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2015/11/26 17:02:44
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
Iron_Captain wrote: 17 seconds is not really enough to hear a warning, even if any were send or received at all.
Turkey says they issued warnings before the border was crossed. Again, not sure why the 17 seconds is the hand up.
Because you are supposed to send a warning AFTER the border has been crossed, not before. You can't warn them for doing perfectly legitimate things. At most you can alert them to the fact that they will end up in Turkish airspace if they do not change heading, but you are not authorised to tell them to change their heading or basically anything, because they are not in your airspace yet. Protocol demands that after a foreign aircraft strays into your airspace, you first try to establish contact by radio or signals. If that fails, you may fire warning shots. If that does not make the aircraft turn around or land, you may shoot it down. Such a procedure is not possible in 17 seconds.
Pots and kettles, comrade, pots and kettles... Western media, like any media really, is notoriously unreliable. I could just post Russian (heck, even Western)media here saying thatRussia does hit ISIS, and it would be just as reliable. But you probably won't be convinced by it, because as soon as there is something even slightly positive about Russia, it must be Russian propaganda.
But as much as I enjoy these arguments, I think you should now just admit that your claim that Russia does not target ISIS at all is false. Even the US government admits that Russia does hit ISIS, even if the main priority of Russian airstrikes were more strategic targets of other terrorist groups.
I have a hard time believing Syria has supported and backed jihadists for 50 years.
Syria has been on the US' list of state sponsors of terrorism since 1979 (36 years).Granted, our list is pretty selective, namely that countries we back who support terror aren't on it *glares at Lebanon, Turkey, and kinda-sorta Jordan* Syria has been a supporter of terrorist groups in Palestine almost as long as the Israel-Palestine conflict has been a thing (long before the Ba'athists or the Al Assad family came to power). There's probably some irony that the Ba'athists were themselves a quasi-Jihadist group once upon a time. First the PLO, then Hamas and Islamic Jihad after the PLO fell out of favor. They were major backers of Hezbollah back in the 60's, though that relationship went sour somewhere along the like cause Hezbollah jumped into the Anti-Assad band wagon really quick. They supported Al Qaeda in its early yeas back in the 80's and trained insurgent fighters who fought the Coalition in the Iraq War.
The Ba'athists and PLO were jihadists? One learns something new every day.
You've got a lot of history to catch up on Captain (actually some good reading). Jihadists have been around for ages (we just haven't always called them such). The Khawarij in the 7th century (like literally as soon as Islam got started this gak was going on ), the Ḥashshāshīn in 11-14th, the Fula Jihads in the 19th century (in West Africa, yeah, Boko Haram isn't very original), and even the immediate reaction to the Caucasian War involved the formation of a Jihadist resistance.
Now, Global Jihadism is very new (the furthest back it can be realistically traced in the late 80's). Prior to that, these movements tended to be very regional and more often than not a little if not very ethnic. Modern Jihad is Pan-Arab/Pan-Islamist in tone and is a very recent shift in these kinds of groups.
Jihadism refers to the modern movement. Jihad and islamic extremism did exist before that, but jihadism and the kind of radical islam we see nowadays is really a new development. It is a whole new concept of defensive jihad that just did not exist in Islamic theology previously.
The main issue is that Turkey is the primary source for foreign fighters joining ISIS. Virtually all of them travel to Syria through Turkey, and Turkey does absolutely zero to stop them.
One, this is no longer true. The US put pressure on Turkey last year and the flow of fighters has been reduced.
And is there any (non-Turkish government) source for that? It is not until this summer that Turkey started to to something about its borders, after ISIS killed a few Turkish soldiers. Regardless, there is a lot of evidence that Turkey supported ISIS until then: http://dogueroglu.com/turkish-jihadist-reveals-how-ankara-turned-a-blind-eye-to-isis/
That is why there are customs that may not have any rules, but are still adhered to in order to avoid conflict between countries.
Pretty sure arming rebel groups and then annexing another country's territory is one of those (which just goes back to the whole hypocrisy part of this).
Sometimes countries do want conflict. And yes, everything is wonderfully hypocritical nowadays, I blame postmodernism
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2015/11/26 17:05:44
Error 404: Interesting signature not found
2015/11/26 17:25:27
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
I think that all jets should have proper recording going on at all times.
A go-pro in the cockpit if nothing else.
The Turkish should have buzzed the Russian Jet, before firing.
I did blame Russia to begin with but there's too much misinformation.
If you're going to shoot down a nations jet, especially from somewhere like Russia, then you need to have corroborating data that is beyond reproach.
Everyone knows that the Russian jet wasn't a real threat and having two F16s following it would be enough to deal with it should they have to.
The Russia antagonised Turkey with repeated infractions and I believe Turkey were looking to make a point.
I don't believe it was entirely premeditated but I do think they were looking to make a statement to Russia.
Russia does do this kind of thing deliberately.
From a UK point of view, Russia frequently flies Nuclear bombers towards the edge of our airspace. They are intercepted by RAF Typhoons and then escorted until they change course. They have never entered UK airspace as far as I am aware. I don't know if they're warned to change course but it is international airspace so they can really do what they want until the enter our territory.
I don't know why Russia does this to the UK. I know US does it to Russia too and we're US allies.
The main problem with what the Russians do is that they fly without their transponder turned on through the most busy airspace in the world, they will cause an accident with an airliner one day doing that.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2015/11/26 17:27:18
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2015/11/26 17:43:22
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
Well its believe Turkey or the guys who said they weren't in crimera, then weren't in donbass, who totally didn't supply the BUK to the russian rebels, and who are only targeting ISIS in syria. I don't know maybe some people actually believe russia is credible
Then why people believe the Turks are credible? After all, they are the people who totally didn't massacre the Armenians, no? No. Never happened. No genocide. All lies. Turks always tell truth.
Seriously, all politicians lie. All countries deceive. Russia is not any less or more reliable than any other country on earth.
In that case then the warnings are only background noise, as any operation near the border would be spammed by warning messages from Turkey.
"We heard your warnings and ignored them" sounds like a poor excuse.
17 seconds is not really enough to hear a warning, even if any were send or received at all.
LordofHats wrote: Russia has ignored Daesh while bombing Syrian Opposition forces. While supporting a guy who has trained, supplied, and back Jihadists and Islamists for ten years, leading a state that's been doing it for over 50 years
Sources for that, please. Russia ignoring ISIS is a blatant lie, and I have a hard time believing Syria has supported and backed jihadists for 50 years. Jihadism hasn't even been around that long.
LordofHats wrote: and who is himself directly buying ISIS oil, and giving ISIS weapons and supplies to attack the Kurds and Syrian Opposition Forces. But wait, isn't that all the stuff Russia says make's Turkey evil? Wouldn't that make Russia evil too? So they're both evil and just having a pissing match with each other?
The main issue is that Turkey is the primary source for foreign fighters joining ISIS. Virtually all of them travel to Syria through Turkey, and Turkey does absolutely zero to stop them.
EDIT: also the people is so hung about this because airspace violations are common and countries almost never shoot down the offending plane.
Sounds like splitting hairs. I'm unaware of the "It happens all the time" rule in matters of National Sovereignty.
You will find that there are very little rules at all regarding national sovereignty, since the whole thing with national sovereignty is that countries can do whatever they damn well want within their own territory. That however does not mean that other countries will like that, and angry neighbours are not a good thing. That is why there are customs that may not have any rules, but are still adhered to in order to avoid conflict between countries.
Did russia ever take blame for the pogroms and the purges? russia has less credibility than most countries right now and is acting hypocritical at every turn.
But as much as I enjoy these arguments, I think you should now just admit that your claim that Russia does not target ISIS at all is false. Even the US government admits that Russia does hit ISIS, even if the main priority of Russian airstrikes were more strategic targets of other terrorist groups.
Be fair in your argument, right where you quoted, he says that they do target ISIS. Not "not at all". Just not as much as they target Syrian opposition forces.
And yeah, Jihadism is a relatively new thing.
Also, can someone actually post the protocols for airspace violation? Can they just shoot you down immediately, or do they HAVE to follow the prior steps?
Is it a case of "technically we can shoot you down, but what most people do to avoid unpleasant incidents is follow all these courtesy steps, but today we're going to be unpleasant"?
This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2015/11/26 21:01:12
Prestor Jon wrote: Because children don't have any legal rights until they're adults. A minor is the responsiblity of the parent and has no legal rights except through his/her legal guardian or parent.
2015/11/26 21:44:22
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
Seems someone had time to have a little fun over this mess
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/11/26 21:44:43
"Your mumblings are awakening the sleeping Dragon, be wary when meddling the affairs of Dragons, for thou art tasty and go good with either ketchup or chocolate. "
Dragons fear nothing, if it acts up, we breath magic fire that turns them into marshmallow peeps. We leaguers only cry rivets!
2015/11/26 22:04:04
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
But as much as I enjoy these arguments, I think you should now just admit that your claim that Russia does not target ISIS at all is false. Even the US government admits that Russia does hit ISIS, even if the main priority of Russian airstrikes were more strategic targets of other terrorist groups.
Be fair in your argument, right where you quoted, he says that they do target ISIS. Not "not at all". Just not as much as they target Syrian opposition forces.
At first he said that "Russia ignores Daesh". That is not true. But maybe I read to much into it?
MrDwhitey wrote: Also, can someone actually post the protocols for airspace violation? Can they just shoot you down immediately, or do they HAVE to follow the prior steps?
Is it a case of "technically we can shoot you down, but what most people do to avoid unpleasant incidents is follow all these courtesy steps, but today we're going to be unpleasant"?
Its NATO protocols (I don't know if they are on the internet somewhere, just that they get mentioned in articles a lot). It is not rules. Every nation is allowed to do whatever it wants to do to defend its airspace under the principle of national sovereignty. So they are guidelines really. But guidelines are very important nonetheless to avoid war. Because just like Turkey has the right to defend its airspace, Russia has the right to retaliate if it is attacked.
Error 404: Interesting signature not found
2015/11/26 22:13:52
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
But as much as I enjoy these arguments, I think you should now just admit that your claim that Russia does not target ISIS at all is false.
If you don't like it, feel free to write Putin. I'd love for Russia and Turkey to stop this nonsense (not the jet thing, the "we're fighting ISIS but not really" thing). It's just making things worse.
The Ba'athists and PLO were jihadists? One learns something new every day.
And you wonder why I doubt Russian media.
The Ba'athists I described as 'quasi' Jihadist. I chose that word because their philosophy wasn't quite Jihadist, but in the early days before they had any political power, their ideology basically replaced the word "Islam" with "Pan-Arab" and a whole heaping helping of "How awesome is Islam, right?" Then they got political power and busied themselves using chemical weapons on Kurds, supporting terrorist organizations, and invading poor little Kuwait (who wouldn't harm a fly!).
I'm not really sure why it would need to be explained that the PLO was a Jihadist organization. Israel-Palestine Conflict and the Lebanese Civil War (both of which the PLO/PLA were very involved in) are the two conflicts that helped these groups transition from being regional to global terror threats.
Jihadism refers to the modern movement. Jihad and islamic extremism did exist before that, but jihadism and the kind of radical islam we see nowadays is really a new development. It is a whole new concept of defensive jihad that just did not exist in Islamic theology previously.
Really no. Same old stuff that's been going on over there for hundreds of years. Things don't suddenly come into existence the moment the Western world realizes they exist (unless we want to get philosophical about reality and perception that is).
On the first: It does seem to many that Russia is mostly ignoring ISIS, but that's mostly. Not entirely, and that's the position taken by LoH.
Latter: So it is the courtesy thing to avoid unpleasantness, including wars. I can understand your position that they should have done things differently (the normal way) to avoid the current escalation of tensions.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2015/11/26 22:21:47
Prestor Jon wrote: Because children don't have any legal rights until they're adults. A minor is the responsiblity of the parent and has no legal rights except through his/her legal guardian or parent.
2015/11/26 22:26:48
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
I was being hyperbolic because the poster I responded to said the same about Turkey; Turkey is also bombing ISIS.
The accusation is that neither Turkey nor Russia are really in it to fight ISIS. Any support they give on that front is token, while Turkey continues it's little war against the Kurds and Assad and Russia bombs Syrian Opposition Forces.
I was being hyperbolic because the poster I responded to said the same about Turkey; Turkey is also bombing ISIS.
The accusation is that neither Turkey nor Russia are really in it to fight ISIS. Any support they give on that front is token, while Turkey continues it's little war against the Kurds and Assad and Russia bombs Syrian Opposition Forces.
'Why down Russian jet? Because fighting ISIS is not really on Turkey's agenda'
‘Commercial scale’ oil smuggling into Turkey becomes priority target of anti-ISIS strikes
https://www.rt.com/news/323603-isis-oil-smuggling-turkey/ Islamic State’s daring and impudent oil smuggling into Turkey should become a high-priority target in order to cripple the terrorist group, President Putin said, backed by French President Francois Hollande. Both agree that the source of terrorist financing must be hit first and foremost. Commercial-scale oil smuggling from Islamic State controlled territory into Turkey must be stopped, Putin said after meeting Hollande in Moscow.
“Vehicles, carrying oil, lined up in a chain going beyond the horizon,” said Putin, reminding the press that the scale of the issue was discussed at the G20 summit in Antalya earlier this month, where the Russian leader demonstrated reconnaissance footage taken by Russian pilots.
The views resemble a “living oil pipe” stretched from ISIS and rebel controlled areas of Syria into Turkey, the Russian President stressed. “Day and night they are going to Turkey. Trucks always go there loaded, and back from there – empty.”
Meet The Man Who Funds ISIS: Bilal Erdogan, The Son Of Turkey's President http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-25/meet-man-who-funds-isis-bilal-erdogan-son-turkeys-president
Spoiler:
In the next few days, we will present a full breakdown of Bilal's various business ventures, starting with his BMZ Group which is the name implicated most often in the smuggling of illegal Iraqi and Islamic State through to the western supply chain, but for now here is a brief, if very disturbing snapshot, of both father and son Erdogan by F. William Engdahl, one which should make everyone ask whether the son of Turkey's president (and thus, the father) is the silent mastermind who has been responsible for converting millions of barrels of Syrian Oil into hundreds of millions of dollars of Islamic State revenue.
By F. William Engdahl, posted originally in New Eastern Outlook:
Erdogan's Dirth Dangerous ISIS Games
More and more details are coming to light revealing that the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, variously known as ISIS, IS or Daesh, is being fed and kept alive by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President and by his Turkish intelligence service, including MIT, the Turkish CIA. Turkey, as a result of Erdogan’s pursuit of what some call a Neo-Ottoman Empire fantasies that stretch all the way to China, Syria and Iraq, threatens not only to destroy Turkey but much of the Middle East if he continues on his present path.
In October 2014 US Vice President Joe Biden told a Harvard gathering that Erdogan’s regime was backing ISIS with “hundreds of millions of dollars and thousands of tons of weapons…” Biden later apologized clearly for tactical reasons to get Erdo?an’s permission to use Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base for airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, but the dimensions of Erdogan’s backing for ISIS since revealed is far, far more than Biden hinted.
ISIS militants were trained by US, Israeli and now it emerges, by Turkish special forces at secret bases in Konya Province inside the Turkish border to Syria, over the past three years. Erdo?an’s involvement in ISIS goes much deeper. At a time when Washington, Saudi Arabia and even Qatar appear to have cut off their support for ISIS, they remaining amazingly durable. The reason appears to be the scale of the backing from Erdo?an and his fellow neo-Ottoman Sunni Islam Prime Minister, Ahmet Davuto?lu.
Nice Family Business
The prime source of money feeding ISIS these days is sale of Iraqi oil from the Mosul region oilfields where they maintain a stronghold. The son of Erdogan it seems is the man who makes the export sales of ISIS-controlled oil possible.
Bilal Erdo?an owns several maritime companies. He has allegedly signed contracts with European operating companies to carry Iraqi stolen oil to different Asian countries. The Turkish government buys Iraqi plundered oil which is being produced from the Iraqi seized oil wells. Bilal Erdogan’s maritime companies own special wharfs in Beirut and Ceyhan ports that are transporting ISIS’ smuggled crude oil in Japan-bound oil tankers.
Gürsel Tekin vice-president of the Turkish Republican Peoples’ Party, CHP, declared in a recent Turkish media interview, “President Erdogan claims that according to international transportation conventions there is no legal infraction concerning Bilal’s illicit activities and his son is doing an ordinary business with the registered Japanese companies, but in fact Bilal Erdo?an is up to his neck in complicity with terrorism, but as long as his father holds office he will be immune from any judicial prosecution.” Tekin adds that Bilal’s maritime company doing the oil trades for ISIS, BMZ Ltd, is “a family business and president Erdogan’s close relatives hold shares in BMZ and they misused public funds and took illicit loans from Turkish banks.”
In addition to son Bilal’s illegal and lucrative oil trading for ISIS, Sümeyye Erdogan, the daughter of the Turkish President apparently runs a secret hospital camp inside Turkey just over the Syrian border where Turkish army trucks daily being in scores of wounded ISIS Jihadists to be patched up and sent back to wage the bloody Jihad in Syria, according to the testimony of a nurse who was recruited to work there until it was discovered she was a member of the Alawite branch of Islam, the same as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who Erdogan seems hell-bent on toppling.
Turkish citizen Ramazan Bagol, captured this month by Kurdish People’s Defence Units,YPG, as he attempted to join ISIS from Konya province, told his captors that said he was sent to ISIS by the ‘Ismailia Sect,’ a strict Turkish Islam sect reported to be tied to Recep Erdogan. Baol said the sect recruits members and provides logistic support to the radical Islamist organization. He added that the Sect gives jihad training in neighborhoods of Konya and sends those trained here to join ISIS gangs in Syria.
According to French geopolitical analyst, Thierry Meyssan, Recep Erdogan “organised the pillage of Syria, dismantled all the factories in Aleppo, the economic capital, and stole the machine-tools. Similarly, he organised the theft of archeological treasures and set up an international market in Antioch…with the help of General Benoît Puga, Chief of Staff for the Elysée, he organised a false-flag operation intended to provoke the launching of a war by the Atlantic Alliance – the chemical bombing of la Ghoutta in Damascus, in August 2013. “
Meyssan claims that the Syria strategy of Erdo?an was initially secretly developed in coordination with former French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé and Erdogan’s then Foreign Minister Ahmet Davuto?lu, in 2011, after Juppe won a hesitant Erdogan to the idea of supporting the attack on traditional Turkish ally Syria in return for a promise of French support for Turkish membership in the EU. France later backed out, leaving Erdogan to continue the Syrian bloodbath largely on his own using ISIS.
Gen. John R. Allen, an opponent of Obama’s Iran peace strategy, now US diplomatic envoy coordinating the coalition against the Islamic State, exceeded his authorized role after meeting with Erdogan and “promised to create a "no-fly zone" ninety miles wide, over Syrian territory, along the whole border with Turkey, supposedly intended to help Syrian refugees fleeing from their government, but in reality to apply the "Juppé-Wright plan". The Turkish Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, revealed US support for the project on the TV channel A Haber by launching a bombing raid against the PKK.” Meyssan adds.
There are never winners in war and Erdogan’s war against Syria’s Assad demonstrates that in bold. Turkey and the world deserve better. Ahmet Davutoglu’s famous “Zero Problems With Neighbors” foreign policy has been turned into massive problems with all neighbors due to the foolish ambitions of Erdogan and his gang.
S400 being deployed at Russian airbase in Syria.
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If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
2015/11/27 09:28:01
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
Kilkrazy wrote: If the Russians blow up all of ISIL's tanker lorries, it won't matter whom we ought to blame for buying oil from them.
Part of me is concerned that that strategy won't work any better than the US' current War of Drugs. By the time the oil is on some truck going to wherever, ISIS has already been paid,Attacking cocaine in Florida doesn't make much difference to the Colombians who made the stuff. They'll just find someone else to move it. And all the countries currently air striking are only striking oil going to parties they don't support. Turkey and the US attack oil going to Syria. Russia attacks a oil going to Turkey. Uncertain if anyone is bombing the Kurdish smuggling line (the Kurds are clamping on part of it themselves, but they're simply rerouting the oil away from Turkey to others or themselves).
Another part of the issue is that completely cutting the oil could result in a significant humanitarian crisis. Assad's side of Syria for example has electric power plants, but nothing to fuel them with without ISIS' oil and gas. Same for the Syrian rebels and Iraq. Turkey and Iran have been doing everything from stock piling to resale, but Turkey also is unlikely to be able to meet it's energy needs without ISIS oil* (a problem complicated by most of it's internal energy resources being in the East, where the Kurds are).
I.E. All these parties have a profound need for oil and gas, and ISIS is selling the stuff at ludicrously low prices. Any plan to combat ISIS' oil profits will likely require a plan on how we're going to provide power and gas to Turkey, Syria, and Iraq (I don't know enough about the Kurd's territory in regards to this), and I don't think anyone wants to foot the bill for that for who knows how long.
*This is a simplification. This conflict and Turkey's energy industry is a huge quagmire mix of necessity and regional ambition.
It will, however, create a marvellous boost for the tanker lorry market.
Rule of Acquisition #34 War is good for business (so sad but so true)
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/11/27 11:44:39
Kilkrazy wrote: It's easy to find more drug mules. Each shipment is relatively small and high value. There is no alternative source of supply.
Point taken.
It also must compete with legal markets.
While this will effect it to some degree, the issue of supply also comes into play particularly, ISIS' ability to influence the legal supply of oil vs the illegal supply. Syria (Assad) is unlikely to get a better deal than what ISIS is currently offering (direct pumping to Syria's power plants in exchange for keeping the lights on in ISIS controlled areas and some cash). Especially with the US and EU maintaining trade sanctions on Assad. Turkey has geopolitical concerns in it's immediate way. It's internal energy resources are in the East where it faces the growing problem of the KPP and a full war with the Kurds. The biggest exporter of energy to Turkey is Russia. Geopolitical ambitions in direct conflict and all that.
Legal oil would have to go way down, or bombing way up (a more concerted effort than currently exists) to fully eliminate the profitability of smuggling oil, and of course ISIS can always just lower the price further. The estimates I can find give ISIS as selling oil at $40 a barrel, compared to what, the $90+ a barrel cost of legal oil? Smugglers can double their investment selling the stuff. Can we make it so expensive, or lower the price of legal oil so much, that smuggling ceases to be so profitable? We saw prices like, $20, $25 dollars (EDIT lower tan current that is) a year or two ago didn't we? That's back when ISIS was setting all this up.
Attacking the actual well heads and refineries would be a more strategic action but ideally we want to recapture the ISIL areas intact.
Yeah, but the more I follow the conflict, the more I get a sinking feeling ISIS really might not be going away so easily. I originally proposed this as a hypothetical outcome, but with my Masters program prep finished I've been catching up on my world news, and the outcome seems increasingly less far fetched. They're becoming a middle man for conflict between surrounding groups. They all fight ISIS, but their all working with ISIS at the same time to undermine rivals Iran and Syria vs Turkey and Syrian Rebels.. Islamists vs Islamists. Kurds vs nearly everyone else, All while Western states complain and moan, and promptly proceed to do very little because we're all arguing over Assad, Turkey, and the Kurds. The situation could easily evolve to the point where our involvement (or lack there of) is no longer relevant. ISIS is already a power all parties in the immediate region recognize and make deals with.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2015/11/27 12:19:44
Kilkrazy wrote: If the Russians blow up all of ISIL's tanker lorries, it won't matter whom we ought to blame for buying oil from them.
Part of me is concerned that that strategy won't work any better than the US' current War of Drugs. By the time the oil is on some truck going to wherever, ISIS has already been paid,Attacking cocaine in Florida doesn't make much difference to the Colombians who made the stuff. They'll just find someone else to move it. And all the countries currently air striking are only striking oil going to parties they don't support. Turkey and the US attack oil going to Syria. Russia attacks a oil going to Turkey. Uncertain if anyone is bombing the Kurdish smuggling line (the Kurds are clamping on part of it themselves, but they're simply rerouting the oil away from Turkey to others or themselves).
The two situations are not compatible.
Oil is easy to bomb, it burns better than cocaine, its also less valuable and there is no need to control the entire incoming supply. If you attack a drugs convoy the remainder that gets through has a high street value. Attack an oil convoy and the remainder has less value as a row of exploding oil containers rid hemselves of most of the problem.
Oil is also bulky and needs to be transported in vast volumes to be profitable on th same level as drugs. All this means drone strikes are more viable.
Second you cant just use drones on random guys in Mexico, in Syria no one cares too deeply about collateral and there is almost always collateral.
I would however argue that attacking any point of the supply train is potentially effective. Sure hitting drugs in Mexico wont harm Coloumbian producers, but they arent the main drug kinpins. From Colombia to US entry the drugs multiply in value 20x, this is handled by the intervening cartels, most notably the Mexican cartels like the Sinaloa. Unlike oil drugs rise in value as they geographically approach the US (or Europe) so being a part o the supply chain is viable business and an effective drugs campaign would need to target portions of the entire chain to deal with all the organisations along the chain. Breaking the chain is not possible as drug shipment routes repair themselves and parts of the chain are more than happy to bypass intermediaries that are compromised.
Oil doesnt have that dynamic, unless deliberately oil starved oil has a more or less set price globally, prior to consumer profit margins/taxation.
Another part of the issue is that completely cutting the oil could result in a significant humanitarian crisis. Assad's side of Syria for example has electric power plants, but nothing to fuel them with without ISIS' oil and gas. Same for the Syrian rebels and Iraq. Turkey and Iran have been doing everything from stock piling to resale, but Turkey also is unlikely to be able to meet it's energy needs without ISIS oil* (a problem complicated by most of it's internal energy resources being in the East, where the Kurds are).
Turkey can always buy it's oil and gas from Russia.
Russia is slapping the Turkmen with heavy ordnance. And I don't think Turkey will be happy about it, which is the point really. 0:28 Looks like thermobaric bombs.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2015/11/27 12:47:49
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
2015/11/27 13:10:27
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
That one at .28 does look different to rest. Could not tell you what it was. I can tell you its not a regular weapon.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
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I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2015/11/27 14:07:50
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
jhe90 wrote: That one at .28 does look different to rest. Could not tell you what it was. I can tell you its not a regular weapon.
It's probably a harsh language bomb. Russian is good for swearing, I've heard.
Market.ft.com says the benchmark oil Brent Crude is currently trading at $43.57 a barrel, which is not a lot more expensive than the price of the ISIL oil, though admittedly ISIL get their oil nearly for free by stealing it so their profit margin is a lot higher. They steal the tankers as well, of course. Also, regular customers buy legal oil on the futures market, which makes a difference to the prices they pay day to day.
However, there is the cost of buying replacement tankers, if ISIL can find someone to deliver to them! Alibaba is listing Chinese built tanker lorries at a rough average of $50,000 each, so if it's true that the Russians have already blown up 500 of them, that's $25 M that ISIL have to try and find in foreign exchange, then there's lead time on deliveries, and so on.
I think the key thing is that ISIL aren't really concerned with managing a modern supply and demand technical economy. They are basically just a bunch of pirates, they even want to run everything on gold coins! From this viewpoint they may not care that they keep losing tankers, they think they will just steal more or that they will be supplied by Allah. Until their system falls apart..
jhe90 wrote: That one at .28 does look different to rest. Could not tell you what it was. I can tell you its not a regular weapon.
Putin is not stupid are unstable enough to throw nukes.
However a thermobaric bomb is intense enough it has some of the signitures of a nuclear weapon though it is far smaller and non radiological. Very bright detonation flash could mean a phosphor or magnesium based weapon, but it doesn't appear to be one of those. Phosphor weapons do localised heat damage and are designed to fragment into multiple bomblets to cover an arrea. This was one intense blast. It could be something new, but my guess is that it was a single large thermobaric weapon.
Russia doesnt need to drop ordnance of that scale, napalm is good enough for the job, but hitting Turkmen with thermobaric weapon sends a very clear message. Being under or near that is essentially similar to being targeted with a nuke.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
2015/11/27 19:30:36
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
jhe90 wrote: That one at .28 does look different to rest. Could not tell you what it was. I can tell you its not a regular weapon.
Putin is not stupid are unstable enough to throw nukes.
However a thermobaric bomb is intense enough it has some of the signitures of a nuclear weapon though it is far smaller and non radiological. Very bright detonation flash could mean a phosphor or magnesium based weapon, but it doesn't appear to be one of those. Phosphor weapons do localised heat damage and are designed to fragment into multiple bomblets to cover an arrea. This was one intense blast. It could be something new, but my guess is that it was a single large thermobaric weapon.
Russia doesnt need to drop ordnance of that scale, napalm is good enough for the job, but hitting Turkmen with thermobaric weapon sends a very clear message. Being under or near that is essentially similar to being targeted with a nuke.
Well if you compare to other thermal images and such on the video, that is one massive localised hit, nothing like the other small ones. Only one to strobe the entire camera like that.
Whatever was hit, well from what you said, its going to not be healthy to say the least.
Regular bombs with high explosives do pretty devastating damage.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
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2015/11/27 22:42:48
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
Automatically Appended Next Post: As an update; Turkey has released an Audio Recording reportedly from a com station in their territory that warned the Russian jets to alter their course before entering Turkish airspace. This is the longest excerpt of the recording I can find (32 Seconds).
To the Russian pilot, no wonder you didn't hear it, I'm sitting in a quiet room and I can barely make out this choppy crap without a jet engine under my seat. Do military radios really sound like this?
This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2015/11/28 00:13:11
Well if you compare to other thermal images and such on the video, that is one massive localised hit, nothing like the other small ones. Only one to strobe the entire camera like that.
Whatever was hit, well from what you said, its going to not be healthy to say the least.
The list of what it could be is relatively short, but Russia has an arsenal of thermobaric weapons including FOAB which is of uncertain specifications, but know to be very large.
I expect those images are attracting intense scrutiny.
Regular bombs with high explosives do pretty devastating damage.
Yes they do, and are considerably cheaper. Russia produces artillery and aircraft ordnance by the hundred of thousands, they construct thermobaric weapons in the tens.
The use of such a weapon is 99% political, a cluster of smaller ordnance would do the same job, but doesn't send the same message.
Putin is no pussy, I fully expected him to use ordnance like this, and authorise televising it swiftly. Both for consumption at home it would look very impressive to the average Muscovite on the evening news, and a slap in the face to Turkey.
For maximum effect the demonstration attack weapon would likely have been launched from Syria at a target very close to Turkey but probably never crossing the border. At a military target with clear links to Turkey.
Note that it is unexplained, other than for the impressive flash, which indicate Putin is drawing a political picture he expects the Turkish government an military to read without further explanation.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
2015/11/28 11:28:10
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
If true, all I can really say is "Oh Turkey" and shake my head.
Prestor Jon wrote: Because children don't have any legal rights until they're adults. A minor is the responsiblity of the parent and has no legal rights except through his/her legal guardian or parent.
2015/11/28 17:49:28
Subject: Russian jet shot down in Turkish/Syrian Airspace
), the Ḥashshāshīn in 11-14th, the Fula Jihads in the 19th century (in West Africa, yeah, Boko Haram isn't very original), and even the immediate reaction to the Caucasian War involved the formation of a Jihadist resistance. 
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