UK & EU Politics Thread

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**jouso**

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
jouso wrote:
Herzlos wrote:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Merkel on the ropes, and if we had a stable government, and competent leaders, we might have been to exploit this situation to our advantage and shake down the EU for a good deal.

How? I can't get my head around the EU powerhouse being unstable gives us any negotiating power. A stable government headed up by Merkel would have more leeway and direction.

I can understand getting some advantage if different EU nations disagree on terms, but even then the default position is a hard brexit come April 1st 2019. Having no-one able to form a deal is even worse for us than a united front.

It's the same fundamental misunderstanding Trump had when dealing with Merkel a few months back.

Art of the deal: Angela Merkel had to repeatedly tutor Donald Trump about the European Union
https://www.salon.com/2017/04/24/art-of-the-deal-angela-merkel-had-to-repeatedly-tutor-donald-trump-in-the-european-union/

You deal with the whole EU, not individual countries. Of course the German word carries more weight than Malta's but ultimately the coalition of smaller voices beat the big ones.

Naturally of course, now that the EU's second biggest contributor is leaving the EU, and that Germany and France will have to contribute more, it stands to reason that Germany's voice is only going to diminish, not strengthen...

That doesn't change who the UK interlocutor in the EU is.

**Do_I_Not_Like_That**

Kilkrazy wrote:
I'm actually not interested in what Michel Barnier has to say. I am interested in what the UK government is doing to get us out of this mess.

It's not easy when you're negotiating with a brick wall.

For all the talk about the strength of the EU's position, Barnier is just a frontman without any room for manoeuvre or compromise.

I've been saying it for weeks, and I'll say it again: the negotiations are a sham.

**Kilkrazy**

It's perfectly possible to negotiate with a brick wall, only first you have to understand that the wall is a wall made of brick.

The UK side seems to have completely mis-understood the EU position from the beginning.

**Herzlos**

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Kilkrazy wrote:
I'm actually not interested in what Michel Barnier has to say. I am interested in what the UK government is doing to get us out of this mess.

It's not easy when you're negotiating with a brick wall.

For all the talk about the strength of the EU's position, Barnier is just a frontman without any room for manoeuvre or compromise.

I've been saying it for weeks, and I'll say it again: the negotiations are a sham.

The EU has been pretty firm in it's stance, but that doesn't make it a brick wall. You seem to forget that not all negotiations require meeting in the middle.

Team UK seems to be getting slightly better in it's approach, but it still comes across as pretty schizophrenic. I'm not convinced it's given the EU anything to work with yet, because it doesn't know what it wants*.

*Though to be fair, what Team UK wants is to be able to blame someone else for this mess and keep their jobs / pension pots after April 1st 2019.

**Kilkrazy**

Indeed.

The whole sorry mess is born of the Conservative Party's desire not to rip itself apart between its pro- and anti-EU wings.

**Ketara**

Kilkrazy wrote:
Indeed.

The whole sorry mess is born of the Conservative Party's desire not to rip itself apart between its pro- and anti-EU wings.

I don't think you can quite blame the 53% odd percentage of voters who wanted to leave the EU solely on the Conservative Party. Brussels has their own cross to bear.

**Herzlos**

51.9%.

**Ketara**

Herzlos wrote:
51.9%.

....not gonna lie, that was the most pedantic correction I've seen today.

**Kilkrazy**

I wasn't concerned with the precise percentage (though if it was a 60/40 split it would be a lot clearer mandate for change.)

My point was that Cameron promised a referendum because he wanted to defuse the Tory anti-EU wing of the party (which gave PM john Major such hassle in the 1990s) and to stop the leakage as he saw it of votes to UKIP. He called the referendum on the basis of 36% vote in the general election that delivered that manifesto.

Cameron's actual government policy was to stay in the EU, and could best have been served by not calling a referendum, but this might have lost the Tories more votes.

Nothing was done with the best interests of the UK in mind. It was done for the best interests of David Cameron.

**Herzlos**

Ketara wrote:
Herzlos wrote:
51.9%.

....not gonna lie, that was the most pedantic correction I've seen today.

It's an important one

I can't let anyone think brexit had a statistical majority. 53.x% would actually be a meaningful result.

**jouso**

Kilkrazy wrote:
I wasn't concerned with the precise percentage (though if it was a 60/40 split it would be a lot clearer mandate for change.)

My point was that Cameron promised a referendum because he wanted to defuse the Tory anti-EU wing of the party (which gave PM john Major such hassle in the 1990s) and to stop the leakage as he saw it of votes to UKIP. He called the referendum on the basis of 36% vote in the general election that delivered that manifesto.

Cameron's actual government policy was to stay in the EU, and could best have been served by not calling a referendum, but this might have lost the Tories more votes.

Nothing was done with the best interests of the UK in mind. It was done for the best interests of David Cameron.

Precisely. Most center-right parties learn to live with a eurosceptic party to their right (often getting along just fine on some issues)

Then there's the way the remain campaign was run and the absence of a plan in case things didn't go as expected, but that's relatively minor.

**Ketara**

I see. I thought by 'This whole sorry mess' you were referring to Brexit in general, as opposed to the specific sole decision to hold a referendum. Which is indeed on Cameron's shoulders, as PM at the time.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Herzlos wrote:

It's an important one I can't let anyone think brexit had a statistical majority. 53.x% would actually be a meaningful result.

I could remember it was within 0.1% of 52% or 53%, I just couldn't remember which. Although let's be honest, it could have been 58% to leave, and the result would have been identical in terms of everything that's happened since.

**Mr Morden**

It might have helped if Cameron had not proved to be such a total Coward and abandoned his promise to see the country through in favour of bunging his mates massive pay offs and honours and sauntering off to wallow in the money pits of the corporate talk circuit.

It was disgusting how he acted following the vote.

**Herzlos**

Ketara wrote:
I see. I thought by 'This whole sorry mess' you were referring to Brexit in general, as opposed to the specific sole decision to hold a referendum. Which is indeed on Cameron's shoulders, as PM at the time.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Herzlos wrote:

It's an important one I can't let anyone think brexit had a statistical majority. 53.x% would actually be a meaningful result.

I could remember it was within 0.1% of 52% or 53%, I just couldn't remember which. Although let's be honest, it could have been 58% to leave, and the result would have been identical in terms of everything that's happened since.

I reckon anything over 55% would have cut off all the will of the people arguments. Above 53% would cut out all the legitimacy arguments.

Then we'd just have to argue about how stupid the idea us

**Whirlwind**

Steve steveson wrote:
I don’t believe you should give exemptions to minimum wage. If you wish to support small business in particular sector then the use of tax exemptions would be more appropriate. I understand the need to support small business, but equally we have to ensure we are not propping up unsustainable business. You also have to take account of the fact that that small businesses would also struggle to get workers. If you base it on profit it would also fall apart. Think of the number of multinationals that pay no tax as they move their income to different countries to reduce tax on profits.

It depends on what you mean by 'sustainable' those companies like Amazon can move money abroad and pay less tax. That means any individual item can still earn the same profit compared to a small business but be selling it a cheaper price. That drives more sales for them vastly increasing profit and punishing the smaller businesses that have to pay UK tax. It can be the system that makes things sustainable. If you want both large and small businesses to be treated equitably in terms of the Government support they get then that has to be applied both at the smaller and larger business level. But it simply isn't, therefore you have to change the system so that if you increase the minimum wage the smaller businesses feel less of the pressure (on already tight margins) compared to the big businesses (who might also be using self employed gigging employees).

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Politicians are politicians the world over, and as much as they love the European project, their own job prospects will come first 99.9% of the time.

A strong British government could have turned around and said: you need Merkel. she's in trouble in Germany, let's cut a quick deal that suits everybody. Who needs the hassle of tortuous negotiations? Everyone's a winner. Job done.

Sometimes, it can be as simple as that.

You are working on the principle though that they won't be more hard lined about the issue. The same types of people in Germany (ultra conservative) have the same attitude as here (as in Germany first, never forget they are foreigners claptrap). That might force all the parties to be harder to be seen to be getting a better deal for Germany so those same supporters then vote for the those parties other than neo-Nazi linked group. It's the same as what happened here (though UKIP isn't quite as bad, but similar sentiments) and hence we get a ultra hard line government that doesn't really want to negotiate because of being seen to be weak and losing critical support for generations.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

reds8n wrote:

Spoiler:

I see they are still living in cloud cuckoo land then. We can't even fill vacant posts in farmers fields and food is going to rot. How exactly do they think they will find enough people to fill these jobs on the same basis?

**reds8n**

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42050742

Amsterdam has won a vote to host the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which will relocate from London after the UK leaves the European Union.
The UK is losing both the EMA and the European Banking Authority (EBA) which employ around 1,000 people.
Ministers from the 27 EU countries remaining in the bloc after the UK departs in 2019 have taken part in the secret ballot.
They will now vote later on the new home for the EBA.
Some 16 cities bid for the EMA, while eight want to host the EBA - Brussels, Dublin, Frankfurt, Paris, Prague, Luxembourg City, Vienna and Warsaw.
The EMA is the more alluring of the two bodies, as it promises to make its new host into a hub for Europe's medical industry.

The city that won the EMA must then drop out of the running for the banking authority.
Slovakia had been campaigning hard to make the case for relocating the EMA to Bratislava. Following its failure to win, diplomats say Slovakia may seek to cushion the blow by seeking support for its finance minister becoming chair of the Eurogroup, which runs policy for the eurozone.
What is the EMA?
The European Medicines Agency evaluates and supervises medicines for both human and animal use
It helps national authorities authorise the sale of drugs across the EU's single market of some 500 million people
It has been based at Canary Wharf in east London since 1995 and has about 900 staff
What is the EBA?
The European Banking Authority guarantees financial stability in Europe, including the integrity of the EU's banking sector
Its 170-strong workforce is tasked with harmonising banking rules across the EU
Created in 2011, it is best known for its banking "stress tests" designed to test how well banks can withstand a possible repeat of the 2008 financial crisis
Its staff carried out 700 missions in member states last year, meaning its new host must have good air links

..back in April Davis said we could hang onto these , despite the EU saying they would go.

Loss for the UK: 900 jobs, €322m budget (89% from fees & charges, 5% from EU), health industry setting up nearby & 40,000 business visits a year. Gone from London.

http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/about_us/general/general_content_000130.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac0580029336

**Kilkrazy**

Ketara wrote:
I see. I thought by 'This whole sorry mess' you were referring to Brexit in general, as opposed to the specific sole decision to hold a referendum. Which is indeed on Cameron's shoulders, as PM at the time.

... ...

To be clear, I also believe Brexit is a whole sorry mess in general.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Mr Morden wrote:
It might have helped if Cameron had not proved to be such a total Coward and abandoned his promise to see the country through in favour of bunging his mates massive pay offs and honours and sauntering off to wallow in the money pits of the corporate talk circuit.

It was disgusting how he acted following the vote.

Same same with Farago, Bozo and Gove.

Still, Tim Martin of popular low-end pub-restaurant chain Wetherspoons thinks the global car industry operates under the same conditions as him, so that's all right.

In completely unrelated news, the Electoral Commission has re-opened its investigation into alleged illegal actions taken by various Leave campaigns.

**Whirlwind**

Herzlos wrote:
Ketara wrote:
Herzlos wrote:
51.9%.

....not gonna lie, that was the most pedantic correction I've seen today.

It's an important one I can't let anyone think brexit had a statistical majority. 53.x% would actually be a meaningful result.

Agreed, I suppose at some point I should really have a quick look at the statistical variation to see whether 53% would be a more significant result.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ketara wrote:
I see. I thought by 'This whole sorry mess' you were referring to Brexit in general, as opposed to the specific sole decision to hold a referendum. Which is indeed on Cameron's shoulders, as PM at the time.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Herzlos wrote:

It's an important one I can't let anyone think brexit had a statistical majority. 53.x% would actually be a meaningful result.

I could remember it was within 0.1% of 52% or 53%, I just couldn't remember which. Although let's be honest, it could have been 58% to leave, and the result would have been identical in terms of everything that's happened since.

Well Cameron might have not left if it was that convincing. At that threshold it would have taken quite a die hard remainer to argue that there was a statistical possibility that it was an aberration (after considering those that didn't vote etc). It would have been more convincing and it was unlikely that we would have had such divide between NI + Scotland vs England + Wales as at that result pretty much everywhere would have voted Leave. That would then have meant the NI border was likely to be less of an issue. It would have probably put us in a stronger position too as the Government wouldn't be so split on the issue. Instead what has happened is an internal political fight in the Tory party has turned into a split country (that will probably split the country in the long term).

Automatically Appended Next Post:

reds8n wrote:

..back in April Davis said we could hang onto these , despite the EU saying they would go.

Loss for the UK: 900 jobs, €322m budget (89% from fees & charges, 5% from EU), health industry setting up nearby & 40,000 business visits a year. Gone from London.

http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/about_us/general/general_content_000130.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac0580029336

I'm afraid he was living on another planet when he thought that was the case. The real question is though, what happens now for getting medicines approved if it all falls through (looking increasingly likely). I suppose if David Tredinnick gets his way they'll be using Astrology before too long.

**Kilkrazy**

More Brexit news.

Paris wins bid to host EU banking agency post-Brexit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42050742

**Whirlwind**

Kilkrazy wrote:

In completely unrelated news, the Electoral Commission has re-opened its investigation into alleged illegal actions taken by various Leave campaigns.

Yeah saw this today

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/vote-leave-brexit-investigation-referendum_uk_5a1300f9e4b0c335e9962718?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

So what happens if it is found that the Leave campaign were unfairly funding such schemes? May used another election to cover much less funding issues in the 2015 election. Could it perhaps lead to a new referendum if the last one was a result of electoral fraud (of an extent?). Was this Boris's master plan all along???

**Steve steveson**

reds8n wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42050742

Amsterdam has won a vote to host the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which will relocate from London after the UK leaves the European Union.
The UK is losing both the EMA and the European Banking Authority (EBA) which employ around 1,000 people.
Ministers from the 27 EU countries remaining in the bloc after the UK departs in 2019 have taken part in the secret ballot.
They will now vote later on the new home for the EBA.
Some 16 cities bid for the EMA, while eight want to host the EBA - Brussels, Dublin, Frankfurt, Paris, Prague, Luxembourg City, Vienna and Warsaw.
The EMA is the more alluring of the two bodies, as it promises to make its new host into a hub for Europe's medical industry.

The city that won the EMA must then drop out of the running for the banking authority.
Slovakia had been campaigning hard to make the case for relocating the EMA to Bratislava. Following its failure to win, diplomats say Slovakia may seek to cushion the blow by seeking support for its finance minister becoming chair of the Eurogroup, which runs policy for the eurozone.
What is the EMA?
The European Medicines Agency evaluates and supervises medicines for both human and animal use
It helps national authorities authorise the sale of drugs across the EU's single market of some 500 million people
It has been based at Canary Wharf in east London since 1995 and has about 900 staff
What is the EBA?
The European Banking Authority guarantees financial stability in Europe, including the integrity of the EU's banking sector
Its 170-strong workforce is tasked with harmonising banking rules across the EU
Created in 2011, it is best known for its banking "stress tests" designed to test how well banks can withstand a possible repeat of the 2008 financial crisis
Its staff carried out 700 missions in member states last year, meaning its new host must have good air links

..back in April Davis said we could hang onto these , despite the EU saying they would go.

Loss for the UK: 900 jobs, €322m budget (89% from fees & charges, 5% from EU), health industry setting up nearby & 40,000 business visits a year. Gone from London.

http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/about_us/general/general_content_000130.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac0580029336

Project fear lalalala project fear lalalalala

**Whirlwind**

Kilkrazy wrote:
More Brexit news.

Paris wins bid to host EU banking agency post-Brexit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42050742

Ouch. That one is going to hurt. France are already on record stating they want as much of the banking sector as possible and now they have this they will push for it even harder. I don't think the banking passporting rights will be on the table anymore.

**Kilkrazy**

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Merkel on the ropes, and if we had a stable government, and competent leaders, we might have been to exploit this situation to our advantage and shake down the EU for a good deal.

Ah, what could have been...

On the plus side, maybe second time around Merkel will get the opportunity to give a £500 million bung to some tiny minority party that will arboro-magically squeezeout the few votes out of hundreds she needs to win.

**reds8n**

.. huh, thought Frankfurt was going to get the banking agency.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-policy-chief-george-freeman-resigns-2017-11

"Theresa May suffers new resignation after her policy chief George Freeman quits"

**Do_I_Not_Like_That**

Yeah, I've just discovered that I never really meant to vote for Brexit, it was the Russians sending me subconscious messages whilst I slept...

Despite anti-EEC/EU opposition that started the day after the 1975 referendum result, despite years of anti-EU headlines in The Mail and The Telegraph, despite the Maastricht rebels, and despite Farage, and despite all this pre-dating Putin's presidency...it was the Russians wot won it...

There's crackpot conspiracies, and then there's crackpot conspiracies...

I'm not blaming people on dakka for this, but in certain media outlets, it's like the German army in the 1920s and the stab in the back myth.

The Russians? That's Remain's excuse for running one of the most gak poor political campaigns I have ever seen in my life?

I have often suspected that certain Remainers in the media secretly support Brexit.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Whirlwind wrote:
Kilkrazy wrote:
More Brexit news.

Paris wins bid to host EU banking agency post-Brexit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42050742

Ouch. That one is going to hurt. France are already on record stating they want as much of the banking sector as possible and now they have this they will push for it even harder. I don't think the banking passporting rights will be on the table anymore.

The French are welcome to these spivs. They ran this country into the ground.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

reds8n wrote:
.. huh, thought Frankfurt was going to get the banking agency.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-policy-chief-george-freeman-resigns-2017-11

"Theresa May suffers new resignation after her policy chief George Freeman quits"

There's been that many, so I doubt if the general public will notice another resignation from May's government.

**Whirlwind**

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Yeah, I've just discovered that I never really meant to vote for Brexit, it was the Russians sending me subconscious messages whilst I slept...

Despite anti-EEC/EU opposition that started the day after the 1975 referendum result, despite years of anti-EU headlines in The Mail and The Telegraph, despite the Maastricht rebels, and despite Farage, and despite all this pre-dating Putin's presidency...it was the Russians wot won it

You need to look into the reports more. You and I were never the intended target, that is a waste of time and resources. Our minds are firmly camped in the leave and remain side of things. The research that has been done on it shows they targeted groups that showed evidence of being undecided. I remember a report (it might have been in new scientist that undecided social media sites were the main targets for these bots). We are still human and people can be subtly manipulated (feed only bad things on the EU etc, give the impression that leave views are dominant. The links all seem to feed back to a few chains. Russia,is meddling, it has a vested interest to disrupt western nations if that breaks social cohesion, direction and a single voice (just look at the US and UK). The real question is whether it is state sanctioned meddling from the top.

Ouch. That one is going to hurt. France are already on record stating they want as much of the banking sector as possible and now they have this they will push for it even harder. I don't think the banking passporting rights will be on the table anymore.

The French are welcome to these spivs. They ran this country into the ground.

Although I understand the frustration with the banking industry, you need to change the system gradually and in a controlled manner. Losing a substantial fraction in a short period of time is a recipe for disaster for public finances. Anyway look at this way, we've bailed them out wouldn't you want a return from that investment before you kick them out?

**Kilkrazy**

In more positive Brexit news, Eurotunnel is renaming itself Getlink.

http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2017/11/20/eurotunnel-change-de-nom-et-devient-getlink_5217425_3234.html

**Shadow Captain Edithae**

Kilkrazy wrote:
In more positive Brexit news, Eurotunnel is renaming itself Getlink.

http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2017/11/20/eurotunnel-change-de-nom-et-devient-getlink_5217425_3234.html

...but why?

**Herzlos**

Whirlwind wrote:

Ouch. That one is going to hurt. France are already on record stating they want as much of the banking sector as possible and now they have this they will push for it even harder. I don't think the banking passporting rights will be on the table anymore.

They haven't been on the table at any point in Brexit so far.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

The Russians? That's Remain's excuse for running one of the most gak poor political campaigns I have ever seen in my life?

Russian businesses paid for Brexit related adverts on facebook and even paid in Rubles. They didn't do it for the lulz. Bear in mind the margin here is so thin that they could have swung it by passing even more disinformation.

The French are welcome to these spivs. They ran this country into the ground.

That attitude is why we are in the gak. They messed up the country due to government de-regulation (due to the red tories), and are still responsible for something like 9-11% of the entire gakking economy. It's all fair and well disliking them, but you need to appreciate that we do an awful lot with their money.

There's been that many, so I doubt if the general public will notice another resignation from May's government.

Very true, it's been a farce from the start.

**Kilkrazy**

The core problem of the trade talks around Brexit is how to reconcile free movement of people, goods and services without the oversight of the ECJ and involvement in the EEA.

Basically this is a circle that cannot be squared without a massive concession of basic political principle by the EU, because the Conservatives have already drawn a line in the sand about this, saying the UK won't accept the ECJ, EEA or free movement.

Consequently this deal is very unlikely to happen, so David Davis hopes for a trade deal like other third party nations such as Canada. He is desperate to start talking about this deal because he knows it will take a long time to get done.

Passporting rights might be on the table if and when we can get into the trade talks. Given our soon to be set in law deadline of March 29th 2019 for leaving the EU whatever happens, we need to clear the three hurdles of the Irish Border, Citizens' Rights and the divorce bill in the next few weeks, so that we can get to the trade talks.