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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/13 11:11:28
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Irked Necron Immortal
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As 30 point upgrades go, it's not a bad investment. The reasoning is a little off. You don't take things because they might/maybe/hopefully will make a big difference. You take them because you know they will. So, when your 200+ point overlord goes down, what are the odds you'll roll a 4? 1/6, every time.
The 30 points by themselves will not allow you to purchase something new and game changing, but added to 10 shaved off here and 15 there you can really get somewhere. That's called optimizing your army. Yeah, it's going to hurt the one time you do roll a 4, but just remind yourself of how much more use you're getting our of those points.
Eh that sounds a little preacher then I mean it. I'm just asking you to not discount the other guys hard math do easily.
What I do and sink the orb into units with multiple overlords and chronoteks. Greatly increases the odds the orb will actually do something.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/13 12:26:56
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Daemonic Dreadnought
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i find that scarabs are really good at tarpittign units. Charge a 75 point scarabs squad into an assault squad and you coudl tie it up for the whol game.
I personally have more luck with a Doomscythe than i did with a Nightscythe (but i only have 1).
Anni barges will quite happily tidy up those assault sqauds or drop pods. potentially S7 heavy 12 for their meager pioints cost? I ALWAYS take 2.
And, as has been stated, Wraiths. Even if they just move to the middle of the table, that can be enought make him drop hsi pods somewhere else out of charge range. put them with your D-lord for added nastiness. A unit of 3 isn't ideal but it is still nasty unit have to deal with.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/13 16:05:50
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Pyro Pilot of a Triach Stalker
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azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote: azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote: Godless-Mimicry wrote:If you saying that you getting lucky trumps probability wasn't enough to discredit your argument, your advocation of taking the Orb for a unit where only one model can use it surely does.
Its not luck. It's a 50% chance your 200+ point Lord will get back up. It is just as likely to get up every time as it is to fail it every time. And at 30pts, its a bargain.
I hate having to explain the gambler's fallacy.
Yes, when observing a single die roll of 4+, it is a 50% chance that it will be in your favour, or 1/2. While each subsequent roll is not affected by the outcome of the previous roll, the overall probability of all three being in your favour is as such: (1/2)*(1/2)*1/2), or 1/8
And remember, the Rez Orb only changes a 5+ roll to a 4+ roll, so you're only looking at a 1/6 difference. Next time you play a game, count the number of times your Overlord rolls a 4 to get up from Ever-Living (because rolling a 5 or a 6 would stand him up anyway). The true benefit is only when you roll a natural 4 for your Ever-Living roll.
EDIT: Also, I cannot come up with a good reason why your Lord costs you 200+ points, so I think you're doing something wrong there.
I play Warhammer, not math hammer. Yor statistical analysis has no practical application
Why did you even bother coming to the tactics forum, then? Clearly there is nothing for you here.
No your generalization that a Res Orb is tactically a waste of points that doesn't pay for its points back, is just wrong. I called you out on it as it has been the single most useful piece of wargear in the entire Necron army list in games I have played several times over. Why are you on a tactics forum if you have already mastered the game of math hammer and apparently aren't playing 40k at all?
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/13 20:29:13
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Depraved Slaanesh Chaos Lord
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NecronLord3 wrote: azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote: azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote: Godless-Mimicry wrote:If you saying that you getting lucky trumps probability wasn't enough to discredit your argument, your advocation of taking the Orb for a unit where only one model can use it surely does.
Its not luck. It's a 50% chance your 200+ point Lord will get back up. It is just as likely to get up every time as it is to fail it every time. And at 30pts, its a bargain.
I hate having to explain the gambler's fallacy.
Yes, when observing a single die roll of 4+, it is a 50% chance that it will be in your favour, or 1/2. While each subsequent roll is not affected by the outcome of the previous roll, the overall probability of all three being in your favour is as such: (1/2)*(1/2)*1/2), or 1/8
And remember, the Rez Orb only changes a 5+ roll to a 4+ roll, so you're only looking at a 1/6 difference. Next time you play a game, count the number of times your Overlord rolls a 4 to get up from Ever-Living (because rolling a 5 or a 6 would stand him up anyway). The true benefit is only when you roll a natural 4 for your Ever-Living roll.
EDIT: Also, I cannot come up with a good reason why your Lord costs you 200+ points, so I think you're doing something wrong there.
I play Warhammer, not math hammer. Yor statistical analysis has no practical application
Why did you even bother coming to the tactics forum, then? Clearly there is nothing for you here.
No your generalization that a Res Orb is tactically a waste of points that doesn't pay for its points back, is just wrong. I called you out on it as it has been the single most useful piece of wargear in the entire Necron army list in games I have played several times over. Why are you on a tactics forum if you have already mastered the game of math hammer and apparently aren't playing 40k at all?
This is how you determine if your Rez Orb is worth taking:
(cost of unit)*(0.167) = X
If X > 30 the Rez Orb is worth taking in the unit. In this case, any unit is worth taking if its total point cost is 180 points or more, not including the cost of the Rez Orb. This equation is based on the idea that the Rez Orb will work (roll a natural 4) once. If you want to marginally increase the value you place on it, then you can alter the equation to account for the probability that the Rez Orb will work twice (roll a natural 4 both times):
(cost of unit)*(0.167+0.028) = Z
If Z > 30 the Rez Orb is worth taking in the unit. In this case, any unit is worth taking if its total point cost is 154 points or more, not including the cost of the Rez Orb. This new equation is based on the idea that you roll a natural 4 for Ever-Living twice in a game (which would occur only 2.8% of those times that the Overlord dies twice).
So let's determine if it's a mathematically good idea to bring a Rez Orb with a D.Lord in a unit of Wraiths:
D.Lord w/ Warscythe, MSS, Sempiternal Weave = 160
(160)*(0.167) = 26.72 which is less than the cost of a Rez Orb, implying that the points for a Rez Orb are better spent elsewhere. Like another Wraith, or 3x Whip Coils.
Now, the only other two pieces of wargear the D.Lord can take are the Tachyon Arrow and the Rez Orb itself. The cost of the Rez Orb cannot be included in the unit cost, as it would create a near-paradox in its justification: if the cost of the Rez Orb is what justifies taking it, then not taking it would also justify not taking it. And the Tachyon Arrow should not be included as a factor for the cost of a D.Lord, because it is a one-use-only Assault weapon with unlimited range, and therefore is extremely unlikely to not have been already been used prior to the death of its Jump Infantry, 3-wound, 2+ save user. Because there is no further use beyond the single shot of the Tachyon Arrow, its value cannot be factored in when determining the value of the unit for the purposes of calculating the worth of the Rez Orb.
And son, I'm on the tactics forum to help other people. Like you. Who asked for help.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/13 21:11:52
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Warp-Screaming Noise Marine
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Getting back on topic...
I think I figured out the list i'm going to take next time
Zandrekh - 185
2x Lord - 150
Weave, Scythe, MSS
Cryptek - 40
Abyssal Staff, Nightmare Shroud
Cryptek - 40
Voltaic Staff, Ether Crystal
2x 14^Warriors - 364
2x Night Scythe - 200
10^Immortals - 170
Gauss
10^Immortals - 170
Tesla
10^Scarabs - 150
10^Scarabs - 150
10^Scarabs - 150
Annihilation Barge - 90
Tesla
Annihilation Barge - 90
Tesla
Aegis Defense Line - 50
I'm really liking this list, gives me mobility, counter assault units, versatility, and variaty!
Someday i can see myself loosing a squad os scarabs for 3 spyders or taking a 3rd barge but i want to see how this works first
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"Decadence Unbound..."
10,000+
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/13 21:57:37
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Regular Dakkanaut
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An easy way to look at whether or not you should take a res.orb is that the res.orb brings back 1/6 of the point cost of a model every time they take a RP with a res.orb in the unit.
So a unit of warriors you "make" 2.167 points per RP you take, whether or not you make it. So in order to justify taking an orb in a squad of warriors you have to take 14 RP during the game just to get your points back.
I'll never understand those who want to put a res.orb on a destroyer lord who joins wraiths. I can only understand if you've run out of places to dump points into then put it on him since it is a loss of points but it isn't too bad.
The res.orb is really only ever useful on a squad of lytchguard or praetoreans(or I guess even a kitted royal court) and neither of those units are very good. A case can be made for having an orb in a 20 man blob and I can see the point to that. Realistically if your trying to make a good list the only orbs in your list should be attached to very large warrior blobs, lytchguard, or pratoriens, or if you took zhandrek since he basically gets one for free(hes the only orb I ever take).
While were talking about point effective wargear options, why would you ever take a phase shifter on a foot lord its a terrible waste of points. The weave ignores power weapons and almost everything in cc thats ap2 strikes after you strike. Then for shooting you have your 2+ save which is only not used against things like plasma, and when that happens you can just LOS on a 2+ to shove the wound to a squad mate.
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Psienesis wrote:While that's possible, it's also stupid to build your game around your customers being fething morons |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 06:18:48
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Pyro Pilot of a Triach Stalker
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azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote: azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote: azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote: Godless-Mimicry wrote:If you saying that you getting lucky trumps probability wasn't enough to discredit your argument, your advocation of taking the Orb for a unit where only one model can use it surely does.
Its not luck. It's a 50% chance your 200+ point Lord will get back up. It is just as likely to get up every time as it is to fail it every time. And at 30pts, its a bargain.
I hate having to explain the gambler's fallacy.
Yes, when observing a single die roll of 4+, it is a 50% chance that it will be in your favour, or 1/2. While each subsequent roll is not affected by the outcome of the previous roll, the overall probability of all three being in your favour is as such: (1/2)*(1/2)*1/2), or 1/8
And remember, the Rez Orb only changes a 5+ roll to a 4+ roll, so you're only looking at a 1/6 difference. Next time you play a game, count the number of times your Overlord rolls a 4 to get up from Ever-Living (because rolling a 5 or a 6 would stand him up anyway). The true benefit is only when you roll a natural 4 for your Ever-Living roll.
EDIT: Also, I cannot come up with a good reason why your Lord costs you 200+ points, so I think you're doing something wrong there.
I play Warhammer, not math hammer. Yor statistical analysis has no practical application
Why did you even bother coming to the tactics forum, then? Clearly there is nothing for you here.
No your generalization that a Res Orb is tactically a waste of points that doesn't pay for its points back, is just wrong. I called you out on it as it has been the single most useful piece of wargear in the entire Necron army list in games I have played several times over. Why are you on a tactics forum if you have already mastered the game of math hammer and apparently aren't playing 40k at all?
This is how you determine if your Rez Orb is worth taking:
(cost of unit)*(0.167) = X
If X > 30 the Rez Orb is worth taking in the unit. In this case, any unit is worth taking if its total point cost is 180 points or more, not including the cost of the Rez Orb. This equation is based on the idea that the Rez Orb will work (roll a natural 4) once. If you want to marginally increase the value you place on it, then you can alter the equation to account for the probability that the Rez Orb will work twice (roll a natural 4 both times):
(cost of unit)*(0.167+0.028) = Z
If Z > 30 the Rez Orb is worth taking in the unit. In this case, any unit is worth taking if its total point cost is 154 points or more, not including the cost of the Rez Orb. This new equation is based on the idea that you roll a natural 4 for Ever-Living twice in a game (which would occur only 2.8% of those times that the Overlord dies twice).
So let's determine if it's a mathematically good idea to bring a Rez Orb with a D.Lord in a unit of Wraiths:
D.Lord w/ Warscythe, MSS, Sempiternal Weave = 160
(160)*(0.167) = 26.72 which is less than the cost of a Rez Orb, implying that the points for a Rez Orb are better spent elsewhere. Like another Wraith, or 3x Whip Coils.
Now, the only other two pieces of wargear the D.Lord can take are the Tachyon Arrow and the Rez Orb itself. The cost of the Rez Orb cannot be included in the unit cost, as it would create a near-paradox in its justification: if the cost of the Rez Orb is what justifies taking it, then not taking it would also justify not taking it. And the Tachyon Arrow should not be included as a factor for the cost of a D.Lord, because it is a one-use-only Assault weapon with unlimited range, and therefore is extremely unlikely to not have been already been used prior to the death of its Jump Infantry, 3-wound, 2+ save user. Because there is no further use beyond the single shot of the Tachyon Arrow, its value cannot be factored in when determining the value of the unit for the purposes of calculating the worth of the Rez Orb.
And son, I'm on the tactics forum to help other people. Like you. Who asked for help.
I never asked for help. I told you you were underestimating the effectiveness of a Lord getting back up 3 times in one game. Your bs equations have nothing to do with actual game play. And don't call me son, I've been playing this game for a decade longer than you.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 09:28:31
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Depraved Slaanesh Chaos Lord
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NecronLord3 wrote:Your bs equations have nothing to do with actual game play.
I'm not confident in your understanding of how these things work ---> NecronLord3 wrote:And don't call me son, I've been playing this game for a decade longer than you.
An arbitrary assumption with no more validity than your understanding of probability. However, if there is any chance of it being true, it only makes your belief that dice outcomes are magical events that much more of a tragedy. You can get riled up all you like; it won't change how math works. Although, I would appreciate it if you would truncate your feigned authority and instead discuss your objections in a more civil, rational manner. However, if you're incapable of doing so, then please let me know and I shall conclude our back-and-forth immediately as I am afraid that I have no patience to engage in a chest-thumping match in the tactics forum. Riddick40k wrote:Getting back on topic... I think I figured out the list i'm going to take next time I'm really liking this list, gives me mobility, counter assault units, versatility, and variaty! Someday i can see myself loosing a squad os scarabs for 3 spyders or taking a 3rd barge but i want to see how this works first
Unless you're planning on using the Scarabs to spread out and cover ground so that a DP list cannot get anywhere near anything of value (not an unreasonable approach), I would definitely recommend trading in a unit of Scarabs for 3x Tomb Spyders. Their ability to generate new Scarab bases is quite valuable, and the Spyders themselves are dirt cheap MCs that could easily cause some problems for DP lists. Overall it's a decent list, but I'm a little unsure what the Nightmare Shroud is doing in there. EDIT: Added the spoiler tag for brevity.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/12/14 09:41:10
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 09:35:02
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Pyro Pilot of a Triach Stalker
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azazel the cat wrote:
NecronLord3 wrote:And don't call me son, I've been playing this game for a decade longer than you.
An arbitrary assumption with no more validity than your understanding of probability. However, if there is any chance of it being true, it only makes your belief that dice outcomes are magical events that much more of a tragedy.
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Arbitrary assumption? Try reading your profile genius.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 09:49:02
Subject: Re:How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Depraved Slaanesh Chaos Lord
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Huh? Oh. Yeah, I started playing 40k in 2011. Warhammer in general, however, would be a lot closer to sometime in the mid-90s... not that it matters, as math hasn't exactly changed since then. But if you've been playing 40k for a decade, why haven't you figured out that Mathhammer is a very, very important part of playing this game competitively? Actually, don't answer that. I don't really care. Are we done? I'm much more content to have a discussion with the OP and others.
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This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2012/12/14 09:56:49
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 10:15:53
Subject: Re:How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Pyro Pilot of a Triach Stalker
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azazel the cat wrote:Huh? Oh. Yeah, I started playing 40k in 2011. Warhammer in general, however, would be a lot closer to sometime in the mid-90s... not that it matters, as math hasn't exactly changed since then.
But if you've been playing 40k for a decade, why haven't you figured out that Mathhammer is a very, very important part of playing this game competitively?
Actually, don't answer that. I don't really care. Are we done?
I'm much more content to have a discussion with the OP and others.
text removed.
reds8n
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/12/14 11:54:28
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 11:41:13
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Proud Triarch Praetorian
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Can we drop the math-hammer/English language usage mud-slinging contest already? We don't care.
Back to the original topic,
It looks like the best answer is also the simplest: bubble wrap the units you're worried about (Scarabs look like your best bet).
A mini Scarab-farm could work wonderfully. Scarabs tie up any drop podding chumps, and Spyders come along to smash them from behind.
Either that or have the Scarabs be disposable. Don't have the Spyders join in, and as soon as the unit of Scarabs is taken out, suddenly the invading SM find themselves staring down the barrel of many many guns (who had been patiently waiting for the Marines to finish off the little bugs so they could have their turn to blast them).
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 12:07:14
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Possessed Khorne Marine Covered in Spikes
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The great 40k guru Ben Sime once prophesised an army so powerful that all tournaments would come to an end as people would only use this army (otherwise they would loose) and all games against two of these armies would simply end in a draw. His prophecy came true with the release of the Necron Codex where 5 barges could be taken in a single list. However, his prophecy ended there, as only a select few truly understood the power of 5 barges. To this day only a few people, including the 40k guru, can wield the power of "The Five Barge Principle". So yeah, take some more barges.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/12/14 12:07:25
Did you know? Every sunday from 12 to 5 pm you can get a carvery for £6.95 at the pudding and pye.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 12:18:21
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Nihilistic Necron Lord
The best State-Texas
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cheapbuster wrote:The great 40k guru Ben Sime once prophesised an army so powerful that all tournaments would come to an end as people would only use this army (otherwise they would loose) and all games against two of these armies would simply end in a draw. His prophecy came true with the release of the Necron Codex where 5 barges could be taken in a single list. However, his prophecy ended there, as only a select few truly understood the power of 5 barges. To this day only a few people, including the 40k guru, can wield the power of "The Five Barge Principle". So yeah, take some more barges.
I don't know what you're talking about, because Catacomb command barges aren't really that good in 6th. They were auto-takes in 5th, but it's not the case anymore.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 12:23:25
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Proud Triarch Praetorian
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Sasori wrote: cheapbuster wrote:The great 40k guru Ben Sime once prophesised an army so powerful that all tournaments would come to an end as people would only use this army (otherwise they would loose) and all games against two of these armies would simply end in a draw. His prophecy came true with the release of the Necron Codex where 5 barges could be taken in a single list. However, his prophecy ended there, as only a select few truly understood the power of 5 barges. To this day only a few people, including the 40k guru, can wield the power of "The Five Barge Principle". So yeah, take some more barges.
I don't know what you're talking about, because Catacomb command barges aren't really that good in 6th. They were auto-takes in 5th, but it's not the case anymore.
Maybe he means 2000+ point double force org games? (because 6 Barges would be overkill)
;P
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 15:54:44
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Daemonic Dreadnought
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At least 2 Anni Barges are almost an auto-take for most necron lists i think.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 18:46:45
Subject: Re:How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Depraved Slaanesh Chaos Lord
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Even with a doubled FOC, I don't really think 5x Annihilation Barges is a great idea. Even though they're a steal at their point cost, five of 'em still takes up 450 points, which is a significant chunk of the army. And I don't really think the mentality of "if one is good, five is awesome" really holds as true to the Necron codex as it does to some others -diversity is the key with the Necrons, not spamming a single unit.
But I think it's very hard to go wrong with 2x Annihilation Barges.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/14 23:30:30
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Devestating Grey Knight Dreadknight
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NecronLord3 wrote:I play Warhammer, not math hammer. Yor statistical analysis has no practical application
Unless you have a way to influence your dice, the above is impossible. Mathhammer is nothing more than a term to describe how probability and statistics affect games of Warhammer. So unless you are claiming your games are somehow exempt from these fundamental laws then mathhammer is part of your game whether you like it or not. And if you choose to ignore it, that still doesn't make you even remotely close to correct; rolling 3 4+'s in a row is above average luck, and unlikely. You can scream otherwise until you are blue in the face, but in the end it changes nothing.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/12/14 23:31:47
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/15 05:19:14
Subject: Re:How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Fixture of Dakka
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2 pages in and no one has given the single most important strategy against drop pods: Stay together.
Keep your army wadded up such that every part of your army can deal with something that lands near any other part of your army. Drop Pod lists don't come equipped with battle cannons, so you don't really have much to worry about on that front.
Create greater force concentration than he can put near you effectively.
Do not spread out across your deployment zone. Do not go randomly chasing after pointless objectives. Do not allow enough room for melta guns to land near your vehicles. Stay together.
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"'players must agree how they are going to select their armies, and if any restrictions apply to the number and type of models they can use."
This is an actual rule in the actual rulebook. Quit whining about how you can imagine someone's army touching you in a bad place and play by the actual rules.
Freelance Ontologist
When people ask, "What's the point in understanding everything?" they've just disqualified themselves from using questions and should disappear in a puff of paradox. But they don't understand and just continue existing, which are also their only two strategies for life. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/15 15:42:59
Subject: Re:How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Warp-Screaming Noise Marine
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DarknessEternal wrote:2 pages in and no one has given the single most important strategy against drop pods: Stay together.
Keep your army wadded up such that every part of your army can deal with something that lands near any other part of your army. Drop Pod lists don't come equipped with battle cannons, so you don't really have much to worry about on that front.
Create greater force concentration than he can put near you effectively.
Do not spread out across your deployment zone. Do not go randomly chasing after pointless objectives. Do not allow enough room for melta guns to land near your vehicles. Stay together.
The best advice so far  thanks
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"Decadence Unbound..."
10,000+
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/16 19:36:50
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Pyro Pilot of a Triach Stalker
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Godless-Mimicry wrote:NecronLord3 wrote:I play Warhammer, not math hammer. Yor statistical analysis has no practical application
Unless you have a way to influence your dice, the above is impossible. Mathhammer is nothing more than a term to describe how probability and statistics affect games of Warhammer. So unless you are claiming your games are somehow exempt from these fundamental laws then mathhammer is part of your game whether you like it or not. And if you choose to ignore it, that still doesn't make you even remotely close to correct; rolling 3 4+'s in a row is above average luck, and unlikely. You can scream otherwise until you are blue in the face, but in the end it changes nothing.
Probability and statistics have nothing to do with the 30pt chance to bring a well equipped Necronlord back. The psychological effect on your opponent alone, knowing your Warlord is that hard to permentently remove from the game, is worth every point. Does it help your Wraiths out at all, no, but in the hands of a good general the Destroyer Lord is well protected and the Orb helps with those odd situations where your luck just goes south and your lord needs the added protection with a chance of being him back. Mathhammer and actual performance in game play are two completely different things, and not something a simple equation can give you the answer for.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/16 20:02:53
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Depraved Slaanesh Chaos Lord
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NecronLord3 wrote:Probability and statistics have nothing to do with the 30pt chance to bring a well equipped Necronlord back.
Again, I don't think you understand how these things work.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/16 23:42:56
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Devestating Grey Knight Dreadknight
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azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote:Probability and statistics have nothing to do with the 30pt chance to bring a well equipped Necronlord back.
Again, I don't think you understand how these things work. 
I concur. I've seen boulders with better comprehesion skills. I feel this is all a waste of time. Though maybe he is right, maybe he has used psychological warfare on us and we are just extra scared because one whole model in his army is 50% less likely to die
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/17 00:17:20
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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NecronLord3 wrote: Godless-Mimicry wrote:NecronLord3 wrote:I play Warhammer, not math hammer. Yor statistical analysis has no practical application
Unless you have a way to influence your dice, the above is impossible. Mathhammer is nothing more than a term to describe how probability and statistics affect games of Warhammer. So unless you are claiming your games are somehow exempt from these fundamental laws then mathhammer is part of your game whether you like it or not. And if you choose to ignore it, that still doesn't make you even remotely close to correct; rolling 3 4+'s in a row is above average luck, and unlikely. You can scream otherwise until you are blue in the face, but in the end it changes nothing.
Probability and statistics have nothing to do with the 30pt chance to bring a well equipped Necronlord back. The psychological effect on your opponent alone, knowing your Warlord is that hard to permentently remove from the game, is worth every point. Does it help your Wraiths out at all, no, but in the hands of a good general the Destroyer Lord is well protected and the Orb helps with those odd situations where your luck just goes south and your lord needs the added protection with a chance of being him back. Mathhammer and actual performance in game play are two completely different things, and not something a simple equation can give you the answer for.
Based on your posts, I get the impression that you do not understand the very basic element of wargaming aka rolling the dice, especially by having a look at your very last sentence. Mathhammer is used to predict the most likely result of something to happen thus statistics and actual performance are as closely bonded together as they could possibly be. Mathhammer cannot say THIS WILL HAPPEN!, it can only say THIS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO HAPPEN".
In the given case, your thought start with a false assumption - you say that the Orb aka spending 30 points gives you a 50% chance to get your lord back. Wrong! It improves your chances for "We will be back" by exactly 1/6 per roll. That's 30 points for a 16% higher chance to let him get up thus statistically, in every 6th game, the orb will come into play. That is the exact reason why you do not take an orb unless your lord stands in a big unit of e.g. Warriors. My blob would never leave home without a Reg Orb. If your lord is alone, though, you spend about 30 points on a unit that's worth about 130-150 points.
Is that really worth it? For you, it looks like it is. That's fine, it's your army, pick it if you want to. Nobody is going to object.
Mathhammer, however, aims at maximizing your army's potential - and the Reg Orb is very situational and on average, a very sub-par item.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/17 01:09:46
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Depraved Slaanesh Chaos Lord
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Godless-Mimicry wrote: azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote:Probability and statistics have nothing to do with the 30pt chance to bring a well equipped Necronlord back.
Again, I don't think you understand how these things work. 
I concur. I've seen boulders with better comprehesion skills. I feel this is all a waste of time. Though maybe he is right, maybe he has used psychological warfare on us and we are just extra scared because one whole model in his army is 50% less likely to die
16.6% less likely to stay dead, actually. The model already had a 33.3% chance with EL on its own. All the orb does is bump the 33.3% up to 50%.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/17 01:16:00
Subject: How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Devestating Grey Knight Dreadknight
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azazel the cat wrote:Godless-Mimicry wrote: azazel the cat wrote:NecronLord3 wrote:Probability and statistics have nothing to do with the 30pt chance to bring a well equipped Necronlord back.
Again, I don't think you understand how these things work. 
I concur. I've seen boulders with better comprehesion skills. I feel this is all a waste of time. Though maybe he is right, maybe he has used psychological warfare on us and we are just extra scared because one whole model in his army is 50% less likely to die
16.6% less likely to stay dead, actually. The model already had a 33.3% chance with EL on its own. All the orb does is bump the 33.3% up to 50%.
I wasn't refering to the Orb alone, just the whole model in comparison to anything we might field against, i.e. which dies the first time every time.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/12/17 01:16:50
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/17 19:39:28
Subject: Re:How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Discriminating Deathmark Assassin
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I'd look into investing in more wraiths - sounds like you have plenty of scarabs. I've found people who have given up on Necrons who are unloading stuff for cheap - that's how I got to 18 wraiths.
I run 2x6 wraiths (with decked out DLs) and 1x10 scarabs followed up by a unit of 3 spyders to feed the small farm. I would prefer going against a dop pod army. Saves me a turn of running across the board  Believe me if a couple of scarabs, one complete unit of wraiths and a partial unit start mixing it up with your opponent it will get messy (termies with shields aside).
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/17 20:01:57
Subject: Re:How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Warp-Screaming Noise Marine
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necron99 wrote:I'd look into investing in more wraiths - sounds like you have plenty of scarabs. I've found people who have given up on Necrons who are unloading stuff for cheap - that's how I got to 18 wraiths.
I run 2x6 wraiths (with decked out DLs) and 1x10 scarabs followed up by a unit of 3 spyders to feed the small farm. I would prefer going against a dop pod army. Saves me a turn of running across the board  Believe me if a couple of scarabs, one complete unit of wraiths and a partial unit start mixing it up with your opponent it will get messy (termies with shields aside).
I'm actually hoping someone has some old metal wraiths for sale, I prefer them over the new plastic models. Where did you purchase your wraiths?
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"Decadence Unbound..."
10,000+
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/17 20:06:54
Subject: Re:How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Devestating Grey Knight Dreadknight
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Riddick40k wrote: necron99 wrote:I'd look into investing in more wraiths - sounds like you have plenty of scarabs. I've found people who have given up on Necrons who are unloading stuff for cheap - that's how I got to 18 wraiths.
I run 2x6 wraiths (with decked out DLs) and 1x10 scarabs followed up by a unit of 3 spyders to feed the small farm. I would prefer going against a dop pod army. Saves me a turn of running across the board  Believe me if a couple of scarabs, one complete unit of wraiths and a partial unit start mixing it up with your opponent it will get messy (termies with shields aside).
I'm actually hoping someone has some old metal wraiths for sale, I prefer them over the new plastic models. Where did you purchase your wraiths?
Ebay is your friend.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2012/12/17 20:10:43
Subject: Re:How to beat drop pod lists with Necrons?
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Discriminating Deathmark Assassin
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Some buddies at my FLGS decided wraiths weren't their thing. Might be able to get some deals on ebay, too.
If your FLGS is laid back enough you could substitute 40mm bases for wraiths. I use them as stand ins when my wraiths are on unlevel ground or need to enter spaces that would be a problem for their size (like ruins and forests). I even made little stickers in and put them on the bases - one says "wraith" and the other says "wraith w/whip". Makes life much easier than spending 5 minutes trying get a 3 inch top heavy model to stand up on a 45 degree incline
That would give you some time to decide if it's worth dumping $150 for another 9 wraiths.
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