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So this morning I had a bit of an epiphany that I actually am starting to root for GW's current approach. Here's why.

I've been on these forums a lot lately, arguing for things like balance and better price/value ratio from 40k. What I've found is that there's just a contingent of people who, no matter what, will appear to defend anything GW does tooth and nail, and go to tremendous length to logically justify their position.

That used to annoy me, but what I realized this morning is that I don't really have a horse in the race anymore; all my 40k stuff has either already been eBayed or will be shortly, and I'm not really planning on getting back into it now that I've tried some other games. Therefore, while I've concluded that I would never run a business like GW in the same manner as they seem to run themselves, I'm actually starting to cheer for them to keep doing it, for these reasons:

1. I want to see how far they can take this business model.

I want to see if they can put out a new edition every year or every other year, charge $150 a pop for the regular release, and get somewhere around $600-$1000 for a limited edition, and actually still have people buy it and rabidly defend it. Codices: $100. Space marines: $20 apiece. Tanks: $125. I want to see how long they can actually stay in business by doing that, and I think that once they do finally fail, the postmortem analysis will be fantastic and insightful.

2. I think it's actually good for a lot of FLGSs.

I was in a well-established FLGS the other day, talking to one of the staffers there, and we noted that the new raptors box that just came in was $3 more than the one sitting on the shelf. The only difference between these two kits is new box art. I said, "Wow, really?" and he replied, "Yup, it's Games Workshop. If they can do it, God bless 'em," and just sort of sighed and smiled at the same time. What I realized at that moment is that 40% (or whatever his cut is) of that $3 goes into his pocket. So while he feels some remorse that his customers aren't getting as much value as he'd like, he also realizes that the price hikes help his bottom line out a bit as well.

3. I think it's good for the industry as a whole.

To me, I see a 40k as a game that's basically hemorrhaging players while not bringing in many new ones due to the high cost of entry. I think this creates a space for new games to grow to fill that void, but it can happen slowly instead of GW suddenly failing and creating a vacuum. That allows other companies to slowly grow, compete, and gradually improve their player base and product, rather than have to rush to grow too quickly. I think this could lead to a new "golden age of gaming" where, instead of one company being almost the entire hobby, we see a huge variety of great games from great companies at a great price. I think we are on the verge of that now, these smaller companies just need to get a little stronger foothold in markets across the world.



So, that's my stance. Posting this is somewhat cathartic, and beyond that this is to appeal to others that have been having similar, red-hot arguments all over this board and just say: let them go. Walk away from GW and its fanbase and let's focus on positivity and growing other games in the hobby. For me, I already know what game I'm going to be focused on in the near future, but if I see you at a gaming store, feel free to introduce me to something new.

I'm in kind of the opposite corner. I'd hate to see GW fail, because the one staple of my gaming history is that I could get my army and head down to the FLGS and be sure there's someone else there with an army. Try that with any of the other games available now. Infinity? Malifaux? Warmahordes? Hit or miss. There may.. or may not... be someone else there to play. WFB? 40K? It's almost a certainty that someone else will be there to play... and quite likely more than one.

Not that I particularly like what GW has done the past several cycles, nor do I defend their flagrantly corporate raider business habits. I'd just hate to see them fall, and take with them the biggest game community in the world.

 Vulcan wrote:
I'm in kind of the opposite corner. I'd hate to see GW fail, because the one staple of my gaming history is that I could get my army and head down to the FLGS and be sure there's someone else there with an army. Try that with any of the other games available now. Infinity? Malifaux? Warmahordes? Hit or miss. There may.. or may not... be someone else there to play. WFB? 40K? It's almost a certainty that someone else will be there to play... and quite likely more than one.

That may be how it is for you but that is definitely not the norm everywhere

 Gentleman_Jellyfish wrote:

 Vulcan wrote:
I'm in kind of the opposite corner. I'd hate to see GW fail, because the one staple of my gaming history is that I could get my army and head down to the FLGS and be sure there's someone else there with an army. Try that with any of the other games available now. Infinity? Malifaux? Warmahordes? Hit or miss. There may.. or may not... be someone else there to play. WFB? 40K? It's almost a certainty that someone else will be there to play... and quite likely more than one.

That may be how it is for you but that is definitely not the norm everywhere

Sort of a little secret...someone always has to make the first step.

If you play at a local store, buy yourself a starter or two from a game that interests you (and by starter - I mean the fairly balanced X vs Y deals most companies offer). Paint up the army, learn the rules, then head on over to the store on open game nights. Most people are open to try a new game - especially when you have two painted armies for them to choose from to play with. Repeat for a few weeks. Gamers with their own armies for any given system will sprout like weeds. In a few months time - you will be able to pick up a random game or quite likely see the store move to support your efforts by scheduling Infinity nights to help encourage the sales.

It isn't really a significant investment for most systems, and I have yet to see that simple technique fail. You can normally even get with the manufacturer/publisher to get discounts or other perks for your efforts. Back when GW cared about growing their system - that is what they did.

I've been trying very hard to get that system to work Sean, I may give it a shot this friday at game night. I might be able to make something happen.

 slowthar wrote:


So, that's my stance. Posting this is somewhat cathartic, and beyond that this is to appeal to others that have been having similar, red-hot arguments all over this board and just say: let them go. Walk away from GW and its fanbase and let's focus on positivity and growing other games in the hobby. For me, I already know what game I'm going to be focused on in the near future, but if I see you at a gaming store, feel free to introduce me to something new.

I think that part of this last bit is the most important, and sometimes gets lost: staying positive and maintaining an attitude of "I'd love to see what other games are out there" even if you only try a game once.

 slowthar wrote:
I was in a well-established FLGS the other day, talking to one of the staffers there, and we noted that the new raptors box that just came in was $3 more than the one sitting on the shelf. The only difference between these two kits is new box art. I said, "Wow, really?" and he replied, "Yup, it's Games Workshop. If they can do it, God bless 'em," and just sort of sighed and smiled at the same time. What I realized at that moment is that 40% (or whatever his cut is) of that $3 goes into his pocket. So while he feels some remorse that his customers aren't getting as much value as he'd like, he also realizes that the price hikes help his bottom line out a bit as well.

I'd just like to point out that this only works if you assume that each customer has a fixed list of products to buy instead of a fixed amount of money to spend. If most customers do have a budget then raising prices doesn't help, the customer is still spending the same amount of money and the store is still getting the same 40% of that money. In fact the price increases hurt, since they increase the chance that the customer will stop seeing the products as a good value and stop buying entirely.

Biggest problem with up and leaving GW, is not that there is better products, but the availability of competing products and places to play those products are not available in my area. I've only seen a few boxes for Kings of War, Warmachine, and the X-wing mini set, but no one plays it, and the boxes I've seen have been sitting there for 4 or more months. Years in the case of Warmachine.

In my club, I was the ONLY one who played infinity three years ago. I had another club I could go to where I played, and it was never in opposition to my club (ran on one Saturday a month whereas we run on Sundays), so it wasn't a big deal for me.

Now, 6 out of the 8 regular members have taken it up. We used to be a pretty hard core GW only crowd. When we had a regime change, alternative games came in (one of those people in the former regime was of the "GW make the BESTEST miniatures, evah" belief and would not be swayed (despite how wrong he was).

We now have Distopian Wars and Infinity played alongside 40k and WHFB and the odd game of Spinespur.
Patience and perseverance will see you through. I didn't push - I showed them a demo if they expressed interest.

Two starters and a slowly does it approach can work. At least here. Aussies really don't care for the in-your-face-hardsell that the US tends to go for.

 Peregrine wrote:

 slowthar wrote:
I was in a well-established FLGS the other day, talking to one of the staffers there, and we noted that the new raptors box that just came in was $3 more than the one sitting on the shelf. The only difference between these two kits is new box art. I said, "Wow, really?" and he replied, "Yup, it's Games Workshop. If they can do it, God bless 'em," and just sort of sighed and smiled at the same time. What I realized at that moment is that 40% (or whatever his cut is) of that $3 goes into his pocket. So while he feels some remorse that his customers aren't getting as much value as he'd like, he also realizes that the price hikes help his bottom line out a bit as well.

I'd just like to point out that this only works if you assume that each customer has a fixed list of products to buy instead of a fixed amount of money to spend. If most customers do have a budget then raising prices doesn't help, the customer is still spending the same amount of money and the store is still getting the same 40% of that money. In fact the price increases hurt, since they increase the chance that the customer will stop seeing the products as a good value and stop buying entirely.

That's a good point, although, in my experience, I usually go into a store wanting to pick up a specific unit, not so much looking to spend X dollars. So, if I wanted to pick up raptors, and they were $36 apiece instead of $33, that extra 40% of $3 is going to the gaming store. If the price had stayed $33, they would simply be out that (wait.... math....) $1.20 from my wallet.

That being said, I have seen people who spend so much time in the gaming store socially that they literally do have a budget/mentality of "I can spend X dollars this month, how shall I spend it?" so it's an interesting perspective.

Increasing prices don't help FLGS if customers buy less overall. This is the very issue with GW, responding to falling sales with price increases.

It's not good for independent stores reliant on GW product. Unfavourable as it might be, they are still the leading manufacturer of wargames figures that would seriously hit independents hard if they vanished over night. GW aren't good for FLGS, if it weren't for the guaranteed sales they generate I think many would avoid them, GW is antagonistic towards independent suppliers.

Hopefully independent stores can ween themselves off GW stock. I don't really mind if GW put their prices into the stratosphere and go bust, just as long as they don't suck a lot of the hobby in if they collapse.

 slowthar wrote:

I want to see if they can put out a new edition every year or every other year, charge $150 a pop for the regular release, and get somewhere around $600-$1000 for a limited edition, and actually still have people buy it and rabidly defend it. Codices: $100. Space marines: $20 apiece. Tanks: $125. I want to see how long they can actually stay in business by doing that, and I think that once they do finally fail, the postmortem analysis will be fantastic and insightful.

Step 1: Go to GW site.
Step 2: Set your location to Australia.
Step 3: Congratulations, you have now seen those prices, or at least close to.

Point number 2 is a bit backwards (as others have said).

But on the whole I agree with you. I've given up on GW ever being reasonable again and have moved onto greener pastures. So it is kind of an interesting experiment to watch unfold.

 Howard A Treesong wrote:
Increasing prices don't help FLGS if customers buy less overall. This is the very issue with GW, responding to falling sales with price increases.

It's not good for independent stores reliant on GW product. Unfavourable as it might be, they are still the leading manufacturer of wargames figures that would seriously hit independents hard if they vanished over night. GW aren't good for FLGS, if it weren't for the guaranteed sales they generate I think many would avoid them, GW is antagonistic towards independent suppliers.

Hopefully independent stores can ween themselves off GW stock. I don't really mind if GW put their prices into the stratosphere and go bust, just as long as they don't suck a lot of the hobby in if they collapse.

You beat me to it.

Also, GW has been becoming more and more restrictive in their relationships with local game stores - the player might not be ABLE to buy the unit that they want at my store, and may HAVE to go to GW to order it directly.

It is very unlikely that a local game store is entirely happy with the way GW is going.

The Auld Grump

 slowthar wrote:
So this morning I had a bit of an epiphany that I actually am starting to root for GW's current approach. Here's why.

Interesting post, I'll reply, but not in a rabid angry GW-hate kinda way.


1. I want to see how far they can take this business model.

Well, as stated above - that's what prices are already like here in AU and NZ. It's really a bit of a /popcorn perspective, though - and I can certainly understand it.



2. I think it's actually good for a lot of FLGSs.

I'm a hobby-budget kinda guy. I don't support any FLGS on GW product because it's just too expensive. If it were cheaper, I'd but it locally, and buy a lot more than I do. Instead, I buy online, and I buy way less GW product. So I spend just as much, but it's not on GW product, and most of my spending goes overseas, instead of to the local FLGSes.


3. I think it's good for the industry as a whole.

I also think it's exceptionally good to see other games starting to take off and get a bigger slice of the pie, but it's also a real shame to see a company that's been responsible for such a lot of positive things devolve in general the way it has over the past 20 years, and specifically in the last few.

I think a few of the FLGS owners who post on here might have something to say about number 2..

 chromedog wrote:
In my club, I was the ONLY one who played infinity three years ago. I had another club I could go to where I played, and it was never in opposition to my club (ran on one Saturday a month whereas we run on Sundays), so it wasn't a big deal for me.

Now, 6 out of the 8 regular members have taken it up. We used to be a pretty hard core GW only crowd. When we had a regime change, alternative games came in (one of those people in the former regime was of the "GW make the BESTEST miniatures, evah" belief and would not be swayed (despite how wrong he was).

We now have Distopian Wars and Infinity played alongside 40k and WHFB and the odd game of Spinespur.
Patience and perseverance will see you through. I didn't push - I showed them a demo if they expressed interest.

Two starters and a slowly does it approach can work. At least here. Aussies really don't care for the in-your-face-hardsell that the US tends to go for.

This gets post of the month from me.

Never has the old adage of 'you get out what you put in' held more true than for this kind of thing. Get some miniatures, set up and play some games. You will be amazed at how probably 90% of wargamers will respond, not just to Infinity but anything that has nice looking miniatures and a good ruleset.

My current view of GW plc is one of morbid fascination.

Every time you think they have reached rock bottom, Kirby gets the shovels out and gets them digging again!

If they did an updated version of 40K in 40 minutes then I may invest again, but other than that it's too much money for a system that is about having lots of models rather than a sound ruleset.

I think GW's biggest problem currently is that it is about 5-10 years behind most other retailers in terms of its business decisions.

Its stores have finally implemented stock turn targets, something it should have done years ago, it has after all had EPOS tills for quite some time.

It has shaken up it's production model and made cuts in the right places.

It has trimmed the fat off its retail model, although I am not entirely sure that particular one is working.

However as an international retailer with a niche product the biggest and most important thing it should be looking at is market share.

Games Workshop doesn't do this and it's a big mistake on their part.

The reason they don't? Games Workshop has blindly believed that for the last 30 years they are the only manufacturer of fantasy and sci fi models and games.

To some extent they were for a long time. I'm not saying they really were the only games company, but certainly they were the only one with a recognisable brand and high street presence.

GW actively went out of its way to kill off its competitors in the UK and in the late 80s and early 90s held almost 100% of the market share.

But that isn't the case any more. They still refuse to believe that other games companies have any presence in the market and view their falling customer numbers as people who have grown out of the hobby or are hit by the recession.

You only have to go to an event like Salute in the UK to realise that there are other very successful companies out there making a living and slowly eating away at GW's market share.

Go into most games clubs or indy stores in London and there are almost as many people playing X-Wing, Malifaux, Infinity as there are playing Warhammer or 40K.

Don't get me wrong, I am sure GW still own around 75% of market share, which is fantastic for any company, but I believe that figure will continue to drop until they realise the customers they are losing aren't quitting the hobby, they are quitting GW....

I'll add to the OP:

4. The concentration on direct only diversifies the independents

GW keeps increasing the number of products you can only get by either going to a GW store or ordering directly from GW. Things like the data slates also cut out the independent retailer from the equation. This has forced stores who primarily deal with GW to diversify their offerings and as GW adds more and more products to the list of things that independents can't stock, this will alienate more and more of the people who are supposed to be their business partners.

If GW doubles down on this approach and does their best to find the right combination of locations and employees for their single employee stores, we may eventually hit the point where GW has next to no presence in the majority of comic shops, game stores and the like and they'll have effectively segregated themselves off in their own little bubble world, completing their march towards irrelevancy to anyone not caught up in their sales ecosystem.

GW needs to:
1) Bring the whole world into pricing parity with Australia and New Zealand by raising the price everywhere else.
2) Continue to concentrate on direct sales and tighten and restrict independent retailer terms and discounts even further.
3) Continue to develop their single employee retail operation with no company wide policies ensuring the availability of gaming space. If the person running it misses their sales targets, give em the ax and replace and relocate as needed.
4) Continue with a fast splash release sales model where, under the new unbound rules, every release can theoretically be sold to every customer regardless of what army they started with. And they can push more codexes and army books this way.
5) Switch to a release schedule of every second May being a new edition of 40k and WFB, so every year they have a big book that people have to buy to keep playing.
6) Reduce product allocation to independent traders so they have trouble filling their pre-orders. This will send a clear message to their customers that if they want the product, they should deal with GW directly.
7) Continue to push up unit and game sizes in terms of model count. People should aspire to get a full size army but it's okay if they never truly get there. The rules should be primarily about driving sales and good game design be damned.

Can't wait to see how it turns out!

Lanrak wrote:
My current view of GW plc is one of morbid fascination.

Every time you think they have reached rock bottom, Kirby gets the shovels out and gets them digging again!

That's essentially my stance. I still play 40K with a friend, but most of my interest in GW is seeing what they can do next.

I really hope they don't get it together, or they'll really hurt a lot of the smaller manufactueres that make the hobby great.

These kinds of discussions are incredibly silly. GW is selling their product and they aren't in danger of going under any time soon. They have cash on the books and believe it or not, their price increases are inline with price increases in various other products. If you take out all the hedonically adjusted productivity gains from the CPI, their price increases are inline and the product is actually getting better quality.

If you want an example of a company that is "in trouble" you look at something like General Motors where they are having to resort of channel stuffing and thousands of unsold new cars go rot in the middle of nowhere...




Point is.. when you start seeing inventory actually start backing up, take note.. Until then, there really isn't a problem here considering how crappy the economy is doing as a whole.

dereksatkinson wrote:
If you want an example of a company that is "in trouble" you look at something like General Motors where they are having to resort of channel stuffing and thousands of unsold new cars go rot in the middle of nowhere...



Point is.. when you start seeing inventory actually start backing up, take note.. Until then, there really isn't a problem here considering how crappy the economy is doing as a whole.

Those are actually cars from Avonmouth Docks, England. From 6 years ago, when car sales in the UK hit an all time low. Not General Motors.

Sorry for the off-topic. It's just that I see this falsehood get passed around so often.

GWs inventory won't be backing up any time soon because they are producing less and less to match demand.
They have also shown a willingness to simply destroy product they can't move (dreadfleet).


Actually, now that you mention it, the Hobbit limited edition box still being all over the shelves a year and a half after release is a pretty good example of stock backing up isn't it? And crusade of fire, we still have about 5 at my local GW and another 3 at my FLGS.

GW needs to keep their current course so they can implode in on themselves and someone can rebuild the remains. There's no turning back for them now, they're too far gone.

 slowthar wrote:
So this morning I had a bit of an epiphany that I actually am starting to root for GW's current approach.

That wasn't an epiphany slowthar, it's a concussion. Go see a doctor.

GW isn't going anywhere anytime soon. There is no debt issue, their asset base is solid and there has been no capital reduction.

The issue is that there it is getting tougher to squeeze dividends out of the company due to thinning margins. Their shares have been recently corrected by the market so we could well see people buying in expecting them to become overpriced again in the future, but that said this is a mature company so we're only seeing funds looking for a stable income investing in large portions.

It will be years (I'd say at least 5+) before anything will eventuate.

Erethor wrote:

dereksatkinson wrote:
If you want an example of a company that is "in trouble" you look at something like General Motors where they are having to resort of channel stuffing and thousands of unsold new cars go rot in the middle of nowhere...



Point is.. when you start seeing inventory actually start backing up, take note.. Until then, there really isn't a problem here considering how crappy the economy is doing as a whole.

Those are actually cars from Avonmouth Docks, England. From 6 years ago, when car sales in the UK hit an all time low. Not General Motors.

Sorry for the off-topic. It's just that I see this falsehood get passed around so often.

BURN!!!

Erethor wrote:

dereksatkinson wrote:
If you want an example of a company that is "in trouble" you look at something like General Motors where they are having to resort of channel stuffing and thousands of unsold new cars go rot in the middle of nowhere...



Point is.. when you start seeing inventory actually start backing up, take note.. Until then, there really isn't a problem here considering how crappy the economy is doing as a whole.

Those are actually cars from Avonmouth Docks, England. From 6 years ago, when car sales in the UK hit an all time low. Not General Motors.

Sorry for the off-topic. It's just that I see this falsehood get passed around so often.

The hedgerows is kinda a give away. Lol

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
Sort of a little secret...someone always has to make the first step.

If you play at a local store, buy yourself a starter or two from a game that interests you (and by starter - I mean the fairly balanced X vs Y deals most companies offer). Paint up the army, learn the rules, then head on over to the store on open game nights. Most people are open to try a new game - especially when you have two painted armies for them to choose from to play with. Repeat for a few weeks. Gamers with their own armies for any given system will sprout like weeds. In a few months time - you will be able to pick up a random game or quite likely see the store move to support your efforts by scheduling Infinity nights to help encourage the sales.

It isn't really a significant investment for most systems, and I have yet to see that simple technique fail. You can normally even get with the manufacturer/publisher to get discounts or other perks for your efforts. Back when GW cared about growing their system - that is what they did.

Well, there's one other little problem. I'm not big on skirmish games. I prefer to work with big blocks of troops, not lots of individuals. D&D is my goto for individual combat. I prefer mass combat games to be REALLY mass combat.

Yeah, there's Kings of War. Not bad, if a bit stripped down. Still prefer WFB... and it would be a shame for it do disappear.