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Made in se
Dakka Veteran





tneva82 wrote:
 Da-Rock wrote:

The Sagituars getting a 5++ is nice, but I learned long ago that my rolling saves in the 5 and 6 range are pretty bad so I am not jumping out of my seat.


Bad as in 33% of the rolls


He said that he is bad at rolling 5+, not that a 5+ is bad.

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Made in fi
5th God of Chaos (O'rly?)





Well he is saying bollocks then. Nobody is different in rolling dice ;-)

Just because you think you are bad at rolling 5+ doesn't mean you are. It's confirmation bias. You roll bad and it sticks in your mind. Hey presto the false theory sticks.

Unless he's using lousy dices. They could be loaded though as said lousy dices. If you use loaded dices rolling bad is so stupid idea that they are lousy dices for that purpose as well

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/10/05 10:44:05


2022 painted/bought: 681/867 
   
Made in se
Dakka Veteran





Sigh, some people just can't admit that they read things wrong can they?

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Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut





Denison, Iowa

Okay, my general list (and sorry for any spelling/terminology mistakes).

High Kahl, Volkite/fist
Kahl, Volkite/fist
Grimnyr

20 Herthkyn, Fist/plasma pistol, 2 L7, 2 plasma
20 Herthkyn, Fist, 2 L7, 2 plasma
20 Herthkyn, Fist, 2 L7, 2 plasma
10 Herthkyn, Sword, L7, plasma
10 Herthkyn, Ax, L7, plasma
10 Herthkyn, Fist, L7, Rail Rifle

2x Sagitaur with Sagitaur missile launchers.

With this much infantry I'm not sure which League to use. +1 Toughness would be nice, but treating 1 Grudge token as 2 is also good.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/10/05 12:25:26


 
   
Made in us
Kinebrach-Knobbling Xeno Interrogator





 cuda1179 wrote:
Okay, my general list (and sorry for any spelling/terminology mistakes).

High Kahl, Volkite/fist
Kahl, Volkite/fist
Grimnyr

20 Herthkyn, Fist/plasma pistol, 2 L7, 2 plasma
20 Herthkyn, Fist, 2 L7, 2 plasma
20 Herthkyn, Fist, 2 L7, 2 plasma
10 Herthkyn, Sword, L7, plasma
10 Herthkyn, Ax, L7, plasma
10 Herthkyn, Fist, L7, Rail Rifle

2x Sagitaur with Sagitaur missile launchers.

With this much infantry I'm not sure which League to use. +1 Toughness would be nice, but treating 1 Grudge token as 2 is also good.



Consider Ymyr at all? One of the cool things I like about Ymyr is that the invulnerable part of the Custom lets you decentralize away from your Kahl's Rampart Crest aura. The extra range will help you punch out sooner with your infantry as well.
   
Made in us
Shas'la with Pulse Carbine




Sacratomato

tneva82 wrote:
Well he is saying bollocks then. Nobody is different in rolling dice ;-)

Just because you think you are bad at rolling 5+ doesn't mean you are. It's confirmation bias. You roll bad and it sticks in your mind. Hey presto the false theory sticks.

Unless he's using lousy dices. They could be loaded though as said lousy dices. If you use loaded dices rolling bad is so stupid idea that they are lousy dices for that purpose as well


LOL.....Man I get what you're saying, but Chaos theory would like to have a word with you. In our group we have guys who kill it on 5 up saves, but can't save a 3+ to save a life, (Haaaa see what I did there?). If mine is a 4 up save I get comments that its "Auto Save time". For the most part I agree it's a mental thing, but saying something like, "everyone rolls the same", makes no sense physically because that would be obviously false.

My other favorite comment about statistics and percentages is this human condition of thinking a percentage is absolute. 99% chance of not dying is awesome.......but it's not 100% and I'm pretty sure anyone who falls into that 1% doesn't give a crap that the statistics showed they had a 99% chance of not dying. It's similar to those who think because they are right that it somehow gives them armor against bad stuff.

33% chance of saving sucks balls because all I see is the 67% chance of failing....which neither view means anything until you roll the dice.........................it's all like my view on life, you are told to sit in the corner of a round room and are then judged on how well you accomplish it.

70% of all statistics are made up on the spot by 64% of the people that produce false statistics 54% of the time that they produce them. 
   
Made in de
Ladies Love the Vibro-Cannon Operator






Hamburg

 MinscS2 wrote:
tneva82 wrote:
 Da-Rock wrote:

The Sagituars getting a 5++ is nice, but I learned long ago that my rolling saves in the 5 and 6 range are pretty bad so I am not jumping out of my seat.


Bad as in 33% of the rolls


He said that he is bad at rolling 5+, not that a 5+ is bad.


I'm in the same boat.
Rolling of 5+ is not reliable for me and so I dont count on it.
But 4+ is a totally different thing though.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/10/06 07:29:56


Former moderator 40kOnline

Lanchester's square law - please obey in list building!

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Made in us
Big Mek in Kustom Dragster with Soopa-Gun





Nebraska, USA

Yes, rolling a die is statistically identical between people.
Yes, people still bias to hate certain rolls anyway.

I'm known in my area as 2- roller. Virtually every time i have a single die 2+ check i fail it. I legit had to look up the rules for Ramming Speed mortal wounds once because i actually failed it so many damn times in a row i forgot how many wounds it did lol

An ork with an idea tends to end with a bang.

14000pts Big 'n Bad Orkz
6000pts Admech/Knights
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Made in us
Shas'la with Pulse Carbine




Sacratomato

People often misunderstand the end game of statistics. They don't look at the journey, just the final destination:

You can have two people rolling dice 100 times - statistically you can have one roll all 1s while the other rolls all 6s. If you roll enough times you get your average.

People lose sight of that when they talk about statistics. The journey to that average matters. A lot of people see what they want to see out of it........80% means you are almost always successful........what does it mean if all of that 80% happens during igsignificant moments of a game while the 20% plays out during the crucial moments?

This is the dice % that cracks me up for the mathhammer players. They need to read some chaos theory to see a bigger picture.

70% of all statistics are made up on the spot by 64% of the people that produce false statistics 54% of the time that they produce them. 
   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




 Da-Rock wrote:


This is the dice % that cracks me up for the mathhammer players. They need to read some chaos theory to see a bigger picture.


friend wanted me to make a mono ork doubles list - 18 squigs, 17 deffkoptas, 2 mega dreads, squig boss, zagstruk, 20 grots.

on paper/avg those deff koptas do work. i actually play orks and i know better but i say nothing and let him have his fun.

i giggled the whole day watching him lose his mind rolling hot on the number of rokkit shots only to get 10% hits, or completely obliterate some poor 100 point unit when he rolls 22 hits out of 26 shots. all i could think was the james franco head in a noose "First time?" meme.

round 2 vs death guard+tau was especially brutal, DG pull off a long bomb charge and had 7 blightlord termies contesting an objective for 3 turns while they chewed up squig hogs that were suddenly doing half damage and hitting 25% less. he could figure out why they wouldnt die
   
Made in se
Dakka Veteran





So, I'm pretty sure that points will change (drop), but currently:

- 2 Sagitaurs with HYLas Beam Cannons and Twin Bolt Cannons = 300 pts

- 1 Hekaton /w Whatever-Main-Weapon-You-Fancy and 4 Bolt Cannons = 300 pts.
(Let's go with the SP Beamer for similarities sake.)

Sagitaurs:
18(2x9) T7 wounds with 3+ save.
4 S9 AP3 D.D6 24" Beam shots
12 Bolt Cannon shots (same as Hekaton.)
Can transport 2x5 space dwarfs.

Hekaton:
16 T8 wounds with 2+ save.
2 S8 AP3 D4 30" Beam shots that do double hits more than 15" away.
6 S7 AP2 D2 24" shots.
12 Bolt Cannon shots (same as Sagutairs).
Can transport 10 space dwarfs.
Ignores Light Cover when it shoots + Scanner keyword.

Am I missing something, but when and why would you ever bring 2 Sagitaurs over 1 Hekaton?

(Yes, I know both are overpriced, especially the Sagitaur.)

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2022/10/29 13:59:20


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Denison, Iowa

But can a Hekaton be in two places at once?
   
Made in se
Dakka Veteran





 cuda1179 wrote:
But can a Hekaton be in two places at once?


If it explodes, I can't see why not.

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Made in us
Grim Dark Angels Interrogator-Chaplain






A Protoss colony world

I would think Sagitaurs are easier to hide, plus the whole combat squad thing (if that turns out being useful; the jury's out on that one). Not sure the beam weapon is the best choice on the Sagitaur either; aren't the other guns cheaper?

Hekatons are overcosted, but let's be honest here they were broken at 230.

My armies (re-counted and updated on 4/26/22, including modeled wargear options):
Dark Angels: ~18000 | Space Marines (Blood Ravens and others): ~900 | Space Wolves: ~5000
Astra Militarum: ~800 | Adeptus Custodes: ~1100 | Imperial Knights: ~1300 | Sisters of Battle: ~4300
Check out my P&M Blogs: ZergSmasher's P&M Blog | Imperial Knights blog | Total models painted in 2021: 114 | Total models painted in 2022: 51 | Current main painting project: Middle-Earth Easterlings
 Mr_Rose wrote:
Who doesn’t love crazy mutant squawk-puppies? Eh? Nobody, that’s who.
 
   
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Regular Dakkanaut




Their win rate in Tournaments after the nerf is 30 percent according to Auspex Tactics, which means they are post-nerf perhaps the weakest faction in the game.
   
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A Protoss colony world

Asenion wrote:
Their win rate in Tournaments after the nerf is 30 percent according to Auspex Tactics, which means they are post-nerf perhaps the weakest faction in the game.

The sample size so far is way too small to make such a broad claim. Once they've been in the wild (with their full model range) for a month or so, maybe then we can make educated claims about how strong/weak they are.

My armies (re-counted and updated on 4/26/22, including modeled wargear options):
Dark Angels: ~18000 | Space Marines (Blood Ravens and others): ~900 | Space Wolves: ~5000
Astra Militarum: ~800 | Adeptus Custodes: ~1100 | Imperial Knights: ~1300 | Sisters of Battle: ~4300
Check out my P&M Blogs: ZergSmasher's P&M Blog | Imperial Knights blog | Total models painted in 2021: 114 | Total models painted in 2022: 51 | Current main painting project: Middle-Earth Easterlings
 Mr_Rose wrote:
Who doesn’t love crazy mutant squawk-puppies? Eh? Nobody, that’s who.
 
   
Made in gb
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UK

Asenion wrote:
Their win rate in Tournaments after the nerf is 30 percent according to Auspex Tactics, which means they are post-nerf perhaps the weakest faction in the game.
This is misleading, quite a few of the tournaments sampled required correct models only, severely limiting unit choice. I bet if we check back in once all models are available there will be a substantial improvement in performance, they may not be a potential top OP faction anymore but they will not be a bottom tier one either.
   
Made in de
Ladies Love the Vibro-Cannon Operator






Hamburg

 Insularum wrote:
Asenion wrote:
Their win rate in Tournaments after the nerf is 30 percent according to Auspex Tactics, which means they are post-nerf perhaps the weakest faction in the game.
This is misleading, quite a few of the tournaments sampled required correct models only, severely limiting unit choice. I bet if we check back in once all models are available there will be a substantial improvement in performance, they may not be a potential top OP faction anymore but they will not be a bottom tier one either.

Performance will certainly improve when all the new shiny models are out there and players have understood how to play this faction.
I wonder how a horde of squat Warriors will do?

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2022/10/31 10:37:31


Former moderator 40kOnline

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Made in ca
Shas'ui with Bonding Knife





So with the changes, what are the best options for bringing heavy weapons with the Hearthkyn?

Is the rail rifle just overprice at this point and better to go with the missile launcher, is it good to double up on heavy weapons like HYlas/Plasma Beamer and missile launcher?
   
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UK

 Nilok wrote:
So with the changes, what are the best options for bringing heavy weapons with the Hearthkyn?

Is the rail rifle just overprice at this point and better to go with the missile launcher, is it good to double up on heavy weapons like HYlas/Plasma Beamer and missile launcher?

Still probably too early to say with any certainty, but IMO from best to worst:
1. Magna-rail (squat with this is 1 point cheaper than marine with lascannon, and better in every way that counts)
2. L7 missile (better missile launcher)
3. Plasma Beamer (generally not worth it, can be good with superior beam capacitors for tagging a unit to hit with core buster)
4. HYLas (model looks nice but adds nothing of value over bolters or ion guns, only take if you have nothing else to spend 5 points on)

I'd probably go for a matching pair of the big guns on a 20 strong squad, not so sure on mixing and matching any of the others on a squad of 10 though.
   
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Denison, Iowa

For the cost I'm going full-tilt with L7 missile launchers. 10 points for a move and fire missile launcher is nice, despite a less-than-great range. I'm packing 9 of them in my list.

As for Sagitaurs, I'm going with Sag. Missle launchers. St10 is too good to pass up.
   
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 cuda1179 wrote:
For the cost I'm going full-tilt with L7 missile launchers. 10 points for a move and fire missile launcher is nice, despite a less-than-great range. I'm packing 9 of them in my list.

As for Sagitaurs, I'm going with Sag. Missle launchers. St10 is too good to pass up.


I could be wrong, but in a unit of 10 you can't duplicate the L7 so to have 9 your going to need 90 of them?

I was thinking I'd build 1 with rail and 1 with L7 but that does add quite a few extra points to the list when you have 3 squads of 10

Completely agree on the sag loadout. The missile launcher seems the best pick. Followed by the beam cannon. But that doesn't seem worth the extra 10 points over the launcher unless you get really good at lining up beam shots most turns.

I really can't decide how to build the beserks. Any suggestions for a unit of 5?
   
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Been Around the Block




Snitchey wrote:


I really can't decide how to build the beserks. Any suggestions for a unit of 5?


My friend who, I admit, is a much better player than me loves the hammers. I am thinking the axes tho. I just feel like the flexibility of the two types of hits wins out. That sweep attack can really come in handy imo.
   
Made in fi
Fresh-Faced New User




I have to be missing something here. The L7 launcher has an ok profile for light infantry, but the focused profile is just plain bad with AOC.
   
Made in de
Fresh-Faced New User




Domandi wrote:
Snitchey wrote:


I really can't decide how to build the beserks. Any suggestions for a unit of 5?


My friend who, I admit, is a much better player than me loves the hammers. I am thinking the axes tho. I just feel like the flexibility of the two types of hits wins out. That sweep attack can really come in handy imo.


I agree with you on the axes. They are more versatile. What I can't decide on is whether to add the gauntlets and the mole grenade launcher? The gauntlets seem a halfway house between the hammers and axes. But I wonder if the mole would be a distraction from getting these into melee ASAP


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Kapteenigalaksi wrote:
I have to be missing something here. The L7 launcher has an ok profile for light infantry, but the focused profile is just plain bad with AOC.


It seems very similar to a lascannon to me. Shorter range but move and fire without penalty helps. I think the rail is overall the best pick as it's scary to almost everything. What else would you take alongside the rail instead of the L7?

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/11/04 09:56:57


 
   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




I wonder if the mole would be a distraction from getting these into melee ASAP


The mole is pure upside for 10 points. Mole does not replace their weapon, its in addition to, it gives them some non-los shooting, it grants an extra wound and attack, and most importantly opens up the 2cp strat to make something move half speed and fight last which could potentially be discounted via forgemaster.
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut





Denison, Iowa

Snitchey wrote:
 cuda1179 wrote:
For the cost I'm going full-tilt with L7 missile launchers. 10 points for a move and fire missile launcher is nice, despite a less-than-great range. I'm packing 9 of them in my list.

As for Sagitaurs, I'm going with Sag. Missle launchers. St10 is too good to pass up.


I could be wrong, but in a unit of 10 you can't duplicate the L7 so to have 9 your going to need 90 of them?


92 Hearthkyn in my standard 2000 point list. I like hordes.
   
Made in gb
Fresh-Faced New User




That's a lot of troops! I aways prefer smaller model counts. Less to paint!


Automatically Appended Next Post:
terennNash wrote:
I wonder if the mole would be a distraction from getting these into melee ASAP


The mole is pure upside for 10 points. Mole does not replace their weapon, its in addition to, it gives them some non-los shooting, it grants an extra wound and attack, and most importantly opens up the 2cp strat to make something move half speed and fight last which could potentially be discounted via forgemaster.


Thanks for pointing that out. I assumed it was a replacement weapon not an additional. For 10 pts feels like a steal. The Gauntlets look alright to me for 5 pts to get an extra attack & make all those attacks higher strength than axe strike

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/11/04 21:32:54


 
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut





Denison, Iowa

Yeah, I'm hoping that with all the infantry counting as two models and throwing judgement tokens out like crazy with two Kahls I can keep objectives I claim early, then abuse all the autowounding on a 4+ to hit I'll do.
   
Made in us
Fixture of Dakka






terennNash wrote:
I wonder if the mole would be a distraction from getting these into melee ASAP


The mole is pure upside for 10 points. Mole does not replace their weapon, its in addition to, it gives them some non-los shooting, it grants an extra wound and attack, and most importantly opens up the 2cp strat to make something move half speed and fight last which could potentially be discounted via forgemaster.


It also does have a couple cons for its larger base size, which I already had to work around a couple games so 1 of my Beserk units will not have it.

   
 
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