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Made in gb
Dakka Veteran




Lincoln, UK

Britain sells/used to sell its high-quality "sweet" (medium weight, low-sulphur) oil and import cheaper stuff from abroad. With the decline in its reserves (peak output was 1999), it has been a net importer for years.

Oil was in negative price territory past year due to a shortage of storage space. We burn through 100 million barrels every day - the excess oil was used up months ago. One result of the low price was that many marginal wells were shut down. Some may never re-open. The price per barrel for WTI crude has already gone up from $40 to $60 since January to reflect that. As we open up again, the price will continue to climb as those wells are slow to re-open.

We are absolutely in a shipping and production crisis. There are worlwide shortages of everything from wood pulp to computer chips. Laptops are in short supply - my team buys thousands every year and we're struggling to mske a 6-month plan, let alone look further ahead.

I've worked on several ERP deployments. They're typically a 2-year project, mine were often compressed to 9 months due to client pressure. They should really be advertised as a 4 to 6-year job for all the ongoing issues (maybe that's just the ones I worked on...), but nobody would buy one if they were.

GW are far from alone in suffering right now, they've just had a problem that's highly visible to us. Plenty of High Street and out of town retailers have gone bust, or into administration for restructuring, maybe think of how well GW are coping in those terms instead.

And you absolutely know that I'm no company fanboy. They're a big company, they're not your mate, and they're doing better than ok in the current chaos.

This message was edited 5 times. Last update was at 2021/04/23 09:09:06


 
   
Made in us
Omnipotent Necron Overlord






Slipspace wrote:
 Xenomancers wrote:
 Daedalus81 wrote:
yukishiro1 wrote:
If five guys in grandma's basement keep screwing up your orders, you kind-of understand because it's five guys in grandma's basement. When a multi-billion dollar company keeps screwing up your orders, you rightly are going to have higher expectations.


Those five guys probably aren't running a warehouse, manufacturing plant, b&m stores, magazine, business intelligence, social media campaigns, ecommerce, point of sale, IP licensing, novels, benefits, etc.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't have expectations, but it isn't a simple problem, either.

The problem is actually simple though - build more production plants.


This from the person who earlier said "The reality is GW is a terribly run company with terrible leadership." You have no idea what you're talking about. Production facilities for a company like GW are literally the single biggest capital investment they will ever make. They used to have production in the US and they closed it because it wasn't making financial sense. The fixed costs of production facilities are also some of the largest fixed costs a company will have, outside of payroll. I strongly suspect GW simply doesn't produce the volume of product necessary to justify multiple factories at different locations around the globe.

GW is not a terribly run company. From a business perspective they're one of the best run companies in the world right now, seeing sustained growth in multiple areas and carrying no debt whatsoever while apparently continuing to grow their customer base. We can discuss how good they are as a games developer and I would agree they're actually pretty bad as the quality of their rules are some of the worst among the bigger games companies but the reality is that's not what the market seems to think is important.

Do you see me doubting their success?
Bad decisions still make lots of money with this customer base - they have a complete domination of the market too. Selling out of their new releases in minutes and pushing back release dates is costing them money (Millions). It has been costing them money for years and it is only going to get worse as the game grows in number of customers. Still leaves you with massive success when you sell practically everything you produce even if it's not enough to supply everyone.

In the past 10 years the Game has literally exploded it grows year to year without increasing their ability to supply. It is actually common sense this would happen.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
ccs wrote:
 Xenomancers wrote:
ccs wrote:
 Xenomancers wrote:
 Daedalus81 wrote:
yukishiro1 wrote:
If five guys in grandma's basement keep screwing up your orders, you kind-of understand because it's five guys in grandma's basement. When a multi-billion dollar company keeps screwing up your orders, you rightly are going to have higher expectations.


Those five guys probably aren't running a warehouse, manufacturing plant, b&m stores, magazine, business intelligence, social media campaigns, ecommerce, point of sale, IP licensing, novels, benefits, etc.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't have expectations, but it isn't a simple problem, either.

The problem is actually simple though - build more production plants.


This is pretty flawed logic.
There's a shipping/supply issue in general. If you can't ship finished product about easily, and you can't ship the raw materials about, how do you think you're going to produce & ship the materials to build those new production plants?
And then, after you build them, where's the raw materials they'll run on? If you can't get the stuff to plant A you won't be able to get it to plants A & B.


"Shipping/Supply" encompasses a lot of different types of problems. Some of which are local/regional/international . Which is why you build facilities all over the world.

GW was already having production problems before covid due to an extremely local problem (local power generation issues) that another facility in another town in England could have solved no problem and made the company millions more than they made. You also save on shipping costs when you can build your product closer to the source.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/994065/games-workshop-sales-worldwide-region/

Via this graph it is pretty clear that 3 regions are worthy of their own production centers.
US/UK/Europe

It is utter madness to not supply your customers with products they want to buy. Pandemics only make things harder - so why make it harder on yourself by limiting the amount of supply you can build by only producing at one main facility? I am not saying they should rush build facilities now. I'm saying they should already be constructed.



Look, you (and plenty of others) don't know what you're talking about. So just stop.
GW HAD production facilities for minis here in the USA at one time (maybe elsewhere as well, but I never paid attention). For assorted reasons they decided that no longer suited their needs/goals. I'm betting alot of $$$ was involved....
And as they haven't rebuilt/re-opened those facilities? I suspect it still doesn't suit their actual needs/goals - regardless of your ideas on the subject.

I know exactly what I am talking about. You hype a product and it sells out in 2 minutes and now people can't buy it - you lose money. To defend such nonsense is just nonsense. GW has grown to enormous levels. Even this new online advertisings and leak system is new...They have to increases their means of supply.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2021/04/23 18:34:59


If we fail to anticipate the unforeseen or expect the unexpected in a universe of infinite possibilities, we may find ourselves at the mercy of anyone or anything that cannot be programmed, categorized or easily referenced.
- Fox Mulder 
   
Made in us
Confessor Of Sins





Tacoma, WA, USA

 Xenomancers wrote:
I know exactly what I am talking about. You hype a product and it sells out in 2 minutes and now people can't buy it - you lose money. To defend such nonsense is just nonsense. GW has grown to enormous levels. Even this new online advertisings and leak system is new...They have to increases their means of supply.
They aren't losing money. They are forgoing sales they could have made by minimizing risk. They may sell out most products with tons of demand, which means they could have made more money. They choose to not make that sale to avoid ending up with a Dread Fleet or Blood of the Phoenix loss. Might not appear to be the smartest thing in the world, but it has been making them profit hand over fist. Might not be customer friendly, but it certainly seems to be good for business.
   
Made in gb
Longtime Dakkanaut




 Xenomancers wrote:

I know exactly what I am talking about. You hype a product and it sells out in 2 minutes and now people can't buy it - you lose money. To defend such nonsense is just nonsense. GW has grown to enormous levels. Even this new online advertisings and leak system is new...They have to increases their means of supply.


And how much would it cost chasing those sales you claim are there? Their growth isn't 'enormous'. Stock price is great but that's nor 'real'. That could tumble tomorrow. Gw have done great, yes, especially compared to the kirby years but this is a niche market and there are only do many gamers with.only so much time.

Factories are expensive to build, staff and run. And they won't be built tomorrow.

Truth is, you're asking gw to burn millions chasing thousands. It's not worth their time or investment.

greatest band in the universe: machine supremacy

"Punch your fist in the air and hold your Gameboy aloft like the warrior you are" 
   
Made in us
Daemonic Dreadnought





Eye of Terror

Slipspace wrote:
 Xenomancers wrote:
The problem is actually simple though - build more production plants.


This from the person who earlier said "The reality is GW is a terribly run company with terrible leadership." You have no idea what you're talking about. Production facilities for a company like GW are literally the single biggest capital investment they will ever make. They used to have production in the US and they closed it because it wasn't making financial sense. The fixed costs of production facilities are also some of the largest fixed costs a company will have, outside of payroll. I strongly suspect GW simply doesn't produce the volume of product necessary to justify multiple factories at different locations around the globe.

GW is not a terribly run company. From a business perspective they're one of the best run companies in the world right now, seeing sustained growth in multiple areas and carrying no debt whatsoever while apparently continuing to grow their customer base. We can discuss how good they are as a games developer and I would agree they're actually pretty bad as the quality of their rules are some of the worst among the bigger games companies but the reality is that's not what the market seems to think is important.

Agreed.

GW is one of the few companies where I enjoy the leadership as much as the product. The company is not defined by it's creative failures so much as it's balance sheet. In the long run, an expensive hobby is better when it's undergirded by sound financial planning to ensure it will stick around.

WRT manufacturing, I agree GW is 'efficient' by 2021 standards. But I wouldn't be too quick to discount concerns about localizing manufacturing the finished product. At the very least, it's a forward way of thinking.

Very fond of this group. Worth reading their whitepapers on 4th generation manufacturing. Would be surprised if GW is not paying attention.

Imagine if GW printed finished product on rings of machines like this, located locally in each consumer market, delivered within 24 hours of an order.



Deadnight wrote:
 Xenomancers wrote:

I know exactly what I am talking about. You hype a product and it sells out in 2 minutes and now people can't buy it - you lose money. To defend such nonsense is just nonsense. GW has grown to enormous levels. Even this new online advertisings and leak system is new...They have to increases their means of supply.


And how much would it cost chasing those sales you claim are there? Their growth isn't 'enormous'. Stock price is great but that's nor 'real'. That could tumble tomorrow. Gw have done great, yes, especially compared to the kirby years but this is a niche market and there are only do many gamers with.only so much time.

Factories are expensive to build, staff and run. And they won't be built tomorrow.

Truth is, you're asking gw to burn millions chasing thousands. It's not worth their time or investment.


Something to consider is the timing. There's rapid innovation going on with manufacturing. Large capital investments right now are going to be on machines that become obsolete in the 5 - 10 year range.

A company needs to be able to offset costs in that timeframe to afford what's next. Not sure GW is there yet...

   
Made in us
Pious Palatine




FezzikDaBullgryn wrote:
So with all the hype surrounding Cursed City having been pulled, and their recent attempts to "produce" extremely small order projects that inevitably sell out, create more FOMO, and then invariably make the hobby more press, I found myself wondering:

How much of this is COVID, and how much of this is GW's new Day 1 DLC EA/Activision style of business becoming the new Norm? The Catachan Colonel, the Indomitus Boxes, The announcement of books for pre-order only to completely miss the date set 3 months early, the elimination of Digital copies, the Day 1 update book to Drukhari, and the other non-customer friendly practices that have occurred.

In my mind this can't be all COVID. Amazon and other companies have had next to ZERO problems shipping their goods, creating new products, and marketing them, throughout the entire pandemic. Hell, we've had 2 of the best selling iPhones in their history during the pandemic. Either GW is a multi-billion dollar company that can leverage markets and be a big time player, or it's a struggling small time model trainset manufacturer out of the UK that can't ship more then 10k boxes to the US. I can't see how it could be both?

Where do we see GW's practices going in the next few years?

I think Covid has done a remarkable job in forcing back the curtain on what they are capable of as a producer of cheap toys. We can't vilify them for not creating enough toys, when they were always punching way above their weight anyway.


This whole thing mostly just proves that you have absolutely no idea of even super basic aspects of international trade or industrial production work and that you also have no sense of scale as far as economic entities are concerned.

Asking why GW can't do exactly what Amazon and Apple do is like asking why Myanmar can't match the US in military spending.



Automatically Appended Next Post:
bat702 wrote:
People are trying to say that games-workshop's codex balance problems and release issues are based on covid. The only thing I could possibly say is that their shipping would be possibly damaged this poorly, ie shipping books isnt a huge problem; and they have plenty of $$ of play-test and release the books. They can't even give chaos-marine's their 2nd wound.. thus they must just "really" want to release their special box sets, and thus; thats the real reason they refuse to make these rules updates/balance changes to 9th edition. Basically, they'd rather sell us more bang for our buck (cause of shipping reasons) and sell us their special edition box sets vs standard sets; because, games-workshop has to be benevolent in our eyes.


I had to check the National origin flair before I made fun of this for being nonsensical word salad.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
FezzikDaBullgryn wrote:
If you are good at something never do it for free.

GW is good at milking rules to people who are demonstrated to be too lazy to make an actual living ruleset. That's the crazy thing here. Fans could just stop using the rules, and tournaments could be like, we are JUST doing 8th here. Yeah, they might lose GW funds, but that's not where even 10% of the funding for those come from. It's from event tickets and merch revenue. Just STOP giving into FOMO and GW will stop playing that BS game. That all being said I need to go order the new Belakor. (/sarcasm)


See the reason this is stupid is because more people play the game then the people that break quarantine to hang out in your basement. We already have several divergent formats with GW's main rules as a baseline, if we did your plan every FLGS ends up with its own ruleset and 40k becomes an even dumber tower of babel.

The current system isn't...great, but it's still better than any of the community's stupid ideas.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2021/04/24 14:10:22



 
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut




Man the white Knights came out ready to defend GW

CaptainStabby wrote:
If Tyberos falls and needs to catch himself it's because the ground needed killing.

 jy2 wrote:
BTW, I can't wait to run Double-D-thirsters! Man, just thinking about it gets me Khorney.

 vipoid wrote:
Indeed - what sort of bastard would want to use their codex?

 MarsNZ wrote:
ITT: SoB players upset that they're receiving the same condescending treatment that they've doled out in every CSM thread ever.
 
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Man the white Knights came out ready to defend GW


Right, I forgot. Logical and pragmatic discussion about reality = white knight.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2021/04/24 15:23:04


 
   
Made in lt
Longtime Dakkanaut






I think it's just too many other things that happen at the same time: covid, brexit, warehouse change.
They did made MTO for Indomitus. I think they will also make one for Cursed City, maybe after they get their gak sorted out.
New models won't go OOP, just OSS until they also get it together. Just like Belakor, WHU Vampires, etc.

   
Made in gb
Did Fulgrim Just Behead Ferrus?






Spoiler:
 Daedalus81 wrote:
Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Man the white Knights came out ready to defend GW


Right, I forgot. Logical and pragmatic discussion about reality = white knight.


How dare you use those words on the Internet, and of Dakka of all places. Shame on you sir!
   
Made in us
Confessor Of Sins





Tacoma, WA, USA

 Daedalus81 wrote:
Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Man the white Knights came out ready to defend GW


Right, I forgot. Logical and pragmatic discussion about reality = white knight.
When you're a Black Knight, everyone not agreeing with you is a White Knight
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut




In fairness to the price/point I would like to interject a level of ... balance? into the discussion.

1994 the old pewter Devastator Marines were 3 pounds each which included the heavy weapon, without a heavy weapon they were 1 pound each. So a Devastator squad of 4 weapons, of your choice, with a sgt = 17 pounds....that was made out of Metal which is significantly more expensive than plastic.

2021 (27 years later): 32.5 Pounds. Or almost twice as much.

Inflation in that time period was 78% So the cost of models has outpaced inflation, but not by a huge amount so not a big deal right? except that those models are now made out of plastic.

Pewter runs anywhere from $15-30 per pound (cheaper if scrap, but I doubt GW would do that).

Plastic is about $1.50 a pound, or literally 10x cheaper and up to 20x cheaper. So cost of materials is down heavily in that regard.

As far as actually making them, Pewter has lower start up costs but the production costs long term are...high. Plastic has significantly higher startup costs but the mass production aspect is significantly cheaper by a rather large factor so if you are making a huge release...like GW does, Plastic is significantly cheaper.

Basically just pointing out that the price of minis is actually significantly higher than its original costs would dictate, but this is (in my opinion) a direct result of supply/demand. GW is the most popular therefore it can charge higher prices.

 Tomsug wrote:
Semper krumps under the radar

 
   
Made in us
Confessor Of Sins





Tacoma, WA, USA

You can't say plastic is cheaper than metal so GW is making more profit. Production cost of any model includes many more things than the input material. That is probably the least important line item of the entire production cost. You have to also consider the cost of the production tools, molds, labor, overhead (like rent and electricity), and design cost.

And while the overall level of inflation is a good general gauge, it isn't as important as the specific inflation of the things being used in production. I bet GW pays way more in tool cost today than the rate of inflation would indicate from 1994.
   
Made in us
Morally-Flexible Malleus Hearing Whispers




Just from the eyeball test this is an extremely good business practice. Nothing stays on the shelves longer than a few months. My GW store is the Mcdonald's McFlurry machine of Miniatures. Whenever I want one, they are out, not working, broken, will be up in the next 6-8 days, etc. They are creating mass demand of an extremely niche product by hyper focusing on the FOMO of hard core enthusiasts.

They are doing great, and there is very little left on the shelfs that they need to spend a ton of money for in a shipping warehouse. The only things that I am seeing is AoS Mini sets, which I am betting will follow the same practice next year. Create hyper powerful units, and create shortages.

The only thing I honestly can't figure out is how the average customer satisfaction index would play into this?

I suppose it doesn't matter when you are 110% focused on the guys attending tournaments each month.
   
Made in us
Powerful Pegasus Knight





Ultimately what this really says to me is that GW needs to scale up its production to meet demand. That means there is great growth potential. Imma invest in GW.
   
Made in ca
Regular Dakkanaut




 alextroy wrote:
 Daedalus81 wrote:
Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Man the white Knights came out ready to defend GW


Right, I forgot. Logical and pragmatic discussion about reality = white knight.
When you're a Black Knight, everyone not agreeing with you is a White Knight



When you're a White Knight, everyone not agreeing with you is a Black Knight ~8
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





Tresson wrote:
When you're a White Knight, everyone not agreeing with you is a Black Knight ~8


I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve!

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2021/04/25 00:54:36


 
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut




 alextroy wrote:
You can't say plastic is cheaper than metal so GW is making more profit. Production cost of any model includes many more things than the input material. That is probably the least important line item of the entire production cost. You have to also consider the cost of the production tools, molds, labor, overhead (like rent and electricity), and design cost.

And while the overall level of inflation is a good general gauge, it isn't as important as the specific inflation of the things being used in production. I bet GW pays way more in tool cost today than the rate of inflation would indicate from 1994.


Not only can I, But i did

I pointed out in my post the difference in initial investment, IE Tooling. but long term, its significantly cheaper than Pewter. Honestly, we are probably about 5-10 years at most away from having 3D printed models as nice as GW's stuff

 Tomsug wrote:
Semper krumps under the radar

 
   
Made in us
Daemonic Dreadnought





Eye of Terror

SemperMortis wrote:
Not only can I, But i did

I pointed out in my post the difference in initial investment, IE Tooling. but long term, its significantly cheaper than Pewter. Honestly, we are probably about 5-10 years at most away from having 3D printed models as nice as GW's stuff


Rachel Tongue fears the 5-axis FDM.

   
Made in us
Confessor Of Sins





Tacoma, WA, USA

SemperMortis wrote:
 alextroy wrote:
You can't say plastic is cheaper than metal so GW is making more profit. Production cost of any model includes many more things than the input material. That is probably the least important line item of the entire production cost. You have to also consider the cost of the production tools, molds, labor, overhead (like rent and electricity), and design cost.

And while the overall level of inflation is a good general gauge, it isn't as important as the specific inflation of the things being used in production. I bet GW pays way more in tool cost today than the rate of inflation would indicate from 1994.


Not only can I, But i did

I pointed out in my post the difference in initial investment, IE Tooling. but long term, its significantly cheaper than Pewter. Honestly, we are probably about 5-10 years at most away from having 3D printed models as nice as GW's stuff
"You can't say" is a way of saying "if you say that you are wrong". Ignoring the tooling cost of the two types of models is an incomplete argument. Making breakfast at home is cheaper than buying the same breakfast at a restaurant. That doesn't mean the restaurant is ripping you off because you don't charge yourself for labor or overhead.
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut




 alextroy wrote:
"You can't say" is a way of saying "if you say that you are wrong". Ignoring the tooling cost of the two types of models is an incomplete argument. Making breakfast at home is cheaper than buying the same breakfast at a restaurant. That doesn't mean the restaurant is ripping you off because you don't charge yourself for labor or overhead.


Luckily for you, I have both the time and the crayons to better explain this.

1: Ignoring the tooling cost of the two types of models is an incomplete argument: Yes, you are correct. This is called a strawman argument because nowhere has anyone said otherwise, in fact, in the original post I even said, and I quote
As far as actually making them, Pewter has lower start up costs but the production costs long term are...high. Plastic has significantly higher startup costs but the mass production aspect is significantly cheaper by a rather large factor so if you are making a huge release...like GW does, Plastic is significantly cheaper.


That roughly translates to the tooling costs. A plastic setup is MORE expensive initially but significantly cheaper long term. Pewter is significantly cheaper as far as initial investment IE tooling, but much more expensive long term because of cost of materials, labor, lower production value etc.

2: Your argument about breakfast:..... red herring argument...that or nonsensical argument, not really sure which.

The argument would be that making breakfast for yourself has cheaper startup costs, Frying pan, stove etc, but long term it has a higher production cost because you are literally only using your materials for yourself and your family where as a Restaurant has significantly higher startup costs, building, industrial cooking equipment etc, but has significantly LOWER production costs due to ability to mass produce product while making profit on said product.

The point being made was that plastic is MORE expensive short term but cheaper long term while Pewter is cheaper short term but significantly more expensive long term. Team that with the fact that GW has been using plastic for decades rather than pewter and we can deduce that costs should be down in a model for model comparison which in a vacuum would reduce the price of GW's models. I than used the extremely basic economics idea of supply and demand to introduce a cause for the prices not only not decreasing, but outpacing inflation.

 Tomsug wrote:
Semper krumps under the radar

 
   
Made in ca
Longtime Dakkanaut





 Slowroll wrote:

Bought any wood lately? It is TRIPLE the usual price. My cats favorite treat was absolutely unavailable for months.

Please stop feeding your cat wood.
   
Made in gb
Longtime Dakkanaut




Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Man the white Knights came out ready to defend GW


Seems the haters just hate objective discussion and anything that isn't apoplectic rage all of the time.

So not-interested.

greatest band in the universe: machine supremacy

"Punch your fist in the air and hold your Gameboy aloft like the warrior you are" 
   
Made in pl
Fixture of Dakka




Deadnight wrote:
Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Man the white Knights came out ready to defend GW


Seems the haters just hate objective discussion and anything that isn't apoplectic rage all of the time.

So not-interested.


The objective disscussion each year seems to go the same way. GW is working on it, they are just doing a restructurisation, give them time, wait till they do what ever they planned to do, then wait till they FAQ it, then wait till they index it. And suddenly you waited for 3 years, and just as they actually did fix something they do a full edition reset, so you didn't even get to play with the fixed stuff. It was like that in 8th and it is like that in 9th, and if those two editions are the most friendly GW ever was, then I fully expect them to have been doing the same thing in prior editions, under prior design teams and prior managment.

If you have to kill, then kill in the best manner. If you slaughter, then slaughter in the best manner. Let one of you sharpen his knife so his animal feels no pain. 
   
Made in at
Second Story Man





Austria

Deadnight wrote:
Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Man the white Knights came out ready to defend GW


Seems the haters just hate objective discussion and anything that isn't apoplectic rage all of the time.

So not-interested.


what objective discussion?
as soon as someone comes up with "plastic is not cheaper to produce" you know that it is over

Harry, bring this ring to Narnia or the Sith will take the Enterprise 
   
Made in us
Morally-Flexible Malleus Hearing Whispers




 Altruizine wrote:
 Slowroll wrote:

Bought any wood lately? It is TRIPLE the usual price. My cats favorite treat was absolutely unavailable for months.

Please stop feeding your cat wood.


Can we all please stop complaining and just slow clap this?


How could you say something so brave and yet so controversial?
   
 
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