Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 Soladrin wrote:
Yeah, it's just the regime that needs to go, the problem is, most of the population are so indoctrinated that it's almost impossible to get a new type of government in there without the people themselves rising up.

I feel like people kinda want to have it both ways regarding the population of the DPRK -- that they're living in fear AND completely brainwashed. I tend to think that most individuals would lean heavily one way or the other (the do-what-they're-tolds versus the true believers), and that fear is the primary motivator at work for a majority of the population.

We know that people try to and succeed in getting smuggled out of that paradise on earth. And while that may be out of a desire to see longlost relatives for some or many, I still think that suggests pretty heavily that they know they're in kind of a hellhole. Maybe they don't quite understand how hellish. And certainly the people would have some hugely difficult adjustments to make in a reunification scenario.

Then again, I remember being taught in school how brainwashed the Soviets were...how the schoolchildren studied their Marx every day and were trained to hate Americans. I'm sure they were taught the reverse, and in some ways it's kind of true, LOL. But all that stuff seemed to melt away pretty quickly once the people there got a taste of a freer lifestyle. Not that some people -- particularly the older ones -- didn't have a hard time adjusting. I'm sure some did, just as some do in China as it rapidly evolves.

But IMO there's a limit to how much that political indoctrination stuff sticks. Most human beings -- at some base, genetic level -- just want to live their lives more or less how they want, and to be able to provide for their families and hopefully have their children live better than they did. They don't really care who's in charge or about the details of the political system, as long as it can provide those things. Look at all the recent changes in the Middle East...at the root of much of that was large, young populations that don't have enough access to good jobs. So I suspect that the citizens of the DPRK would embrace change *far* more than some of you think, even if the reunification process was long, expensive and challenging.

 whembly wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
Just what happens to the world economy if they nuke Tokyo, anyway?

First of all, it'll never get there... second of all.. nuking ANY city would tank the world's economy.

How so?

I mean, any major city for sure. But what about a minor city?

I think that would entirely depend on what city got hit.

Now, a Nuclear War getting started would definitely effect the economy. But not purely because a city got erased. more because we now have a world wide war again.



As for what happens if Tokyo gets nuked, everything related to anime, a large chunk of video games, and the entertainment industry in general takes a major hit.

 Grey Templar wrote:



As for what happens if Tokyo gets nuked, everything related to anime, a large chunk of video games, and the entertainment industry in general takes a major hit.

also porn.

 Easy E wrote:
Typical NK sabre rattling before a UN meeting.

What else can they say to get a reaction at this point?

Kim Jung Un could get up, drop his pants and do the helicopter

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

 Easy E wrote:
Typical NK sabre rattling before a UN meeting.

What else can they say to get a reaction at this point?

Kim Jung Un could get up, drop his pants and do the helicopter

While riding a unicorn. Never forget the Unicorns.

 Soladrin wrote:
Yeah, it's just the regime that needs to go, the problem is, most of the population are so indoctrinated that it's almost impossible to get a new type of government in there without the people themselves rising up.

I recently skimmed over an article in The Economist which suggested that regime change was more possible now then it ever was before. I new class of rich merchants has apparently risen from the vast black markets that have become too important to be closed down, and are basically now seen with legitimacy even by the regime, since they also happen to supply them a lot of goods. Basically, this merchant class is likely to see negatively anything that might close down the borders with China, their biggest point of entry, and actually anything that might mean a loss of revenue, like a war. They are also more likely to have a better understanding of the power balance that exist between them and the surrounding countries (as well as the US), since they more often comes in contact with outsiders. Finally, they are rising in popularity with the people, which might be brainwashed, but is still growing discontent with the inability of the government to keep them fed and warm.

With a bit of luck, we could see a regime change without too many bullets (or nukes) being fired.

Maybe, but I don't see a change without any bullets being fired.

Well there is going to be at least one.

Sorry Kim Jong Un.

 Kovnik Obama wrote:

 Soladrin wrote:
Yeah, it's just the regime that needs to go, the problem is, most of the population are so indoctrinated that it's almost impossible to get a new type of government in there without the people themselves rising up.

I recently skimmed over an article in The Economist which suggested that regime change was more possible now then it ever was before. I new class of rich merchants has apparently risen from the vast black markets that have become too important to be closed down, and are basically now seen with legitimacy even by the regime, since they also happen to supply them a lot of goods. Basically, this merchant class is likely to see negatively anything that might close down the borders with China, their biggest point of entry, and actually anything that might mean a loss of revenue, like a war. They are also more likely to have a better understanding of the power balance that exist between them and the surrounding countries (as well as the US), since they more often comes in contact with outsiders. Finally, they are rising in popularity with the people, which might be brainwashed, but is still growing discontent with the inability of the government to keep them fed and warm.

With a bit of luck, we could see a regime change without too many bullets (or nukes) being fired.

So NK might have a regime change because they got infected with Chinese Capitalism.

What a world.

 Kovnik Obama wrote:
I recently skimmed over an article in The Economist which suggested that regime change was more possible now then it ever was before. I new class of rich merchants has apparently risen from the vast black markets that have become too important to be closed down, and are basically now seen with legitimacy even by the regime, since they also happen to supply them a lot of goods. Basically, this merchant class is likely to see negatively anything that might close down the borders with China, their biggest point of entry, and actually anything that might mean a loss of revenue, like a war. They are also more likely to have a better understanding of the power balance that exist between them and the surrounding countries (as well as the US), since they more often comes in contact with outsiders. Finally, they are rising in popularity with the people, which might be brainwashed, but is still growing discontent with the inability of the government to keep them fed and warm.

With a bit of luck, we could see a regime change without too many bullets (or nukes) being fired.

If true it could even lead to an internal coup.

I suspect that the recent round of saber-rattling is an external manifestation of a whole lot of internal maneuvering going on as Kim Jong Un and his people try to preserve power.

There have to be a couple generals in the bunch who privately think they'd better off without the Kims in charge.

 whembly wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
Just what happens to the world economy if they nuke Tokyo, anyway?

First of all, it'll never get there... second of all.. nuking ANY city would tank the world's economy.

They got a satellite into orbit. Saying "it won't get there" when we're talking about Tokyo, a skip and a jump from North Korea comparatively, seems a bit naive.

And, as has been said, suppose they just smuggle it in in a container? Sure, it won't be as effective as an air burst, but it'll create more fallout. Furthermore, it doesn't really matter if it's inside a ship or not; the heat generated at absolute ground zero will vaporize the immediate surroundings before the blast wave gets there anyway. A 20 kiloton nuclear bomb in Tokyo harbour would be right next door to several million people. Look at what happened to Hiroshima with a 16 kt bomb. Sure, in this example the ~20 kt bomb wouldn't explode at an optimal altitude, there'd be more topographical obstacles and better building standards than back in '45, but it's a 4 kt more powerful bomb right in the heart of one of the most densely populated cities on earth. There is no way it wouldn't be a massive disaster.

"It won't get there" means it will get shot down before it does. Not that it'll fall in the ocean(which is still possible)

 Kovnik Obama wrote:

 Soladrin wrote:
Yeah, it's just the regime that needs to go, the problem is, most of the population are so indoctrinated that it's almost impossible to get a new type of government in there without the people themselves rising up.

I recently skimmed over an article in The Economist which suggested that regime change was more possible now then it ever was before. I new class of rich merchants has apparently risen from the vast black markets that have become too important to be closed down, and are basically now seen with legitimacy even by the regime, since they also happen to supply them a lot of goods. Basically, this merchant class is likely to see negatively anything that might close down the borders with China, their biggest point of entry, and actually anything that might mean a loss of revenue, like a war. They are also more likely to have a better understanding of the power balance that exist between them and the surrounding countries (as well as the US), since they more often comes in contact with outsiders. Finally, they are rising in popularity with the people, which might be brainwashed, but is still growing discontent with the inability of the government to keep them fed and warm.

With a bit of luck, we could see a regime change without too many bullets (or nukes) being fired.

Well, the best outcome would be that this did come to pass but instead of sticking with china they go for a unified Korea. SK would get all the support it would need from the UN to make that happen.

South Korea likely wouldn't get Jack from the UN. Not to mention that South Korea could not just go for instant reunification ala the Germans in 1989. It would literally destroy the nation. All those people who are pretty much insane by our standards allowed to roam around at will? That's a recipe for mass riots looting and murder, especially as if the people who escape to South Korea are any indication, their collective and personal moral compasses are not in line with South Koreas.

Plus there's something like 300 000 commandoes that would be set loose on an unsuspecting population. They would pretty much have to keep the DMZ impassable to stop the mass migration of the norths entire population.

I didn't say it would be an instant thing, you'd have to rehabilitate the entire country for probably decades.

just bomb them qickly and painlessly sick of them and sick of hearing about them.

 Grey Templar wrote:
"It won't get there" means it will get shot down before it does. Not that it'll fall in the ocean(which is still possible)

Given they've fired several missiles through Japanese airspace already, I'm not all that confident about them being intercepted.

 kevlar'o wrote:
just bomb them qickly and painlessly sick of them and sick of hearing about them.

Ugh, why do I have to keep on hearing about Australia? Why can't we just nuke it so that I don't have to hear about it any more?

 Ratbarf wrote:
All those people who are pretty much insane by our standards allowed to roam around at will? That's a recipe for mass riots looting and murder, especially as if the people who escape to South Korea are any indication, their collective and personal moral compasses are not in line with South Koreas.

SK already has a policy of 'we take all comers' and programs of financial support and integration for the NK refugees that manage to pass the lines. And the NK refugees are far from 'insane' from our point of view, they simply have (from what I've been able to see) on average the maturity of a 6-7 year's old. They already know that the 'glorious leader' is a fething bastard. They simply have been so infantilized their whole life that they have a very hard time understanding that they have to take responsibility for their own welfare. It's really, really sad.

Which really makes all the 'nuke them to hell' comments even more disgusting.

 gorgon wrote:
I suspect that the recent round of saber-rattling is an external manifestation of a whole lot of internal maneuvering going on as Kim Jong Un and his people try to preserve power.

There have to be a couple generals in the bunch who privately think they'd better off without the Kims in charge.

They had their 'night of the long knives' some months ago now - lots of top generals/military types and other notables went missing, got moved sideways into other jobs etc. The most notable of those was the much publicised artillery-shelling of one supposed traitor against Kim Jong Un.

Of course, the whole 'single leader' thing conceals a vipers nest of different power-players within the administration - headed by Kim's aunt, who apparently pulled the strings after Kim Jong Il become practically mentally handicapped after his penultimate stroke, and you have to think still holds significant power now.

I made a bet with a friend while I was living in SK that Kim Jong Un wouldn't live to see his 5-year anniversary of rulership - now I'm thinking it may have been a bit optimistic, a bit too hopeful that the country would start on the road of pulling itself out by its boot-straps, but those in power have confirmed their own positions and murdered or deposed anyone who might have posed a threat to them. Not to say of course that some kind of revolution won't happen - perhaps somewhat ironically, it might well be China that ends up being the one responsible, away from any veiled threats of military action by Washington's hawks. They are investing significantly in NK's infrastructure and technological development (recently selling some hundreds of thousands of cell phones and satellite dishes to NK) - by themselves these things are already serving to open the door to the outside world a crack (with SK TV shows being the main things viewed apparently), but more generally the problem for despotic regimes such as NK is that to maintain such infrastructure, to develop an economy, you need an educated class - and history has proven that this is the demographic that those who bring in the revolution will come from. Ultimately, I think it might take time, but there is only so long that you can keep a plate spinning on the end of a stick.

I still think that ultimately the country will be re-united. They are a single race, they've got 2000 years of history, and what happened to them 50 years ago is an absolute travesty - I think it's still so firmly engrained of the cultural memory of Koreans that they know they will never go to war again, no matter how many 'Cheonan's' get sunk, no matter how many times the North says it will turn Seoul into a sea of fire, no matter how many joint military war games the US and SK play around with on the border. They know the cost is too high, which is why I said in the other thread that it will take the biggest of misfortunes (or accidents) for a war to take place.

 Soladrin wrote:
Yeah, it's just the regime that needs to go, the problem is, most of the population are so indoctrinated that it's almost impossible to get a new type of government in there without the people themselves rising up.

It is something of a popular myth that they're all brainwashed true believers. As Kovnik Obama said, there is a lot of trade with China - the isolation of NK is at the formal, national level, at the individual level the borders are quite porous. They're not idiots.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Grey Templar wrote:
Maybe, but I don't see a change without any bullets being fired.

Maybe there'll be bullets, but maybe not. Just outright saying there has to be shows a complete indifference to modern political history. The 20th century is full of stories of totalitarian regimes being overthrown without blood.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Ratbarf wrote:
South Korea likely wouldn't get Jack from the UN. Not to mention that South Korea could not just go for instant reunification ala the Germans in 1989. It would literally destroy the nation. All those people who are pretty much insane by our standards allowed to roam around at will? That's a recipe for mass riots looting and murder, especially as if the people who escape to South Korea are any indication, their collective and personal moral compasses are not in line with South Koreas.

And now instead of being impoverished victims of a totalitarian regime they've become amoral lunatics who loot and murder? Where the hell do you get this stuff?

A) They're incredibly desperate.
B) They're incredibly hungry.
C) The only reason they haven't torn apart the current regime is the amount of terror and brutality that the regime employs. If that were to be removed I don't see how they can be controlled aside from martial law.
D) There is a large number of relatively skilful military types who I don't think would bat an eyelash at murder or theft.
E) I'm assuming you've listened to some of the escapees? Their moral compass is so far out of whack it's scary and depressing.

An attempt at immediate unrestricted re-unification would pretty much be ruinous for the South Koreans. Think along the lines of mass Barbarian migrations. They're hungry, militarized, somewhat ammoral, and there's millions of them.

Sure the North Korean have got nukes, but since their army only has tech from the 60s, I don't think their going to be a threat to international security any time soon.
Last year for example they launched a "research satellite" (*cough* test missile *cough*) into space. Only it didn't so much launch as crash and burnt into the sea 20 kms from the korean mainland.
These guys have got nukes sure, but they don't have any means of delivering them anywhere. If they try, chances are their gonna shoot themselves in the foot, and by shoot i mean nuke.

 kronk wrote:
Bad things.

But worst would be the birth of Godzilla.

OK, that's worth an exalt.

 Novelist47 wrote:
Sure the North Korean have got nukes, but since their army only has tech from the 60s, I don't think their going to be a threat to international security any time soon.
Last year for example they launched a "research satellite" (*cough* test missile *cough*) into space. Only it didn't so much launch as crash and burnt into the sea 20 kms from the korean mainland.
These guys have got nukes sure, but they don't have any means of delivering them anywhere. If they try, chances are their gonna shoot themselves in the foot, and by shoot i mean nuke.

Are you ready? This cat is ready:

North Korea really needs its meds.

 Ratbarf wrote:
A) They're incredibly desperate.
B) They're incredibly hungry.
C) The only reason they haven't torn apart the current regime is the amount of terror and brutality that the regime employs. If that were to be removed I don't see how they can be controlled aside from martial law.
D) There is a large number of relatively skilful military types who I don't think would bat an eyelash at murder or theft.
E) I'm assuming you've listened to some of the escapees? Their moral compass is so far out of whack it's scary and depressing.

An attempt at immediate unrestricted re-unification would pretty much be ruinous for the South Koreans. Think along the lines of mass Barbarian migrations. They're hungry, militarized, somewhat ammoral, and there's millions of them.

This.

You have a completely uneducated mass of citizenry whose spent the last 60 years doing everything possible just to survive. Reunification would be disasterous for S. Korea. They'd suddenly be responsible for the welfare of a class of citizens who could do nothing at all outside of the most basic of menial labor. Their economy would take a massive hit. As I understand it, the best thing for S. Korea would be to maintain the status quo.

 Ratbarf wrote:
A) They're incredibly desperate.
B) They're incredibly hungry.
C) The only reason they haven't torn apart the current regime is the amount of terror and brutality that the regime employs. If that were to be removed I don't see how they can be controlled aside from martial law.
D) There is a large number of relatively skilful military types who I don't think would bat an eyelash at murder or theft.

But we know what happens when very desperate, very hungry people witness their brutal regimes collapse around them. There's maybe a dozen examples from Africa, and another half dozen from Europe just in the last century. And in not one case what the answer rampant looting and murder. It was really big refugee camps, where looting, murder and rape did tragically take place, it was entirely focussed on other victims of the old regime.

Which, if nothing else, is just plain common sense. I mean, if you're desperate enough, or just plain enough of an donkey-cave that you want to sieze the chance to loot, murder and rape, why pick on the people who still have a social order, still have police and security? Anyone with half a brain is going to pick on the helpless lady in the tent three rows across.

E) I'm assuming you've listened to some of the escapees? Their moral compass is so far out of whack it's scary and depressing.

And I'm assuming you've listened to people who grew up in the Belgian Congo. Or say, Nazi Germany? And yet...


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 djones520 wrote:
This.

You have a completely uneducated mass of citizenry whose spent the last 60 years doing everything possible just to survive. Reunification would be disasterous for S. Korea. They'd suddenly be responsible for the welfare of a class of citizens who could do nothing at all outside of the most basic of menial labor. Their economy would take a massive hit. As I understand it, the best thing for S. Korea would be to maintain the status quo.

Yeah, that's the best short term thing for South Korea. German re-unification was a nightmare, and East Germany has nothing on North Korea.

Point being no-one on Earth believes the current situation is sustainable, long term. Sooner or later North Korea will change massively from what it is today. The odds of North Korea reforming into something closer to a viable nation without massive South Korean influence and dollars is extremely remote.

It may be simplistic, but i think there is one solution to north Korea, open up their markets.

I fail to see how isolating a country and cutting off wealth generation will bring an already isolated country to heel. Why not remove the sanctions, let them trade, have diplomacy and let them see that life is better in other countries. A regime can stop people talking but it cannot stop them forever.

Let us recall how wacky china used to be, and now, no longer is the sparrow hunted with a wok and spoon.

I find it rather worrying that people from a country who make such a big deal out of the world trade centre , can be so blase about nuking a country.