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Albatross wrote:The militarisation of space. Mark my words. Once a nation (most likely the US or China) gains space-borne weapons capabilities we're all dead. They'll be able to strike anywhere in the world with impunity. Worryingly, the US and Israel have refused to sign any treaties banning this future technological endeavour.

Its no better or worse than nukes on subs. Yes space weapons can strike anywhere, but they can not do so with impunity. If the US and China both develop space weapons and SSBNs (China is still way behind there) then the 2nd strike ability of both nations will ensure MAD. Being able to drop kinetic attacks from space won't stop an already doomed advisary from returning the favor + launching nukes from subs.

schadenfreude wrote:

Albatross wrote:The militarisation of space. Mark my words. Once a nation (most likely the US or China) gains space-borne weapons capabilities we're all dead. They'll be able to strike anywhere in the world with impunity. Worryingly, the US and Israel have refused to sign any treaties banning this future technological endeavour.

Its no better or worse than nukes on subs. Yes space weapons can strike anywhere, but they can not do so with impunity. If the US and China both develop space weapons and SSBNs (China is still way behind there) then the 2nd strike ability of both nations will ensure MAD. Being able to drop kinetic attacks from space won't stop an already doomed advisary from returning the favor + launching nukes from subs.

It does, however, give you ability to launch interceptors without them having to fly over any countries that could possibly intercept your interceptor; due to the height the nuke will reach on launch, a space interception will likely be a lot more precise and feasible than having to catch the nuke from the ground as it descends.

There's also the possiblity that enemy subs will have been located from space (in an age of space-bound weaponry, the ability to find submersibles from space doesn't seem too ridiculous) and can targeted too. Dominating space around the Earth pretty much puts you in a position of huge power.

We'll probably just end up making the planet uninhabitable for ourselves, some way or another.

Avatar 720 wrote:

schadenfreude wrote:

Albatross wrote:The militarisation of space. Mark my words. Once a nation (most likely the US or China) gains space-borne weapons capabilities we're all dead. They'll be able to strike anywhere in the world with impunity. Worryingly, the US and Israel have refused to sign any treaties banning this future technological endeavour.

Its no better or worse than nukes on subs. Yes space weapons can strike anywhere, but they can not do so with impunity. If the US and China both develop space weapons and SSBNs (China is still way behind there) then the 2nd strike ability of both nations will ensure MAD. Being able to drop kinetic attacks from space won't stop an already doomed advisary from returning the favor + launching nukes from subs.

It does, however, give you ability to launch interceptors without them having to fly over any countries that could possibly intercept your interceptor; due to the height the nuke will reach on launch, a space interception will likely be a lot more precise and feasible than having to catch the nuke from the ground as it descends.

There's also the possiblity that enemy subs will have been located from space (in an age of space-bound weaponry, the ability to find submersibles from space doesn't seem too ridiculous) and can targeted too. Dominating space around the Earth pretty much puts you in a position of huge power.

Spaced based wmds such as "the rods of god" are totally different than space based abm technology. ABM technology is only viable against a rogue state such as iran, pakistan, or north korea. ABM is worthless against a superpower. If ABM is 95% effective and another superpower launched 30,000 nuclear warheads how many warheads get past the ABM? There are good reasons why Reagan gave up on ABM tech, the first and formost is that ABM technology is easily countered by the other side building a lot more nukes causing runaway nuclear proliferation.


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Ps the idea of finding subs from space is theoretically possible, but would be a practicle failure. Looking for a degaussed sub 600+ feet underwater from space with a search area consisting of 75% of the planet (including under the artic ice caps) is like looking for a wood needle hidden somewhere in a warehouse full of haystacks.

Well, the overarching point is that it's incredibly unlikely that two powers will spontaneously achieve these capabilities simultaneously. The first to master it will be in a position of incredible power, and it's hard not to see that leading to a major arms race, and concurrently, a potential global conflict.

Albatross wrote:Well, the overarching point is that it's incredibly unlikely that two powers will spontaneously achieve these capabilities simultaneously. The first to master it will be in a position of incredible power, and it's hard not to see that leading to a major arms race, and concurrently, a potential global conflict.

I still think this will lead to Mad Max style Apocalypse. Here's how.

1. Group A gets a minor accomplishment in militarizing space, say a "Weather Satellite" that is actually armed with a single Nuclear Missile.

2. Group B fears Group A will advance to the point where they have a billion "Weather Satellites" each with dozens of missiles and Anti Laser Missiles (look it up, its the newest Anti Missile weapon).

3. Group B gets a minor accomplishment in militarizing space.

4. Group A doesn't want to fall behind, keeps building up, begins to run out of resources.

5. Group B follows suit.

6. In the end space is only a little militarized and leather surplusses are rampant.

7. Both groups, realizing they can't improve their technology anymore, but assuming the enemy can, attack out of paranoia.

8. This happens.

Sarah Palin
Cthulhu
Nukes
Zombies
Asteroid
Tyranid Hivefleet
Exterminatus
God Teabags Earth

Massive solar flares roast everything. Pass the barbeque sauce.

I've always been a fan of the "grey goo" theory.

Nuclear/resource wars require some "evil actors" to start things in motion.

Asteroids and other space-borne disasters are incredibly unlikely.

Grey goo just requires some idiot to miss a line of code.

1. Croatoa virus (Zombies? Hah! these guys are (sort of) demons!)
2. Virus
3. terrorist creates mass destruction, destroy's nearly everything
4. Global warming apparently was underestimated and we would all get flooded
5. space virus/conquerors
6. mutants
7.War, war, and moar war
8. Famine
9. Antichrist/rapture
10. Oil crisis causes the world to go into anarchy (and Robbie, if you read this, I would enjoy this outcome )
Over 9000!. WBC was right

From most likely to least likely

purplefood wrote:Dragon
Zombie
Clock
Robot
In that order from closest to furthest.

Clock apocalypse?

I hate peoples obsession with zombies.

The most likely apocalypse I see is complete society breakdown.

What with the current middle east uprisings, the likely collapse of the euro currency coupled with the crap-finally-hit-the-fan global recession allowing more extreme parties to get a foothold and start indoctrinating the uneducated masses with their tissue-thin justification of how Ahmed at the end of the road is the reason the country is screwed. That and the fact that the government seemed to be pretty much hated by everyone except the multi-millionaire donors that fund them right now. In the next few years I see riots, chaos and mayhem on the streets, which will inevitably result in some form of totalitarian government and marshall law...

We will die due to critical resource shortages combined with unrelenting greed.

While only the catalyst to the wars it causes the shortages themselves not the weapons will kill us. Eventually we will rape the biosphere long before we learn to share or conserve.

a full out nuclear war !

I find the nuclear option rather unlikely to wipe us out because the countries that have them know that they would be causing suicide if they used them because of the M.A.D (Mutually assured destruction) policy that said countries have with one another. Having said that, It's possible that a rogue state or coup could achieve much the same thing but even this, in my opinion would be very unlikely to trigger a 'Total War' scenario. If anything, I think that two or more countries that are traditionally enemies would cooperate in crushing any upstart self imposed tyrant (particularly if he has got his sticky hands on a nuclear button), either by assassination or, if the nuclear threat requires expediency then a tactical nuclear strike.

That's the worse scenario that I think/hope is likely, at least in our lifetime anyway.

Wars over resources are the biggest threat to us, IMO, and will remain so for at least the next century. And what's more, I think it will get considerably worse before it gets better as hardline religious leaders seize on peoples fears and fan the flames with fiery rhetoric. We ain't seen nothing yet!

Also Capitalism is a force that is very VERY damaging to our way of life as the richer get richer and the poorer get poorer. This can only continue for a finte length of time before civilisation collapses in on itself and leave us with a dystopia that could be called apocolyptic by anyone's standards.

And then of course we could always end up getting vapourised by a Gamma Ray Burster. Not much we could do if that happened. If you don't know what one is then google it coz it'd take to much time to explain here. You think this unlikely hmm? There's a GRB candidate not too far from our planet (well within kill range) and we are staring right down the barrel as it were. These things are so incredibly powerful that we can detect them even from other galaxies and even some that have traveled so far that they originate from the early universe! And the one I'm talking about is just a few thousand light years away. It's a bit like sitting ten feet away from .50 calibre barret sniper rifle and wondering if you are out of its range.
Not if but when it goes off and if it hits us bang on then we are dead but if it misses us by 40 degrees (which is what some scientist think) then we will be spared the brute force of a direct hit but we will still suffer considerable damage to our atmosphere. Some scientists believe the we have been hit by one before during the single largest extinction in our history 250 million years age known as The Great Dying wiped out around 90% of the earths biomass and vertebrates took 30 million years to recover!

Something to think about anyway. I'm glad it's come up here because whenever I bring this up in conversation I find it tens to kill the mood before people label me a "right depressing sod".

I believe pandemic virus is the most likely, as in, could suddenly mutate at any stage on any given day and wipe most of humanity from the face of the earth in a couple of months.

We are fairly long overdue this actually.

MeanGreenStompa wrote:I believe pandemic virus is the most likely, as in, could suddenly mutate at any stage on any given day and wipe most of humanity from the face of the earth in a couple of months.

We are fairly long overdue this actually.

I also find this unlikely because viruses have to stay alive as well and a virus that spreads as easily as the common cold but had a 100% mortality rate would soon find itself with nowhere to prosper. So unless the virus was man made ( a distinct possibility I admit) then it would appear to come and go as it rotated around countries and continents. To a point, a virus has to live 'with' us, Wiping us out wouldn't be doing itself any favours.

The Apocalyptical virus would be one that was airborne, have a mortality rate of around 99% and an incubation period of around 3 months so that by the time the first people had contracted it it would have gone worldwide and to just about every country before people started dropping like flies. But, like I said, I can't see a 'natural' virus being this potent.

On the other hand, would there really be someone out there that would be sick enough to create this in a lab?

That would never happen...would it?

Comet passes between the Sun and Earth. The tail of the comet blasts us with all kinds of cosmic schtuff. Mutations to DNA ensue as does hilarity.

Khornholio wrote:Comet passes between the Sun and Earth. The tail of the comet blasts us with all kinds of cosmic schtuff. Mutations to DNA ensue as does hilarity.

No that just creates people with superpowers

Well, it probably won't be an asteroid, since we can see when they are coming many years before they hit. The odds are painfully low to begin with. Nuclear Warfare is much more plausible, but once again, sane countries know better than to do this, so what exactly it would take to drive us into nuclear annihilation, I don't know. It will probably be either a climate change issue, like a massive flood, or an economic crisis. Either way, I think humans can survive.

Yeah, many groups, such as the SpaceGuard Center, are watching NEO's (Near Earth Objects) and can quite accurtaly predict an impact decades before it happens.
An imense natural disaster is certainley possible, and would cause extream damage, but anything short of an erupting super volcano wouldn't have the power to kill off humanity. Even a super volcano would struggle.
Nuclear war is also possible, but it wouldn't happen without a bit of warning, ie diplomatic tension or something.
Zombie Apocalypse? Seriousley...

The Horus Heresy all over again...

RaptorsTallon wrote:Yeah, many groups, such as the SpaceGuard Center, are watching NEO's (Near Earth Objects) and can quite accurtaly predict an impact decades before it happens.
An imense natural disaster is certainley possible, and would cause extream damage, but anything short of an erupting super volcano wouldn't have the power to kill off humanity. Even a super volcano would struggle.
Nuclear war is also possible, but it wouldn't happen without a bit of warning, ie diplomatic tension or something.
Zombie Apocalypse? Seriousley...

Yellowstone would suck if it erupted, but I think an asteroid impact could FOR CERTAIN kill off humanity, depending on the size. Global Pandemic could come close too, but some people would survive. Someone needs to start a thread about how likely it is that humans could leave earth and colonize another planet (like Mars) if we needed too.

800th post woot!

Zombies is unlikely, since most people NOW know how to deal with them.

I'm guessing these:
Tyranids
Ponies
A world war
Or even a plague....
That last one scares me :s

Mike Noble wrote:Well, it probably won't be an asteroid, since we can see when they are coming many years before they hit.

We actually have very little of the sky being watched. If an asteroid is headed for Earth, it is far more likely we won't see it.

It's got to be the most likely cause of armageddon. It's not that likely of course, it's just more likely than all the rest.

For a single, sudden (relatively), catastrophic event to wipe out most or all of mankind, the most likely would probably be an asteroid or virus. The coolest would be a rogue black hole passing through the solar system.

The chances of any of that happening in our lifetimes however is miniscule. I strongly believe on the other hand that we will be in the "dark ages - take two" within the next 75-150 years due to overpopulation, climate change, and piss-poor resource management. If I had to give a wild guess, I'd probably say a 50-75% chance of it happening.

txt spk apoc

Vampire apocalypse.

You heard it here first.

I'd go with MGS and say virus. Most of the other stuff is either largely within the control of humans (nuclear exchange) or highly unlikley (asteroids).

The virus on the other hand is a distinct possibility. You only need a new strain of ebola to go global and we are all well and truly buggered.

Overpopulation.

We're practically already there.