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Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





I agree - it's a bad comparison, but...

As I've stated often - people vastly over-estimate the abilities of Eradicators and now to an extent Hammerheads as well.

This is a BH Ravager versus a HH using a CP for a wound reroll. The Ravager does nothing 25% of the time and the HH 20% of the time. The Ravager does equal to the HH 18%, better 5% of the time, close enough (8 to 9 damage) 9%, and worse about 44% of the time ( 4, 5, and 6 damage ).

Now since a CP reroll is just once so what is the HH without it? 41% chance to do nothing. If the Ravager rerolls a wound it does nothing 17% of the time instead. These factors will change depending on positioning and Montka and other buffs.

The Ravager is cheaper and is a very competent platform, but people don't spam them. Why? Overstacking anti-tank isn't how you win games and there's more than one way to skin a cat ( especially for DE ).

It is still a problem for Knights who have to move out of the all titanic mindset and need more tools, but that's sort of outside whether or not the HH will be a problem overall.



   
Made in it
Longtime Dakkanaut





 Void__Dragon wrote:
Spoletta wrote:
d6+2 damage, which becomes d6+1 against DR, which means a chance of 5/6 to kill.

8*5/6 = 6.66.

I rounded to 6.5.


Per your own math you were mathing them like they were over 12" away which means their damage is only D6, not D6+2.

Also, why are you comparing 810 points of Eradicators to four hammerheads which are atm about 605 points? Are you assuming hammerheads will have their price jacked up to be comparable? Like you assumed they would be BS4+ when doing the math in the other thread?

Your calculations appear consistently disingenuous and bluntly no one should take them seriously.


The 4 hammerheads you are talking about are 725 points, so first of all you have no idea what you are talking about.

No, I'm not assuming anything, and I even gave the benefit of the doubt and used the improbable value 3+ BS, just to show you how wrong you were.

The point that was made has never been on points. People were trying to show that if a Tau brings the full number of HH, then they dominate anything heavy, and I was showing them that there are factions which could have done that many times (some even did, we had a 3x6 salamander list getting results) and yet knights are still perfectly in the meta.
Yes, that other skew costs around 20% points more than that skew. Points were not the point of debate but if you want to make it part of the discussion feel free to increase by 20% the numbers of the HH, you will still discover than they can't hold a candle against other forms of AT.
They only excel against targets with a 4++, and get about on par with other forms of AT against 5++. And that's fine, that's the niche of this gun.
We can play this game with eradicators, ravagers, land speeders, chickens, devastators... name it.
You will always come to the conclusion that saying that railgun HH are somehow more lethal than what already existed is simply wrong.


Sometimes admitting that you are wrong is the right way to get out of the discussion, and there's no shame in it.
Trying to put words in other people's mouths to try to save face is instead very bad sport. Don't do it.
   
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I really don't understand the numbers that are being thrown around in this thread. Here is the average damage 4 Railguns do to a T8 model in a round with no re-rolls. 4 shots at BS3 = 2.68 hits. 2.68 hits wound on 3+ = 1.80 wounds. Dam is 6+d3+3(MW) [11 damage on average] = 19.8 pts of damage.

So, can someone tell me if/where I'm wrong. If I'm right then the whole 1 IK being eliminated per turn is wrong. Although I will admit that the "wounded" model is probably not going to function very well and it wouldn't take much above average rolling to destroy an IK.
   
Made in dk
Pyro Pilot of a Triach Stalker






Leo_the_Rat wrote:
I really don't understand the numbers that are being thrown around in this thread. Here is the average damage 4 Railguns do to a T8 model in a round with no re-rolls. 4 shots at BS3 = 2.68 hits. 2.68 hits wound on 3+ = 1.80 wounds. Dam is 6+d3+3(MW) [11 damage on average] = 19.8 pts of damage.

So, can someone tell me if/where I'm wrong. If I'm right then the whole 1 IK being eliminated per turn is wrong. Although I will admit that the "wounded" model is probably not going to function very well and it wouldn't take much above average rolling to destroy an IK.

They have an ability that lets them re-roll hit rolls, so they hit 89% of the time, BS 2+ hits 83% of the time. You are going to use a re-roll on one of your railguns. It's silly to leave it out. Saying that you won't have access to 1CP in T1/2 is silly. Longstrike is also BS 2+, that's a 97% chance to hit. An average of 3,64 hits. 2,43 wounds, very likely to include one failed wound roll, so that's another 0,67 wounds for 3,1 wounds after the re-roll. Magaera is 480 for 24 wounds, 20 pts per wound. 33 x 20 = 660. 685 pts (3x140 for HH + 185 for Longstrike + 8*10 for Drones) spent killing 660 pts. Now the remaining Tau army needs to do 340 pts using the remaining 1300 pts, which is pretty doable. But it's possible that HH are permanently -1 to hit from chaff launchers and 250 pts per model, you cannot really estimate efficiency without having the actual numbers and more importantly the remaining rules for the HH, Longstrike, markerlights and Stratagems.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2022/01/09 21:19:58


 
   
Made in gb
Ridin' on a Snotling Pump Wagon






With absolutely no disrespect or shame to those who present such things (seriously. Shine on you diamonds)?

Does anyone else go a bit cross eyed when folk post percentages and that?

Perfectly happy to accept it’s just me being thick!

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Made in dk
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 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
With absolutely no disrespect or shame to those who present such things (seriously. Shine on you diamonds)?

Does anyone else go a bit cross eyed when folk post percentages and that?

Perfectly happy to accept it’s just me being thick!

I feel the same way about HS and uni math, totally get you and thanks for being respectful, this sort of math is just fun for me.
   
Made in gb
Moustache-twirling Princeps




United Kingdom

All my local IK players have been running more Armigers recently.

...those intimidated by the T’au Empire’s new and improved railgun might want to have a sit down before finding out what their latest big gun looks like later in the week.

A Massive Battlebox Sees An Ancient Grudge Reignite in this week’s Sunday Preview - WarCom
I'm guessing the Stormsurge? Any predictions?

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/01/09 22:53:15


 
   
Made in us
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Noctis Labyrinthus

Spoletta wrote:


The 4 hammerheads you are talking about are 725 points, so first of all you have no idea what you are talking about.


685 actually, because I forgot the gun drones. Still over a hundred points difference.

No, I'm not assuming anything, and I even gave the benefit of the doubt and used the improbable value 3+ BS, just to show you how wrong you were.


"Improbable" lol, you're so salty my friend.

The point that was made has never been on points.


Idiotic statement. Debating anything in terms of 40k's gameplay and balance without factoring in points is useless, which I'm sure you know well. Stop trying to be disingenuous to muddy the discussion my friend.

People were trying to show that if a Tau brings the full number of HH, then they dominate anything heavy, and I was showing them that there are factions which could have done that many times (some even did, we had a 3x6 salamander list getting results) and yet knights are still perfectly in the meta.


Misleading statement, knights are "in the meta" because they are counter-meta. People don't build to be able to dunk a knight a turn because then they lose to the actual really strong armies like Drukhari.

Also irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that you write up misleading statistics to argue in bad faith and that you should really stop doing that.

Yes, that other skew costs around 20% points more than that skew. Points were not the point of debate but if you want to make it part of the discussion feel free to increase by 20% the numbers of the HH, you will still discover than they can't hold a candle against other forms of AT.


Four rail rifles are in fact more likely to dunk a knight rotating ion shields off the board than eighteen eradicators even before the mortal wounds are taken into account. I also didn't factor in Longstrike being BS2+.

So, in the context of this thread, yes, it would appear railguns are the superior anti-tank

They only excel against targets with a 4++, and get about on par with other forms of AT against 5++. And that's fine, that's the niche of this gun.
We can play this game with eradicators, ravagers, land speeders, chickens, devastators... name it.
You will always come to the conclusion that saying that railgun HH are somehow more lethal than what already existed is simply wrong.

Sometimes admitting that you are wrong is the right way to get out of the discussion, and there's no shame in it.


It's true, if this is your backhanded way to apologize I am a kind enough person to accept it.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/01/09 23:13:24


 
   
Made in us
Painlord Titan Princeps of Slaanesh




 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
With absolutely no disrespect or shame to those who present such things (seriously. Shine on you diamonds)?

Does anyone else go a bit cross eyed when folk post percentages and that?

Perfectly happy to accept it’s just me being thick!


That's why I broke it down the way I did. I didn't want to get bogged down in details. I just wanted the basic info and I couldn't make heads or tails of what other people were writing.

@beast_gts- The ancient grudge article is about AoS and has nothing to do with 40K.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/01/09 23:30:35


 
   
Made in gb
Moustache-twirling Princeps




United Kingdom

Leo_the_Rat wrote:
@beast_gts- The ancient grudge article is about AoS and has nothing to do with 40K.
It's the week ahead article and includes the quote I mentioned...
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut




NE Ohio, USA

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
With absolutely no disrespect or shame to those who present such things (seriously. Shine on you diamonds)?

Does anyone else go a bit cross eyed when folk post percentages and that?

Perfectly happy to accept it’s just me being thick!


What, you don't find their ramblings amusing?
* My favorite part is always when they do their own math wrong. Happens every time in this type of thread.
* Close runners up are ludicrous claims. I think the highlight this time is the assertion that this is not a good AT gun.
72" range (terrain dependent of course), hits reliably, wounds reliably, pretty much bypasses all the targets Saves except for FNP/wound limitations, and deals out a combined minimum of 10 damage. And maybe 11 or 12 damage. Hmm. Ok, MAYBE a Lemen Russ & things with either 12w or some sort of Quantum Shielding will survive this by the grace of the Dice Gods. And Doomsday Arc, Land Raiders, & vehicles with 13+W will only be severely 'd up. Big Knights & LoWs will of course survive (though a 10-12 pt hole still hurts). Anything smaller? :(
But yeah, this thing isn't good at AT work....
   
Made in us
Terrifying Doombull




 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
With absolutely no disrespect or shame to those who present such things (seriously. Shine on you diamonds)?

Does anyone else go a bit cross eyed when folk post percentages and that?

Perfectly happy to accept it’s just me being thick!


My new favorite is going to have to be unlabeled tables with no context that point to a zoomed in version with completely different numbers.
That's just the best gibberish masquerading as 'analysis' you can get for the money.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/01/10 00:50:56


Efficiency is the highest virtue. 
   
Made in it
Longtime Dakkanaut





ccs wrote:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
With absolutely no disrespect or shame to those who present such things (seriously. Shine on you diamonds)?

Does anyone else go a bit cross eyed when folk post percentages and that?

Perfectly happy to accept it’s just me being thick!


What, you don't find their ramblings amusing?
* My favorite part is always when they do their own math wrong. Happens every time in this type of thread.
* Close runners up are ludicrous claims. I think the highlight this time is the assertion that this is not a good AT gun.
72" range (terrain dependent of course), hits reliably, wounds reliably, pretty much bypasses all the targets Saves except for FNP/wound limitations, and deals out a combined minimum of 10 damage. And maybe 11 or 12 damage. Hmm. Ok, MAYBE a Lemen Russ & things with either 12w or some sort of Quantum Shielding will survive this by the grace of the Dice Gods. And Doomsday Arc, Land Raiders, & vehicles with 13+W will only be severely 'd up. Big Knights & LoWs will of course survive (though a 10-12 pt hole still hurts). Anything smaller? :(
But yeah, this thing isn't good at AT work....


I think that no one is claiming that this is not a good AT.
The claim being made is that other faction have possessed better forms of AT all this time, so going chicken little now is a bit out of place.
   
Made in us
Confessor Of Sins





Tacoma, WA, USA

Here are some numbers to contemplate:

A RG HH with BS 3+ firing (with built in re-roll to hit) at at T8 target will do no damage 40.75% of the time. It has an even chance of doing 10, 11, or 12 points of damage (19.75% each). So results are roughly 40% 0, 20% 10, 20% 11, and 20% 12 damage.

This means the chance to kill a Knight (T8, 24 Wounds) is (roughly):
  • 1 HH: 0%, with a 20% chance to bracket
  • 2 HH: 4%, with a 52% chance to bracket
  • 3 HH: 26%, with a 74% chance to bracket
  • 4 HH: 51%, with a 87% chance to bracket

  • So, Knight should be aware of the threat of multiple HHs, but not super worried about it either.
       
    Made in it
    Longtime Dakkanaut





     Void__Dragon wrote:

    Bla bla bla


    You are clearly too bitter on this to have a discussion.
    No matter what I say, or what math you are provided, you won't move from your position, so just enjoy your game and keep screaming at the sky falling.

    Condensed version for everyone else:
    If you have 4++ models around then these things are dangerous, if you don't then keep going nothing is changing.
       
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    Mississippi

    Eh, why do I have a feeling that while everyone is complaining about the HH's, Broadsides will be the ones that really cause folks headaches? I think there's little doubt their weapons will be getting a boost as well, they can come in 3's per slot and two rail shots apiece (as it stands now, who knows what it will be when the codex drops).

    It never ends well 
       
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     Stormonu wrote:
    Eh, why do I have a feeling that while everyone is complaining about the HH's, Broadsides will be the ones that really cause folks headaches? I think there's little doubt their weapons will be getting a boost as well, they can come in 3's per slot and two rail shots apiece (as it stands now, who knows what it will be when the codex drops).

    Perfectly reasonable, but they were fine in 8th, exactly because they come in 3s so I find it doubtful they got the same treatment, they're probably not that good at the moment because of pts and missions. The railgun HH was criminally understatted in 6th-8th. AP1 S10 was as good as it got back in the day, but then S7 AP- became the best and then S7 AP-1 D2.
       
    Made in us
    Armored Iron Breaker





    Supposedly, the Riptide is getting moved into the HS slot. So you're less likely to see these than you think.

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     RaptorusRex wrote:
    Supposedly, the Riptide is getting moved into the HS slot. So you're less likely to see these than you think.
    Only relevant if the Riptide is actually good. If they lose their 3++, which I fear will happen, and Savior Protocols goes away a 300 pts Riptide becomes a lot less attractive.
       
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    Waaagh! Ork Warboss




    Italy

     RaptorusRex wrote:
    Supposedly, the Riptide is getting moved into the HS slot. So you're less likely to see these than you think.


    A patrol and a spearhead allow 8 HS. Slots availability isn't an issue in 9th.

    If they become LoW than yeah, you're really less likely to see these than you think. Morkanaut/gorkanaut style.

     
       
    Made in it
    Focused Fire Warrior





    Riptides have the same statline as a LevDread, if those aren't LoW I doubt the Riptide will be either.


     
       
    Made in it
    Longtime Dakkanaut





    Tau already have a LoW in the dex, I don't think they will give one more.
       
    Made in gb
    Longtime Dakkanaut




    Spoletta wrote:
    Tau already have a LoW in the dex, I don't think they will give one more.


    So did Orks to be fair.
       
    Made in de
    Ork Admiral Kroozin Da Kosmos on Da Hulk






    Aenar wrote:Riptides have the same statline as a LevDread, if those aren't LoW I doubt the Riptide will be either.


    Spoletta wrote:Tau already have a LoW in the dex, I don't think they will give one more.


    GW cared about neither of those things for orks.

    Earth is not flat
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    Decrepit Dakkanaut





     Jidmah wrote:
    Aenar wrote:Riptides have the same statline as a LevDread, if those aren't LoW I doubt the Riptide will be either.


    Spoletta wrote:Tau already have a LoW in the dex, I don't think they will give one more.


    GW cared about neither of those things for orks.


    Feasible, but the 'Nauts went from 18 wounds to where they are now. Something that is 14 would be stretching it a bit, I think.


    This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/01/10 13:55:37


       
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    The dark hollows of Kentucky

     Daedalus81 wrote:
     Jidmah wrote:
    Aenar wrote:Riptides have the same statline as a LevDread, if those aren't LoW I doubt the Riptide will be either.


    Spoletta wrote:Tau already have a LoW in the dex, I don't think they will give one more.


    GW cared about neither of those things for orks.


    Feasible, but the 'Nauts went from 18 wounds to where they are now. Something that is 14 would be stretching it a bit, I think.



    'Naught went from 18 to 24 wounds, an increase of 6. Riptides are currently 14 wounds. Give them the same increase of 6 wounds and they'd have 20 wounds, same as the Stormsurge, which is a LoW. All of the Spartan chassis LoWs are 20W as well, so definitely feasible. Those things are pretty big.
       
    Made in it
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    Yeah, size wise the riptide could be a LoW.
       
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    The dark hollows of Kentucky

    What size base are they on?
       
    Made in us
    Longtime Dakkanaut




    120 ovals. The Stormsurge is on 170 ovals, the same size as Knights.

    This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/01/10 14:35:43


     
       
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    The dark hollows of Kentucky

    Aren't Wraithknights on 120s?
       
     
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