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GW global revenue compared with known tournament participation levels. I did the math a while back, and nothing suggests that things have changed.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
GW global revenue compared with known tournament participation levels. I did the math a while back, and nothing suggests that things have changed.

Is that taking into account small local tournaments which I imagine are the bread and butter of organized play.
Also, is that taking into account people who buy with the intention of tournament play?
What about people that don't go to tournaments but still play competitively on the local scene?

There are too many holes in your method to make an accurate guesstimate.

The financial results speak for themselves, that GW abandoned tournament support and competitive play, and has not been compelled to return. If tournaments and competitive play actually left a lot of money on the table, GW wouldn't pass it by.

Or are you saying that money-grubbing GW is somehow principled about the way they walked way from the tournament scene? That they burned their boats and won't ever go back?

Because that is completely unlike the GW that I'm aware of.

 MWHistorian wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
People grossly underestimate how much it is being played. These forums consistently believe that competitive play is a significant portion of GW revenue and play, say 20%, 30%, or more. In reality, the numbers clearly demonstrate that it's more like 1% or 2%. The forums are loud, but meaningless. That's why GW canned their forums and stopped supporting competitive play.

I'd like to see where you get those numbers.

Same place GW got there "Only 20% of our customers play the game"....

Everyone knows 45.4563% of statistics are made up on the spot.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
The financial results speak for themselves, that GW abandoned tournament support and competitive play, and has not been compelled to return. If tournaments and competitive play actually left a lot of money on the table, GW wouldn't pass it by.

That is a massive assumption.

For starters GW's revenue has been going down lately.

Also how do you propose tournament attendance is supposed to directly effect revenue/profit?

Are you talking tourneys everywhere or just US? Official GW events or independent.

You said you did the math a while back, how long? GWs most recent financial reports (even from just the last year) would likely impact this greatly.

GW have burnt their boats and walked away as far as many competitive gamers are concerned and that should be obvious just from the reactions here on the AoS forum alone, their rules for both core games are no longer conducive to competitive play without houseruling.

I'd be really interested in looking at the math if you still have it around, but I doubt it is as simple as you made it sound.

It's almost certainly the most accurate thing in this entire thread. GW is nothing if not mercenary. Their actions speak very clearly on this point - GW will do anything for an extra dollar, ethical or otherwise. We've seen this countless times over the years, squeezing every penny out of the player base. If GW thought they could extract net financial gain out of tournament / competitive play, they would do that in a heartbeat.

At the time, it was probably right after GW pulled the plug on tournament support, and the tournament players themselves were talking about how they spent $100s to support the hobby.

But it's not like we can't do a quick calculation here. Simply assume a $1000 USD annual revenue per player out of the purported 20% global revenue impact.

For 2014, GW says they had 123.5M GBP full year revenue. 20% of that would be 25M GBP. At GW rates, that's $40M USD. If you assume the $1k USD annual spend for each of them, that's 40,000 different tournament players. Assume that consider that these are all supported by stores with super-healthy events of 20 players each - are there 2,000 such stores in the world?

Note that a smaller per-player impact means you need even more tournament players to get the same effect. And if you start bringing down the revenue point, you quickly reach a point at which GW doesn't have to care about losing the revenue.

That's why this kind of calculation is pretty easy.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
It's almost certainly the most accurate thing in this entire thread. GW is nothing if not mercenary. Their actions speak very clearly on this point - GW will do anything for an extra dollar, ethical or otherwise. We've seen this countless times over the years, squeezing every penny out of the player base. If GW thought they could extract net financial gain out of tournament / competitive play, they would do that in a heartbeat.

Incompetence explains this away quite easily.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
At the time, it was probably right after GW pulled the plug on tournament support, and the tournament players themselves were talking about how they spent $100s to support the hobby.

But it's not like we can't do a quick calculation here. Simply assume a $1000 USD annual revenue per player out of the purported 20% global revenue impact.

Ok you lost me already, why are you assuming $1000 USD, did you take this from anywhere? And where has the 20% of global revenue come from? The only thing I can think of that is 20% is when GW say that only 20% of customers play the game, but playing the game is very different from being a tourney player, and even then that is 20% of customers, not 20% of revenue.

 Grimtuff wrote:

 MWHistorian wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
People grossly underestimate how much it is being played. These forums consistently believe that competitive play is a significant portion of GW revenue and play, say 20%, 30%, or more. In reality, the numbers clearly demonstrate that it's more like 1% or 2%. The forums are loud, but meaningless. That's why GW canned their forums and stopped supporting competitive play.

I'd like to see where you get those numbers.

Same place GW got there "Only 20% of our customers play the game"....

Everyone knows 45.4563% of statistics are made up on the spot.

And here you go. Discussion closed, really.

GW and accurate numbers = no. They don't want it, as they know it will never make them look good. Unless someone has all the numbers of all the tournaments played worldwide AND access to the accurate numbers GW refuses to provide their own shareholders.... good luck with those... "numbers".

How was it... otiose, right?

GW used to run a lot of tournaments. They started in the mid-1980s and gave it up about three or four years ago.

JohHwangDD is correct that GW want everything they do to turn a profit directly. This is why they don't do marketing and advertising. The fact they gave up tournaments probably means they weren't making money off them. GW don not have the mental picutre of their business as being to provide an overall welcoming, interesting wargame envireonment which attracts a lot of players who then buy stuff.

However, since GW stopped doing tournaments their sales have gone into a continuous slide. I don't think tournaments are the only reason for this, but perhaps it contributes. We cannot know for sure. They gave up shows as well, and changed to one-man shops too. The main factor in my view was doubling the price of rules.

Indeed, GW's revenue has been declining steadily for over a decade at this point, and while one can understand the costs of running events, the general withdrawal from contact with the customer base in general, coupled with the vast increases in prices over that same time period, have certainly not appeared to turn anything around. GW appears to have very little idea of what their actual customers want/do with their products.

They've opened up their profit margins a bit (even with declining revenue) relative to say, 2008 or so, but those changes aren't really repeatable (you can only change store formats and force everyone to replace their paint stocks so many times) and don't seem to set them up for any sort of future success, or to do anything about that long-term revenue decline.

That said, when the CEO for many years was also the Chairman and one of the largest shareholders, it's not hard to see how long-term "good for the company" responses may not be what is actually carried out when said person's personal income so heavily derived from short term dividend payments and retirement age is near

I don't know I agree with the theory that Kirby wants the company to burn but get as much out of it as possible before he retires. He has got a lot out of it, for sure, but if the company continues to be successful, he can go on getting more out by dividends even after fully retiring.

In my view, the problem with GW is that they have a group think culture. It's perfectly obvious from their job advertising that they want people who will toe the company line. Lots of staff are internally promoted, like their Head of IP, and Head of IT, leading to serious disasters in these specialist areas because these people were loyal to the management but had no relevant knowledge.

Everyone moving in time is fine as long as the company line of advance goes down the road of success, but that involves understanding customers. The evidence of the past 10 years is that GW got much more efficient at running the business and much less effective.

It seems to me that GW simply did not understand their customers when they released AoS. It could have been added to the product line-up instead of replacing Fantasy.

I don't say this as an ex-Fantasy player who feels slighted and discarded. I stopped playing Fantasy in about 1985.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I don't know I agree with the theory that Kirby wants the company to burn but get as much out of it as possible before he retires.

I didn't meant to imply he wanted the company to burn, rather that many decisions appeared to be made to maximize benefit to himself, that aren't necessarily the best for the long term health of the organization (e.g. borrowing money to pay dvidends) but aren't necessarily being maliciously done either.

In my view, the problem with GW is that they have a group think culture. It's perfectly obvious from their job advertising that they want people who will toe the company line. Lots of staff are internally promoted, like their Head of IP, and Head of IT, leading to serious disasters in these specialist areas because these people were loyal to the management but had no relevant knowledge.

Indeed, and that appears to be strangling them in many ways. One very much gets the impression that there's no dissent tolerated regarding management decisions and that heads roll fairly quickly if they aren't followed.

Everyone moving in time is fine as long as the company line of advance goes down the road of success, but that involves understanding customers. The evidence of the past 10 years is that GW got much more efficient at running the business and much less effective.

It seems to me that GW simply did not understand their customers when they released AoS. It could have been added to the product line-up instead of replacing Fantasy.

I don't say this as an ex-Fantasy player who feels slighted and discarded. I stopped playing Fantasy in about 1985.

I haven't played a game of Fantasy either in years. I liked the End Times storyline stuff, but the rules changes were a bit ridiculous to follow, and AoS just has zero appeal to me.

I would fully agree that GW just doesn't appear to understand their customers at all. Evidence for that is pretty rife, people have been screaming for 40k CSM Legion & Cult unit rules for 8 years now, and despite the fact that it would be a license to print money, they seemingly insist on releasing stuff nobody asked for or cares about like the Crimson Slaughter book (who's primary attraction was that it allowed CSM's to get access to Divination for power purposes).

I was talking with my FLGS manager today, and asked about AoS, and they haven't moved anything in almost a month except a couple of the Chaos kits as 40k proxies for KDK armies.

It just really feels like that have no concept of their market, and their declining revenue really reflects that.

I haven't spent any money on GW products since AoS came out. Last thing I bought was the Skaven end times book and the Thanqoul and Boneripper model.

I'm sad to see AoS really because I love big block armies :( I haven't even painted very much (basically none) since AoS came out.

Might pick up some individual models from the starter off eBay though that hellcat thing looks appealing to me as an empire standin (for my empire army I barely have haha)

So far, I've bought:

- the starter set
- the Age of Sigmar... rulebook? The first book.
- Skorne Bloodguy or whatever his name is
- a Lord Castellant
- a Judicator unit
- an Exalted Deathbringer
- the first fiction book
- a Garden of Morr

That's got to be about $500, right?

I guess the poll gets a bit different if you're using Australian prices.

I've spent well over a grand, maybe even close to two. I had ZERO interest in fantasy before AoS dropped and since its came out I've bought 4 different armies. Its dropped off recently though as I've been playing infinity but ill be back into AoS fairly soon

I guess i can say i spent about thirty five dollars know. Because I bought the guy that comes with the gryph hound, for the gryph hound.

I have a vague idea that if I ever did somehow get a small stormcast force, i would give every guy a pet. I've got some little dogs from some set or other, and some skeleton rat dogs...

Stormcast Peternals.

I bought both source books and about 40 bucks worth of round bases, though some of those will end up on 40k models.

I just didnt know what sizes I would need, so I just bought a ton of the larger sized bases.

I bought the starter set. And I've picked up some standard Warhammer models for use in WHFB 6th, 8th, 9th age and KoW. And AoS, but they'll be on square bases so they're useful in all games.

I don't know how much I have spent, but I recently realised I am almost at the end of what I need to buy...

My shopping list contains:
10x Skeleton Warriors (or Grave Guard)
1x Gyrocopter (Duardin)
1x box of Iron Drakes/Iron Breakers
1x Grim Burlokkson

And 1x 4ft by 4ft "Grassy Meadows" battle mat from gamemat.eu

At this point I will have 4 AoS armies under the School League rules (Empire, Dwarfs, Vampire Counts & Night Goblins), a 4ft battle board and full terrain covering it!

Cannot wait to be in that position. Getting them all painted is another story :-p

Zero dollars. I have several armies that I was working on previously, slowly buying and painting stuff for them. My purchasing got put on hold when End Times looked like it might be the end and I haven't purchased anything since.

I'm tossing up buying a few boxes of models just to finish off the WHFB armies I already have, though it seems a bit pointless now as I don't imagine it will be easy finding a game.

AoS holds no interest for me. Not remotely interested in a fantasy skirmish game with simple but flawed rules.

Nothing spent on AoS here but my wife just fleshed out her wood elves, I have just dropped a load on night goblins and my brother in law just got some dwarfs all for 8th before they get canned.

I wonder how may others are doing the same.

I spend around 150€ to start the Ogre army I always wanted, but never did because I didn't like the WHFB system. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm glad WHFB turned into AoS (game system wise, don't like the lore).

Daston wrote:
Nothing spent on AoS here but my wife just fleshed out her wood elves, I have just dropped a load on night goblins and my brother in law just got some dwarfs all for 8th before they get canned.

I wonder how may others are doing the same.

Quite a few people, from what I gather. A lot of FB players have hurried to finish up their collections before the models eventually go OOP

Yeah I stripped a whole metal army of 1988-1993 dwarves on the basis of 9th edition dropping. I mean they were poorly painted so needed doing anyway but I'm now in a quandary as to how to base them,

As for AoS spend; Probably a hundred quid.

Starter box, Bloodreaver Box and a couple of packs of round bases.

I've spent a considerable amount on AoS. I just have the starter box, but having been out of the mini hobby for a decade or more, I needed a bunch of tools and paints. Primer alone took some doing, as I tried multiple types before finding one that worked in 70%+ humidity. I also bought the two campaign books, and a bunch of terrain (gates, archway, woods, overlord bastion). So, I've probably put about $500 in AoS and still haven't bought a second box of models... yet.

Daston wrote:
Nothing spent on AoS here but my wife just fleshed out her wood elves, I have just dropped a load on night goblins and my brother in law just got some dwarfs all for 8th before they get canned.

I wonder how may others are doing the same.

Yeah, I've been browsing lots of second hand stuff, looking for things that I've always wanted but never got the chance. I've picked up some ogres, a few warriors of chaos... No matter where things go, I'll find some game to play them in.

I spent something like $4-6 for a bit to use on my Rhino to make it a Company Relic.

 toasteroven wrote:

Daston wrote:
Nothing spent on AoS here but my wife just fleshed out her wood elves, I have just dropped a load on night goblins and my brother in law just got some dwarfs all for 8th before they get canned.

I wonder how may others are doing the same.

Yeah, I've been browsing lots of second hand stuff, looking for things that I've always wanted but never got the chance. I've picked up some ogres, a few warriors of chaos... No matter where things go, I'll find some game to play them in.

Same boat here. I definitely want to see if I can snag some deals on an empire/lizardmen/vampire counts army and of course more skaven stuff (not that I need it but I want it lol)

I think people are trying to get out of the game now so trying to sell for cheaper since AoS isn't really all that great.
Tempted to pick up some stuff straight from GW for the fine cast stuff but unsure

I voted $100 - $150 because I included paints. Several of the paints I already had, but I grouped them in anyway.

Considering I'd really like to play the Lightning Strikes Battleplan with the Thunderhead Brotherhood Battalion, I might be dropping another $100 soon on a couple of boxes of Judicators.

SG

$10 - on paints... Evil GW store employe gave me a free mini.... Well played GW. Well played indeed.

Never cared for any fantasy system. However, AoS is getting back into the hobby: modeling, painting, and playing.