Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Emrab wrote:Now I might get cruxified for this comment but when it is a multi shot wep. Like a twin linked heavy bolter I just roll all the dice at once however i roll 2 diffrent colors of dice and declare which ones are ment be the originals and which ones are ment to be for the reroll.

With multishot weapons, you have to separate them by shot, so for a HB, you need to roll three separate sets of dice.

@Emrab: You'd need 3 colors of dice to do the Heavy Bother otherwise, how are you going to explain this:

red (original) = [1, 3, 6]
white (rerolls) = [2, 3, 5]

You have 2 hits in the original, and a 2, 3, 5 for the rerolls.

As your opponent, I think the re-rolled 1 was a 2. How do you show it wasn't?


OTOH, if you did this:
- red (1st shot) = [1, 5]
- white (2nd shot) = [3, 2]
- black (3rd shot) = [6, 3]
Then it's easy to see which hits and misses go together.

Webbe wrote:

2 dice method assuming 4+:
Hit l Hit (25%)
Hit l Miss (hit) (25%)
Miss l Hit (hit) (25%)
Miss l Miss (miss) (25%)

So 75% chance of hitting.

Rerolls due to Twin-Linked
Hit (50%)
Miss l Hit (25%, as there is a 50% chance you don't roll the second die at all)
Miss l Miss (25%)

So 75% chance of hitting.

Yeah. This is starting to look like the correct solution to me.

Emrab wrote:Now I might get cruxified for this comment but when it is a multi shot wep. Like a twin linked heavy bolter I just roll all the dice at once however i roll 2 diffrent colors of dice and declare which ones are ment be the originals and which ones are ment to be for the reroll.

That would still not work unless you had a different color for each specific shot (lets say 3 shots, 3 colors). You would need to have one color correspond to a single shot and its individual re-roll. From there, take out each color that both colors are 1's or 2's (if BS4).

Edit: John beat me and explained it better.

Well, as long as you have seperate dice for each shot, it souldn't be a problem.
Although, I'd just stick to the origional dice.

Illeix wrote:That's all fine and dandy, but I don't see how any of it is relivant to a Bs4 TL LasCannon.

3-6 = hit 66%
1-2 = miss 33%
reroll miss, 66% of 33% = rerolled hit 22%
hit + rerolled hit = 88%

the coin theory is great and all, but clearly doesn't work here as we are not talking about Bs3.

Mike and some others are showing that they don't understand the underlying theory about calculating probability, and are trying to intuitively figure it out (and making some grevious errors).

I used flipping a coin, because of the limited number of potential outcomes. 2 coin flips has four potential outcomes. 2 d6 rolls have 36 potential outcomes. It's a lot easier to map 4 than it is to map 36.

Until you understand the underlying theory, trying to explain why rolling 2d6 together has the same outcome as rolling 2d6 sequentially is pretty useless.

Somewhere out there, a math teacher is crying.

Axyl wrote:Edit: John beat me and explained it better.

My IG deep-strike Rapid-Firing Plasma teams, so I do this all the time. Pairing up the rapid-fire shots ensures that the Plasma overheats don't get spread around any more then they have to.

The coin flip is flawed because there are three outcomes, not four, as they are flipped at the same time.

I do believe I understand the mechanics of the theory, I was just trying to get it back on topic, i.e. a predators TL lascannon...

Illeix wrote:The coin flip is flawed because there are three outcomes, not four, as they are flipped at the same time.

I do believe I understand the mechanics of the theory, I was just trying to get it back on topic, i.e. a predators TL lascannon...

There are four, because the coins are different. Assume one is a dime and the other a quarter.

Q=heads D=tails
Q=heads D=heads
Q=tails D=heads
Q=tails D=tails

there's three, because only heads (hits) count.

heads + heads = hit
mix, either comb. = hit
tails + tails = miss

That's what I meant...

Illeix wrote:there's three, because only heads (hits) count.

heads + heads = hit
mix, either comb. = hit
tails + tails = miss

That's what I meant...

By that reasoning, there's actually only two. Because whether or not you miss on one and hit with the other, or hit on both, you still score a hit.

Quite true. In the end, you either hit, or you don't.
But we were also contemplating the means of getting there.

Ahh, dare I say..

Follow the RAW roll to hit, if you miss, re-roll. I understand the probability is the same whether you roll 1 or 2. What I also understand is the possibility of a player fudging on the rolls. "Oh..I meant the red one was the re-roll...(wink wink)"

Get my point.

Illeix wrote:Quite true. In the end, you either hit, or you don't.
But we were also contemplating the means of getting there.

In which case, there are four out comes.

Rymafyr wrote:Ahh, dare I say..

Follow the RAW roll to hit, if you miss, re-roll. I understand the probability is the same whether you roll 1 or 2. What I also understand is the possibility of a player fudging on the rolls. "Oh..I meant the red one was the re-roll...(wink wink)"

Get my point.

In the case of a single shot there is no need to differentiate the dice.

Rymafyr wrote:Ahh, dare I say..

Follow the RAW roll to hit, if you miss, re-roll. I understand the probability is the same whether you roll 1 or 2. What I also understand is the possibility of a player fudging on the rolls. "Oh..I meant the red one was the re-roll...(wink wink)"

Get my point.

Quite true, I think at this point its time to stop using nerd logic and revert to what makes most sense. Just re-roll your missed shots.

Wow, this is making my head spin.

For a single shot weapon, it's not cheating to throw two dice and pick the hit. You would be doing that anyways?

Throwing two dice together doesn't influence probability in any meaningful ways, and you're not "more" likely to score a hit with the "other" die, just because one misses.

Now with multiple shots, that's cheating and very flagrant at that. How do you tell when both sets of twin-link hit or miss? You would generate illegal numbers.

whocares wrote:

Illeix wrote:Quite true. In the end, you either hit, or you don't.
But we were also contemplating the means of getting there.

In which case, there are four out comes.

No, just three, go away...

Illeix wrote:

whocares wrote:

Illeix wrote:Quite true. In the end, you either hit, or you don't.
But we were also contemplating the means of getting there.

In which case, there are four out comes.

No, just three, go away...

Please explain to me why rolling a hit on both dice is somehow different than rolling a hit on one and a miss on the other.

I'll tell you why: it is simply one combination that scores a hit. Just like rolling one hit and one miss. And since you have two dice, which one was the hit and which one was the miss will make two separate combinations, even though they had the same result. Just like the two hits is a separate combination than the one hit and one miss even though it has the same result.

Understand?

Hehe, there are definitely four outcomes.

HIT, MISS
HIT, HIT
MISS, HIT
MISS, MISS

There is a distinction between H,M and M,H because there are two components in play. This allows for all possible outcomes.

whocares - I don't think he gets it.

It also looks skewed towards hitting because......it is! Twinlinking BS4 or even BS3 gives you better than 50% odds to hit.

@ Mike Leon: It's smart to watch out for this trick, especially if you're at a tournament and focused the game instead of the rolls. Good find!

groz wrote:@ Mike Leon: It's smart to watch out for this trick, especially if you're at a tournament and focused the game instead of the rolls. Good find!

what trick? For a single shot TL weapon, rolling both dice at the same time gives you statistically the same chance to hit as rolling 1 die, then rolling a second die if you miss with the first one. It should be blatantly obvious that this does not translate to multi-shot weapons (unless a specific pair of dice is used to represent each shot).

Look, if you roll then reroll it is one of the following:
hit
miss, reroll, hit
or miss, reroll, miss

or simultaniously:
hit + hit = hit
mixed (as they are rolled/flipped at one time, it's impossible to distinguish which came first) still a hit
miss + miss = miss

You simply cannot rationally determine if the hit came first or second.

Illeix wrote:Look, if you roll then reroll it is one of the following:
hit
miss, reroll, hit
or miss, reroll, miss

or simultaniously:
hit + hit = hit
mixed (as they are rolled/flipped at one time, it's impossible to distinguish which came first) still a hit
miss + miss = miss

You simply cannot rationally determine if the hit came first or second.

To which post is this a response to?

ok yeah i see where that gets messed up thanks for pointing that out guys I guess my friends and I will have to change that.

@marvin
To those whom still believe that there are four outcomes, when logically, there is only three regardless of how you roll for a twin linked weapon.

But I am tired of this, so those of whom still disagree with my reasoning, I think I have made my point, so I leave it to you what to do with it.

Illeix wrote:Look, if you roll then reroll it is one of the following:
hit
miss, reroll, hit
or miss, reroll, miss

or simultaniously:
hit + hit = hit
mixed (as they are rolled/flipped at one time, it's impossible to distinguish which came first) still a hit
miss + miss = miss

You simply cannot rationally determine if the hit came first or second.

does that actually matter? Assuming its one TL single shot weapon firing, the probability of hitting is the same either way, so I don't understand why it would matter if you knew which one was the hit. If thre is an outside factor that will influence one of the dice being rolled, then clearly they should be rolled seperately.

If you roll for a single shot then the probability is still the same wether you roll one dice at a time or both at once, it's still a 75% probability on a 4+.
However, if there are multiple shots, you need to differentiate the dice for each shot or you will have net more hits. In the 25% scenario that 2 dice hit, how do you know if it was one weapon hitting or two separate weapons?
In the example of the TL-HB, you have 3 shots re-rolled. If you roll all 6 at once, you average 3 hits. If you roll them one at a time, you average 2.25 (2 hits) hits.
So, to me, not differentiating which dice go with which shot is giving the player an unfair advantage and that is the essense of cheating.

Caffran9 wrote:

groz wrote:@ Mike Leon: It's smart to watch out for this trick, especially if you're at a tournament and focused the game instead of the rolls. Good find!

what trick? For a single shot TL weapon, rolling both dice at the same time gives you statistically the same chance to hit as rolling 1 die, then rolling a second die if you miss with the first one. It should be blatantly obvious that this does not translate to multi-shot weapons (unless a specific pair of dice is used to represent each shot).

To clarify my original post: @ Mike Leon: It's smart to watch out for the trick of players rolling a pile of identical dice at once for multiple twin-linked weapons.

@ Caffran9: If understanding the difference were as easy as you say, why is there so much discussion in this thread? It's a subtle mathematical distinction that not every player in the broad scope of 40k gamers would understand, especially in the middle of a tournament.