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Fuegan
Storm Guardians
Wraithblades
Shining Spear
Vibro Cannons
Fire Prisms
Night Spinners
Wraith Lord
Avatar
Fuegan doesn't really bring anything to the table, you'd get far better firepower just taking another unit of fire dragons.
Storm guardians are terribad. 15 points for a S3 power sword, on a guy with 1 base attack?
Wraithblades, 30 points for an expensive melee unit, and only 1 attack.
Shining Spears; 3+ cover without jinking if you didn't sit still; which is awesome; but you've got stupidly short sub par shooting, so who cares if you have to jink or not. Outside of being hard to kill, they don't do much.
Vibro cannon, worst unit in the book. S7 AP4, or S8AP3 or S9 AP2; if you hit with all the shots. On average, it's a krak missile, at 30 points a shot. Really over-priced for what you're getting.
Fire Prisms and Night Spinners are the red-headed step children. Both are better covered by fire dragons and bikes.
Wraith Lord; over-priced. At 120, he should come with a pair of shuriken cannons, and upgrade those at a discount.
Avatar: Footdar isn't still a thing is it? If I wanted to walk across the table a whack somebody, I'd do it with Wraithknights.
Fuegan:
The only thing I remember was last edition a friend was brainstorming a dual deathstar list -- Fuegan tanking for a DE Grotstar, while a Seer Council spams Renewer to abuse his wound stat growth mechanic. With the Council losing powers, it's a lot harder to pull this off, and the edition isn't as good to deathstars anyways. Other than that I don't really have anything in a regular game. In smaller games he's a reasonable all-round threat.
Storm Guardians:
It's telling that the Storm Guardian Warhost gives them all their upgrades for free -- even GW knows they're not very good. You basically need to use them in that formation, and probably have a large CC component in addition to them. You have an entire host moving forwards 12" every turn, and you get a bunch of melta shots from them, so it's not that terrible. Maybe use them with Wraithblades lol!
Wraithblades:
As before, they're probably best in the Formation, because they gain the 12" move + run. They do have Rage, so if they get the charge, you have 3 attacks with the axes base. You also get saturation in the formation, which allows enough of them to get into combat to be useful. I've also seen a number of players use large Wraithblade units as a deathstar with Eldrad.
Shining Spears:
They do have auto-cover without jinking now, and their spears are always AP3/2. Other than that, they still fill a flanking CC role, good at harassing backliners. You of course need to combine their shots and their charge to do significant damage.
Vibro Cannon:
It's pretty bad, when you could be taking D-weapons, or even Shadow-weavers.
Grav-Tanks:
The power of multiple large blasts from new squadrons is pretty nice -- especially with the Barrage from Nightspinners. The Nightspinners are better in the squadrons, because they don't lose any shots from linking their fire together, and with 3 in a squad, you get S9 3 Shot multiple Barrage, so that's effective against most vehicles as well as basically everything else.
Wraithlord:
Yeah I don't really have anything for this. Sucks since I have a WL and not a Wraithknight, but then again, WK aren't going to work in many friendly games, so I'm not so sad. Ideally he should be a lot closer in price to a Talos.
Avatar:
You take this guy with the Storm Guardian Warhost + Banshees/Scorpions + Wraithblades. Everyone rushes forwards 12" every turn, with potential T2 charges. It's a Threat Overload List, and the Avatar gives you Furious Charge and Rage now. If they shoot at the Avatar, so be it, the whole point of Max Threat Overload is that enough will get through.
Basically, Footdar is okay if you really commit to it in a Warhost.
Attach a WWP shadowfield Archon to a min size squad of wraith blades. DS them next to the enemy then go to town next turn. The archon can tank shots with his his 2++ and majority toughness 6.
2 units of 3 Vibro Cannons with a farseer that takes the guide and prescience primaris powers. When guided, 3 vibro cannons has like a 90% chance to be S9 AP2. Further, because they're artillery, all shooting directed at them is against T7 models. if you stick a CC beatstick in the unit as a deterrent to charges, you can basically fire those 6 cannons at S9 AP2 pinning all game long. Last edition, they were the included in the core of almost every Eldar list I ran. That core was:
Farseer w/ Spirit Stone of Anath'Lan
2x 3 Vaul's Wrath Batteries with Vibro Cannons
An Aegis Defense line w/ Quad gun.
I stick the farseer in the middle of one of the artillery units, in base contact with the quad gun so that he fires the quad at BS5 twin linked. He puts guide/prescience on both units of vibro-cannons, and uses whatever the 3rd power he rolled is. You basically get 3 rolls on the charts, so it's normally something good. I've had fortune a lot. So this battery costs you 395 points, but puts out 6 48" S9 AP2 Twin-linked Pinning shots a round at 2 different targets. In addition, if their target is a skimmer and the quad didn't fire intercept shots that round, that's an additional 4 S7 shots that are twin-linked and hitting on 2+ against air or skimmers, 6+ twin-linked at 48" against everything else.
When you put these 2 batteries behind the aegis, they become pretty difficult to shoot off a point. T7 with 4+ Cover, 3+ armor saves and 9 wounds per unit. I'll normally arrange them in such a manner that I lose a couple guardians before I lose a gun, but not enough guardians to trigger a morale check. Normally once people realize how difficult shooting these things is, they focus on something else, or they try to engage them in melee. That's where my CC backup comes in. I'll normally hold a unit of something back to countercharge anything that tries to lock up my batteries. Barring that, I'll put a CC character of some sort in the unit to discourage the enemy from charging them, and countercharge/challenge if necessary. I've used an allied Lelith Hesperax before, among others. You can also attach a warlock to each of them to give them conceal, for a 2+ cover save behind the aegis.
EDIT: Archons used to work well for the beatstick, and now they're meh. They can still tank with a shadowfield though. T7 with a 2++ shadowfield out front to tank hits. Asurman would probably be a good deterrent, if a bit expensive.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2015/05/11 03:27:46
There is NO SUCH THING as MORE ADVANCED in 40k!!! There are ONLY 2 LEVELS of RULES: Basic and Advanced. THE END. Stop saying "More Advanced". That is not a recognized thing in modern 40k!!!! 2500
3400
2250
3500
3300
Storm Guardians:
It's telling that the Storm Guardian Warhost gives them all their upgrades for free -- even GW knows they're not very good. You basically need to use them in that formation, and probably have a large CC component in addition to them. You have an entire host moving forwards 12" every turn, and you get a bunch of melta shots from them, so it's not that terrible. Maybe use them with Wraithblades lol!
Wraithblades:
As before, they're probably best in the Formation, because they gain the 12" move + run. They do have Rage, so if they get the charge, you have 3 attacks with the axes base. You also get saturation in the formation, which allows enough of them to get into combat to be useful. I've also seen a number of players use large Wraithblade units as a deathstar with Eldrad.
Avatar:
You take this guy with the Storm Guardian Warhost + Banshees/Scorpions + Wraithblades. Everyone rushes forwards 12" every turn, with potential T2 charges. It's a Threat Overload List, and the Avatar gives you Furious Charge and Rage now. If they shoot at the Avatar, so be it, the whole point of Max Threat Overload is that enough will get through.
Basically, Footdar is okay if you really commit to it in a Warhost.
For wraithblades to get the 6" run, you need both a Guardian host and the wraith host. It's possible, but it leaves you with very few options.
Farseer, 3x8 storm guardians with free upgrades, 1 vyper, 1 warwalker, 1 shadow reaver, spirit seer, 3 wraithblades, 1 wraith lord, 1 wraith knight.
That's 1381.
Add avatar and you only have ~90 points to spend on each of the 3 aspect squads, which means banshees (scorpions are too expensive).
That's just enough points for 3x5 banshees w/exarch(required) and Executioner.
What if...
Avatars aren't labeled as Unique.
You could run a Guardian Host (skip the wraiths), and load up on Avatars. 1 Avatar might not be that great, but 3 to 5 avatars? Now we're cooking.
Farseer
2x 3 Vaul's Wrath Batteries with Vibro Cannons
An Aegis Defense line w/ Quad gun.
When you put these 2 batteries behind the aegis, they become pretty difficult to shoot off a point. T7 with 4+ Cover, 3+ armor saves and 9 wounds per unit.
Now it's 380 points.
At best, you're getting 6 lascannons hits, if you get off the psychic powers or are lucky on the hit rolls.
That just seems very expensive for the firepower. Compared to other eldar heavy options, they are terrible. Compared to other armies heavy options, they are still bad.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/05/11 04:32:03
Now it's 380 points.
At best, you're getting 6 lascannons hits, if you get off the psychic powers or are lucky on the hit rolls.
That just seems very expensive for the firepower. Compared to other eldar heavy options, they are terrible. Compared to other armies heavy options, they are still bad.
You talk as if getting the psychic powers off is difficult. In my experience, getting guide and prescience off with the spirit stone of anath'lan is all but guaranteed in the lists I run. It's actually pretty difficult to deny the witch on blessings, so most opponents don't waste their dice on it, especially when I typically have other psykers they're more worried about. Which means, you're basically getting 6 twin-linked lascannon hits every round, likely for the entirety of the game, and don't forget about the quad gun manned by the farseer. Against any army that uses flyers or skimmers, that makes a decent impact as well, and is part of that cost you listed above. It's also a firepower sponge. People often don't consider how well-entrenched such a unit is, and waste a fair amount of inneffective fire against it before losing interest and switching targets. This serves you greatly, as they take fire away from other units early in the game, but generally don't inspire people to dump everything they have into them in order to actually kill them. I've never had an opponent successfully kill all of those models. They're just really good at holding a position and getting their shots off every round. I like shadow weavers too, but they don't have the anti-vehicle potential of the vibro cannons. The D-cannons suffer from the same disadvantages they had last edition: Short range, and Tall Expense. Sure, you can come up with some points-intensive ways to get them quickly to the middle of the table for a "no-fly zone", but they aren't very versatile. Once they're in place, that's it. The short range limits their utility. Both other options are 25 PPM cheaper, with double the range, which makes them threaten the entire table.
There is NO SUCH THING as MORE ADVANCED in 40k!!! There are ONLY 2 LEVELS of RULES: Basic and Advanced. THE END. Stop saying "More Advanced". That is not a recognized thing in modern 40k!!!! 2500
3400
2250
3500
3300
Vibro Cannons are not a great unit. I would place this type of unit in an MSU build. A lot depends on the rest of my army, but getting 2-3 hits from the unit at good range is not too bad for 90 points.
Nightspinners. I really enjoyed running one in the previous codex, mainly because it was decent at killing Broadsides (their low INIT meant STR8 with barrage was nice). Now, I'm not sure. Running two at 200 points has merit, but that is a pretty significant footprint for them. Kind of on the fence.
Wraithlord. Again, not too sure. I'm running a full Eldar Warhost (Windriders + Wraiths as the bulk), so I have to take one. He does get the full 6" Battlefocus move. My initial thoughts is to have him with 2 Flamers and maybe the sword as an upgrade. With the Wraithhost, a lot of it has to do with getting to an objective and forcing my opponent to close with me.
Avatar. For the points, I'm taking Eldrad over him in my list. He's not terrible, but you really have to build an army around him to take advantage of his area effect buffs.
Storm Guardians. Geez, I have not played a unit of them since 4th edition, and they weren't that good back then. Run them as cheap objective grabbers. Who'd want to shoot at them when you have scatterlaser bikes all over the place?
Wraithblades. Give them Ghost Axe and Shield for no extra points. In a full Warhost, they get the 6" Battlefocus. Get Baharroth in there and be able to cast Invisibility through Farseers. Get them into the center of the board and create area denial. D-Scythe Wraithguard to this much better, but if you really want to use Wraithblades.
No earth shattering, thought provoking quote. I'm just someone who was introduced to 40K in the late 80's and it's become a lifelong hobby.
You talk as if getting the psychic powers off is difficult. In my experience, getting guide and prescience off with the spirit stone of anath'lan is all but guaranteed in the lists I run. It's actually pretty difficult to deny the witch on blessings, so most opponents don't waste their dice on it, especially when I typically have other psykers they're more worried about. Which means, you're basically getting 6 twin-linked lascannon hits every round, likely for the entirety of the game
Spirit stones makes Prescience 1 easier, and does nothing for guide.
1 die fails half the time.
2 dice fails 25% of the time.
3 dice fails 12.5% of the time.
In 3 turns, lets say you roll 3 dice on each power. Each attempt is a 87.5% pass rate. 3 turns is 6 attempts. You only have a 44.8% chance at passing all those tests, and that's assuming you always have at least 6 dice to start with.
Then, even if you assume that you managed to beat the odds and get the re-rolls, you're hitting on a 3+, with re-roll. With re-rolls, a single unit has a 70% chance to hit with all 3 shots. You only have a 12% chance to hit with all the shots for the first 3 turns, even with re-rolls.
If you factor in needing enough warp dice (farseer +D6 isn't always enough, if you've got another source of dice, this isn't ~380 points anymore)
Factor in failing to get off the re-roll powers even when you have enough dice (12.5% chance of failure if you 3 dice)
Factor in the chance of missing even if you do get off the power (11.11% miss chance).
If you are rolling 6 dice at the power, you opponent might roll his deny dice if you only have a single success. (3 dice is a 42% chance at stopping the power)
If you take all that into consideration...
You're producing firepower about the same as a pair of Las predators, with las sponsons.
It's a lot more durable, but at the end of the day, it's a lot less consistent that 6 hits per turn.
Or in another perspective, you could just buy Dark Reapers and a bunker instead.
For the cost of the spirit stone farseer, 6x vibro cannons and ADL, you get 2x4 reapers (2 are exarchs), all with star shot missiles, inside of 2 bunkers.
It's 10 shots a turn, with the option for +1 BS, and of course, the free re-rolls to hit vs anything with special I go fast rules, and ignoring jink. The 2nd mode of fire helps out with you aren't stripping hull points.
You talk as if getting the psychic powers off is difficult. In my experience, getting guide and prescience off with the spirit stone of anath'lan is all but guaranteed in the lists I run. It's actually pretty difficult to deny the witch on blessings, so most opponents don't waste their dice on it, especially when I typically have other psykers they're more worried about. Which means, you're basically getting 6 twin-linked lascannon hits every round, likely for the entirety of the game
Spirit stones makes Prescience 1 easier, and does nothing for guide.
1 die fails half the time.
2 dice fails 25% of the time.
3 dice fails 12.5% of the time.
In 3 turns, lets say you roll 3 dice on each power. Each attempt is a 87.5% pass rate. 3 turns is 6 attempts. You only have a 44.8% chance at passing all those tests, and that's assuming you always have at least 6 dice to start with.
Then, even if you assume that you managed to beat the odds and get the re-rolls, you're hitting on a 3+, with re-roll. With re-rolls, a single unit has a 70% chance to hit with all 3 shots. You only have a 12% chance to hit with all the shots for the first 3 turns, even with re-rolls.
If you factor in needing enough warp dice (farseer +D6 isn't always enough, if you've got another source of dice, this isn't ~380 points anymore)
Factor in failing to get off the re-roll powers even when you have enough dice (12.5% chance of failure if you 3 dice)
Factor in the chance of missing even if you do get off the power (11.11% miss chance).
If you are rolling 6 dice at the power, you opponent might roll his deny dice if you only have a single success. (3 dice is a 42% chance at stopping the power)
If you take all that into consideration...
You're producing firepower about the same as a pair of Las predators, with las sponsons.
It's a lot more durable, but at the end of the day, it's a lot less consistent that 6 hits per turn.
Or in another perspective, you could just buy Dark Reapers and a bunker instead.
For the cost of the spirit stone farseer, 6x vibro cannons and ADL, you get 2x4 reapers (2 are exarchs), all with star shot missiles, inside of 2 bunkers.
It's 10 shots a turn, with the option for +1 BS, and of course, the free re-rolls to hit vs anything with special I go fast rules, and ignoring jink. The 2nd mode of fire helps out with you aren't stripping hull points.
If you are going to Mathhammer at least get the math right.
You need to remember that each farseer gets to reroll the dice for 1 spell per turn. This essentially gives the farseer 6 dice for 1 spell which means he has a 1.6% chance of failing that spell.
98.4% x 87.5% = 86.1% chance of getting both spells per turn.
86.1% ^3 = 63.8% chance for casting both of the spells all 3 turns.
3 Dice from the farseer + an average of 3.5 on a d6 is 6.5 spell dice, and he has said he also has other psykers generating spell dice too. On average he will have enough dice.
88.8% (chance of a guy hitting) ^3 (3 guys per squad) is a 70.0% chance of 3 S9 shots per turn per squad as you said.
For the sake of simplicity lets split the chance of failing at least 1 spell in 1 turn in half. (100%-86.1%)/2 = 7.0%.
93% x 70% = 65.1% total chance per turn per squad of 3 S9 hits.
For your predators you say it is 6 hits per turn but its 6 shots, 2 with rerolls if I remember correctly (I haven't played against a predator in ages).
For 1 predator:
Main gun 33.3% ^2 = 11.1% chance to miss gives is 88.8% chance to hit.
The 2 other guns each have a 66% chance to hit.
88.8% x 66.6% ^2 = 39.4% chance of 3 S9 shots from each predator per turn.
Even with the chance of a lower strength with some missing I would still pick the vibro cannons over the predators with those odds.
You're also still on the more durable platform with the vibro cannons, and you have a farseer with a quad gun firing too.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/05/11 11:53:42
93% x 70% = 65.1% total chance per turn per squad of 3 S9 hits.
Thanks for taking the burden of that math hammer! Beat me to it. The above part might be a bit confusing for some people at first, but if you realise that any time 1 spell fails to manifest(14% chance per turn), it basically cuts the chance of getting 3 S9 hits in half, but doesn't eliminate it, then it makes sense.
There is NO SUCH THING as MORE ADVANCED in 40k!!! There are ONLY 2 LEVELS of RULES: Basic and Advanced. THE END. Stop saying "More Advanced". That is not a recognized thing in modern 40k!!!! 2500
3400
2250
3500
3300
If you are going to Mathhammer at least get the math right.
You need to remember that each farseer gets to reroll the dice for 1 spell per turn. This essentially gives the farseer 6 dice for 1 spell which means he has a 1.6% chance of failing that spell.
98.4% x 87.5% = 86.1% chance of getting both spells per turn.
86.1% ^3 = 63.8% chance for casting both of the spells all 3 turns.
3 Dice from the farseer + an average of 3.5 on a d6 is 6.5 spell dice, and he has said he also has other psykers generating spell dice too. On average he will have enough dice.
88.8% (chance of a guy hitting) ^3 (3 guys per squad) is a 70.0% chance of 3 S9 shots per turn per squad as you said.
For the sake of simplicity lets split the chance of failing at least 1 spell in 1 turn in half. (100%-86.1%)/2 = 7.0%.
93% x 70% = 65.1% total chance per turn per squad of 3 S9 hits.
For your predators you say it is 6 hits per turn but its 6 shots, 2 with rerolls if I remember correctly (I haven't played against a predator in ages).
For 1 predator:
Main gun 33.3% ^2 = 11.1% chance to miss gives is 88.8% chance to hit.
The 2 other guns each have a 66% chance to hit.
88.8% x 66.6% ^2 = 39.4% chance of 3 S9 shots from each predator per turn.
Even with the chance of a lower strength with some missing I would still pick the vibro cannons over the predators with those odds.
You're also still on the more durable platform with the vibro cannons, and you have a farseer with a quad gun firing too.
Sorry, I truncated the math that I posted, because of how it plays out on the table. First of all, if you're adding more warp charges, those costs have to be accounted for. I accounted for warp charge re-roll, but also accounted for the D6 dice every opponent has being able to deny the witch. I had the farseer using D6+3 dice. You could easily add another 70 points to the vibro team by adding a pair of warlocks, and that would give you the power needed every turn, but I ignored the chance of not having enough dice.
The assumption was, if the first power went off, the farseer wouldn't use his re-roll. If the power only went off with a single success, opponent would attempt to deny the witch with all of his dice (1D6, generously assuming he didn't have a psyker of his own). If the farseer passed with 2 or more successes, opponent would hold is dice for the next power. On the 2nd power, if the farseer hadn't use his re-roll yet, he'd re-roll all failed dice. Opponent attempts to deny the 2nd power if he hasn't used his dice yet. Neither player has the advantage of knowing the the 2nd power attempt would roll until the committed to using or saving the re-roll/deny on the first attempt.
All of this was put into a dice roller (excel), and the psychic phase was rolled out, followed by shooting with any re-rolls gained from the psychic phase. I ran 50 replicates to see how it would all shake out.
With that, I also ran 50 shooting phases for 2 predators, and 50 shooting phases for 6 dark reapers, + 2 reaper exarchs (in bunkers) (though if you add in 2 more warp charges, you should add another 2 reapers).
Here's the break down for a 6 turn game.
Predators scored 29 S9 AP2 hits, out of 36 possible. Vibro cannons scored 24 S9 hits and 8 S8 hits.
Ran it again,
23 predator hits, 18 S9 vibro hits, 6 S8 vibro hits, 2 S7 vibro hits.
Dark Reapers scored 50 S8 hits in the first run, and 55 in the 2nd run.
Again and again, vibro comes up about on par with a pair predators; though to be even on points, predators should have a 3rd tank.
Vibrocannons can pin, but that's very target dependent.
Dark Reapers massively outperform the V-Cannons, against all armor values, and nearly all armor saves (except 2+ in the open), but even against the 2+ opponent in the open, they can simply fire 22 S5 shots instead and flak their way through the armor.
What I like about the artillery is the durability, but that's about it. I'm really not excited about having a round of shooting at S8 and S7 instead of 9. It's a great place to bunker a farseer; but so is a unit of shadow reavers. Shadow reavers even more so, because they don't need to be in line of sight.
All of this was put into a dice roller (excel), and the psychic phase was rolled out, followed by shooting with any re-rolls gained from the psychic phase. I ran 50 replicates to see how it would all shake out.
With that, I also ran 50 shooting phases for 2 predators, and 50 shooting phases for 6 dark reapers, + 2 reaper exarchs (in bunkers) (though if you add in 2 more warp charges, you should add another 2 reapers).
Here's the break down for a 6 turn game.
Predators scored 29 S9 AP2 hits, out of 36 possible. Vibro cannons scored 24 S9 hits and 8 S8 hits.
Ran it again,
23 predator hits, 18 S9 vibro hits, 6 S8 vibro hits, 2 S7 vibro hits.
Dark Reapers scored 50 S8 hits in the first run, and 55 in the 2nd run.
Again and again, vibro comes up about on par with a pair predators; though to be even on points, predators should have a 3rd tank.
Vibrocannons can pin, but that's very target dependent.
Dark Reapers massively outperform the V-Cannons, against all armor values, and nearly all armor saves (except 2+ in the open), but even against the 2+ opponent in the open, they can simply fire 22 S5 shots instead and flak their way through the armor.
What I like about the artillery is the durability, but that's about it. I'm really not excited about having a round of shooting at S8 and S7 instead of 9. It's a great place to bunker a farseer; but so is a unit of shadow reavers. Shadow reavers even more so, because they don't need to be in line of sight.
That math doesn't work, Matt. If you're using some sort of random number generator/algorithm, you'd have to run it far too many times than is practical to get a legitimate statistic. You have to use math to calculate the odds. Here they are, assuming the following:
You have 6 warp charge dice. Your opponent has only the 3 from the D6, as per your example.
You roll 3 dice towards each power.
You have a 37.5% chance to roll 1 success, and a 50% chance to roll 2-3 successes. With this being the case, in a vacuum where your opponent has 3 psychic dice and he's holding his breath hoping for you to get only 1 success so he can try to deny you, it's actually best to use your reroll on the first roll if you score 1 or less successes. So 50% of the time, you'd just reroll any dice that aren't successes, giving you only a 1.5% chance of spell failure on your first casting, with only a 5% chance of getting only 1 success. This makes it a 93.5% chance of getting 2 or more successes on the first psychic roll. With less than 7% chance to deny you if he rolled all his dice, most players would then hold their dice to the second casting, so we will not include them trying to deny here. 1 Successful cast.
On the second casting, you have a 50% chance of still having your reroll because you already had 2 or more successes on your original dice roll. This will be represented by assuming only a 7% chance of denial on this second roll every other round. On a round when you don't have your reroll, your opponent has a 35% chance of denying 37.5% of the time(1 success), a 7% chance of denying 50% of the time(2 successes), a 1% chance of denying 12.5% of the time(3 successes), and a 100% chance 12.5% of the time(0 successes). This equals out to a 17% chance your opponent denies, and a 12.5% chance that you fail your roll to begin with. So, 50% of the time you'll have a 29.5% chance of failing your second roll. The other 50%, you'll have a 7% chance of denial, and a 1.5% chance of failure. Taking this on averages means that you will succeed and not be denied your second roll 81% of the time.
This equals out to a 75% chance of getting both spells every turn, even when calculating in the chance for your opponent to deny. If you don't get both, you almost certainly got 1. So, again using averages, on any given turn, a unit of vibro cannons would have a 87% chance of being under the effects of twin-linked (99% +75% / 2).
Any time all 3 batteries fire(After Rerolls):
You have a 3% chance of 3 misses. (Converts to 1% chance for 3 successes)
You have a 22% chance of 2 misses. (Converts to 10% chance for 3 successes)
You have a 44.5% chance of 1 miss. (Converts to 29.5% chance for 3 successes)
You have a 29.5% chance of 0 misses.
So 29.5+29.5+10+1= 70% chance of scoring 3 hits with a unit that has twin-linked.
70% chance that a unit hits all 3 if twin linked * 87% chance of being twin-linked = 61% chance of being twin-linked and hitting all 3 shots.
29.5% chance that a unit hits all 3 if not twin linked * 13% chance of not being twin-linked = 4% chance of not being twin-linked and hitting all 3 shots.
61% + 4% = TOTAL: 65% chance per unit, per round, of HITTING(guaranteed) with 3 S9 AP2 pinning shots.
That also leaves room for the S8 AP3 shots that will inevitably happen on occasion, making up the bulk of the other %. So if we say they score 3 hits 65% of the time, and 2 hits the other 35% of the time(as fewer hits are a statistical anomally not really worth including here), then let's look at how they perform against predators over 5 rounds:
Units of 3 vibro cannons will be firing a total of 10 times(That means 6.5 times, we'll be firing 3 S9 AP2 pinning shots, and 3.5 times we'll be firing 2 S8 AP3 pinning rounds - For simplicity, and to give your argument the benefit of the doubt, we'll call it 6 times and 4 times.)
The quad gun will snap fire, as if the opponent had zero skimmers or fliers, with twin-linked 20 times.(Would be BS5 against skimmers or fliers)
So, Vibro cannons perform thusly(30 shots + 20 Quad Gun Shots):
18 S9 AP2 pinning hits.
8 S8 AP3 pinning hits.
7 S7 AP4 quad gun hits(This could go MUCH higher if your opponent has skimmers or flyers)
33 Total Hits.
While Predators perform thusly(30 shots):
Tri-Las Predators have a 99% chance of scoring between 14 and 28 S9 AP2 hits over 30 shots, with an average of 21.
21 Total Hits.
So, for equivalent points, the vibro cannon unit is significantly more durable, put's out more just a tad fewer S9 hits, but significantly more hits overall when you include the S7 and S8. They're more versatile, being better vs. a wider range of targets(pinning for infantry, and interceptor/skyfire on the quad gun against air and skimmers). They're pinning in case you run out of hard targets, and we haven't even calculated in the value of the BS5 twin-linked quad gun that can fire interceptor at different flyer/skimmer targets in the same round as the cannons fire at something else, which is part of the cost of the "equivalently" priced unit.
If firing ONLY at what lascannons are best at killing, the predators STILL aren't as good simply due to the significantly fewer number of overall hits, but against AV14 is the only place where an argument in favor of the predators vs. this unit really holds any substance at all. Against AV13 and lower, this unit is clearly better, and if your opponent has flyers, skimmers, or lots of infantry, it becomes leaps and bounds better.
EDIT: All that having been said, I normally run an army with significantly more warp charge in it doing other things, and I always cast guide and prescience on these 2 units first, using only 2-3 dice per case, rerolling as necessary. Since I normally also have a psychic deathstar or some other unit with psychic powers that players typically view as more critical(ie, invisibility), they very rarely ever consider using deny dice on my guided vibro cannons until it is far too late in the game, and they've more than earned their points back.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/05/12 03:33:50
There is NO SUCH THING as MORE ADVANCED in 40k!!! There are ONLY 2 LEVELS of RULES: Basic and Advanced. THE END. Stop saying "More Advanced". That is not a recognized thing in modern 40k!!!! 2500
3400
2250
3500
3300
"Okay guys, here's the plan. We have no particular combat skills and there aren't very many of us. When I think about it we're wet tissue paper compared to basically everything we're gonna be fighting. Although we have access to some pretty decent ranged weapons now that I think about it. CHAAAAAAAARGE!!!"
- Anonymous Dead Eldar Guardian
Storm guardians are best employed as shelf guard units, making room for the good things. Actually, you could make all the other things on your list useful by taking them instead of storm guardians.
Mustela wrote: "Okay guys, here's the plan. We have no particular combat skills and there aren't very many of us. When I think about it we're wet tissue paper compared to basically everything we're gonna be fighting. Although we have access to some pretty decent ranged weapons now that I think about it. CHAAAAAAAARGE!!!"
- Anonymous Dead Eldar Guardian
Storm guardians are best employed as shelf guard units, making room for the good things. Actually, you could make all the other things on your list useful by taking them instead of storm guardians.
"Okay guys, here's the plan. We have the same combat skill as a space marine and we outnumber them 2:1. When I think about it we're wet tissue paper compared to basically everything we're gonna be fighting but since they won't be alive to attack us anyway who cares. Although we have access to some pretty decent ranged weapons, the smell of molten slag is best from up close, and that Avatar is filling me with bloodlust. CHAAAAAAAARGE!!!"
-Anonymous Eldar Guardian that killed Kharn.
Point for point you get 16 guardians with 2 power swords and 2 meltas or 10 grey hunters with a powersword and 2 meltas. Though in this match up I would just shoot the guardians with bolters as they ignore their armor, but assuming cover and good saves/bad wounding and the 16 guardians charged the grey hunters the guardians would win (if they pass a LD 6 test after the first round). Backed up with an Avatar for fearless, rage, and FC or to kill extra guys in the same combat or tie up another nearby unit and it the guardians are even better. Then take the formation for their free power weapons and free meltas and they are cheaper than said grey hunter squad at 20 strong.
That math doesn't work, Matt. If you're using some sort of random number generator/algorithm, you'd have to run it far too many times than is practical to get a legitimate statistic. You have to use math to calculate the odds. Here they are, assuming the following:
You have 6 warp charge dice. Your opponent has only the 3 from the D6, as per your example.
In the excel spread, the opponent randomly generates D6 dice, just like he would in a game. If I am going up against an invisible death star, I'm not going to be throwing my D6 dice vs ~3 successes, I'd rather use them against 1 or 2 successes. Chances of stopping invisibility is pretty slim without having a good number of dice of my own.
As for the random number generator, it's excel. =RANDBETWEEN(1,6)
It generates a random number between 1 and 6, effectively flawlessly.
Then it's not all that hard to do the rest with pretty simple IF and FIND functions. Once you map out the generations of power dice, rolling the dice, condition for re-roll, deny the witch, Vibro firing with conditional re-rolls, and finally tabulating hits, you've got ~1/2 a page. Copy, paste. Copy, paste. Copy paste. Do that, 10 times, and you've got 1024 shooting phases.
The problem with the vibro cannons is that the bell curve is HUGE. You have a variable, which influences a variable, which can be countered by another variable, which then lets you fire. Individual shots are further scatters across a bell curve with each individual shot influencing the total outcome (strength and AP of the hits).
The high water mark for a game worth of shooting was 33 S9 hits and 2 S8 hits. Low water mark was 9 S9 12 S8, 3 S7.
Where I did make a mistake on this was the point value of the predators.
6 vibro, + farseer, +ADL +Quad is 395. If you want to have enough warp dice, you really need to add at least 1 warlock. Which brings it up to 430.
At 430, it's 3 predators, full lascannons, and a spare HK missile. Bump the predator damage output by 50%, and vibrocannons are making predators look good.
The real question is, why are you running guide/prescience at all? Instead of 6 guided shots, you could run 12 to 15 unguided shots. In a double CAD, it's very easy to do, and I'd bet it would provide far greater fire power.
Mustela wrote: "Okay guys, here's the plan. We have no particular combat skills and there aren't very many of us. When I think about it we're wet tissue paper compared to basically everything we're gonna be fighting. Although we have access to some pretty decent ranged weapons now that I think about it. CHAAAAAAAARGE!!!"
- Anonymous Dead Eldar Guardian
Storm guardians are best employed as shelf guard units, making room for the good things. Actually, you could make all the other things on your list useful by taking them instead of storm guardians.
"Okay guys, here's the plan. We have the same combat skill as a space marine and we outnumber them 2:1. When I think about it we're wet tissue paper compared to basically everything we're gonna be fighting but since they won't be alive to attack us anyway who cares. Although we have access to some pretty decent ranged weapons, the smell of molten slag is best from up close, and that Avatar is filling me with bloodlust. CHAAAAAAAARGE!!!"
-Anonymous Eldar Guardian that killed Kharn.
Point for point you get 16 guardians with 2 power swords and 2 meltas or 10 grey hunters with a powersword and 2 meltas. Though in this match up I would just shoot the guardians with bolters as they ignore their armor, but assuming cover and good saves/bad wounding and the 16 guardians charged the grey hunters the guardians would win (if they pass a LD 6 test after the first round). Backed up with an Avatar for fearless, rage, and FC or to kill extra guys in the same combat or tie up another nearby unit and it the guardians are even better. Then take the formation for their free power weapons and free meltas and they are cheaper than said grey hunter squad at 20 strong.
Of course assuming you get the charge. And they don't shoot at you while you walk across the table. And no one dies to overwatch. And of course not accounting for the points cost of all those force multipliers. And you get cover all the time. And that you will get lucky and pass that LD 6 test. And Grey Hunters were actually a CC unit. And 10*2 equals 16. I think you just proved my point.
Mustela wrote: "Okay guys, here's the plan. We have no particular combat skills and there aren't very many of us. When I think about it we're wet tissue paper compared to basically everything we're gonna be fighting. Although we have access to some pretty decent ranged weapons now that I think about it. CHAAAAAAAARGE!!!"
- Anonymous Dead Eldar Guardian
Storm guardians are best employed as shelf guard units, making room for the good things. Actually, you could make all the other things on your list useful by taking them instead of storm guardians.
"Okay guys, here's the plan. We have the same combat skill as a space marine and we outnumber them 2:1. When I think about it we're wet tissue paper compared to basically everything we're gonna be fighting but since they won't be alive to attack us anyway who cares. Although we have access to some pretty decent ranged weapons, the smell of molten slag is best from up close, and that Avatar is filling me with bloodlust. CHAAAAAAAARGE!!!"
-Anonymous Eldar Guardian that killed Kharn.
Point for point you get 16 guardians with 2 power swords and 2 meltas or 10 grey hunters with a powersword and 2 meltas. Though in this match up I would just shoot the guardians with bolters as they ignore their armor, but assuming cover and good saves/bad wounding and the 16 guardians charged the grey hunters the guardians would win (if they pass a LD 6 test after the first round). Backed up with an Avatar for fearless, rage, and FC or to kill extra guys in the same combat or tie up another nearby unit and it the guardians are even better. Then take the formation for their free power weapons and free meltas and they are cheaper than said grey hunter squad at 20 strong.
Wow way not to actually think about what I posted, because I did mention most of the things you said.
Of course assuming you get the charge.
I'll admit that if the Grey hunters charge the situation changes but that is a mute point as that is almost the same in any situation.
And they don't shoot at you while you walk across the table.
I did mention that in said sidation I would just shoot them and then said good saves/bad wounding
And no one dies to overwatch.
Hitting on 6's wounding on 3's no saves with 20 shots equals 2 dead from overwatch but I'm being a little hypocritical here because while math hammer is the only way to describe on paper how well a unit works I hate using math hammer because getting 20 6's on overwatch is just as statistical as getting zero 6's in the long run.
And of course not accounting for the points cost of all those force multipliers.
What force multipliers? The calculations I ran were with out the Avatar. Then I said with the Avatar to either kill more faster or a different squad. Add a HQ to the squad and I'm pretty sure the Avatar will beat him in CC and in best case the Avatar charges with the guardians.
And you get cover all the time.
With the way a board should be set up, it shouldn't be hard.
And that you will get lucky and pass that LD 6 test.
Yes with the math hammer I ran guardians lose the first round but LD 6 isn't impossible and if we are using luck to factor things, maybe I won't have to make a test.
And Grey Hunters were actually a CC unit.
I picked Grey hunters because 1) I play SW so I am familiar with them, and 2) because they have the stats of space marines which is what half of what the guardians will be fighting and have counter attack. Not much better they can do outside of BA with their FC.
And 10*2 equals 16.
Fine the guardians fire their meltas and pistols and kill 2 models now 8*2=16. Like I said the points being about equal was the only reason I used 16, and unless someone runs out of points I don't know why the would stop at 16 models for the squad.
Karandras still has Infiltrate, stealth and shrouded and a 2+ armor right? add to a unit of Wraithblades. Plonk them somewhere scary and laugh as your opponent dedicates simply ridiculous amount of fire in an attempt to remove them. No Invlun so cover ignoring large blast high strength ap2 might remove them. *cough* Riptides *cough* but assuming your opponent is playing a regular 7th ed codex: you can fire and forget this cruise missile and watch it easily drag down anything given enough time.
Proud supporter of
It is human nature to seek culpability in a time of tragedy. It is a sign of strength to cry out against fate, rather than to bow one's head and succumb.
-Gabriel Angelos
Hitting on 6's wounding on 3's no saves with 20 shots equals 2 dead from overwatch but I'm being a little hypocritical here because while math hammer is the only way to describe on paper how well a unit works I hate using math hammer because getting 20 6's on overwatch is just as statistical as getting zero 6's in the long run.
This is calculably false.
They are my bulwark against the Terror. They are the Defenders of Humanity. They are my Space Marines, and they shall know no fear.
yeah, I'm not seeing the Fire Prism as a bad thing...it has range and great versatility. Fire Dragons in a serpent is great, but if that bird gets knocked out...they are toast.
The wraithblades with axes are decent when combined with a wraithlord marching behind. The blades have decent T and a 4+ invuln, while the Lord behind gains the 5+ cover save for shooting through the blades. The blades are always running, no reason not to since they aren't shooting. Don't need to be in the formation for that. If taken as a wraith host formation, the Lord will gain battle focus too so running and firing with whatever weapon loadouts he wants. Put the other two wraith units in serpents (1 scythe, 1 cannon). Spirit Seer with telepathy (hoping for Invisibility) walks behind blades. It's not that many points so can easily add another detachment to complement it.
seer 70
5 wraithguard, serpent, tl scatter, shuricannon 285
5 wraithscythes, serpent, tl shuricannon, shuricannon 330
5 wraithblades w axes 150
wraithlord, 2 brightlances, 2 flamers, sword 165
wraithknight, 2 D Cannons, scatterlaser 310 (still not sure where the crowd lays on firing all weapons or just 2...if latter, drop the scatter and add points elsewhere)
1310pts.
easily add a windrider host to ensure all runs are 6"
are the blades better than than the cannons? No, of course not...but it does give the force a decent cc unit and synergizes with the wraithlord reasonably well. With the speed of the other units, they probably won't get a lot of attention.
My second detachment will probably be harlies as I don't plan to buy into the windrider spam. It's bad enough that I have a wraith host, but at least my knight has the suncannon instead of more ranged D! Not sure, which harlie formation I will take. Probably just the Cast of Players.
Or in another perspective, you could just buy Dark Reapers and a bunker instead.
For the cost of the spirit stone farseer, 6x vibro cannons and ADL, you get 2x4 reapers (2 are exarchs), all with star shot missiles, inside of 2 bunkers.
It's 10 shots a turn, with the option for +1 BS, and of course, the free re-rolls to hit vs anything with special I go fast rules, and ignoring jink. The 2nd mode of fire helps out with you aren't stripping hull points.
I've been thinking about this a bit. If they take the star-shot missiles they then loose the 2 shot S5 Ap3 though, correct? Do they gain flakk in that case? I'm curious about whether flakk is better than the multi-shot missile against flyrants. Because in general it seems the S5 AP3 multi-shot is better against most things, like TWC or Bikes or enemy windriders, etc. Im really pleased with how they boosted the dark reapers in this codex, they seem excellent now. Maybe there is hope for all these static heavy weapon squads in other codexes that have been subpar for several editions now.
Abadabadoobaddon wrote:
Phoenix wrote:Well I don't think the battle company would do much to bolster the ranks of my eldar army so no.
Nonsense. The Battle Company box is perfect for filling out your ranks of aspect warriors with a large contingent from the Screaming Baldies shrine.
Wow way not to actually think about what I posted, because I did mention most of the things you said.
Yes you mentioned them. Then proceeded to ignore or dismiss them. Nice mind reading skills by the way.
I'll admit that if the Grey hunters charge the situation changes but that is a mute point as that is almost the same in any situation.
This alone makes the unit bad, and it's one among a slew of problems. The unit will lose in shooting, and need the charge to win combat. You also didn't give the grey hunters the cover that everyone always has. Also 16 won't fit into a transport, so a number that doesn't have to walk will lose even if they charge. If they walk I assure you they will die before they reach anything. If you don't realize that I'm gonna assume you're trolling me. You said they are reliant on a slew of things going your way for them to beat up on what is pretty much a mediocre dedicated shooting unit in this meta. That is literally the definition of an irredeemably terrible unit.
One move vote for the Nightspinner; it's only 100 points. Most opponents deploy/move differently if they face large blasts, this alone could make it useful (if you somehow don't have grenade packs in your list).
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/05/12 22:28:52
HawaiiMatt wrote: If I am going up against an invisible death star, I'm not going to be throwing my D6 dice vs ~3 successes, I'd rather use them against 1 or 2 successes. Chances of stopping invisibility is pretty slim without having a good number of dice of my own.
I don't disagree, but I've already demonstrated how using my rerolls on the first vibro-unit to get less than 2 successes for guide gives me effectively an 87.5% chance to keep both vibro-cannons guided every turn, even WITH your deny chance. That's on an average of 3 warp charge generated per turn. More warp charge would benefit me, not you. Less would lower my original chance of success slightly, but would make your chance of denying so slim that it counterbalances it.
As for the random number generator, it's excel. =RANDBETWEEN(1,6)
It generates a random number between 1 and 6, effectively flawlessly
That doesn't matter. It doesn't give you the odds, it uses them. RNGs defy the odds all the time. To have a scientific outcome on an RNG, you need to run it like a million times.
The problem with the vibro cannons is that the bell curve is HUGE. You have a variable, which influences a variable, which can be countered by another variable, which then lets you fire. Individual shots are further scatters across a bell curve with each individual shot influencing the total outcome (strength and AP of the hits).
The high water mark for a game worth of shooting was 33 S9 hits and 2 S8 hits. Low water mark was 9 S9 12 S8, 3 S7.
Again, the problem here is the random number generator. What you list there doesn't give you the odds and averages. Math does.
Where I did make a mistake on this was the point value of the predators.
6 vibro, + farseer, +ADL +Quad is 395. If you want to have enough warp dice, you really need to add at least 1 warlock. Which brings it up to 430.
At 430, it's 3 predators, full lascannons, and a spare HK missile. Bump the predator damage output by 50%, and vibrocannons are making predators look good.
First, I don't need a warlock to have enough warp charge. The minimum I'd ever have is 4 with just a farseer, and that gives me a 75% chance of success before rerolls. With a reroll, my chance of NOT getting at least 1 success is only 6%. When you apply that as an average over the 2 rolls, I have an 85% chance of succeeding on each cast, and you have only an 8% chance of denying a single casting(Can't deny 2 successes with 1 die, and can't deny a failure). 85% * 77% = 65% chance, AGAIN, every round, for both units to be twin-linked, 35% chance of only 1 being twin-linked. Then, the same statistics I posted earlier hold true. If you increase the warp dice, or decrease the warp dice, the end percentage remains relatively the same. As dice increase beyond 6 total, my odds improve dramatically.
The real question is, why are you running guide/prescience at all? Instead of 6 guided shots, you could run 12 to 15 unguided shots. In a double CAD, it's very easy to do, and I'd bet it would provide far greater fire power.
1. It works. I've never lost a game running that core in my army, and I've played a lot of games using it.. It's a versatile unit that can put the hurt on a lot of different things.
2. Dual CAD isn't allowed in lots of tournaments, and I'm a tournament player.
3. You have to have a warlord anyhow, and I tend to run psyker heavy armies. With a psyker heavy army, I have versatility in my psychic phase. Do I need invisibility and hammerhand on that deathstar this round? How about guide on these vibro cannons? If I have a hard target to crack, sure, I'll probably guide them. If I know I'm going to fire the vibro cannons at a unit of infantry, or I'm firing the quad gun at a flyer, and therefore obligated to follow suit with the vibro cannons in the farseer's squad, I can save my warp points and use them elsewhere in the army.
There is NO SUCH THING as MORE ADVANCED in 40k!!! There are ONLY 2 LEVELS of RULES: Basic and Advanced. THE END. Stop saying "More Advanced". That is not a recognized thing in modern 40k!!!! 2500
3400
2250
3500
3300
Shining Spears are great with Farseer support, throw in Baharroth for Hit & Run. In the Warhost they can be WS 5.
Storm guardians with fee specials? Yes please spam them with 2x fusion guns and 2x power swords allied DE raiders with nightshields. Not the best unit in the codex for sure, but certainly usefull, and better value than many other units in the game. 147 points for each boat is not bad.
Avatar is not terrible, kinda bad, but still okay. Hide him behind a bastion with 60 guardians nearby in cover with warlocks for some 2+ save blobs that can sit on objectives all day. Sprinkle in some support weapons with a Farseer or two and you have the start of something playable.
extremefreak17 wrote: Shining Spears are great with Farseer support, throw in Baharroth for Hit & Run. In the Warhost they can be WS 5.
Storm guardians with fee specials? Yes please spam them with 2x fusion guns and 2x power swords allied DE raiders with nightshields. Not the best unit in the codex for sure, but certainly usefull, and better value than many other units in the game. 147 points for each boat is not bad.
Avatar is not terrible, kinda bad, but still okay. Hide him behind a bastion with 60 guardians nearby in cover with warlocks for some 2+ save blobs that can sit on objectives all day. Sprinkle in some support weapons with a Farseer or two and you have the start of something playable.
Anyone actually run the shining spears? It's a unit I theorized in another thread, but that doesn't make them good, it makes the farseer and baharroth good. And it isn't surprising that adding ~300 points to a 250 point unit seems to be decent.
Do you think storm guardians are better than guardian defenders, doing the same thing? 20 S4 shuriken shots looks pretty good to me. Though if I were to try storms, it would be with a warlock w/spear, 2x fusion gun and 2 power weapons... all free.
Avatar + bastion + 60 guardians + warlocks + support weapons. You are talking about 1,000 points. That's not the start of something, that's about everything.
IMO, if you want to try foot-dar, you run it with ~2 avatars. No limit on them now, and redundancy keeps you going.