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2016/04/13 21:56:19
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
“Yes. I like Marco Rubio. Yeah. I could,” he told Powers. “There are people I have in mind in terms of vice president. I just haven’t told anybody names … I do like Marco. I do like (John) Kasich … I like (Scott) Walker actually in a lot of ways. I hit him very hard … But I’ve always liked him. There are people I like, but I don’t think they like me because I have hit them hard
I guess Rosie O'Donnell and Bill Maher said they were too busy. Seriously, Kasich aside, he humiliated these people. No way they'd want to work for him unless they are devoid of pride.
Conspiracy Theory Time: Should Trump be the nominee, they will make sure the real GOP leadership's choice will be the VP on the ballot. And then Trump will suffer a convenient, but totally untraceable, accident the day after he is sworn in.
"Through the darkness of future past, the magician longs to see.
One chants out between two worlds: Fire, walk with me." - Twin Peaks
"You listen to me. While I will admit to a certain cynicism, the fact is that I am a naysayer and hatchetman in the fight against violence. I pride myself in taking a punch and I'll gladly take another because I choose to live my life in the company of Gandhi and King. My concerns are global. I reject absolutely revenge, aggression, and retaliation. The foundation of such a method... is love. I love you Sheriff Truman." - Twin Peaks
2016/04/14 00:23:56
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Conspiracy Theory Time: Should Trump be the nominee, they will make sure the real GOP leadership's choice will be the VP on the ballot. And then Trump will suffer a convenient, but totally untraceable, accident the day after he is sworn in.
Who needs an accident? Just let him start to do any of the illegal/unconstitutional things he’s promising to do, and then start the impeachment procedures. I wonder how long it would take when everyone in DC wants him gone?
Nate does superb job in estimating the delegates Trump would need and how he needs to perform...
In conclusion:
Although our panel’s original estimates had Trump finishing with 1,175 pledged delegates, my revised deterministic projections have him at 1,155, and the probabilistic version has him at 1,159. I wouldn’t make a huge deal of the differences given the considerable uncertainty in the race, however. Basically, flipping Indiana from a probable win to a probable loss outweighs the gains I have Trump making relative to our original projections in New York and Connecticut. In other states, the differences from the original projections are minor.
At the same time, the path-to-1,237 scenario doesn’t look all that far-fetched — certainly not as compared with, say, Bernie Sanders’s quixotic path to catch Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates. Our path-to-1,237 path has Trump sweeping almost everything in the Northeast, winning Indiana and winning California by a solid-but-not-spectacular margin. I wouldn’t bet on that parlay at even odds, but it’s far from impossible. There’s also a reasonable variation; Trump could win slightly fewer delegates than I’m expecting in New York and Connecticut but make them up with a bigger win in California. So we’re not yet at the point where absolutely everything has to go right for Trump to clinch 1,237 delegates after California; although he can’t afford major setbacks such as losing Indiana or Maryland.
Keep in mind, however, that the question of whether Trump will get 1,237 bound delegates by California is not the same as the question of whether he’ll win the Republican nomination. If he’s close, Trump could still get some uncommitted delegates to come along with him — especially some of the 54 from Pennsylvania if he wins that state. He could also win on the second or later ballot in Cleveland, although I wouldn’t want to count on that if I were in Trump’s shoes.
Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
2016/04/14 02:25:24
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Ahtman wrote: Don't Crazy Horse's people hate the idea of that sculpture as Crazy Horse didn't want a sculpture, the mountain it is being made out of is considered sacred so it is like making a Starbucks out of the Sistine Chapel, and the original sculptor did it (and the faces) out of a 'feth nature I rule all this' kind of attitude?
Can we build a giant General Sherman behind him pointing a Colt Peacemaker?
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2016/04/14 16:35:28
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all
We love our superheroes because they refuse to give up on us. We can analyze them out of existence, kill them, ban them, mock them, and still they return, patiently reminding us of who we are and what we wish we could be.
"the play's the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the king,
2016/04/14 17:23:36
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Also, yet again, these laws over-zealously go after an issue that doesn't exist. The type of voter fraud that this addresses is practically non-existent. They stop more people from voting than actual instances of fraud.
edit: Also, more than just stopping people from voting, they dissuade people from going in the first place. And with our voting number as low as they are, that's the exact opposite of what we need.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/04/14 17:34:29
Homosexuality is the #1 cause of gay marriage.
kronk wrote: Every pizza is a personal sized pizza if you try hard enough and believe in yourself.
sebster wrote: Yes, indeed. What a terrible piece of cultural imperialism it is for me to say that a country shouldn't murder its own citizens
BaronIveagh wrote: Basically they went from a carrot and stick to a smaller carrot and flanged mace.
2016/04/14 17:39:39
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
The issue is with Wisconsin's DMV practices... not the Voter ID laws.
Wisconsin DMV's are notoriously bad.
I'm sure they'll be rushing to provide them with extra help any minute now.
Well, once Nov. is out of the way anyway.
The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all
We love our superheroes because they refuse to give up on us. We can analyze them out of existence, kill them, ban them, mock them, and still they return, patiently reminding us of who we are and what we wish we could be.
"the play's the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the king,
2016/04/14 17:47:25
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Also, yet again, these laws over-zealously go after an issue that doesn't exist. The type of voter fraud that this addresses is practically non-existent. They stop more people from voting than actual instances of fraud.
edit: Also, more than just stopping people from voting, they dissuade people from going in the first place. And with our voting number as low as they are, that's the exact opposite of what we need.
But it's pretty much the entire point of the laws, to pretty much disenfranchise the poor and underclasses.
See politics isn't about real democracy, it's about getting what *you* want done, even if means making it so the "other guys" can't vote!
-James
2016/04/14 17:51:43
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Also, yet again, these laws over-zealously go after an issue that doesn't exist. The type of voter fraud that this addresses is practically non-existent. They stop more people from voting than actual instances of fraud.
edit: Also, more than just stopping people from voting, they dissuade people from going in the first place. And with our voting number as low as they are, that's the exact opposite of what we need.
But it's pretty much the entire point of the laws, to pretty much disenfranchise the poor and underclasses.
See politics isn't about real democracy, it's about getting what *you* want done, even if means making it so the "other guys" can't vote!
Yup.
Homosexuality is the #1 cause of gay marriage.
kronk wrote: Every pizza is a personal sized pizza if you try hard enough and believe in yourself.
sebster wrote: Yes, indeed. What a terrible piece of cultural imperialism it is for me to say that a country shouldn't murder its own citizens
BaronIveagh wrote: Basically they went from a carrot and stick to a smaller carrot and flanged mace.
2016/04/14 18:01:48
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
He couldn't get a photo ID from Wisconsin because the state of Illinois had his name wrong on his birth certificate. How is it Wisconsin's fault that Illinois couldn't get his name right? If Illinois had the right name on is birth certificate he wouldn't have had a problem. The time and money he spent was done to try to get Illinois to fix his birth certificate, that's an Illinois problem not a Wisconsin problem. He needed to use his birth certificate because he was unemployed and living with family in Wisconsin so he didn't have other documents that somebody who had a job or residence in Wisconsin would have had.
I don't understand why he wasn't issued a provisional ballot to use to cast his vote but I also don't see why Wisconsin should be responsible for fixing clerical errors made by Illinois.
Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur
2016/04/14 19:11:39
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Then the guy with the Illinois birth certificate with a clerical error should have been allowed to use one. The article says he voted in the past but doesn't specify if that was in Illinois or Wisconsin. If he voted in Wisconsin previously he should have been on the voter rolls and been able to cast a provisional ballot if he didn't have ID.
Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur
2016/04/14 19:20:55
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
The camps are pretty firmly staked out on voter ID laws-
Pro: Identification is a legitimate requirement of many official processes. It is necessary to combat fraud and illegal voting
Con: ID laws place an unreasonable burden on certain groups and act to disenfranchise the poor and minorities. Voter impersonation is a theoretical threat that there is no real evidence to support.
I am pretty conservative in my stances on immigration and travel, but having worked with the poor for almost a decade, I have seen how hard it can be for the poor and elderly to get "official" identification. The obstacles are often indirect such as lack of access to transportation, lack of education/language ability to understand processes and requirements, etc. but no less real. A lot of these individuals struggled to get identification for things that offered very real benefits, such a SSI/SSD. For something like voting, I can't imagine going through such effort.
And given that turnout is currently abysmal and such laws do not seem to address any actual problem, I cannot support such government expansionism to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
-James
2016/04/14 19:36:17
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Con: ID laws place an unreasonable burden on certain groups and act to disenfranchise the poor and minorities.
Not to pick on you, but there are other things we ask of our government that requires various levels of ID.
Case point: In St. Charles County, Missouri - in order to get a Marriage License, you'd have to show two forms of valid/non-expired identifications, with one of them needing to have a picture ID. (plus proof of resident in the county and a $75 fee)
Surely if Voter ID laws were to "disenfranchise the poor/minorites"... then, these Marriage License requirements is just as hard (if not harder). Leaving the SSM aside, how come we haven't heard of these "marriage tax" that disproportionally impacts the poors??
Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
2016/04/14 19:40:19
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
jmurph wrote: The camps are pretty firmly staked out on voter ID laws-
Pro: Identification is a legitimate requirement of many official processes. It is necessary to combat fraud and illegal voting
Con: ID laws place an unreasonable burden on certain groups and act to disenfranchise the poor and minorities. Voter impersonation is a theoretical threat that there is no real evidence to support.
I am pretty conservative in my stances on immigration and travel, but having worked with the poor for almost a decade, I have seen how hard it can be for the poor and elderly to get "official" identification. The obstacles are often indirect such as lack of access to transportation, lack of education/language ability to understand processes and requirements, etc. but no less real. A lot of these individuals struggled to get identification for things that offered very real benefits, such a SSI/SSD. For something like voting, I can't imagine going through such effort.
And given that turnout is currently abysmal and such laws do not seem to address any actual problem, I cannot support such government expansionism to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
I don't disagree with the cons that you listed and personally voter ID laws don't rank very high at all on my list of priorities for govt action. That said, without requiring an ID the govt is basically taking you at your word that you are who you say you are when you show up and vote. There are very few other instanaces where the govt takes you word as proof of your identity. Like you mentioned, enrolling in programs and benefits that you are entitled to use often requires ID and paperwork that can act as an obstacle for the very people who are supposed to sign up and benefit from those programs and entitlements. I don't think there's a strong agument to make that requiring voter ID is a matter of urgency or need but I also don't think you can make a strong argument that voting should be allowed a lower threshold of identification than a whole host of other govt interactions both minor and major. If the people of a state want their legislature to pass voter ID laws I'm ok with it but don't think it should be a high priority for any legislature either.
Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur
2016/04/14 19:46:14
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Why do you persist in your pretence that voter ID has anything to do with preventing voter fraud, and that any problems to do with it are merely minor bureaucratic niggles?
You personally did not invent the idea. You don't have to support it. Are you really so mind-controlled that you will support anything a Republican administration puts forward?
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