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And

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500 points and just started.

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Alerian wrote:
Orkish wrote:
Firstly, (1/6)^3 IS NOT 1/18, but 1/216.


Huh?

THEY were talking about (1/6)3 ...you know... 1/6 "times" 3.

Do you even read? Do you understand what is (1/6)^3, which was what he typed?

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By the way,
Orkish wrote:Go study people. Probability do count in 40k gaming.

is rubbish english. Haven't you gone to school? It has to be "does". Go study, man. English does count in 40K gaming.

Well, firstly, it was meant to be 'probabilities', so I ll stick to 'do'.
Secondly, yes, you are also excusable for being dumb .

Ok, I am positive you two dont go to school

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/08/31 04:20:36


 
   
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I always use flamers as my anti-infantry special weapons, so when it comes down to the others, I'm using them for anti-tank. So I always go with melta, because it is better strenghth, better AP for vehicle damage rolls, and (obviously) has melta.

Alas, poor Yorick.


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Zid wrote:And I'm a huge fan of Plasma Cannons Str 7, ap 2 blasts are sexy


4 plasma cannons dev.s vs Plague marines. 15+ Dead PM in 1 turn.

As for melta or plasma,I play SM it would usually be tac. squads were specialized by the weapons (multi-melta, melta= Anti-tank).

Deep-striking meltas, 'cause their assault weapons sounds good, getting shots in the rear armour. CSM Terminators with combi-plasma sounds fun though.


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Does anyone have the scale math for melta and plasma beyond the 6 inch range?

I mean its two STR7 vs 1 STR 8.

I have been thinking of making a Command Squad w/ 4 Plasmas and a Razorback for fun.


Don't forget the AP1 on the melta. That is a big part of why meltas are better anti-tank, even with less shots.

Between 6" and 12", BS4 (4 gun results are in parantheses, negligible chance of multiple damage results causing destruction is ignored for ease of calculation)

AV11
A Plasma Gun has a 14.3% chance of destroying (46%)
A Melta Gun has an 18.5% chance of destroying (56%)

AV12
A Plasma Gun has a 7.3% chance of destroying (26%)
A Melta Gun has a 13.0% chance of destroying (43%)

12"-24" (so no melta)
AV11
A Plasma Gun has a 7.4% chance of destroying (26%)

AV12
A Plasma Gun has a 3.7% chance of destroying (14%)

Also note the plasma gun will keep you from assaulting the contents unless you are relentless. To me that is a big part of the equation if you are running marines, or having to get out of your transport to shoot stuff.

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Well, It's safer. Plus, if you play ridiculously(sp?) broken marines, like me, you can get them Twin-Linked, Hooray! Not to mention if you want to take both take a combi-plasma for your sarge, sure you only get to shots from him but, when you take 3 or 4 Tactical Squads then you have a ton of shots.

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I use plasma and melta. They are different tools and have different functions. In my bike army, I field both.

Plasma is designed to kill MEQ and to deliver wounds to tough targets like DPs and Terminators.
The longer range means you can use them while staying at a safe distance, and double tapping them can provide very satisfactory results.
The double tapping really is what gives plasma the edge when dealing with single targets.

Melta works wonders when taking down armor and IC's -- though it's use at killing IC's occurs less frequently.
Its requirement to be at close range necessitates a delivery mechanism -- a bike, a rhino, etc.
Its ability to slag AV14 makes it one of the best tools in your aresonal for that purpose.

Using the melta as a tool to kill MEQ is like using a ratchet to hammer a nail. It's possible, but there are better tools for the job.


   
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Vehicles got more durable, making lascannons worse. Transports got more durable, making short range weapons better.

Cover saves are more abundanent, making plasma guns less effective. Plasma guns have also gone up in cost, and Nidzilla is far less common.

More targets plus less competition for the same jobs = more melta guns.

Less effective plus costlier plus finally facing realistic competition for the slot = fewer plasma.

   
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I use them because everyone else is using them.
   
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depends on the situ. cuz a plas will rip right through horde armies and decent range melta anti tank short ranged so really the have ups and downs but i field both

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I still love my plasma, so there!

I still see Tyranid MC's and Power armored squads all the time, and melta doesn't kill fast enough. For my drive-by combat squads, I go with Plasmagun/Combi-Plasma. They usually only get one chance at it anyway, and they can't charge after disembarking from a moving vehicle, so I lob 4 plasma rounds and 6 bolter rounds into the target, and watch it evaporate. I lose dudes to plasma all the time, but it's still worth it. And a command squad with 4 plasmaguns in a Razorback is just beautiful. I finally got a chance to try it out, too. Sicarious, 4 PG's and Apothecary, in a Razorback with LF/TL-Plasmagun. I rolled up 6" to 11" range on a Carnifex, disembarked, and let out 11 plasma rounds. No wounds taken thanks to FNP, 6 wounds on the Carni to drop it.

Melta spam woulda left me trying to face that MC with a powersword and a smile on my face.

I do mix melta in, I use them about 2:1 with plasma, or in the places it makes more sense for my army, like Bike squads.

Plasma saved me from Dark Eldar, too. Grotesques need Str 6+ to touch them I guess, so Bolters were useless. Plasma removed them like butter, though, and then turned on those rediculous paper airplanes they fly in (Raiders) and cut through those just as well!

Meltas in my army go after anything AV13+, Plasmas after AV 11 and down. AV12 is a matter of what looks best at the time.



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The chance of a model surviving three Gets Hot! rolls, assuming no armor save, is 1-((5/6)^3) (a bit less than 1/2).

Assuming 3+, for MEQ, it's 1-((17/18)^3), which is much higher.
   
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The chance of a my Command squad loosing a model to Get's Hot?

Let's see 1/6 of the shots will GH, of those, 1/3 will not be saved by armor, and of the 1/3 unsaved, 1/2 will not be saved by FNP.

So, per shot, a Command Marine has a 2.77% chance of dying. The squad puts out 8 shots like this per turn, so you end up with a total 22.16% chance that you will lose one model in a turn of firing (2.77 x 8).

Sicarious is better off, with a 2+ armor save, so 1/6 GH, 1/6 failed save, 1/2 failed FNP for a total of 1.388% chance to take an unsaved GH wound.

The plasmagun on the Razorback doesn't suffer Gets Hot, being a vehicle, so 0% on 2 shots.

All told, in exchange for these 11 Str 7 Ap 2 shots, I have a total 23.54% chance of taking a single unsaved wound per turn.

Dangerous, but I like it. It's still within reasonable odds to never loose a single model during a game.



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Melta spam woulda left me trying to face that MC with a powersword and a smile on my face.

I dunno, melta isn't that much worse against an MC due to wound roll.

Plasma
2/3 hit x 2/3 wound = 4/9 x 8 shots = 32/9 (3.555)
Melta
2/3 hit x 5/6 wound = 5/9 x 4 shots = 20/9 (2.222)

Difference of 1 and a third wounds. For what you lose out on in anti-tank or insta-kill; to what you risk from overheat and to what you spend in extra points -- I am not seeing a big advantage. Especially if the squad is rolling with Sic and a las/plas razorback since those two would bring the melta squad up to 5 wounds on average.

I can see a place for plasma -- if only for the greater range. But if all you are doing is jumping out and killing biggies, I'd use melta. Our experinces will vary though I guess.

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GeneralRetreat wrote:The chance of a my Command squad loosing a model to Get's Hot?

Let's see 1/6 of the shots will GH, of those, 1/3 will not be saved by armor, and of the 1/3 unsaved, 1/2 will not be saved by FNP.

So, per shot, a Command Marine has a 2.77% chance of dying. The squad puts out 8 shots like this per turn, so you end up with a total 22.16% chance that you will lose one model in a turn of firing (2.77 x 8).

Sicarious is better off, with a 2+ armor save, so 1/6 GH, 1/6 failed save, 1/2 failed FNP for a total of 1.388% chance to take an unsaved GH wound.

The plasmagun on the Razorback doesn't suffer Gets Hot, being a vehicle, so 0% on 2 shots.

All told, in exchange for these 11 Str 7 Ap 2 shots, I have a total 23.54% chance of taking a single unsaved wound per turn.

Dangerous, but I like it. It's still within reasonable odds to never loose a single model during a game.


Your plasma math is wrong. You expect to lose 22.16% (assuming the multiplication is right) of a single marine each time you fire (over infinitely many trials), but the probability of losing exactly one marine is lower than that, and there's a chance you'll take as many as 8 unsaved, not FNP'ed wounds.
   
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I dunno killing biggies like nid biggies?

Id never use a isngle melta gainst nids.

Wound on 2+ instead of 3+ but a single shot instead of 2. 5/9 instead of 8/9 wounds. Sure you have gets hot, but since nids have no AV its no use for melta.

Anything else, melta has to be taken kinda....

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500 points and just started.

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yea it depends on situation but AM can take 2 meltaguns i think so it really depends

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winterman wrote:I dunno, melta isn't that much worse against an MC due to wound roll.

Respectfully, your math shows the plasma as being 60% more effective than melta vs. monstrous creatures. (20/9 vs. 32/9)

In the buisness world, a 60% performance increase between product A vs. product B would be considered a no brainer.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2009/09/02 00:44:56


 
   
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ajfirecracker wrote:
GeneralRetreat wrote:The chance of a my Command squad loosing a model to Get's Hot?

Let's see 1/6 of the shots will GH, of those, 1/3 will not be saved by armor, and of the 1/3 unsaved, 1/2 will not be saved by FNP.

So, per shot, a Command Marine has a 2.77% chance of dying. The squad puts out 8 shots like this per turn, so you end up with a total 22.16% chance that you will lose one model in a turn of firing (2.77 x 8).

Sicarious is better off, with a 2+ armor save, so 1/6 GH, 1/6 failed save, 1/2 failed FNP for a total of 1.388% chance to take an unsaved GH wound.

The plasmagun on the Razorback doesn't suffer Gets Hot, being a vehicle, so 0% on 2 shots.

All told, in exchange for these 11 Str 7 Ap 2 shots, I have a total 23.54% chance of taking a single unsaved wound per turn.

Dangerous, but I like it. It's still within reasonable odds to never loose a single model during a game.


Your plasma math is wrong. You expect to lose 22.16% (assuming the multiplication is right) of a single marine each time you fire (over infinitely many trials), but the probability of losing exactly one marine is lower than that, and there's a chance you'll take as many as 8 unsaved, not FNP'ed wounds.


Respecfully, Sir, my math is absolutely correct. Your interpretation is wrong. What I have shown here is thus:

FOR EACH ROUND OF FIRING THIS UNIT PERFORMS, THERE IS A 23.52% CHANCE OF TAKING A SINGLE UNSAVED WOUND FROM GETS HOT.

Nothing more, nothing less. Above, I broke down the probability of it being a Command Marine vs Sicarious himself taking the wound. Overall, what I have produced is an accurate mathematical model to show the complete chance of taking an unsaved wound. If that wound is to a Command Marine, then the result would be a lost model. If you're going to assert that I am wrong again, I suggest you demonstrate some math examples to illustrate.

@ person person : Thank ya

@ winterman : labmouse42 has armbarred the correct. Plasma IS more efficient against high toughness MC's (up to T9 actually) due to the volume of fire. The range superiority can also be a helping factor, but of course that negates the rate of fire difference. A clearly demonstratable 60% increase in effectiveness falls into the no-brainer category. In business, a 10% improvement is often considered groundbreaking.



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@ winterman : labmouse42 has armbarred the correct. Plasma IS more efficient against high toughness MC's (up to T9 actually) due to the volume of fire. The range superiority can also be a helping factor, but of course that negates the rate of fire difference. A clearly demonstratable 60% increase in effectiveness falls into the no-brainer category. In business, a 10% improvement is often considered groundbreaking.

So yeah, great, a 60% increase in effectiveness against MCs. I never said the melta was more or as effective. But if all you need is that lower effectiveness to get the job done and in the process gain 100% effectiveness in other key areas? Maybe even more pertinent areas (eg anti-mech, assault after shoot ability)? And also without the same level of risk (no overheat)? And saving resources that could go elsewhere since you aren't leveraging one of the advantages (20 point savings since the greater range is not really being used)?

I hope more business analogies helps get my point across. And to clear things up, by 'biggies' I did not mean exclusively MCs. Melta is notably better against vehicles of all flavors. And I dunno about you but I see more units in transports and tanks in general then MCs. But truthfully I don't know the rest of the list at hand, so perhaps the plasma is a better fit (I doubt it but certainly possible). As always, your mileage may vary.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/09/02 20:02:06


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winterman wrote: Melta is notably better against vehicles of all flavors. And I dunno about you but I see more units in transports and tanks in general then MCs.

You are correct.
Meltas and plasma fill different roles. Plasma is excellent at hurting MCs and MEQs, where Melta is great AT and some Anti-IC

The question should not be "melta or plasma" but instead "What is your ratio of melta to plasma?"
I field 1 squad of plasma to 2 squads of melta, as I see much more armor on the board today.
   
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@ winterman : And conversely, Melta is useless against an Avatar of Khaine at any range.

The range difference is not immaterial here. Melta is 12" 1 shot, where as Plasma is 12" 2 shots, and 24" 1 shot.

@ Risk Factor -- if you're scared of risk, this isn't the right game for you... the fact is the Apothecary makes the risk of Plasma well worth it. Plasma is often worth it alone for it's specific role. On a unit with FNP, it's miles ahead of the competition.

winterman wrote:
I dunno, melta isn't that much worse against an MC due to wound roll.


This is the comment I was responding to -- In the context of Tyranid Monsterous Creatures, you could be looking at 6 wounds. 4 Meltas plus a Plasma Pistol, plus a TL-PG plus a Bolt Pistol just doesn't have a great chance at actually dealing 6 wounds, even with a 1 better roll to wound (2+ vs 3+). It certainly doesn't have the same chance of 4 PG's, 1 PP, 1 TL-PG, and a bolt pistol.

11 Plasma shots @ Str 7 AP 2 Range 12" vs Toughness 6
----------------------------
8 x Hit on 3's, Wound on 3's, Armor Ignored
1 x Hit on 2's, Wound on 3's, Armor Ignored
2 x Hit on 3 with re-roll, Wound on 3's, Armor Ignored
---------------
8 x ~44% chance to wound
1 x ~55% chance to wound
2 x ~59% chance to wound (proof that TL BS4 is better than BS5)

So,
The average turn of shooting will net 5-6 wounds on a Toughness 6 creature. You have about a 24% chance of loosing a guy in the process. However, I find that I usually only get one turn to shoot at Carnifii. I want that one turn to count. Specifically, I want to remove that model in a single turn. Only having to dedicate one small battlegroup to do that ON AVERAGE, not even on a great roll, is priceless in my opinion.

Melta has it's place, no debate there. In my armies, it's place is 1:2 Meltalasma. I do disagree with the ZOMG MELTA RAWKS attitude lately. I think it only really becomes a viable every-use weapon when Vulkan is present and making them all twin-linked. I'm not fond of Vulkan either, but I can understand the reaction to his abilities.



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The cost and damage benefits have already been discussed at length.
My main reason for taking melta guns... they're Assault weapons.
I can still charge the unit I just shot, or charge the unit from the transport I just cracked open. Denying my opponent the charge bonus.
   
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labmouse42 wrote:The question should not be "melta or plasma" but instead "What is your ratio of melta to plasma?"
I field 1 squad of plasma to 2 squads of melta, as I see much more armor on the board today.


I wanted to just quote every one of labmouse's replies and just say "this" but I think I'd like to add my thoughts too.

All the human special weapons (lets leave out sniper rifle and grenade launcher for this) are unarguably better at something than another. None of the guns can kill 5+ armor units better than the flamer. None of the guns come close to killing armor better than the meltagun (although from 7" to 12" the plasma gun nearly equals the meltagun versus armor 10, with ap1 factored in) and nothing kills 3+ armored troops and monstrous creatures better than the plasma gun.

Every refutation of that fact reaches for either a metagame or game situation reason. "plasma got worse because of cover" There are MANY situations in my weekly gaming where I'm shooting into units that are not vehicles that are not in cover. Space marine bikes and monstrous creatures are constantly living outside of cover saves. "There are just too many tanks to not take melta" It is a lot more difficult to see that you have lost a game because you didn't have enough anti-infantry than if you just couldn't kill a land raider. Certainly by february, people will be clamoring for plasma. All of the forums and blogs will be talking about how wise players take plasma in addition to their melta. That's because their will be tons of MCs flooding the metagame.

Additional mobility helps each of the weapons equally, mobile meltas can get into their sweet spot much easier, mobile plasmas can shoot their rapid fire much easier and mobile flamers can cover more models with the template.

To answer with my own playing, I have been taking more plasma as people's lists begin to morph and I face more of a variety of army types. Nids are going to shake things up pretty substantially, and the potential for space wolves to have fieldable non-storm shield terminators also bodes well for plasma.

You really have to look at what your army composition is. As a guard player, I take a plasma executioner, which does a lot to cover my needs for plasma guns, I also take two bastion breacher dueces, which covers a lot of my anti-tank needs, I take vendettas which covers my anti-MC and anti-transport needs reasonably well, and i have a 3 lascannon blob to also shore up my anti-transport needs. I usually equip my veterans with special weapons that adapt more to the metagame. Sicne the rest of the support is balanced. If i took plasma guns on all of them, then I'd likely drop the executioner for another medusa. If I ran them all with meltaguns, then those medusas could change into something more appropriate to my needs.

Space marines are almost as flexible. Look at your elites/support/attack. Are you running 3 MM speeders and 3 MM dreads? Then i think its overboard at this point add meltaguns to tac squads or bikers. Are you running typhoons and predators? Then you may have trouble with heavy tanks.

The costs of each gun (for 5th edition codecies) are spot on. 5 points for the 8" range gun, 10 points for the 6/12" range gun, 15 points for the 12/24" gun. This ensures that the longer range your army is, the less liekly you'll table the person before they have a chance to move their models. If they each have equal utility. They each are the stars of one show, then the longest range gun should cost the most, because it has a chance to excel earlier in the game.

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it depends what you want them for i find plasma better for infantry
meltas better for vehicles
   
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@General I'm not gonna go tit for tat, as you are retreading territory I am long past caring about and using bad info to boot (max wounds for a single TMC model is 5 -- 10 if its tyrant with 3x guard).

Maybe I am biased as a Salamander player (and by that I mean the army background and not neccesarily Vulkan). Suffice to say I am not personally so concerned about MCs such that I feel a need to pack plasma at all over using a combination of melta and flamers which I can charge after using and also a fair amount of counter assault to boot. For now...

That's because their will be tons of MCs flooding the metagame.

As a tyranid player, I hope you are right Shep. And excellent post all around. My POV is not as holistic, good to take an even bigger picture veiw of things.

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