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What was the catalyst for GW's share price rise July through September?

Was there a change in the significant stakeholders? News?

What did I miss?

plc

Compare the last quarter's economic trends to GW's last quarter of BIG releases, and stack on some hefty game licenses... No one should be surprised that Games Workshop is a hell of a lot better off than it was at the start of this year. I'm hoping to see new IG next year, and Warhammer is about up to Skaven by now, surely? Plenty of potential to sell more models there.

Also price increases are effective today in Australia. My VERY Flgs sold me a pot of skull white for a fiver, letting me know that they went up to six dollars today.

Paint has stably moving up at about 10% of the current common boxed set price (3.50 paint / $35 box etc) over the past ten years or so I've been paying attention.

I'm not convinced that the plastic boxed set won't go up pretty soonish (12 months maybe), and any plastic boxes with metal bits are going up either way. Groan.

Wait... prices are going up in Australia? Canadia gets a decrease to bring it line with the rest of the world, yet ours go up???

WTF???

BYE

That's odd. Prices at my FLG are fine. Maybe no one really cares about Tassie at all.

There was a move in the share price from GBP 1.25 to above GBP 2.60. That's more than the foreshadowed price rises and Skaven/IG being on the horizon.

My FLGS marks 10% below GW's RRP, so their prices are going up a little - there was overall confusion as they aren't quite sure what GW's current prices are, as the pricing bands are apparently irrelevant now, or at least different enough so that two different Band D models might be differently priced. Groan.

At least eBay still knows what's going on.

Start of this year I was really considering investment when I heard 5th ed was coming out this year, and WAR/DOWII soon(ish) after. I just didn't have any money back then... Heh.

EDIT: I was trying to order stuff in - their shelf prices are sticking until they sell, presumably.

H.B.M.C. wrote:Wait... prices are going up in Australia? Canadia gets a decrease to bring it line with the rest of the world, yet ours

That isnt the case, Canada is being brought in line with the USA for GW North America. Oz is on its own so Ozan suck it up. Similarly the Uk has higher prices because UK being an island is seperate from mainland Europe and so there is no cross border retail. Its called the Treasure Island principle, geographically isolated nations pay more in retail mark ups.

But isn't the UK where GW started? Shouldn't THEY have the low prices?

I can only put it down to speculation about WaR. Not only do they get some money from it in itself (though how much I don't know. I doubt it's megabucks like) but also, the game serves as advertising for the rest of the products.

If GW has upped the price of paints to $6AUS then the last thing that I was buying at my local GW store (the paints) is now also going to be shipped from the a web store in the UK at $4.50AUS, free shipping and at my door in 6-7 days.

The savings will go to Bitz from GWUK mailorder which rather annoyingly does make me pay for shipping and takes over 20 days to get here. :( (Still waiting for my last GW UK order, whilst I've received 3 from Maelstrom Games)

The share price has probably improved because GW posted a profit in their last financial statement. 'The market' believes that GW have turned around their troubles. GW is not yet fully recovered and has only slowed their decline in sales but they made a profit so their share price probably reflects this improvement.

Warhammer online? Some of that revenue has to be coming back to GW right?

I suspect it is mainly a function of the rest of the staock market tumbling, but the "market" seeing gaming stocks as being relatively recession-proof. Everyone's piling out of retailing stocks, banking stocks, building stocks. These people need to put their money back into SOMETHING as they can't only invest in oil and gold...

TBH the stock market is so volatile at the moment its hard to read anything much into the rise.

The stock rise happened pre the latest volatility.

A 100%+ increase in little over 6 weeks suggests a major rethink on the stock - or serious stock supply issues (with people having to get it).

Given GW made a very public call to shun the City and just deal with its 4 main external shareholders (plus Mums and Dads) it is very suggestive that there is a real underlying reason. I was interested as to what it was.

Warhammer Online? Maybe, but a doubling in stock price?

Majority of the Stakeholders, far as I am aware, are Pension Companies and other assosciated types of business. So, coupled with WaR attracting short term speculators, the current flow and eddy of the market could be causing said Pension companies to invest in more stable stocks.

After all, GW is a market leader that has traditionally survived recession pretty intact, and even managed to grow. In turbulent times, it's likely seen as a safer port. Sure, you don't get a terribly big dividend, if any at all, but most importantly, your money should be safe until things calm down and it can be put to better, more profitable use.

They do have a lot more capital to back things up than, say, an investment bank right now.

(Did I say that right? I listen to Marketplace, but I don't take notes).

Yup. GW has always had a good track record with Credit. Certainly, new Machines and Facilities are rarely, at least to my knowledge, bought on the never never.

The Eurohub at Lenton was paid for before it was bought, and the same for all the machines. GW owns them 100%, and not some Bank.

Someone cynically mentioned about how there sales still dropped. Yes, this is true. But most investors care more about profits going up than sales. If you can achieve both, then great, obviously. But if even with dropping sales, you can squeeze out a higher profit margin, then thats good too. It's only when sales go up/profits drop, or both drop that people get dubious.