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 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

From the outside in, we might look at say, Witch Elves and scratch our heads at the their price tag. From the inside, GW will know for certain how many they sell in a given period, because they have total control over their own production.

Witch Elves were ones of those units were GW expereminted with the price tag
Chaos Knights were as well
they wanted to know how different price tags for premium units affect sales and how far they can go

this happens once in a while were one box is really cheap for what you get and the other one overpriced
intial Stormcast and Fyreslayer were there as well (with the Slayers being overpriced like no other kit that came after them)

it is not that they don't do research or know what they are doing but if they make the righ conclusions out of the data
the lower price of Knights did not increased sales of the kits, either because the price does not matter, or because a niche unit within a niche army does not sell much anyway no matter of those who play it buy 1 or 3 boxes

Everyone always complained about the price for sure, but as the above poster mentioned we now have upper-bound price test products like the ridiculously expensive Blood Knights floating around.

You can still get cheaper units, the price just varies wildly between "more than what I think but not silly" and "a small piece of plastic for 30+ quid".

I'm more concerned with how the hobby has changed into cash-in mode much like how that Yugioh card game seems to have since I stopped playing as a kid. Every card is now has an effect, every archetype of the season blows the previous one out of the water with regards to their power levels, FOMO abounds for cards you'll never get a chance to get again and the cards I got in my last booster pack was covered in so much shiny gold crap that I couldn't really read it (In order to convey rarity? Am I a magpie or something?!)

Warhammer seems to be going down the same route, it was never this bad before. You had the skulls thing and event-only models, but nothing as bad as 30 quid for one plastic model or the constant "buy it now before it's gone forever!" vibe. I had already bought the female catachan in the one week where she was available, but only realised a few weeks after that I didn't actually like the model and wouldn't have bothered picking it up if it was a mainstay model.

On top of that GW is also cashing in on 30+ years of lore mystery and what-ifs. I reckon it'll be time for Age Of Sigmar part 2 once all the primarchs and the emperor are for sale. They'll have to since they'll have to make new lore at that point (And I've only heard negative things about any new lore for games they've made for the last few years, mostly AOS and primaris stuff)

Racerguy180 wrote:
The part that passes me off is that you have games like Titanicus that are some of the best they've ever done contrasted with current 40k.

I think 40k has to many sacred cows when they are running a dairy farm, there is a lot that sorta just exists in the game that they have left even though “Drastic” edition changes.
It take them forever to finally do a move stat, and it’s almost like we had to lose initiative in the process. Leaving a lot of the factions down in defence that they need to support the design they still seem to design around.

a fat guy wrote:
I'm more concerned with how the hobby has changed into cash-in mode much like how that Yugioh card game seems to have since I stopped playing as a kid. Every card is now has an effect, every archetype of the season blows the previous one out of the water with regards to their power levels, FOMO abounds for cards you'll never get a chance to get again and the cards I got in my last booster pack was covered in so much shiny gold crap that I couldn't really read it (In order to convey rarity? Am I a magpie or something?!)

Warhammer seems to be going down the same route, it was never this bad before. You had the skulls thing and event-only models, but nothing as bad as 30 quid for one plastic model or the constant "buy it now before it's gone forever!" vibe. I had already bought the female catachan in the one week where she was available, but only realised a few weeks after that I didn't actually like the model and wouldn't have bothered picking it up if it was a mainstay model.

That comparison is lacking for a few reasons:
- I can't remember a single limited model that made any splash on the gaming scene. That one re-imagined Space Marine with a Grav something (?) being my only memory of receiving at least some attention.
- Limited models can be easily converted or kitbashed, if you miss the opportunity to buy them and don't want to go to Ebay.
- As long as there is a playable entry for it in your codex, that model is purchasable from GW directly for everybody.
- You can buy what you want without relying on a lucky draw from a booster pack.
- As the balance pendulum swings, your old models might get a breath of fresh air. See Firstborn Marines for a current example.

Limited Models are a cash grab, because that’s the whole point of them.

I for one love them, to the degree I founded the Loot Group to help people avoid scalpers as much as possible. Given in the past I’ve placed orders for around 100 models, I’d say I’m not the only one,

They’re something a little different. Sculpts and looks which wouldn’t necessarily get to see the light of day. Others are just neat alternatives for Standard Models (the re-opening Chaplain being a notably lovely model, and a popular Loot Item).

None turn a middling army into all conquering one, because they lack special rules. Sure, the odd one comes with unique equipment, or at least sculpts wise a unique combination of equipment.

But none of the them as essential purchases. Instead, they’re bait. A way to get foot traffic to a specific location at a specific time, and from there hopefully sell more and generate repeat custom.

GW are doing gangbusters. They have definitely turned the ship around from the end of the Kirby era when they were losing market position. They are back to being top dog.

I think moving away from Start Collecting sets to patrol sets is a mistake, but that's because I really like the value in most Start Collecting sets. I imagine they sell extremely well, but maybe they cannabilise sales on other kits too much? In any case, I will probably pick up the last couple I am interested in sooner than later in case they go out of production.

But GW are kicking arse and taking names these days, even if everything they do is not to my taste. That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.

|if the future patrol boxs are going to be like the DA one, having them may not be a bad idea.
A box with no bad units, and multiple units you want or need is good for all new players, maybe even some more expiriance ones.

I think it is great that you could buy a box of blade guard, a DA patrol box followed by the DW or SW patrol box, and have a good army to start playing. Start collecting boxs were cheaper, but they were full of units that people never used.

On the flip side we get something like heroes of the chapter, which is a bit crazy considering the whole DI cost like twice as much +bit more, but came with more then twice the models and a second army, books etc.

 Da Boss wrote:
That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.

Now, can they stop from slipping back into Kirby habits? I see the recent, constant price rising,moving away from really cheap starters/battle boxes as a sign that despite having a social media team now, they're essentially the same. They just reigned in the visible parts of the corporate disdain for the customer (that exists in any corporation really) for the time being.

I think the start collecting boxes were a great intro product for kids when they were a bit cheaper. Now that they are more expensive, they are not really in that range any more, unless you buy them at some sort of discount. I think the patrol boxes are just past a certain value of sticker shock that makes them less acceptable as purchases for someone starting out. Just my view on the psychology of it, I might be wrong. I know I am less likely to pick them up, even if I would have spent more on different Start Collecting boxes. But then, I don't mind if models are not used in games because I am happy to build and paint them for use in roleplaying games and so on.

To me, they're far less enticing than the SC! boxes (even at the raised price), the price point is past easy, almost impulse-buy tier into "do i want this" level, and that changes their contents from "a little light but enticing" to "that's very little plastic for the price". They sit exactly at the wrong price-to-model ratio for me, expensive enough that I'd want more in them, not expensive enough to have a lot of models like the battlebox deals.

a_typical_hero wrote:

That comparison is lacking for a few reasons:
- I can't remember a single limited model that made any splash on the gaming scene. That one re-imagined Space Marine with a Grav something (?) being my only memory of receiving at least some attention.
- Limited models can be easily converted or kitbashed, if you miss the opportunity to buy them and don't want to go to Ebay.
- As long as there is a playable entry for it in your codex, that model is purchasable from GW directly for everybody.
- You can buy what you want without relying on a lucky draw from a booster pack.
- As the balance pendulum swings, your old models might get a breath of fresh air. See Firstborn Marines for a current example.

I'm not making the point that limited models break the game, but I should have made that clearer! I would have mentioned codex/power level creep for new releases if you want a closer comparison to Yugioh's power creep. My overall point there was that both systems are cashing in on their original value, for the card game it seems to be immediately more detrimental (they can gak off with their power creep xyz, tuner, cyber, pendulum flights of fancy, no way I'm going to play a more complex and one-sided game for more money) than it is for 40K (I can still easily get into the game without even knowing about the FOMO aspect). I'm also not trying to draw such contrasting comparisons between the two systems such that you'd compare the booster packs to collecting warhammer. We're getting into the realm of ridiculousness if we go down that route, I was focusing moreso on things like the cheapening (manufactured scarcity, power creep) of the appealing aspects of the hobbies (tactics, rare collectibles)

I'm also not sure why you're mentioning kitbashing/converting limited models? The entire point of them is their rarity. From the point of view of a collector, rather than a gamer, I wouldn't bother trying as it would just feel like a cheap imitation.

Also the pendulum (hah, I like what you did there!) largely swings in favour of the latest models/releases (or archetypes in yugioh's case). Firstborn getting a boost doesn't seem to have actually made them better than primaris from what I've heard though, but it does feed into the primaris replacing firstborn idea. I think Auspex tactics did a comparison and found primaris to be marginally better over.

 alextroy wrote:
People have been predicting the downfall of GW based on their business practices as long as I have been in the hobby. And yet somehow 45 year old GW is doing great in the middle of a pandemic by being GW.

Yep. People have been making variations on the claims in this thread on GW-related Internet forums as long as GW-related Internet forums have been a thing. GW even had their own, back in the day, which they shut down due to the endless pissing, moaning and doom-mongering. Plus ça change.

To be fair, they did make some severe misteps and lose a fair chunk of the player base toward the end of the Kirby era. They've since recovered because they stopped doing as much stupid crap.

I think that's good, because they've made lots of cool stuff I am interested in and I think GW existing is good for the general hobby of playing with or painting miniatures.

 Da Boss wrote:
To be fair, they did make some severe misteps and lose a fair chunk of the player base toward the end of the Kirby era. They've since recovered because they stopped doing as much stupid crap.

I think that's good, because they've made lots of cool stuff I am interested in and I think GW existing is good for the general hobby of playing with or painting miniatures.

True. But I think this probably demonstrates that even if there are missteps, GW are big and popular enough to course correct and recover, rather than the "GW are DOOMED, any minute now!" narrative so beloved of internet fora. Obviously you can never say never, but I'm old enough to remember people confidently predicting the imminent demise of GW for around twenty years now.

 Nazrak wrote:

 alextroy wrote:
People have been predicting the downfall of GW based on their business practices as long as I have been in the hobby. And yet somehow 45 year old GW is doing great in the middle of a pandemic by being GW.

Yep. People have been making variations on the claims in this thread on GW-related Internet forums as long as GW-related Internet forums have been a thing. GW even had their own, back in the day, which they shut down due to the endless pissing, moaning and doom-mongering. Plus ça change.

Absolutely, but they were in a bad way before the CEO change.

I'd argue that they're only doing as well as they're doing now because of a combination of focusing almost solely on their cash cow factions and essentially doing an end times for 40K that's gonna take so long to finish (what like twenty-plus primarch-level models to bring out? Loads of subfactions yet to be brought back or fleshed out?) that by the time the 40K end times is finished, Age of Sigmar may have gained the nostalgic fondness for itself that Fantasy has (the currently young main target demograph will probably be 15 years older at that point) and the cycle will begin anew.

Or I dunno maybe the lack of depth in AOS will hamper it? I mean fantasy 6th edition rulebook feels more like a D&D tome and that really appealed to me. I can't say the same for anything GW published in recent memory except maybe the traitor legions supplement.

to be fair, GW was very close to fall when Kirby took over because of their mis-calulation in costs for translations and sales for specialist games

(like BB and BFG, were they run out of boxes/models in UK but had piles sitting in Germany and Italy that did not sell, but because the gaming material was more expensive than the models inside, it was useless and not owrth getting it back and re-pack them)

and again during the release of AoS, without the change in management and continue on their plans for "games", it would look very different now

also being lucky that their biggest competitors struggeled at the time were GW was weak or had bad ideas as well helped them too

Yes and no-

Yes the older/veteran gamers will leave the hobby/stop supporting GWs current line for several reasons

.They have a large enough collection
.They stop playing for real life reasons
.Or like many of us they do not like the direction of the game has gone and prefer to go back to playing an older edition that we already have all the models/books/codexes for.

No because GW is a self built monopoly in the gaming market. they raise prices and players buy in, they raise them a little more and players still buy in. they write terrible rules and still people buy in. As long as GW continues to dominate the market, people will continue to buy into a circular feeding frenzy.

People buy in because it is widely accessible. it has became so widely accessible because so many people have bought in creating the largest player base in the niche hobby market.

The model has worked for so many years i don't see GW changing it anytime soon unless there is a huge drop in sales.

They do seem to be trying to move the "boxed set" tier of purchase from an occasional offering a few times a year to a more normalized purchase. Between the 3 centerpiece over $100 Necrons, the patrol boxes, and more boxed sets in the pipeline, it does seem to be a trend.

As to whether it is damaging their future or not, they could be, but it doesn't look that way to me right now.

You rang?

I do think 3d printing is very much a major way forward here, but how quickly it would eat GW's overinflated bottom line was unquestionably overestimated.

And the recasters, using a faster, cheaper, far more accurate process than 3D printing haven't hurt them either. If you think 3D printing is going to damage them, then you must also be assuming that the economy of scale doesn't matter, that they themselves can't use it, and that 3D printing will, in short order, become as ubiquitous as microwaves very soon. This is another "reset the clock" type argument. Last time we had it in depth, most of Dakka seemed pretty convinced it would begin over-taking GW's profits by 2015. lol

I don't want to derail the thread, and I think just about everyone has seen my essays on why this really isn't likely any time in the next 20+ years, but DM if you want details.

I'd been meaning to ask about that - I used to play what used to be called Vanilla Marines back in 3rd/4th and at the time I definitely didn't feel like GW was just endlessly tongue-bathing my posterior with rules and releases. I'd wondered if that was blindness born of Marine Privilege or if right now genuinely is the worst the Marine oversaturation has ever been.

They've always had two things. They've always been the "poster boys" and they've always been guaranteed a codex every edition. Ok three things. lol They've always had a few more kits than everyone else. But for my entire time on Dakka, most of the conversation was about how bad they were, and, they have never, ever, seen what is now a 2+ year CONSTANT release cycle like this. No army has. Ever. And this is happening in the face of armies like Dark Eldar getting a solid revamp in 5th, and then doing nothing but LOSING UNITS every edition since 5th. Armies like Craftworld Eldar and IG are running 20+ year old sculpts, but we're on our 9th "Primaris LT". It's never been this utterly ridiculous, and I say this as a long-time marine player who actually shelved his army in 8th because of how dumb it was getting.

So what's different now vs then? Why are you noticing it NOW? Well, easy. I've said this before, and I'm going to repeat it. With the Primaris stuff you're witnessing a slow & steady roll out of an entire product line.
Think about it. If the Primaris were their own brand new/stand-alone force (like the Sisters for ex)? GW would've dropped most of these kits on you in one massive go, spanning about 2-3 months. With misc stuff straggling in after that. Why? Because they wouldn't be a very functional army otherwise.
But while the Primaris are a new product line, they aren't a standalone force. So GW can stretch out their release without the units being unplayable. They don't need to drop it all on us at once. But at the same time they aren't going to spend 20 years building out the line ala where the classic marines have ended up.

Primaris are, and have been, a stand alone force for some time now. People are noticing the release cycle now, because it has literally never happened like this before. That's what happens when an unprecedented event occurs. People tend to notice. This is unhealthy, and just not great for long term growth of the game/hobby. Feel free to disagree, but go look at the half a million threads where, 6 months ago Dakka was divided, and now, even the most ardent marine supporters from back then are starting to agree that this is all fairly out of hand.

Pardon? You were dead on--GW underwent massive reform in business strategy and how they interacted with the community in 2016. There was a sizable move towards long-term thinking. It's just the last couple years things that progress has been eroded.

Changing the way they engage with the community was in response to the failed strategy they had under-taken when they killed all their online comms outlets. It is a good long term strategy. It is also the only long-term strategy they engage in, and the one that best allows them to drive their short term goals more easily. How better to hype the new, "one time only, limited edition XYZ" than to do a "special preview on Twitch"? Also, look at what has happened to edition length. It's not exactly gotten longer has it?

Have "special edition" products increased, or decreased? How often do they rely on FOMO now? These are all signs of a company almost solely focused on short term profits. That said, they seem to be pratty darn good at it, so it's not likely going to be an issue for them.

Cronch wrote:

 Da Boss wrote:
That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.

Now, can they stop from slipping back into Kirby habits? I see the recent, constant price rising,moving away from really cheap starters/battle boxes as a sign that despite having a social media team now, they're essentially the same. They just reigned in the visible parts of the corporate disdain for the customer (that exists in any corporation really) for the time being.

Price increases are part of business. Just because governments don't keep pace with inflation doesn't mean businesses won't.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Now, here’s a radical thought.

Is it just possible that GW do in fact know what they’re doing, and are doing so with far more actual data points available to them than us mere mood are privy to?

Very much this. I'm surprised that more people don't talk about what GW is doing right.

 aphyon wrote:
Yes and no-

Yes the older/veteran gamers will leave the hobby/stop supporting GWs current line for several reasons

.They have a large enough collection
.They stop playing for real life reasons
.Or like many of us they do not like the direction of the game has gone and prefer to go back to playing an older edition that we already have all the models/books/codexes for.

Yes because GW is a self built monopoly in the gaming market. they raise prices and players buy in, they raise them a little more and players still buy in. they write terrible rules and still people buy in. As long as GW continues to dominate the market, people will continue to buy into a circular feeding frenzy.

People buy in because it is widely accessible. it has became so widely accessible because so many people have bought in creating the largest player base in the niche hobby market.

The model has worked for so many years i don't see GW changing it anytime soon unless there is a huge drop in sales.

GW had a huge drop in sales. And then they recovered. Why? Because they made improvements.

So to pretend like GW hobbyists are mindless drones unable to discern any reality is frankly quite insulting.

 Daedalus81 wrote:

Cronch wrote:

 Da Boss wrote:
That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.

Now, can they stop from slipping back into Kirby habits? I see the recent, constant price rising,moving away from really cheap starters/battle boxes as a sign that despite having a social media team now, they're essentially the same. They just reigned in the visible parts of the corporate disdain for the customer (that exists in any corporation really) for the time being.

Price increases are part of business. Just because governments don't keep pace with inflation doesn't mean businesses won't.

This point gets brought up every time, but to my knowledge GW isn't located in Elbonia with 30% annual inflation.

GW has always focused on short term gains. The problem is there's enough "whales" who don't care and still throw money at GW no matter what. So as long as they remain profitable (or get more profitable despite not doing much different) they have no reason to change since it's working.

 Daedalus81 wrote:
Price increases are part of business. Just because governments don't keep pace with inflation doesn't mean businesses won't.

GW's price increases significantly outpace inflation, though.

Take Cadians for example, since the sculpts haven't changed in two decades- Cadian Shock Troops released in '03 at $30 for a box of 20. Today it costs $36 for a box of 10. That's an increase of 140%, whereas inflation has increased prices by 40% over the same time period. If Cadians followed inflation, we'd be looking at $21 for a box of 10.

You don't have to look far to see people getting priced out by the increases. As much as people say 'this is how GW's always done it', there has to be a point where it becomes unsustainable.

 catbarf wrote:

 Daedalus81 wrote:
Price increases are part of business. Just because governments don't keep pace with inflation doesn't mean businesses won't.

GW's price increases significantly outpace inflation, though.

Take Cadians for example, since the sculpts haven't changed in two decades- Cadian Shock Troops released in '03 at $30 for a box of 20. Today it costs $36 for a box of 10. That's an increase of 140%, whereas inflation has increased prices by 40% over the same time period. If Cadians followed inflation, we'd be looking at $21 for a box of 10.

You don't have to look far to see people getting priced out by the increases. As much as people say 'this is how GW's always done it', there has to be a point where it becomes unsustainable.

That doesn't mean they're restricted to just inflation.

If they don't turn that extra cash into improvements like copywrighters or continuing to expand specialist games then I'd be pissed, but seeing as they're bringing back the Old World...

Also it has never been easier to buy discounted minis. The lifting of the webstore restrictions has made buying online simple - though one should still considering sacrificing that extra $20 to your local FLGS as a form of dues ( applies more to the US, I guess ).

GW has always focused on short term gains. The problem is there's enough "whales" who don't care and still throw money at GW no matter what. So as long as they remain profitable (or get more profitable despite not doing much different) they have no reason to change since it's working.

IDK if that's really true. There are a lot of "whales", but look at what happened in 7th. Profits hit an all-time-low, a non-GW game (X-Wing) passed 40k in popularity and even sales for what I believe is the first time ever, a huge number of tournaments shut down, and many LGS's, for the first in a LONG time, either stopped carrying GW all together, cut back in orders, or, at least threatened the trade sales reps with cancellation if they couldn't stop the bleeding.

"Whales" didn't seem to be helping.

It looks like Roundtree will be stepping down this year so we'll be at the whims of whomever is appointed. I just hope the board has a good amount of sense on the matter.

 Da Boss wrote:
But GW are kicking arse and taking names these days, even if everything they do is not to my taste. That is good for the long term health of the company, much better than the Kirby era.

Was going to say, as a company, the last time I thought they might be in trouble was before they booted Kirby.

I hate the idea of $30 infantry models. But some people pay that much for them, that's the market speaking. It's not driving anyone away, that's just GW achieving optimal pricing. Same with Start Collecting boxes.

The long run doesn't matter, the future is a fantasy because there are no guarantees. If I was going to point to strategic threats, resin printers could do a lot more damage.

Resin Printers and 3D Scanners that are accurate down to 2 microns.

You hear me GW? I can scan your sprues now and print an entire army for about 1/10th the cost.

You can't stop me, these are the End Times.

 Daedalus81 wrote:
It looks like Roundtree will be stepping down this year so we'll be at the whims of whomever is appointed. I just hope the board has a good amount of sense on the matter.

Ack! I hadn't caught that. Do we know why? That seriously bums me out. I had given up the game in 7th. Came back in 8th when I saw all the positive changes he had fostered in the company as a whole. He will be a tough act to follow. Especially given how quickly he got things turned around.

If I was going to point to strategic threats, resin printers could do a lot more damage.

Keep pointing. Let me know when your arm gets tired.