw's models have never been better, black library and licenced deals are a licence to print money. Hell, they have a damned tv show coming! I've been a follower of warhammer for 20 years. Over half my life. I could never conceive of a time like this. Basically warhammer has never been this popular. You can't move for people in most of the shops. That's more than 'hur dur whales'. That's a lot of excitement and a lot of engagement from a lot of people.
Gene St. Ealer wrote: What's the source on that, Daed? Not doubting, I just can't find anything online unless it's buried in an earnings report that Google isn't parsing.
+
In my statement last year I said that I expected my successor as non-executive chairman of Games Workshop to be appointed from within this group of talented individuals ‘within the next few years’. This timetable continues: I will stand down from the board of Games Workshop (at the latest) at our 2021 AGM, when the board (excluding me) has decided upon my replacement.
Their Scrooge McDuck money bin that they have been swimming in for years and that continues to grow seems to tell me that they aren't damaging anything but their customers' wallets.
Wayniac wrote: GW has always focused on short term gains. The problem is there's enough "whales" who don't care and still throw money at GW no matter what. So as long as they remain profitable (or get more profitable despite not doing much different) they have no reason to change since it's working.
I disagree. It's not that simple. you are too bitter about things Wayne.Theres a lot of good stuff that a lot of folks are enjoying that I think you either can't see, refuse to see or twist it round trying to turn it bad. And i don't mean this badly of you. Take it from someone who has been in the same place as you are now - I genuinely think you need to take a step away from this hobby for a while.
Kirby was the whale chaser.
Roundtree was the change.
And sure, there's whales, and folks who buy lead mountains and never paint anything, let alone put them together. I'd lay more than a few pennies their numbers are dwarved by those of excited hobbyists. There's plenty folks that came back, because gw game them what they wanted in terms of the game on the table, plenty new folks started because gw finally got it right with the getting started 'ahem, value' boxes, gw finally got it right with a wide range of games, rather than a focus on the big two exclusively. We have necromunda, titanicus, kill team, blood bowl, warcry, etc. They have a whole ecosystem now of different games catering to different tastes. gw finally keep people engaged with a decent media approach, collectors are kept on side because frankly, gw's models have never been better, black library and licenced deals are a licence to print money. Hell, they have a damned tv show coming! I've been a follower of warhammer for 20 years. Over half my life. I could never conceive of a time like this. Basically warhammer has never been this popular. You can't move for people in most of the shops. That's more than 'hur dur whales'. That's a lot of excitement and a lot of engagement from a lot of people.
Why does being a whale mean you don't paint?
Those legions of excited hobbyists are the reason you get wave after wave of marines, shallow rules, bad art, fluff, silly miniature designs, and really the slow degradation of everything that was good about the game imo. Not a single thing you've listed is necessarily good; star wars has all of that x100 and it's hot garbage. If you removed all of the buzzwords from your post it would be almost blank. Consider reading this 40khttps://meaningness.com/geeks-mops-sociopaths.
Those legions of excited hobbyists are the reason you get wave after wave of marines, shallow rules, bad art, fluff, silly miniature designs, and really the slow degradation of everything that was good about the game imo. Not a single thing you've listed is necessarily good; star wars has all of that x100 and it's hot garbage. If you removed all of the buzzwords from your post it would be almost blank. Consider reading this 40khttps://meaningness.com/geeks-mops-sociopaths.
It doesn't nrcessarily make it bad though, either. The 40k I fell in love with back in third was an abomination to many of those who went before me and played 2nd. All those things you say about the current edition were said about the edition I played when I got started. Were they right? Yes. Was I right to like what I liked and what they casually dismissed? Also yes. Current era folks who are into a game that is radically different from the game I enjoyed? Theyre also right. Its simply the same old cycle simply repeating.
But Fair is fair. Youre entitled to your view joe. I don't share all of it mind, especially the art or the 'silly miniature designs' - I love most of the primaris, warcry and newcromunda range. Thay said I am not a star wars fan - I have zero time for it whatsoever, so ill agree with you there. That whole ip could get sucked into a black hole and my heart wouldn't miss a beat.
But I don't think I was commenting on whether these things were good or bad, just that they were, and they've drawn a lot of people into the gw sphere. From gw's pov it's a win. There's reasons people have come back, including myself. It's really not a cool thing to try and devalue others enjoyment or reasons, it's not necessarily badwrongfun. I'll respect your stance, please show the same consideration.
Fair. Youre entitled to your view joe. I don't share all of it mind, especially the art or the 'silly miniature designs' - I love most of the primaris, warcry and newcromunda range. Thay said I am not a star wars fan - I have zero time for it whatsoever, so ill agree with you there. That whole ip could get sucked into a black hole and my heart wouldn't miss a beat.
But I don't think I was commenting on whether these things were good or bad, just that they were, and they've drawn a lot of people into the gw sphere. From gw's pov it's a win. There's reasons people have come back, including myself. It's really not a cool thing to try and devalue others enjoyment or reasons, it's not necessarily badwrongfun. I'll respect your stance, please show the same consideration.
So to pretend like GW hobbyists are mindless drones unable to discern any reality is frankly quite insulting.
Mindless? hardly, more like addicted.
I play with the GW simps who cannot/will not stop buying new GW product even though they consistently complain about the prices and rules writing BECAUSE 40K is the game they can find the most number of people to play with.
And this is after they have played other games i have taught them, that they agree are better games.
So it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy=
.i'm not going to invest in or promote another game because there are not enough players like there are for GW games.
.without support and promotion the player base never significantly grows for non GW games.
Gene St. Ealer wrote: What's the source on that, Daed? Not doubting, I just can't find anything online unless it's buried in an earnings report that Google isn't parsing.
+
In my statement last year I said that I expected my successor as non-executive chairman of Games Workshop to be appointed from within this group of talented individuals ‘within the next few years’. This timetable continues: I will stand down from the board of Games Workshop (at the latest) at our 2021 AGM, when the board (excluding me) has decided upon my replacement.
Quasistellar wrote: Their Scrooge McDuck money bin that they have been swimming in for years and that continues to grow seems to tell me that they aren't damaging anything but their customers' wallets.
Honestly I wish they would come for my wallet :( nothing to buy makes me sad.
But, it can all be damaging and still be profitable, so many people ignore that.
Space marines sell, I don’t think that can be disputed. But the damage to other parts of the brand of 40k could be damaged beyond repair as well, with factions like eldar and tau. If players are leaving then even if new releases are put out, they may not have the players to support them without more risk.
This could be all why they are fine as a company, but throwing away both money and the community they do really rely on.
It’s why so many big companies can be fine, until they are not.
GW is already branching away from 40k soo much, and just from the support it gets, I would even think Age of sigma is considered more healthy a product line at GW at this point potentially.
No one dies until they do. Nothing goes bad until it does. Does GW strategy seem stupid ? Yes. Is it hurting them in near term, no. Will it but them in the butt eventually, I think so.
However until it actually is sinking them, they won't care and at the point it does it could be a combination of things. This kind of hobby is very niche and needs time, patience some skill and lots of space. It won't last forever and with the prices I doubt they'll see replacements when all of us start falling away.
Once that happens however, it may then be too late with too few people left to care.
I doubt GW will die all the way though. Their IP at this point is pretty strong and if they keep mainstreaming they will probably live on in other forms for quite a long time, like SEGA from video games. Not dead, just a mere shell of what it once was.
Though that is all still a ways off, decades at least I'd say, but ya never know. Nothing lasts forever, not even cold November rain.
I'm of the thinking that the future of the hobby surely lies in younger players, and from what I can tell there aren't anywhere near as many as there used to be. I suspect nearly everyone talking on this forum (a certain type of person admittedly) is probably aged over 20, most over 30 and a fair few like myself over 40. And this is a trend I see at GW stores, hobby events, heck even youtube channels. And like Hornby or Airfix certain things go out of fashion, there'll be some younger players trickling through, but if the those younger players keep decreasing in numbers then the hobby will surely dwindle.
Are GW doing enough to entice younger players? Or are younger players not coming through despite what GW does?
This is only my opinion based on an admittedly limited view of the gaming community.
What you tend to see is kids getting into it as teenagers, then life/school/hormones and girls (or boys...) catching their attention and 30k becomes something they used to do.
Then in their mid 20s they rediscover the joy and get back into the hobby, this time with more experience,patience and skill and of course, with jobs instead of the bank of mum and dad, so they have the disposable income to engage.
.
It's a minority that stick with it all the way through their lives. And that's OK.
And sure, things go out of fashion, but for the same reason as live plays and theatre survive in the era of billion pound movies, dvds, streaming, cinema etc, table top wargames will.always survive. Even if it's one person in a thousand, there's a market for this kind of thing.
My experience as a teacher is that there are always kids who are interested in the hobby. There are always a bunch who think the minis and the game are about the coolest thing they have ever seen.
I will say that outside of rich kids though price is a major consideration. A lot of them are just going to get a start collecting box and call it a day. And the minis are less kid friendly than they used to be, quite hard to put together in a lot of cases.
I try to introduce them to more affordable options as well, because I feel bad otherwise, but kids also are very status conscious and they want to have "the best" brand so they rarely want to do stuff outside of GW. Sometimes a kid will really like the look of some non-GW stuff, but they want the "best" stuff in case others look down on them often.
But I think a lot of kids are playing with a group of friends after school or whatever and we never see them at clubs and so on until they are older.
Da Boss wrote: But I think a lot of kids are playing with a group of friends after school or whatever and we never see them at clubs and so on until they are older.
I'm collecting since 1999 when I picked up a 2nd edition Khorne Berserker box as my first kit ever. To this day I never played in a shop. When we were kids and teenagers, our group consisting of 6 people always played in my parent's basement on Friday nights.
I think there are more collectors and players than we perceive there are.
I think there where you play depends a lot on where you live. In countries with a shortage of places to live since WWI, you can't really expect most people to play at homes.
While I can imagine that americans, with their gignatic homes, could probably pull it off.
There is a huge turn over of player in w40k. There is a stable group of people in their late 20s and mid 30s playing since the 2000s, and bunch of 13-15y olds, who play for a year or maybe a bit longer. Some don't even get to collect a full army, because the army gets nerfed and no longer fun to play or made illegal. Making regular space marines the safe option for new players.
Yeah if someone was getting into 40K and liked space marines at all I would encourage them to try them out over other factions since they are likelier to have a better time with marines and be treated much better as customers.
Da Boss wrote: Yeah if someone was getting into 40K and liked space marines at all I would encourage them to try them out over other factions since they are likelier to have a better time with marines and be treated much better as customers.
We have lost so many players to, best to wait to see what they do with other factions. Most of the sisters players I have play with never come back and didn’t even know there was new sisters miniatures :(
And it seems they are selling great from what I keep reading about them.
One thing for me is that GW’s greatest asset is the army of loyal fans who get their younger brothers and cousins and friends into the hobby because they are cool. I wonder if GW isn’t shooting itself in the foot by alienating these peeps with e.g. Ao$, restartes, uneven support for older factions e.g. eldar, GK/witchunters...
I'm a bit worried to see some 100+ bucks units representing one 10th of our armies crop up and book churning shenanigans that are, imho, bad practices (why did they offer a "supplement" that was essential to the game, on release date ?) as it might lead to newer players not willing to invest.
BUT, GW proved they just have to reset everything by burning it to the ground and then providing minimal support until they figure out what to do (it's a method spelled AOS), to get back on track.
As long as they provide "new stuff", there will be enough people willing to get it. Not that these people are right or wrong, they can't be as it is a matter of taste and personal value, just that they are now popular enough to live on the hype generated by newer products.
So I don't think they are really hurting themselves, just a part of their audience.
The question shouldn’t be to question GW’s strategy, the question should be “After Saturday’s releases, it will have been one day since a space marine release, so what’s next for space marines?”?
Huron black heart wrote: I'm of the thinking that the future of the hobby surely lies in younger players, and from what I can tell there aren't anywhere near as many as there used to be. I suspect nearly everyone talking on this forum (a certain type of person admittedly) is probably aged over 20, most over 30 and a fair few like myself over 40. And this is a trend I see at GW stores, hobby events, heck even youtube channels. And like Hornby or Airfix certain things go out of fashion, there'll be some younger players trickling through, but if the those younger players keep decreasing in numbers then the hobby will surely dwindle.
Are GW doing enough to entice younger players? Or are younger players not coming through despite what GW does?
This is only my opinion based on an admittedly limited view of the gaming community.
If anything GW is doing better with younger outreach than most other firms of its era and even market.
And yeah forums are for old people now - much as I hate to say it. The youth (and all those who came to the internet "late" ) are all on facebook/reddit/discord
GWs biggest long term failure is that they are slow to realize that by improving their rules writing they will grow their market share. Releasing tons of minis is great and works well, and follows the monetizing mode of video games that use “custom skins” etc. But what has made a game like magic the gathering eternal is the fact that the rules are considered to be well designed and so it entices new people to pick the game up. GW products are still considered to be a “dark shame” because the game system is weak and poorly designed relative to other war games. And that is their own doing. Dungeons and dragons and magic the gathering endure because of their game design. GW will endure through elegant model design, but by neglecting to write good rules, they do concede market share.
Gregor Samsa wrote: GWs biggest long term failure is that they are slow to realize that by improving their rules writing they will grow their market share. Releasing tons of minis is great and works well, and follows the monetizing mode of video games that use “custom skins” etc. But what has made a game like magic the gathering eternal is the fact that the rules are considered to be well designed and so it entices new people to pick the game up. GW products are still considered to be a “dark shame” because the game system is weak and poorly designed relative to other war games. And that is their own doing. Dungeons and dragons and magic the gathering endure because of their game design. GW will endure through elegant model design, but by neglecting to write good rules, they do concede market share.
Not sure about this. To whom are they losing their market share with their "bad rules?" A Magic player is not necessarily a lost 40K player - they might have not inclination to miniatures. And what is this "dark shame?" Are we playing the same game?
Gregor Samsa wrote: GWs biggest long term failure is that they are slow to realize that by improving their rules writing they will grow their market share. Releasing tons of minis is great and works well, and follows the monetizing mode of video games that use “custom skins” etc. But what has made a game like magic the gathering eternal is the fact that the rules are considered to be well designed and so it entices new people to pick the game up. GW products are still considered to be a “dark shame” because the game system is weak and poorly designed relative to other war games. And that is their own doing. Dungeons and dragons and magic the gathering endure because of their game design. GW will endure through elegant model design, but by neglecting to write good rules, they do concede market share.
Not sure about this. To whom are they losing their market share with their "bad rules?" A Magic player is not necessarily a lost 40K player - they might have not inclination to miniatures. And what is this "dark shame?" Are we playing the same game?
Lots of fans of strategy games are turned off by GW sloppy rules writing..skewed list building, weird gaming of unintended edge-cases and so on. Im not saying MTG or D&D are perfect...I am simply saying that those games are loved because of the perception that the designers care about their ruleset. Whereas GW games tend to be loved more for their models. If GW paid more attention to their rules they would draw in more players who want to play a strategy game more than they want to horde model kits.
I am not sure D&D is a good counter example. If anything I see it in the same boat as 40k. Both are popular to the point of being dominant, readily available and well supported, but uninspired rules wise with better if niche alternatives available for most aspect thereof.
Thus, GW may have a viable business strategy, but it is lacking in some or many aspects and does alienate portions of the market.
Daedalus81 wrote: MtG is the biggest money sink on the planet. I will never go back to that nightmare good rules or not.
The cost is pretty bad right now, yes. The game is still fun, for the most part. You can play Commander without an expensive deck, and of course there's Pauper, there best format.
I would argue the key difference is, deservedly or not (usually not) the cards do have their present value, and powerful cards usually keep it to a degree.
Daedalus81 wrote: MtG is the biggest money sink on the planet. I will never go back to that nightmare good rules or not.
The cost is pretty bad right now, yes. The game is still fun, for the most part. You can play Commander without an expensive deck, and of course there's Pauper, there best format.
I would argue the key difference is, deservedly or not (usually not) the cards do have their present value, and powerful cards usually keep it to a degree.
There are also free ways to play MtG in both physical and digital formats. My playgroup proxies cards by printing them and sleeving them over lands so we can all afford to play and don't have to put arbitrary price restrictions on our decks, it won't work for playing at a shop or sanctioned event but it's 100% legal and with an eco tank printer nearly free after the start-up cost.
Daedalus81 wrote: Yea I am foiled by my desire to be overly competitive. I tried online, but just felt like I was treading water against people who bought decks/packs.
Have you tried MtG Arena? I hear that with the wild cards it's pretty easy to get a deck or two that works in Standard for essentially free.
EDIT: You'll still hit that treading water point but that's kind of the point of a skill-based matchmaking system. You'll go 50/50 until you figure out the meta/fall off the meta and start to rise or sink again. It can be frustrating but also a great challenge for your skills.
yet, buying a premade Deck Box to play at home with wife and kids is a no-brainer
while doing the same with 40k, will cost much more and you know in advance that unless everyone gets the same Marine Patrol Box the fun will be one sided
Gw has skyrocketed ever since Kirby left and the transition toward 8th and 9th edition philosophies that focus on army building.
It has been a resounding success and will probably continue to be. Espically so if via word of mouth and friendship groups the hobby continues to be exposed to more people.
NinthMusketeer wrote: I know the MtG comparison crops up a lot, but it just is not comparable to 40k. Not even apples to oranges, more like apples to potatoes.
If you asked the French they would be inclined to disagree; apples are very much like potatoes!
NinthMusketeer wrote: I know the MtG comparison crops up a lot, but it just is not comparable to 40k. Not even apples to oranges, more like apples to potatoes.
If you asked the French they would be inclined to disagree; apples are very much like potatoes!
Tango you forget the days when Warmachine was on a strong rise and Warhammer was losing many of its more experienced players. Models were good, but the rules were dire and updates were sluggishly slow. Armies could wait and miss whole editions before getting a rules update.
It's not until 9th edition and 2.0 for AoS that GW actually managed to update armies within a year of a new edition (something every other firm does on mostly the same day as a new edition).
GW's rules have always been a bit loose on the specific and balance, mostly because of the attitude and style of how they make them and the staff involved. They don't use technical writing as well as they could or should by this stage and other firms do show them up.
What masks it is model quality; market dominance; ease of getting into the game and also things like marketing and their ability to be the first port of call. Good lore and artwork also helps be a big draw.
In short its not as bad now as it was, but GW still has a longish road to travel toward better writing and balance. I think they are slowly heading along the right path, but they aren't going full speed.
In a way its surprising that they've actually avoided the whole concept of "geek sports" which almost every other major game or such that has built up over the last 20 odd years has reached out for with open arms. GW didn't even get into online streaming until very late
In short its not as bad now as it was, but GW still has a longish road to travel toward better writing and balance. I think they are slowly heading along the right path, but they aren't going full speed.
I don't think it is that level of a timeline.
The switch between RPG esq 2nd and squad battle 3rd was a huge change for the game. even with 3rd/4th still more focused on lore based rules in stand alone codexes it wasn't until 5th that the core rules themselves really became universally acceptable. aside from the most notable codex power creep problems with certain writers *cough* matt ward *cough* and the marketing department along with the apparent lack of internal communications between the codex writing teams talking to each other or not even understanding the core rules of their own game from time to time. the game was actually headed in a good direction until the disaster that was 6th edition hit the shelves. with a slight bounce for the "fixed" 7th edition that later killed itself on the alter of formation spam(that 30K once again fixed).
So players who are new converts may think the game is on the right path with 9th especially if they knew nothing prior to 8th. however there is a general revolt among many veteran players about the path the game is currently on both in core rules and release focus. one has to only look at the popularity of the pro-hammer and old hammer topics to see this.
As another example of this as somebody who has been playing actively for 20 years, aside from the abstract market discussions or lore discussion i have all but stopped following 40Ks new releases. i don't know about any of the rules updates or new units for primaris or any other force for that matter in the last 6 months or so and frankly do not care. I am having great fun playing 5th, or battlefleet gothic, epic or some other non-GW game.
So players who are new converts may think the game is on the right path with 9th especially if they knew nothing prior to 8th. however there is a general revolt among many veteran players about the path the game is currently on both in core rules and release focus. one has to only look at the popularity of the pro-hammer and old hammer topics to see this.
As another example of this as somebody who has been playing actively for 20 years, aside from the abstract market discussions or lore discussion i have all but stopped following 40Ks new releases. i don't know about any of the rules updates or new units for primaris or any other force for that matter in the last 6 months or so and frankly do not care. I am having great fun playing 5th, or battlefleet gothic, epic or some other non-GW game.
I've been playing now for....32 years.
Beware about claiming a consensus on the grognards. You'll also see people peel off book by book when their army gets sorted.
I don't think it is that level of a timeline.
It very much is. GW went too fast for their capabilities in 8th. I hope they go fast in 9th, but with more experience and care.
Profits keep going up so people must keep buying it. In increasing numbers. So I can’t see how they are shouting themselves in the foot. Would anyone care to venture the price point at which they will step away from the hobby. GW, like other companies such as Apple, are very good at creating demand amongst their existing customers. And every now and then they will throw us something that’s very good value for money. Indomitus for example.
The running joke of the backlog of models that every collector has is A) mostly true and B) evidence that people are going to buy things they don’t need at the point of purchase
Beware about claiming a consensus on the grognards. You'll also see people peel off book by book when their army gets sorted.
Weee i started playing TT miniatures (classic battletech in 1987/88) only 40K since 2,000.
The point stands, there is a movement/interest on the part of a segment of the veteran gamers away from 9th for various reasons that newer players do not understand.
Overread wrote: Tango you forget the days when Warmachine was on a strong rise and Warhammer was losing many of its more experienced players. Models were good, but the rules were dire and updates were sluggishly slow. Armies could wait and miss whole editions before getting a rules update.
It's not until 9th edition and 2.0 for AoS that GW actually managed to update armies within a year of a new edition (something every other firm does on mostly the same day as a new edition).
I suppose you are right - to your point I stepped out of 40K when 7th came out. I came back for 8th. Why did I leave? I had grown increasingly disenchanted in 6th Ed. Deployed for a year, came back to see 7th being played and stopped. I was playing FOW at the time. I saw Warmachine being played - didn't interest me due to a combo of unengaging lore, unengaging models and a play style that did not set the hook.
Can rules drive away players? Sure. Are there diminishing marginal returns on "rules improvements" in terms of retaining/attracting new players? Probably. I am no market analyst, but I figure that players are attacted and retained by a combination of models, lore/background, rules and the ability to get a game in.
I do not see players being driven away right now by rules. COVID makes it hard to judge, but our local 40K game scene was active before COVID hit and came back between lockdowns. New 40K stuff sells out. If you are looking for Warmachine you can find it under the Infinity models in the 50% discount bin.
I started in 2nd Ed, and I found 3rd Ed very jarring. 5th had some good moments, but I have no interest in going back in time to play that edition. I could get behind playing the odd game of 2nd Ed for nostalgia. Its anecdotal, but there are returning players in my area who played 2nd/3rd and have returned for 8th/9th.
Edit - to try to come back to the thread, I suppose that price is also a factor. Entry cost for new players is probably important, perhaps more so than for veterans? Having said that, when I came back from deployment in 2015 I had no interest in forking out for books to keep up with an edition change that didn't seem to be an improvement. The 9th Edition Starter Sets certainly seem to be aimed at folks considering jumping in with regards to price and what you get. The Patrol Boxes are a mixed bag, but I they seem OK in terms of value for someone taking the plunge.
Going back to the OP. It’s kind of a conclusion looking for evidence to support it.
Are GW putting up prices? Yes.
Have they always increased prices? Also yes.
Is this their sole strategy? Absolutely not.
They have their stores for recruitment. They also have officials tie-ins with both The Scout Movement and Duke of Edinburgh, both sizeable youth organisations within the U.K.
We’ve also seen a massive diversification in their offerings in a relatively short period of time.
It’s really not that long ago they only offered 40K and WHFB. Two games, both quite long in the tooth.
Since then, we’ve seen classics redesigned and rereleased (Blood Bowl, Necromunda, Warhammer Quest, Adeptus Titanicus) and entirely new products (Underworld, Kill Team, War Cry, Aeronautica Imperialis).
Each of these offer radically different buy-in prices.
Despite a couple of price rises, Underworlds remains pretty good value for a wargame. Whilst there is some emphasis on getting all the cards, each Warband is ultimately self contained. This keeps the cost of expanding your experience pretty low.
Warhammer Quest? Again, all you need is a core set. BSF is £95 undiscounted. Yes some of the expansions are oddly priced, but not bank breakingly so, and again like Underworlds they’re entirely optional.
Blood Bowl? Depending on how you want to build your team, you only need a couple of boxes at most, maybe the odd star player if you’re so inclined.
Necromunda? Well, one could spend a poo load on it. But at the end of the day, all you need in terms of GW products are the Rulebook and Gangs of the Underhive. That’s right, you don’t even need to use GW’s models - there are plenty of suitable alternatives. Terrain can either be practically free (building your own from scratch) or quite expensive (buy GW’s own kits. My wallet says Hi!).
And so and so forth. On each you could spend a huge chunk of dosh on it if you want to - but the need is greatly reduced.
None of these are short term investments. Each is a game in its own right, and each suits a different depth of pocket.
In short, there’s no evidence whatsoever GW is following a short term plan, whether by accident or design.
The cost is pretty bad right now, yes. The game is still fun, for the most part. You can play Commander without an expensive deck, and of course there's Pauper, there best format.
I would argue the key difference is, deservedly or not (usually not) the cards do have their present value, and powerful cards usually keep it to a degree.
that is true if you live in the US. If your live outside of it, suddenly you find out that some core products are region lockted or that WotC doesn't have a representative in your region, and doesn't plan to have one, making it really hard for some people to get cards they want.
GW is not a very friendly company, but they are still behind stuff Hasbro is willing to do to its customers.
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Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote: Going back to the OP. It’s kind of a conclusion looking for evidence to support it.
Are GW putting up prices? Yes.
Have they always increased prices? Also yes.
Is this their sole strategy? Absolutely not.
They have their stores for recruitment. They also have officials tie-ins with both The Scout Movement and Duke of Edinburgh, both sizeable youth organisations within the U.K.
That is all nice and good for people living in UK. People that have non or one per country GW store, get no where near the support. And some games, just can't be ordered. Even idomitus, UK and US got enough boxs to have left overs, at the same time other places in the world did not. Ordering some of specialists stuff, is impossible, because it is either locked by ordering so much stuff that will never sell, that is just not valid to do for stores, or they plain being told that GW is not going to let FLGS sell the items.
Also don't forget they also use models in "board games" as well to market into bookshops and other retail markets not just hobby stores. I forget the names, but the "lite/different" versions of things like Bloodbowl and warcry. Basically really simple games that are designed with push fit models to get gaming fast and to sell to different demographics. Cornering them and exposing them to the GW brands and the temptation to go further.
I suspect we'll see the very same with their eventual TV shows and they've already done well with their computer game licences.
mrFickle wrote: Would anyone care to venture the price point at which they will step away from the hobby.
Well MY hobby is miniature wargaming.
Believe me, even if I limited my hobby to only playing GW games, I have enough stuff for several of us to play games for the rest of our lives without ever buying another new (or used!) model/book.
As for playing future current GW editions & rising prices?
Like I said, I'm already set for minis for the rest of my life....
So that leaves picking up new rules. The cost of books would have to rise to astronomical prices.
And if that happens? Well, I've already got zero issues pirating stuff
As long as I've got people to play games (GW or otherwise) with my hobby will continue.
So no, there is no price point that will force me out of my hobby.
I think the increasing consequence is more people will rely on eBay purchases, which will severely wound local stores.
GW gets 52% of its revenue from FLGS, 19% from their website, and the rest from retail. An FLGS pays 50% retail so they make whatever else is left depending on discounts.
Daedalus81 wrote: I think the increasing consequence is more people will rely on eBay purchases, which will severely wound local stores.
GW gets 52% of its revenue from FLGS, 19% from their website, and the rest from retail. An FLGS pays 50% retail so they make whatever else is left depending on discounts.
Well too bad for the LGS then. Sounds like GW needs to get its act together regarding pricing. Ya know, address the core root of the problem here.
Daedalus81 wrote: I think the increasing consequence is more people will rely on eBay purchases, which will severely wound local stores.
GW gets 52% of its revenue from FLGS, 19% from their website, and the rest from retail. An FLGS pays 50% retail so they make whatever else is left depending on discounts.
Not sure that follows, and is making an unsafe assumption about overall price elasticity.
eBay simply isn’t all that cheap, unless you’re really working on a fixer upper squad. The second hand market is also finite, limited as it is to models not only already in circulation, but ones people are wanting to move on.
There’s also the question of where the money from eBay sales is going. Since the days of Portent, there’s been an assumption relied upon that said money is not reentering the hobby.
Sure, some will of course be people selling up entirely, never intending to return. Yet others will be people funding a new army by selling off an old one.
eBay prices are also informed by retail. The higher the RRP, the higher the second hand price.
Webstores and any B&M retailers will always be a matter of Comparative Value. Example? This month I bought a pair of Monoliths for my Necrons. They retail on GW for £105.00, which is of course a fat old price tag. Element’s price? £89.25. I could’ve save even more at Darksphere, as their price is £78.75. Their prices will always look more appealing than GW’s own, because of discounts and how many people perceive value.
Whilst only the merest sliver of an example, it shows that for at least Big Ticket prices, eBay offers no to negligible savings.
Let’s expand it, sticking with Necrons because I do like a consistent theme. Necron Warriors on GW are £29. Element and Darksphere £24.65 and £21.75 respectively. eBay? Prices all of the shop. New on sprue (for the closest comparison) seem to be £12.49 upwards, due to Indomitus.
Factor in that not everyone is going to want second hand models. Some will want to build and paint for themselves. That hits the eBay discount somewhat.
In summary? eBay doesn’t look to be the death of FLGS - because both have co-existed for yonks now, amid ongoing GW price increases. Indeed, many FLGS will sell stuff on eBay themself, which given they have overheads they need to cover somewhat mitigates particularly large savings.
If anything I think some of older veteran players are fine with some of the rules and update policies GW have because they remember the Bad Old Days. You cannot say with a straight face that the way GW handles its games now is worse than it was in the late 00's to the mid 10's. They have objectively gotten better at that and you can easily look back and compare.
If there is dissatisfaction and a general revolt brewing against company practices I'd say it's from people who only joined in 8th onwards. These are people with much different expectations and no previous experience of GW's practices, so any feth up or bad decisions look extra bad. Especially within the wider context of where GW games sit, in a world where F2P video games exist, with regular free updates and balance patches. Not only that but you have a wealth of strong 40k video games that have brought and continue to bring people into the game every year and these games can fill an expectation in a new players mind that is not currently being met on the tabletop: that 40k is a proper factional game.
In fact if there's one thing that might unite these two groups, it is that expectation. That, despite Marines being the poster boys, overall the game system and release schedule should at least be somewhat varied and equal. New players who get into the game playing a non-Marine force might come to the conclusion that their chosen faction might never see proper support ever again. New players playing a Marine force and hoping to get lots of varied games in against the various non-Imperium threats the setting has to offer might be sorely disappointed and disillusioned when all they can find are matches against other Loyalists.
All I know is, around my area 8th brought a ton of old players back into the game, many of whom who had not played in 10 years and they've all been mostly fine with how 40k has been handled. Even the ones that never stopped playing remember 6-7th and don't feel a need to go back to that game or that company. But some of the newer evergreen players have been the loudest in their criticisms about the way 40k is continually developed and updated. An older player might shrug off the time between codexes, because at least every faction gets a codex in the edition now and they still come out (delays included) faster than they used to pre-8th. But a newer player has no frame of reference for any of this. All they see is some armies potentially rotting away with un-updated old rules for potentially years and it's not good enough for them.
(Please bear in mind I am not intending these to be completely blanket statements, I know plenty of older players, like myself, are dissatisfied with the release schedule)
Daedalus81 wrote: I think the increasing consequence is more people will rely on eBay purchases, which will severely wound local stores.
GW gets 52% of its revenue from FLGS, 19% from their website, and the rest from retail. An FLGS pays 50% retail so they make whatever else is left depending on discounts.
Not sure that follows, and is making an unsafe assumption about overall price elasticity.
eBay simply isn’t all that cheap, unless you’re really working on a fixer upper squad. The second hand market is also finite, limited as it is to models not only already in circulation, but ones people are wanting to move on.
There’s also the question of where the money from eBay sales is going. Since the days of Portent, there’s been an assumption relied upon that said money is not reentering the hobby.
Sure, some will of course be people selling up entirely, never intending to return. Yet others will be people funding a new army by selling off an old one.
eBay prices are also informed by retail. The higher the RRP, the higher the second hand price.
Webstores and any B&M retailers will always be a matter of Comparative Value. Example? This month I bought a pair of Monoliths for my Necrons. They retail on GW for £105.00, which is of course a fat old price tag. Element’s price? £89.25. I could’ve save even more at Darksphere, as their price is £78.75. Their prices will always look more appealing than GW’s own, because of discounts and how many people perceive value.
Whilst only the merest sliver of an example, it shows that for at least Big Ticket prices, eBay offers no to negligible savings.
Let’s expand it, sticking with Necrons because I do like a consistent theme. Necron Warriors on GW are £29. Element and Darksphere £24.65 and £21.75 respectively. eBay? Prices all of the shop. New on sprue (for the closest comparison) seem to be £12.49 upwards, due to Indomitus.
Factor in that not everyone is going to want second hand models. Some will want to build and paint for themselves. That hits the eBay discount somewhat.
In summary? eBay doesn’t look to be the death of FLGS - because both have co-existed for yonks now, amid ongoing GW price increases. Indeed, many FLGS will sell stuff on eBay themself, which given they have overheads they need to cover somewhat mitigates particularly large savings.
Mm, well, it may be different here in the US. Our eBay listings are all bigger FLGS stores capable of running a webstore. We don't have a lot of directly run webstores like the UK.
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Slayer-Fan123 wrote: Well too bad for the LGS then. Sounds like GW needs to get its act together regarding pricing. Ya know, address the core root of the problem here.
They picked up an additional +400 trade accounts so far this year so they're not there - yet.
Daedalus81 wrote: MtG is the biggest money sink on the planet. I will never go back to that nightmare good rules or not.
Yeah it makes miniature games look affordable.
Yeah and sadly they've made it so regular in updating things that even a casual collector can't really keep up without sinking a lot into it. Its a shame as I do have a fondness of opening random packs; sorting cards; packing and binding them and all that. It can be a nice simple level of enjoyment - likely similar to those who like playing solitaire. Sadly with the costs and speed of how fast a new block appears and one cycles out its just not really viable unless you're willing to start sinking a lot of money regularly into it.
If blocks lasted two years or so and updated slower chances are I would jump in again (since I'm not good enough a player) as a collector; but right now with a 1 year or less cycle and so many products and releases; its just too much volume for me.
Of course its clearly working for MTG so I don't begrudge them
Overread wrote: Yeah and sadly they've made it so regular in updating things that even a casual collector can't really keep up without sinking a lot into it. Its a shame as I do have a fondness of opening random packs; sorting cards; packing and binding them and all that. It can be a nice simple level of enjoyment - likely similar to those who like playing solitaire. Sadly with the costs and speed of how fast a new block appears and one cycles out its just not really viable unless you're willing to start sinking a lot of money regularly into it.
If blocks lasted two years or so and updated slower chances are I would jump in again (since I'm not good enough a player) as a collector; but right now with a 1 year or less cycle and so many products and releases; its just too much volume for me.
I'm not going to pretend that rotation doesn't drive sales, but part of the reason they rotate at the rate they do is that the larger the pool of legal cards the more powerful and potentially unfun the game becomes. This only widens the gulf between the haves and have nots rather than shrinking it because those who have things like duel lands will that stay legal for two years will keep them and thus keep the price of the singles high. Quicker rotation can actually drive down costs by shaking up metas and giving players a chance to discover a new powerful brew before it's obvious to all the card prices spike.
An older player might shrug off the time between codexes, because at least every faction gets a codex in the edition now and they still come out (delays included) faster than they used to pre-8th. But a newer player has no frame of reference for any of this. All they see is some armies potentially rotting away with un-updated old rules for potentially years and it's not good enough for them.
(Please bear in mind I am not intending these to be completely blanket statements, I know plenty of older players, like myself, are dissatisfied with the release schedule)
Thats fair. As an older player I do notice that perception of time has changed quite a bit, and thats probably a universal thing. Anything that came out in 8E still seems fairly new to me, but if I had just gotten out of high school, 3-4 years would seem like an eternity.
The rules/codex turnover doesn't bother me too much except when most egregious.The Vigilus detachments became illegal very quickly, and the PA Death Guard rules even more quickly. I'll remember that the next time we seem to be getting to the tail end of a cycle.
For the big sets, yes there is a limit. If I feel like I'm getting a deal, I'm more inclined to buy. When I was building my Tau, their KT box was out which came with a set of trenches, and the battleforce was a nice deal, so I got those even though I didn't need some of the stuff for the army. If not (The patrol boxes, that big Eldar set a while back, likely the new KT set) then I will pass.
Regarding MtG, if you don't mind playing digitally and have some impulse control, the Arena game is pretty damn good. You get quite a lot of free cards initially and over the course of playing, and the chase cards are very easy to obtain. I only buy the Mastery Pass when a new set comes out ($20) and have at least one of almost every card in the new set, and plenty of wild cards to get anything else I might want on a whim. If you are the type that has to immediately have 4 of every card and/or are vulnerable to buying cosmetic stuff, or are addicted to drafting, it could get expensive very quickly.
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