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2014/01/31 14:08:13
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
azreal13 wrote: If anyone from GW with even a modicum of authority is reading, please know that the majority of even your harshest critics would love the opportunity to help if you'd let us.
Based on the ideas i've seen expressed in this forum, the veteran gamer community is financially illiterate and would bankrupt the company in short order.
2014/01/31 14:10:06
Subject: Re:GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
I agree about finding a way to sell off the old metal stock. There's also the potential to recover valuable goodwill. GW loses goodwill by destroying miniatures that will never exist again. It just does. Whatever the financial reasons, it further tarnishes GW's brand.
GW could possibly have boosted the luxury status of its brand by selling off "old" and "obsolete" models at fire sale prices, perhaps in grab bag bundles. Get people buying from the GW webstore again, get people saying something GOOD about GW for once, bring a little money in the door. And who is going to nostalgically buy a decade old miniature? Your veteran customers, possibly those that have stopped purchasing from GW entirely. "Last Chance to Buy" would be a strong motivator to make sales, especially if that carrot was followed by the stick of having a set date to destroy the stock and sell it for scrap. 'We're clearing out all metal stock to make room for more new, modern, professionally designed miniatures from all of the ranges we don't seem like we are supporting right now. This stuff is going to go to the scrap yard by X date, but until then you can buy it!'
Pair that with WD weekly mags that reprint old articles! Get some use out of them. Reprint articles about those models. Reprint the old marketing photos. Reprint old bat reps with those models. Reprint articles about using those models for conversions. Write NEW articles about chopping up those old models to make sweet conversions with your NEW models! Revise the Necromunda and Mordheim rules into a trim little version and PUT THEM IN WD WEEKLY along with adds for bundles that let you buy 5 whole gangs/warbands for $50. Get people excited about GW, even if it is them being excited about the OLD GW. Reuse old material, make fans HAPPY for once.
Hell, GW could have gone whole hog and done a week or two week long GW Retro campaign. Put a new skin on the webstore, do some interviews about the old days with employees and former employees that still like you for some reason, push all of that old metal stock hard, time it with some sort of anniversary (you can find one - Hell, use Jes Goodwins birthday if you have to). Do it for two weeks and let everyone know that at the end of that two week party, GW is putting all of those old models into the smelter and selling them for scrap, never to be seen again.
Missed. Opportunity.
Instead GW gets more ho-humming about its myopic and fan-unfriendly policies.
This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2014/01/31 14:20:55
Kirasu: Have we fallen so far that we are excited that GW is giving us the opportunity to spend 58$ for JUST the rules? Surprised it's not "Dataslate: Assault Phase"
AlexHolker: "The power loader is a forklift. The public doesn't complain about a forklift not having frontal armour protecting the crew compartment because the only enemy it is designed to face is the OHSA violation."
AlexHolker: "Allow me to put it this way: Paramount is Skynet, reboots are termination attempts, and your childhood is John Connor."
2014/01/31 14:47:09
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
azreal13 wrote: If anyone from GW with even a modicum of authority is reading, please know that the majority of even your harshest critics would love the opportunity to help if you'd let us.
Based on the ideas i've seen expressed in this forum, the veteran gamer community is financially illiterate and would bankrupt the company in short order.
Well, I've seen you base your arguments on the economic performance of only one territory GW operate in, dismiss evidence out of hand because "the man" lies, and try and link a direct reaction in share price to a poor set of results to broader economic trends in China, so unless you're including yourself in that, I'd put those stones down chap, or you'll damage your house.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
azreal13 wrote: If anyone from GW with even a modicum of authority is reading, please know that the majority of even your harshest critics would love the opportunity to help if you'd let us.
Based on the ideas i've seen expressed in this forum, the veteran gamer community is financially illiterate and would bankrupt the company in short order.
Financially Illiterate? Surely you can find a better mishmash of words to toss around to express your disdain for everyone else
....and lo!.....The Age of Sigmar came to an end when Saint Veetock and his hamster legions smote the false Sigmar and destroyed the bubbleverse and lead the true believers back to the Old World.
2014/01/31 15:22:32
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
azreal13 wrote: If anyone from GW with even a modicum of authority is reading, please know that the majority of even your harshest critics would love the opportunity to help if you'd let us.
Based on the ideas i've seen expressed in this forum, the veteran gamer community is financially illiterate and would bankrupt the company in short order.
Well, I've seen you base your arguments on the economic performance of only one territory GW operate in, dismiss evidence out of hand because "the man" lies, and try and link a direct reaction in share price to a poor set of results to broader economic trends in China, so unless you're including yourself in that, I'd put those stones down chap, or you'll damage your house.
I said, the economy is rolling over was the reason why revenues were down and we should continue to see that trend in retail. Amazon, Walmart and Google all had crap earnings released since I made those statements.
Management needs to continue cutting costs and weather the storm. Companies go under because they don't know which way the wind blows and where we are in the cycle. Markets are stretched to the upside at the moment and emerging markets are starting to show signs of trouble.
mikhaila wrote: Financially Illiterate? Surely you can find a better mishmash of words to toss around to express your disdain for everyone else
Disdain? Nah.. I just think it's painfully obvious that no one here has an accounting or portfolio management background yet they are speaking as if they are experts. I've worked for global macro funds, ETFs and Hedgefunds for over a decade and seeing my expertise dismissed in the manner it has been is humorous. Since the markets are starting to give up the ghost, this discussion is becoming increasingly more silly.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/01/31 15:23:10
2014/01/31 15:39:54
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
I think the reason your 'expertise' is being dismissed, as you put it, and incidentally, this is the first time I've seen you offer any sort of indication as to your credentials, from your previous posts and 'that' thread in discussions I'd assumed you were some sort of economics student, is because you're arguing very broad trends, but simultaneously failing to address the micro economic factors that specifically affect GW and the sector they're operating in.
GW themselves claim to be a recession proof business. Despite the somewhat questionable accuracy of the sources, I've not seen one person in a position to have a decent idea claim that the tabletop hobby is in decline, and many claiming the contrary.
To paraphrase something i said earlier, "if everyone is struggling, it's the economy, if you're the only one, it's you"
How do you reconcile the generally bullish attitude towards tabletop gaming right now, the solid, albeit anecdotal, evidence that people are still spending money on products at least at the same levels as a year ago, and the fall in revenue that is apparently only confined to GW?
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
azreal13 wrote: If anyone from GW with even a modicum of authority is reading, please know that the majority of even your harshest critics would love the opportunity to help if you'd let us.
Based on the ideas i've seen expressed in this forum, the veteran gamer community is financially illiterate and would bankrupt the company in short order.
Well, I've seen you base your arguments on the economic performance of only one territory GW operate in, dismiss evidence out of hand because "the man" lies, and try and link a direct reaction in share price to a poor set of results to broader economic trends in China, so unless you're including yourself in that, I'd put those stones down chap, or you'll damage your house.
I said, the economy is rolling over was the reason why revenues were down and we should continue to see that trend in retail. Amazon, Walmart and Google all had crap earnings released since I made those statements.
Now I'm not an economist, but I see 3 things from that report that don't seem to agree with you.
1. Those markets are down under 1%, so GW's drop of 24% is well out of the median.
2. It puts a lot of that down to people dropping investments in risky currencies like the "Turkish lira, South African rand, Russian ruble", none of which would affect GW stock.
3. It says that consumer spending rose:
Elsewhere, the Commerce Department reports consumer spending rose 0.4% in December, slightly above expectations of 0.2%, while personal income remained unchanged from November. Economists expected personal income to rise 0.2%.
None of those things make the concerns from GW's report (sales are down, profit is down, they don't have a plan) look like a theme across the markets, and show the markets (and retail) to be in a better position than GW reports, so their problems must come from somewhere else.
2014/01/31 16:04:54
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
One of the things that makes GW difficult to compare to other wargame and table top game companies is that most such companies are not stupid enough to offer public stock.
I believe that none of the myriad companies started by ex-GW folk have gone public.
And there is a reason for this.
Opening a public offering gives an influx of the ready, at a crippling loss of control.
So, most tabletop game companies prefer taking the slow route.
They do not get that rush of cash, and grow more slowly - but do not need to answer to stockholders, and do not have to worry about how the public stock is moving around.
And because the shares are closely held it is easy enough to get rid of a Kirby before he does too much damage.
The Auld Grump
Kilkrazy wrote:When I was a young boy all my wargames were narratively based because I played with my toy soldiers and vehicles without the use of any rules.
The reason I bought rules and became a real wargamer was because I wanted a properly thought out structure to govern the action instead of just making things up as I went along.
2014/01/31 16:11:16
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
Wales: Where the Men are Men and the sheep are Scared.
Hell even offering the a random metal miniature free every order over a set price lets say 50 or 100 on the website would have been a bonus to them. Would have got a few people who are going to buy say 90 worth of stuff adding a little extra to their order.
Or they could have offered certain miniature saveable to be added to your basket at 50% off when you spend over x amount. There are so many things they could do with their metal stock to gain some money from it and gain some good will.
2014/01/31 17:16:39
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
azreal13 wrote: I think the reason your 'expertise' is being dismissed, as you put it, and incidentally, this is the first time I've seen you offer any sort of indication as to your credentials, from your previous posts and 'that' thread in discussions I'd assumed you were some sort of economics student, is because you're arguing very broad trends, but simultaneously failing to address the micro economic factors that specifically affect GW and the sector they're operating in.
The macro trends take precedent over all else. I don't want to miss the forest for the trees so to speak. Back in 2007-2008, should have shown everyone quite clearly that economic downturns impact everyone. People who put money to work in 2007 wish they had waited till 2009 where they could have had more favorable terms. IMO.. they would be better suited waiting till 2016 to being doing any sort of expansion.
azreal13 wrote: GW themselves claim to be a recession proof business. Despite the somewhat questionable accuracy of the sources, I've not seen one person in a position to have a decent idea claim that the tabletop hobby is in decline, and many claiming the contrary.
I never said table top gaming was in decline but that doesn't mean that you can't have a cyclical bear market that wipes out quite a few companies.
azreal13 wrote: How do you reconcile the generally bullish attitude towards tabletop gaming right now, the solid, albeit anecdotal, evidence that people are still spending money on products at least at the same levels as a year ago, and the fall in revenue that is apparently only confined to GW?
Sentiment is too bullish and the consensus is usually wrong. Consensus wasn't right for internet stocks in 2000 and housing in 2007 either. Once everyone agrees, it's likely a good time to disagree.
You say that not all retailers are doing poorly based on numbers you are seeing reported in your country but retailers like AMZN, WMT, BBY and numerous others are showing real problems. It's NOT just a GW specific problem and these retailers aren't recession proof. I previously pointed out that GW's stock price has a very similar pattern of boom/bust as the S&P but usually leads the SPY because it is much more sensitive to the consumer tightening their belts. When a consumer is having money trouble, they cut back on eating out and leisure 1st. They don't sell their home.
I also would caution on just looking at top line revenue because that can be misleading. You need a trained eye to read financial reports. Companies play games with their numbers (recognize revenue early etc) in order to meet their quarterly numbers. I'd recommend reading "what's behind the numbers?" by John Del Vecchio to get an idea of how to look at the game corporations play. It's a short read but it shows exactly how to read a quarterly report like a forensic account would. If you plan on ever being involved in the stock market, i highly recommend it. It was a McGraw Hill best seller last year.
Now I'm not an economist, but I see 3 things from that report that don't seem to agree with you.
1. Those markets are down under 1%, so GW's drop of 24% is well out of the median.
2. It puts a lot of that down to people dropping investments in risky currencies like the "Turkish lira, South African rand, Russian ruble", none of which would affect GW stock.
3. It says that consumer spending rose:
Elsewhere, the Commerce Department reports consumer spending rose 0.4% in December, slightly above expectations of 0.2%, while personal income remained unchanged from November. Economists expected personal income to rise 0.2%.
None of those things make the concerns from GW's report (sales are down, profit is down, they don't have a plan) look like a theme across the markets, and show the markets (and retail) to be in a better position than GW reports, so their problems must come from somewhere else.
1. I was pointing to the retailers blowing up.. BBY has been cut in half since thanksgiving.. AMZN is down 10% on their earnings today. GW is just a canary in the coal mine as far as i'm concerned. We are going to have a 20% correction in the general market at some point here soon. It's necessary and unavoidable. It's how markets operate.
2. Margin debt makes it so it does impact the stock price of all securities. Right now we are at an extreme..What we saw in 2000 and 2007 was forced selling due to too much leverage in the system. If anything goes wrong, you will see that again. IMHO.. 4 sigma moves in currencies can and will cause ripples into other markets that can force people to unwind positions without regard to price.
3. The economic numbers you are looking at are "seasonally" adjusted by the BLS. They aren't economists btw..
2014/01/31 17:25:41
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
azreal13 wrote: I think the reason your 'expertise' is being dismissed, as you put it, and incidentally, this is the first time I've seen you offer any sort of indication as to your credentials, from your previous posts and 'that' thread in discussions I'd assumed you were some sort of economics student, is because you're arguing very broad trends, but simultaneously failing to address the micro economic factors that specifically affect GW and the sector they're operating in.
The macro trends take precedent over all else. I don't want to miss the forest for the trees so to speak. Back in 2007-2008, should have shown everyone quite clearly that economic downturns impact everyone. People who put money to work in 2007 wish they had waited till 2009 where they could have had more favorable terms. IMO.. they would be better suited waiting till 2016 to being doing any sort of expansion.
azreal13 wrote: GW themselves claim to be a recession proof business. Despite the somewhat questionable accuracy of the sources, I've not seen one person in a position to have a decent idea claim that the tabletop hobby is in decline, and many claiming the contrary.
I never said table top gaming was in decline but that doesn't mean that you can't have a cyclical bear market that wipes out quite a few companies.
azreal13 wrote: How do you reconcile the generally bullish attitude towards tabletop gaming right now, the solid, albeit anecdotal, evidence that people are still spending money on products at least at the same levels as a year ago, and the fall in revenue that is apparently only confined to GW?
Sentiment is too bullish and the consensus is usually wrong. Consensus wasn't right for internet stocks in 2000 and housing in 2007 either. Once everyone agrees, it's likely a good time to disagree.
You say that not all retailers are doing poorly based on numbers you are seeing reported in your country but retailers like AMZN, WMT, BBY and numerous others are showing real problems. It's NOT just a GW specific problem and these retailers aren't recession proof. I previously pointed out that GW's stock price has a very similar pattern of boom/bust as the S&P but usually leads the SPY because it is much more sensitive to the consumer tightening their belts. When a consumer is having money trouble, they cut back on eating out and leisure 1st. They don't sell their home.
I also would caution on just looking at top line revenue because that can be misleading. You need a trained eye to read financial reports. Companies play games with their numbers (recognize revenue early etc) in order to meet their quarterly numbers. I'd recommend reading "what's behind the numbers?" by John Del Vecchio to get an idea of how to look at the game corporations play. It's a short read but it shows exactly how to read a quarterly report like a forensic account would. If you plan on ever being involved in the stock market, i highly recommend it. It was a McGraw Hill best seller last year.
Now I'm not an economist, but I see 3 things from that report that don't seem to agree with you.
1. Those markets are down under 1%, so GW's drop of 24% is well out of the median.
2. It puts a lot of that down to people dropping investments in risky currencies like the "Turkish lira, South African rand, Russian ruble", none of which would affect GW stock.
3. It says that consumer spending rose:
Elsewhere, the Commerce Department reports consumer spending rose 0.4% in December, slightly above expectations of 0.2%, while personal income remained unchanged from November. Economists expected personal income to rise 0.2%.
None of those things make the concerns from GW's report (sales are down, profit is down, they don't have a plan) look like a theme across the markets, and show the markets (and retail) to be in a better position than GW reports, so their problems must come from somewhere else.
1. I was pointing to the retailers blowing up.. BBY has been cut in half since thanksgiving.. AMZN is down 10% on their earnings today. GW is just a canary in the coal mine as far as i'm concerned. We are going to have a 20% correction in the general market at some point here soon. It's necessary and unavoidable. It's how markets operate.
2. Margin debt makes it so it does impact the stock price of all securities. Right now we are at an extreme..What we saw in 2000 and 2007 was forced selling due to too much leverage in the system. If anything goes wrong, you will see that again. IMHO.. 4 sigma moves in currencies can and will cause ripples into other markets that can force people to unwind positions without regard to price.
3. The economic numbers you are looking at are "seasonally" adjusted by the BLS. They aren't economists btw..
An interesting, and very plausible, take on the situation.
I'd still take issue with the fact you are using examples of very different companies who, with the exception of Amazon, operate very heavily in the North American economy and will be subject to very different market forces than GW, who claim to be global, but, let's face it, are a UK company with some foreign satellites.
I also still cannot see past the fact that there is so much indication, both in my own spending, other hobbyists I know, people posting here and other sources suggesting people are still spending the same on the hobby, just not with GW, to discount that as a major component either, but I guess another financial report or two will give us a clearer picture.
EDIT
I just remembered that Walmart own Asda, one of the largest supermarket chains in the UK, so when the figures are released in a few weeks that will probably provide an interesting and roughly analogous comparison.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/01/31 17:50:18
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Anyway here is the interesting part, those are GW France revenues in € (not in £ as I brainlessly assumed first) from June to June each year, the second number is the profit:
2012: 13.532.200€ / 365.600€
2004: 27.650.000€ / 3.500.000€
So comparing 2004 to 2011, we get sales down by 50% and profits down by nearly 90%.
Something is definitely wrong...
T
2014/01/31 17:55:12
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
Anyway here is the interesting part, those are GW France revenues in € (not in £ as I brainlessly assumed first) from June to June each year, the second number is the profit:
2012: 13.532.200€ / 365.600€
2004: 27.650.000€ / 3.500.000€
So comparing 2004 to 2011, we get sales down by 50% and profits down by nearly 90%.
Something is definitely wrong...
T
Not necessarily.
One could easily argue that 2004 is artificially inflated by LOTR stuff, and setting an artificially high tide mark, plus when a company is operating across multiple territories, where the money is actually made is rather a fluid concept. For instance, Amazon makes no money in the UK, as it processes it's orders through its Eire offices in order to take advantage of a lower rate of corporation tax. Massive bone of contention here currently, but there's no reason to think that GW couldn't be manipulating the accounts in a similar way.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Barely any shares traded, price closed the same as at opening.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Anyway here is the interesting part, those are GW France revenues in € (not in £ as I brainlessly assumed first) from June to June each year, the second number is the profit:
2012: 13.532.200€ / 365.600€
2004: 27.650.000€ / 3.500.000€
So comparing 2004 to 2011, we get sales down by 50% and profits down by nearly 90%.
Something is definitely wrong...
T
Not necessarily.
One could easily argue that 2004 is artificially inflated by LOTR stuff, and setting an artificially high tide mark, plus when a company is operating across multiple territories, where the money is actually made is rather a fluid concept. For instance, Amazon makes no money in the UK, as it processes it's orders through its Eire offices in order to take advantage of a lower rate of corporation tax. Massive bone of contention here currently, but there's no reason to think that GW couldn't be manipulating the accounts in a similar way.
LOTR was huge then. I was selling 8 core sets of LOTR per week at the peak. Right now I am quite happy to sell 4 40k starter sets in a month.
....and lo!.....The Age of Sigmar came to an end when Saint Veetock and his hamster legions smote the false Sigmar and destroyed the bubbleverse and lead the true believers back to the Old World.
2014/02/01 01:09:10
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
dereksatkinson wrote:I've worked for global macro funds, ETFs and Hedgefunds for over a decade and seeing my expertise dismissed in the manner it has been is humorous.
Yeah, who is better qualified to tell us how to run a gaming company than a hedgefond manager? Here have a look, how a competitor was brought down by the same macro economic trends:
WayneTheGame wrote:So did anything else happen with GW shares?
Normal day: 170 shares bought, 5,639 shares sold.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/01 01:12:42
EDIT
I just remembered that Walmart own Asda, one of the largest supermarket chains in the UK, so when the figures are released in a few weeks that will probably provide an interesting and roughly analogous comparison.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/01 02:40:59
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
2014/02/01 02:39:01
Subject: Re:GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
EDIT
I just remembered that Walmart own Asda, one of the largest supermarket chains in the UK, so when the figures are released in a few weeks that will probably provide an interesting and roughly analogous comparison.
I meant it will be interesting to compare Asda's results in the UK to see if they, operating in an apparently more rapidly recovering economy, buck the trend to Walmart's overall. We should see some separate figures for Asda when Walmart report theirs.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
heartserenade wrote: I know Infinity is growing but I didn't know it was that much!
Without numbers, that chart means nothing.
I can sell 1 of my £1 thing this year, and next year sell 30.
That's growth of 3000%, but still feth all money.
I happen to think this is a positive, and a good indicator of where the money people aren't spending with GW is going, at least in part, but without any sort of turnover/profit figures, it's just a vanity piece.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/01 02:50:18
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Here have a look, how a competitor was brought down by the same macro economic trends
You obviously didn't read or understand what I wrote.
azreal13 wrote: I meant it will be interesting to compare Asda's results in the UK to see if they, operating in an apparently more rapidly recovering economy, buck the trend to Walmart's overall. We should see some separate figures for Asda when Walmart report theirs.
Well.. I think it's pretty unlikely that if America, China and the rest of the EU are struggling that the UK will be fine. Here is what some of the world's largest CEOs have to say about the current environment..
P&G [PG] Earnings Call 1/24/13: “We continue to operate in a volatile environment with uncertainty in foreign exchange, some deceleration in market growth rates and a rapidly developing policy environment.”
Apple [AAPL] Earnings Call 1/27/13: “We expect four factors to negatively impact the year-over-year revenue comparison by over $2 billion. These are channel inventory increases in the year-ago quarter that we don’t expect to repeat, lower iPod sales, a stronger U.S. dollar against a number of currencies, particularly the yen and the Australian dollar and the higher per unit deferral for Mac and iOS devices.”
Starbucks [SBUX] Earnings Call 1/23/13: “Over the last month or so, I have heard many traditional brick-and-mortar retailers attribute the downturn in their core business during holiday to factors such as a shortened holiday shopping season, a weakened consumer, the U.S. Government shutdown, and poor weather. Respectfully, those explanations ignore a larger fundamental truth and that truth is that traditional brick-and-mortar retailing is at an inflection point. No longer are many retailers only required to compete with stores on the other side of the street. They are now required to compete with stores on the other side of the country.”
Southwest Airlines [LUV] Earnings Call 1/23/13: “Our outlook right now for the economy is very stable. Hopefully, the uncertainties that we had a year ago, hopefully they won’t return. And that would be, obviously, a real good thing. And then fuel prices have been remarkably stable for now three quarters in a row. And at least our outlook, as it stands today, is for yet another quarter of stability there.”
Ethan Allen Interiors [ETH] Earnings Call 1/23/13: “We had sunshine in sunshine states. We had good businesses in California and Florida. And in fact, what happened was that October, this government shutdown did have a major impact on us. We were down 10.5 percent in October. November was somewhat better. We are up 3.6 percent and then the bad weather affected us in December and we are down 2.6 percent.”
McDonald’s [MCD] Earnings Call 1/23/13: “2013 was a difficult year and we’re keenly aware of our short-term challenges. Future economic predictions are mixed, but most assume some limited global improvement in 2014. However, we don’t expect significant changes in market dynamics, given modest growth projections for the IEO industry. Looking to January, global comparable sales are expected to be relatively flat.”
Caterpillar [CAT] Earnings Call 1/27/13: “In most regions, particularly in North America, economically we think a little better, a little better GDP around the world will help that as well. We’ve also seen actually our sales in China Construction improve as well. And it’s probably worth noting that for Construction, we still had a headwind in the fourth quarter on dealer inventory.”
Stanley Black & Decker [SWK] Earnings Call 1/24/13: “The currency trend versus the U.S. dollar for really the four major currencies that tend to have a significant impact on us. The first three have historically had a large impact on us since the merger; the European euro, the Canadian dollar, and the Brazilian real. The Argentinean peso has become more challenging over the last few years as that country continues to see governmental challenges and economic issues.”
2014/02/01 04:05:22
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
heartserenade wrote: I know Infinity is growing but I didn't know it was that much!
Without numbers, that chart means nothing.
I can sell 1 of my £1 thing this year, and next year sell 30.
That's growth of 3000%, but still feth all money.
I happen to think this is a positive, and a good indicator of where the money people aren't spending with GW is going, at least in part, but without any sort of turnover/profit figures, it's just a vanity piece.
We have a bit of an idea on Infinity...2011 they posted revenues of $888K, 2010 was $502K. The chart doesnt mention if it is growth in sales or growth in units sold (or even growth in number of mice caught by the office cat). I seem to recall it being growth in units sold though based on someone who was at the GenCon presentation.
Even with the 2012 growth figured in, they are down at the 1% or so range of GW for revenue. However, they are growing as opposed to shrinking. Almost all their sales will be through distribution (so although the revenue is lower, they will move more units for that same dollar compared to GW who makes 55-60% of their sales direct). They also dont have to sell as much per person to get a new player up to speed. This helps growth by reducing that cost of entry.
Of course, there will be those who look at that as evidence that GW is just fine. They are only 1% after all. But you also have things like Wyrd, Anima, Warmachine, X Wing, Dust, Dystopion Legions, Mercs, Relic Knights, Spinespur, Warpath...not to mention dozens of other games which have been pushing into areas that GW has long held firm.
GW is playing the part of the oaf standing on the hornets nest too dumb and stubborn to move. They swat wildly at what they think is biting at them (CHS and Spots the Space Marine as two recent high profile examples), all the while missing the competition that will sting them to death.
2014/02/01 04:29:25
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
I can sell 1 of my £1 thing this year, and next year sell 30.
That's growth of 3000%, but still feth all money.
I happen to think this is a positive, and a good indicator of where the money people aren't spending with GW is going, at least in part, but without any sort of turnover/profit figures, it's just a vanity piece.
Agreed.
Isn't Corvus Belli like 1/100th of the size of GW at this point? That's like saying a local coffee shop is growing at a faster pace than starbucks because it has 17 customers instead of 10.. 70% growth bitches!
Of course, there will be those who look at that as evidence that GW is just fine. They are only 1% after all. But you also have things like Wyrd, Anima, Warmachine, X Wing, Dust, Dystopion Legions, Mercs, Relic Knights, Spinespur, Warpath...not to mention dozens of other games which have been pushing into areas that GW has long held firm.
there are next to no barriers to entry. The fact that these gaming companies exist really doesn't matter. They need to survive a downturn which they might not have the capital to do. Especially if they are choosing now to expand.
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2014/02/01 08:59:56
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
You can spin it as you like to make GW seem invincible without any problems and the competition as ephemeral whispers that will vanish in the wind.
The hard fact is this is not the case, the competition exists and from the ones I know and the ones I had the pleasure of talking with, they are quite reasonable in their moves and quite cautious on not overextending themselves.
The wargaming hobby as a market is expanding and GWs hold of it is shrinking, you can summon whatever numbers you feel free to justify your point of view, they will seem impressive I guess, however they will not reflect reality, more or less the same as the assumptions of GW's HQ.
Now since you brought CB in, they have happily expanded to 28 employs while Spain is in the state they are in, they have no debts and experience growth, when I was at GenCon I heard quite a few game store owners who commented on cutting their GW wall and bringing Infinity in its position.
This illustrates what GW has already reported, their stance with independents makes them the first choice to cut, none mentioned PP or wyrd or somebody else all mentioned GW, I am sure if 40k most and the other two systems in a more secondary way were not as widespread and established in their era of isolation GWs state especially with their attitude towards everybody would be quite worse.
2014/02/01 09:06:49
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
Isn't Corvus Belli like 1/100th of the size of GW at this point? That's like saying a local coffee shop is growing at a faster pace than starbucks because it has 17 customers instead of 10.. 70% growth bitches!
I think they have more than 17 customers, bud! On a global scale, the player base is small, but growing. It's got that 'word of mouth' thing going for it.
Size wise, it's a small company. I remember an interview with its owner on a forum as to how they'd come up with the game, and he mentioned they went from pretty much nothing to iirc 27 people working. Don't know if that number is 'right', or if it is, if it includes part timers or external contractors on the books. Gw have a few thousand employees.
They're minnows, but they seem to be punching above their weight. Just goes to show though, you don't need to be a huge company to be successful.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/01 09:07:41
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2014/02/01 09:10:57
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
But how many do they have if you don't count their retail employees?
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
2014/02/01 09:23:27
Subject: GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
azreal13 wrote:I also still cannot see past the fact that there is so much indication, both in my own spending, other hobbyists I know, people posting here and other sources suggesting people are still spending the same on the hobby, just not with GW, to discount that as a major component either, but I guess another financial report or two will give us a clearer picture.
For what it's worth, since you're gathering anecdotal evidence, as a tournament player who knows dozens of active players, I don't currently know anyone who has replaced their GW spending with other model spending. People that I know are simply not buying new armies at all, and in many cases have stopped playing with the existing ones too in favour of spending their free time with video games like Hearthstone etc. Certainly is noone spending their GW money to buy models from other companies. The wargaming in my neck of the woods is quite strictly about GW.
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2014/02/01 09:45:51
Subject: Re:GW half-year financials published - Reboot thread -
I expect that this graph has already been posted and discussed but it bears repeating:
This says to me that money being spent on wargaming is by no means slowing down and that wargaming in general is increasing in size as a market. It also tallies with other anecdotal evidence from ICV2 and store owners that the wargaming market is healthy. If GW sales are down in the context of these results, then that most definitely does suggest to me that people are taking their $ elsewhere.
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