Top10 Ranking by a US store

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**Kroothawk**

This was posted on 28th May by Gary Ray of Black Diamond Games, a gaming store in California. While it is only one store, it gives an interesting insight in sales:
http://blackdiamondgames.blogspot.de/2013/05/top-10-games-2013.html

Top 10 Games (2013)

Around this time each year, I like to post our top games. For most people, they have their game and they happily, blissfully, go on playing it. Good for them. For others, we want to know the trends, where things are headed, possibly as a crystal ball to see where we're going. I use this to spin a narrative about my store, justifying decisions and verifying gut instincts.

I think there are two game trades right now. There is the traditional model with established publishers, distributors and retailers and then there is the indie scene, primarily via Kickstarter. The money is certainly in the traditional market, by far. All of Kickstarter derived "sales" to date are a rounding error on a year of the traditional game trade, although to believe there's a firewall between them is to miss the point.

That said, the traditional game trade is coasting. Game stores are doing great, amazing, fabulous, with CCGs, but that's about it. Board games haven't seen another innovation like deck building and even that category has become rather tired and derivative. Our board game sales are driven by Tabletop, which is more about marketing than innovation. The choice of games for that program seems arbitrary, although there is some reason related to their format. RPGs (AKA Pathfinder and "other") haven't seen hits in quite some time and as I've mentioned, those "second wave," mostly 90's RPGs have lost in-store steam, while getting in on the "third wave" indie games is maddeningly difficult. It's possible, we just haven't cracked it.

So it's ho hum in the game trade, while Kickstarter and other direct projects, seem to have all the energy, but without much (financial) spill over everyone was hoping for. There are no crowd funded games on our top list (although one is close, and I'll get to that). So here's the list:

Jumping onto the list and a game to watch is Cardfight Vanguard. I would describe this Japanese CCG as played by Yu-Gi-Oh graduates who want a more nuanced experience. There are multiple deck types to build and each release focuses on a type, rather than being a universal blind purchase for everyone. If you were thinking Yu-Gi-Oh players might graduate to Magic you would be mistaken. It's Cardfight Vanguard.

Hordes joins the list with Warmachine, and together they would be at the number four spot. I would like to make some sort of claim that Warhammer Fantasy players have gone this route, but most of our Hordes players have chosen the game as their second or third army after Warmachine. You know that old Games Workshop strategy of having a primary, secondary and break game? This is the Privateer Press secondary, it seems.

Warhammer Fantasy has dropped off the chart and is generally perceived as a failed edition by our fans. The upconing stock list from GW doesn't require much breadth or depth of this game from a partner store like ours, and I'm thankful for that. Sales have fallen off the chart and interest in events is lacking. Some will blame us for lack of support, but you need cheerful volunteers for an event like this and there's not much cheer. Step up if you want to run it. The latest High Elf release was our worst ever, but maybe you weren't aware it even happened.

Dungeons & Dragons is likewise down in the dumps, with special edition sales keeping it on the radar. We still sell this game, including to new players, but for us the game is no longer "top tier." D&D Next is due next Summer and it will bring the game back for sure, although it's no Pathfinder killer, at least from what I'm reading. I really hope it does well, kind of like how you hope your ex-girlfriend finds happiness, with someone, hopefully, over there somewhere.

What else? Malifaux was on the top ten two years ago and we plan to bring back second edition. Cards Against Humanity, a Kickstarter derived project that uses Amazon as their wholesaler, is number eleven, a strange and uncomfortable blog post in itself. Rio Grande is likely to be replaced by Z-Man as popular board game licenses transition to that company. I thought it would have happened already.

Caveats: Yes, data for only one store and across town it could be completely different. Top games and top companies are not the same. For example, "Fantasy Flight" is only FFG board games, with LCGs and RPGs pulled out in other categories. FFG is probably our number three company. Also, because sales are year-to-date, they ignore seasonal increases, mostly the holiday board game sales bump (which is a skewed mess anyway).

Here a slightly broader statistic from autumn last year: http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/25378.html

**Kilkrazy**

The core message there is that CCGs continue to be big sellers because players have to keep buying cards to keep playing.

Practically any other kind of game you buy it once and play it as much as you like before buying a different one.

Interesting though that Rio Grande is in the ranking. I've never played but it sounds quite fun. A very pick up and play concept, good for families and non-game-players.

Other interesting thing is that Kickstarter has failed to revitalise sales in traditional shops. That is because everyone who is really interested in the new game buys it through the Kickstarter, so 90% of the market is saturated straight away. The other 10% may be barely viable commercially.

I am disappointed to hear that deck building is played out as a new rule mechanism. It was only invented in 2008 in Dominion. The problem may be that so many rather derivative versions have been launched since. However, I am not as big a fan of Eurogames as perhaps I should be, so it does not concern me much as a player.

**Taarnak**

Kilkrazy wrote:

Other interesting thing is that Kickstarter has failed to revitalise sales in traditional shops. That is because everyone who is really interested in the new game buys it through the Kickstarter, so 90% of the market is saturated straight away. The other 10% may be barely viable commercially.

This is complete conjecture, even with the above store's post.

It may or may not be true, but right now there is absolutely not enough evidence available to make that statement.

~Eric

**Sigvatr**

It's really sad to see WHFB going down. I really like the models and it's so much different from 40k with its big sized battles. It's understandable given the rules, but with restrctions, I still think it's an awesome ruleset to have a lot of fun with.

I am REALLY happy to see Pathfinder being so successful. D&D 4th was a slap in the face for D&D fans and Pathfinder jumped in to save the day...with great success. Wish that could happen with WHFB too. WHFB with a comp ruleset...WotC, where art thou?

**pretre**

Sigvatr wrote:
D&D 4th was a slap in the face for D&D fans

I lol'd.

**Kilkrazy**

Taarnak wrote:
Kilkrazy wrote:

Other interesting thing is that Kickstarter has failed to revitalise sales in traditional shops. That is because everyone who is really interested in the new game buys it through the Kickstarter, so 90% of the market is saturated straight away. The other 10% may be barely viable commercially.

This is complete conjecture, even with the above store's post.

It may or may not be true, but right now there is absolutely not enough evidence available to make that statement.

~Eric

There is the evidence that the shop presents and that I have gained from selling (or rather, failing to sell) my own Kickstarter products.

I do think you should give some credence to an experienced retail outlet like the shop in the first post. They aren't complete idiots about selling stuff.

**Uriels_Flame**

As he said, may be regional flavor.

Fantasy is alive here and I enjoy the rule set.

40k is borrowing heavily from the current edition so does that mean it's going to fall off the list next year?

**sourclams**

Admittedly I don't pay close attention to this, but this is the first time I've seen Warmachine/Hordes oust Warhammer 40k, as they did this year on a combined sales basis (which is appropriate, since the games co-exist in the same system and are interchangeable and compatible).

**Sigvatr**

pretre wrote:
Sigvatr wrote:
D&D 4th was a slap in the face for D&D fans

I lol'd.

Iirc, there was a considerable uproar among the community due to a lot of simplying and mainstreaming the rules similar to what WHFB did with 8th. Pathfinder still maintains the 3.5 ruleset people prefer.

**pretre**

Sigvatr wrote:
pretre wrote:
Sigvatr wrote:
D&D 4th was a slap in the face for D&D fans

I lol'd.

Iirc, there was a considerable uproar among the community due to a lot of simplying and mainstreaming the rules similar to what WHFB did with 8th. Pathfinder still maintains the 3.5 ruleset people prefer.

Yes, I lol'd because you jumped right into the Edition Wars unbidden. I'm not going to get into that, however.

**Azreal13**

Uriels_Flame wrote:
As he said, may be regional flavor.

Fantasy is alive here and I enjoy the rule set.

40k is borrowing heavily from the current edition so does that mean it's going to fall off the list next year?

I'm not familiar with WHFB in its current incarnation, but 6th 40K pinches a lot from 2nd 40K, so guess the latest Fantasy does too.

**Sigvatr**

pretre wrote:
Sigvatr wrote:
pretre wrote:
Sigvatr wrote:
D&D 4th was a slap in the face for D&D fans

I lol'd.

Iirc, there was a considerable uproar among the community due to a lot of simplying and mainstreaming the rules similar to what WHFB did with 8th. Pathfinder still maintains the 3.5 ruleset people prefer.

Yes, I lol'd because you jumped right into the Edition Wars unbidden. I'm not going to get into that, however.

Oh, okay, misunderstood ya then

**Bat Manuel**

I've always said that these stores run on "Magic."

**Taarnak**

Kilkrazy wrote:
Taarnak wrote:
Kilkrazy wrote:

Other interesting thing is that Kickstarter has failed to revitalise sales in traditional shops. That is because everyone who is really interested in the new game buys it through the Kickstarter, so 90% of the market is saturated straight away. The other 10% may be barely viable commercially.

This is complete conjecture, even with the above store's post.

It may or may not be true, but right now there is absolutely not enough evidence available to make that statement.

~Eric

There is the evidence that the shop presents and that I have gained from selling (or rather, failing to sell) my own Kickstarter products.

I do think you should give some credence to an experienced retail outlet like the shop in the first post. They aren't complete idiots about selling stuff.

No, I don't think they are idiots; nor are you.

But that anecdotal evidence is at least mitigated by the same type of evidence that Mantic's Dreadball and Dreamforge's Leviathans both sell extremely well in stores. Dreadball especially.

You just presented your initial statement as fact and I don't want anyone to take it as such. There is simply not enough hard data to support it right now.

~Eric

**Spartan089**

Not sure which is funnier, Fantasy going the way of the dinosaurs or Cards Against Humanity becoming an up and coming popular game.

**Uriels_Flame**

Bat Manuel wrote:
I've always said that these stores run on "Magic."

This is so true, at least my local store.

I can't tell you how much this stuff flies off the shelves still after what - 25yrs?

Talking with the store owner, Friday Night Magic runs the place. It's a wider audience with the most expendable income and clearly out performs the other games by a wide margin.

I'd be interested to see how far ahead Magic/Yugi is ahead of all the others?

**hotsauceman1**

Spartan089 wrote:
Not sure which is funnier, Fantasy going the way of the dinosaurs or Cards Against Humanity becoming an up and coming popular game.

He has an interesting post on that game.
http://blackdiamondgames.blogspot.de/2013/05/the-invisible-hand.html

**silent25**

I think the most interesting blog entry this store has is in regards to Reaper:
http://blackdiamondgames.blogspot.de/2013/05/our-reaper-relationship.html

It sounds like the Kickstarter success may have been at the expense of their grassroots support. Trading a short term surge in revenue for a long term decline in general sales. Worst, I just remember the comment a person at the Reapercon Kickstater panel mentioned. When the Reaper rep on the panel was asked if they made money on the KS, their response was "We think so".

Reaper is a great company and I don't want to see them disappear.

The store owner also commented that he feels CCGs are in a bubble right now and one bad CCG could ruin everything.
http://blackdiamondgames.blogspot.de/2013/04/invasive-species.html

The posts sound like things might be more of a house of cards than a healthy industry despite the current strong growth.

**Kilkrazy**

Taarnak wrote:
Kilkrazy wrote:
Taarnak wrote:
Kilkrazy wrote:

Other interesting thing is that Kickstarter has failed to revitalise sales in traditional shops. That is because everyone who is really interested in the new game buys it through the Kickstarter, so 90% of the market is saturated straight away. The other 10% may be barely viable commercially.

This is complete conjecture, even with the above store's post.

It may or may not be true, but right now there is absolutely not enough evidence available to make that statement.

~Eric

There is the evidence that the shop presents and that I have gained from selling (or rather, failing to sell) my own Kickstarter products.

I do think you should give some credence to an experienced retail outlet like the shop in the first post. They aren't complete idiots about selling stuff.

No, I don't think they are idiots; nor are you.

But that anecdotal evidence is at least mitigated by the same type of evidence that Mantic's Dreadball and Dreamforge's Leviathans both sell extremely well in stores. Dreadball especially.

You just presented your initial statement as fact and I don't want anyone to take it as such. There is simply not enough hard data to support it right now.

~Eric

Sales information collected by a retail store is hard data, not anecdotal.

**warboss**

Sigvatr wrote:
It's really sad to see WHFB going down. I really like the models and it's so much different from 40k with its big sized battles. It's understandable given the rules, but with restrctions, I still think it's an awesome ruleset to have a lot of fun with.

It's too bad they made 40k alot more like fantasy.. random charges, heroes challenging each other in combat, etc... this 40k edition is overall a "pass" for me. I still bring an army with me to the game store as a backup plan but I don't actually plan/try to play it.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Kilkrazy wrote:
Taarnak wrote:
Kilkrazy wrote:

Other interesting thing is that Kickstarter has failed to revitalise sales in traditional shops. That is because everyone who is really interested in the new game buys it through the Kickstarter, so 90% of the market is saturated straight away. The other 10% may be barely viable commercially.

This is complete conjecture, even with the above store's post.

It may or may not be true, but right now there is absolutely not enough evidence available to make that statement.

~Eric

There is the evidence that the shop presents and that I have gained from selling (or rather, failing to sell) my own Kickstarter products.

I do think you should give some credence to an experienced retail outlet like the shop in the first post. They aren't complete idiots about selling stuff.

The same is true according to the owner at my FLGS. They just don't sell much kickstarted stuff after giving it the old college try and generally don't plan on trying much except for reaper bones (for which they're willing to give it another shot). It's anecdotal evidence for sure but my local experience (or technically my local store's) jives with the above.

**Kroothawk**

Kilkrazy wrote:
Interesting though that Rio Grande is in the ranking. I've never played but it sounds quite fun. A very pick up and play concept, good for families and non-game-players.
(...)
I am disappointed to hear that deck building is played out as a new rule mechanism. It was only invented in 2008 in Dominion.

I am confused what you mean by these two statements.

1.) Rio Grande is a major board game distributor http://riograndegames.com/ , who a.o. converts German board games for the US market. It is not a single game, just the second entry after FFG that provides board games. And FFG also includes RPGs and other stuff.

2.) Deck building was invented 2008? Are you serious? Heck, even Whist and Bridge are non-collectable deck building games. Not to speak of the rich card game scene since then.

**Kilkrazy**

Rio Grande is the name of a Eurogame.

http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/60872/rio-grande

Hence my surprise that it should be a major selling item. It makes more sense to be high in the ranking if he means the entire catalogue of Rio Grande.

"Deck building" in the sense it is used by modern game-players refers to a mechanism by which you build up a hand of cards (the deck) during the course of the game, rather than before the start. The key point is that your selection of cards depends on their limited and varying availability from draw piles. Unlike in a game like MTG in which you make a preferred deck before the game.

This concept is considered to have been established in Dominion, and has been copied or modified in various other games.

**Taarnak**

Kilkrazy wrote:

Tasrnak wrote:
No, I don't think they are idiots; nor are you.

But that anecdotal evidence is at least mitigated by the same type of evidence that Mantic's Dreadball and Dreamforge's Leviathans both sell extremely well in stores. Dreadball especially.

You just presented your initial statement as fact and I don't want anyone to take it as such. There is simply not enough hard data to support it right now.

~Eric

Sales information collected by a retail store is hard data, not anecdotal.

Your information is anecdotal. There is no sales information presented for Kickstarted projects in that post, so the store's information is anecdotal. Even if the store presented actual data, a sample size of 1 is nowhere near enough to make a conclusion.

You are arguing semantics to sidestep the point. Your initial statement was not fact, but opinion presented as such. That was the entire issue. I have nothing at all against you, so please don't take this personally.

~Eric

**WarOne**

Would collecting the sales data of the hobby departments or companies and how much each made for their respective products be a better barometer for hard data?

Such as it is, this data is nonannectdotal for this one particular location. As a whole they may be able to extrapolate regional trends.

**Taarnak**

WarOne wrote:Would collecting the sales data of the hobby departments or companies and how much each made for their respective products be a better barometer for hard data?

If the sample size was large enough, then that is in fact the only way to call it hard data.

WarOne wrote:
Such as it is, this data is nonannectdotal for this one particular location. As a whole they may be able to extrapolate regional trends.

No, it's anecdotal. There are no numbers of any kind listed for Kickstarted projects. Even then, a set of 1 is not enough to form any kind of factual conclusions.

Top 10 Games (2013)
So it's ho hum in the game trade, while Kickstarter and other direct projects, seem to have all the energy, but without much (financial) spill over everyone was hoping for. There are no crowd funded games on our top list (although one is close, and I'll get to that).

No numbers. Just a non-specific statement.

~Eric

**Kroothawk**

Kilkrazy wrote:
"Deck building" in the sense it is used by modern game-players refers to a mechanism by which you build up a hand of cards (the deck) during the course of the game, rather than before the start.

You mean like Poker? I am quite certain that Dominion didn't invent anything, it is just a popular mix of existing mechanisms, kind of a Magic the Gathering light for families.

**Kilkrazy**

No, because in Poker the cards are not played out to influence the course of the game and thus the new cards you might want to or be able to add to your hand.

**Noir**

Kilkrazy wrote:
No, because in Poker the cards are not played out to influence the course of the game and thus the new cards you might want to or be able to add to your hand.

So it based of cards game like Gin. Can't really call it new mechanisms.

**Eilif**

Thanks for posting this. I find it interesting to get an occasional view from the retailers side of things.

I notice that these guys and others seem to be cutting back on reaper. I wonder if retailers will soon be expanding or re-stocking their reaper section, but with bones instead of metal miniatures.

**WarOne**

Taarnak wrote:

WarOne wrote:
Such as it is, this data is nonannectdotal for this one particular location. As a whole they may be able to extrapolate regional trends.

No, it's anecdotal. There are no numbers of any kind listed for Kickstarted projects. Even then, a set of 1 is not enough to form any kind of factual conclusions.
~Eric

I believe that his conclusions have factual data behind them and are not anecdotal. Of course I used the qualifier believe so that does mean I trust the source it comes from.