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Favourability for Romney is in the low 40s, only slightly behind Obama’s score. It leaves him ground to make up, which might be hard when he’s got so much work to do at the same time to build enthusiasm among conservatives, but it wouldn’t be impossible.
Whereas Gingrich score in the mid to high 20s, a score that basically makes you unelectable.
More importantly, Gingrich has barely enough funding for a bare bones primary campaign. He has almost no ground campaign. Romney is far more resourced, and will still need to expand greatly to match Obama’s machine in a primary. He cannot win, or even compete in a presidential election. He's what is left, after all the other not-Romneys have been tried and found crazy. Romney will win the primary and win confortably, but the desperate search among the Republican faithful for someone, anyone, but Romney shows he may have serious problems in the Presidential election.
biccat wrote:If I were a Democrat and Mitt won the primary: I would create an innocuous sounding PAC and hammer down on the fact that he's a Mormon.
This strategy wanders between dubious and poor. It’s really not testing as a major negative for Romney. Among Conservatives Romney’s biggest problem is his perceived liberal credentials, and among progressives it’s his tie to big business.
President Obama has a much better chance of winning reelection by alienating Romney from the Religious Right than he does by arguing on the issues. The fact is, Obama's record on the issues sucks. And I'm not sure blaming Bush or the majority party in 1 chamber of Congress is going to work.
Obama has done enough on social issues to convince enough progressives he’s not just like the other side. The only place he really gets hurt is on the economy, and while anyone that knows anything knows he had nothing to do with the GFC. Of course, elections aren’t decided by people that know anything.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Joey wrote:That weird American thing where, despite Fox having the largest share of the media, they all claim to be underdogs in a liberal media. Very odd.
FOX news dominates cable news, which is still only a fraction of total news coverage. News coverage on the networks draws in vastly more viewers than cable news.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Melissia wrote:That's because conservatives on average (especially religious conservatives) have a victim complex.
Being the absolutely dominant cultural force in the nation, and believing you’re under siege from everyone else is a very weird thing, but it’s what defines what these people are.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
biccat wrote:It's really not. If Romney succeeds in making the key issues in the election the economy, experience, or job performance, he wins the moderate vote. And probably quite a few liberals.
Are you really claiming that the guy who’s just been president for four years would lose on the experience front? “All you’ve done is be president… president in a government, and we all know that’s just for slackers. Whereas I was a governor.”
Meanwhile, Obama can just as easily win on the economy. All he has to do is make the case that it’s been four tough years because of the GFC, which was brought on by rampant corporate greed. It’s not the whole truth, but campaign sloganeering never is, and most importantly is frames Romney as the face of corporate greed.
If Obama succeeds in making the key issues in the election foreign policy (Romney has none, Obama at least has some), hate-the-rich OWS rhetoric, or "American Values" (which Obama steered away from in '08), he wins the middle. But if he draws off, or dissuades, the key Republican voting bloc - staunchly conservative voters - while maintaining his own, he wins, even if Romney wins on the issues.
Four years as president counts as ‘at least some’ experience on foreign policy. You’re really wowing me with your impartial reading of this election, biccat. Not that elections are won on foreign policy anyway.
For most moderates it's going to be a hard sell that Obama is doing well on the economy. The only people you're likely to convince are the left-wing, who are going to vote for Obama over Romney or Gingrich regardless.
You seem to be assuming that winning an election is about reaching out to the moderates and bringing them over to you. There are not that many moderates and very few vote. What actually matters is getting your side, either conservatives or liberals, to like you enough that they bother to get out and vote. The difference between 2004 and 2008 wasn’t that Obama was able to win moderates that Kerry couldn’t, or that Bush was more appealing to moderates than McCain, the issue was that McCain wasn’t as popular among Republican voting blocs and so their participation rates dropped, while Obama was more popular among Democrat voting blocs than Kerry. Enthusiasm is the key.
This message was edited 6 times. Last update was at 2012/02/02 03:13:57
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
Melissia wrote:That's because conservatives on average (especially religious conservatives) have a victim complex.
Being the absolutely dominant cultural force in the nation, and believing you’re under siege from everyone else is a very weird thing, but it’s what defines what these people are.
Weird doesn't even begin to describe it. "DEM GAYZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM BLACKZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM WOMMENZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM MUSLIMZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM LIB'RULZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM MESSICANZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" Or other variants of "DEM [insert noun here] ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" is pretty much standard fare, and it's goddamned annoying to listen to.
The average conservative's idea of "feminism" seems to be "women who want to cut mens' balls off and rule over them in a matriarchal society where men are slaves to women", which is extremely far from anything remotely resembling feminism... There's even people who argue this on this very forum.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2012/02/02 14:16:30
The people in the past who convinced themselves to do unspeakable things were no less human than you or I. They made their decisions; the only thing that prevents history from repeating itself is making different ones.
-- Adam Serwer
My blog
Melissia wrote:That's because conservatives on average (especially religious conservatives) have a victim complex.
Being the absolutely dominant cultural force in the nation, and believing you’re under siege from everyone else is a very weird thing, but it’s what defines what these people are.
Weird doesn't even begin to describe it. "DEM GAYZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM BLACKZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM WOMMENZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM MUSLIMZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM LIB'RULZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM MESSICANZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" Or other variants of "DEM [insert noun here] ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" is pretty much standard fare, and it's goddamned annoying to listen to.
The average conservative's idea of "feminism" seems to be "women who want to cut mens' balls off and rule over them in a matriarchal society where men are slaves to women", which is extremely far from anything remotely resembling feminism... There's even people who argue this on this very forum.
Nice rant.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
Have you met Melissia? She doesn't like Republicans.
The idea that Republicans are the party with a victim complex is completely absurd.
I dunno. A lot of their ideas are centered around people coming to get them/retaking America or that sort of thing. Obviously not all Republicans have victim complexes, but most lead Republicans do.
Melissia wrote:That's because conservatives on average (especially religious conservatives) have a victim complex.
Being the absolutely dominant cultural force in the nation, and believing you’re under siege from everyone else is a very weird thing, but it’s what defines what these people are.
Weird doesn't even begin to describe it. "DEM GAYZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM BLACKZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM WOMMENZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM MUSLIMZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM LIB'RULZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" "DEM MESSICANZ ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" Or other variants of "DEM [insert noun here] ARE COMIN' AFTER US!" is pretty much standard fare, and it's goddamned annoying to listen to.
The average conservative's idea of "feminism" seems to be "women who want to cut mens' balls off and rule over them in a matriarchal society where men are slaves to women", which is extremely far from anything remotely resembling feminism... There's even people who argue this on this very forum.
biccat wrote:The idea that Republicans are the party with a victim complex is completely absurd
The republican party plays the victim complex card on immigration issues. The republican party plays the victim complex card on tax issues. The republican party plays the victim complex card on sexuality issues. The republican party plays the victim complex card on gun control issues. The republican party plays the victim complex card on minority rights issues. The republican party plays the victim complex card on race issues. The republican party plays the victim complex card on religious rights issues. The republican party plays the victim complex card on foreign policy issues.
Appealing to the majority populace claiming that "you are a victim and I am on your side" is standard republican fare..
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2012/02/02 14:49:56
The people in the past who convinced themselves to do unspeakable things were no less human than you or I. They made their decisions; the only thing that prevents history from repeating itself is making different ones.
-- Adam Serwer
My blog
biccat wrote:The idea that Republicans are the party with a victim complex is completely absurd
The republican party plays the victim complex card on immigration issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on tax issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on sexuality issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on gun control issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on minority rights issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on race issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on religious rights issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on foreign policy issues.
Appealing to the majority populace claiming that "you are a victim and I am on your side" is standard republican fare..
You're right. I'll note additionally that:
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on immigration issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on tax issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on sexuality issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on gun control issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on minority rights issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on race issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on religious rights issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on foreign policy issues.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
@Frazzled that is because on some ssues people are victims of a socially conservative order. Example, Sexuality and race.
Conservatives are not vitims when you are trying to change an order that all it does it make people equal
hotsauceman1 wrote:@Frazzled that is because on some ssues people are victims of a socially conservative order. Example, Sexuality and race. Conservatives are not vitims when you are trying to change an order that all it does it make people equal
Totally.
When Republicans do something, it's bad.
When Democrats do it, it's because they're right.
Like when the Democrats fillibustered almost all of President Bush's nominees, it's because they were bad candidates. But when the Republicans fillibustered almost all of President Obama's nominees, it's because the Republicans are jerk-faces.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/02 15:29:58
biccat wrote:The idea that Republicans are the party with a victim complex is completely absurd
The republican party plays the victim complex card on immigration issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on tax issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on sexuality issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on gun control issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on minority rights issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on race issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on religious rights issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on foreign policy issues.
Appealing to the majority populace claiming that "you are a victim and I am on your side" is standard republican fare..
You're right. I'll note additionally that:
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on immigration issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on tax issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on sexuality issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on gun control issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on minority rights issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on race issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on religious rights issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on foreign policy issues.
Politicians gonna politics. Let's be honest, this is standard fare for parties everywhere.
Melissia wrote:Stopping power IS a deterrent. The bigger a hole you put in them the more deterred they are.
Waaagh! Gorskar = 2050pts
Iron Warriors VII Company = 1850pts
Fjälnir Ironfist's Great Company = 1800pts
Guflag's Mercenary Ogres = 2000pts
hotsauceman1 wrote:@Frazzled that is because on some ssues people are victims of a socially conservative order. Example, Sexuality and race.
Conservatives are not vitims when you are trying to change an order that all it does it make people equal
Totally.
When Republicans do something, it's bad.
When Democrats do it, it's because they're right.
Like when the Democrats fillibustered almost all of President Bush's nominees, it's because they were bad candidates. But when the Republicans fillibustered almost all of President Obama's nominees, it's because the Republicans are jerk-faces.
biccat wrote:The idea that Republicans are the party with a victim complex is completely absurd
The republican party plays the victim complex card on immigration issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on tax issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on sexuality issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on gun control issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on minority rights issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on race issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on religious rights issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on foreign policy issues.
Appealing to the majority populace claiming that "you are a victim and I am on your side" is standard republican fare..
You're right. I'll note additionally that:
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on immigration issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on tax issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on sexuality issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on gun control issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on minority rights issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on race issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on religious rights issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on foreign policy issues.
Politicians gonna politics. Let's be honest, this is standard fare for parties everywhere.
Yea I'd put in Libertarians, American Communists, and Greens but my fingers are getting tired.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
biccat wrote:The idea that Republicans are the party with a victim complex is completely absurd.
Seconded.
While they do engage in that sort of behavior, the idea that it's Republicans doing it exclusively is laughable.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Frazzled wrote:
Melissia wrote:
biccat wrote:The idea that Republicans are the party with a victim complex is completely absurd
The republican party plays the victim complex card on immigration issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on tax issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on sexuality issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on gun control issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on minority rights issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on race issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on religious rights issues.
The republican party plays the victim complex card on foreign policy issues.
Appealing to the majority populace claiming that "you are a victim and I am on your side" is standard republican fare..
You're right. I'll note additionally that:
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on immigration issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on tax issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on sexuality issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on gun control issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on minority rights issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on race issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on religious rights issues.
The Democratic Party plays the victim complex card on foreign policy issues.
Pretty much this.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/02 16:11:34
Drink deeply and lustily from the foamy draught of evil.
W: 1.756 Quadrillion L: 0 D: 2
Haters gon' hate.
Melissia wrote:Appealing to the majority populace claiming that "you are a victim and I am on your side" is standard republican fare..
You're right. I'll note additionally that:[snip]
Perhaps, but this is directed at minority groups who are actually being victimized (e.g. homosexuals denied the right to marry).
The majority population is not.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/02 16:51:17
The people in the past who convinced themselves to do unspeakable things were no less human than you or I. They made their decisions; the only thing that prevents history from repeating itself is making different ones.
-- Adam Serwer
My blog
Melissia wrote:Appealing to the majority populace claiming that "you are a victim and I am on your side" is standard republican fare..
You're right. I'll note additionally that:[snip]
Perhaps, but this is directed at minority groups who are actually being victimized (e.g. homosexuals denied the right to marry).
The majority population is not.
But minorities make up majorities in this country, so it no longer applies now does it.
Everyone's a minority. Minorities make up the majority of this country. Therefore everyone is also the majority.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/02 16:55:21
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
Frazzled wrote:But minorities make up majorities in this country
Only combined. Many have competing interests I should note.
But the argument that, to continue the previous example, heterosexuals are "victimzed" by homosexuals wanting to marry is stupid and without any logical merit.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2012/02/02 17:00:31
The people in the past who convinced themselves to do unspeakable things were no less human than you or I. They made their decisions; the only thing that prevents history from repeating itself is making different ones.
-- Adam Serwer
My blog
Frazzled wrote:But minorities make up majorities in this country
Only combined. Many hvae competing interests I should note.
Not just many. EVERYONE has competing interests. And you think thats bad, at least we're not nature.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
Frazzled wrote:But minorities make up majorities in this country
Only combined. Many hvae competing interests I should note.
Not just many. EVERYONE has competing interests.
Many interests have at least something that goes well together. It is why the civil rights movement encompasses more than merely ethnic-black Americans, for example.
And you still didn't answer the second part of that post...
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/02 17:05:48
The people in the past who convinced themselves to do unspeakable things were no less human than you or I. They made their decisions; the only thing that prevents history from repeating itself is making different ones.
-- Adam Serwer
My blog
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/02 17:14:13
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
"But the argument that, to continue the previous example, heterosexuals are "victimzed" by homosexuals wanting to marry is stupid and without any logical merit."
There you go Frazz. That one.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/02 17:26:28
"But i'm more than just a little curious, how you're planning to go about making your amends, to the dead?" -The Noose-APC
"Little angel go away
Come again some other day
The devil has my ear today
I'll never hear a word you say" Weak and Powerless - APC
If you're the majority then you're not a minority thats just basic diction. On the inverse, everyone's a minority too, as Melissia noted, everyone has different interests.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/02 17:29:39
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
It should be noted that you're quoting the "sociology" definition of minority. Sociologists basically invented the victimization cottage industry, so anything they say should be taken with a grain of salt.
minority, a culturally, ethnically, or racially distinct group that coexists with but is subordinate to a more dominant group.
I'm a minority ten times over. I'm the victim! Give me money!
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
Frazzled wrote:If you're the majority then you're not a minority thats just basic diction. On the inverse, everyone's a minority too, as Melissia noted, everyone has different interests.
It should be noted that you're quoting the "sociology" definition of minority. Sociologists basically invented the victimization cottage industry, so anything they say should be taken with a grain of salt.
minority, a culturally, ethnically, or racially distinct group that coexists with but is subordinate to a more dominant group.
Yay, I'm a minority!
Sociologists didnt invent it. They just expsosed it.
Also what type of victim are you?
5000pts 
6000pts 
3000pts
Waaagh! Gorskar = 2050pts
Iron Warriors VII Company = 1850pts
Fjälnir Ironfist's Great Company = 1800pts
Guflag's Mercenary Ogres = 2000pts
