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New question: "What should I do about helldrakes?" Given my army the only anti air I have is the quadgun and a skyhammer storm talon. Would you guys suggest switching the skyhammer to a TL lascannon for 15 pts or a typhoon for 20pts? Or perhaps taking another storm talon since my fast attack slots are open? Or do you guys think I should add in a storm raven for its stormstrike missiles and/or typhoon/Multi melta? Or something entirely different?

Or would you guys suggest something like, if I know they have a helldrake, to drop my pods out of the way and very far apart and smack the ADL quad gun in a position to intercept the helldrake on its way to the troops?



I was wondering if you guys thought a librarian with Gate of Infinity and Vortex of Doom belonged in a competitive CF list. I think it would be useful to use gate of infinity to toss a sternguard squad around the table to where they are needed and to avoid close combat. Do you guys think that is a good idea, or is it better to put those 140pts somewhere else?

List:
Pedro Kantor- 175
Librarian with Terminator Armor and SS- 140

5 man tac squad, Drop Pod- 125
4 sniper scout, 1 M launcher and camo cloaks- 100
3 sniper scout, 1 M launcher and camo cloaks, telion- 150

Aegis Quad Gun- 100

10 man sternguard squad, 5 combi melta, Drop Pod- 310
10 man sternguard squad, 5 combi melta, Drop Pod- 310
10 man sternguard squad, 6 combi melta, Drop Pod- 315

Skyhammer storm talon- 125

Total: 1850

Besides the obvious drop podding, pair up telion and his squad with the quad gun so they get 2+ cover save. Toss the other squad between the quad gun and where I am dropping the troops. Deploy storm talon sooner rather than later.

With the extra 140 pts I could get another 5 man and drop pod and have another 15 points for combi weapons.

What do you all think?

Thanks in advance.

Edit: The terminator armor and SS is for using the Vortex of doom, the SS lets him survive if he fails the the vortex and at worst, with proper spacing, only one sternguard would die.

Edit2: Do you think this is a competitive list either with or without the drop pods?

Libbys belong in every list

Say hello for 2-3 Hell-Turkeys?

Sgt_Scruffy wrote:
Say hello for 2-3 Hell-Turkeys?

Hell drakes ya? What are their rules? I have most of the death from the skies book, and don't see the helldrake in it. I know you cant post the rules and what not, but I would appreciate you throwing down the stats I need to be concered about on the helldrake. Thanks much. Oh, and you are talking about hell drake ya?

Armor 12/12/10 5++ regains a hull point on a 5+ each turn.
Strength 6 AP3 torrent flamer with 360 LoS permission.

Ie. Scary for marines.

 Eldarain wrote:
Armor 12/12/10 5++ regains a hull point on a 5+ each turn.
Strength 6 AP3 torrent flamer with 360 LoS permission.

Ie. Scary for marines.

I think I've done all I can for anti air, quad gun and storm talon should take em out. The storm talon itself has a really high percent chance of killing any single flier in a turn. Is there anything else I could really do for anti air that isn't overkill?

Edit: Thanks for the stats eldarain!

Storm talon needs to shoot the helldrake in the rear. Only things like lascannons and multi melta are effective against its AV 12 sides. You can't win the hull point stripping game unless you are Tau.

Martel732 wrote:
Storm talon needs to shoot the helldrake in the rear. Only things like lascannons and multi melta are effective against its AV 12 sides. You can't win the hull point stripping game unless you are Tau.

Chances are that your assault cannon will get one HP and the skyhammer will get one HP. Should be enough to take down most fliers. Especially with the quad gun, each shot has a 1/3 chance of stripping a HP off AV12.

It has a 5++ demon save as well. And regens HP on 5+.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
And a BS 4 TL AC firing into AV 12 has less than a 50/50 to get a pen. Way less after the demon save.

Martel732 wrote:
It has a 5++ demon save as well. And regens HP on 5+.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
And a BS 4 TL AC firing into AV 12 has less than a 50/50 to get a pen. Way less after the demon save.

Though the fact the Assault Cannon is on a turret mount lets you try to fly behind it for a much better chance.

Martel732 wrote:
It has a 5++ demon save as well. And regens HP on 5+.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
And a BS 4 TL AC firing into AV 12 has less than a 50/50 to get a pen. Way less after the demon save.

Didn't think about the deamon save, but 4/6= .6 repeating. .3 repeating times 4/6 is .2 repeating, .6 plus .2 repeating is .8 repeating, .8 repeating times 1/6 is 1.481 repeating. 1.481 repeating time 4= .5925 repeating. Practicially 60% is much higher than "less than a 50/50 chance" considering you don't need to pen to strip a HP. It is practically for all intensive purposes a 2/3 chance, or what many consider what the chances would be if you had a BS4 STR1,000,000 to strip a hull point. Also something to consider, all assault cannon wounds vs AV12 are automatically penetrating since they are rending.

A skyhammer has a 4/6 chance to hit, .6 repeating. Times 2/6 is .6 repeating. So the skyhammer has a 2/3 chance of stripping an hp. The chances are exactly the same as if you had a BS4 STR1,000,000 to strip a HP.

So generally you have a good chance to strip 2 HPs versus 12 AV, much, much higher vs str 11 considering your chances to penetrate are doubled.

I am fairly sure all mathhammering I have done is correct, please bring up anything you may think may be incorrect and I will explain and/or correct.

EDIT: TL;DR Assualt cannon has (practically) a 4/6 chance to pen and will never glance AV12, Skyhammer has a 4/6 to strip a HP and roll on the damage table.

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Each AC hit has a .833 chance of NOT penetrating. Therefore, for 4 hits to NOT penetrate, it would be (.833)^4 or ~0.48. This means that the chance to penetrate at least once is (1-0.48) or 0.52.

However, there is the chance that the TL AC does not get all three hits. That drops the odds below 50/50.

Martel732 wrote:

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Each AC hit has a .833 chance of NOT penetrating. Therefore, for 4 hits to NOT penetrate, it would be (.833)^4 or ~0.48. This means that the chance to penetrate at least once is (1-0.48) or 0.52.

However, there is the chance that the TL AC does not get all three hits. That drops the odds below 50/50.

That is incorrect.

4BS, twin linked, RENDING,

We will calculate for one shot, then multiply by four.
For one hit, it is a 4/6 chance, so .6 repeating, it is twin linked, so then you multiply the difference of .6 repeating and 1 by 4/6, which is .2 repeating. You then add .2 repeating and .6 repeating which gives you the chance of a BS4 Twin Linked shot to hit, which is .8 repeating (.8888888888). You then have a 1/6 chance to glance, so you multiply .8 repeating by 1/6 to get .148 repeating. But the shot is rending, so on a six you roll and get between 1 and 3 additional strength, so no matter what, you get the pen. You then multiply the chance to pen (since there is no chance to glance) by the number of shots (4) to get .592, which is your chance to pen (since you will never glance av12 with an assault cannon).

Please say if you still think I am wrong. I am very sick today and have stayed home all day so it is entirely likely I am missing something obvious.

Regardless of the maths, you're assuming two things:

1) that both the quad and Stormtalon will be able to draw line of sight, without cover and
2) you're only facing one Heldrake.

I can only assume that, as well as never having faced a Heldrake, you've not seen one used against MEQ either. Trust us. THIS THING WILL HANG YOU UPSIDE DOWN BY THE ANKLES AND SHAKE OUT ALL YOUR LOOSE CHANGE. Even if you do kill it in your next turn, on the turn it arrives, you're looking at a scorched unit that will be easily wiped out with just a little supporting fire from elsewhere to mop up.

Now, of course this assumes that you're facing Chaos Marines to begin with - I'm not saying completely gut and re-balance your list based around the chance that you might face one. But don't underestimate the threat it represents.

For the list in general - can I ask why the Librarian seems to be on his own, and in Termie armour? You can't put him in the pods so if you plan to run him alone and walk him up to meet them, he'll have issues keeping up and might also represent an easy kill point. If he's hanging at the back with the Scouts, he doesn't really need the Termie armour.

There are two things that tell me your current train of thought are a lost cause.

The first is that you didn't even know what a Baledrake is.

The second is that you attempted to downplay them with math.

My only suggestion to you is to play a game using MEQ against an opponent fielding 2-3 Baledrakes per FOC to get some real first hand, hands-on experience with the subject.

The Heldrake is, or was, arguably the single most overpowered, game-changing, meta-defining, and inarguably the #1 threat to all MEQ armies. Players are resorting to running Scout squads instead of Tactical Marines just give less free points away.

The Heldrake is AV12, flies, Vector Strikes, ignores cover, ignores armor saves, ignores hull point loss, ignores Jink rules, ignores facing, and costs 170 points. It probably does a bunch of other stuff I can't remember off the top of my head as well.

Although the rise of Tau and Eldar have pushed Heldrakes and CSM out a bit, there was a period where Heldrake armies and Heldrake allies have pushed every single Marine codex out of the tournament scene for months at a time.

I would swap the 5man tacts and pod for a second Stormtalon. It'll help you vs your biggest weakness fliers. Helldrakes are just a nightmare for marines and your Libby can go in a drop with the sternguard as C:SM drop pods hold up to 12.

Has nobody seen the futility of this task yet? This list will be illegal in 2wks time, so you might as well wait.

Super Ready wrote:Regardless of the maths, you're assuming two things:

1) that both the quad and Stormtalon will be able to draw line of sight, without cover and
2) you're only facing one Heldrake.

I can only assume that, as well as never having faced a Heldrake, you've not seen one used against MEQ either. Trust us. THIS THING WILL HANG YOU UPSIDE DOWN BY THE ANKLES AND SHAKE OUT ALL YOUR LOOSE CHANGE. Even if you do kill it in your next turn, on the turn it arrives, you're looking at a scorched unit that will be easily wiped out with just a little supporting fire from elsewhere to mop up.

Now, of course this assumes that you're facing Chaos Marines to begin with - I'm not saying completely gut and re-balance your list based around the chance that you might face one. But don't underestimate the threat it represents.

For the list in general - can I ask why the Librarian seems to be on his own, and in Termie armour? You can't put him in the pods so if you plan to run him alone and walk him up to meet them, he'll have issues keeping up and might also represent an easy kill point. If he's hanging at the back with the Scouts, he doesn't really need the Termie armour.

Correct, my local metta had one deamon player which I have not seem for some time. And as Sam918 said, you can bring the termy lib with the sternguard in a drop pod. The terminator armor is there so I can use the storm shield, and the stormshield is there so my librarian can use Vortex of Doom and not have the statistic probability to get killed. At worst, if it fails Ill have to make a 3++ roll and a single sternguard will die with proper spacing.

Tyberos the Red Wake wrote:There are two things that tell me your current train of thought are a lost cause.

The first is that you didn't even know what a Baledrake is.

The second is that you attempted to downplay them with math.

My only suggestion to you is to play a game using MEQ against an opponent fielding 2-3 Baledrakes per FOC to get some real first hand, hands-on experience with the subject.

The Heldrake is, or was, arguably the single most overpowered, game-changing, meta-defining, and inarguably the #1 threat to all MEQ armies. Players are resorting to running Scout squads instead of Tactical Marines just give less free points away.

The Heldrake is AV12, flies, Vector Strikes, ignores cover, ignores armor saves, ignores hull point loss, ignores Jink rules, ignores facing, and costs 170 points. It probably does a bunch of other stuff I can't remember off the top of my head as well.

Although the rise of Tau and Eldar have pushed Heldrakes and CSM out a bit, there was a period where Heldrake armies and Heldrake allies have pushed every single Marine codex out of the tournament scene for months at a time.

I think "a lost cause" is a little exaggeration lol. I don't know what the drake was because the local demon guy hasnt showed up the days I do (probably because I dont do tournys there often and just play and their off days). Second, I am not trying to :downplay them with math," I am trying to get the math right. Having never played against one, I wan''t to pound out the math to see the statistics on them so I can try to learn more about them (hardly anyone would attempt to tack the label "lost cause" when a person is trying to learn more). Facing some drakes would definately help, though my local demon played hasn't showed up on the same day I have, and there is only one, so is there another unit that compares?

Godless-Mimicry wrote:Has nobody seen the futility of this task yet? This list will be illegal in 2wks time, so you might as well wait.

Weeeeeeelllllllllllllllllllll... not really, not at all. First of all the heldrake will still exist for a great time after two weeks, probably for the rest of 40k's life, so it is useful to talk about it.Second, local groups who are not concerned with playing with the exact current rules and want to play their army they've had for a while just for fun can benefit from this conversation. But most damning to the claim that this task is futile is the simple fact that drop pod armies will still be very helpful in the next codex edition. Think about it, no person can honestly believe that the new codex is going to take out drop pods. Neither does anyone believe that they will change drop pods in a significant way, nor do I think anyone would believe that drop pods will even come close to having changes that would effect anyone's drop pod army significantly. So no, this task is not futile at all.

sam918 wrote:I would swap the 5man tacts and pod for a second Stormtalon. It'll help you vs your biggest weakness fliers. Helldrakes are just a nightmare for marines and your Libby can go in a drop with the sternguard as C:SM drop pods hold up to 12.

Sound; like a good idea.

 Ryan_A wrote:
And as Sam918 said, you can bring the termy lib with the sternguard in a drop pod. The terminator armor is there so I can use the storm shield, and the stormshield is there so my librarian can use Vortex of Doom and not have the statistic probability to get killed. At worst, if it fails Ill have to make a 3++ roll and a single sternguard will die with proper spacing.

True enough, I forgot about this - Terminator ICs can still ride along. That makes this a good idea, though I would be particularly wary of scatter on the Vortex. Its power is tempting, but it can go horribly, horribly wrong with other pods around.

That said - as mentioned, the Vortex power is likely to disappear in a couple of weeks but having a Librarian up-front should still be useful. Other possible changes, though less likely, that may affect you:

1) Drop Pods may be dropped to 10 men. (actually quite likely, this one)
2) Drop Pods may be forbidden from taking Termies.
3) There may no longer be a way of making Sternguard scoring.
4) Sternguard themselves may become rubbish.

 Super Ready wrote:

 Ryan_A wrote:
And as Sam918 said, you can bring the termy lib with the sternguard in a drop pod. The terminator armor is there so I can use the storm shield, and the stormshield is there so my librarian can use Vortex of Doom and not have the statistic probability to get killed. At worst, if it fails Ill have to make a 3++ roll and a single sternguard will die with proper spacing.

True enough, I forgot about this - Terminator ICs can still ride along. That makes this a good idea, though I would be particularly wary of scatter on the Vortex. Its power is tempting, but it can go horribly, horribly wrong with other pods around.

That said - as mentioned, the Vortex power is likely to disappear in a couple of weeks but having a Librarian up-front should still be useful. Other possible changes, though less likely, that may affect you:

1) Drop Pods may be dropped to 10 men. (actually quite likely, this one)
2) Drop Pods may be forbidden from taking Termies.
3) There may no longer be a way of making Sternguard scoring.
4) Sternguard themselves may become rubbish.

Thanks. Yeah, I know all of this is likely to occur. Each codex has made me scrap my army as well as each rulebook change. If it wasn't so often I wouldn' t mind, but at this point I don't have the time or money to rewrite my arm every time this happens. Its entirely possible I'll part out my army and focus on my other gaming preoccupations.

Thanks though.

 Ryan_A wrote:

Martel732 wrote:

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Each AC hit has a .833 chance of NOT penetrating. Therefore, for 4 hits to NOT penetrate, it would be (.833)^4 or ~0.48. This means that the chance to penetrate at least once is (1-0.48) or 0.52.

However, there is the chance that the TL AC does not get all three hits. That drops the odds below 50/50.

That is incorrect.

4BS, twin linked, RENDING,

We will calculate for one shot, then multiply by four.
For one hit, it is a 4/6 chance, so .6 repeating, it is twin linked, so then you multiply the difference of .6 repeating and 1 by 4/6, which is .2 repeating. You then add .2 repeating and .6 repeating which gives you the chance of a BS4 Twin Linked shot to hit, which is .8 repeating (.8888888888). You then have a 1/6 chance to glance, so you multiply .8 repeating by 1/6 to get .148 repeating. But the shot is rending, so on a six you roll and get between 1 and 3 additional strength, so no matter what, you get the pen. You then multiply the chance to pen (since there is no chance to glance) by the number of shots (4) to get .592, which is your chance to pen (since you will never glance av12 with an assault cannon).

Please say if you still think I am wrong. I am very sick today and have stayed home all day so it is entirely likely I am missing something obvious.

AV 12 is weird spot for S6 rending. You need a "6" to activate rending, and "6" is the only number that has any effect on AV 12. So, each shot that successfully hits MUST roll a "6" to have any effect. The chance of this occurring is .1666, and so the chance of it NOT occurring is .83333. The chance of four sequential events NOT happening is the probably of each event multiplied together, so we get (.8333)^4. or ~0.48. But this is the probably of there NOT being at least one "6" on four dice. So the probability of there being at least one "6" is 1-0.48 or 0.52. This is about 50/50, but the TL AC will not always score 4 hits. So the chance is a bit below 50/50 even before the demonic save.

Martel732 wrote:

 Ryan_A wrote:

Martel732 wrote:

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Each AC hit has a .833 chance of NOT penetrating. Therefore, for 4 hits to NOT penetrate, it would be (.833)^4 or ~0.48. This means that the chance to penetrate at least once is (1-0.48) or 0.52.

However, there is the chance that the TL AC does not get all three hits. That drops the odds below 50/50.

That is incorrect.

4BS, twin linked, RENDING,

We will calculate for one shot, then multiply by four.
For one hit, it is a 4/6 chance, so .6 repeating, it is twin linked, so then you multiply the difference of .6 repeating and 1 by 4/6, which is .2 repeating. You then add .2 repeating and .6 repeating which gives you the chance of a BS4 Twin Linked shot to hit, which is .8 repeating (.8888888888). You then have a 1/6 chance to glance, so you multiply .8 repeating by 1/6 to get .148 repeating. But the shot is rending, so on a six you roll and get between 1 and 3 additional strength, so no matter what, you get the pen. You then multiply the chance to pen (since there is no chance to glance) by the number of shots (4) to get .592, which is your chance to pen (since you will never glance av12 with an assault cannon).

Please say if you still think I am wrong. I am very sick today and have stayed home all day so it is entirely likely I am missing something obvious.

AV 12 is weird spot for S6 rending. You need a "6" to activate rending, and "6" is the only number that has any effect on AV 12. So, each shot that successfully hits MUST roll a "6" to have any effect. The chance of this occurring is .1666, and so the chance of it NOT occurring is .83333. The chance of four sequential events NOT happening is the probably of each event multiplied together, so we get (.8333)^4. or ~0.48. But this is the probably of there NOT being at least one "6" on four dice. So the probability of there being at least one "6" is 1-0.48 or 0.52. This is about 50/50, but the TL AC will not always score 4 hits. So the chance is a bit below 50/50 even before the demonic save.

Ya I see it, but I still dont get it. Im super sick, when I get better I'll probably see it and fell like an idiot haha. I think I am getting hung up on the "four sequential events" thing, as I don't think it counts a lot of things, like the chance for multiple shots hitting and what not. I think it misses on a few things too. Tell me if I am wrong.

I am assuming four hits from the AC. That's why the total probability for inflicting a HP on AV 12 is less than 50/50 with a BS 4 TL AC. Because there is a probability that there are only 3 hits, and that math is substantially worse. I'm assuming the case of getting two pens is negligible. It's pretty small in any case.

According to Mathhammer, 4 STR 6 TL Rending shots into AV 12 with a 5++

.0 Glances (obviously)
.395 pens
6.6% of exploding it

Keep in mind Pens 1-3 do basically nothing to a Drake 5/6 times....

anonymou5 wrote:
According to Mathhammer, 4 STR 6 TL Rending shots into AV 12 with a 5++

.0 Glances (obviously)
.395 pens
6.6% of exploding it

Keep in mind Pens 1-3 do basically nothing to a Drake 5/6 times....

Thanks for the first thing, but I really dont get the last thing you said. 2 pens on average have a higher chance to destroy anything rather than not, its bad form to calculate "luck" into math-hammering if indeed you meant that the first three pens dont do anything.If I misinterpreted you, sorry, still very sick.

 Ryan_A wrote:

anonymou5 wrote:
According to Mathhammer, 4 STR 6 TL Rending shots into AV 12 with a 5++

.0 Glances (obviously)
.395 pens
6.6% of exploding it

Keep in mind Pens 1-3 do basically nothing to a Drake 5/6 times....

Thanks for the first thing, but I really dont get the last thing you said. 2 pens on average have a higher chance to destroy anything rather than not, its bad form to calculate "luck" into math-hammering if indeed you meant that the first three pens dont do anything.If I misinterpreted you, sorry, still very sick.

Please don't tell me I'm using bad form if you don't understand what I'm saying. Heldrakes have the rule "Daemonic Possession" Which means they ignore Crew Shaken and Stunned Results on a D6 roll of 2+ That means when you pen, half the results are effectively just glances. Then, 1/3rd of the time he gets that HP back anyway (because Heldrakes also have the It Will Not Die Rule). I wasn't adding luck into math-hammering, I was adding a mathematical caveat to how ineffective a single AP - pen is to a Drake.

anonymou5 wrote:

 Ryan_A wrote:

anonymou5 wrote:
According to Mathhammer, 4 STR 6 TL Rending shots into AV 12 with a 5++

.0 Glances (obviously)
.395 pens
6.6% of exploding it

Keep in mind Pens 1-3 do basically nothing to a Drake 5/6 times....

Thanks for the first thing, but I really dont get the last thing you said. 2 pens on average have a higher chance to destroy anything rather than not, its bad form to calculate "luck" into math-hammering if indeed you meant that the first three pens dont do anything.If I misinterpreted you, sorry, still very sick.

Please don't tell me I'm using bad form if you don't understand what I'm saying. Heldrakes have the rule "Daemonic Possession" Which means they ignore Crew Shaken and Stunned Results on a D6 roll of 2+ That means when you pen, half the results are effectively just glances. Then, 1/3rd of the time he gets that HP back anyway (because Heldrakes also have the It Will Not Die Rule). I wasn't adding luck into math-hammering, I was adding a mathematical caveat to how ineffective a single AP - pen is to a Drake.

All that doesnt change the fact that the odds are after 2 pens the vehicle would be destroyed. Thanks for your info though.

Edit: what I mean is, you said " 1-3 do basically nothing to a Drake 5/6 times" which is pretty much the opposite of the truth. 3 pens have an extremely good chance to take the vehicle out of the game. Statistically, 2 pens will destroy any vehicle more likely than they wouldn't. And those who would prescribe to the statement that 5/6 times pens 1-3 dont do anything usually back up the claim with something like: "that has always been my experience," "I've never been able to destroy them with that much," "I blame bad rolls," etc.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I realize I am kinda being a jerk and I know I keep using this excuse, I am really sick. But its true. Anyway, I do appreciate you guys helping, sorry for being so short.

The TL AC has basically 0 chance to pen the helldrake twice. I don't know where that is coming from. But yes, the TL AC is a horribly ineffective weapon against the helldrake unless you shoot in in the aft section that is AV 10.

Martel732 wrote:
The TL AC has basically 0 chance to pen the helldrake twice. I don't know where that is coming from. But yes, the TL AC is a horribly ineffective weapon against the helldrake unless you shoot in in the aft section that is AV 10.

Again, this sounds like more "luck" and non-statistics talk. I am personally not a fan. I like statistics, there are a lot of small things that many people consider have "basically 0 chance," they add up to A LOT. In this case 10% increased efficiency (or if we are talking about that whole "5/6 of the time 3 pens dont do anything," a whopping 300% increased efficiency, or if we take "don't do anything" literally, it comes out to be an undefined increase of efficiency (as 300% is infinitely higher than 0).

Edit: Spacebar didn't work.

Edit2: Seriously though, if the first hit pens, then there is a 50% chance of another pen, quite a big difference between "basically 0"% and 50% chance.

I already showed the math of why its bad. Less than 50/50 of doing a hull point that will be regenerated on a 5+ anyway. A miniscule chance of exploding, which the the result you really want. Helldrakes are best shot with weapons that have a bonus on the damage table. Unless you are Tau and have Robotech missiles.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
"Seriously though, if the first hit pens, then there is a 50% chance of another pen, quite a big difference between "basically 0"% and 50% chance."

That is not true at all. There is a 7% chance to get two "6"s on four dice.