Hatemonger wrote:
I'm not making any predictions, but I think the X-Wing comparison is a good one: a strong IP couple with mass-market distribution which
did (briefly) unseat
GW as the most popular miniatures game.
Im coming out of my hiatus because of this - you've picked at a personal bugbear.
No, it didn't.
ICV2 is junk data. It covers the north american (maybe actually just the US, think Canada may be excluded) market only and the data is pulled from a handful of distributors and major hobby retailers with arbitrary guess-work to try to fill in the knowledge gaps.
GW self-distributes the vast majority of its products (
iirc they have a distribution deal with alliance which accounts for less than 10% of their sales volume) and its direct retail and online sales channels are a huge portion of their sales. A huge portion of their sales is missing missing from
GWs sales data.
To further illustrate the point, the year that X-Wing *supposedly* dethroned
40k as the bigget seller, Fantasy Flights total revenue across *all* their product lines (which we know courtesy of financial statements released by Asmodee at the time of FFGs acquisition) amounted to some $30-40 million bucks.
GWs revenue that same year was like... $150+ million
IIRC, and while
GW has multiple product lines at the time
40k was probably the majority of that revenue (there was basically no drop in revenue as a result of discontinuing
WHFB around that same timeframe, for example, and as fun as
MESBG is Im not sure its a major revenue driver). There is no conceivable way that X-Wing was anywhere near
40k in scale.