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Possibly news, definately something to discuss. Every year FFG does a report on their business at GenCon. Purple Pawn is nice enough to pass that on to those who could not attend.

http://www.purplepawn.com/2013/08/fantasy-flight-games-2013-in-flight-report/

No hard numbers on the sales, but squishy things like percentage growth and sales splits. However, FFG was featured in a news article in the Pioneer Press business section a few weeks ago.

http://www.twincities.com/business/ci_23785236/putting-games-back-table

That article gave some figures to go with the numbers from the In-Flight report.

Useful quotes...

The company rakes in more than $30 million in annual revenue by appealing to a growing subset of game players -- the hobbyists.

By 2008, the Fantasy Flight's annual revenue had reached $12.9 million and its payroll had grown to more than 40 employees -- the company now employs more than 100.

By product line, 37 percent of FFG’s sales are board games, 24 percent card games, 16 percent miniatures, 10 percent roleplaying games, 9 percent supplies, and 4 percent other products. Comparing this to last year’s numbers, it appears that as a percentage of the company’s business, board games dropped significantly, while card games, miniatures, and roleplaying games rose.

Regarding FFG’s business, we learned this year that the company continues to experience strong growth—greater than 25 percent every year since 2000.

For those who like a larger picture, you can also find several of the past In-Flight reports from Purple Pawn as well to see the general trajectory.

http://www.purplepawn.com/2012/08/fantasy-flight-games-2012-in-flight-report/

http://www.purplepawn.com/2011/08/fantasy-flight-games-2011-in-flight-report/

I'm willing to bet that 16% miniatures has taken a substantial upwards swing since this time last year...

Up from 10% of total business last year, so yes, good growth with X Wing for them in their miniatures.

Keep in mind that FFG sells almost entirely through distributors and their direct sales (conventions and through their website) account for less than 3% of total sales.

Working the math sloppy and fast, miniatures would be around $5 million this year for them, up from around $2.5 million last year (60 percent growth in miniatures and 25 percent growth in total business...roughly speaking).

Imagine the money they could make if they were able to keep stuff in stock at their distributors. Tie Interceptors are still going for $35 on the secondary market.

I think I remember reading that the popularity of X-Wing has taken them completely by surprise? As in even though they were expecting it to sell well (I mean really.. is there a hotter IP?) it sold many times higher than estimates.

 Specs wrote:
Imagine the money they could make if they were able to keep stuff in stock at their distributors. Tie Interceptors are still going for $35 on the secondary market.

This past year they built a new HQ and expanded their warehouses as well in order to help deal with that. One of the issues they had in the past few years was no place to put stuff that they get in from the factories, so with any luck the restock and new product waves that will be coming in in the next few months should be able to be large enough that they dont run out of stock completely before their next production order arrives.

I'm just surprised the X-Wing numbers are so comparatively low. The stuff moves like water in a desert here.

 cincydooley wrote:
I'm just surprised the X-Wing numbers are so comparatively low. The stuff moves like water in a desert here.

Not a whole lot to sell though to be honest.

I cant be certain on what price the distributors are getting them at, but normally they mark it up by 10% or so over there price. Wholesale is just over 50% (boosters for a bit under $8 and the core set for about $21). Since they have 15 SKU numbers in the line right now (including the B Wing, Tie Bomber and the rest of that wave) each potential customer to be all in with one of everything would only be spending $343 or so retail. FFG only gets half of that. Figure somewhere around 340,000 units sold or so. That is a lot of product for a niche of a niche industry...especially when you consider the scale of the game.

Based off from units sold, that is probably about 15-20% of the number of 40K items GW moves in a year...and it is a 1 year old skirmish game with two sides and only 15 SKUs as opposed to a mass combat game that is nearly 30 years old with 15 different sides and a couple of hundred SKUs.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

 cincydooley wrote:
I'm just surprised the X-Wing numbers are so comparatively low. The stuff moves like water in a desert here.

Not a whole lot to sell though to be honest.

I cant be certain on what price the distributors are getting them at, but normally they mark it up by 10% or so over there price. Wholesale is just over 50% (boosters for a bit under $8 and the core set for about $21). Since they have 15 SKU numbers in the line right now (including the B Wing, Tie Bomber and the rest of that wave) each potential customer to be all in with one of everything would only be spending $343 or so retail. FFG only gets half of that. Figure somewhere around 340,000 units sold or so. That is a lot of product for a niche of a niche industry...especially when you consider the scale of the game.

Based off from units sold, that is probably about 15-20% of the number of 40K items GW moves in a year...and it is a 3 year old skirmish game with two sides and only 15 SKUs as opposed to a mass combat game that is nearly 30 years old with 15 different sides and a couple of hundred SKUs.

Well, when you put it like that... Of course, I expect plenty of xwing players have multiples of a few SKUs. In any case, that is a lot of product moved, more than I had thought.

That's a really great point regarding the $$ that distributors are paying, especially considering FFGs direct channel isn't the primary way most folks are getting these models.

weeble1000 wrote:

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

 cincydooley wrote:
I'm just surprised the X-Wing numbers are so comparatively low. The stuff moves like water in a desert here.

Not a whole lot to sell though to be honest.

I cant be certain on what price the distributors are getting them at, but normally they mark it up by 10% or so over there price. Wholesale is just over 50% (boosters for a bit under $8 and the core set for about $21). Since they have 15 SKU numbers in the line right now (including the B Wing, Tie Bomber and the rest of that wave) each potential customer to be all in with one of everything would only be spending $343 or so retail. FFG only gets half of that. Figure somewhere around 340,000 units sold or so. That is a lot of product for a niche of a niche industry...especially when you consider the scale of the game.

Based off from units sold, that is probably about 15-20% of the number of 40K items GW moves in a year...and it is a 3 year old skirmish game with two sides and only 15 SKUs as opposed to a mass combat game that is nearly 30 years old with 15 different sides and a couple of hundred SKUs.

Well, when you put it like that... Of course, I expect plenty of xwing players have multiples of a few SKUs. In any case, that is a lot of product moved, more than I had thought.

Like most dirty estimates, it requires dirty assumptions. You will have collectors who buy one of each for their shelves...Rebel players who only buy rebel items...Imperial players who only buy Imperial items... Should be within a 20 or 30 thousand units though. I woulld guess you will see an even bigger jump next year based on what I have heard about the Epic rules, as they allow for much larger battles as welll as the big ships.

Next summer, their are rumors of a ground based miniatures game...though that is still very sketchy and depends a good bit on Disney and if the license looks secure.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 cincydooley wrote:
That's a really great point regarding the $$ that distributors are paying, especially considering FFGs direct channel isn't the primary way most folks are getting these models.

Makes a big difference when considering market share and all that. GW sells more than half of their product direct while almost all the other significant players are wholesale. When you look at dollars, the FFG number of $5 million is tiny compared to $200 million or so from GW. However, FFG is making about half as much on each sale and I would guess that a large portion of the X Wing players have less invested in the game than say...the 40K rulebook (and that will get you a starter box and two boosters with money left over for a value meal). Most games hve fewer than 10 models on the table in total right now...so with the various upgrades and what not, you can actually play for quite a while with just those miniatures.

For those who would like to see the whole of the In Flight Report...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ6McYLTY_0

More information than in the summary.

Specs wrote:Imagine the money they could make if they were able to keep stuff in stock at their distributors. Tie Interceptors are still going for $35 on the secondary market.

Really? Interceptors and A Wings are the only little ships we have on the shelf here at the moment, about a half dozen of each.

 AduroT wrote:

Really? Interceptors and A Wings are the only little ships we have on the shelf here at the moment, about a half dozen of each.

The last time I checked they had a shelf full of falcons and x-wings and not much else over here. That was a few weeks ago, I guess I'd better run by and check again.

I just inventoried them the other day. I think it was something like five Interceptors, seven A Wings, three Slave Ones and four Millennium Falcons here. I know those were the only ship types we have though.

Thanks for the posts Sean. Am curious as to how long the X-wing craze will continue. Not seeing it played as much anymore and the main group that plays it has moved onto the Star Trek version. From the sounds of it, FFG should be able to meet demand soon, but once that is reached, what next? Unfortunately the post movie fiction starts getting silly in power levels. If they have a Star Wars ground game though, see that going crazy. Crazy enough that it may bump 40k for the top miniature game on ICv2's list. Battle of Hoth baby, Battle of Hoth.

Also curious if the rumors are true that the Specialist Games was licensed to FFG. Listening to the GenCon presentation, feel they would be in good hands.

One little history note, surprised to learn FFG created the Disk War game. Remember it being AEG, but that might be because the sets were around AEG licenses.

But who cares if it bumps it on ICv2s list? Now that we have some idea of how much they're moving, we know it isn't really anywhere close to 40k in terms of $$, so how much faith can we put in those ICv2 lists?

I was really disappointed in the Trek ships that I saw at gencon. They're very clearly about 2 steps below the Star Wars ones in quality, which is a real shame. The other shame is that it looks like WizKids is gonna stay the course and have models you can only get by winning tournaments that are then playable. Blah.

Keep in mind that 40K has a long way to fall to loose #1 on that list. The list is based off from sales in dollars, not people who play the game. Because 40K is so expensive compared to the rest of the games, they may have two or three times as many players and still not be able to overtake 40K.

With X Wing in particular, you are looking at that $100 figure for a pretty good set of options to play with (till February at least). That wont even get a rulebook and Codex for 40K let alone any figures to actually game with. Entry price for a new player is 3 or 4 times what you would spend on X Wing (or other games like Infinity, Warmachine or Wyrd's game).

Regarding the Specialist Games, I hadnt heard anything from anyone I talk to over there, and that would go against GWs past history regarding miniature games. Not saying it wouldnt happen, but I would be highly surprised if it did. One of the reasons that Dust was let go was to free up resources for Star Wars stuff, and I dont think they would want to then fill in with those games to eat up more resources when they have the license to use what is probably the single most famous sci-fi property ever.

Long term, will depend a bit on what happens with it. The new big ships and tournament format should push it along well enough through 2014 and then 2015 we will have the release of Episode VII. Depending on that film and provided that FFG continues to maintain the license through Disney...you could well see two star wars games in the number 1 and 2 slots of that list (given larger force sizes of X Wing and the rumbles I have heard regarding a ground based game included 40-50 troops and several vehicles per side).

Do you think the price point on the new huge ships is going to adversely affect sales? I know I did a double take when I saw the cost of the Tantive IV.

I keep hoping GW will get their head out of their asses and do a proper partnership with FFG regarding the specialist games. Let FFG provide the support and all the "board game" type pieces (cards, cardboard, tokens, etc) and produce the plastic sprues for them. I mean, the partnership is already basically there. I don't understand why they refuse to take that next step. It would be, IMO, a perfect marriage.

But, you know, GW decision making. These are the same people that refuse to do an apparel line.

 cincydooley wrote:
But who cares if it bumps it on ICv2s list? Now that we have some idea of how much they're moving, we know it isn't really anywhere close to 40k in terms of $$, so how much faith can we put in those ICv2 lists?

A lot, provided you understand what they are measuring.

Lets say I own a game store and I have a customer come in to start a new 40K army. I sell them a rulebook, a codex, a battle force, and an HQ. I ring them up for $250 or so right off the bat. I then have a customer who comes in and wants to start Warmachine. I sell them the rulebook, their army book, and a 25 point army. I ring them up for $180. Next a customer comes looking to start X Wing. I sell them the starter and two blisters and ring them up for $70.

Now each system has a new customer. ICV2 rings me up and asks me to rank the systems based on what is selling the most for me. In order to get above 40K, I need to get two new customers for Warmachine but I need to get 7 new customers for X Wing. When X Wing first came out, it was out selling Warmachine by a lot because you had a lot of those $70 orders. Now they have normalized more or less and you have a few of those, but more $15 and $30 purchases. The player base of the other games is growing which has an additive effect to there position. The more people who play a game, the more people who might start to play the game.

Fuss about it all you like, but everyone else is growing in double digits but GW. GW just happens to have a triple digit lead in cost of entry so it takes a good bit to catch up to them.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 cincydooley wrote:
Do you think the price point on the new huge ships is going to adversely affect sales? I know I did a double take when I saw the cost of the Tantive IV.

I keep hoping GW will get their head out of their asses and do a proper partnership with FFG regarding the specialist games. Let FFG provide the support and all the "board game" type pieces (cards, cardboard, tokens, etc) and produce the plastic sprues for them. I mean, the partnership is already basically there. I don't understand why they refuse to take that next step. It would be, IMO, a perfect marriage.

I dont think the price will impact sales much at all for those ships. They are big and very well detailed. Plus, from the collectors viewpoint, they are prepainted so they can go straight on the shelf. Modelers can repaint easily enough, or just freshen them up a bit to make it their own. Other comparable items (toy, gaming or otherwise) carry prices that are very close and those dont carry the Star Wars pedigree that easily adds another 25% or so to everything. That will probably make them a great deal for their target customer.

On the specialist games, I think it would be win-loose, not win, win. Unless FFG were to get the right to produce the miniatures, managing the rules and related tasks for a miniature game would be a loosing proposition. The money in wargames is not in the rules, but in the miniatures. Paying writers, artists and all the rest to produce rules without being able to offset those costs with miniature sales is really hard to do and still be good business. RPGs are hard enough, but with those at least you can normally count on returns over a longer period of time, plus you can more readily do supplements and expansions without extensive play testing.

I would honestly be surprised if FFG was even interested in getting Specialist Games if offered. With the exception of doing offscale boardgame style games, it would be a lot of hassle for not much return.

I am really looking forward to picking up the new Battlelore Second edition.

I am a big fan of Battle lore and the other Borg games. Lately I have been feeling like I am being priced out of GW and FFG as well as Flying frog productions and a few others have been benefitting big time.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
Keep in mind that 40K has a long way to fall to loose #1 on that list. The list is based off from sales in dollars, not people who play the game. Because 40K is so expensive compared to the rest of the games, they may have two or three times as many players and still not be able to overtake 40K.

With X Wing in particular, you are looking at that $100 figure for a pretty good set of options to play with (till February at least). That wont even get a rulebook and Codex for 40K let alone any figures to actually game with. Entry price for a new player is 3 or 4 times what you would spend on X Wing (or other games like Infinity, Warmachine or Wyrd's game).

Regarding the Specialist Games, I hadnt heard anything from anyone I talk to over there, and that would go against GWs past history regarding miniature games. Not saying it wouldnt happen, but I would be highly surprised if it did. One of the reasons that Dust was let go was to free up resources for Star Wars stuff, and I dont think they would want to then fill in with those games to eat up more resources when they have the license to use what is probably the single most famous sci-fi property ever.

Long term, will depend a bit on what happens with it. The new big ships and tournament format should push it along well enough through 2014 and then 2015 we will have the release of Episode VII. Depending on that film and provided that FFG continues to maintain the license through Disney...you could well see two star wars games in the number 1 and 2 slots of that list (given larger force sizes of X Wing and the rumbles I have heard regarding a ground based game included 40-50 troops and several vehicles per side).

Like I said, Battle of Hoth. I could see people dropping $200 - $300 for figs right off the bat. Even if the entry level is $50. I could see an AT-AT being $50 each. There were what, 6 AT-AT's in Battle of Hoth? The number of players doing that could easily bump 40K for a quarter of the year. There are a lot of ex-GW players out there, dumping that money for a one time purchase won't phase them. But this is all dependent on the rules being good and the figures available.

*edit* While I agree with no figs for Necromunda and Mordheim. Battle Fleet Gothic, Warmasters, and Epic 40,000 all use unique figures that aren't interchangeable with GW figs. Those lines could easily be resurrected. Even Blood Bowl could be redone as their figs are a stretch to incorporated to any of the existing GW games. But with the runaway success of X-wing, I don't see them sidelining any figure production for any of those.

If the ICv2 numbers are super low, then wow is Warhammer Fantasy doing craptastic. I've heard that it's been doing bad and there's a rumour that 9th edition is scheduled for next year to try to turn things around, but I guess I never really had an appreciation for just how badly it is doing.

As for FFG's numbers, aren't they all at distributor prices? Like cheaper than wholesale? The actual sales in MSRP of FFG's products is likely close to double, with the difference going to stores and distributors.

My point is that the ICv2 numbers don't adequately reflect actual numbers because they don't include GW direct sales. That's all.

It's only useful as a general survey of independent store sales in the US. The only conclusions that we can draw from it is that when stores have general distributor accounts either instead of or in addition to a GW account, they sell the products they get from those distributors sometimes (usually?) more than WFB and pretty much always less than 40k.

Either way, FFG is another company in the hobby that's experiencing growth. I recently played their new Star Wars living card game and it was pretty fun. I tend to enjoy most things they do.

If anything, I was surprised at how low FFGs numbers were in general. I think of them as the "biggest" or "premier" board game manufacturer in the US and honestly thought they'd be pushing bigger numbers.

But again, of course, everything is comparative. Corvus Belli hasn't even cracked $1MM a year yet (tho it looks like they may in 2013!!!) and I would have guessed they were.

If anything, it all makes me really, really curious to see how much PP is doing. I don't think well ever get that info., but man, id love to see it.

 frozenwastes wrote:
It's only useful as a general survey of independent store sales in the US. The only conclusions that we can draw from it is that when stores have general distributor accounts either instead of or in addition to a GW account, they sell the products they get from those distributors sometimes (usually?) more than WFB and pretty much always less than 40k.

Either way, FFG is another company in the hobby that's experiencing growth. I recently played their new Star Wars living card game and it was pretty fun. I tend to enjoy most things they do.

Remember that ICv2 only reports United States sales. Not global and is an informal survey. And WHFB has always been less popular in the than 40k. The question is how the numbers look in Europe and the UK. Is there an equivalent ICv2 in those regions?

Another question I would have that wasn't answered in the In Flight Report video was how much of the miniature (X-Wing) sales were Domestic vs. RoW? They show a 45/55 split, but it sounds like that is across all their lines.

I would need to ring a few people up to be certain, but I believe due to logistics issues overseas, X Wing is a bit higher domestic than the rest of their catalogue (60-40ish). Restocks have been happening sooner here, so you had a larger portion ordering through US suppliers, which bumps the numbers up a bit. Unlike something like a big board game box, the shipping on the X Wing boosters is bearable enough to have that be a viable option as well.

It was sort of a side coversation to the main conversation regarding their general logistics issues that I had had back in June though, so that is likely a shifting number depending on where their resupply shipments happen to be at any given moment.

Thanks Sean. Though from that, X-wing might only account for somewhat more than $1 million for FFG's revenue for the US sales. I'm assuming though that the 6% added to the FFG numbers reflect the sales only due to X-wing.

$2 - 2.5 million or so domestic IIRC. There are other factors as well though if you are looking to try and assign numbers to the quarterly figures from ICv2. Over half the sales came in that initial launch period, with the other half split fairly steady since the end of 2012. It is a bit of a rolling number, and FFG doesnt deal with too many miniatures as it is. Dust was a factor till late spring, but not a huge factor.