ced1106 wrote:
You can always pledge $1 for access to the PM.

How many outstanding KS projects does CMON have?

 ced1106 wrote:
Looks like it's HQ'ed in Singapore, but trades on the HK exchange (: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMON_Limited

Dang -- only one staff member to prevent shipping. ):

 Gallahad wrote:
Hmm, that is very interesting. Whatever CMON is paying Asmodee they should get a refund. I don't think a single ASOIAF release has been on time since they started using Asmodee.

NewTruthNeomaxim wrote:

 Gallahad wrote:
Hmm, that is very interesting. Whatever CMON is paying Asmodee they should get a refund. I don't think a single ASOIAF release has been on time since they started using Asmodee.

Don't worry! They've doubled down and as of June Asmodee is direct distributor of the entire game... they swear everything will be fine going forward. I mean... when has Asmodee ever disappointed?

*sigh*

I would sell this game to literally any other publisher, as long as they left Mike Shinall in charge. Literally anyone would do a better job distributing this game.

Welcome to the past, time travelers!

We hope you are all safe and well.

As informed on the last update (update#16) we were interrupting the warehouse operations until April 14th as a safety measure since recently one of our staff members had close contact with a family member that tested positive for COVID-19.

We’re glad to inform that during this period our staff member continued to not present any symptoms and that assembly, packing, and shipment of the Time Machine products should resume on Tuesday, April 14th, as estimated. However,we have been informed that a few countries are shutting down completely and that their shipping services are temporarily closed. According to the information provided to us so far, the list of countries include Brunei, Malaysia, India, Philippines, and Taiwan.UK is also interrupting all shipments until the situation improves and other European countries are also under restrictions.

Considering the current situation we’re in, and the sheer amount of European pledges we have, looking to optimize the shipping process, to prevent additional custom fees and taxes for the backers, and to reduce risks of shipmentsbouncing back or being held at postal offices, we have decided to assemble and separate European pledges to be shipped in bulk to our European hub, which will then take care of the deliveries in the safest possible way directly to your homes once situationis back to normal. For our European backers this means that it will take a little longer to have pledges arriving to you, however, once deliveries start they should be fast paced, instead of spread across multiple weeks. Plus, since they will be mailed internally,backers should face no further custom fees. Deliveries for the Americas, Australia, Africa, and Asia will continue to be shipped as they’re assembled.

We once again apologize for all the hiccups and delays with this project.

See you back in the future!

 Gallahad wrote:

NewTruthNeomaxim wrote:

 Gallahad wrote:
Hmm, that is very interesting. Whatever CMON is paying Asmodee they should get a refund. I don't think a single ASOIAF release has been on time since they started using Asmodee.

Don't worry! They've doubled down and as of June Asmodee is direct distributor of the entire game... they swear everything will be fine going forward. I mean... when has Asmodee ever disappointed?

*sigh*

I would sell this game to literally any other publisher, as long as they left Mike Shinall in charge. Literally anyone would do a better job distributing this game.

Honestly at even this hint of trouble for CMON I felt a burning need to go panic buy a bunch of ASOIAF stuff. Best game I've played in ages and the distribution issues are throttling it in the crib.

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
https://icv2.com/articles/news/view/45581/annual-report-delayed-trading-suspended-cmon?fbclid=IwAR1hRiYjzZt81ecPPWvgiLZwxon8cCXjNyBDNzXMN6Jqlgxj-GQRP6gog6Q

probably just typical late submission nonsense (plus a smattering of global pandemic to slow everything down) like their KS updates, but worth considering when Ahkh launches

""Going concern" is a highly technical accounting term referring to a situation where net current liabilities are greater than net current assets. This happens for CMON from time to time since we record funds received from Kickstarter as both a liability and an asset - the money is an asset we received from our backers, but it is also a liability we owe to them that is not fulfilled until we ship our products. Since we use the funds to pay for molds, production and development of those products, and some of these are considered "Non-Current assets”, the asset column goes down as we use the money to fulfill the development of the game. Once we ship the game, the project goes back into the black because we can take the liability for the Kickstarter funds off the books.

This is highly misleading, and in my opinion, irresponsible.

A Going Concern issue is not explicitly about the difference between current-assets and current-liabilities. It is about the company's ability to operate over the 12 months following the end of the accounting period.

Yes, current-assets and current-liabilities are very important in determining whether a company can continue operating. However, CMON's article assume that CPA firms can not take mold cost into account and bifurcate the true cost of the KS.

Essentially, they are assuming the CPA firm's hand are tied. This is not the case. A Going Concern issue is the CPA firm's doubt [with the current evidence that the firm has] of whether CMON can continue operating. . . . . . It is a gross simplification to say it is simply an equation.

As somebody who analyses companies' creditworthiness for a living, this doesn't look great. However, the range of outcomes is wide and even after the share price has basically halved year-to-date, the company still had a market cap of about ~US$17m. It looks like the last quoted share price was on 31 March however, which does not bode well as the trading will probably gap downwards if/when re-opened.

I took a look at the figures and in all honesty, based on the last year's trading, the company looks under-valued - it spat out HKD76m in EBITDA 9M19 if you can believe the numbers, and with HKD85m of debt - it effectively has an EV multiple of 2.7x - very low for a publicly traded company.

On review, provided the P&L figures are legit, the most likely cause of the Going Concern opinion is the short-term/on-demand debt position - which if not refinanced or committed for more than a year, poses a problem for CMON. However, there seems to be a decent equity buffer for lenders so I don't really foresee a refinancing issue being a deal-breaker.

Thank you for that analysis. If you were a betting man, would you bet CMON will be around in a year without a receiver?

Wow straight to the punchy questions!! To be honest, I'd need to review their last audits in detail to have a firm view in order to take a position (which would take a few hours to do properly). Gut feel, yes I think they would be around. The Sep-2019 9mo YTD figures actually look pretty good, although historic audited results are very lumpy - generally 1 good year followed by 1 bad year - presumably due to timing issues around big releases. For the record, FY18 was a bad year, so you'd hope FY19 would be a good one, however looking back they have a track record of generating positive Cash from operations but then swing well into the red every year after capex and acquisitions. So I'm not sure how this can be sustainable as typically you'd look for a business to be trading at a cash surplus in most years to be viable.

Okay screw it you tempted me to look at the 2018 audits... the debt disclosures are not great (appears to me as quite amateur and some typos) but looks like they have about US$5m of bank loans which they took out in Singapore, together with $3.3m of trade loans. However of this debt $3.8m was due in 2019 which may be why they didn't get the clean audit.

What people may be interested in if you are owed a game/money by CMON is that the bank debt is heavily secured (over mortgages and the bank deposits), so your unsecured claim would likely get zero in a wind-up scenario.

All in all I strongly suspect the going concern attestation from the auditors is in relation to the short term debt maturities of the company and inability to refinance/extend these.

 Boss Salvage wrote:
Can't decide if I'm happy or not about no add-ons or higher tiers for this one. While I really appreciate $100 one size fits all kickstarters ... I also earmarked a lot of funds to go hard on Ankh, and I appear to have just gone as hard as I can already