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@sleg I don't think I've misquoted you, you have been hard to follow what you've been saying.

feel free to post your list and tell us how it goes.

And for the probabilities, if you have 2d6 there are 36 outcomes.
http://www.stormtiger.org/bob/gaming/rpg_math/bell_curve/2d6_all_combinations.cgh

UncleMeat wrote:

This is not correct. Roll probabilities on 2D6 can be found here: http://www.thedarkfortress.co.uk/tech_reports/2_dice_rolls.htm. There are 36 possible outcomes from rolling 2D6, each with equal probability. Of these, 21 of them have value 7 or less. This means that the probability of rolling a 7 or less on 2D6 is 21/36, which reduces to 7/12. I can't even work backwards from your value to figure out what you might have done to compute it. How did you get 21 in the denominator?

There are not - the chance of roll 2,3,11,12 are exactly the same. You are rolling 2 dice - correct not a d12. Your probably doesn't change, each dice has a 1 in 6 chance for any number on it. with 2 dice it is 1 in 6 with each not combined. Any doubles are also the exact same probability. You can't change that. You do not have a 7/12 chance nor do you have a 21/36. you can never have a number divisable by 12 because you can not roll a 1 with 2 dice. If you said you had a 6/11 chance or 12/22 or 18/33 I could see your logic, but it still would be wrong. Because there are only 21 possible outcomes, not 36. for example rolling a 1 and 2 = 3, it's the same as rolling a 2 and 1, it's not another possible outcome - it is the same. Get your probability right, and not look at some site telling you something that is wrong.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
21 possible outcomes
1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4,4 4,5 4,6
5,5 5,6
6,6


Automatically Appended Next Post:
You have the exact same probability to roll any of the 21 possible outcomes, you do not have a greater probability of rolling a 3, than you have rolling a 2, 11, or 12.
you have the same probability of rolling a 4, a 5, a 9, or a 10 (2 chances each)
just like you have the same with 6,7, and 8 (3 chances each).

If you tossed the dice separately first die rolls a 4, you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 1, and vise versa - because the chances of getting a 4 and a 1 are the same as getting double 6's. the difference is if you get a 3 and a 2 your chances are doubled for getting a 5. If you need to roll a 7 or less, there are 12 possible outcomes out of 21.

D1, D2

1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4, 1,5 1,6
2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4, 2,5 2,6
3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4, 3,5 3,6
4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4, 4,5 4,6
5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4, 5,5 5,6
6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4, 6,5 6,6

That's 36 possible outcomes for rolling 2D6.

This thread seriously needs to be buried.

 Sleg wrote:
for example rolling a 1 and 2 = 3, it's the same as rolling a 2 and 1, it's not another possible outcome - it is the same. Get your probability right, and not look at some site telling you something that is wrong.

Yes, it very much is a different outcome. Rolling 1,2 is not the same outcome as rolling 2,1 even if the sum is the same. This is easily verifiable: Flip two coins. You have three different outcomes:

[heads, heads]
[heads + tails]
[tails, tails]

You are saying that [heads, heads], [heads + tails] and [tails, tails] each have the same probability. But there are two different ways to get [heads + tails], namely [heads, tails] and [tails, heads] - exactly like rolling [1,2] and [2,1]. What you will find is that the probability distribution will be 25% - 50% - 25%. It doesn't matter that it's "the same outcome", what matters is that there are two ways to get that outcome and thus the chance of that happens doubles. In the same way, you have twice the chance of rolling a 3 on 2d6 than you do of rolling a 2.

 Sleg wrote:
If you tossed the dice separately first die rolls a 4, you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 1, and vise versa - because the chances of getting a 4 and a 1 are the same as getting double 6's.

That's technically correct - the odds of rolling a 4 followed by a 1 is exactly the same as rolling 6,6. The difference is that in the game you don't care if you roll a 4 followed by 1, or 1 followed by 4. So you have twice the odds of rolling the combination [4,1] than you do rolling [6,6] - and similarly you have twice the odds of rolling [2,3], for a total of four times the odds of rolling 5 over 12.

Here's another reference site - this one is the Georgia State University. They probably know what they are talking about. http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/math/dice.html

If that's what you believe, I'm not going to stop any of you from your belief. But I'm very well versed in statistics of rolling dice and will stand firm on my belief of throwing 2 dice simultaneously and their result. because no matter how you break it down, you still can't roll a 1 with 2 dice with 6 sides. so if you need to roll a 7 or less, you will never roll a 1. it can't be 7/12, even if the State University of Georgia says it, still doesn't make it true.

We are getting off the subject. which is why I was trying to stear clear of "showing my math", and I'm sorry for feeding the trolls.

Back to Green Tide and using terrain, so anyone else used terrain or know someone that uses it.

How in the heck did a thread get orks and math combined together? These things just don't go together at all!!!!

 Sleg wrote:
If that's what you believe, I'm not going to stop any of you from your belief. But I'm very well versed in statistics of rolling dice and will stand firm on my belief of throwing 2 dice simultaneously and their result. because no matter how you break it down, you still can't roll a 1 with 2 dice with 6 sides. so if you need to roll a 7 or less, you will never roll a 1. it can't be 7/12, even if the State University of Georgia says it, still doesn't make it true.

Go do some more research - that's not the only place that says so.
You're. Wrong. You're not well versed in dice statistics. You don't understand reducing fractions.

We are getting off the subject. which is why I was trying to stear clear of "showing my math", and I'm sorry for feeding the trolls.

We're trolling? Who said they had some amazing formula that took into account impossible factors and came up with a value of -what was it, 72? - boys to a KFF? And refuses to show said formula?

Back to Green Tide and using terrain, so anyone else used terrain or know someone that uses it.

So amusing. And I'm the one trolling.

Your understanding of probability is factually wrong. The probability if a given number on a d6 is 1/6. Now you need the probability of 2 numbers on 2 different d6. Please show the math that goes from 1/6 to 1/21. There is decades of math showing how to figure the odds of 2 independent events.

"To admit you were wrong is to declare you are wiser now than before."

 Sleg wrote:
How about I say it's worth nothing to you, since you have said nothing that would encourage me to show my work.

Hurray for more personal attacks
Do you want me to put your exact quotes next to those arguments? I actually went through every single one of your posts to write that post and just repeated what you said. They even are in thread order, in case you want to double-check.

You have only shown how petty you are by misquoting me and either removing past statements or changing them to sway the argument towards you.

Look, repeating a blatant lie isn't going to make it either true, nor does it make you look more credible. The forum software dakkadakka is utilizing puts the exact time and date underneath any post you edit if someone else has already read it. As none of my posts have an editing time stamp dating after your next response, you're making yourself look like an idiot by continuing to claim this. If you still doubt this, you can ask a mod to check the change logs of this thread.

In the end it doesn't matter, this is about using Terrain for a Green Tide Army, if you have a KFF - I'm so very happy for you. If you don't have problems moving through terrain, I'm jumping for joy at the fact that you are such a winner. If this was something that you have solved by just being a better player, I don't know how that helps. But there are those of us who do have this problem terrain. There are those like me who only wished we didn't use terrain so I can move my force unimpeded down the field and engage with my opponent. So please stop trolling and join the discussion or ignore it like you stated you were going to do before.

I will continue "trolling" you as long as you keep advertising a tactic which (according to you yourself) regularly gets you tabled, while backing it up with nothing but magic numbers, unlikely opponent gameplay and misunderstood game rules.

So yes, winning one game would never qualify this as the perfect tactic for a Green Tide, but it made me very aware of how much cover I was giving up for a HQ that as long as they have LOS, they will wreak that unit a Big Mek is in.

So, what's the difference whether they shoot the unit of the big mek instead of any other boyz? You still lose the same amount of models per turn. If anything, you'll have the boyz unit in front getting into combat faster, because the fire is concentrated elsewhere. The big mek also makes the unit ld 8, and if you're that concerned about them breaking, spend your last 5 points of a boss pole for a big mek, making it nigh impossible for him to run off the board.

Which is why I ask if anyone has done this, moving the Ork Boyz as a Wave - I was actually looking for feedback, not looking to get attacked because I presented something that is obviously crazy.

If you go back an read the thread, you'll see that we gave you feedback (take lootaz to handle threats at range, bring KFF to have more cover, bring dakkajets to handle fliers), and then you started to attack people by calling them crazy, liers, cheaters and whatnot. Actually, you attacked anyone who didn't just flat-out agree with you. Feedback includes people not just agreeing with you. If you just want people to agree with you, don't post on forums.

You have the exact same probability to roll any of the 21 possible outcomes, you do not have a greater probability of rolling a 3, than you have rolling a 2, 11, or 12.

I just laughed myself to tears about this. You really shouldn't ever go near Las Vegas unless you plan on going bankrupt.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Green is Best! wrote:
How in the heck did a thread get orks and math combined together? These things just don't go together at all!!!!

Ha, I can prove this wrong:

moar boyz + moar shootaz = moar dakka

 Sleg wrote:

You have the exact same probability to roll any of the 21 possible outcomes, you do not have a greater probability of rolling a 3, than you have rolling a 2, 11, or 12.
you have the same probability of rolling a 4, a 5, a 9, or a 10 (2 chances each)
just like you have the same with 6,7, and 8 (3 chances each).

Yes, you are technically correct. You have the same change of rolling a 3 as you do a 12. However, this is only true if you count rolling a 2,1 and 1,2 as different.

How about this. Let's play a game:

We can roll 2 dice. I win if I roll any combination of 6,7, or 8. You win if you get 2,3,4,5,9,10,11, or 12. Ten bucks a roll for one hundred rolls. Interested?

Lol i laughed a lot by going through this thread

Just Saying Jidman---> Walking How to play Ork s Guide... Whenever i had trouble... saw one of his suggestions,.. next game...frack.. dat git wuz right!

Why are people even showing doubt about the KFF? Its an absolute given that thing rocks... When ever do Orks get to make a reguar armour save? Oh right ap- weapons since everything else negates their armour... So if i get to make a 5+ cover save m like hey! I actually get to make a save! Wow! True,.. 'eavo armor gives you more possibilities to make a save.. but hey... only my HQ/ Nobz or 1 squad with Grotsnik... But thats it.. Otherwise i'd rather take the extra boy for 1 point more...

I do have to say... i have trouble running green tide lately.. but that is because i lost focus for a while... and while i lost focus my opponents got better... No matter... crysh my Orks? I crush em right back with my Crons

*powerfist to all the Orks players*

 Green is Best! wrote:
How about this. Let's play a game:

We can roll 2 dice. I win if I roll any combination of 6,7, or 8. You win if you get 2,3,4,5,9,10,11, or 12. Ten bucks a roll for one hundred rolls. Interested?

You might wanna double check your math there before you get too cocky. At any rate I'd be happy to take you up on that game.

Egads! You might be right! So, I will take 5 as well and my 4 numbers should split evenly between his 7.

Like i said before, why are we mixing orks with maths?

 Green is Best! wrote:
Egads! You might be right! So, I will take 5 as well and my 4 numbers should split evenly between his 7.

Like i said before, why are we mixing orks with maths?

Orks work well with math.
We live in the law of large numbers, and cause our opponents to die by them
We love ratio's like 3:1 I have 3 models to each of yours.
and knowing the odds help when you really need a 8 for a crucial charge, (41.66) you know it's a good time for a WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGHHHH!!!!!

OH AND THIS IS MATHHAMMER!!

Ok no more Math. Saturday I'm going to be Bringing another Green Tide List, this one includes the required 100+ Ork Boyz and a Warboss. It will also include 33 Gretchin Force, Mad Dok, a Nob Troop Unit, without a Painboy and 2 units of 10 Lootas.
I will record everytime an Ork Boy is removed without a cover save and present that number here. I will also record everytime a Loota takes a cybork check instead of cover. I am playing 3 games with a 2 hour time limit (which includes setup) each. I will just present the hard facts from the games, Playing Space Wolves, Chaos Marines, and Dark Eldar (Skaven)

So you can't show how your math was correct (because it wasn't) and now you don't want to talk about. Sure.

Is it only the Lootas that will have cybork? I personally think it's a waste of points on them, but whatever floats your boat.

rigeld2 wrote:
So you can't show how your math was correct (because it wasn't) and now you don't want to talk about. Sure. Is it only the Lootas that will have cybork? I personally think it's a waste of points on them, but whatever floats your boat.

Again NO MORE MATH - just believe I'm wrong and it was babbling and move on. I have already shown how I came to all of my conclusions and you have either failed to see them or tried to correct me. I'm not going to change my view of dice rolling and I'm not going to convince you either way that my equations are workable.

So NO MORE MATH - lets talk about Orks shall we? Lootas with Cybork is never a waste for me. if they are for you then you have 100 more points to spend.

 Sleg wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:
So you can't show how your math was correct (because it wasn't) and now you don't want to talk about. Sure. Is it only the Lootas that will have cybork? I personally think it's a waste of points on them, but whatever floats your boat.

Again NO MORE MATH - just believe I'm wrong and it was babbling and move on. I have already shown how I came to all of my conclusions and you have either failed to see them or tried to correct me. I'm not going to change my view of dice rolling and I'm not going to convince you either way that my equations are workable.

So NO MORE MATH - lets talk about Orks shall we? Lootas with Cybork is never a waste for me. if they are for you then you have 100 more points to spend.

A little ironic that you made such a stand against a 50pt KFF that can give 5+ cover to dozens of boys, but you'll pay 100pts for a 5++ on 20 boys?

yes, I believe a 5+ Invulnerable Save for Lootas not Boyz is worth more to me than a 5+ Cover Save for Boyz.
I don't find it Ironic at all, since I usually give Nobs and the Warboss cybork. Because no matter the shot taken, I will always get to make my invulnerable save.

Also I have nothing against using the KFF, I was always saying for me taking the KFF never seemed worth it, when there was natural cover and intervening models providing it for free. Also that you don't always need to use a HQ slot for a weak boss that doesn't shoot.

it is cheaper just to get a skyshield though. it gets you a 4+ invuln and a positioned elevated firing platform.

And if you fill it with lootas it intimidates others into thinking your unassailable.

Sirlynchmob, that's probably the best advice I ever heard. I'll have to get off my butt and buy a Skyshield or proxy something (though I don't think I have anything similar).

I like it a lot and then I don't have to seem to be ironic.

Ok I did not use the Skyshield, nor did I use Gretchins. The Points were 1000 (710 points for Green Tide Portion) - SAG, 1 Big Gun (Kannon) and 10 Lootas. Skaven player didn't make it, played against, Chaos (Khorne), Tyranids (Doom and Mowloc), and Space Wolves (with long fangs, and some death thing). I actually won the game against Choas by 3 points, even with a Landraider. Against Space Wolves, lost by a point (Technically Tied - but ran out of time and didn't finish my movement phase for the bottom of the 3rd - I would've have Line Breaker. Lost to the Tyranids because of a contested objective. All games were ended by the 3rd turn.

Choas - Lost 24 Orks because of no cover, - rolled their imaginary cover and would have saved only 7 - 3 were because night fighting would have given 3+ cover insead of 4+. I also have the units spread out and would have needed 2 KFFs in order to have protected them all. SAG roll str 3 twice and str 7 once - causing no wounds.

Tyranids Lost 12 Orks because of no cover, but made 6+ 9 times. But Doom removed 7 and I had to move to attack it instead of pressing forward. Again the Warboss did the best. SAG rolled 2 first turn removing itself and Kannon amost the entire Kannon unit, even though I had a Runtherder make his 'Look Out Sir", I rolled a LD 9 and they ran off the back of the board.

Space Wolves ripped me apart, though I sustained no lack of cover losses I was faced with Invulnerable only saves. Also this Hammer attack, Psychic power, shot through 2 units og boyz doing only the removal of 1 Boy, but I did lose my SAG, which only rolled 4,4 in the first turn. They basically shot out the right side and then moved. I lost pretty solidly to them, even though time ran out, it was pretty clear if we completed the game I probably would have been done for Even though the Loods actually shot very well. they couldn't turnit int a victory.

So 7 of your 12 no cover orks were to the doom?
You know you get cover saves from his ability, right?

you really should drop the SAG, After 3 games like that can you really say he earned his points? or he's worth his cost in boys?

Reading this thread makes me laugh so much
Hyperbole, insults, and terrible, terrible maths
Keep it up

sirlynchmob wrote:
you really should drop the SAG, After 3 games like that can you really say he earned his points? or he's worth his cost in boys?

I was going to use a completely different tide list, but we created these test list awhile back and I was told that in order to keep the test fair no changes, so no Mad Doc and no skyshield (which I still need to aquire).
Yeah, the SAG is one of those weapons, that since the 4th edition Ork codex came out, it's just not as wacky as it used t be. In fact most shots are fairly boring, I have probably done worse over all with it than my few spectacular rolls like 8 Str 9 hits. 3 games with a poor showing does not decrease its value, in fact it makes me want to take it more, after a few games they get comfortable and not target it, so that when it actually does something, I get the "WTF". But you are certainly correct, it rarely earns back it's value and if I played competitively I probably would not include it, then again I probably would not use the Green Tide either.

With Doom, I was given a lot 5+ cover, because of terrain, still lost 7 in total because of the 2 movement phases it was around for. It didn't last through my shooting phase, but it did cause 2 units to slow their charge forward.

You only lost 7 models to the Doom of Malan'Tai? You must be playing the mentally ill or something.

Tactical_Genius wrote:
You only lost 7 models to the Doom of Malan'Tai? You must be playing the mentally ill or something.

Because the 3 units effected at the top of the 2nd turn, only failed to save 6 of the 10 wounds and during my movement, 2 units were able to get 6" away and the single unit rolled an 11 and failed to save, before 2 of the units killed it in my shooting phase. The Tyranid Player must be "mentally ill or something". All I can say is if that was mentally ill playing, I can't see how it would have done any better tactically. I could have easily rolled worse, but just as easily rolled much better.

You killed a 3++, W9 model with two units of shooting?

Tactical_Genius wrote:
You killed a 3++, W9 model with two units of shooting?

it's possible. 60 boys shooting
120 shots
40 hits
20 wounds
6.666 statistically unsaved wounds. a bit of bad saving and it's dead.