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I suppose that in the unlikely event that GW do chose to resolve that stage of the crusade - something I'd rather appreciate, since Abaddon really would benefit from appearing less of an armless failure - they did provide themselves in the original campaign write-up with a potential "Neo-Cadia".

SENTINEL
During the opening stages of the Crusade, the sentinel worlds had little in the way of full-scale engagements, although a node in the webway stationed above the void worlds saw a lot of conflict between the Eldar and their enemies. The most notable development emerged from this unregarded backwater system just as the wars reached their peak, with hordes of silvered Necron warriors emerging from hidden tombs on the four planets surrounding Hydra Cordatus in a rough pyramid pattern. The Imperial forces stationed nearby feared the worst, but were amazed when the Necrontyr fell upon the soldiers of Chaos, turning the tide in favour of the forces of Order. Since that time, increased Necron activity in the sector has prevented any Imperial forces from capitalising upon these victories, and remote orbital pict-captures have even revealed several structures almost identical to the Cadian Pylons sprouting across the landscapes of these four sentinel worlds.

We may be fortunate enough to find out how everything was resolved on the 15th September...

BlaxicanX wrote:
In space warfare, whoever has air superiority will win the fight regardless of what's happening on the ground. The Chaos forces can win as many battles on the ground as they want- they'll never be able to organize their troops into any real battlegroups because Imperium ships will just level them to paste with orbital bombardments. The Chaos forces will basically be forced to run around underground for the entirety of the war.

Abaddon was able to bypass Cadia with a fleet, but now that Imperial forces have space superiority around the Cadian Gate, that means no more fleet reinforcements for Abaddon.

The 13th Crusade did a number on the Imperium, but as long as they hold the Gate the fight's already lost for Abaddon.

Except that is not how it works in the 40K paradigm. GW has constructed a universe where space power is NOT the supreme be all and end all of the military forces. Arguing how it "should" be in your own personal fan universe has no bearing on the paradigm for the fictional universe that GW as IP holder has constructed.

In the 40K universe paradigm, space power is one arm, an important one, but not the only one that matters. In particular, with reference to the BFG rulebook, the firepower of ground defense installations actually is superior to a bombarding ship, and is likely far more affordable in terms of cost. The average planetary defense laser silo packs almost as much firepower as the broadside of a Gothic cruiser, with greater range than the Gothic. Likewise, the average planetary defense missile silo has the launch capacity of a full cruiser, and the average planetary defense air base has enough short range aerospace fighters and bombers to match a Dictator cruiser.

From the old GW Armageddon 3 website archived at http://web.archive.org/web/20040805101210/http://www.armageddon3.com/English/Campaign/BFG/BFGmap.html

we can see the defenses of each hive on Armageddon comprised at least 4 air bases, 8 missile silos, and 8 laser silos. That kind of firepower would be enough to shred your average navy frigate, and even your average cruiser, if they tried to bombard the hive. Even if one takes Armageddon to be a more heavily defended than usual hive world, it still gives a rough gauge of the defenses a typical hive or fortress/Kasr might have, which still is likely to overpower most spaceships.

Then we have multiple examples extant in the universe of facilities and cities shielded by void shields or other more esoteric shields, so orbital bombardment isn't some instant "I win" card.

Achieving low orbit is essential to any such attack, as a drop ship's range is very limited and any attempt to bombard ground forces from a greater distance is purely up to chance. p. 48 BFG rulebook

Thus in 40K ships are only capable of low orbital attack, and this renders them vulnerable to return fire.

So, no, Abaddon holding the planets doesn't mean a loss, because ground defenses can fend off ships far more cost effectively. Also as others have mentioned, Chaos has daemonic summoning and other unconventional means of movement or resupply. Finally, it is not as if the Chaos forces are taking over uninhabited chunks of rock. Conquered Imperial territory will have supplies that can be used.

Also in the Black Library 13th Black Crusade background book, the characters state that no blockade is ever airtight, meaning there are still ships that get through on supply runs. It's a simple fact of the sheer vastness of space and the limited number of ships that can be on station, so an advantage in space does not mean some total choking off of supplies.

BlaxicanX wrote:Doesn't matter what Failbaddon does.

In space warfare, whoever has air superiority will win the fight regardless of what's happening on the ground. The Chaos forces can win as many battles on the ground as they want- they'll never be able to organize their troops into any real battlegroups because Imperium ships will just level them to paste with orbital bombardments. The Chaos forces will basically be forced to run around underground for the entirety of the war.

Abaddon was able to bypass Cadia with a fleet, but now that Imperial forces have space superiority around the Cadian Gate, that means no more fleet reinforcements for Abaddon.

The 13th Crusade did a number on the Imperium, but as long as they hold the Gate the fight's already lost for Abaddon.

As the 13. Black Crusade backgroundbook stated, Quarren's fleet took heavy casualties when it drove off the Blackstone fortress.
With no immidiate reinforcements avaiable he might simply lack the strenght for a direct attack against Cadia, even if he has achieved
relative dominance in outer space.

^-This is a very important point that is actually not your stock absurd 40k explanation. Think of it this way: If you can put it on a ship, you can put it on a planet, but you have no mass or volume limitations, and you don't have to rely on an esoteric power source small enough to fit in a spacecraft. Planetary defenses should always beat space-based defenses. Assuming Chaos actually can open non-spacecraft based supply lines, they could thrive on the planet indefinitely.

Iracundus wrote:

Except that is not how it works in the 40K paradigm.

The 40K paradigm is idiotic and not worth the time it takes to dwell on it. In the 40K paradigm, bringing a knife to a gun fight makes perfect sense. It isn't based on any kind of logic or sense, and it's been written in such a way that anything is possible. That's why I don't take the 40K paradigm into consideration in my posts.

I have no idea how Abaddon is holding on in the first place. They're being bombed 24/7 with no reinforcements, and are completely surrounded with no supplies.
Vea Victis!

Biophysical wrote:Think of it this way: If you can put it on a ship, you can put it on a planet, but you have no mass or volume limitations, and you don't have to rely on an esoteric power source small enough to fit in a spacecraft.

On the other hand, you have arcs of fire and blind spots to deal with. Unlike starships, planets usually do not turn around for a broadside.
So, unless you're comfortable littering the entire surface with gun batteries, there will be an opening. And even if you do that, you cannot bring all your weapons to bear on the enemy craft. And even of those guns that you can point towards the enemy, a large portion of those will have to deal with reduced accuracy and/or travel time. Missiles might be a better solution, but how many missiles would be left in those silos when the Imperium already used them trying to repel Abaddon's forces? And that's not even considering the possibility that a number of defence installations may have been scuttled by their defenders, or destroyed by Chaos forces during the initial invasion (assuming they did not plan on having to dig in so soon). Also, how many generatoriums are left on Cadia? How much fuel? An invasion as brutal and destructive as this (keeping in mind the sheer size of the populace putting up a fight necessitating wide-scale destruction of habitats) surely would have devastated the infrastructure?

Just something to consider. In my interpretation, planetary defences can surely be much more powerful than spaceborn weapon systems, but there are some drawbacks to keep in mind as well.

I'm curious to see whether GW is going to retcon anything about the 13th Black Crusade, though. The timeline rollback surely would only make sense if there's something in the pipes for the near future, right? Otherwise it'd just remove a potential and fun warzone to play games in with no good reason.

Testify wrote:I have no idea how Abaddon is holding on in the first place. They're being bombed 24/7 with no reinforcements, and are completely surrounded with no supplies.
Vea Victis!

1. Chaos aren't being bombed 24/7 they are only subject to a relitivly low amount of bombardment from ships in the area that just drove off a black fortress aka are supper strapped of supplies. NTM the Impirum was blasted to hell by a BF so the ground isn't doing all that well either.

2. Abbandon isn't there, he's with planet killer fighting creed (and probably loosing, hey it's failbandon we're talking about).

3. Other systems are being pounded by the orks Green Kroosade and a tyranid splinter fleet.

4. Don't worry reinforcements are on their way from the eastern frin....oh wait (look up Hive fleet Leviathan)

All in all the Imperium is realing, and if GW ever desided to advance the story there could a a mountain of fluff and story they could harvest before coming to a screaching halt, like we all know they love to do, right before a monsterous cliff hanger.

BlaxicanX wrote:

Iracundus wrote:

Except that is not how it works in the 40K paradigm.

The 40K paradigm is idiotic and not worth the time it takes to dwell on it. In the 40K paradigm, bringing a knife to a gun fight makes perfect sense. It isn't based on any kind of logic or sense, and it's been written in such a way that anything is possible. That's why I don't take the 40K paradigm into consideration in my posts.

Doesn't matter what you think because you don't own the IP and don't get to determine what the paradigm is. Arbitrarily ignoring the paradigm means you are playing in your own personal fan universe, and not really the main 40K universe. It is equally possible to claim it is possible for somebody to punch as hard as an anti-tank missile, yet it is possible in 40K with a power fist and no amount of personal dislike is going to change that fact. The same goes with the fact that 40K space power is not supreme.

Arguing that it "should" be does no good when GW has clearly shown both with background and rules that it is not. You are trying to alter and dictate the basic paradigm of the game universe but nobody can do that except GW.

The same reasoning would apply to any other fictional universe. Trying to argue that the shields on Hoth in the Empire Strikes Back should not be proof against bombardment does no good when the movie showed it was.

I would also like to add the following.

Imperium does NOT have Orbital Naval Dominance

Allow me to demonstrate why.

Cadian (sector) 85% 100% Faithful
Cadian (system) 92% 29.4% Unreliable
Cadia (planet) 95% 39.8% Unreliable

Note the 3 locations available to Cadia...

Sector representing space along the entirety of sub sector, trade routes supply lines etc,
System representing in system control
Planet... Groundpounders

clearly seeing that Chaos held advantage in both System and Planet
This would suggest feleet capabilities in system and orbit with the Cadian system being locked down to reinforcements

Icarandus Summary

The Chaos fleet, including one of the Blackstone FOrtresses - ancient engines of destruction built aeons past by unknown xenos (Eldar) - gathered above Cadia but they were delayed by lightning-fast attacks on the Blackstone by squadrons of Eldar cruisers. Lord Admiral Quarren was quick to take advantage of the delay and his counter-strike flowed from Cadia, to Xerxia and finally Demios Binary (Forces of Order event card). By dint of this cunning manoeuvre Quarren succeeded, first in dividing the main fleet and, then, in pursuing the defeated elements to final extinction. Only those squadrons that stayed close to the Blackstone Fortress remained a threat but the Chaos fleet was now concerned more with survival. Most significantly the Imperial flagship Gathalamor crippled the Merciless Death driving it to the Warp from whence it took no further part in the war.

Ok we can see that the Chaos fleet was hammered, with the Blackstone and surrounding squadrons surviving.
Icarandus Summary
The Blackstone Fortress' weaponry beat down on Kasr Partox remorselessly slaughtering the warriors of both sides. Faced wit hthe certain destruction of Cadia's last defenders Admiral Quarren had no choice but to muster his battered fleet for yet another battle. One by one the screening Chaos vessels were peeled away from the Blacstone until eventually it was forced to cease its attack and concentrate upon its own defence. With the end of the Blackstone's attack an uneasy lulled settled on Cadia during which Cred evacuat
ed Kasr Partox while he still could."

Seems that Blackstonewas in orbit...

Final Newsletter

Cadia
The bleak moors of Cadia are reduced to a barren, crater-pocked wasteland, blasted by orbital torpedoes, super-heavy artillery and the footfall of titans. The Vilklas and Andur defence lines have collapsed under the relentless pressure of a million frenzied cultists, traitors and mutants, and the Cadian High Command has been forced to relocate to Kasr Gallan on the far side of the Caducades Sea. Though the Imperial Navy is in control of the inter-system space lanes, Chaos rules the skies above Cadia since the orbital defences fell in the opening days of the Black Crusade. The defenders of Cadia are now deployed around Kasr Gallan and throughout the Wastes, resolute that not a backward step shall be taken. The order is given- ‘stand at Cadia, or damn the Imperium of Mankind to the depredations of Chaos for all eternity’.

This would stand to reason also given the results. Imperium control inter system routes, but Chaos control the Cadia System.

Final Newsletter
The space lanes
The Imperial Navy has fought with courage and vigour throughout the war, ruthlessly taking the battle to the enemy wherever it encountered them. Admiral Quarren has been hailed a true hero of the Imperium, for his masterful defence of the space lanes was all that stood between survival, and utter defeat for the Imperium. Though Cadia is besieged, the Imperial Navy commands space, and is able to offer support to beleaguered forces on the ground. The only question is whether the rapid redeployment of almost the entirety of Battle Fleet Gothic, along with a substantial proportion of Battle Fleet Solar will leave the Navy dangerously overstretched elsewhere and unable to maintain the level of operations required to hold the line at the Cadian Gate.

So it does say Space lanes, but support to ground forces can be made, given that Chaos does not dominatre system control its not an unreasonable statement that some assuistance can be provided.Also for just how long is the Imperium willing to sacrifice the heartlands of Segmentum Solar before forces relocated?

13th Black Crusade Background Book
Admiral Quarren reports that the bulk of his fleet is destroyed

The Necrons drove the Blackstone fortress away, so the complete orbital control is a bit fuzzy, so I would have to work with final 5 scores already posted.

Basing that Cadia likely has Chaos supremacy in far orbit, and near planet, with Imperial blockading the system but capable of striking at the Cahos fleet, making it too risky for them to enter low orbit to provide orbital fire, equally the Imperium can break through, but to do so there blockade would weaken and they themselves are in a pretty strung up and battered.

This in my opinion is a decent reflection of both the fluff and the campaign % results.

The War on Cadia is down boots on the ground.

Iracundus wrote:

Doesn't matter what you think because you don't own the IP and don't get to determine what the paradigm is. Arbitrarily ignoring the paradigm means you are playing in your own personal fan universe, and not really the main 40K universe. It is equally possible to claim it is possible for somebody to punch as hard as an anti-tank missile, yet it is possible in 40K with a power fist and no amount of personal dislike is going to change that fact. The same goes with the fact that 40K space power is not supreme.

Arguing that it "should" be does no good when GW has clearly shown both with background and rules that it is not. You are trying to alter and dictate the basic paradigm of the game universe but nobody can do that except GW.

The same reasoning would apply to any other fictional universe. Trying to argue that the shields on Hoth in the Empire Strikes Back should not be proof against bombardment does no good when the movie showed it was.

This is an online internet discussion forum and there are no rules stating that I have to kiss GW's ass. If I want to point out how moronic GW's fluff is and criticize how they handle their universe I can do so. If I want to ignore parts of the fluff that I don't like, I can do so. If I want to argue that Ultramarines secretly are all Chaos-tainted Guardsmen wearing power armor, I am allowed to do so. That is the point of this forum- for us to discuss Warhammer 40K. The most you or anyone else can do is just disagree with me.

Furthermore, by Games Workshops own admission, there is no such thing as canon. Everything within the fluff is "open to interpretation". Thus, your stance here is incorrect. GW hasn't established anything.

So yes, I'm sure GW has invented some silly justification for why Chaos still has a foothold on Cadia despite having no air support and being completely at the mercy of orbital bombardments. Realistically though, as I stated, so long as the Imperium has control of the surrounding space Chaos loss of Cadia is inevitable.

BlaxicanX wrote:

Iracundus wrote:

Except that is not how it works in the 40K paradigm.

The 40K paradigm is idiotic and not worth the time it takes to dwell on it. In the 40K paradigm, bringing a knife to a gun fight makes perfect sense. It isn't based on any kind of logic or sense, and it's been written in such a way that anything is possible. That's why I don't take the 40K paradigm into consideration in my posts.

Except this is in the 40K universe, so it is all that matters.

This is an internet forum, not a 40K universe,

BlaxicanX wrote:This is an internet forum, not a 40K universe,

The debate is on the 40K universe. If GW says that having control of space isn't important, it isn't important. You can tell yourself whatever you want, but you are wrong. Also, as you yourself stated, the entire 40K universe isn't realistic, so why the big deal about space being the only meaningful part of warfare.

The debate is on the 40K universe, but it's being discussed in the real world, not within the 40K. I don't have to use GW's twisted logic to discuss their universe.

And I again I point out that by GW's own words, there is no such thing as "canon" within their Universe. It's all up to personal interpretation and can be dismissed or taken into account at our discretion.

GW's words, not mine.

The fallacy of the "no canon" approach has already been demonstrated previously in other threads. Clearly the 40K universe is not "anything goes" because if someone were to come along and said bolters fired flowers, people would not accept that as a valid interpretation but would clearly and categorically say they were wrong. The same goes if someone were to claim Sanguinius was four armed and wingless, or any other such claims. Clearly there is a de facto canon being adhered to as without such fixed facts and rules, there can be no setting at all, just total complete nonsense. Without what is a canon in all but name, it is not possible to say anything at all. Without fixed facts, and rules about how things interact, anything no matter how seemingly ridiculous can be said and have the same validity.

However, rules and a paradigm does not have to equate to "real life" paradigm. The existence of psychic powers and warp powered machinery is non-existent in real life yet it is accepted to work within 40K. Similarly, in 40K, it has been stated within background and even enumerated in the BFG rulebook (which is available online for all to check) showing the stats in question. Namely, it demonstrates that ground based defenses pack comparable firepower to ships at a fraction of the cost, making bombardment not the be all and end all of combat.

One might try to argue that doesn't make sense, however a knight in the medieval era could have argued it makes no sense for a foot soldier to be able to equal a knight on horseback. You can decide you prefer bolters to fire flowers, but that personal preference doesn't mean bolters fire flowers in 40K any more than a personal opinion that space power is supreme means suddenly 40K space power is supreme. In other words, personal opinions of how things "should" be have absolutely no weight when it comes to determining what things actually are in the overall 40K universe.

Paradigms of warfare can and have changed with changes in technology and the varying balance between offense and defense. In 40K, GW has determined that the balance of space vs. ground power is such that space power has influence but is not the sole arbiter of warfare. There is no grounds to challenge this just as there is no grounds to challenge and dismiss the existence of the warp in 40K. GW says there is such a parallel dimension/universe known as the warp and that faster than light travel is possible via using the warp. A person can deny this existence and say it is silly and stupid and makes no sense. They are fine to do so within their own personal fan universe or within their local gaming group, but they can't then go around to say they are really talking about the 40K universe as understood and shared by others, since the 40K universe has the warp.