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 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
At any rate, anti-semitism is only a symptom of a much larger problem damaging this nation: the break down of law and order.

The rest of this post is like the Daily Mail Headline Generator. But on this point, when exactly did the breakdown of law and order start? When was it great? Because I'm going to have a wager than whenever it was, anti-Semitism, and certainly racism directed at other groups, was way worse.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
At any rate, anti-semitism is only a symptom of a much larger problem damaging this nation: the break down of law and order.

The first duty of any government is defence of the realm and then upholding the rule of law. The Tories have failed on this.

A few days ago, we learned that crime is on the increase across this great nation.

Today, on the BBC website, I learn that violence in prisons is on the up, and that prison guards were taken ill from drug fumes wafting through our prisons.

I also learned that prisoners were being let out early! Was that an honest mistake? Or prisoners tricking the authorities into early release?

I don't know anymore

Drug driving is on the up. Cybercrime. You name it. It's like Dark Age Britain.

Even if we catch and convict criminals, we can't even keep the fethers under lock and key any more!

You've heard me bang this drum many a time, but I ask my fellow dakka members this question:

what does UK stand for? United Kingdom or uncontrolled krimewave?

Jeez,
drug driving - It has only been since 2015 that this has been a target for police figures. And is only made viable due to developments in drug testing kit. Previously drug driving relied on the police giving 'drug drivers' tests such as standing on one leg. There is a concern that there are big differences between forces in how they tackle this crime - Budget and responses to ratings and targets drives this.

Violence in prison is increasing due to overcrowding and the lack of opportnity for inmates. Directly tied to constantly cutting funding AND a highly politicised view of what to do with inmates. If you really want to know the kind of conditions and people that are inside PM me.

Early releases? The blame is directly laid at the door of the prison service and NOMS. Incompetence ahoy.

These are fair points, but as always, I say this: never overlook perception.

There is clearly a malaise gripping the UK, and the perception is that it's bad and getting worse.

Only today I read in the local paper that an armed gang robbed a hotel

People are fearful, OAPs are scared witless, and we officially know that police numbers are down, prisons are packed to the rafters, and our weak and incompetent government seem unable or unwilling to fulfill government's primary duty: defence of realm, property, and the rule of law.

This perception will have negative consequnces not only at home, but abroad.

Who will invest in an increasingly corrupt and crime-ridden Britain?

This is beyond domestic politics - this is international now!

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Only today I read in the local paper that an armed gang robbed a hotel

By that you mean some people smashed a window display at a jewellers and stole some watches with nobody being injured.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
These are fair points, but as always, I say this: never overlook perception.

There is clearly a malaise gripping the UK, and the perception is that it's bad and getting worse.

Only today I read in the local paper that an armed gang robbed a hotel

People are fearful, OAPs are scared witless, and we officially know that police numbers are down, prisons are packed to the rafters, and our weak and incompetent government seem unable or unwilling to fulfill government's primary duty: defence of realm, property, and the rule of law.

This perception will have negative consequnces not only at home, but abroad.

Who will invest in an increasingly corrupt and crime-ridden Britain?

This is beyond domestic politics - this is international now!

Your perception is skewed by your own slanted viewpoint and consumption of the media?

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
These are fair points, but as always, I say this: never overlook perception.

There is clearly a malaise gripping the UK, and the perception is that it's bad and getting worse.

The perception?

No, the perception of some. A small minority, at that.

Also

'The People'


Sorry DINLT. With everything that has happened politically over the last few years this sticks out to me. Not trying to pick on you.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
A...

So what happened to a tidal wave of xenophobia? The British Empire reborn? Foreigners fleeing for their lives?

Anti-Semitic incidents 'at record level in UK'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40735634

Sadly, anti-Semitism existed in the UK long before we joined the EU/EEC, so can Brexit be blamed for this? What about other mitigating factors:

If you read the article it shows that anti-semitic attacks have increased hugely since Brexit.

Brexit was immediately followed by a wave of anti-foreigner and also anti-semitism. Brexit legitimised anti-foreigner hatred among a section of the population who previously had been suppressed by public opinion.

There aren't any mitigating factors.

But if you want to look at history for a guide, it's only in the past 100 years that the UK had a policy of stopping immigration, so Brexit is a weird aberration.

Anti-semitic attacks have been having a large uptick for some time now, long before Brexit appeared on the horizon. There was a discussion on here about it some three and a half years ago. The two topics are quite unrelated if you examine the trend. If there's one group of people nobody's ever felt the need to be legitimised to attack, throughout history and across the world, it's the Jews.

Here's the number of recorded attacks since 1997.


To insert the missing figures, there were 960 incidents in 2015, and 1,309 in 2016. In 2016, the incidents were spread uniformly throughout the year, both before and after the referendum. (source is the CST report).

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
These are fair points, but as always, I say this: never overlook perception.

There is clearly a malaise gripping the UK, and the perception is that it's bad and getting worse.

Only today I read in the local paper that an armed gang robbed a hotel

People are fearful, OAPs are scared witless, and we officially know that police numbers are down, prisons are packed to the rafters, and our weak and incompetent government seem unable or unwilling to fulfill government's primary duty: defence of realm, property, and the rule of law.

This perception will have negative consequnces not only at home, but abroad.

Who will invest in an increasingly corrupt and crime-ridden Britain?

This is beyond domestic politics - this is international now!

The actual figures paint a different picture however.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmar2017

You are less likely as an individual to be affected by crime. However by pure numbers crime is going up because there are more people in the Country. Hence both the idea that crime is rising is in someways (there are more crimes) but because a lot are reported in the media it provides the perception that we are at more risk of crime when we are not. 0.01% of a million is a lot more crimes than 10% of one hundred, but you are at much greater risk of being affected in the latter than the former. However you will hear a lot more about them in the former scenario as it provides more news worthy stories.

As for who will invest in Britain, I think most will be more worried about the mess the government is making of Wrexit than the risk of crime.

 Ketara wrote:
Anti-semitic attacks have been having a large uptick for some time now, long before Brexit appeared on the horizon. There was a discussion on here about it some three and a half years ago. The two topics are quite unrelated if you examine the trend. If there's one group of people nobody's ever felt the need to be legitimised to attack, throughout history and across the world, it's the Jews.

Here's the number of recorded attacks since 1997.


To insert the missing figures, there were 960 incidents in 2015, and 1,309 in 2016. In 2016, the incidents were spread uniformly throughout the year, both before and after the referendum. (source is the CST report).

More support for the Brexit theory. The support for Brexit was partly xenophobic. As it grew, there was more pressure for the referendum. The referendum campaign featured a lot of xenophobia.
Once the referendum result appeared to legitimise xenophobia, it was given more leash. Xenophobic crimes increased.

Remember the "Enemies of the People".

 Kilkrazy wrote:


More support for the Brexit theory. The support for Brexit was partly xenophobic. As it grew, there was more pressure for the referendum. The referendum campaign featured a lot of xenophobia.
Once the referendum result appeared to legitimise xenophobia, it was given more leash. Xenophobic crimes increased.

Remember the "Enemies of the People".

Errr......I'm sorry, I see absolutely no evidence for that view. That's nothing more than assuming correlation is causation.

 Ketara wrote:
Anti-semitic attacks have been having a large uptick for some time now, long before Brexit appeared on the horizon. There was a discussion on here about it some three and a half years ago. The two topics are quite unrelated if you examine the trend. If there's one group of people nobody's ever felt the need to be legitimised to attack, throughout history and across the world, it's the Jews.

Here's the number of recorded attacks since 1997.


To insert the missing figures, there were 960 incidents in 2015, and 1,309 in 2016. In 2016, the incidents were spread uniformly throughout the year, both before and after the referendum. (source is the CST report).

The variations here aren't statistically significant at the three sigma level. The median of the data is 533.5 incidents per year with a standard deviation of about 239.9. That means the number of incidents needs to be above about 1250 to be 99% confident that any year on year variation is not just due to statistical effects (i.e. anything below this value has a high chance of just being a 'natural' year by year variation)


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Ketara wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:


More support for the Brexit theory. The support for Brexit was partly xenophobic. As it grew, there was more pressure for the referendum. The referendum campaign featured a lot of xenophobia.
Once the referendum result appeared to legitimise xenophobia, it was given more leash. Xenophobic crimes increased.

Remember the "Enemies of the People".

Errr......I'm sorry, I see absolutely no evidence for that view. That's nothing more than assuming correlation is causation.

Lord Ashcroft poll on why people voted Wrexit...

"•Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.” Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice “about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead.” Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that “when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it.”

33% of people voting Wrexit did so over immigration fears.

 Whirlwind wrote:

The variations here aren't statistically significant at the three sigma level. The median of the data is 533.5 incidents per year with a standard deviation of about 239.9. That means the number of incidents needs to be above about 1250 to be 99% confident that any year on year variation is not just due to statistical effects (i.e. anything below this value has a high chance of just being a 'natural' year by year variation)

I'm sure that reassures all the people who are very clearly suffering considerably more abuse on average than they did two decades ago.

I mean, using that sort of statistical analysis, even the rise of anti-semitism in Nazi Germany wouldn't be 'statistically significant'. Which says a lot about its utility in scenarios such as this.



Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Whirlwind wrote:

Lord Ashcroft poll on why people voted Wrexit...

"•Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.” Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice “about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead.” Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that “when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it.”

33% of people voting Wrexit did so over immigration fears.

And? Most Jews were already here and not visibly Jewish. They integrate and make themselves inconspicuous. Very deliberately. They don't walk around wearing yarmulkhs (unless they're seriously frum).

Seriously, go and read any of the reports on the matter if you want to start digging into motivations behind anti-semitism in Britain. Christ knows there's enough of them, by actual experts. 'Those damn Europeans taking our jobs' doesn't tend to be listed among the reasons for chucking a brick through a synagogue window with a swastika on it or shouting at the local Rabbi about world dominating money hungry Jews.

 Ketara wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:


More support for the Brexit theory. The support for Brexit was partly xenophobic. As it grew, there was more pressure for the referendum. The referendum campaign featured a lot of xenophobia.
Once the referendum result appeared to legitimise xenophobia, it was given more leash. Xenophobic crimes increased.

Remember the "Enemies of the People".

Errr......I'm sorry, I see absolutely no evidence for that view. That's nothing more than assuming correlation is causation.

Correlation is evidence. It's not convincing in itself without supporting factors, but it doesn't have to be automatically excluded.

We have to face the core fact that reclaiming "sovereignty" is partly about controlling immigration.

Controlling immigration is partly about excluding the kinds of people we don't like. Some of us don't like Jews, Muslims, dark skinned people or foreigners generally. It doesn't need a carefully designed social science study to know this is true. Remember the turning point of the campaign?



When you exclude immigration from the Brexit "sovereignty" concept, there isn't much left apart from the kind of trade rules that the UK will have to abide by in some way whichever country we make a deal with.

Immigration is the core of Brexit, and Brexiteers ignore the fact that the EU offers as many opportunities for Brits to get out there and kick arse as it offers opportunities for the UK to staff up the NHS and floating agricultural labour force with enthusiastic, well-trained foreigners who make a big contribution to the economy.

Ignore me I can't read X axis labels.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

Correlation is evidence. It's not convincing in itself without supporting factors, but it doesn't have to be automatically excluded.

That doesn't equate to automatically including it either. If you look up the statistics, homophobic crimes went up by a similar sort of percentage over a similar timeframe. This does not mean it was caused by Brexit, or the sentiments behind it. Not unless we're moving into 'only bad people voted for Brexit and those bad people felt they could commit more crimes afterwards' territory.

We have to face the core fact that reclaiming "sovereignty" is partly about controlling immigration.

And anti-semitism at the moment is virtually never about immigration. You don't exactly see boatloads of blokes in prayer scarves from Israel disgorging at Dover.

Controlling immigration is partly about excluding the kinds of people we don't like. Some of us don't like Jews, Muslims, dark skinned people or foreigners generally.

I find it interesting that you intrinsically equate controlling immigration with racism. That's a massive leap of reasoning in and of itself.

 Ketara wrote:

 Whirlwind wrote:

The variations here aren't statistically significant at the three sigma level. The median of the data is 533.5 incidents per year with a standard deviation of about 239.9. That means the number of incidents needs to be above about 1250 to be 99% confident that any year on year variation is not just due to statistical effects (i.e. anything below this value has a high chance of just being a 'natural' year by year variation)

I'm sure that reassures all the people who are very clearly suffering considerably more abuse on average than they did two decades ago.

I mean, using that sort of statistical analysis, even the rise of anti-semitism in Nazi Germany wouldn't be 'statistically significant'. Which says a lot about its utility in scenarios such as this.

How are you so sure? How do you know whether people weren't just 'suffering in silence'. There could be many factors to the increase overall, which as far as a quick look doesn't seem to have been studied in much detail. There is never any excuse to abuse anyone regardless of who they are or their background. However looking at the figures implies that we can't actually say that in any one year, based on the figures you provided, indicates that the year on year variation has not just been a statistical variation (and the same would go if in any year reports dropped to 150, that would not mean there is a decline). There appears to have been a jump in the figures around 2003/04 but whether this is due to actual increases, or just better reporting is not something we can say here.


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 Whirlwind wrote:

Lord Ashcroft poll on why people voted Wrexit...

"•Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.” Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice “about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead.” Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that “when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it.”

33% of people voting Wrexit did so over immigration fears.

And? Most Jews were already here and not visibly Jewish. They integrate and make themselves inconspicuous. Very deliberately. They don't walk around wearing yarmulkhs (unless they're seriously frum).

It was more support to the theory that support for Brexit was partly xenophobic and that there was a significant fraction that viewed people from foreign countries with suspicion. No single incident can be related to Wrexit or not (in the same way weather on any one day does not tell you much about climate change). However it does show that 17% of the people that voted did at least do it on the grounds that they don't like other people moving to this country.

 Ketara wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:

Correlation is evidence. It's not convincing in itself without supporting factors, but it doesn't have to be automatically excluded.

That doesn't equate to automatically including it either. If you look up the statistics, homophobic crimes went up by a similar sort of percentage over a similar timeframe. This does not mean it was caused by Brexit, or the sentiments behind it.

We have to face the core fact that reclaiming "sovereignty" is partly about controlling immigration.

And anti-semitism at the moment is virtually never about immigration. You don't exactly see boatloads of blokes in prayer scarves from Israel disgorging at Dover.

Controlling immigration is partly about excluding the kinds of people we don't like. Some of us don't like Jews, Muslims, dark skinned people or foreigners generally.

I find it interesting that you intrinsically equate controlling immigration with racism. That's a massive leap of reasoning in and of itself.

...

Look at the poster and tell me it isn't connected to racial imagery.

To pull the sorts of factors that actually matter from the cst report:-

The longer term trend shows that CST has recorded a sustained high level of antisemitic incidents since July and August 2014. During
those two months, antisemitic reactions in the UK to that summer’s conflict in Israel and Gaza led to record levels of antisemitic incidents. 2014 saw a record annual total of 1,180 antisemitic incidents recorded by CST, 544 of which occurred in July and August of that year. This pattern of overseas conflicts leading to sharp increases in antisemitic incidents in the UK has been seen before, notably in 2009 and in 2006, and in those years the number of recorded incidents fell significantly once those conflicts were over.

Anti-semitism in the UK right now is not about Brexit, or immigration. If you honestly want to believe that? Go ahead, I'm done debating the point. There's sufficient studies out there saying otherwise. You can keep equating the two together if you want though.

Bear in mind that Brexit for a lot of people was not a rational decision, based on statistical analysis, it was emotional.

Are we back to the accusation that brexiteers are stupid and overly emotional again?

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Are we back to the accusation that brexiteers are stupid and overly emotional again?

No, no, no one's saying that. But we're certainly thinking it loudly

Warning: sneering ahead.

I invite people to go back and read pages 35-36 of this thread and make their own conclusions as to whether arguing in favour of internment camps for Muslims based on anger is overly emotional and stupid or not, while remembering that the views of a few don't have to be representative of the majority.

 feeder wrote:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Are we back to the accusation that brexiteers are stupid and overly emotional again?

No, no, no one's saying that. But we're certainly thinking it loudly

Well I can't "think out loud" because it'll be censored. Just remember that some remainers were predicting world war three breaking out soon after a vote for Brexit, so let's just say that we're as bad as each other.

Here are some cheery Brexit stories, people who were once proud to live here and now can't wait to leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/28/brexit-the-eu-nationals-exiting-britain-a-bit-of-me-is-dying-but-i-cant-stay

The Guardian has been acting as Juncker's PR spokesperson since June 24th 2016.

It's sad to see these people go, but people were leaving the UK for all sorts of bad reasons even when we were in the EU.

Unfortunately, it happens...

Yes, I get the political leaning of the Guardian Nothing here about Juncker, just the effect of Brexit on some individuals, on their lives.

And yes people come and go for all sorts of reasons, it just saddens me that people who chose to come to Britain and worked to build a life here, are now leaving because they no longer feel welcome.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
The Guardian has been acting as Juncker's PR spokesperson since June 24th 2016.

It's sad to see these people go, but people were leaving the UK for all sorts of bad reasons even when we were in the EU.

Unfortunately, it happens...

That's because they see the harm that Wrexit will cause both in the short and long term to the UK and would prefer the country doesn't decide that throwing itself of a cliff because it has decided gravity doesn't exist doesn't actually mean we won't end up as a messy puddle at the bottom.

They also like to use data to support their arguments rather than the Daily Fail and Sunday Distress that would prefer to use nonsense and hyperbole emotional arguments to try and sway people. The evidence does show that there has been an upturn in the number of people leaving both from the EU and the UK and anecdotally a fair number of these are educated and professional people (such as scientists and the like). At the same time the migrants that support this country are arriving in less numbers placing ever increasing pressure on the NHS, social services and so on. We haven't even started trying to limit immigration yet and the people that we need are leaving already...how well is it going to go when restrictions start to be placed on such people?

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
At any rate, anti-semitism is only a symptom of a much larger problem damaging this nation: the break down of law and order.

The first duty of any government is defence of the realm and then upholding the rule of law. The Tories have failed on this.

A few days ago, we learned that crime is on the increase across this great nation.

Today, on the BBC website, I learn that violence in prisons is on the up, and that prison guards were taken ill from drug fumes wafting through our prisons.

I also learned that prisoners were being let out early! Was that an honest mistake? Or prisoners tricking the authorities into early release?

I don't know anymore

Drug driving is on the up. Cybercrime. You name it. It's like Dark Age Britain.

Even if we catch and convict criminals, we can't even keep the fethers under lock and key any more!

You've heard me bang this drum many a time, but I ask my fellow dakka members this question:

what does UK stand for? United Kingdom or uncontrolled krimewave?

fething hell, you're like a broken record.

I think the crime wave you're obsessed with is at the back of a very long queue of things that most other people are worried about.