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 SickSix wrote:
This makes me sad because it means there are still enough GW sheep out there that will gobble up anything they sell regardless of price or business practices. This sends a very bad affirmation to GW that they are still on the right track.


During most of these discussions I just roll my eyes. If you hate a company so much, not buying their product is a much more effective measure than complaining about them on a fansite forum. But this? "GW sheep"?

Everyone has a limit for their involvement. Due to price raises, some have reached theirs. Due to business practices, others have as well. The rest that haven't? Well, they just haven't. And they are not "sheep" - they are buying something they enjoy spending time on. Maybe that won't be true forever, but it's true now. You need to get over yourself.

 
   
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GW has certainly never had a limited run item sell out multiple times, or lied about what they were going to sell.

Definitely not with Space Hulk.... or Dreadfleet or the SoB white dwarf, or many of their 40K expansion products.

Here, it is the same very effective principle applied to regular release items.

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I would imagine it would be harder to judge how well Tau would have sold with a new release by looking at Grey Knights. I would think that Dark Eldar would have been a better option to look at.

   
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Gitzbitah wrote:
GW has certainly never had a limited run item sell out multiple times, or lied about what they were going to sell.

Definitely not with Space Hulk.... or Dreadfleet or the SoB white dwarf, or many of their 40K expansion products.

Here, it is the same very effective principle applied to regular release items.


Maybe, but I don't recall this happening before, even with Dark Eldar, which had huge hype and models generally praised. It's not like they can do this every release ("hey, we have AGAIN underestimated the demand for new Black Templar miniatures...")

As for the argument "Xenos don't sell", rumour was that Codex: Tau Empire was one of the best selling army books GW has ever put out. Tau were popular during 4th ed.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/03 13:15:17


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GW also done this for the daemons. Its not just the tau and lets be honest the tau are not that popular bit enough to sell out. This is purely GW clamping down on the uk selling websites to drive store sales up. Nothing more
   
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 Krinsath wrote:
Also, Grey Knights = super cool marines, which naturally sell. GW would have made loads of them.

Tau = Filthy Xenos, and nobody wants to play anything other than Marines, so GW accordingly probably made fewer.



I am sure they did make fewer Tau however it is the ratio of production to demand that seems to have gone wrong, rather than the finite numbers.

I remember reading a long time ago that at one stage Tau accounted for 10% of 40K sales, so it isn't a tiny following.

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Backfire wrote:
Gitzbitah wrote:
GW has certainly never had a limited run item sell out multiple times, or lied about what they were going to sell.

Definitely not with Space Hulk.... or Dreadfleet or the SoB white dwarf, or many of their 40K expansion products.

Here, it is the same very effective principle applied to regular release items.


. It's not like they can do this every release ("hey, we have AGAIN underestimated the demand for new Black Templar miniatures...")


Why not? One would argue that they couldn't raise prices every year and expect to maintain sales- yet they have. GW has extremely predatory business practices. I am actually rather surprised they haven't done this already.

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 Kilkrazy wrote:
 Krinsath wrote:
Also, Grey Knights = super cool marines, which naturally sell. GW would have made loads of them.

Tau = Filthy Xenos, and nobody wants to play anything other than Marines, so GW accordingly probably made fewer.



I am sure they did make fewer Tau however it is the ratio of production to demand that seems to have gone wrong, rather than the finite numbers.

I remember reading a long time ago that at one stage Tau accounted for 10% of 40K sales, so it isn't a tiny following.


I have a feeling they vastly underestimated the EU allotment, or had some sort of issue that unexpectedly depleted stock, as so far as we've heard it's GW UK having the issues and not the other regions so far. I'm sure we'll hear more about that as the day goes on and news trickles down the supply chain as to whether it's a global or regional issue.
   
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Gitzbitah wrote:

Why not? One would argue that they couldn't raise prices every year and expect to maintain sales- yet they have. GW has extremely predatory business practices. I am actually rather surprised they haven't done this already.


Of course you can raise prices every year. Most businesses do, y'know

I think most likely explanation is what was already mentioned: their release schedule has been amped up, but they can't do same with production: meaning with anything new, less of each is produced.

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 Mick A wrote:
I still say its a try out of a new marketing policy, supply their own shops on release date then independents a week or so later. If the stock has sold so well where has it been sold from?


Agreed, also an attempt to drive people to the GW stores. It even says to go to your local GW. There is no shortage, they are just trying to lure all the "must have it now" people into paying full retail at a GW store.

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Backfire wrote:
Gitzbitah wrote:

Why not? One would argue that they couldn't raise prices every year and expect to maintain sales- yet they have. GW has extremely predatory business practices. I am actually rather surprised they haven't done this already.


Of course you can raise prices every year. Most businesses do, y'know

I think most likely explanation is what was already mentioned: their release schedule has been amped up, but they can't do same with production: meaning with anything new, less of each is produced.


I agree. Occam's Razor suggests that this was a manufacturing bump created by the crazy release pace. There are lots of tinfoil hats around here these days.

Incidentally -- tying this to another recent discussion around here -- I once heard from someone at GW that manufacturing was the main issue with producing a plastic Thunderhawk. The kit would require so many sprues that it'd tie up their manufacturing for an undesirable amount of time.

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Gitzbitah wrote:
GW has certainly never had a limited run item sell out multiple times, or lied about what they were going to sell.

Definitely not with Space Hulk.... or Dreadfleet or the SoB white dwarf, or many of their 40K expansion products.

Here, it is the same very effective principle applied to regular release items.


Um, I don't get what your getting at. Limited run items are limited avalability? Space Hulk was limited edition and they sold out. They only print a set number of white dwarfs and it sold out. Dreadfleet... well, it was limited and didn't sell our, but hay ho. Just gose to show GW are not that good at judging stock.

IMO they have screwed up on the stock levels. I'm not all that shocked. These are very nice new minis, and it is the first force that many people will look to for allies that has had a codex. I can see us seeing allot of Tau allies going forward.

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Backfire wrote:
Gitzbitah wrote:
GW has certainly never had a limited run item sell out multiple times, or lied about what they were going to sell.

Definitely not with Space Hulk.... or Dreadfleet or the SoB white dwarf, or many of their 40K expansion products.

Here, it is the same very effective principle applied to regular release items.


Maybe, but I don't recall this happening before, even with Dark Eldar, which had huge hype and models generally praised. It's not like they can do this every release ("hey, we have AGAIN underestimated the demand for new Black Templar miniatures...")

As for the argument "Xenos don't sell", rumour was that Codex: Tau Empire was one of the best selling army books GW has ever put out. Tau were popular during 4th ed.


From what I've seen around my local gaming groups, more people have been hyped over new Tau more than the last three 6th ed codexes. I myself am happy for the Tau and have been eager to see them update despite the fact that I don't play them nor plan on doing so in the near future. A lot of the guys there are going to want the codex first before buying new miniatures anyway though to work what they've got though.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2013/04/03 14:11:48


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 gorgon wrote:

Incidentally -- tying this to another recent discussion around here -- I once heard from someone at GW that manufacturing was the main issue with producing a plastic Thunderhawk. The kit would require so many sprues that it'd tie up their manufacturing for an undesirable amount of time.


Design work for large models is also laborous process: I recall Forge world rep said in recent GD interview that big models tend to be rather uneconomical: Big kits are a balance of cost in time vs how much they’ll sell realistically. For instance the Manta took one and a half years for Will Hayes to produce, during which time he wasn’t getting much else done. Could he have made fifteen other kits that would have sold more in that time? That’s the numbers they run and why big kits are rarer.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/03 14:11:42


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 gorgon wrote:
Backfire wrote:
Gitzbitah wrote:

Why not? One would argue that they couldn't raise prices every year and expect to maintain sales- yet they have. GW has extremely predatory business practices. I am actually rather surprised they haven't done this already.


Of course you can raise prices every year. Most businesses do, y'know

I think most likely explanation is what was already mentioned: their release schedule has been amped up, but they can't do same with production: meaning with anything new, less of each is produced.


I agree. Occam's Razor suggests that this was a manufacturing bump created by the crazy release pace. There are lots of tinfoil hats around here these days.

Incidentally -- tying this to another recent discussion around here -- I once heard from someone at GW that manufacturing was the main issue with producing a plastic Thunderhawk. The kit would require so many sprues that it'd tie up their manufacturing for an undesirable amount of time.



I find it odd that only the EU are affected by this. If it were a manufacturing issue wouldn't the entire release be held up? It is also strange that the shipping is pushed back by only 3 days and over a weekend at that. It seems more like a shipping or customs issue than anything.
   
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It kinda helps that 'TAU' allies with just about everyone, and shooty units can plug-n-play with almost every type of army list. So you don't just have TAU collectors looking for models, but pretty much everyone who can ally with them. As someone who buys nothing but Orks, I actually had to keep my ears up for both Chaos and Tau releases recently as they are both valid allies for me.

It sounds like they just underestimated and sold out.

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So let me get some thing straight:

Indies were asked last week (before Eastern) to make their orders on the new stuff, with no quantity restrictions. They could add to this until yesterday 4pm. They can reorder the Monday after Tau release. So if any Indie suffered any restriction or shortage, it is because of his own repeated miscalculations, not because of GW malice. The announcement is just for the "order now and pick up at GW" guarantee, that doesn't work this week anymore.
lunarman wrote:Yeah, I think the tau models are probably the best / most original models GW has produced in years, even decades.
I think they legitimately sold out.

Remember Dark Eldar?
And tau are often underestimated. Esp. after half a year of almost exclusively Chaos releases (plus Dark Angels).
Although I don't think that any of the new Tau models is indeed original, just close and fainthearted variations of previous Tau designs.

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 JudgeShamgar wrote:

I find it odd that only the EU are affected by this. If it were a manufacturing issue wouldn't the entire release be held up? It is also strange that the shipping is pushed back by only 3 days and over a weekend at that. It seems more like a shipping or customs issue than anything.


GW has different production facilities for NA, so they don't have to ship across the sea. This is why Death From the Skies has been out of stock for specific regions.

 
   
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 filbert wrote:


Again, who knows? It just seems so weird that GW would significantly underestimate demand to the extent that everything is delayed. They have never done so before (at least, not to my memory) and have never suffered capacity or production issues before so why now? Tau aren't that major a release, surely?


I have heard from 2 store owners that Tau are the 2nd largest sellers outside of "Space Marines."

I am sure a few of the other store owners can chime in.

GW is aware that finecast had QC issues, so there may be some issue with that end of the release. It is ludcris to think that they only printed 10k codexs as mentioned before. I am sure there are close to 10k+ English based resell accounts. In the business we assume each store front will take at least 3 units if they carry your line, plus who knows what the direct sales does.

What the heck am I getting at? Tau released like 7 years ago, in a much different socio-economical environment. Is it hard to gauge the launch of a product who's grown wildly in popularity since it's last launch? Absolutely. For GW it is better to under produce and have people wait than over produce and sit on stock.

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Seems like dakka is full of people wearing tin foil hats.

Is it really a conspiracy that GW is running out of stock? No, no I dont think so.

   
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Tinfoil hats or just jaded from past observation of GW antics that are all over the map (to us in the public)? Personally, I think it is a supplyside foul-up on their part, but the "tinfoil" theories could have some truth for all we know... If you have some definitive info one way or the other, please do share it...

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If it isn't conspiracy, it shows an amazing failure on the part of GW to understand the demand for one of their major products. Either way doesn't speek highly of GW, especially when the company has done so much lately to limit the avenues on information gathering available to it.

The telling scenario will be how it "recovers" from this. Will incoming product be shipped out to online first? To cover shortfalls to Independent Retailers? To Company store shelves?

My gut tells me the following will occur. GW store fronts will have sufficient stock for preorders and instore sales. There may be a bit of "we don't have it, but GW store X across town does, or we can have it here in three days with GW store Y ships us some of thier overstock." GW Online will push things back until the 19th, however preorders will start seeing theirs in the mail by the 15th with GW saying they were able to juggle production and get things done faster.

Independents will have thier initial orders gut by 40-50%. They won't see the vast majority of thier preorder stock in until the 26th or so with the general excuses of low supply, bad logistics, etc. Restock won't be able to be available until two weeks after that, or, restock won't be available at all with much of it going to direct only.







 
   
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No, what would be the "telling scenario" is if this sudden shortage starts to apply to the North American web shop as well as the European one.

Because right now it only affects the European web shop.
   
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True. I guess in my mind it -has- to affect the NA webshop in order for it to truely be a production shortage. I just don't see how a production shortage like this wouldn't be worldwide and limited to a region.

If it does stay EU, well that sort of screams that tinfoil is the new finecast this season.







 
   
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Shotgun wrote:
I just don't see how a production shortage like this wouldn't be worldwide and limited to a region.

Different distribution centers. They have the models manufactured wherever and then shipped to the distribution center for that region (in the US it is Memphis, I believe). The reason the delay isn't longer is probably because they just need to have more product shipped to that distribution center in the UK. For example, with DFTS, it was longer because they actually had to have the books printed and then sent to distribution. With the Tau, it isn't as long because they just need to shuffle warehoused product, more than likely.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/03 16:19:07


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Like stated several times above; I believe that the amount of people that want Tau and the breakneck (for them at least) pace they've been releasing armies and models lead to this delay. Honestly, the most important thing is getting the codex. You can proxy the models.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/03 16:30:52


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This happens with just about every new product they come out with. Probably deliberate.

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 Harriticus wrote:
This happens with just about every new product they come out with. Probably deliberate.

Citation needed. Other than limited edition stuff (and DFTS), it hasn't happened at this level for an entire region recently that I am aware of. DFTS, obviously, the drastically underestimated demand for. I didn't hear of an e-mail delaying the release of Dark Angels or Chaos though.

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Is it *really* that 'breakneck' a pace?

Or is it just because there has been a string of stuff recently that has been relevant to 40k? I wouldn't have thought, taking all the ranges into account, there has been a significantly higher number of kits released than there has been in the past few years.
   
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 pretre wrote:
Shotgun wrote:
I just don't see how a production shortage like this wouldn't be worldwide and limited to a region.

Different distribution centers. They have the models manufactured wherever and then shipped to the distribution center for that region (in the US it is Memphis, I believe). The reason the delay isn't longer is probably because they just need to have more product shipped to that distribution center in the UK. For example, with DFTS, it was longer because they actually had to have the books printed and then sent to distribution. With the Tau, it isn't as long because they just need to shuffle warehoused product, more than likely.


This and maybe europe sold more.... if they are saying 3 days its most likely a case of ohh ran out here will move from aus/usa to there i wouldnt worry about it too much....

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