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 lord_blackfang wrote:

 nels1031 wrote:

robbienw wrote:
US GW fans, prepare for your price rise to cover the tariff costs.

At least its not the 20% that the EU got! Thanks Brexiteers!

EU prices didn't go up at all from Brexit

 ced1106 wrote:


That's the problem. That's the problem some have had for *decades* about China. China's strategy is to own the infrastructure, often by subsidies and dumping, not just for gaming, but everything "Made in China". Got something "Made in China"? Well, odds are your country -- not just the USA -- can't afford to make it anymore b/c China owns the market.

China didn't make anyone kill their own industry, your own dumbgak capitalist class did that.

Good point, I've been seeing so many politicians this week claim that tariffs will doom us to poverty while at the same time downplaying that the EU outsourced everything, and then some to China, and other countries. Ral Partha used to cast figures in the EU, and the US, and make a profit somehow. It will take time, but maybe we can bring back what was outsourced.

M.

 techsoldaten wrote:

In the back of my head, I have a red line when it comes to infantry models. If the cost per model goes past $5, that's going to trigger my exploitive pricing flag. A basic battleline miniature must remain below the price of a decent cheeseburger for me to see value in buying a box of them.

Well good news, your decent cheeseburger will be costing $10 in no time so mini's will still be "cheap".

The trouble with all of this is the deliberate idiotic uncertainty which impacts everything. This will hit smaller businesses who can't plug the gap and will be forced to raise their prices. It also becomes much harder to support somewhere local when you have no money to pick and choose as the consumer. It forces you to pick the cheaper, worse option and so this means everyone suffers. As the slash and burn continues and disposable income fizzles away, hobbies will be a thing of the past! But who needs art and creativity when you can work until death because you won't be able to afford to retire.

Does this mean that when we get a larger than usual price rise this year, in order to absorb the tarrif hit, we can collectively blame the US?

Also doesn't domestic production as a motivator kinda require people to want to buy from the US?

....

As for GW? They were going to raise prices anyways.

Dudeface wrote:
Does this mean that when we get a larger than usual price rise this year, in order to absorb the tarrif hit, we can collectively blame the US?

Yes! Specifically people engaging in magical thinking that somehow this will lead to them being allowed to shirk their civic duty to pay taxes, and those looking to *checks notes* hurt the 'mainstream media' by crashing the world economy and leveraging gigantic tarrifs on such mighty adversaries as Fiji.

Dudeface wrote:
Does this mean that when we get a larger than usual price rise this year, in order to absorb the tarrif hit, we can collectively blame the US?

Also doesn't domestic production as a motivator kinda require people to want to buy from the US?

I think the reason we haven't seen a GW price rise so far this year (they're usually in March) is because they were waiting for further news on tariffs to determine any required regional changes.

GW have a couple of interesting factors in play regarding tariffs:
1) Manufacturing is very difficult for them to relocate. Most plastic kits won't justify creation of more than one injection mold, and there's a level of risk involved in shipping these back & forth across the Atlantic. Their previous US manufacturing location focused more on resin models and possibly some very high volume plastic like starter sets where multiple molds could be justified.

2) However they also have a lot of leeway over the costs they declare for tariffs, given that their margins are so incredibly high. Raw plastic sprues for a $100 kit shipped across the Atlantic can potentially be 'worth' just a few dollars if they want it to be, and therefore attract only a few tens of cents in tariffs. If we end up seeing GW US price rises of <= 10% it means they're likely taking advantage of this.

 TalonZahn wrote:
Jim Cramer just said the tariffs won't work, so that's a 100% guarantee they will.

I mean both sides are correct here. The tariffs will work, but that's because Trump is not being honest about the true aim. If the goal of these tariffs was actually to bring manufacturing home again they would be introduced gradually over a long period to give businesses time to build up the required infrastructure.

Of course the actual aim is to decimate the economy, create mass layoffs & an artificial recession, and provide opportunities for the super-rich to buy up everything on the cheap yet again. Meanwhile the Trump admin can 'negotiate' with nations or corporations for 'deals' (bribes) to open up exceptions. Barring a miracle this goal will definitely be acheived and the tariffs will have worked.

 Olthannon wrote:
The trouble with all of this is the deliberate idiotic uncertainty which impacts everything. This will hit smaller businesses who can't plug the gap and will be forced to raise their prices. It also becomes much harder to support somewhere local when you have no money to pick and choose as the consumer. It forces you to pick the cheaper, worse option and so this means everyone suffers. As the slash and burn continues and disposable income fizzles away, hobbies will be a thing of the past! But who needs art and creativity when you can work until death because you won't be able to afford to retire.

Arguably, tariffs make the geopolitical situation more predictable.

Right now, the US economy operates off 3 pillars:

- Spending by the rich. Households earning over $250,000 annually are responsible for approximately 49.7% of all consumer spending. That's about 10% of the population.

- Spending by government. Federal, state and local spending represents about 44% of US GDP. That number continues rising and mostly represents unproductive / administrative labor.

- Spending on AI. Aside from food, the only must-have commodity the world over is AI chips. Spending in this sector is around $300B annually and increasing rapidly. As it grows, it takes away jobs that would have gone to the professional class. Doctors, lawyers, accountants, warehouse managers, etc are becoming obsolete. So the spending in this area is not an accurate measure of economic impact, it's a much more significant pillar than the numbers indicate.

This situation is extraordinarily precarious for the vast majority of people. The average couple can't afford a starter home in the city they live in until they reach their 50s. The average household carries over $100k in debt. Average household savings is somewhere around $6,000. While I haven't done a deep dive, my understanding is the situation is similar throughout Europe. There is no fertile ground for hobbyists, there's a reason GW derives so much revenue from IP these days. People can't afford the models and have nowhere to play.

None of this is sustainable. I would have a hard time calling it predictable at any level, but especially for those who don't have a government job and aren't in the top 10% income bracket. Their prospects over the next 5 years will be harsh under the current economic regime.

The tariff situation signals the US is moving from a heavily financialized economy to a manufacturing economy. It's establishing reciprocal rules for open market operations that normalize the cost of trade and equalize competition. Yes, from the perspective of a bureaucrat whose world view is limited to operating in the order that's been in place since 1945, it must all seem baffling and uncertain. But some things are very predictable under this new scenario:

1) Employment in energy, mining, raw materials, logistics, transportation, new housing, and automation sectors will go up in every country subject to tariffs, subject to their ability to support them. That's just the manufacturing base every country will need to operate in this environment. Optimizing extraction and transportation to take advantage of advances in artificial intelligence will be key.

2) Massive innovations in automation, robotics, material science, etc will occur to support this change. There are so many useful patents locked up in Federal Labs for lack of avenues for commercialization it's not funny. Paths will be opening by necessity and there will be a lot of new businesses focused exclusively on bringing these into the commercial realm.

3) New businesses, the likes of which we can't conceive of right now, will emerge. The really useful ones will get scooped up by the likes of Amazon. The ones that don't return 90%+ profit margins on scale will become small businesses. Characteristically, they will operate on distributed models related to value added manufacturing. Thing many small fabs operating out from all over the place to avoid crossing borders.

4) There will be a lot of capital wasted on failed experiments in the new economy.

5) This will not be a US-only phenomenon. This will be the model for every advanced economy. We're at the beginning of a new era.

From the standpoint of income distribution, a dynamic field of small, distributed manufacturing concerns is preferable to the financialized economy, where wealth only goes to the top. I prefer it over the vision of the US / Europe as a giant bank served by a giant military kept functioning by lots of poor people delivering food to bankers / government employees sustaining themselves off cheap imports manufactured by the banker's foreign clients.

If you want certainty, the number of people who will be engaged in the hobby in 10 years under the existing regime will be zero. Poverty kills the imagination and the ability to appreciate art in general. There are no indicators that show the disposable income of the lower / middle classes increasing or costs for miniatures going down. For the last 30 years, they have only gone one direction.

This new economic milieu comes with uncertainty, but it's centered on transparency and reciprocity. To the extent those virtues can be embraced, there's a chance people will enjoy spare time and disposable income in the future. They will probably need some distractions from all the change that's going on in the world.

Couple of articles on the expected impact on board and other games. Makes for some pretty grim reading...

https://www.polygon.com/tabletop-games/552558/tabletop-panic-tariffs-on-china-layoffs-bankruptcy-gama

https://stonemaiergames.com/the-darkest-timeline/

 techsoldaten wrote:

The tariff situation signals the US is moving from a heavily financialized economy to a manufacturing economy. It's establishing reciprocal rules for open market operations that normalize the cost of trade and equalize competition.

except it isn't. The current capitalist dogma of exponential profits at any cost means that the scatter gun, random way these tariffs are being doled out ensures that manufacturing will go to the next cheapest place with the next best infrastructure. Instead of buying all your shrimp from India, you'll get it from Peru.
the current model is obsessed with extracting the most profit over the shortest time frame, and none of that involves bringing the jobs back, because then they'd have to pay to build in the us, and pay us workers us rates. It's too expensive. long-term investments are of no interest to the same class of people who think that growth is unlimited on a planet with limited resources.

The cold hard is that there are some useful idiots in charge, and a few shysters who want to get rich quick then cash out have their ear for the time being, and it's going to make the poor even poorer. It's not going to be a new golden era, it's going to be a new age of cronyism.

And games workshop will raise their prices.

GW will always raise their prices, tariffs or no.
Resin printers go brrrr.

 CthuluIsSpy wrote:
GW will always raise their prices, tariffs or no.
Resin printers go brrrr.

With the tariffs for China, it might be cheaper for Americans to buy models than resin

It's throwing some of the Kickstarters I've backed into disarray as suddenly the costs just shot up.

It's a mess.

The obvious workaround for GW is to print boxes and do final packaging in the US and import the sprues declared as their material value in plastic (almost nothing) before the final product (the boxed miniature set) is "made in America".

Pretty much any company big enough to wrangle a setup like this will make it happen, it will create a few US jobs, as intended, but not enough to offset the inevitable US recession/ depression which is now baked in for the rest of the twenties.

scarletsquig wrote:
The obvious workaround for GW is to print boxes and do final packaging in the US and import the sprues declared as their material value in plastic (almost nothing) before the final product (the boxed miniature set) is "made in America".

It's still a greater base cost than before. It also necessitates extra risk, facilities and staff than before.

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 CthuluIsSpy wrote:
GW will always raise their prices, tariffs or no.
Resin printers go brrrr.

With the tariffs for China, it might be cheaper for Americans to buy models than resin

Currently, as part of the Spring Sale, a 1000mg bottle of ABS-like resin from Elegoo or AnyCubic sells for around $15.

Were that price to double, it's still cheaper than a box of Chaos Space Marine Chosen at $65. And you could print like 10 boxes of them with a single bottle.

The chemical content of ABS-like resin is something like titanium dioxide, methyl acrylate, trimethylcyclohexyl acrylate, ethyl phenyl phosphinate, polymers and dyes.

That's not a complicated challenge to formulate, bottle and label. If the price point went too far past to $30 a bottle, someone could set up with a contract manufacturing organization to make profits off the margins without any capital expenses related to manufacturing equipment.

 techsoldaten wrote:


This new economic milieu comes with uncertainty, but it's centered on transparency and reciprocity. To the extent those virtues can be embraced, there's a chance people will enjoy spare time and disposable income in the future. They will probably need some distractions from all the change that's going on in the world.

Nah. Manufacturing of any kind created / propped up / preserved by the artificial protection of tariffs isn't ever gonna be viable / sustainable long term. It will also stifle innovation, not promote it.

https://youtu.be/5t5QK03KXPc?si=A7wN-R3KAVI5FHvl&t=153

Sunny Side Up wrote:

 techsoldaten wrote:


This new economic milieu comes with uncertainty, but it's centered on transparency and reciprocity. To the extent those virtues can be embraced, there's a chance people will enjoy spare time and disposable income in the future. They will probably need some distractions from all the change that's going on in the world.

Nah. Manufacturing of any kind created / propped up / preserved by the artificial protection of tariffs isn't ever gonna be viable / sustainable long term. It will also stifle innovation, not promote it.

https://youtu.be/5t5QK03KXPc?si=A7wN-R3KAVI5FHvl&t=153

Lol. Then explain the tariffs of every country that manufactures and exports to the US.

 techsoldaten wrote:

Lol. Then explain the tariffs of every country that manufactures and exports to the US.

They create inefficient, subsidized sectors, such as mining and steel in most European countries. They are there for legacy reasons and because it helps getting certain segments of the population vote for you. Same as Republicans hope they might gain from artificially protecting steel industries in the US, most likely.

But they aren't competitive for a reason. If your country is rich enough, it can indulge in that for a while. But it's expensive.

And it's knowing why you do it and what you pay for it. You impose tariffs on industries you want to protect for social peace, security and cohesion and maybe some political captial for the next election, you pay for it in economic potential. Which is fine. But selling it as something that is economically beneficial is dumb.

I think there are massive opportunities here for UK/EU entities to put some infrastructure in the US. We were in the process of doing it just before Covid. Think it’s time to revisit. It’s not all doom and gloom.

From what I gather GW has looked into printing but has never made the outlay as the infrastructure/costs just didn't make any sense over shipping in from China.

Tricks like packaging to make it "made in America" is something GW could potentially achieve, though it would still come with increased cost as now they have to open a packing factory; ship packing materials and models over; hope that finished plastic models can be declared at their plastic and not product value etc...

And as noted above all those things take time to put into place. Even for a big firm like GW they aren't super-massive that they can just do this over a few months. Accepting that we'll need several months of the situation stabilising before firms the size of GW will want to make moves.

Esp since GW doesn't take on debt so this is all out of pocket.



The upshot is even if they can lower the impact it will still cause a rippling impact in a firm that honestly was likely wanting to just build another UK based factory to increase their core output.



A few larger firms like Wayland (bolted to Warcradle) might well be able to leverage a few deals to survive well; but almost all the smaller firms (and that's honestly the vast majority of the market) are likely going to suffer. Much like the UK sector got hit hard by Brexit, those smaller firms are basically going to get knocked down to home-distribution. On small firms already running on tight margins that's likely going to hurt them really hard.


There is every chance that even with a healthy gaming market in general right now; we might well see several firms simply close shop. Be it from financial pressures; massive loss of sales or simply the fact that organising, shipping and navigating the legal business world becomes so dynamic and complicated that they just throw their hands up and go get a regular job.

When you've a market where multiple lines are quite literally one-man-in-a-shed or small family businesses there's a strong chance of that happening.


A few larger firms might well use this to buy up moulds and product lines, but anyone who saw Wayland take on Dystopian wars will know that such transfers don't always go smoothly when they are prompted by sudden financial pressures. Plus those larger firms have limited resources too so they can't just go buying multiple smaller failing/closing firms at once.




The tariffs isn't just a case of the ultimate costs and what things settle down as; its also how long we have to live through a period of uncertain conditions and changing situations. Not to mention this is all hot on the heels of Brexit in the UK and the Pandemic which all already impacted these firms.

Honestly I can see big firms like GW weathering it with an inevitable price rise which will feel worse because everyone is going to go through another "everything I buy went up so even if my % of income hobby spending doesn't change the actual amount I can spend will be lower."

Middleweight firms will ride it out too but we might well see them having to survive on much more limited markets and see growth of their games overseas dramatically drop off. We could also see significant supply issues which will further stall growth.
All this could actually lead to big firms (like GW) having another bumper push up because they remain the big name everyone can play and access


Small firms - I predict we could see some just go under. WE might see them merging with bigger firms as subbrands or teaming up if they can; but otherwise they might just go under




Ultimately we could see the pandemic induced boom of wargaming growing hit a sudden wall. A wall that I suspect many other markets will also hit.



Automatically Appended Next Post:

rich1231 wrote:
I think there are massive opportunities here for UK/EU entities to put some infrastructure in the US. We were in the process of doing it just before Covid. Think it’s time to revisit. It’s not all doom and gloom.

The question is - with what money?
Setting up overseas production facilities isn't easy and could require firms to double in size and operational costs just to maintain a market that they were surviving on before the tariffs. Ergo you're potentially doubling the operating costs and requiring a big upfront investment to set things up just to maintain the same market that you were surviving on before. This isn't firms investing profits to expand into a new thriving and growing market, thus creating exciting opportunities to increase income.

 techsoldaten wrote:

The chemical content of ABS-like resin is something like titanium dioxide, methyl acrylate, trimethylcyclohexyl acrylate, ethyl phenyl phosphinate, polymers and dyes.

That's not a complicated challenge to formulate, bottle and label. If the price point went too far past to $30 a bottle, someone could set up with a contract manufacturing organization to make profits off the margins without any capital expenses related to manufacturing equipment.

Maybe if there's excess capacity to manufacture it. If there's no excess capacity then that'll drive up prices as the manufacturing capacity becomes more costly. More capacity might be possible in the long term but nobody knows what the plan is.

Even if something is easy to make (I don't know if ABS resin is, but it seems inexpensive, so maybe) it still needs infrastructure, base chemicals and people who know what they're doing to make it (ie not me). That requires somebody to take a leap to invest in it, train people, etc. If the base chemicals still need to be imported... well you might still be back to square one.

Yeah. I'd expect many companies will wait a bit before building huge plants in the US. It's a pricy prospect at the best of times, otherwise they'd already done it. And now, just after we've burned some 2.5 Trillion dollars, seems sketch. Also the US market might change / shrink / go into recession and / or Trump might just reverse the tariffs again as he often did and / or the administration might come up with other funky rules about foreign companies building / producing in the US. Seems like some big gambles and uncertainties there.

I think the fantasy economics and odd ideological beliefs make this a pointless thread to debate in (I like the idea the US gov cares about debt and wanted to tank its economy to pay it off ).

But on the narrow impact of tariffs - we are going to see less games come to market, we are going to see creative accounting (GW gets to ship in products at cost prices not finished retail prices to its US arm, retailers might not be able to buy at the same - other models used before include factory 'subscription fees' paid by companies so goods ship well below their value, but the manufacturer is getting mostly paid through the subscription, etc. etc.), we are going to see some companies and kickstarters downsize or go under.

Hopefully the 'flight to quality' persists, that people when collapsing discretionary spend stick with what matters to them most, if we are incredibly lucky we will see game companies upping the rules and play of their games to compete on engagement now FOMO and similar are impacted. Imagine a certain games company having to have a product that consistently engaged its customers to ensure they continue buying!

I mean, sure it's all speculation and nobody knows 100% what happens before it happens. Your own fantasy economics on "the narrow impact of tariffs" aren't any less fantastical than others. But that's why discussion threads/forums exist, no?

Sunny Side Up wrote:

 techsoldaten wrote:

Lol. Then explain the tariffs of every country that manufactures and exports to the US.

They create inefficient, subsidized sectors, such as mining and steel in most European countries. They are there for legacy reasons and because it helps getting certain segments of the population vote for you. Same as Republicans hope they might gain from artificially protecting steel industries in the US, most likely.

But they aren't competitive for a reason. If your country is rich enough, it can indulge in that for a while. But it's expensive.

And it's knowing why you do it and what you pay for it. You impose tariffs on industries you want to protect for social peace, security and cohesion and maybe some political captial for the next election, you pay for it in economic potential. Which is fine. But selling it as something that is economically beneficial is dumb.

Except of course in the case of steel it is preciscly as Tech pointed out, seeing as China subsidises it's steel industry to sabotage other producing countries and to achieve a market strangle hold.

Not Online!!! wrote:


Except of course in the case of steel it is preciscly as Tech pointed out, seeing as China subsidises it's steel industry to sabotage other producing countries and to achieve a market strangle hold.

100%. And it's very obviously a sector where free trade never really took off / worked. Not least because the infrastructure and manpower makes it a sector relevant to any given society that probably shouldn't just be at the whim of Reagonomics. But again, China is subsidizing / paying for it for geo-strategic reasons, maybe less nostalgic/politically enforced ones that Germany keeping Coal Miners happy and employed for decades beyond economic viability. But the end result is still an industry that is a net-drain on national resources you'll have to balance out somewhere else.

I don't think tanking the global economy will be good for most businesses. Small firms that operate with small margins will be in jeopardy, and that's basically all non-GW tabletop wargame companies. And this will hit GW too, and at least Americans can expect heavy price increases. Though I suspect with the rapid increase of prices of everything, that trying to wage a trade war against the the rest of the world will cause, the price of the toy soldiers might not be most pressing of the concerns.

 TalonZahn wrote:
Do more reading Tasty, Canada leverages some HUGE tariffs on certain U.S. products.

I wrote Cambodia, not Canada.
Canada wasn't included in this round of global tariffs as they have their own other thing going on.

Cambodia certainly doesn't have some of the world's highest tariffs on US imports, but were hit by some of the highest 'reciprocal' tariffs, which just happens to match the same formula as everyone else.

The Black Adder wrote:

 techsoldaten wrote:

The chemical content of ABS-like resin is something like titanium dioxide, methyl acrylate, trimethylcyclohexyl acrylate, ethyl phenyl phosphinate, polymers and dyes.

That's not a complicated challenge to formulate, bottle and label. If the price point went too far past to $30 a bottle, someone could set up with a contract manufacturing organization to make profits off the margins without any capital expenses related to manufacturing equipment.

Maybe if there's excess capacity to manufacture it. If there's no excess capacity then that'll drive up prices as the manufacturing capacity becomes more costly. More capacity might be possible in the long term but nobody knows what the plan is.

Even if something is easy to make (I don't know if ABS resin is, but it seems inexpensive, so maybe) it still needs infrastructure, base chemicals and people who know what they're doing to make it (ie not me). That requires somebody to take a leap to invest in it, train people, etc. If the base chemicals still need to be imported... well you might still be back to square one.

You could start such a business without needing to leave your bedroom. Purchasing equipment or hiring specialists would be counterproductive. At most, you would need a warehouse for receiving an shipping.

Each resin has an MSDS spelling out the photoactive ingredients and most materials. It doesn't spell out the mix. Bare bones, to get to where there's a product ready to ship:

- Hire a grad student to work out the mix and test it. For something like this, I would expect 2 - 4 weeks for a report.

- Get a quote from a toll manufacturer, a business who just does chemical formulation customers. Shop it around other companies listed in the SOCMA website. There are hundreds in North America and Europe.

- Have a batch made. The toll manufacturer is doing the bottling and labelling. After 2 months lead time, all you are doing is receiving a stack of palettes.

- Market the resin through eBay, social media and YouTube reviews. Make ridiculous, audacious claims about what is actually an identical product.

- Either ship the resin from a warehouse or pay a company to drop ship. Commercial space is cheap where I am, it would be a toss up whether to do that in-house or not.

Were I pursuing this, I would target a unit cost of $6 - $8 for the first batch and to have it ready to ship within 4 months. The initial target price would be half what Elegoo and AnyCubic are selling for. I wouldn't mind operating at a loss at first year - marketing and shipping would be the big overhead expenses. The goal in the first year is to build a big base of loyal customers as fast as possible.

If the product catches on, move up the food chain from a toll manufacturer to an actual CMO like WR Grace, Dow, Hexion, or BASF to produce in volume. At that point, the batch cost goes up because you are making more but the unit cost goes down by 25% - 50%. That's where you actually make money.

Just understand all the concerns you listed - capacity, infrastructure, base chemicals, expertise - that's not stuff any small business does in-house. You would not want the big capital expense of a formulator that sits idle 99% of the time where there's a company who can make your supply for you for ~10% of revenues. You don't want to hire chemists with PhDs, you want to hire shipping specialists with high school degrees. Ideally, you don't want an office and you don't want employees. You want a po box where mail arrives and someone handling everything else elsewhere. You want to spend your time identifying the 1000s of other chemicals imported into North America / Europe and figure out how do the same in many other areas.