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So, Skaven magic gets Irresistible Force on a roll of a 13, not two 6s like everyone else. I suck at math, so could someone else work out whether Skaven are more or less likely to roll Irresistible Force than other casters?

Is it more likely on 3 or 4 dice, compared to needing double 6s, either at 3 or 4 dice?

On 4 dice it's about 50/50...using no formulas whatsoever.

50/50 seems really high.

Okay, so I just ran some numbers on it- curious myself. No promises on this, but here's what I think I've got. These take into account irresistible force, removing those scenarios where you have an overriding miscast (i.e. Skaven would be up around 10.8% on 4 dice, except you have to remove combinations that miscast, like 1, 1, 5, 6)

4 dice-

Skaven: 10.1%
Standard: 13.1%

3 dice-

Skaven: 9.7%
Standard: 7.4%

Summary: Skaven come out on top at 3 dice, but lose out a little at 4 dice. If you're just trying to roll IF with a Skaven caster, throw 4 dice, but bear in mind you're more likely to miscast.

It would be great if someone could check the numbers here, but I fell pretty okay about them.

RZ

Hmmm, given those numbers, 3 dice really seems to be the ideal amount to roll for most Skaven spells. The chance of rolling a 13 isn't much higher with 4 dice, but the miscast chance is.

Other than rolling for Plague (a 13), 3 dice will be enough most of the time. (second highest casting value is a 9) Thanks for the help, RZ.

Yeah for sure. You might want to scope out the Under-Empire. I feel like someone must have done this exercise there, so you can check my math on that one.

RZ

I had a slow day at work a few months ago, and cranked up Excel for this purpose. Basically, for 3D6, I had three columns showing all the possible results for the three dice. A formula in each row then counted 1 or zero if there were at least two sixes present. All the ones were added up to get the total count of results where at least two sixes were present. It's been a while, since I had prob-stat, so I like to physically see the possible outcomes.

[Edit] Naturally more dice would increase the chances. [/Edit]

2D6:
No of possible 12 (double six) results: 1/36
Percentage: 0.0278

3D6:
No of possible 12 (double six) results: 16/216
Percentage: 0.0741

No of possible 13 results: 21/216
Percentage: 0.0972

ZF-

http://underempire.net/index.php?showtopic=19963&hl=, Here's some calculations. (Not me, ignore the slightly annoying text)