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Seems like a no brainer that the IP dept costs more than it makes; do they sell anything? ... not really (granted theres been a surge of ip rights sold to frankly garbage phone/tablet games that I assumed no one bought)

All I really see them do, is sue people over intellectual property, that costs money and doesnt directly make anything in return, its hard to pinpoint a sale as because they successfully sued and stopped such n such a guy from selling something. Unless they win damages in court, theres no gains to be spoken of from it.

Things like the chapterhouse case, gw spent lots on (fair enough that wasnt this year) and gained nothing. (except bad will)

If they had successfully stopped chatperhouse from operating entirely, thats nothing but lost sales for GW.
Anyone buying a upgrade part from Chapterhouse for a GW model... had to buy a GW model to need the upgrade part.
But GW sued them to stop it becasue.... yeah...shut up!... thats why!
With a dept like that, I doubt anyone ever expected to see any black on this particular dept's books.

The IP department save GW a fortune. The UK government offer fairly substantial tax breaks for IP's based within the UK. The higher the value you can attach to your IP the more you can put down as an intangible asset.

The CHS case may well significantly damage the future value of their IP.

Knockagh wrote:
The IP department save GW a fortune. The UK government offer fairly substantial tax breaks for IP's based within the UK. The higher the value you can attach to your IP the more you can put down as an intangible asset.

The CHS case may well significantly damage the future value of their IP.

Especially if the Fantasy rumors are true of all limited releases, all the time. 3rd party casters (not recasters) are primed to make a good amount of money providing models that GW has made limited quantities of. Can't wait for that to blow up in GWs face.

Barfolomew wrote:

Knockagh wrote:
The IP department save GW a fortune. The UK government offer fairly substantial tax breaks for IP's based within the UK. The higher the value you can attach to your IP the more you can put down as an intangible asset.

The CHS case may well significantly damage the future value of their IP.

Especially if the Fantasy rumors are true of all limited releases, all the time. 3rd party casters (not recasters) are primed to make a good amount of money providing models that GW has made limited quantities of. Can't wait for that to blow up in GWs face.

I wouldnt gloat too much laddie. If I had a crystal ball I wager it would predict the outcome of all this mess that GW are in at the minute will be the digitizing of the game. If GW can no longer control the game and it's components I think they will be looking down some more tightly controlled realms. But these wheels will move slowly and markets will dictate.....

Knockagh wrote:
I wouldnt gloat too much laddie. If I had a crystal ball I wager it would predict the outcome of all this mess that GW are in at the minute will be the digitizing of the game. If GW can no longer control the game and it's components I think they will be looking down some more tightly controlled realms. But these wheels will move slowly and markets will dictate.....

That would be a suicidally stupid plan. Digitising the game as a form of DLC means removing all backwards compatibility, which in turn means that you have replaced your only product with Ex Illis - a game which has already crashed and burned once - except this time produced by a consumer-hostile company people actively resent.

Well, they do seem to be doing a digital game now


and



I would hate to see this mean the games are becoming "Freemium" games.

GW is already controlling the way miniatures are released to prevent being ninja'ed on them.
Supplements, digital editions and rules in the model box all help to prevent other suppliers from getting an anticipated unit model out first.
They either have to release with paperwork in stages or all at once for new models while stuff already out there they do not need to be so careful.

They are kinda sucking in the computer game department lately, too bad.
Could you imagine a Wasteland 2 style game with any character type from their IP?
They have such good stuff to draw from but seem tight fisted in getting it out there.

 AlexHolker wrote:

Knockagh wrote:
I wouldnt gloat too much laddie. If I had a crystal ball I wager it would predict the outcome of all this mess that GW are in at the minute will be the digitizing of the game. If GW can no longer control the game and it's components I think they will be looking down some more tightly controlled realms. But these wheels will move slowly and markets will dictate.....

That would be a suicidally stupid plan. Digitising the game as a form of DLC means removing all backwards compatibility, which in turn means that you have replaced your only product with Ex Illis - a game which has already crashed and burned once - except this time produced by a consumer-hostile company people actively resent.

I didnt understand a thing you said there I'm afraid! Technologys not my thing, but I know a little about controlling markets and how important it is (I'm a farmer and we dream everyday of market control!) and regardless of all the technical issues you see I'm sure GW will be looking towards avenues were they can more tightly control the market they created. They would be crazy not too.

Knockagh wrote:
I didnt understand a thing you said there I'm afraid!

You have a pre-DLC army. GW says you aren't allowed to use your pre-DLC army to play post-DLC Warhammer. Do you (a) throw them all out and buy a new army so you can play post-DLC Warhammer or (b) use your hundreds of dollars of miniatures to play some other game than post-DLC Warhammer?

Warhammer is already so expensive that people are refusing to start new armies. Tell everyone they have to start a new army and you destroy the sunk costs that were letting you keep them as customers.

Knockagh wrote:

 AlexHolker wrote:

Knockagh wrote:
I wouldnt gloat too much laddie. If I had a crystal ball I wager it would predict the outcome of all this mess that GW are in at the minute will be the digitizing of the game. If GW can no longer control the game and it's components I think they will be looking down some more tightly controlled realms. But these wheels will move slowly and markets will dictate.....

That would be a suicidally stupid plan. Digitising the game as a form of DLC means removing all backwards compatibility, which in turn means that you have replaced your only product with Ex Illis - a game which has already crashed and burned once - except this time produced by a consumer-hostile company people actively resent.

I didnt understand a thing you said there I'm afraid! Technologys not my thing, but I know a little about controlling markets and how important it is (I'm a farmer and we dream everyday of market control!) and regardless of all the technical issues you see I'm sure GW will be looking towards avenues were they can more tightly control the market they created. They would be crazy not too.

GW can only attempt to control the market in Warhammer. I think that is one of their problems. Their core problem is that the market in Warhammer has been shrinking for years.

The report I was privy to explains that GW is bleeding to death on key points and they are.

Customer base: Since the reporting period from 2012 to 2014 GW has been bleeding globally 4,000 customer per month, that takes into consideration of new customers coming into the GW scene and those leaving the GW scene, result is that
GW has a negative customer growth of 4,000 customer per month, total loss of net global customers in the last 2.5 years is 144,000 customers. This is unrecoverable.

Sales of Product: Since the reporting period of 2013/14 to half year report 2014 GW is bleeding 615,500 British Pounds per month in lost sales. GW has racked up more than 15 million pounds in sales losses since the reporting period of 2013/14. This is unrecoverable.

Stock Market Value: From Oct 2013 GW shares were 820p per share, at the time of the report in Nov 2014 shares were 550p per share. The report indicated that GW shares are on a downward trend, this is reflected as of the 22nd January 2015 they have dropped to 495p per share.
GW shares in the last two years have fallen 23.66%. The report indicated that loss of the two key points above will contribute in future share prices.

Stock: The report indicates that at anyone time up to 40% of stock currently on shelves in GW stores and Trade Partners is 6 months and older. In main distribution centres it is 12 months and older. GW has tried to shed older stock by removing the contents from older boxes and repacked them
into multi unit box sets, this has failed. GW refuses to have stock clearance sales to recover lost revenue.

And of course you cannot verify any of this.

 Achaylus72 wrote:
GW refuses to have stock clearance sales to recover lost revenue.

Another problem of their own creation.

 Achaylus72 wrote:
The report I was privy to explains that GW is bleeding to death on key points and they are.

Customer base: Since the reporting period from 2012 to 2014 GW has been bleeding globally 4,000 customer per month, that takes into consideration of new customers coming into the GW scene and those leaving the GW scene, result is that
GW has a negative customer growth of 4,000 customer per month, total loss of net global customers in the last 2.5 years is 144,000 customers. This is unrecoverable.

Sales of Product: Since the reporting period of 2013/14 to half year report 2014 GW is bleeding 615,500 British Pounds per month in lost sales. GW has racked up more than 15 million pounds in sales losses since the reporting period of 2013/14. This is unrecoverable.

Stock Market Value: From Oct 2013 GW shares were 820p per share, at the time of the report in Nov 2014 shares were 550p per share. The report indicated that GW shares are on a downward trend, this is reflected as of the 22nd January 2015 they have dropped to 495p per share.
GW shares in the last two years have fallen 23.66%. The report indicated that loss of the two key points above will contribute in future share prices.

Stock: The report indicates that at anyone time up to 40% of stock currently on shelves in GW stores and Trade Partners is 6 months and older. In main distribution centres it is 12 months and older. GW has tried to shed older stock by removing the contents from older boxes and repacked them
into multi unit box sets, this has failed. GW refuses to have stock clearance sales to recover lost revenue.

I'm sorry, but you've cried wolf on more than one occasion, presenting your opinion as "facts" phrased in a way to imply that you have some sort of inside knowledge.

Coupled with the fact your "insights" are nothing more than facts on public record, very simple extrapolations based on those facts and assertions which, frankly, even with all the information at your disposal, would be difficult to quantify.

So....

Nope.

 Achaylus72 wrote:
The report I was privy to explains that GW is bleeding to death on key points and they are.

Customer base: Since the reporting period from 2012 to 2014 GW has been bleeding globally 4,000 customer per month, that takes into consideration of new customers coming into the GW scene and those leaving the GW scene, result is that
GW has a negative customer growth of 4,000 customer per month, total loss of net global customers in the last 2.5 years is 144,000 customers. This is unrecoverable.

Sales of Product: Since the reporting period of 2013/14 to half year report 2014 GW is bleeding 615,500 British Pounds per month in lost sales. GW has racked up more than 15 million pounds in sales losses since the reporting period of 2013/14. This is unrecoverable.

Stock Market Value: From Oct 2013 GW shares were 820p per share, at the time of the report in Nov 2014 shares were 550p per share. The report indicated that GW shares are on a downward trend, this is reflected as of the 22nd January 2015 they have dropped to 495p per share.
GW shares in the last two years have fallen 23.66%. The report indicated that loss of the two key points above will contribute in future share prices.

Stock: The report indicates that at anyone time up to 40% of stock currently on shelves in GW stores and Trade Partners is 6 months and older. In main distribution centres it is 12 months and older. GW has tried to shed older stock by removing the contents from older boxes and repacked them
into multi unit box sets, this has failed. GW refuses to have stock clearance sales to recover lost revenue.

Well, its a rumour and i'm treating it with a grain of salt. But the things you've written don't surprise me, and certainly seem to fit what we're seeing. On the other hand, where does an ozzie get confidential Nottingham reports from? Grain of salt.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
And of course you cannot verify any of this.

 Achaylus72 wrote:
GW refuses to have stock clearance sales to recover lost revenue.

Another problem of their own creation.

Neither will the executive board of GW verify it, plausible deniability.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Torga_DW wrote:

 Achaylus72 wrote:
The report I was privy to explains that GW is bleeding to death on key points and they are.

Customer base: Since the reporting period from 2012 to 2014 GW has been bleeding globally 4,000 customer per month, that takes into consideration of new customers coming into the GW scene and those leaving the GW scene, result is that
GW has a negative customer growth of 4,000 customer per month, total loss of net global customers in the last 2.5 years is 144,000 customers. This is unrecoverable.

Sales of Product: Since the reporting period of 2013/14 to half year report 2014 GW is bleeding 615,500 British Pounds per month in lost sales. GW has racked up more than 15 million pounds in sales losses since the reporting period of 2013/14. This is unrecoverable.

Stock Market Value: From Oct 2013 GW shares were 820p per share, at the time of the report in Nov 2014 shares were 550p per share. The report indicated that GW shares are on a downward trend, this is reflected as of the 22nd January 2015 they have dropped to 495p per share.
GW shares in the last two years have fallen 23.66%. The report indicated that loss of the two key points above will contribute in future share prices.

Stock: The report indicates that at anyone time up to 40% of stock currently on shelves in GW stores and Trade Partners is 6 months and older. In main distribution centres it is 12 months and older. GW has tried to shed older stock by removing the contents from older boxes and repacked them
into multi unit box sets, this has failed. GW refuses to have stock clearance sales to recover lost revenue.

Well, its a rumour and i'm treating it with a grain of salt. But the things you've written don't surprise me, and certainly seem to fit what we're seeing. On the other hand, where does an ozzie get confidential Nottingham reports from? Grain of salt.

Ex-Game developer Rules/Codex/Army writer, too whom shall remain nameless.

Aww. I was hoping for some new cringe worthy quotes of senior GW figures comparable to those in the Chapter House Studios case giving further insights into the GW mindset. Not just a statement of the obvious.

Colour me disappointed.

That which is presented without evidence can be dismissed without evidence...

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
That which is presented without evidence can be dismissed without evidence...

I love Hitchen's Razor.

Seriously, learning about it has made me work to present evidence when I'm stating anything more than my opinion on something.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
That which is presented without evidence can be dismissed without evidence...

Aren't his middle 2 points verifiable from the financial reports? Though that would hardly make them privileged info. And perhaps some indys on this board could comment on the last one. The first is admittedly impossible to verify so far as I know, but doesn't exactly sound beyond the realm of possibility.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Aww. I was hoping for some new cringe worthy quotes of senior GW figures comparable to those in the Chapter House Studios case giving further insights into the GW mindset. .....

Those come in the annual reports when kirby does his preamble. Its a long wait, but always worth it.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Achaylus72 wrote:
Ex-Game developer Rules/Codex/Army writer, too whom shall remain nameless.

Has to be matt ward then.

 Torga_DW wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Aww. I was hoping for some new cringe worthy quotes of senior GW figures comparable to those in the Chapter House Studios case giving further insights into the GW mindset. .....

Those come in the annual reports when kirby does his preamble. Its a long wait, but always worth it.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Achaylus72 wrote:
Ex-Game developer Rules/Codex/Army writer, too whom shall remain nameless.

Has to be matt ward then.

Could be several people- they seem to shed a few every couple years. Although Ward is the most recent, but I'm not sure why he would be privy to corporate emails or whatever about sales numbers.

That would all line up with what folks have been seeing in the financials. This, of course, means that it could be fabricated, but honestly it wouldn't surprise me if it were true.

I don't think anyone is going to take that info, unverified, and say 'I told you so' but that doesn't mean it isn't good fodder for hypothetical discussion.

I'd like to see some 'if it were true' projections. E.g. if it were true, and those rates remain constant, what is GW looking at in a year, two years, etc.?

 Sinful Hero wrote:
Could be several people- they seem to shed a few every couple years. Although Ward is the most recent, but I'm not sure why he would be privy to corporate emails or whatever about sales numbers.

Unless they give that sort of information to ex-employees, ward was the only one there in 2014 that is now gone. Its either that or the rumour is suspect.

 Torga_DW wrote:

 Sinful Hero wrote:
Could be several people- they seem to shed a few every couple years. Although Ward is the most recent, but I'm not sure why he would be privy to corporate emails or whatever about sales numbers.

Unless they give that sort of information to ex-employees, ward was the only one there in 2014 that is now gone. Its either that or the rumour is suspect.

I was thinking the same thing. But I don't know why they would share that information with working employees either. It's neat to know, but doesn't really change anything.

Matt Ward left GW??

Yeah, BS on inventory levels. GW's Days Inventory actually fell year-on-year which is the opposite of holding onto 6 month-old, or older stock.
May 2013 - 87.58
May 2014 - 80.44

Their Inventory Turnover for the two periods was:
May 2013 - 4.17
May 2014 - 4.54
Which indicates a small uptick in how quickly units are sold, year-on-year.

The rest of the statement is entirely plausible...except the number of GW customers seems high. I still think management is engineering a controlled slide because they care more about stock price than the company brand.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Matt Ward left GW??

Yeah, some time back....wanna say in the summer?

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Matt Ward left GW??

Like 6-8 months ago.

Was really hoping for something more substantial, so that I could compare to other information...

 Azreal13 wrote:

Spoiler:

 Achaylus72 wrote:
The report I was privy to explains that GW is bleeding to death on key points and they are.

Customer base: Since the reporting period from 2012 to 2014 GW has been bleeding globally 4,000 customer per month, that takes into consideration of new customers coming into the GW scene and those leaving the GW scene, result is that
GW has a negative customer growth of 4,000 customer per month, total loss of net global customers in the last 2.5 years is 144,000 customers. This is unrecoverable.

Sales of Product: Since the reporting period of 2013/14 to half year report 2014 GW is bleeding 615,500 British Pounds per month in lost sales. GW has racked up more than 15 million pounds in sales losses since the reporting period of 2013/14. This is unrecoverable.

Stock Market Value: From Oct 2013 GW shares were 820p per share, at the time of the report in Nov 2014 shares were 550p per share. The report indicated that GW shares are on a downward trend, this is reflected as of the 22nd January 2015 they have dropped to 495p per share.
GW shares in the last two years have fallen 23.66%. The report indicated that loss of the two key points above will contribute in future share prices.

Stock: The report indicates that at anyone time up to 40% of stock currently on shelves in GW stores and Trade Partners is 6 months and older. In main distribution centres it is 12 months and older. GW has tried to shed older stock by removing the contents from older boxes and repacked them
into multi unit box sets, this has failed. GW refuses to have stock clearance sales to recover lost revenue.

Spoiler:

I'm sorry, but you've cried wolf on more than one occasion, presenting your opinion as "facts" phrased in a way to imply that you have some sort of inside knowledge.

Coupled with the fact your "insights" are nothing more than facts on public record, very simple extrapolations based on those facts and assertions which, frankly, even with all the information at your disposal, would be difficult to quantify.

So....

Nope.

...but, there is an air of truth to some of it...and a duh to some of it...and a, meh, I could see that to the rest.

The loss of customers is a bit of a large number. Not unbelievably so. That would account for roughly 20% of the customer base from 5 years ago. Would also be roughly inline with the price hike versus lack of corresponding sales generation.

Sales losses are one of those things that you can't really prove (or disprove). How do you prove that you lost a sale? How do you prove that you gained a sale? In theory, it would be tied to the above loss of customers, but in practice it is an issue where most customers have a budget (either in stone, or just due to the way they spend) and that budget is in money spent...not items bought. When the price of items goes up - fewer of them would be bought, even though they may spend roughly the same amount of money year over year. By simply not driving off a customer, it is no guarantee that they will get more money from that customer.

Stock Value...pretty much what it says on the wrapper. You can go back and look at GWs share prices since their IPO...no real news there.

Inventory Stock... Quite likely to be honest. Not sure if the same rules are in play in the UK, but there is some tax benefit to repackaging old stock in new containers for carrying over from year to year. It would explain a bit the reasoning behind the shiny new wrappers that GW has rolled out these past few years. Would also explain a good bit why they have had crippled production runs for so many of their new releases too. Paranoid about having stock pile up that they have to carry year over year.

All of that said - it also isn't anything that can not be gotten by reading the tea leaves. The big issue I have is really the source. Everyone I have talked to at GW have fairly consistently explained it to be a bit paranoid in their compartmentalization of things. People normally do not know too much regarding things outside their own realm of influence, and someone from the studio will very rarely have knowledge of what is going on on the business side of things. Some of the best information I have gotten comes from their HR department, they are well positioned to see various comings and goings...as well as the paperwork that follows them. However, I wouldn't have expected N.C. to have been able to provide me with sales data - though I might get some release information from him. Same goes for the design studio. They get marching orders, they don't know why - they just know that they are to go in that direction.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 agnosto wrote:
Yeah, BS on inventory levels. GW's Days Inventory actually fell year-on-year which is the opposite of holding onto 6 month-old, or older stock.
May 2013 - 87.58
May 2014 - 80.44

Their Inventory Turnover for the two periods was:
May 2013 - 4.17
May 2014 - 4.54
Which indicates a small uptick in how quickly units are sold, year-on-year.

Not really defending his rumor/leak - but without knowing what is being held, or what is being sold...it still falls in the plausible category. If the bulk of their transactions are newer items - that could still mean that a significant amount of stock is collecting dust. Just have to move enough of the new product fast enough (by having things like the fire sale, limited edition, get them while they last...type things being had quite frequently now).

Also would be curious to see how they are actually managing inventories. When they rolled out the new website, I though it was odd that they had multiple entries for a single kit that made multiple items... A creative accountant could use that to make the numbers flow in a bit more appealing manner...without necessarily cooking the books...

Things are only going to get tougher on GW. Model printing for example, still a few years off in quality and accessibility. Changing natures on IP rights/practicalities of enforcement, as well as outdated information presentation and delivery, are other points to worry about.

GW is going to need to adapt as such:
1. Innovate in plastic casting technology, or outsource to China. Beat everyone to the cost of your own product, and failing that, join them.

2. (and what I'm really writing in to say) Utilize a kickstarter sort of payment for 40k editions. If we want a new edition, or brand new set of rules, we have to be profitable and guaranteed for any company. Meet the desired bracket beforehand, and they release the developed product for free online. This is not how I desire it to work, being old fashioned and favouring brick and mortar over clicks myself, but it is the most adaptable change in light of information exchange realities.

Other points are more obvious, such as diversify (a mood GW is definitely not in right now), take community feedback at a fast pace, and advertize to a new generation. There was that absolutely horrendous statement a while ago, admitting how they settled only on milking their current fan base, rather than expanding, going as far as to criticize the nature and scope of advertisement.

I speak with my money, but I fear the company will still not adapt in time.


EDIT: I am apparently now a "Brainless Servitor." Yay

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

Also would be curious to see how they are actually managing inventories. When they rolled out the new website, I though it was odd that they had multiple entries for a single kit that made multiple items... A creative accountant could use that to make the numbers flow in a bit more appealing manner...without necessarily cooking the books...

Now that's an interesting thought. I always figured it was strange, and the only reason I could come up with for the practice that felt satisfying was in making it easier for new customers/gift buyers to find the thing they were looking for more easily.