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Easy E wrote: I will not be surprised by a Le Pen win.
Impossible, she cannot win ths time, but in 5 years with marion, it will be another story, next president will be Macarony, no surprise, french like money they will be serve.............Poor country, so sad. So many people choosed him because he is young or handsome...........Crying!!!
I remember the same being said of Trump with only a couple weeks to go before the election. Don't underestimate the power of the dynamics behind Brexit, Trump, LePen, etc. Now that she has shed the party label, I'd take odds that she does win.
Dude, read the post you are posting in, and respond accordingly. It seems we are truly in a world where only our own opinion matters, damn the facts.
What the feth are you talking about? I commented on the probability, or not, of a LePen win. Did I misread "Impossible, she cannot win this time..."? Seemed pretty clean cut or are you just in the mood to troll? Also, your comment that "It seems we are truly in a world where only our own opinion matters, damn the facts." is a bit premature as the only fact that will matter hasn't manifested yet and will only do so when we see who wins the election in a couple weeks. So until then, opinions are what we've got.
Yup, and as was pointed out above, we should probably avoid the punditry, as it leads to false predictions. No need to swear or get upset about it. Just respond to the discussion. Want to bet on red 5 all in, fair enough, just make clear that you realize that is an outside bet.
No need for your condescension either, or did I miss your appointment as omniscient arbiter of what is acceptable as a post?
Easy E wrote: I will not be surprised by a Le Pen win.
Impossible, she cannot win ths time, but in 5 years with marion, it will be another story, next president will be Macarony, no surprise, french like money they will be serve.............Poor country, so sad. So many people choosed him because he is young or handsome...........Crying!!!
I remember the same being said of Trump with only a couple weeks to go before the election. Don't underestimate the power of the dynamics behind Brexit, Trump, LePen, etc. Now that she has shed the party label, I'd take odds that she does win.
Dude, read the post you are posting in, and respond accordingly. It seems we are truly in a world where only our own opinion matters, damn the facts.
What the feth are you talking about? I commented on the probability, or not, of a LePen win. Did I misread "Impossible, she cannot win this time..."? Seemed pretty clean cut or are you just in the mood to troll? Also, your comment that "It seems we are truly in a world where only our own opinion matters, damn the facts." is a bit premature as the only fact that will matter hasn't manifested yet and will only do so when we see who wins the election in a couple weeks. So until then, opinions are what we've got.
It for say, it's not like with trump here, it's not 51% vs 49% we speaking about more than 10%, and all tvs, show etc..Speak about her like devil, so here in france the majority and a big majority don't like her, if she will a good president? Nobody know she will never do, in town where they are "major" they make good things but tvs say bad etc......Since many years lepen is like hitler etc......True sure not but people thing it's true. And french people don't thing, the evidence is Macron is holland number 2, all people wanted hollande out and they choose the same.
Just because he is young and cool...............Asked to french to be intelligent..........Forget.........So Macron will win with a minimum of 60%. I choose melanchon this year because he could beat macron, but lepen cannot.
Don't be complacent with your thinking that this is simply a percentage gap analysis matter. The point I'm making is that there is a bigger, global macro-trend in play and it's proven polls horribly wrong repeatedly so far and this election has the potential to be no different. I was calling for our current Liar-in-Chief to win weeks before the US election and getting called out for it on the...RIP...US Politics thread. This is one of those moments in history where the apple cart has been turned over and the aftermath is proving, as it will in such circumstances, to be predictably unpredictable.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2017/04/25 00:04:08
Nio matter how it is spun France is angry because of recent attacks, and only FN has been seen to actually do more than paste over the problems.
Now their cure is likely worse than the plague, but people are angry and people are desperate.
If you were to ask me two years ago who would be the most likely to win a presidential election, Marine Le Pen or Donald Trump, I would never have said Trump, everyone ought to know he is an unelectable moron.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
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Orlanth wrote: While Le Pen would be a disaster on so many levels, it could help get the UK off the Brexit hook enormously. France doesn't want to leave, and it is genuinely not in French interests as France was always at the core of the EU, something the UK never was and never could be.
Her election might be the wake up call they need. The EU needs reform if it going to survive. Thr fact she is second round should be noted and taken seriously. There's a big problem and its bot going away.
Seems they missed it with Brexit.
Why? If she gets elected and that's a gigantic if her policies are going to drive France of a cliff financially speaking. Her policies are going to drag down the EU whether France leaves or stays in. Reform won't do anything to avoid disaster if she's in.
On the second round thing. Her father also managed to do it in 2002. Lets not pretend its somehow a big problem now while its just an attempt at getting some extra votes and mainly just focused on the internal economy. EU bashing is just a good way to get those kinds of voters on board. Whats Le Pen going to do, pay all those French farmers herself?
That was my thoughts, too. It's EU funding that supports the Common Agricultural Policy that helps French small farmers, and its EU enterprise and development funds that help to rejuvenate the kind of post-industrial cities and the small towns. These places are much of the core support of Le Pen. It's cutting off their nose to spite their face to get out of the EU.
Orlanth wrote: While Le Pen would be a disaster on so many levels, it could help get the UK off the Brexit hook enormously. France doesn't want to leave, and it is genuinely not in French interests as France was always at the core of the EU, something the UK never was and never could be.
Her election might be the wake up call they need. The EU needs reform if it going to survive. Thr fact she is second round should be noted and taken seriously. There's a big problem and its bot going away.
Seems they missed it with Brexit.
Why? If she gets elected and that's a gigantic if her policies are going to drive France of a cliff financially speaking. Her policies are going to drag down the EU whether France leaves or stays in. Reform won't do anything to avoid disaster if she's in.
On the second round thing. Her father also managed to do it in 2002. Lets not pretend its somehow a big problem now while its just an attempt at getting some extra votes and mainly just focused on the internal economy. EU bashing is just a good way to get those kinds of voters on board. Whats Le Pen going to do, pay all those French farmers herself?
That was my thoughts, too. It's EU funding that supports the Common Agricultural Policy that helps French small farmers, and its EU enterprise and development funds that help to rejuvenate the kind of post-industrial cities and the small towns. These places are much of the core support of Le Pen. It's cutting off their nose to spite their face to get out of the EU.
The idea that the EU is such a massive drain on France is absolutely ridiculous. Net contributions to the EU in 2013 were 9 billion Euros. That is on a government budget of 1383.9 billion Euros in 2013. So the crippling and backbreaking EU contribution is a total of .6% of total expenditure. Here I pause for dramatic and emotional outrage...
In the end France only pays in a fraction to the EU, but in exchange it gets acces to the largest market in the world that negotiates trade deals on their behalf and everything. .6% is a tiny investment for all the economic benefits membership brings.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/25 12:42:04
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
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France cant leave the EU, it would destroy the EU in doing so. Le Pen could then force concessions, France is already a major beneficiary, things would just get more lobsided.
However the main break is not so much her EU policy but the two ballot system. Its a good firebreak against extremist politicians. Any complacency after the first ballot is scared right out of the electorate in the second.
Had some of the more controversial electoral and referendum results been held on a twin ballot, they simply would not have turned out as they have.
Le Pen is too scary to win, electoral turnout will be massive. I am not however saying she can't win, the fact that she has got this far means she is no longer a fringe politician, the actual main reason fringe parties remain on the fringe is because voting for them is often seen as just a wasted vote. Le Pen has a genuine shot at power, and enough people might give that to her.
Orlanth wrote: While Le Pen would be a disaster on so many levels, it could help get the UK off the Brexit hook enormously. France doesn't want to leave, and it is genuinely not in French interests as France was always at the core of the EU, something the UK never was and never could be.
Her election might be the wake up call they need. The EU needs reform if it going to survive. Thr fact she is second round should be noted and taken seriously. There's a big problem and its bot going away.
Seems they missed it with Brexit.
Why? If she gets elected and that's a gigantic if her policies are going to drive France of a cliff financially speaking. Her policies are going to drag down the EU whether France leaves or stays in. Reform won't do anything to avoid disaster if she's in.
On the second round thing. Her father also managed to do it in 2002. Lets not pretend its somehow a big problem now while its just an attempt at getting some extra votes and mainly just focused on the internal economy. EU bashing is just a good way to get those kinds of voters on board. Whats Le Pen going to do, pay all those French farmers herself?
That was my thoughts, too. It's EU funding that supports the Common Agricultural Policy that helps French small farmers, and its EU enterprise and development funds that help to rejuvenate the kind of post-industrial cities and the small towns. These places are much of the core support of Le Pen. It's cutting off their nose to spite their face to get out of the EU.
The idea that the EU is such a massive drain on France is absolutely ridiculous. Net contributions to the EU in 2013 were 9 billion Euros. That is on a government budget of 1383.9 billion Euros in 2013. So the crippling and backbreaking EU contribution is a total of .6% of total expenditure. Here I pause for dramatic and emotional outrage...
In the end France only pays in a fraction to the EU, but in exchange it gets acces to the largest market in the world that negotiates trade deals on their behalf and everything. .6% is a tiny investment for all the economic benefits membership brings.
The EU is not a burden to France, France and Germany are in the inner circle. Their main advantage is that they never have to lobby for what they want, if they don't want something it is never even tabled to begin with. The entire EU agricultural policy is built to match to the agricultural methodology of the French, overmanned and heavily dependent on subsidy. The EU would have been better off asking European farmers to use the far more efficient British or German model, but that just wasn't going to happen.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/25 12:49:37
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
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Orlanth wrote: France cant leave the EU, it would destroy the EU in doing so. Le Pen could then force concessions, France is already a major beneficiary, things would just get more lobsided.
However the main break is not so much her EU policy but the two ballot system. Its a good firebreak against extremist politicians. Any complacency after the first ballot is scared right out of the electorate in the second.
Had some of the more controversial electoral and referendum results been held on a twin ballot, they simply would not have turned out as they have.
Le Pen is too scary to win, electoral turnout will be massive. I am not however saying she can't win, the fact that she has got this far means she is no longer a fringe politician, the actual main reason fringe parties remain on the fringe is because voting for them is often seen as just a wasted vote. Le Pen has a genuine shot at power, and enough people might give that to her.
It doesn't matter if France leaves or stays in though. The promises she has made in her campaign can't possibly be fulfilled even if France stays in the EU. She's simply asking for too much just to keep the French economy running at its current level, which will be unsustainable.
Her dad hit the same snag in 2002 and it shows that the system works. She might stil win but the chances for that are astronomical, the start would need to align and double rainbows would need to grace the sky to get a voter coalition together to get her over 50%. But the FN has been big since 2002, there is no reason to assume its going to be bigger than it is now after she loses. People always forget her father ran in the elections and made it to round 2.
Orlanth wrote: While Le Pen would be a disaster on so many levels, it could help get the UK off the Brexit hook enormously. France doesn't want to leave, and it is genuinely not in French interests as France was always at the core of the EU, something the UK never was and never could be.
Her election might be the wake up call they need. The EU needs reform if it going to survive. Thr fact she is second round should be noted and taken seriously. There's a big problem and its bot going away.
Seems they missed it with Brexit.
Why? If she gets elected and that's a gigantic if her policies are going to drive France of a cliff financially speaking. Her policies are going to drag down the EU whether France leaves or stays in. Reform won't do anything to avoid disaster if she's in.
On the second round thing. Her father also managed to do it in 2002. Lets not pretend its somehow a big problem now while its just an attempt at getting some extra votes and mainly just focused on the internal economy. EU bashing is just a good way to get those kinds of voters on board. Whats Le Pen going to do, pay all those French farmers herself?
That was my thoughts, too. It's EU funding that supports the Common Agricultural Policy that helps French small farmers, and its EU enterprise and development funds that help to rejuvenate the kind of post-industrial cities and the small towns. These places are much of the core support of Le Pen. It's cutting off their nose to spite their face to get out of the EU.
The idea that the EU is such a massive drain on France is absolutely ridiculous. Net contributions to the EU in 2013 were 9 billion Euros. That is on a government budget of 1383.9 billion Euros in 2013. So the crippling and backbreaking EU contribution is a total of .6% of total expenditure. Here I pause for dramatic and emotional outrage...
In the end France only pays in a fraction to the EU, but in exchange it gets acces to the largest market in the world that negotiates trade deals on their behalf and everything. .6% is a tiny investment for all the economic benefits membership brings.
The EU is not a burden to France, France and Germany are in the inner circle. Their main advantage is that they never have to lobby for what they want, if they don't want something it is never even tabled to begin with. The entire EU agricultural policy is built to match to the agricultural methodology of the French, overmanned and heavily dependent on subsidy. The EU would have been better off asking European farmers to use the far more efficient British or German model, but that just wasn't going to happen.
That's exactly my point. Le Pen tries to pretend the EU is some sort of horrible constricting nightmare for France while France has probably been the single largest beneficiary of its existence! The whole CAP basically exists because of France and costs a ton of budget. Its ridiculous how were subsidizing a failing industry to such an extent and almost everyone but France hates it.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/25 13:35:28
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
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Orlanth wrote: Nio matter how it is spun France is angry because of recent attacks, and only FN has been seen to actually do more than paste over the problems.
Now their cure is likely worse than the plague, but people are angry and people are desperate.
If you were to ask me two years ago who would be the most likely to win a presidential election, Marine Le Pen or Donald Trump, I would never have said Trump, everyone ought to know he is an unelectable moron.
That's thr problem. If they keep ignoring thr problems.
They seem to be offering more than a soundbite. (as in perception)
Now for some that seems worth the risk. Main party did not stop thr attacks. And people don,t wanna live under terror threat with constant military patrols.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/25 13:54:29
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In these 1-on-1 contests, the motivation ofthe base is all important. Le Pen has proven that her base is highly motivated. Macron's has not proven it over multiple elections.
Will the people who voted a 3rd party previously fall in line with Macron or Le Pen? I do not know, but if the Conservatives who have no other candidate fall in line and 3rd party voters do not fall in line for Macron then the gap in the initial election does not matter much.
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New wave of election tampering incoming. Let's see, Trump took loans from Russian banks...LePen took loans from Russian banks. Trump praised Putin...LePen praised Putin. Russia was actively involved in U.S. election manipulation...Russia is actively involved in French election manipulation. Yet, some think there's no reason to be alarmed. Yeah, ok.
Easy E wrote: In these 1-on-1 contests, the motivation ofthe base is all important. Le Pen has proven that her base is highly motivated. Macron's has not proven it over multiple elections.
Will the people who voted a 3rd party previously fall in line with Macron or Le Pen? I do not know, but if the Conservatives who have no other candidate fall in line and 3rd party voters do not fall in line for Macron then the gap in the initial election does not matter much.
If you mean that Le Pen's 20% voter share is motivated then sure, but Macron already beat that by several percent in just the first round. Also previous election against the FN have shown that people easily cross party lines at what is still seen as a semi-fascist party.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/25 14:09:56
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
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Easy E wrote: In these 1-on-1 contests, the motivation ofthe base is all important. Le Pen has proven that her base is highly motivated. Macron's has not proven it over multiple elections.
Will the people who voted a 3rd party previously fall in line with Macron or Le Pen? I do not know, but if the Conservatives who have no other candidate fall in line and 3rd party voters do not fall in line for Macron then the gap in the initial election does not matter much.
If you mean that Le Pen's 20% voter share is motivated then sure, but Macron already beat that by several percent in just the first round. Also previous election against the FN have shown that people easily cross party lines at what is still seen as a semi-fascist party.
I hope you are correct.
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Easy E wrote: In these 1-on-1 contests, the motivation ofthe base is all important. Le Pen has proven that her base is highly motivated. Macron's has not proven it over multiple elections.
Will the people who voted a 3rd party previously fall in line with Macron or Le Pen? I do not know, but if the Conservatives who have no other candidate fall in line and 3rd party voters do not fall in line for Macron then the gap in the initial election does not matter much.
If you mean that Le Pen's 20% voter share is motivated then sure, but Macron already beat that by several percent in just the first round. Also previous election against the FN have shown that people easily cross party lines at what is still seen as a semi-fascist party.
I hope you are correct.
In both the 2002 presidential election in which father Le Pen ran as well as in the more recent regional elections, both right and left wing have united to keep the FN out of power. No reason to assume they won't do so again. Anyone who really wanted Le Pen would have already voted for her in round 1. As she didn't beat Macron its hard to see her attract the more moderate electorate to her instead of Macron, not to mention the revulsion the average far left Melenchon voter will have for her.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/25 14:26:54
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
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Yes, but do the far left voters care enough to go out and vote for Macron? That is basically what happened in the US. The left didn't really turn out for Clinton (as many preferred Sanders), but the right base did. Therefore Trump Presidency.
Not saying tht is what will happen in France as I am not that close to it. However, it does highlight my point that this election will be decided by the base of each political wing.
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The left turned out for Clinton by 3 million votes more than the right for Trump.
The election fell to Trump because of the built-in bias towards conservatism of the construction of the EC, and a very small number of votes in a couple of important swing states.
According to the BBC analysis, if about 100,000 people in Pennsylvania and Florida had voted Clinton rather than Trump, instead of a marginal Trump victory, we would have been looking at a major Clinton landslide.
Easy E wrote:Yes, but do the far left voters care enough to go out and vote for Macron? That is basically what happened in the US. The left didn't really turn out for Clinton (as many preferred Sanders), but the right base did. Therefore Trump Presidency.
Not saying tht is what will happen in France as I am not that close to it. However, it does highlight my point that this election will be decided by the base of each political wing.
Kilkrazy wrote:The left turned out for Clinton by 3 million votes more than the right for Trump.
The election fell to Trump because of the built-in bias towards conservatism of the construction of the EC, and a very small number of votes in a couple of important swing states.
According to the BBC analysis, if about 100,000 people in Pennsylvania and Florida had voted Clinton rather than Trump, instead of a marginal Trump victory, we would have been looking at a major Clinton landslide.
KK is correct, however, the subject is verboten currently.
Here's hoping all conventional analysis is correct and Le Pen is kept out of power.
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Easy E wrote: Yes, but do the far left voters care enough to go out and vote for Macron? That is basically what happened in the US. The left didn't really turn out for Clinton (as many preferred Sanders), but the right base did. Therefore Trump Presidency.
Not saying tht is what will happen in France as I am not that close to it. However, it does highlight my point that this election will be decided by the base of each political wing.
Don't worry too much, if Macron picks up the moderate Hamon and Fillon voters, who have already pledged their support to him he will have at least 49% (24 of himself, 6 from Hamon and 19 of Fillon) of the votes cast in round one and easily double that of Le Pen. While the 20% far left vote is a significant chunk them staying home might not be as much of a problem, as it would be doubtful they would actually vote for any candidate that is not far left and they certainly won't go for far right Le Pen. So between the 5 more major candidates that is already over 85% of the vote accounted for. Even if Le Pen manages to scrounge the few percent of the smaller candidates which in some cases is equally impossible she would still not come close to Macron, its why the polls give him a comfortable 20% lead. Waaaaay more than Clinton had before the election and really far away from the margin of error becoming a problem.
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
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Easy E wrote: Yes, but do the far left voters care enough to go out and vote for Macron? That is basically what happened in the US. The left didn't really turn out for Clinton (as many preferred Sanders), but the right base did. Therefore Trump Presidency.
Not saying tht is what will happen in France as I am not that close to it. However, it does highlight my point that this election will be decided by the base of each political wing.
Don't worry too much, if Macron picks up the moderate Hamon and Fillon voters, who have already pledged their support to him he will have at least 49% (24 of himself, 6 from Hamon and 19 of Fillon) of the votes cast in round one and easily double that of Le Pen. While the 20% far left vote is a significant chunk them staying home might not be as much of a problem, as it would be doubtful they would actually vote for any candidate that is not far left and they certainly won't go for far right Le Pen. So between the 5 more major candidates that is already over 85% of the vote accounted for. Even if Le Pen manages to scrounge the few percent of the smaller candidates which in some cases is equally impossible she would still not come close to Macron, its why the polls give him a comfortable 20% lead. Waaaaay more than Clinton had before the election and really far away from the margin of error becoming a problem.
This is welcome news. Thanks for sharing.
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Fillion votes won't necessarily go to Macron though. He was already relatively hardliner for the Les Républicains party (damn that name is so stupid I can't wait for the party to die/rename), and I am sure some of them will go to Le Pen. And Hamon was also pretty left-wing, so not all Hamon voters will vote for Macron either.
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Fillion votes won't necessarily go to Macron though. He was already relatively hardliner for the Les Républicains party (damn that name is so stupid I can't wait for the party to die/rename), and I am sure some of them will go to Le Pen. And Hamon was also pretty left-wing, so not all Hamon voters will vote for Macron either.
Sure Fillon was a hardliner, but I can't imagine a good chunk of his voter base is willing to go for Le Pen as they are relatively older and that generation tends to dislike Le Pen the most. The problem still is that Le Pen is too extreme even for their voters. A one to one transfer is not completely expected of course.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/25 20:49:18
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
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Kilkrazy wrote: The left turned out for Clinton by 3 million votes more than the right for Trump.
The election fell to Trump because of the built-in bias towards conservatism of the construction of the EC, and a very small number of votes in a couple of important swing states.
According to the BBC analysis, if about 100,000 people in Pennsylvania and Florida had voted Clinton rather than Trump, instead of a marginal Trump victory, we would have been looking at a major Clinton landslide.
Wasn't Pennsylvania one of those states Clinton didn't bother canvassing?
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
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Easy E wrote: Yes, but do the far left voters care enough to go out and vote for Macron? That is basically what happened in the US. The left didn't really turn out for Clinton (as many preferred Sanders), but the right base did. Therefore Trump Presidency.
Not saying tht is what will happen in France as I am not that close to it. However, it does highlight my point that this election will be decided by the base of each political wing.
Don't worry too much, if Macron picks up the moderate Hamon and Fillon voters, who have already pledged their support to him he will have at least 49% (24 of himself, 6 from Hamon and 19 of Fillon) of the votes cast in round one and easily double that of Le Pen. While the 20% far left vote is a significant chunk them staying home might not be as much of a problem, as it would be doubtful they would actually vote for any candidate that is not far left and they certainly won't go for far right Le Pen. So between the 5 more major candidates that is already over 85% of the vote accounted for. Even if Le Pen manages to scrounge the few percent of the smaller candidates which in some cases is equally impossible she would still not come close to Macron, its why the polls give him a comfortable 20% lead. Waaaaay more than Clinton had before the election and really far away from the margin of error becoming a problem.
This is welcome news. Thanks for sharing.
Even if that does happen and say Le Pen polls 20-30%
Now anything from one third max to a 5th of France has a issue. Its a big issue and unless the other guy Is a fool. He will see that is somthibf to consider tackling why that is.
Example. If Terror attacks keep happening. And they do nothing different . People will want answers, to feel safe from terror in there own county and anyone with a brain will see if mainstream not interested. Le Pen and others outside the main parties will still find strong support.
Like wise would be the UK cannot just ignore the SNP and the remainers.
Yes you may disagree but tgefe toolarge vpter blocks to ignore at this point.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/04/25 22:26:09
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
Kilkrazy wrote: The left turned out for Clinton by 3 million votes more than the right for Trump.
The election fell to Trump because of the built-in bias towards conservatism of the construction of the EC, and a very small number of votes in a couple of important swing states.
According to the BBC analysis, if about 100,000 people in Pennsylvania and Florida had voted Clinton rather than Trump, instead of a marginal Trump victory, we would have been looking at a major Clinton landslide.
Wasn't Pennsylvania one of those states Clinton didn't bother canvassing?
You're thinking of Wisconsin... but, yeah they barely did that at Pennsylvania as well.
Le Pen must be in a strange state where she kind of wants a major terrorist attack in France to boost her numbers.
ugh, the life of a populist...
We were once so close to heaven, St. Peter came out and gave us medals; declaring us "The nicest of the damned".
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”
Easy E wrote: Yes, but do the far left voters care enough to go out and vote for Macron? That is basically what happened in the US. The left didn't really turn out for Clinton (as many preferred Sanders), but the right base did. Therefore Trump Presidency.
Not saying tht is what will happen in France as I am not that close to it. However, it does highlight my point that this election will be decided by the base of each political wing.
Don't worry too much, if Macron picks up the moderate Hamon and Fillon voters, who have already pledged their support to him he will have at least 49% (24 of himself, 6 from Hamon and 19 of Fillon) of the votes cast in round one and easily double that of Le Pen. While the 20% far left vote is a significant chunk them staying home might not be as much of a problem, as it would be doubtful they would actually vote for any candidate that is not far left and they certainly won't go for far right Le Pen. So between the 5 more major candidates that is already over 85% of the vote accounted for. Even if Le Pen manages to scrounge the few percent of the smaller candidates which in some cases is equally impossible she would still not come close to Macron, its why the polls give him a comfortable 20% lead. Waaaaay more than Clinton had before the election and really far away from the margin of error becoming a problem.
This is welcome news. Thanks for sharing.
Even if that does happen and say Le Pen polls 20-30%
Now anything from one third max to a 5th of France has a issue. Its a big issue and unless the other guy Is a fool. He will see that is somthibf to consider tackling why that is.
Example. If Terror attacks keep happening. And they do nothing different . People will want answers, to feel safe from terror in there own county and anyone with a brain will see if mainstream not interested. Le Pen and others outside the main parties will still find strong support.
Like wise would be the UK cannot just ignore the SNP and the remainers.
Yes you may disagree but tgefe toolarge vpter blocks to ignore at this point.
Sigh, Le Pen's dad got 20% of the vote in 2002, this is not in any way a new problem. This voting block is nothing new. Its hard to tackle the concerns of ultra nationalists because in the case of Le Pen those concerns are based on hardcore racism. Le Pen even used the analogy of migrants coming to France being the same as people breaking into your house and violating your wife and stealing your wallpaper! What are you going to tackle, people's irrational fear of brown people?
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
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2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
Le Pen must be in a strange state where she kind of wants a major terrorist attack in France to boost her numbers.
ugh, the life of a populist...
Actually, both would benefit. Macron would easily use that to look more "presidential". For now, the main danger is for him to look way too much assured of his victory.
Thing is, both of them barely got a fourth of the votes in the first round. And one of them will become Supreme Leader of France. There is anger in the streets. Macron isn't that attractive to the left, after all. And the right finds common grounds with both of them.
Easy E wrote: Yes, but do the far left voters care enough to go out and vote for Macron? That is basically what happened in the US. The left didn't really turn out for Clinton (as many preferred Sanders), but the right base did. Therefore Trump Presidency.
Not saying tht is what will happen in France as I am not that close to it. However, it does highlight my point that this election will be decided by the base of each political wing.
Don't worry too much, if Macron picks up the moderate Hamon and Fillon voters, who have already pledged their support to him he will have at least 49% (24 of himself, 6 from Hamon and 19 of Fillon) of the votes cast in round one and easily double that of Le Pen. While the 20% far left vote is a significant chunk them staying home might not be as much of a problem, as it would be doubtful they would actually vote for any candidate that is not far left and they certainly won't go for far right Le Pen. So between the 5 more major candidates that is already over 85% of the vote accounted for. Even if Le Pen manages to scrounge the few percent of the smaller candidates which in some cases is equally impossible she would still not come close to Macron, its why the polls give him a comfortable 20% lead. Waaaaay more than Clinton had before the election and really far away from the margin of error becoming a problem.
This is welcome news. Thanks for sharing.
Even if that does happen and say Le Pen polls 20-30%
Now anything from one third max to a 5th of France has a issue. Its a big issue and unless the other guy Is a fool. He will see that is somthibf to consider tackling why that is.
Example. If Terror attacks keep happening. And they do nothing different . People will want answers, to feel safe from terror in there own county and anyone with a brain will see if mainstream not interested. Le Pen and others outside the main parties will still find strong support.
Like wise would be the UK cannot just ignore the SNP and the remainers.
Yes you may disagree but tgefe toolarge vpter blocks to ignore at this point.
Sigh, Le Pen's dad got 20% of the vote in 2002, this is not in any way a new problem. This voting block is nothing new. Its hard to tackle the concerns of ultra nationalists because in the case of Le Pen those concerns are based on hardcore racism. Le Pen even used the analogy of migrants coming to France being the same as people breaking into your house and violating your wife and stealing your wallpaper! What are you going to tackle, people's irrational fear of brown people?
And however you think there has to ve somthibf underpinning the fear and the hate she plays off.
There's deeper reason than there just racist. That might by a symptom but the greater illness that causes it lies down below it.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
Easy E wrote: Yes, but do the far left voters care enough to go out and vote for Macron? That is basically what happened in the US. The left didn't really turn out for Clinton (as many preferred Sanders), but the right base did. Therefore Trump Presidency.
Not saying tht is what will happen in France as I am not that close to it. However, it does highlight my point that this election will be decided by the base of each political wing.
Don't worry too much, if Macron picks up the moderate Hamon and Fillon voters, who have already pledged their support to him he will have at least 49% (24 of himself, 6 from Hamon and 19 of Fillon) of the votes cast in round one and easily double that of Le Pen. While the 20% far left vote is a significant chunk them staying home might not be as much of a problem, as it would be doubtful they would actually vote for any candidate that is not far left and they certainly won't go for far right Le Pen. So between the 5 more major candidates that is already over 85% of the vote accounted for. Even if Le Pen manages to scrounge the few percent of the smaller candidates which in some cases is equally impossible she would still not come close to Macron, its why the polls give him a comfortable 20% lead. Waaaaay more than Clinton had before the election and really far away from the margin of error becoming a problem.
This is welcome news. Thanks for sharing.
Even if that does happen and say Le Pen polls 20-30% Now anything from one third max to a 5th of France has a issue. Its a big issue and unless the other guy Is a fool. He will see that is somthibf to consider tackling why that is.
Example. If Terror attacks keep happening. And they do nothing different . People will want answers, to feel safe from terror in there own county and anyone with a brain will see if mainstream not interested. Le Pen and others outside the main parties will still find strong support.
Like wise would be the UK cannot just ignore the SNP and the remainers. Yes you may disagree but tgefe toolarge vpter blocks to ignore at this point.
Sigh, Le Pen's dad got 20% of the vote in 2002, this is not in any way a new problem. This voting block is nothing new. Its hard to tackle the concerns of ultra nationalists because in the case of Le Pen those concerns are based on hardcore racism. Le Pen even used the analogy of migrants coming to France being the same as people breaking into your house and violating your wife and stealing your wallpaper! What are you going to tackle, people's irrational fear of brown people?
And however you think there has to ve somthibf underpinning the fear and the hate she plays off. There's deeper reason than there just racist. That might by a symptom but the greater illness that causes it lies down below it.
2002 was an entirely different time however, Europe did not suffer any large scale Islamic terror attacks like 9/11 in the US yet. France has always had political extremes very much present in society. Of course something underpins the fears and hate she plays of off, but that underpinning could be and usually is completely irrational. Furthermore she picked up some anti EU sentiment (while heavily mooching off the EU herself, spot the trend!) but a few others and I have already pointed out how ridiculous that criticism is when France has been the largest beneficiary of the existence of the EU in the first place. Of course she collects some of the protest and 'free money' vote. But real reform needs to happen regardless of these people being afraid of it and wanting to go back to the good old days. The good old days when you could just close yourself off in a single country just won't cut it anymore. Every country is now vulnerable to the fluctuations of the global market, and France has shown to be very unstable indeed and were it not for her size and importance in the EU, it would have also received the harsher treatment reserved for 'wayward' Southern European states. They can't keep running that kind of deficit anymore, Le Pen is going to scare away every investor and no one will want to loan France money anymore. Giving in to the underpinnings of Le Pen supporters isn't a helpful, its madness.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/04/25 23:35:32
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
Blackie wrote: Brexit isn't even started yet, no one can say if it will be bad or good for the UK or/and for the other countries. Trump is president since 2 months, le pen never governed. Putin and duterte don't belong to democracies. I'd wait the proper amount of time before judging.
You didn't read my post, and got yourself quite confused. I was explaining the forces behind that drove the votes in Brexit, Trump and Le Pen. Pointing out the effects of the final results aren't yet known is replying to a point that wasn't made.
If you don't get what I'm saying, consider this example;
Tom - I was rushed for time and only had $2 for lunch, so I bought sandwich at the petrol station.
Dave - You don't know if that sandwich will be nice or gross, as you haven't eaten it yet.
Do you understand now?
Obama was one of the worst american presidents, considering how his politics affected europe, africa and middle eastern countries. If he wasn't half black very few people would have praised him.http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/dec/4/obama-competing-with-jimmy-carter-for-worst-former/
Ok, and now what you've done is raise Obama pretty much out of the blue, make a hyperbolic claim about him, tinge that with racial weirdness, and then link to a newspaper owned by a cult. I predict your time on dakka will be long and full of many polite, nuanced debates.
jasper76 wrote: The talking heads seem convinced Le Pen is going to win, and use her election to either force significant change in France's relationship with the EU, or else Frexit. And if France Frexits, Italy may well be next in line, and then the house of cards may very well collapse.
Not sure how much of this is true or just hot air, but may you live in interesting times. It's kind of unsettling to see the EU experiment unraveling in such a short period of time, and I can't help but think this French election will have dramatic implications for the future of Europe at large.
It certainly seems to me that the EU is being put on notice that it must make major reforms or die. I wonder if the institution is even capable of change, or if there is too much inertia and the bureaucracy is too entrenched.
I very much doubt that.
Le Pen has been banging on that 'Frexit' drum for quite some time, and still can't seem to reach the 40% range in the polls.
I recently saw a poll (can't find it at the moment) quite some time ago that a large majority French, by and large, want to stay in the EU. I can't imagine those voters going with Le Pen...
Get used to saying President Macron. Another outsider... eh?
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jasper76 wrote: If the US election taught us anything, it's that polls cannot be trusted...not even a little bit. I'm not sure that the polling industry has proven that it has made sufficient adjustments to its techniques to be trusted.
First up, polls in different countries have different processes and different electorates with their own quirks. A lesson learned about US polling is not one that can be applied to another country.
Second up, you learned a completely wrong lesson from US polls. Polls told us Clinton was ahead by 2 to 3 points. She ended up winning the popular vote by 2 points. Trump won the election because the EC broke his way, but that was always possible when the popular vote was that close. Concluding that polls cannot be relied upon based on that is a very strange conclusion. The actual mistakes were made by some analysts, who wrongly thought Trump's odds of beating his polls in a 5 or 6 states were independent events, when actually they were closely correlated (if the WWC came out in large numbers, while black votes were depressed, then all those states would swing a few points in Trump's favour, which is what happened). And thing is, some analysts said this wasn't just possible, but reasonably likely. So the actual lesson is to trust analysts, such as 538, who apply such complexities to their models, and who talk in terms of real uncertainties in the election, and to not trust analysts with simplistic models and who speak in too much certainty in a close election.
This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2017/04/26 02:15:03
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
Frazzled wrote: You don't know who David Byrne is? Barbarian!
I don't know what the expression talking head means. And I also don't know who David Byrne is. But, you see, as you are American and I am French, I laugh at the very suggestion that you could be in any way more civilized or sophisticated than I am . See, you have this reputation for being uncouth and crude, while we…
David Byrne is the lead guitarist, principle songwriter and singer for the great American band "Talking Heads" which is a New Wave group from the mid 70's featuring anxious vocals, clean precise production, funk and minimalist inspired aesthetic (and later more afrobeat), arty
experimentation, nerdy awkwardness and intellectual lyrics. Talking head is another way of saying television pundit and/or a person who is empty and pretentious.
whembly wrote: Traditionally, they're much more solid than the one we see here in the states.
The French system isn't better. It's different. The French polling system uses controlled, consistent samples more than the US, which relies on cold calling. Because of that, and a whole bunch of other reasons, the French produce a lot of polls that are much more stable. Unlike the US where two polls announced on the same day may differ by 5 points, and then both pollsters may see their result move 5 points in their next poll, in France the polls will be 'herded', all producing much the same results over time, and between pollsters. This means individual pollsters in France tend to be more accurate, but when you look at overall combined poll averages the US and France tend to be pretty similar. However, in France because the polls are so tightly herded, you get very little indication of uncertainty - in the US an uncertain race or boilover will suggest itself with big polling swings and variations between agencies, in France that kind of result will blindside you.
True... but, the beauty to the French's 'Two Rounds' for their election can mitigate the populist rise we've been seeing elsewhere... in that, the losing coalitions can band together and play the 'not votes' in the 2nd round. That's actually what typically happens there...
Probably the biggest thing hurting Le Pen is the response of the French right. They have all moved to support Macron as they acknowledge how terrible le Pen is. This is the same about a decade ago, when the left moved in behind Chirac to ensure Le Pen was defeated then as well. This is in contrast to the US right wing, which despite a lot of sound and fury all pretty consistently got behind Trump and got their votes out for him on election day, and got him over the line.
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Gordon Shumway wrote: I agree, and while I do think people like Silver do great work, he does sort of dip his toe into punditry too, often much to his ridicule. It does what he does no service or help to what he really does and just feeds the "MSM are just stooges to the powers that be" narrative that is way too appealing to online feed groups. Just look at the numbers, read the numbers and explain the numbers. No need for the commentary, thank you very much.
Yeah, Silver did focus more on political norms, and not polls during the primary, such as speculating about a Trump 'ceiling' to his vote, that would cost him states once the field reduced to a couple of viable candidates. This speculation is understandable to an extent, because polls really are quite wild in the primaries and you can't just follow the polls by themselves. However, it is also not what Silver is good at. Arguably its not what anyone is good at, punditry is pretty useless and inaccurate across the board.
Silver took his lesson, and come the general he was very consistent in just following the model and nothing else. Silver's final prediction was that Trump had about a 30% chance because it was possible that if the WWC came out in decent numbers while other minorities were down on 2012, then he was a real chance of taking enough of the swing states. That final analysis was bang on.
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flamingkillamajig wrote: Back on topic i think Sebster hit the nail on the head. When things don't work people want change. Would you believe Obama's campaign promise and slogan was for 'Change'? I guess that's a bigger indicator of who wins now. Maybe things just suck so bad in the usa politically that any political change would be accepted. I honestly things you guys would've had a good shot if Bernie Sanders was one of the 2 main candidates but you went with Hillary instead. Big mistake. Course these days it's usually 2 term democrat and 2 term republican for usa so i dunno.
I would like to clarify - I don't think things are actually broken. There is lingering frustration that the recovery from the Great Recession has been so anemic, particularly in much of Europe, and of course income equality is a major issue, but this is a long way from things being utterly terrible and demanding we tear down society and start all over again. But there is a powerful narrative in the community that our problems really are absolutely horrible, that things can't get worse. That's where I think this drive for reform from outsiders is coming from.
As to why people believe this... I dunno. Maybe because its been a long time since things were actually really gak. There's not many people alive today who lived through the last time global war tore first world countries to pieces, so maybe people have somewhat forgotten how bad that sucks. Similarly the prosperity of the first world has lessened the impact of recession - people lost homes and jobs and that really sucked, but we haven't seen abject poverty like people dying of malnutrition, or tent compounds housing hundreds of thousands. They've lost a bit of context, maybe?
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BigWaaagh wrote: I may not have Hybrid's insight, but it seems like a brilliant tactic to me. Her faithful will follow her regardless of party affiliation and over the next two weeks, she can put some symbolic distance between herself and FN, which is obviously a possible stumbling block for some people to come over and vote for her.
It maybe suggests something of a hail mary tactic? When you're losing, you might as will do something to shake up the race. Playing it might be the approach you lose by 20, but that's still losing. Do something wild and most likely it will backfire or cost you, but if there's maybe a 10% chance it will work and drag you back in to the race.
I think what this shows us is that while a lot of dakka doesn't want to believe the polls between Le Pen and Macron, they are probably guiding Le Pen's strategy.
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Kilkrazy wrote: That was my thoughts, too. It's EU funding that supports the Common Agricultural Policy that helps French small farmers, and its EU enterprise and development funds that help to rejuvenate the kind of post-industrial cities and the small towns. These places are much of the core support of Le Pen. It's cutting off their nose to spite their face to get out of the EU.
I read recently about a small town in Maine that had received a large influx of Somalian refugees. It rejuvenated the economy, and reversed the slide afflicting many similar small towns. The locals still resent the Somalis. The economy matters, but resentment of change can be powerful enough to overcome that, especially if people manage to remain ignorant of the economic benefits.
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whembly wrote: You're thinking of Wisconsin... but, yeah they barely did that at Pennsylvania as well.
Clinton campaigned extensively in Pennsylvania. If it wasn't her most visited state, then it was at least top 3. There's a right wing perception that she didn't campaign in the state, because Clinton stuck to the Democratic strongholds in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. This is the standard Democratic strategy, and how they win the state - run up huge numbers in Pittsburgh and Philly to overwhelm the votes from the rural areas. And Clinton basically matched Obama's results in those two cities. The problem was that rural voters turned out in massive numbers for Trump, and swamped the lead built up in the cities.
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jhe90 wrote: And however you think there has to ve somthibf underpinning the fear and the hate she plays off.
There's deeper reason than there just racist. That might by a symptom but the greater illness that causes it lies down below it.
This sounds a lot like those arguments that end with people wondering if only the Jews had done more to assimilate.
This message was edited 6 times. Last update was at 2017/04/26 05:28:04
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
1750 pts Blood Specters
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
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Another outsider... eh?
. See, you have this reputation for being uncouth and crude, while we…