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50/50 seems really high.

Okay, so I just ran some numbers on it- curious myself. No promises on this, but here's what I think I've got. These take into account irresistible force, removing those scenarios where you have an overriding miscast (i.e. Skaven would be up around 10.8% on 4 dice, except you have to remove combinations that miscast, like 1, 1, 5, 6)

4 dice-

Skaven: 10.1%
Standard: 13.1%

3 dice-

Skaven: 9.7%
Standard: 7.4%

Summary: Skaven come out on top at 3 dice, but lose out a little at 4 dice. If you're just trying to roll IF with a Skaven caster, throw 4 dice, but bear in mind you're more likely to miscast.

It would be great if someone could check the numbers here, but I fell pretty okay about them.

RZ

Yeah for sure. You might want to scope out the Under-Empire. I feel like someone must have done this exercise there, so you can check my math on that one.

RZ