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http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/05/asia/north-korea-seismic-event/index.html

A North Korean nuclear test has caused a seismic event in an area in the northeast of the reclusive country. Three previous nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009 and 2013, were conducted in the region.

A televised North Korean statement confirmed the test was a hydrogen bomb test. The test took place at 10 a.m. local time.

The USGS, which measured the event at a magnitude of 5.1, said it occurred 19 kilometers (12 miles) east-northeast of Sungjibaegam.

South Korean foreign ministry hastily convened an emergency meeting, and officials in Japan were also holding discussions.

Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Meh. While a Hydrogen bomb would be a big step scientifically for them, realistically it doesn't change much. They still don't have any reliable long range missiles, which would be a much bigger threat. North Korean ICBMs would be a major threat, being tipped with Fusion or Fission warheads wouldn't be much of a difference. It would be the difference between a city getting wiped out, or just most of a city being wiped out.

They'd really be better served by putting all their effort into missile development instead of trying to get a Hydrogen bomb.

Meh... once you go A-bomb... not that hard to go H-bomb.

Delivery mechanism is the key.

Japan can't be happy (nor China).

Their Hydrogen bomb is just a big balloon they set on fire filled with Hydrogen.

 whembly wrote:
Meh... once you go A-bomb... not that hard to go H-bomb.

Delivery mechanism is the key.

Japan can't be happy (nor China).

I think their previous bombs were more akin to dirty bombs than actually atomic bombs (something about a 3 mile circumference springs to mind), so a hydrogen bomb is a big step up for them. But like you said China won't be happy, especially with all of their allies in the Kim regime getting executed left and right


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 hotsauceman1 wrote:
Their Hydrogen bomb is just a big balloon they set on fire filled with Hydrogen.

North Korean air force best air force

Ehh, they weren't the most powerful atomic bombs, but they were definitely atomic bombs.

 hotsauceman1 wrote:
Their Hydrogen bomb is just a big balloon they set on fire filled with Hydrogen.

LAWL

Do they pop the balloon with a BB Gun?

Nah, they used a catapult and the latest official up for execution.

 hotsauceman1 wrote:
Their Hydrogen bomb is just a big balloon they set on fire filled with Hydrogen.

Doubtful you need electricity to make Hydrogen

Initial seismic readings seem to have similar results with the previous test (10 kilotons, which would make it rather enormously unlikely what they tested was a Teller-Ulam device, unless it fizzled and the fission failed to kick-off the fusion reaction).



Don't forget that North Korea's economy will likely put the kibosh on any technological development that could produce a practically deployed weapon.

http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2013/12/23/kilotons-per-kilogram/

 Grey Templar wrote:
Nah, they used a catapult and the latest official up for execution.

Woah, that is dark man.

We are all going to look silly when South Korea announces the real story, Kim just had a little gas.....

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

Because now, South Korea and Japan would think about jumping into the Nuke arms race.

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

For a number of reasons:

1) This will only push South Korea and Japan closer together as they co-ordinate a missile defence system, something your government has been pushing these nations towards. It's not in China's interest to have these countries strengthen military support for each other, as it only plays into the ring of steel surrounding China narrative.

2) The North will inevitably threaten the South with dire threats, but the South is more useful to China, as it buys a lot of goods from China. North Korea by comparison, needs goods from China.

3) China's long term goal of seeing a united Korea, free of an American military presence, just took a step back, because nobody's going to attack a nuclear North, unless in self-defence, and the North is not that stupid, as it would be game over for them if they launched a nuclear weapon at another country.






Automatically Appended Next Post:

 whembly wrote:

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

Because now, South Korea and Japan would think about jumping into the Nuke arms race.

Missile defence, Whembley, missile defence

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

For a number of reasons:

1) This will only push South Korea and Japan closer together as they co-ordinate a missile defence system, something your government has been pushing these nations towards. It's not in China's interest to have these countries strengthen military support for each other, as it only plays into the ring of steel surrounding China narrative.

2) The North will inevitably threaten the South with dire threats, but the South is more useful to China, as it buys a lot of goods from China. North Korea by comparison, needs goods from China.

3) China's long term goal of seeing a united Korea, free of an American military presence, just took a step back, because nobody's going to attack a nuclear North, unless in self-defence, and the North is not that stupid, as it would be game over for them if they launched a nuclear weapon at another country.






Automatically Appended Next Post:

 whembly wrote:

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

Because now, South Korea and Japan would think about jumping into the Nuke arms race.

Missile defence, Whembley, missile defence

Missile defense is part of it, but actually it's tiny.

Having Nukes gets you on the international "big boy" table. That's why NK and Iran is pushing their developlemnts.

 whembly wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

For a number of reasons:

1) This will only push South Korea and Japan closer together as they co-ordinate a missile defence system, something your government has been pushing these nations towards. It's not in China's interest to have these countries strengthen military support for each other, as it only plays into the ring of steel surrounding China narrative.

2) The North will inevitably threaten the South with dire threats, but the South is more useful to China, as it buys a lot of goods from China. North Korea by comparison, needs goods from China.

3) China's long term goal of seeing a united Korea, free of an American military presence, just took a step back, because nobody's going to attack a nuclear North, unless in self-defence, and the North is not that stupid, as it would be game over for them if they launched a nuclear weapon at another country.






Automatically Appended Next Post:

 whembly wrote:

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

Because now, South Korea and Japan would think about jumping into the Nuke arms race.

Missile defence, Whembley, missile defence

Missile defense is part of it, but actually it's tiny.

Having Nukes gets you on the international "big boy" table. That's why NK and Iran is pushing their developlemnts.

It doesn't matter if it's nukes or missile defence - China doesn't want closer military ties between SK and Japan, they would much prefer them to be divided over the 1940s. NK's nukes are only going to throw a spanner in the works. The Chinese should be annoyed at that, as it's affecting the geo-political balance.

Don't forget, Iran's resurgence has seen the unlikely coming together of the Saudis and Israel, as least behind the scenes.

 Grey Templar wrote:
They'd really be better served by putting all their effort into missile development instead of trying to get a Hydrogen bomb.

Nah, they'd be better served feeding and educating their fething people.

A skilled and well-fed populace is the most powerful weapon a nation can have.

Kim was probably feeling wonery because ISIS are hogging all the attention, so he made a big bang noise. The world looked over it shoulder, tutted loudly and went back to being concerned with the pyjama-wearing death cultists in the middle east

I think the seismic activity was the result of Kim's fury after finding out the cake is a lie.

In related news I tested a Scuba Steve in the bathtub. Results were mixed.

 whembly wrote:

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

Because now, South Korea and Japan would think about jumping into the Nuke arms race.

Even though South Korea and Japan have the technology to do so, I don't think Seoul is allowed to build nuclear weapons (not that they even need too because the US is committed to their defense). The same goes for Japan.

 ScootyPuffJunior wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

Because now, South Korea and Japan would think about jumping into the Nuke arms race.

Even though South Korea and Japan have the technology to do so, I don't think Seoul is allowed to build nuclear weapons (not that they even need too because the US is committed to their defense). The same goes for Japan.

Japan has been repealing their pacifist clause for a while now, in theory I could see it happening.

 ScootyPuffJunior wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 Ouze wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:
[url]Personally I doubt they tested a hydrogen bomb, but if they did I highly doubt China will protect NK anymore (especially with their ties being weakened since Un took power).

Why do you think this would sour NK-China relations?

Because now, South Korea and Japan would think about jumping into the Nuke arms race.

Even though South Korea and Japan have the technology to do so, I don't think Seoul is allowed to build nuclear weapons (not that they even need too because the US is committed to their defense). The same goes for Japan.

I don't think we could stop 'em.

I mean Ukraine was promised security if they'd give up their nukes... look at 'em now.

I don't think SK or Japan are quite 'there' to unilaterally build nukes, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get 'em in our lifetime.

 whembly wrote:
I don't think we could stop 'em.

I don't think you realize how influential the US is and how unwilling both countries are to renege on treaties and agreements made with us and other countries.

I mean Ukraine was promised security if they'd give up their nukes... look at 'em now.

Apples and oranges.

I don't think SK or Japan are quite 'there' to unilaterally build nukes, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get 'em in our lifetime.

Japan is considered, for all intents and purposes, a defacto nuclear state. While they have no current nuclear weapons program, observers have no doubt that the county could build a nuclear weapon in no more than a year's time and they already have capable delivery systems.

South Korea is also in a similar position, though it might take them slightly longer to build a functional warhead (but most likely not more than three years).

 ScootyPuffJunior wrote:

 whembly wrote:
I don't think we could stop 'em.

I don't think you realize how influential the US is and how unwilling both countries are to renege on treaties and agreements made with us and other countries.

I don't buy that US has as much influence as it once had...

I mean Ukraine was promised security if they'd give up their nukes... look at 'em now.

Apples and oranges.

Are you really trying to argue that had Ukraine not given up the nukes (in exchange for security), that Russia would still be doing it's shenanigans?

I don't think SK or Japan are quite 'there' to unilaterally build nukes, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get 'em in our lifetime.

Japan is considered, for all intents and purposes, a defacto nuclear state. While they have no current nuclear weapons program, observers have no doubt that the county could build a nuclear weapon in no more than a year's time and they already have capable delivery systems.

South Korea is also in a similar position, though it might take them slightly longer to build a functional warhead (but most likely not more than three years).

Agreed. Furthermore, I think it'd take a very public demonstration of a nuke test in North Korea (or China get a wee bit aggressive in the south sea) for SK/Japan to start building 'em.

 whembly wrote:
I don't buy that US has as much influence as it once had...

Let me guess, Obama has made the US look weak, blah, blah, blah...

Regardless of what you believe, Seoul-Washington relations are better now than they have been in a long time. South Koreans poll among the highest in the world when it comes to having positive views of the United States. Likewise, Japan is one of the most pro-American counties in the world as well and they're one of our closest allies and partners. Seriously, they're as close we can get to BFFs.

Are you really trying to argue that had Ukraine not given up the nukes (in exchange for security), that Russia would still be doing it's shenanigans?

No, I'm telling you that comparing what the Ukraine went through during their independence and our relationship with South Korea and Japan are not comparable.

Agreed. Furthermore, I think it'd take a very public demonstration of a nuke test in North Korea (or China get a wee bit aggressive in the south sea) for SK/Japan to start building 'em.

Still probably won't happen.

 ScootyPuffJunior wrote:

 whembly wrote:
I don't buy that US has as much influence as it once had...

Let me guess, Obama has made the US look weak, blah, blah, blah...

Nah... not really. It was Billy Clinton's administration that worked that "agreement" with NK.

Regardless of what you believe, Seoul-Washington relations are better now than they have been in a long time. South Koreans poll among the highest in the world when it comes to having positive views of the United States. Likewise, Japan is one of the most pro-American counties in the world as well and they're one of our closest allies and partners. Seriously, they're as close we can get to BFFs.

Right... but why would *we* be the one to say "no" to SK/Japan? To make China and Russia happy?

Are you really trying to argue that had Ukraine not given up the nukes (in exchange for security), that Russia would still be doing it's shenanigans?

No, I'm telling you that comparing what the Ukraine went through during their independence and our relationship with South Korea and Japan are not comparable.

You conflating things... That was a decision of whether or not Ukraine would keep their nukes. Not what Ukraine went through during their independence.

Agreed. Furthermore, I think it'd take a very public demonstration of a nuke test in North Korea (or China get a wee bit aggressive in the south sea) for SK/Japan to start building 'em.

Still probably won't happen.

I wholeheartedly disagree...

*THATS* why China isn't happy with NK. China does not want NK to encourage SK/Japan to do so.

 whembly wrote:
Right... but why would *we* be the one to say "no" to SK/Japan? To make China and Russia happy?

Because non-proliferation in that area of the world is a security concern to the United States.

You conflating things... That was a decision of whether or not Ukraine would keep their nukes. Not what Ukraine went through during their independence.

They're all tied together, Whembly. The Ukraine voted for independence in 1991 and signed the NPT in 1994 as a result of the Budapest Memorandum (of which we're not legally bound to, by the way).

Still, trying to compare that agreement to the one we have with South Korea or how Japan feels about nuclear weapons is still comparing apples to oranges.

I wholeheartedly disagree...

*THATS* why China isn't happy with NK. China does not want NK to encourage SK/Japan to do so.

China doesn't want North Korea to collapse and unify with South Korea because, among other things, it means the United States will be right on their doorstep. Not to mention the chaos it would cause on the Korean Peninsula, something Beijing is trying to actively avoid.

 ScootyPuffJunior wrote:

 whembly wrote:
Right... but why would *we* be the one to say "no" to SK/Japan? To make China and Russia happy?

Because non-proliferation in that area of the world is a security concern to the United States.

And not of Iran, Pakistan, India and presumably the rest of the mideast?

You conflating things... That was a decision of whether or not Ukraine would keep their nukes. Not what Ukraine went through during their independence.

They're all tied together, Whembly. The Ukraine voted for independence in 1991 and signed the NPT in 1994 as a result of the Budapest Memorandum (of which we're not legally bound to, by the way).

Ukraine didn't *want* to sign the NPT initially. If I were them at time time, I wouldn't either. But the west offered a gentleman's agreement to help with it's security and dangle the possibility of nato membership.

Still, trying to compare that agreement to the one we have with South Korea or how Japan feels about nuclear weapons is still comparing apples to oranges.

Okay... you go with that.

I wholeheartedly disagree...

*THATS* why China isn't happy with NK. China does not want NK to encourage SK/Japan to do so.

China doesn't want North Korea to collapse and unify with South Korea because, among other things, it means the United States will be right on their doorstep. Not to mention the chaos it would cause on the Korean Peninsula, something Beijing is trying to actively avoid.

And NK sparking a nuke arms race in that region wont?

Considering Japan has, to this day, still advocates a nuclear disarmament policy, I doupt the fact that a country which hires people to act out an existance in a run down town might have test a nuclear weapon, I doupt they care.
I mean, how is NK even gonna deliver it?