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That's what MS's CEO Steve Ballmer is asking you to do in his annual shareholder letter. The imminent arrival of Windows 8 and the Surface RT, along with the new Windows phone from HTC in November, puts a finer point on that question looking toward the holidays. Zooming in on the Surface, there are obviously big implications for MS's partners as well as its competitors. Ballmer assures us MS is following a nuanced path:

Ballmer wrote:We will continue to work with a vast ecosystem of partners to deliver a broad spectrum of Windows PCs, tablets and phones. We do this because our customers want great choices and we believe there is no way one size suits over 1.3 billion Windows users around the world. There will be times when we build specific devices for specific purposes, as we have chosen to do with Xbox and the recently announced Microsoft Surface. In all our work with partners and on our own devices, we will focus relentlessly on delivering delightful, seamless experiences across hardware, software and services. This means as we, with our partners, develop new Windows devices we'll build in services people want.

The Xbox serves as a double-edged analogy. On one hand, its overwhelming success raises serious questions about the relevance of both Sony and Nintendo consoles. I think that's exactly what MS hopes to do with the Surface: rather than an iPad killer, Surface is the launch platform for an Android killer. On the other hand, Xbox isn't exactly a model of working "with a vast ecosystem of partners." Indeed, the Xbox is in some ways to console gaming what the iPhone is to the mobile market, creating a market with less options or rather more substantially similar ones. MS's shift toward devices looks promising for folks who like both the freedom of Android and the coherence of the Apple product line. But delivering the best of both worlds is obviously a tall order, especially against lingering memories of Vista and the last Windows phone.

Whether or not MS comes off as way ahead of the curve or way behind it may boil down to how the Surface is received later this month. With only fifteen days to release, there is still no official price tag but plenty of wild speculation. In mid-August, there were shocking rumors that the Surface RT might release at $200. At that price, MS would certainly be selling well below its costs but consumers looking for a tablet would be hard-pressed not to get on board. (Once more, the shadow of the Xbox looms.) Unfortunately, the success of the product at that price point might well devastate MS's erstwhile hardware partners. Today, a BOM-based price estimate is circulating with a chilling range of between $400 - 500. Market-par pricing is hardly "competitive" and it's certainly not exciting, something one might hope MS would have learned from the contrasting examples of Asus's Transformers and its Nexus 7. The question is, has MS created the right atmosphere to launch a ≈$350 device with an OS almost no one has used?

Or, put it another way, do you believe in Microsoft?

Microsoft is lagging behind in the tablet market that is dominated by Apple and Android.

I can see them selling their tablet in the $200 range in order to compete in the Market... in fact, if they want to be players in the tablet market, they'd almost have to do that.

I sort of agree. The $200 price point is just ... well, it's basically coercive. I will not turn down a 10" tablet sold for $200. And it's not just a matter of being more affordable; that price makes me want the product even more. I'm really curious about whether Microsoft can do something about Apple's domination over the way consumers think of tablets; Android's now-longstanding failure to do that just makes me more curious. But I really am not confident that MS has the solution in a deliverable form, considering their inability to make any headway in the mobile market with Windows Phone 7. That was a good device, just as the Surface seems to be looking at its specs, but (whatever your feelings about Metro) the substance didn't seem to be there. So it's not like there's no negative precedent for the Surface product line to follow. But at $200, I'll take the risk without looking back.

I guess to sum in up, I want to believe in Microsoft. I'm just not sure if that's because I have good reasons to or if I'm just sick to death of Apple's arrogance and Android's lackluster brand coherence.

Ayah, at $200 I would as well, if I didn't have to pay any monthly fees and could just WiFI it.

Do I believe in Microsoft?

Yes, I have faith that they exist.
I am also pretty sure their software is underperforming and overpriced, enough to wholeheartedly recommend the Tiny XP/Vista or XP/Vista Lite clones over the original.

 Frazzled wrote:
Ayah, at $200 I would as well, if I didn't have to pay any monthly fees and could just WiFI it.

Yeah, you see that, get kind of excited: maybe you never even wanted a tablet, I mean who even needs one, but now, well it's exciting ... and then you see an analyst estimating the price at twice as much and suddenly there's a bucket of cold water being poured over your lap.

For most people shopping for a tablet, the $400 point is not make or break. But the OS definitely is, even to otherwise uninformed consumers. Maybe a given shopper has never heard of iOS but they'll still insist on buying an iPad because they feel its a "safer" purchase. Right now, Windows RT is still a big question mark for almost everyone. So that's a super ambiguous position to be in as a consumer: "this costs as much as the iPad but everyone I know says the iPad is great and no one knows anything about this."

At the $200 point, however, you're no longer talking to people actively shopping for tablets. You're basically talking to all of middle-middle class America and up.

For me anyway. At $200 with no other costs, it reaches "cheaper than cellphone" stage.

And last week, Bernstein Research (who famously declared this past summer that people simply don't want Windows Phones) estimated the Surface RT coming in at $600. I just can't see that. It'd be suicide.

And yet Berstein has this to say about the Surface's impact on Microsoft:

The integration of the operating system and hardware confirm our belief that Windows is not only not going to disappear, but rather become the #2 tablet operating system and # 1 operating system for converged devices (in contrast to the bear case that Windows revenue will go off-a-cliff).

That's from July.

 Manchu wrote:
Bernstein Research

You can't trust a bunch of bears with technical and business predictions.

Er, I believe you're thinking of Berenstain Research.

Meanwhile, I do love Eric Schmidt's faux-sphinx prediction that the Surface "could be a big deal ... if it works." If it works, Mr. Schmidt, Android will become the Linux of the device world.

No, I do not. I abhor Windows 8. If I wanted a tablet OS, I'd get a tablet.

I have a Mac, and an iPhone. I desperately wish I had a Windows laptop and an android phone.

If this thing is really 200-250 dollars, I'll get one. Until then, the iPad is really the only tablet worth anything.

And no, the Kindle/Nook/E-Readers don't count.

That's a bit overly dismissive. The Nexus 7 is a very strong product.

 Frazzled wrote:
For me anyway. At $200 with no other costs, it reaches "cheaper than cellphone" stage.

I'd be in at that price and WiFi.

In fact, I'd put off buying the Horus Heresy book another month to buy the tablet at that price.

 Manchu wrote:
That's a bit overly dismissive. The Nexus 7 is a very strong product.

I was torn between the new Kindle Fire HD vs the Nexus 7...

Now, I'm going to wait to see MS's tablet...


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 kronk wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
For me anyway. At $200 with no other costs, it reaches "cheaper than cellphone" stage.

I'd be in at that price and WiFi.

Lets hope so... I think this is the only way the MS can gain relevences with the tablet/OS market.

Keep in mind that Tablet hardware and OS/Apps are the "Next Big Thing" in terms of developments.

 Chowderhead wrote:
I have a Mac, and an iPhone. I desperately wish I had a Windows laptop and an android phone.

If this thing is really 200-250 dollars, I'll get one. Until then, the iPad is really the only tablet worth anything.

And no, the Kindle/Nook/E-Readers don't count.

My ASUS Iconia is pretty awesome for the price. It's a 10" tablet I got for 200. The iPad really is overrated. The only thing it can do that mine can't is look at GW Codexes. Hell, there's actually a few things I think mine can do that the iPad can't.

 whembly wrote:
I was torn between the new Kindle Fire HD vs the Nexus 7...

That shouldn't be a competition, the Nexus 7 is a better product even if it is a bit harder to get.

 Manchu wrote:
That's a bit overly dismissive. The Nexus 7 is a very strong product.

Agreed. However, the iPad is a market juggernaut.

There's no real reason to have a tablet anyway. The ipod sold because it was OMG APPLE, not because it was useful.

I thought that for a long time. I looked at my desktop and then at my laptop and then at my smart phone, and I was like: where does this fit? But laptops are rapidly becoming a thing of the past as a consumer electronic device. For something I didn't think had a use, the tablet has kind of massacred the laptop market.

I really love my tablet. I got an HTC Flyer (8 1/2 inch I believe) wifi for $150 (caught a /very/ nice sale) and it rocks, does everything I need or want it to do when I'm running around instead of hauling my laptop, which is really my "home" computer because it's fairly large. The only way my HTC could be improved is with a USB 2.0 plug in so I could manage photos on my camera without having my laptop around. That however is a problem that can be solved just as easily by getting a bigger memory card for my camera.

So while I do like microsoft products, I won't be leaving my HTC any time soon, and if I do I'll probably be going to the darkside with a smart phone and a data plan.

 Manchu wrote:
I thought that for a long time. I looked at my desktop and then at my laptop and then at my smart phone, and I was like: where does this fit? But laptops are rapidly becoming a thing of the past as a consumer electronic device. For something I didn't think had a use, the tablet has kind of massacred the laptop market.

Laptops still have a place. You can't do real work on an IFad, where you an with a laptop.

 Testify wrote:
There's no real reason to have a tablet anyway. The ipod sold because it was OMG APPLE, not because it was useful.

My tablet is basically a high-powered PDF reader for gaming, though there are some handy work related utilities on there also (wifi analyzer and even a VNC application). I had no delusions about doing anything non-recreational on it though.

As I've said before. Computers are for generating content. Tablets are for consuming it.

I am really looking forward to HTC's Windows Phone 8X.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Frazzled wrote:
Laptops still have a place. You can't do real work on an IFad, where you an with a laptop.

Windows 8 aims to change that.

 Frazzled wrote:

 Manchu wrote:
I thought that for a long time. I looked at my desktop and then at my laptop and then at my smart phone, and I was like: where does this fit? But laptops are rapidly becoming a thing of the past as a consumer electronic device. For something I didn't think had a use, the tablet has kind of massacred the laptop market.

Laptops still have a place. You can't do real work on an IFad, where you an with a laptop.

Actually, I saw a failblog picture of an Amazon item. It was literally a leather bound, iPad cover, with the interior "lining" housing a keyboard... yep, you can now turn a tablet into a laptop!! YAAAAAY


As for the OP. I think that MS should really just stick with what it does "best" and that is the Windows OS/ Office software systems. I know that the Xbox has sold a great gak load, but when I look at the cross-platform games (ie, sports, and the big releases), the Xbox is lagging behind in many ways compared to some other systems. Not to mention, their customer support is absolute crap. Let's just say that their system is full of holes, and what one person can find easily, apparently doesn't exist for another.


About the only MS specific gadget that I like, is their Zune. It really is a decent alternative to the Apple stuff, and pretty much just as easy to use as the shiny one.

Wait, how is Xbox lagging behind on "the big releases"?

 Manchu wrote:
Wait, how is Xbox lagging behind on "the big releases"?

Yeah... I was confused on that...

Don't they get the Call of Duty games a week earlier?

Halo?

Those are big names.

In a market of sick men, Xbox is hale and fit.

If it's $200 without any monthly fees or contractual obligations, then I'll take two.

 Manchu wrote:
In a market of sick men, Xbox is hale and fit.

While i agree that the Xbox often has better deals in regards to advanced releases etc. and may be a better purchase as a pure gaming console. The fact that a PS3 can play blu rays, and at least in nz, PS3s are still cheaper than blu ray players, makes the PS3 still completely relevant.