JNAProductions wrote:Running the numbers, a
Tac Marine without gear has a 39.51% chance of doing a wound to an Ork on the charge. Each turn after that, it's down to a 22.22% chance.
An Ork Boy without gear has a 55.56% chance of doing at least one wound, and an 11.11% chance of doing two in a single fight.
If we assume they strike simultaneously, that means you're looking at...
Round One
39.51% chance of Ork Death
11.11% chance of Marine Death
Comparing that to the 3rd ed codex (which was in play for 9 years, 1999 - 2008).
(without gear first, as you did)
25% chance of Ork Death
50% chance of Marine Death
This doesn't take into account initiative, which had it's own little design space where it could be ignored/bypassed depending on what's going on. But in terms of
raw lethality you can spot a pretty big difference between then and now.
(With gear - Slugga Boy with Choppa)
20% chance of Ork death
25% chance of Marine death
A really big factor was charging, which granted an extra attack. This created a really critical opportunity for the Marines, as they doubled their single attack (and therefore lethality) on the charge. Orks however would usually double their initiative on the charge (evening out that stat advantage) and only getting them a 33% boost in lethality (4 attacks vs. 3).
Orks charging
33.3% chance to kill a Marine
Marines charging
41.5% chance to kill an Ork
This put Marines individually on the back foot against Orks unless the Marines charged, which was just about perfect,
imo.