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I concur with ScarletRose, anything coming from Sqorgar needs to be taken with a mountain of salt. He's convinced that the Coronavirus is being wildly over-reported because the test has a 50% false positive according to one study, and that almost everyone dying is dying from the real killer- high blood pressure, which can be treated faster than we can develop a vaccine.

It's fascinating reading, and I highly recommend going back through the thread,but I would seriously question any information originating from this poster.

The ‘it’s been around a little longer than we think’ might not be entirely without merit... the USA did have a particularly bad ‘flu’ season... perhaps some of those deaths weren’t flu but corona?

I also know of a relatively young dentist locally that had a cough then pneumonia at the start of the year ... sounds suspiciously like c19 too...

Either way, I’ll remain indoors and keep working on hobby backlog, home schooling and free online courses.

 Gitzbitah wrote:
I concur with ScarletRose, anything coming from Sqorgar needs to be taken with a mountain of salt. He's convinced that the Coronavirus is being wildly over-reported because the test has a 50% false positive according to one study, and that almost everyone dying is dying from the real killer- high blood pressure, which can be treated faster than we can develop a vaccine.

It's fascinating reading, and I highly recommend going back through the thread,but I would seriously question any information originating from this poster.

I don't see him as any less credible than anybody else here.

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:

Maybe they were and we just didn't know? I mean, how many people die in hospital daily, due to those underlying medical conditions or complications due to them? Has there been any comparisons done to investigate the statistics?

Yes, they do, this is why they can identify abnormally high mortality rates in new births or those recovering after heart operations. They are always monitoring statistics because they are the first sign something is going wrong (or right) even though for the individual cases you can't specify.

Yes deaths do occur in hospitals but statistically these rise and wane over a year at a reasonably predictable level and the trends are predictable as well. It simply wouldn't be able to hide anomalous deaths in the stats. To explain an early mass infection you'd have to explain why the early population didn't show the same deaths rates we are now seeing (which would have stood out like a sore thumb against the data if it had happened earlier from the forecasted rates). The increase in infections, the increase in death rates all show the same profile across the globe - hence rather than just the uk having an early wave of non lethal infections globally this must also have happened. Now you have to argue that no one in the world identified it. So you are still back to the fundamental issue of why the sudden increase in deaths are occurring now and not in the initial wave.

We also know where the first cases and have mapped to a single live meat market where it started, we know this. The first reports of a new virus appeared in late November (immediately shut down by the Chinese government) and it became obvious and undeniable in late December.

As for being less lethal than the seasonal flu this is nonsense, though you can point to specific strains that have been (e.g. The 1918 pandemic). One factor is that we have no immunity yet - our bodies have never come across it before, this is unlike flu where some humans systems will recognise a variation of one it has met before and kill it before it becomes established.

 Gitzbitah wrote:
I concur with ScarletRose, anything coming from Sqorgar needs to be taken with a mountain of salt. He's convinced that the Coronavirus is being wildly over-reported because the test has a 50% false positive according to one study, and that almost everyone dying is dying from the real killer- high blood pressure, which can be treated faster than we can develop a vaccine.

It's fascinating reading, and I highly recommend going back through the thread,but I would seriously question any information originating from this poster.

He provided a link go read it, then engage your thinking cap instead of shooting down out of hand because of who the link was from. This isnt 40k guys but for some reason people seem to think "An open mind is like a fortress with its gates unbarred and unguarded", I much prefer Aristotle "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it"

So think about the following timeline as a possibility.

November 17 first attributed death in Wuhan (Were there others cases before that either unattributed or dint result in death ?
Over the next month and a half infection starts trickling out, initial cases outside China are just recorded as flu or preexisting condition that alot of deaths seem to be influenced by.
Chinese New Year Hits Chinese go on vacations, non Chines go home to visit family since the countries shut down and shortly thereafter Boom spread accelerates.

I guarantee one thing, there's a large amount that we think we know right now that is just plain wrong, not because people are stupid or malicious but just because models are being based on limited sets of inaccurate data. Its little different than what we call fog of war in the military.

nareik wrote:
The ‘it’s been around a little longer than we think’ might not be entirely without merit... the USA did have a particularly bad ‘flu’ season... perhaps some of those deaths weren’t flu but corona

You can get pneumonia fron a number of causes both viral and bacterial. Pneumonia is more of a condition than the actual disease, in the same ways that AIDS is a condition but HIV is the actual virus. A cough is also common with pneumonia because it is your bodies way of trying to clear its airways.

I also know someone that had pneumonia in September and thinks it might have been corona which literally would have made him patient zero in the uk which he then somehow spread to China (without going there). Literally this thinking I'd utter male cow faeces. It is also extremely dangerous because it makes people complacent into thinking they already have had it.

 Whirlwind wrote:

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:

Maybe they were and we just didn't know? I mean, how many people die in hospital daily, due to those underlying medical conditions or complications due to them? Has there been any comparisons done to investigate the statistics?

Yes, they do, this is why they can identify abnormally high mortality rates in new births or those recovering after heart operations. They are always monitoring statistics because they are the first sign something is going wrong (or right) even though for the individual cases you can't specify.

Yes deaths do occur in hospitals but statistically these rise and wane over a year at a reasonably predictable level and the trends are predictable as well. It simply wouldn't be able to hide anomalous deaths in the stats. To explain an early mass infection you'd have to explain why the early population didn't show the same deaths rates we are now seeing (which would have stood out like a sore thumb against the data if it had happened earlier from the forecasted rates). The increase in infections, the increase in death rates all show the same profile across the globe - hence rather than just the uk having an early wave of non lethal infections globally this must also have happened. Now you have to argue that no one in the world identified it. So you are still back to the fundamental issue of why the sudden increase in deaths are occurring now and not in the initial wave.

We also know where the first cases and have mapped to a single live meat market where it started, we know this. The first reports of a new virus appeared in late November (immediately shut down by the Chinese government) and it became obvious and undeniable in late December.

As for being less lethal than the seasonal flu this is nonsense, though you can point to specific strains that have been (e.g. The 1918 pandemic). One factor is that we have no immunity yet - our bodies have never come across it before, this is unlike flu where some humans systems will recognise a variation of one it has met before and kill it before it becomes established.

Yeah but pneumonia kills 30k pa aparantly.. So maybe some of those could have been caused by early cv but not recognised, and possibly been put down to flu or something else? I don't know how deep they go into finding the underlying cause?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

nareik wrote:
The ‘it’s been around a little longer than we think’ might not be entirely without merit... the USA did have a particularly bad ‘flu’ season... perhaps some of those deaths weren’t flu but corona?

I also know of a relatively young dentist locally that had a cough then pneumonia at the start of the year ... sounds suspiciously like c19 too...

Either way, I’ll remain indoors and keep working on hobby backlog, home schooling and free online courses.

Any decent courses recommended?

 Gitzbitah wrote:
I concur with ScarletRose, anything coming from Sqorgar needs to be taken with a mountain of salt. He's convinced that the Coronavirus is being wildly over-reported because the test has a 50% false positive according to one study, and that almost everyone dying is dying from the real killer- high blood pressure, which can be treated faster than we can develop a vaccine.

A) Feel free to question anything I say. You should. But I'm not saying this. It's Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford theoretical epidemiologist, as reported by Yahoo News, quoting Financial Times.

2) The test doesn't have a 50% false positive rate. I've already explained the false positive paradox. The test has an 80% false positive rate of positive results, and a 50% chance that any positive result is a false positive. False positive rate, false positive rate of positive results, and chance a positive result is a false positive are three different numbers. Think of it like to hit, to wound, and a save roll. Similar, but different.

iii) I never said people were dying from high blood pressure. In 75% of the deaths in Italy, high blood pressure was present. If it is a contributing factor in the lethality of this disease, it would be well worth the effort to correct. Diabetes and heart disease too. Even if the coronavirus outbreak passes, having these conditions will shorten your lifespan and make you more susceptible to other diseases like pneumonia and the flu.

4.2.1) A vaccine which has gone through an adequate number of safety trials and human testing would take years. And that's if they had a working vaccine right now, which they don't. True, vaccines are classified differently than typical drugs and have fewer safety requirements and testing, but even if they skipped right over the testing (which would be a catastrophic mistake), it would take months to produce and distribute enough vaccine to administer to everyone. If high blood pressure makes a difference, you'll do better solving that issue and reducing your chance of a lethal outcome than waiting for a vaccine.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
Yeah but pneumonia kills 30k pa aparantly.. So maybe some of those could have been caused by early cv but not recognised, and possibly been put down to flu or something else? I don't know how deep they go into finding the underlying cause?

According to the CDC's own website:

Despite a negative rapid test result, your health care provider may diagnose you with flu based on your symptoms and their clinical judgment.
...
Most people with flu symptoms are not tested because the test results usually do not change how you are treated.
...
Your health care provider may diagnose you with flu based on your symptoms and their clinical judgment or they may choose to use an influenza diagnostic test.

For the record, the flu and pneumonia are counted together. So when you see something like, the flu killed 50,000 people last year, it includes both of them.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Another recent article: UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

And Sunetra Gupta has no evidence for this optimistic theory.
From the Financial Times article-

" To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days."

As of yet they've done no testing. This is a serious issue, and choosing to ignore evidence from reputable bodies, like the WHO, which I believe you've classed as a 'terrorist organization' earlier in this thread while championing theories that 'it's not so bad' which have done no testing is just irresponsible. You should hold the articles you present as good to the same standard of evidence as those you dislike.

That article is certainly worth testing, but at present is nothing more thna a theory- and one that relies on a worldwide misdiagnose or inability to identify a disease.

 Gitzbitah wrote:
And Sunetra Gupta has no evidence for this optimistic theory.

That would be why the article's title is "A New Study Suggests...".

As of yet they've done no testing. This is a serious issue, and choosing to ignore evidence from reputable bodies, like the WHO, which I believe you've classed as a 'terrorist organization' earlier in this thread while championing theories that 'it's not so bad' which have done no testing is just irresponsible.

Technically, I said IF there are less than 50,000 deaths worldwide, the WHO should be considered a terrorist organization on behalf of the significant amount of economic and social damage to multiple countries done on behalf of them presenting this disease as a pandemic that will kill millions. Obviously, if they are right and the damage does turn out to be that bad, the fact that we'll see a recession with unemployment higher than the Great Depression might be a little more justified.

That article is certainly worth testing, but at present is nothing more thna a theory- and one that relies on a worldwide misdiagnose or inability to identify a disease.

The full article states that they intend to begin tests and have results in a few days.

Well according to
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

They are nearly half way to your 50K value and don't seem to be having any signs of globally diminishing numbers.

Right before coronavirus became a thing that was being talked about daily on the news, my girlfriend (who works in the tabletop industry and deals with lots of stuff sent over from China as well as people that hop back and forth) came down with something that took her out of work for about 2 weeks. I came down with it about a week later, and my parents about a week after that. We all basically recovered/were returning to work when deaths in China started being reported and all of us kinda did one of these:



All of us had had our flu shots for weeks/months at this point, so it definitely wasn't the flu (unless theres another strain going round that we weren't inoculated against?) and it seemed to hit all of us harder than the typical cold, so it was a bit mysterious. I can believe the idea that it started spreading sooner than it was thought, what I have trouble understanding is if it was spreading freely before and nothing was being done to flatten the curve, then how did we not see a huge upswing in hospitalizations and deaths sooner? Did it mutate to become more lethal after the first wave?

Mis-attribution to influenza doesn't exactly make sense, with how quickly the case count is doubling in spite of suppression/curve flattening efforts and how quickly healthcare systems have been overwhelmed as a result of its pathology we should have already seen the cases peak if that was the case. From what I understand, there are certain symptoms of coronavirus that mark it as unique from the flu, which is in part how it was first identified as a pattern of symptoms began to emerge which didn't fit with the flu or other illnesses, and viral cultures that were taken identified it as being a SARS-like coronavirus. Beyond that, given how severe hospitalized coronavirus cases are I would think at some point a hospitalized patient would have been tested for influenza and come up negative (as I understand it standard rapid flu tests will usually come up negative when coronavirus is present) despite exhibiting flu like symptoms, or a patient who received the flushot would have come in with flu like symptoms prompting the hospital to take a viral culture to determine how to address it - I would assume at this point they would have realized that it was not influenza they were dealing with, they might not have identified it as a new strain of coronavirus but I would think they would have still recognized it as a coronavirus in general and we would have seen a spike in coronavirus related reporting early on, even if it was not yet correlated with a new previously unseen strain.

Technically, I said IF there are less than 50,000 deaths worldwide, the WHO should be considered a terrorist organization on behalf of the significant amount of economic and social damage to multiple countries done on behalf of them presenting this disease as a pandemic that will kill millions. Obviously, if they are right and the damage does turn out to be that bad, the fact that we'll see a recession with unemployment higher than the Great Depression might be a little more justified.

Thats a dangerous "metric" - *IF* measures used to combat the coronavirus are/were successful, then we probably wouldn't see 50,000 deaths and most of us would probably think that this was a huge overreaction. That doesn't automatically correlate to the WHO being wrong, it could have simply been testament to the global crisis response to the virus. Flip side is that if a million people die that doesn't automatically mean that the WHO was right, it could just be that we were so inept at responding to the crisis that we tripped over ourselves and let it get out of hand.

 Overread wrote:
Well according to
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

They are nearly half way to your 50K value and don't seem to be having any signs of globally diminishing numbers.

Closer, if we also have to add in a month or more of misdiagnosed flu/pneumonia deaths from prior to the outbreak.


But it's a ridiculous metric anyway. See the previously mentioned Y2K bug response.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

chaos0xomega wrote:

All of us had had our flu shots for weeks/months at this point, so it definitely wasn't the flu (unless theres another strain going round that we weren't inoculated against?)

The flu shot doesn't protect you against every variety of flu virus. Just the more common ones.

I have opened a new thread for this information, it was locked. This is problematic as the advice below will now be lost in a long thread and I think it should get out there.

COVID-19 is a robust virus, it can remain on metal for 3 days, and cardboard or plastic for 6 days. Consequently supermarkets and groceries are now a vector. Surface infection is unlikely but it can happen. Here are ways to minimise risk:

1. Do NOT buy unsealed goods. - So dont buy anything from the deli counter, or consumables without a package. If you only follow one rule from this list follow this one.
2. Do buy disinfectant or bleach - You will need this to purify your items.
3. When shopping assume your hands are contaminated. Wear gloves if you can.
4. When you return home place ambient goods in a box and leave them for a week. Consider the box contaminated. If you need good earlier follow the procedures for fresh.
5. Run a sink of water with disinfectant. Dip all your items into the bowl, you don't need to submerge them long and the water can be cold, so long as there is a fair amount of disinfectant. Let the items drip then put them away. Handle your frozens first as you want a reasonable amount of time to drip them and you dont want icy product packaging. .
6. For cardboard containers add some disinfectant to a kitchen tissue paper and wipe down the items. Remember between wipes anything you pick up will become soiled, so this is why I recommend dipping.

Its less hassle than it sounds, just assume that your hands and your purchases are contaminated until they have been wiped, dipped or boxed for a week. This includes whatever else you touch.

 Sqorgar wrote:
If I'm not mistaken, the study which found how long the virus survives on external surfaces also said that it was not thought that the virus was primarily transferred in this manner. In the early stages of the virus' spread, they were able to directly follow its spread through personal contact. Currently, I'm unaware of any situation where someone has contracted the disease by taking home groceries.

But do whatever you need to do for you to feel safe.

You are misreading this. Outside of the initial spread of the disease nobody is able to isolate exactly when an infection occured. If one person in a city has it, and you catch it after meeting them, you know how you werre infected. That was then this is now. I was warned via NHS care staff, who are trained and updated on the virus regularly.
The virus lingers on surfaces, and there is an infection risk. It is moderated primarily by washing of hands and not touching ones face. This is why these instructions are given. Washing of hands will not stop the primary vector of infection, breathing in infected aerosol. Now the problem is within ones own home one doesnt always wash ones hands, and sometimes, in fact frequently touch ones face. Its a subconscious thing, its a casual thing. If you are in a home with no victims you are in a home with no virus, unless you bring it in somehow. People can infect themselves of thier familes by not taking precautions with groceries. If you wipe or dip your purchases then you can casually pick from the fridge, or go about your daily routine at home and not take persistent precaution. Which we will likely fail to do anyway.
Disinfecting your shopping packaging is the simplest way forwards, and no its not a placebo to make me feel safe. It's honest advice from someone who is well informed.

 thekingofkings wrote:

 Gitzbitah wrote:
I concur with ScarletRose, anything coming from Sqorgar needs to be taken with a mountain of salt. He's convinced that the Coronavirus is being wildly over-reported because the test has a 50% false positive according to one study, and that almost everyone dying is dying from the real killer- high blood pressure, which can be treated faster than we can develop a vaccine.

It's fascinating reading, and I highly recommend going back through the thread,but I would seriously question any information originating from this poster.

I don't see him as any less credible than anybody else here.

I would recommend improving your skill at evaluating credibility, before saying you see everyone in the thread at the intellectual level of 'WHO is a terrorist organization'.

At the least, I would avoid admitting it.

 Orlanth wrote:
I have opened a new thread for this information, it was locked. This is problematic as the advice below will now be lost in a long thread and I think it should get out there.

COVID-19 is a robust virus, it can remain on metal for 3 days, and cardboard or plastic for 6 days. Consequently supermarkets and groceries are now a vector. Surface infection is unlikely but it can happen. Here are ways to minimise risk:

1. Do NOT buy unsealed goods. - So dont buy anything from the deli counter, or consumables without a package. If you only follow one rule from this list follow this one.
2. Do buy disinfectant or bleach - You will need this to purify your items.
3. When shopping assume your hands are contaminated. Wear gloves if you can.
4. When you return home place ambient goods in a box and leave them for a week. Consider the box contaminated. If you need good earlier follow the procedures for fresh.
5. Run a sink of water with disinfectant. Dip all your items into the bowl, you don't need to submerge them long and the water can be cold, so long as there is a fair amount of disinfectant. Let the items drip then put them away. Handle your frozens first as you want a reasonable amount of time to drip them and you dont want icy product packaging. .
6. For cardboard containers add some disinfectant to a kitchen tissue paper and wipe down the items. Remember between wipes anything you pick up will become soiled, so this is why I recommend dipping.

Its less hassle than it sounds, just assume that your hands and your purchases are contaminated until they have been wiped, dipped or boxed for a week. This includes whatever else you touch.

 Sqorgar wrote:
If I'm not mistaken, the study which found how long the virus survives on external surfaces also said that it was not thought that the virus was primarily transferred in this manner. In the early stages of the virus' spread, they were able to directly follow its spread through personal contact. Currently, I'm unaware of any situation where someone has contracted the disease by taking home groceries.

But do whatever you need to do for you to feel safe.

You are misreading this. Outside of the initial spread of the disease nobody is able to isolate exactly when an infection occured. If one person in a city has it, and you catch it after meeting them, you know how you werre infected. That was then this is now. I was warned via NHS care staff, who are trained and updated on the virus regularly.
The virus lingers on surfaces, and there is an infection risk. It is moderated primarily by washing of hands and not touching ones face. This is why these instructions are given. Washing of hands will not stop the primary vector of infection, breathing in infected aerosol. Now the problem is within ones own home one doesnt always wash ones hands, and sometimes, in fact frequently touch ones face. Its a subconscious thing, its a casual thing. If you are in a home with no victims you are in a home with no virus, unless you bring it in somehow. People can infect themselves of thier familes by not taking precautions with groceries. If you wipe or dip your purchases then you can casually pick from the fridge, or go about your daily routine at home and not take persistent precaution. Which we will likely fail to do anyway.
Disinfecting your shopping packaging is the simplest way forwards, and no its not a placebo to make me feel safe. It's honest advice from someone who is well informed.

I'm sorry, but I've seen two other studies that say it only lives on cardboard for abour 24 hours. It remains on steel for 3 days, but copper for only 6 hours. Some of this information is wrong or misleading it seems. You should post a link to an actual source if you want people to believe it.

Audustum wrote:


I'm sorry, but I've seen two other studies that say it only lives on cardboard for abour 24 hours. It remains on steel for 3 days, but copper for only 6 hours. Some of this information is wrong or misleading it seems. You should post a link to an actual source if you want people to believe it.

Here is a link, one of many.

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext

There is a lot of conflicting advice about how long COVID-19 will last, most articles on the subject are vague at best, possibly we don't actually know. The NHS data suggests six days as a general ballpark figure. This is likely inflated for safety, as most safety information usually is. However with a virus this infectious it pays keep to the side of caution. This is COVID-19 we are talking about, you can wave your hands in a dismissive fashion, but this virus tends to feth with those who underestimate it.
Not long ago people were saying it was scaremongering to warn people about the virus and to prepare, they were wrong then, they are likely wrong now.
TAKE CORONOVIRUS SERIOUSLY.
There is a need to consider the danger of contaminated packing in grocery stores, it is a place that everyone needs to go, including the pre-symptomic infected yet it is an issue few are talking about. Frankly I think it is a blind spot in public awareness.

 insaniak wrote:
But it's a ridiculous metric anyway. See the previously mentioned Y2K bug response.

With the Y2k bug, we had years of preparation to hire COBOL programmers, inspect our software for vulnerabilities, update databases, and test changes.

In no way has the response to this virus been well prepared for. We've been told to stay home, but only after the virus was out in the wild for weeks (or even months, if you believe the Oxford theory). We're out of safety equipment, are still getting conflicting information on very basic facts about this virus (nobody even really sure how the virus is spread, much less how many people are actually infected), and we've only started testing in any reasonable number in the past two weeks. No doubt these measures will impact the numbers, but were they timely enough or capable enough to bring millions down to 50k? Not a chance. Half assed efforts don't give you results like that.

Not to mention that these measures were never intended to reduce the total number of cases, but to lengthen the time it took to spread so as to not overwhelm the hospitals. The WHO doesn't think the coronavirus is seasonal and as soon as the lockdowns end, a new outbreak will happen anew. No matter how you look at it, if there are only 50k deaths worldwide when this thing ends, the WHO was full of poop.

 Sqorgar wrote:
Not to mention that these measures were never intended to reduce the total number of cases, but to lengthen the time it took to spread so as to not overwhelm the hospitals.

...which reduces the number of deaths.

 Sqorgar wrote:
No matter how you look at it, if there are only 50k deaths worldwide when this thing ends, the WHO was full of poop.

No, that's how you are choosing to look at it. The other obvious way to look at it would be that they made predictions based on the information they had at the time, and the actual impact turned out to be less dire. At least in part because of the measures put in place around the world.


That's if we accept that we even need to make any sort of judgement of WHO based on your completely arbitrary number.

 insaniak wrote:

 Sqorgar wrote:
No matter how you look at it, if there are only 50k deaths worldwide when this thing ends, the WHO was full of poop.

No, that's how you are choosing to look at it. The other obvious way to look at it would be that they made predictions based on the information they had at the time, and the actual impact turned out to be less dire. At least in part because of the measures put in place around the world.

That's if we accept that we even need to make any sort of judgement of WHO based on your completely arbitrary number.

I see no reason to consider the impact 'less dire' at this time. The virus is accelerating, and not burning out. Pre-symptomic infected likely exist in large numbers, this pandemic is getting worse.
China appears to be over the hurdle, maybe they are, but maybe we are seeing the propaganda numbers, reports from China indicate that revisionism has already started and Chinese people are being urged to consider foreigners as primary disease vectors. We have no real idea what it happening in Iran except what we are told.
COVID-19 will be a problem for a considerable time, and will be hard to uproot from developing countries once established.

 Orlanth wrote:

I see no reason to consider the impact 'less dire' at this time. The virus is accelerating, and not burning out. Pre-symptomic infected likely exist in large numbers, this pandemic is getting worse.
China appears to be over the hurdle, maybe they are, but maybe we are seeing the propaganda numbers, reports from China indicate that revisionism has already started and Chinese people are being urged to consider foreigners as primary disease vectors. We have no real idea what it happening in Iran except what we are told.
COVID-19 will be a problem for a considerable time, and will be hard to uproot from developing countries once established.

No, I was referring to Sqorqar's hypothetical situation where in the wash-up it turns out there were fewer deaths than he deems acceptable.

The China thing is a logical one from thrir point of view. Reports are they are no longer getti g indiginous cases, with the new cases that are grtting being traced back to people who've come into the country from elsewhere.
Which was always a logical consequence of their complete and total lockdown policy. The entire world is going to play whack-a-mole with outbreaks until a vaccine is developped.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Only counter argument I can think of (I’m not up on Pension issues etc, so pinch of salt folks) is whether or not the fund managers should’ve taken action as soon as the seriousness of a Covid-19 was apparent

Not up on pensions, either, but I read a finance article that bonds went down a few days ago (could have gone up again with this market, of course). Just read this article about pensions that said, "Pension funds and so-called balanced mutual funds need to start re-jigging their portfolios in favor of stocks as the selloff in equities and rally in government bonds has driven down the value of their equity relative to their bond positions. ... Balanced mutual funds like so-called 60/40 funds, which divvy up 60% of their assets to stocks and 40% of their funds to bonds, tend to rebalance every month or two. ... This rebalancing dynamic as investors sell their inflated bondholdings and shift the funds into equities could drive as much as $800 to $900 billion of inflows in the coming weeks and months, he said." If the long-term market is actually still a bull, this means these pension funds and balanced mutual funds are essentially forced to buy during a fall, or, depending on the color of your glasses, "buying on the dip".
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-two-factors-may-be-driving-the-stock-markets-double-digit-gains-this-week-says-jp-morgan-strategist-2020-03-26?itm_source=parsely-api&mod=mw_more_headlines

BTW, "It is important to know that there isn’t a standard arbiter for a bull market, nor is there one for a bear market, or a correction — a decline of 10% from a recent top." Not too difficult to know if the markets are volatile, of course, and we even have an index, called the VIX for that.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-just-entered-a-bull-market-by-some-measures-but-it-sure-doesnt-feel-bullish-on-wall-street-2020-03-26?mod=real-estate-personal-finance
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp

 Sqorgar wrote:

 Gitzbitah wrote:
And Sunetra Gupta has no evidence for this optimistic theory.

That would be why the article's title is "A New Study Suggests...".

As of yet they've done no testing. This is a serious issue, and choosing to ignore evidence from reputable bodies, like the WHO, which I believe you've classed as a 'terrorist organization' earlier in this thread while championing theories that 'it's not so bad' which have done no testing is just irresponsible.

Technically, I said IF there are less than 50,000 deaths worldwide, the WHO should be considered a terrorist organization on behalf of the significant amount of economic and social damage to multiple countries done on behalf of them presenting this disease as a pandemic that will kill millions. Obviously, if they are right and the damage does turn out to be that bad, the fact that we'll see a recession with unemployment higher than the Great Depression might be a little more justified.

When deaths blitz past 50k in the next week or two, what's your plan to move these goalposts?

nfe wrote:

 Sqorgar wrote:

 Gitzbitah wrote:
And Sunetra Gupta has no evidence for this optimistic theory.

That would be why the article's title is "A New Study Suggests...".

As of yet they've done no testing. This is a serious issue, and choosing to ignore evidence from reputable bodies, like the WHO, which I believe you've classed as a 'terrorist organization' earlier in this thread while championing theories that 'it's not so bad' which have done no testing is just irresponsible.

Technically, I said IF there are less than 50,000 deaths worldwide, the WHO should be considered a terrorist organization on behalf of the significant amount of economic and social damage to multiple countries done on behalf of them presenting this disease as a pandemic that will kill millions. Obviously, if they are right and the damage does turn out to be that bad, the fact that we'll see a recession with unemployment higher than the Great Depression might be a little more justified.

When deaths blitz past 50k in the next week or two, what's your plan to move these goalposts?

I reccomend a saw and a hammer.



Automatically Appended Next Post:

Bran Dawri wrote:
The China thing is a logical one from thrir point of view. Reports are they are no longer getti g indiginous cases, with the new cases that are grtting being traced back to people who've come into the country from elsewhere.
Which was always a logical consequence of their complete and total lockdown policy. The entire world is going to play whack-a-mole with outbreaks until a vaccine is developped.

yeah, just as the statement the WHO copied that there is no human to human transmission in china, from china, for economic party reasons.

Meanwhile, in Belgium, the nurses and doctors working in the hospitals aren't still automatically tested for Covid-19...and there are already reported cases of suspicion of infecting patients in the hospital while they didn't have the virus before...Some people may have died because of this.

It's leading towards a fear in the population to go to the hospital for anything now...

And in France, a 16 years old died from Covid-19. It was also a mess, she was tested three times and said negative for two but the last one who took longer ended tested her positive. And she died from a more agressive pattern of the virus.

So yeah, there are problems with tests...

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:


Yeah but pneumonia kills 30k pa aparantly.. So maybe some of those could have been caused by early cv but not recognised, and possibly been put down to flu or something else? I don't know how deep they go into finding the underlying cause?

In the UK any unexpected death is investigated. Doctors have to be able to evidence why some passed away (especially if it happens in a hospital) otherwise they'll undertake an autopsy. We had some experience of this when my grandmother passed away and they couldn't identify a cause.

The flaw with the argument that CV was already out there is how you explain the current escalation in cases (not the actual numbers). If there was widespread infection earlier in the year then we should be way past the high increases in cases we are seeing now. For example in the US this is the tracked Flu/pneumonia cases over the years.

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ioU5ybu_6r.0/v1/-1x-1.png

As can be seen there is typical growth phase at the end of the year (Nov/Dec). This then peaks, flattens out and then declines. This is what is expected year on year. You can also see the degree of variability in cases year on year that simply cannot be associated with CV (unless we want to argue it is now 5 years old virus)

However when you look at CV for the US

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

You can see that we are just starting into the high growth phase. This is despite the control measures being put in place. This doesn't align at all with the flu/pneumonia seasonal outbreak.
As such if we utilise the argument that it was hidden into the annual flu season then we would have to explain:-

Why did the health system globally not identify that the number of pneumonia cases caused by influenza to be anomalously high (as for each case of flu you'd expect X number of pneumonia cases) and on top of this you would have to add CV cases
Why are we now seeing a very high increase in cases whilst we have some of the most stringent conditions in place. If it was spreading late last year then you would have expected a much higher rate of increase in cases because there was no lockdown at that time. Conversely we should now be seeing a slow down in cases (as we would be getting the 'herd immunity').
Why would this pandemic not follow the pattern of all other pandemics we have seen - this pandemic would be unique with a general (safe) transmission earlier and then suddenly explode into a more lethal disease and then go into another round of close to exponential expansion (it would have be 'double peaked')

It's too easy to say that it has been here for a while and just hidden in the figures of flu. But the current growth rate (rather than the absolute number of cases/deaths) does not support this hypothesis based on how every other infection develops that we know of.

 Whirlwind wrote:

Why would this pandemic not follow the pattern of all other pandemics we have seen - this pandemic would be unique with a general (safe) transmission earlier and then suddenly explode into a more lethal disease and then go into another round of close to exponential expansion (it would have be 'double peaked')

Ooh, ooh, I know...
The player chose China as their starting country, picked the perk that allowed them to remove mutations without costing points, saved up all their points until the infectivity was high, then spent it all in one go to maximise lethality. They're going to spend the rest of the game popping blue bubbles to reduce research on the cure.

What? You mean we're not playing Plague Inc., people are actually dying and that's not how viruses work?

Well I'm out.

I laughed more at that than i should've considering the situation Henry.

Boris Johnson is infected.