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2013/09/19 00:51:28
Subject: 1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau (Completed)
In that tournament, I brought a rather "unique" Space Wolf anti-meta list and Adam brought his triptide Tau army. However, we never got the chance to play each other there. So we decided to have an "unofficial" game to see what would happen had we faced each other with those armies.
Also, this match was played after the following match:
Since that game, Adam has adjusted his army to be able to better handle AV12-spam by adding in some broadsides. Question is, can he take on AV14-spam? He may have to "re-adjust" his list once again after I get through with him.
Since we were playing at 1850 instead of the original 1750 (because Adam was practicing for another tournament), I went ahead and upgraded a few of my units.
Rune Priest Loki - Meltabombs - Jaws of the World Wolf, Murderous Hurricane Rune Priest Blackheart - Jaws of the World Wolf, Stormcaller Rune Priest Goldmoon - Boltgun - Jaws of the World Wolf, Living Lightning
Land Raider Prometheus "Prometheus" - Mult-melta (ELITE choice)
This is going to be a tough battle for my opponent. It's ironic how he's upgrades his army to be better able to deal with armor...only to find out that it's still not enough. In our last matchup (against my mechdar), he had difficulty taking down my AV12 serpents. Well, he's adjusted his list to be able to handle mechdar better, but now he's come into another problem - how to deal with AV14. His army does have the tools to do it, however, it isn't very efficient and will take up practically amost his entire army just to try to take down 1 land raider....and even that may not be enough!
How much damage can he potentially do my my LR's? Let's assume his units will be twin-linked and will be ignoring cover. Let's also assume his riptides successfully nova-charge their Heavy Burst Cannons. Each riptide will potentially average 1 HP of damage. 4 of his broadsides will average .5 HP and his unit of broadsides with Tank Hunter (from his commander) will average .46 HP's. So assuming under these ideal conditions - no cover, every unit twin-linked despite my rune priests negating 50% of his psychic powers, all nova-charging successful and every unit is in range and has LOS to the same LR - he can potentially kill it with 3.96 HP of damage per turn. But the reality is that conditions are never ideal and so he will probably do at most 3 HP of damage a turn....not enough to even kill 1 LR a turn.
And then there is Jaws. That power has a 50% chance to kill each riptide. I also have a chance to kill multiple riptides if he is not careful with their positioning. After I deal with the riptides, his broadsides will be in danger as well. If he comes after my LR's with the intent to assault them with his riptides, he is just playing right into my hands (and the hands of my rune priests).
I've also got 4 TL-multi-meltas, 2 TL-lascannons and 1 multi-melta to deal with his broadsides (and riptides). I've then got 2 thunderfire cannons and 1 whirlwind launcher that will ignore his cover saves and really hurt his infantry as will as 12 TL-heavy bolter shots with -1 to his cover.
Finally, in this scenario, I can always resort to tank-shocking his troops. They are going to be spread out due to my TFC's and if his Ethereal is anywhere on the table, my TFC's are going to take him out. Thus, they should be testing against my tank shocks on their standard LD instead of the LD buff by his Ethereal.
Honestly, I cannot see this matchup going well for my opponent at all. I think he is a 30-70 underdog in this game.
Taudar:
There isn't much my opponent can do. He's got to focus on 1 land raider at a time until he kills it (and preferably the ones with the Rune Priests). Once he's disembarked them, he can easily wipe out the unit and the RP with the amount of firepower (and LOS-ignoring SMS firepower) he's got in his army.
He's also going to have to spread out his army, because of both my TFC's and against Jaws as well. He does not want to present me with multiple Jaws targets (i.e. riptides) if he can help it.
On the bright side, at least he was well-rested for this game.
Farseer casts his powers on 2 of the riptides. Buff Commander gives his broadsides Tank Hunter. (Assume this is the case for all turns unless I specify otherwise.)
All 3 riptides successfully nova-charges. They then move.
1 lucky shot from a riptide manages to take off the thunderfire cannon from my right Achilles. BTW, Blackheart fails to cast Stormcaller...not that it would have mattered.
He marks Helios with 2 units of pathfinders. 2 riptides and the broadsides then proceed to wreck it. The unit of grey hunters get pinned.
First Blood for Tau in what was a very good turn of shooting for them.
Finally, riptides jump back.
Space Wolves 1
Spoiler:
Land raiders move up 6" and out comes my Rune Priests. Rune Priest Goldmoon ventures out on his own.
That is because in his sights are 2 riptides lined up!
Rune Priest Loki will go after his other riptide.
With a little luck, I just may take out all his riptides in 1 turn!
My Warlord's LR advances 6" only.
His TFC wipes out an entire unit of pathfinders.
Loki opens up the ground and the lone riptide falls in! (Translation - he just got pwned by Jaws. )
Now for the main course....Goldmoon casts Jaws at the 2 riptides....and gets denied on a ! Arghhhhh!
Last but not least, Prometheus moves flat-out to block LOS to Loki's unit and give them some protection.
Taudar 2
Spoiler:
Jetbikes come in.
As do 1 unit of fire warriors. Riptides move. They also nova-charge their SMS.
Fire warriors take out Goldmoon. Riptides fire SMS (and HBC for the left riptide) at Loki's unit and kill 3 grey hunters.
Once again, broadsides shoot above-average and take off 2 HP's from my Achilles (average shooting would only take off 1 HP).
Riptides then do their jetpack move in the Assault phase.
Space Wolves 2
Spoiler:
SW movement. The unit of 2 hunters re-embark back onto Prometheus. Grey hunters disembark from Archimedes to join Loki.
My Warlord, Blackheart, and his unit disembarks. I try to stick as many of them behind the LOS-blocking hill as possible.
Achilles advance 6" Grey hunters start to move towards the objective.
Here I make a stupid, mental mistake. I forget that Archimedes had lost its TFC from enemy fire (on Turn 1) and send it after his jetbikes. Needless to say, I wasted its turn here.
Another riptide bites the dust (to Jaws)!
Blackheart is about to cast Jaws but then gets a glimpse of something in the Warp, thus messing up his concentration as well as causing a wound his psyche. Doh!!!
Achilles wipe out another unit of pathfinders with its TFC. It also shoots down a shield drone with a Power of the Machine Spirit multi-melta.
It would have been hilarious if his Warlord's unit were to run off the board because of that, but alas, they pass Morale.
So far, it's been pretty much a back-&-forth game. Tau takes out a LR. I take out a riptide. He takes out one of my RP's. I then take out another 1 riptide. That is actually a good thing for my opponent as he is doing much better than I had thought. If he can keep it up, I just may be in trouble!
Taudar 3
Spoiler:
His final 2 units of fire warriors (with Ethereal) comes in on left.
Fire warriors on the right move to try to get a view of my hunters hiding behind the tower.
Riptide novacharges his SMS because the majority of my unit is out of LOS. Along with 1 or 2 units of broadsides, they then wipe out my Warlord and his unit (mainly with SMS) after I roll terribly for my saves.
His broadsides with Buff commander then goes on fire. They shoot at my Achilles, roll double 6's to hit and then double 6's on glance, all without needing any of the re-rolls!
Pop goes Achilles.
Finally, the fire warriors shoot at Loki's unit. I am force to LOS the wounds to my unit and they get wiped out.
Wow....what a disastrous turn for me.
Fire warriors then run and the riptide jumps back.
Space Wolves 3
Spoiler:
Hunters continue to move up.
Achilles advance. Loki moves to get LOS to his riptide.
I don't care if I lose the game, but I'm going to make damn sure I kill his last riptide if it's the last thing I do.
Prometheus shoots down his unit of 3 jetbikes.
Units run for the protection of the wrecked land raider.
Loki then trieds to jaws the riptide....but once again, he denies on a !
Archimedes then move flat-out to protect my last RP, shielding him from both the fire warriors and riptide.
Taudar 4
Spoiler:
Fire warriors advance.
Before the shooting of his entire army....
....and afterwards. The hunters get pinned.
Riptide fires at Loki with his SMS and causes 1W.
Space Wolves 4
Spoiler:
Time for desperation. Archimedes tank shocks the fire warriors and they fall back.
For the last time, my last RP tries to take out his last riptide with Jaws.
Guess what happens? I'll give you a clue....
My plasma-hunter shoots and takes off 1W from the riptide despite being pinned.
F*ck it....for the glory of Fenris!!!
Oh wait, silly me....I can't force weapon him to death because I just used my last warp charge on Jaws.
Taudar 5
Spoiler:
Fire warriors run off the table.
He shoots down my lone plasma-hunter.
He also fires all his SMS at my hunters and bring them down to 2 guys remaining. I pass Morale.
Space Wolves 5
Spoiler:
I run towards my objective.
The game ends.
I've got my objective.
The Tau have got theirs.
Adam also gets First Blood (Land raider Helios) and Warlord for a 5-3 Tau victory.
Wow....I was not expecting that result. Adam was rolling very well in this game. He was rolling high for the most part - in shooting and on penetration, for his Nova-charges, his Deny the Witch and even his Leadership tests and Initiative tests. 4 of my attempts at Jaws got foiled - 3 by his 6+ Deny's and 1 by my own failure to pass my psychic test. I, on the other hand, was rolling slightly below average, especially on my saves. When I was hiding, only his SMS could really get to me and yet I still failed the majority of 3+ saves I had to take. My MEQ's felt more like fire warriors in terms of their saves in this game!
I guess I was a little too focused on his riptides this game, but I still should have been able to take them out if the dice was a little more average. Then again, these things happen. It's a dice game after all and today was just not my day. 1 strategy that I should have explored was to tank-shock his units. I should have just rammed 1 of my LR's down his throat and force his broadsides and fire warriors to take LD after LD tests, especially since he left his Ethereal in reserves. Then again, his army was ultra-effecient in taking out my LR's this game....and he didn't even needed to assault them! It's ironic that his army couldn't kill my wave serpents (in our last game) but here, they handle my LR's with ease.
In any case, we have another game coming up and next time, I will actually bring a more balanced army....if you can call Draigowing more balanced. Lol. Well, either them or my necrons.
This message was edited 12 times. Last update was at 2013/09/21 19:33:45
Paradigm wrote: The key to being able to enjoy the game in real life and also be a member of this online community is to know where you draw the line. What someone online on the other side of the world that you've never met says should never deter you from taking a unit for being either weak or OP. The community is a great place to come for tactics advice, and there is a lot of very sound opinions and idea out there, but at the end of the day, play the game how you want to... Don't worry about the hordes of Dakka descending on your gaming club to arrest you for taking one heldrake or not using a screamerstar. Knowing the standard opinion (and that's all it is) on what is good/bad and conforming to that opinion religiously are two entirely separate things.
2013/09/19 01:05:56
Subject: 1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
jy2 wrote: He goes with the broadsides and should be providing Tank Hunter + Ignore Cover.
Boo! I think he would be much better off going with one of the Riptides...you know, something that can actually kill a Land Raider. If he would go with Riptide + Buff Commander and Riptide + Farseer, I think this would be a more difficult match-up for you.
I think this game might come down to how effective your JoTWW are (keeping in mind they only have a ~38% chance to kill a Riptide). I can't imagine they'll ever get more than a single chance at Jaws - if they get out, they're dead. Then again, he could also try to stay out of Jaws range (31"-36" away from your Land Raiders).
I'm still giving this one to jy2, although I fully expect you to lose 2-3 Land Raiders during the game.
2013/09/19 02:35:04
Subject: 1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
Wow, two Battle Reports so close together? You are spoiling us.
Though Adam has shown the ability to bring down land-raider lists, the parameters of this game are very different. The riptides will find their movements hamstrung by JOTWW and the massed FW and pathfinders will be thunderfired' to death. The Tau list, with TH broadsides and massed HBCs should be able to throw out glances at a reasonable rate, but not nearly fast enough.
I think that the tau should get crunched, barring intervention by the dice gods.
Celesticon 2013 Warhammer 40k Tournament- Best General
Sydney August 2014 Warhammer 40k Tournament-Best General
2013/09/19 02:48:04
Subject: 1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
Jaws is the bane of any MC. And only a 6+ deny the witch means it will probably go off.
6 Broadsides will be working VERY hard to burn down even a single AV14 Land Raider. This is actually why my friend always brings EMP Grenades on his Fire Warriors. The Riptides melee is pretty much the only thing that are gonna hurt those things. And even then, it'll just make it easier for a SWHQ to Jaws him down.
Though I'm not sure if a list like this is going to prepare him for a tournament that well. It's a little... abnormal.
2013/09/19 02:58:12
Subject: 1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
jy2 wrote: He goes with the broadsides and should be providing Tank Hunter + Ignore Cover.
Boo! I think he would be much better off going with one of the Riptides...you know, something that can actually kill a Land Raider. If he would go with Riptide + Buff Commander and Riptide + Farseer, I think this would be a more difficult match-up for you.
I think this game might come down to how effective your JoTWW are (keeping in mind they only have a ~38% chance to kill a Riptide). I can't imagine they'll ever get more than a single chance at Jaws - if they get out, they're dead. Then again, he could also try to stay out of Jaws range (31"-36" away from your Land Raiders).
I'm still giving this one to jy2, although I fully expect you to lose 2-3 Land Raiders during the game.
This was a new build for him and I believe his 1st time running railsides. But it's not a big deal. He's got 3 units of pathfinders taking away my cover and the farseer doling out Prescience and Guide anyways. Moreover, those pathfinders can increase the BS of his tides to BS5 anyways.
The reason why you see the commander attach to a lot of the "tournament" triptide/quad-tide armies is because they don't have markerlights in their armies. That's one thing Adam doesn't have a problem with in his army.
Yeah, once my RP's get out, if they don't pass their Jaws attempt, then I can probably kiss them goodbye.
Though Adam has shown the ability to bring down land-raider lists, the parameters of this game are very different. The riptides will find their movements hamstrung by JOTWW and the massed FW and pathfinders will be thunderfired' to death. The Tau list, with TH broadsides and massed HBCs should be able to throw out glances at a reasonable rate, but not nearly fast enough.
I think that the tau should get crunched, barring intervention by the dice gods.
I actually have a backlog of battle reports that I haven't done yet. Blame it on my ATC batreps which took about 2.5 weeks to complete.
I definitely agree that Tau is the underdog here, though I wouldn't say that they are a huge underdog. My opponent did, after all, take down my triple-heldrake/triple-LR Chaos list....and that was even before he added the broadsides to his list.
ImotekhTheStormlord wrote: Question, was Adam aware of the list he was going to face, or was he blindsided by this little beauty of a metabuster?
To second Trekend, I dont think this game will prepare him very well for a tournament if he makes alterations because of it.
Yeah, he was, actually. I let him know days before our game what I was going to bring. I don't like blind-siding my opponents, at least not intentionally.
And yet, he didn't make any changes to his list to combat my land raiders. I think this will actually be a very good test for him. If he can handle my LR-list, then there isn't anything that his Tau list cannot handle.
Jaws is the bane of any MC. And only a 6+ deny the witch means it will probably go off.
6 Broadsides will be working VERY hard to burn down even a single AV14 Land Raider. This is actually why my friend always brings EMP Grenades on his Fire Warriors. The Riptides melee is pretty much the only thing that are gonna hurt those things. And even then, it'll just make it easier for a SWHQ to Jaws him down.
Though I'm not sure if a list like this is going to prepare him for a tournament that well. It's a little... abnormal.
Ironically, this type of list was actually used in a tournament and he could have very well faced it. It's not a very balanced list, but it does throw a monkey wrench in a lot of the other tournament lists that are out today.
Though the tournament would have to allow Forgeworld for this particular list to be viable.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2013/09/19 04:05:22
ImotekhTheStormlord wrote: Question, was Adam aware of the list he was going to face, or was he blindsided by this little beauty of a metabuster?
To second Trekend, I dont think this game will prepare him very well for a tournament if he makes alterations because of it.
Yeah, he was, actually. I let him know days before our game what I was going to bring. I don't like blind-siding my opponents, at least not intentionally.
And yet, he didn't make any changes to his list to combat my land raiders. I think this will actually be a very good test for him. If he can handle my LR-list, then there isn't anything that his Tau list cannot handle.
Rather sporting of you to share a list built on shock value beforehand. Will be a true test of skill then.
Celesticon 2013 Warhammer 40k Tournament- Best General
Sydney August 2014 Warhammer 40k Tournament-Best General
2013/09/19 12:06:41
Subject: Re:1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
You have ruled this galaxy for ten thousand years
Yet have little of account to show for your efforts
Order. Unity. Obedience.
We taught the galaxy these things
And we shall do so again.
4500 pts
2013/09/19 12:45:28
Subject: 1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
"The enemies of the Emperor fear many things. They fear discovery, defeat, despair, and death. Yet there is one thing they fear above all others. They fear the wrath of the Space Marines!"
7883pts
2000pts
Harlequins 2000pts
Your paints are not thin enough. Needs more wash.
2013/09/19 16:44:37
Subject: Re:1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
Lucarikx wrote: What I'm confused about is why the Tau player didn't put FB on his Riptides, especially when he knew he was going against a 4 LR list.
Lucarikx
Because if he had and he won against jy2 list. Then jy2 could always say he gave him foreknowledge and it negates any merit his victory would be founded on.
Also why would he? That LR list is hardly a "comp" scene meta buster. It funny at low turn out local tournaments where you know all the players armies but It folds like wet paper to larger format lists from demons, Nids, eldar, necrons.....
An aggressive Tau player with attacking Riptides could assault the Raiders, but Jaws discourages that too much. Plus, I anticipate the Tau player refusing to advance and assault just out of habit. Tough match up for the Riptides, they can't keep up.
2013/09/20 02:30:16
Subject: 1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
Even though I was wrong in the last report I think quad raider smokes this tau list. There is nothing he can do to you until you disembark to start jaws'ing riptides.
Can't wait to see how it turns out.
2013/09/20 05:37:21
Subject: Re:1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
Lucarikx wrote: What I'm confused about is why the Tau player didn't put FB on his Riptides, especially when he knew he was going against a 4 LR list.
Lucarikx
Because he didn't want to tailor his list.
Lucarikx wrote: I guess so. However, wouldn't Fusion Blasters still be the better choice, especially on such a durable platform? The amor pen is so much more useful.
Lucarikx
Personally, I actually like the SMS more. Nova-charged means 8 S5 shots that are twin-linked, have better range, ignore cover and doesn't need LOS to shoot.
hippesthippo wrote: When taking BSides, you need to put the Commander there to tank wounds. You can always relocate him if the situation dictates.
Tau lose again. Another poor matchup for Adam. Besides, if he was tired before.. I expect some mistakes.
He's fresh this game.
herpguy wrote: I really don't see how Tau can win this, except if his riptides and broadsides roll a lot of 6s, which I can see happening.
The only way for them to win this is if they roll a little bit above-average (or if I roll poorly). In any case, in any game where a bad matchup exists, the underdog army usually needs to play a mistake-free game and have the dice go his way a little.
jifel wrote: An aggressive Tau player with attacking Riptides could assault the Raiders, but Jaws discourages that too much. Plus, I anticipate the Tau player refusing to advance and assault just out of habit. Tough match up for the Riptides, they can't keep up.
Actually, he's come a long ways since he first played against my necrons. Now, he knows how to play his riptides quite competently....and that is to push them up to threaten the opponent's army as opposed to just leaving them in his deployment zone. That's why he is so much tougher to play against nowadays....he's gotten much, much better with his army (that is, when he isn't so tired like he was in our last game).
hippesthippo wrote: I've seen Adam advance his Riptides, he did it last report.
Which should work, if not for Jaws... Even a Tau player willing to change tactics (which he may be) is going to have major trouble in this match up.
If he's as crafty as me, he should use his riptides to bait my Rune Priests into coming out. He's actually got a 67% chance of surviving (6+ Deny followed by a 50% initiative test) and as long as he leads my RP's in range of his army's guns, he can take them out.
Of course I'll know if he's trying to bait me.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/09/20 06:55:07
Thunderfires rock these days, there is no excuse for marines not to take 2
You have ruled this galaxy for ten thousand years
Yet have little of account to show for your efforts
Order. Unity. Obedience.
We taught the galaxy these things
And we shall do so again.
4500 pts
2013/09/20 13:04:11
Subject: 1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
IMO he should have joined the Farseer to a Riptide and advanced that unit for assault. With Guide's 24 inch range he can still buff the Pathfinders (or whatever the Farseer was doing there) while providing a 4+ Deny the Witch to the Riptide.
I definitely would have rolled everything on the Fate table fishing for Fortune, it allows you to reroll DtW rolls as well as all saves. In this game he'd basically have a 50% chance of creating a Riptide One-Man-Deathstar who laughs off JotWW and doesn't need markerlight support. Not to mention, Doom would be very useful as well (it allows rerolls for Armor Penetration as well as wounds) in this situation of many shooters, few targets.
I think the Farseer would be instrumental in a Tau victory, and seeing it joined to a unit of Pathfinders leaves me doubting their chances :(
2013/09/20 14:34:29
Subject: 1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
Do you guys play that the commander can join riptides? This has come under some debate whether a riptide with no drones can be joined by and IC but such tournaments like the nova say it is okay. The reason I ask is because if the commander can join the riptides then tau has a chance at winning. At the start of the round you nova charge, then in the movement phase move the commander to a riptide who successfully nova'd. With bs5 and the tank hunting commander you will do 12 shots with a .97 chance of hitting, .30 chance of getting a 6 and a .33 chance of penning plus a .33 chance of glancing. So that is 1.17 pens, and anything but crew shaken and weapon destroyed is a pretty good result, .33 chance of exploding isn't that bad and immobilize turn 1 is just as bad as exploding as the hunters and priest will never be able to walk across the board to tau.
On another note, you said that the rune priest has a 50% chance of killing a riptide with jaws, its actually slightly lower when you consider the priest has a .916 chance of casting jaws, the riptide has a .833 chance of not denying the witch and then a .50 chance of dying. So Jaws is only a .38 chance of killing the riptide, still a huge chance but the odds are in the riptides favor and if the riptide does live I don't see the priest and 5 grey hunters living.
2013/09/20 22:11:46
Subject: Re:1850 Quad Pro Quo Space Wolves vs Triptide Tau
herpguy wrote: I didn't realize at first that you were running 2 Achilles. Those thunderfire cannons are going to smoke the tau infantry.
I hope so. I think the Achilles makes a LR-spam list viable.
Valek wrote: Thunderfires rock these days, there is no excuse for marines not to take 2
I especially like them because they let Space Wolves take in TFC's to their armies without the need for space marine allies. And it doesn't hurt that they are on an AV14 monster of a platform.
Lanlaorn wrote: IMO he should have joined the Farseer to a Riptide and advanced that unit for assault. With Guide's 24 inch range he can still buff the Pathfinders (or whatever the Farseer was doing there) while providing a 4+ Deny the Witch to the Riptide.
I definitely would have rolled everything on the Fate table fishing for Fortune, it allows you to reroll DtW rolls as well as all saves. In this game he'd basically have a 50% chance of creating a Riptide One-Man-Deathstar who laughs off JotWW and doesn't need markerlight support. Not to mention, Doom would be very useful as well (it allows rerolls for Armor Penetration as well as wounds) in this situation of many shooters, few targets.
I think the Farseer would be instrumental in a Tau victory, and seeing it joined to a unit of Pathfinders leaves me doubting their chances :(
That is a good combo. However, it isn't as practical in his army because his farseer does not have a jetbike. Thus, he would limit the riptides JSJ maneuver. Of course, he could easily change that by scrounging up 15-pts from elsewhere in his army.
lambsandlions wrote: Do you guys play that the commander can join riptides? This has come under some debate whether a riptide with no drones can be joined by and IC but such tournaments like the nova say it is okay. The reason I ask is because if the commander can join the riptides then tau has a chance at winning. At the start of the round you nova charge, then in the movement phase move the commander to a riptide who successfully nova'd. With bs5 and the tank hunting commander you will do 12 shots with a .97 chance of hitting, .30 chance of getting a 6 and a .33 chance of penning plus a .33 chance of glancing. So that is 1.17 pens, and anything but crew shaken and weapon destroyed is a pretty good result, .33 chance of exploding isn't that bad and immobilize turn 1 is just as bad as exploding as the hunters and priest will never be able to walk across the board to tau.
On another note, you said that the rune priest has a 50% chance of killing a riptide with jaws, its actually slightly lower when you consider the priest has a .916 chance of casting jaws, the riptide has a .833 chance of not denying the witch and then a .50 chance of dying. So Jaws is only a .38 chance of killing the riptide, still a huge chance but the odds are in the riptides favor and if the riptide does live I don't see the priest and 5 grey hunters living.
The Tau players here don't really do that (at least not that I've seen). However, it appears that tournaments seem to allow this. Either ways, it really doesn't matter to me if my opponent wants to ally his IC to a riptide or not.
Good correction on the riptide's survival rate against Jaws. I was making my calculation with the assumption that the RP passed his psychic test, but if you include this psychic test as another variable, you are totally right.