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"If a product sells, people are going to keep selling it."

This idea sparked a train of thought in the Grand Central Station that is my brain. Since 40k generates quite a bit of money (or so I would like to believe), there is no doubt that Games Workshop will continue to sell it. The game has been around for more than twenty years and has been successful throughout most of that time, but how about the next twenty years? The thing is, what will our beloved 40k look like in the next 10, 20, or 30 years? Will each army remain relatively unchanged, as some have been for the last decade or so (I'm looking at YOU Dark Eldar), or, with the advent of today's cleaner, more stream-lined system (again, something that I would like to believe) will the armies look radically different? In the next decade, will each army be a game unto itself, with a codex as thick as a brick? Will we see a day when the dark eldar have more than 5 army choices or when the necrons have *gasp* TWO troop choices or *epic gasp* TWO vehicles? Or, will the game even be around in the next decade or so (highly unlikely that that is)? What will be the state of our thrice loved game when all ideas have been exhausted and the rules have been, dare I say it, perfected?

Your questions/comments/thoughts/flames?

I doubt we will be playing with little plastic men in 30 years. Maybe little virtually plastic virtual men that are virtually tiny in cyberspace. But not actual plastics. Besides I don't think you want to see the cost of base metals or especially plastics in 30 years.

I suspect that the rules will continue to evolve as they have been, with future editions basically just tweaking to try to bring the game closer to whatever their current 'ideal' is, and with armies slowly growing as each Codex revision adds in a couple of new units.

The bigger change I would expect to be with the miniatures themselves. At some point, I fully expect that GW will be forced to incorporate either pre-paints or downloadable 'Print them yourself on your desktop 3D printer' miniatures... which will obviously change rather significantly the way the game is sold and presented.

I don't know. I think the game will still exist in a similar capacity as it does now in the future. Nothing incredibly drastic. I suppose some armies will change a little in play style as new codexes are released. About the game still existing, there is just something I like about having a physical object that can't be deleted or banned. I like to paint to. Working with my hands, as minimally as I do even in this hobby, is fun and I don't think that will lose appeal as we move into the future.

Of course it will change. It HAS to change otherwise it stagnates. The rules set is designed for pure simplicity as much as possible, so a lack of change kills it. You don't put out new models, the minis part stagnates and dies. Just look at the difference the Tyranids went through (and they have only changed three times, really) and you can see that in 10 years many of the armies of today will be mostly unrecognizable.

There are FAR too many rules paradoxes yet to make for the game to die out anytime soon. Too many errata still to write. So many nonsensical rules to come up with, armies to nerf, and solid mechanics to change and screw up.

GW and 40k will be around for a LOOOONG time yet.



Ghidorah

I think 40k will go progressively more 2nd edition while staying the same. They seem to have Librarian powers figured out, for example. Even Smite. Maybe two or three more editions they can finally get Chaos Marine/ Space Marine and Inquisition HQ in line with one another.

I foresee only changes in art style, more plastics, and periodic rules changes (with a full 40k reboot 2016-ish). There's something that just feels really good about having physical miniatures to play with, and I don't think that is going to change to virtual systems anytime soon.

The 3D printing may be a legitimate inroad on the recasting problem, but it may still be too expensive to make economic sense for people to do.

One possibility in the further future would be models that had electro-pigments of some sort built in, so you could "paint" them virtually somehow. Certainly that's down the road a ways, but would be an interesting idea.

Exactly. Some of us work with computers for our living, and want a game that allows us to get away from keyboards and socialize with friends. I don't think games with this appeal will ever go away, in spite of increasing competition from electronic games.

40k will never go away. Heck, there are still people who play Rogue Trader! Whether it will continue to provide the mainstay income for a £multi-million international company? Who can say?

I don't particularly see tabletop games and video games as mutually exclusive entities. The two styles of gaming are different enough to live happily side by side I believe.

Whether some technological innovation will replace plastic models to the extent GW have replaced metals ones in their range? Who knows. Its possible. But on the other hand even 20+ years after GW first produced "Psycho Styrene" and "Drastic Plastic" models to the scene, there are still many other companies out there founded solidly on a white-metal product base, and the tin price will have to rise massively before that goes away - if Old Glory can offer painted metal historical models for $2 a pop, then I have no fears of being priced out of the metal market entirely for decades to come!

Innovation and change in the range of products on offer I forsee. The one thing I can't see is the market for little metal (and plastic) men drying up completely!

The market for Wargames *is* shrinking. Look at the state of the wider hobby. Rackham appear to be doing a 'Pheonix' Wizkids is nigh on dead, and GW have had to do some rather dramatic restructuring.

However, I do believe this shrinkage has a limit. The Hobby will survive. There are too many crotchety old gits like myself who will play, and as long as we play, there is demand that will be met in some fashion or other. And as long as we play, we will bring others in to the fold. This is where GW got it right. Rather than depend on advertising for new blood, they use their existing player base and supply chain.

Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:The market for Wargames *is* shrinking. Look at the state of the wider hobby. Rackham appear to be doing a 'Pheonix' Wizkids is nigh on dead, and GW have had to do some rather dramatic restructuring.

However, I do believe this shrinkage has a limit. The Hobby will survive. There are too many crotchety old gits like myself who will play, and as long as we play, there is demand that will be met in some fashion or other. And as long as we play, we will bring others in to the fold. This is where GW got it right. Rather than depend on advertising for new blood, they use their existing player base and supply chain.

Can't agree with you there. The market is changing, not shrinking. What is happening is that you don't need big company's or in fact what is more accurate, are big systems anymore.

In the last year I have picked up, Rules of Engagement, Hour of Glory, Infinity and Pirates. On top of this you have Hell Dorado, the stuff produced by Warlord Games, WWI rules & models, The Uncharted Seas, Secrets of the 3rd Reich and the Perry twins producing plastic ACW models.

So I would say that the market place is strong, but it would hard, if not impossible to become another GW

Redbeard wrote:Exactly. Some of us work with computers for our living, and want a game that allows us to get away from keyboards and socialize with friends. I don't think games with this appeal will ever go away, in spite of increasing competition from electronic games.

Amen brother!! The mini's are a BIG part of the hobby. You can't just walk away from what attracted 80% of us to the game to begin with. While I do enjoy a good PC game, I like to paint my "litle toy soldiers" as my wife would say to relax. Just look at historical miniatures. This is a hobby that has endured in the US since the colonies. As long as there a kids, and grown adults who don't quite want to put away their childish things (again- another wife quote...don't shoot the messanger!) miniature games will allways exist.

40k is a physical game of toy soldiers. That's the point. It's not going to go virtual, like MTGO.

I don't think that will necessarily hold true in 30 years. Painting is a physical activity, or at least it was. The vast majority of commercial and personal art is now done digitally, with studio and classroom art being some of the remaining hold outs of high cost traditional painting. In thirty years I doubt very much we will see much painting on canvass at all. It's a transition that has really taken hold in only fifteen years. Times and peoples preferences change considerably in the space of two generations.

Well, i think it comes down to whatever psychological desire 40k fills.

It's pretty clearly not the need to have a good simulation, or even a top notch beer and pretzel's ruleset. The rules are improving but still not really worth buying in for.

Part of it is the background and universe, but that could be done in digital format.

A big part is the creativity: creating your own army, color scheme, conversions, etc. In time digital options will cover nearly all RL options, but it'll take some time.

I think a big part fo the reason is the simple hoarding aspect. I own, in metal and plastic, a tiny little army. I think that's a huge aspect for many people. Digital armies will satisfy most of it, but there will always be the pleasure of a table full of terrain, the real 3d aspect of it all, the weight of the models, etc.

The social aspect is another big part of it. Talking to an opponent, sharing a meal, playing a game. Sitting around and shooting the breeze afterward. These activities aren't going to be replaced by virtual game play.

It's possible that even 40k will sink down to the popularity of other wargames, but there will always be people that want to push lead around.

Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:The market for Wargames *is* shrinking. Look at the state of the wider hobby. Rackham appear to be doing a 'Pheonix' Wizkids is nigh on dead, and GW have had to do some rather dramatic restructuring.

However, I do believe this shrinkage has a limit. The Hobby will survive. There are too many crotchety old gits like myself who will play, and as long as we play, there is demand that will be met in some fashion or other. And as long as we play, we will bring others in to the fold. This is where GW got it right. Rather than depend on advertising for new blood, they use their existing player base and supply chain.

You are looking at a couple of very specialist companies in the fantasy/SF segment.

If you look at historicals, there has never been a better time to be a wargamer. More scales than ever before, more rulesets, more variety of armies, in metal and plastic. (Perry Brothers even do Carlist War figures! What are they?) And easy access via internet to all these resources plus materials, ideas, painting guides, history and discussion.

I agree with everyone who commented about the difference in physicality between computer games and tabletop games. It is a unique selling point of wargames. There is tons more fun in planning, buying, building and painting an army than in buying a string of 0s and 1s.

When painting a 40k army is as simple as positioning the medicine dropper over the model and clicking, then checking the box for "dirt" 40k will be viritual.

Until then, 40k is sitll going to be something of a craft game.

Ask this question again after the 40K MMO comes out. One of the things I have been seeing as of the past 5 years is GW retooling itself to try to compinsate for its loss of ground in terms of operating cost, product cost, and overrun reduction.

Things to compensate for the loss of sales of the basic games are - Books, RPG's, computer games, merch such as pins, T shirts, etc.
Specialist games possibly reemerging with a streameline approach, and possible revamping the old standards with some of the retooled product. PDF's of the old games, so you have the urge to buy new product to play the old game ( Gorkamorka, Necromunda, Mordhiem, Blood Bowl)
Im still scratching my head over the decision to scrap the 40K RPG, seeing that it was a hit the first week it came out, but I'm considering that GW had to choose between it or the MMO for the fantasy game. Bucks on the computer game were probibly more, so the computer killed the paper and pen star.

These companies have to change and adapt to suit the market. Though the consumer base will change, there will be a basic nich to fill.


Want a great example? Ask Detriot what happens when they become fat and sassy thinking they are the top shelf. GW figured it out, and continually tries to reinvent itself to try to at least fill the fan bases need. Funny little guys like Jervis can continue to try to influence the changes, but bottom line will be that Market drives the change. If they don't sell, they will pull back the stops on the companies and try to keep from bleeding to death with wasteful spending and stupid hat tricks. Guys like him have a knack for either falling in step with the company line, or joining the unemployment one.


Plastic- depending on cost per production, they will change to cheaper plastic mixs, polymer base, or something along the lines of the grey plastic that has become the GW standard as of now. They changes thier mix a couple of more times, but as of now, thier grey seems to be the best and can keep the detail amongst all of thier previous plastics.

Metal is a thing of the past. Between the doomsayers and the law with leads, the cornering of the tin market, and the expenses of the miniatures companies per cost of the product, they cannot keep producing metal miniatues on a large scale, as with the past "Blister packs." Possible ideas for the futue, a buy back program, to try to gather up some of that lost metals and unsold product base out there to recast to newer products, a cheaper tin alternative mix, possible white mix metals in the future, and continued repackaging of the plastics.
"Blister pack" plastics, specialized sprues. Maybe sell a base unit, and sell the sprue bits for the different units. IE assult troopers/ jump packs.

Repackaging to plastic baggies, or cardstock envelopes.

40K/ Fantasy/GW Games are not mainstream games like Risk, Rockem-Sockem Robots, or Clue. To sell a nich game, they need to go back to the basics of cultivating a need for the product, encouraging the need, and filling the need.

When they figure out the happy medium between changing for the sake of change, and improving the products, games, and sales program, then they go from red to blue.

As long as they have the IP, they will continue to try to do something with it.

Headlines from 2021:

"40k, which began as a harmless game in the late 20th century, grew into a vessel for the very real Ruinous Powers to preach their horrific litany to the weak and receptive minds of Earth. This led to widespread corruption and war amongst the nations, scourging humanity of all but the most ruthless, and leaving behind the barren shadow of society in which we suffer today.

In other news, Games Workshop of Slaaneshire, UK, suffered from a 30% loss in value of stock (NASDAQ: ASTKNF) on the release of the 17th edition of Codex: Space Marines and the 2nd edition of Codex: Witchhunters."

I am going to be very interested in how GW survives the upcoming year. The economy in NA & Europe are tanking. This recession is not like the last two we had which were pretty shallow, This one is going to last a while and it is affecting businesses that are often considered Recession Resistant.

i personally belicve that GW will fortify its position and only strengthen as it reaches out into the gaming sector and maybe movie [yay, if rumours are true], the models may be modelled alittle differently and the rules revised but i see GW growing and fast, as the computer gaming sector will lure more into the models

Squig_herder wrote:i personally believe that GW will fortify its position and only strengthen as it reaches out into the gaming sector and maybe movie [yay, if rumors are true], the models may be modeled a little differently and the rules revised but i see GW growing and fast, as the computer gaming sector will lure more into the models

I hope so, but GW is going to have to change there business model if they are going to try to do that. The prices they are currently charging for there models are so high I just don't see them growing all that much. Money is too tight and the rampant consumerism that was a hall mark of us Americans is really starting to wane.

Bad times all over the world on all markets will also hit this "hobby" consuments and manufacturers. How is almost impossible to say but cutbacks and effectiving will have to be done all along the lines.

I expect GW to further license their IP for other media segments and markets. I don't see much else sustaining them as a business in the 5-10 year timeframe.

groz wrote:Headlines from 2021:

"40k, which began as a harmless game in the late 20th century, grew into a vessel for the very real Ruinous Powers to preach their horrific litany to the weak and receptive minds of Earth. This led to widespread corruption and war amongst the nations, scourging humanity of all but the most ruthless, and leaving behind the barren shadow of society in which we suffer today.

In other news, Games Workshop of Slaaneshire, UK, suffered from a 30% loss in value of stock (NASDAQ: ASTKNF) on the release of the 17th edition of Codex: Space Marines and the 2nd edition of Codex: Witchhunters."

And yet the DoW Jones is up 40%...

Hello from Scotland!
I'd like to think thatit will exist for a long time to come.Mind you the
price hikes keep coming..God forbid if everything we do revolves sitting
in front of a computer!That would be a horrendous future.I think what
they should be doing is bringing out more races instead of countless
reprints of army codexes.And here is a radical thought, I think they
should involve other figure manufacturers to bring new races and ideas
to the 40k universe,The one thing I feel is that 40k is a little stale
at the moment.

GW will be around for ages. I think the models will get better the rules will change but still have similar problem to now, and there will always be spaz marinz

insaniak wrote:I suspect that the rules will continue to evolve as they have been, with future editions basically just tweaking to try to bring the game closer to whatever their current 'ideal' is, and with armies slowly growing as each Codex revision adds in a couple of new units.

The bigger change I would expect to be with the miniatures themselves. At some point, I fully expect that GW will be forced to incorporate either pre-paints or downloadable 'Print them yourself on your desktop 3D printer' miniatures... which will obviously change rather significantly the way the game is sold and presented.

3D Printing is definitely an issue GW may need to consider in the future. What will happen then? Will they sell the programs needed to print miniatures, or will they make the miniatures themselves out of certain materials (most likely the former than the latter?).