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Mali wrote:
Thanks all. =) some great replies with good thoughts and a few laughs.

I may be misunderstanding the definition of "Mathhammer" wrong.

Best example i can thing of and this is over the course of about 30 games.

Warwalkers. i know statistaclly duel lances or duel scatter lasers is supposed to do better.

How ever, in my experience.
when i run duel weapons i face armies that do not require the weapon i brought. ex if i run duel lances i face all horde and light tank armies.

When i run scatter and lance combo. i have a shot every turn and do more over all damage.

So is this "mathhammer" or something else??

That's not really mathhammer. 'Mathhammer' refers to using math to decide how effective a weapon or unit will be in a given situation. For example, working out how much damage a Tactical Marine will do to Ork Boys in one round of shooting:
2 Shots x 2/3rd chance to hit x 1/2 chance to wound x 2/3 chance to bypass cover (Assuming a 5+ Cover save) = .4444, or about a 50% chance of killing a single Ork. So if you have ten Tactical Marines, you know you'll kill around 4-5 Ork Boys in a shooting attack, on average. Bad dice could make this far worse, good dice could make it far better, but that is what's to be expected.

You're talking more about optimization versus generalization. Dual Lances or Dual Scatter Lasers are 'better' because when you're fighting a specific enemy (A tank or a horde), one is going to be impotent and the other is going to be effective. If you have two of the same weapon, you're optimized to kill a specific target, but completely helpless against another. By taking one of each, you decrease your specific effectiveness but increase your ability to hurt everyone a little bit. That's more a measure of taking a TAC list versus an anti (Fill-in-the-blank) list. If you are playing against an unknown, it's generally better to bring a TAC list (Or a cheese deathstar) since you don't know what weapons will be impotent, but if you talk about what you'll be bringing before the game starts with your opponent, then specialization is usually going to do you better.

Mali wrote:
Thanks all. =) some great replies with good thoughts and a few laughs.

I may be misunderstanding the definition of "Mathhammer" wrong.

Best example i can thing of and this is over the course of about 30 games.

Warwalkers. i know statistaclly duel lances or duel scatter lasers is supposed to do better.

How ever, in my experience.
when i run duel weapons i face armies that do not require the weapon i brought. ex if i run duel lances i face all horde and light tank armies.

When i run scatter and lance combo. i have a shot every turn and do more over all damage.

So is this "mathhammer" or something else??

That is not mathhammer at all

That is called common sense hammer.

As for does mathhammer work, yes it works over the course of time undefinable, so don't expect to roll statistically average ever time you pick up a die.

 Madcat87 wrote:
If "mathhammer" didn't apply to games with an element of chance than I'm pretty sure casinos would be in a spot of trouble.

Along with everything else that depends on the physical laws of the universe, yes. And I think we can just dispense with the "hammer."

 Madcat87 wrote:
If "mathhammer" didn't apply to games with an element of chance than I'm pretty sure casinos would be in a spot of trouble.

I love that you left still called it mathHAMMER for Casinos

Evokes images of a forum with people discussing the best builds for your Casino layout and constant strategy bickering over how much Security is necessary to deal with common threats, and discussing about whether or not blackjack is OP, and should professional poker players be nerfed? They clearly bring an unfair advantage to the table, etc, etc

I fundamentally fail to understand this thread. Asking if mathhammer is true is like asking if the laws of physics are true.

Statistics are the only way to represent randomness objectively.

The only way. Every other way is subjective. Anything you base not on an objective way of describing something is, itself, subjective. You cannot talk about truth without objectivity, and (unless there's a genius in the room who can talk about chaos theory), you can not talk about randomness objectively without statistics.

Math, in this case, is the very definition of truth, as it is the very thing that defines truth in this context.

No amount of personal anecdotes or experiences changes anything. Your data points only exist in the set of circumstances that created them, and aren't applicable to anything or anybody else not in those circumstances. This is also known as subjectivity.

Subjectivity creates incommensurability, avoiding which is the entire purpose of objective truth in the first place.

Which, in this case, is mathhammer.

15 people voted No. Trust in humanity...fading.

I think it's due to a conception of what mathhammer is.

Some people think of mathhammer as being a kind of crystal ball that you can tap into in the middle of a match that will tell you what'll happen.

"Using my mathammer, I have predicted that this tactical marine squad will kill 9 of your models! Muhahahahaa, fire away, tactical marines!"

In which case a person would say "well that's not going to always happen", which is true.

What kicks me though is that people don't realize that everyone uses mathhammer all the time.

When you have your missile-launcher devastators shoot at that chimera rather than your tactical squad armed with a single autocannon, you are in effect "using mathhammer".

Mathhammer is only one thing all the time - what differs is its interpretation and what people expect of it

Sigvatr wrote:15 people voted No. Trust in humanity...fading.

BlaxicanX wrote:Some people think of mathhammer as being a kind of crystal ball that you can tap into in the middle of a match that will tell you what'll happen.

Yeah, I think it's just semantic confusion as well. At least, I hope it is.

If the math says you have a 50% chance of something happening, and you try it twice and fail both times, that's not a failure of math.

 Ailaros wrote:
I fundamentally fail to understand this thread. Asking if mathhammer is true is like asking if the laws of physics are true.

Statistics are the only way to represent randomness objectively.

The only way. Every other way is subjective. Anything you base not on an objective way of describing something is, itself, subjective. You cannot talk about truth without objectivity, and (unless there's a genius in the room who can talk about chaos theory), you can not talk about randomness objectively without statistics.

Math, in this case, is the very definition of truth, as it is the very thing that defines truth in this context.

No amount of personal anecdotes or experiences changes anything. Your data points only exist in the set of circumstances that created them, and aren't applicable to anything or anybody else not in those circumstances. This is also known as subjectivity.

Subjectivity creates incommensurability, avoiding which is the entire purpose of objective truth in the first place.

Which, in this case, is mathhammer.

if every one called "mathhammer" statistics. i never would have posted this thread

I posted this thread because when my friends and I talk uunits and load outs we include statics and personal experiences. So i thought most people did that as well and was curious.

I am going to take away that most people just mean pure statistics when the use "mathhammer" i hope others do as well =) yeah less confusion in the future

 Ailaros wrote:

Sigvatr wrote:15 people voted No. Trust in humanity...fading.

BlaxicanX wrote:Some people think of mathhammer as being a kind of crystal ball that you can tap into in the middle of a match that will tell you what'll happen.

Yeah, I think it's just semantic confusion as well. At least, I hope it is.

If the math says you have a 50% chance of something happening, and you try it twice and fail both times, that's not a failure of math.

Sadly, I think a good chunk of the population disbelieves in math, and statistics. I used to work in education (teaching science to various age groups), and we'd have parents on field trips say things like, "I don't believe the weatherman, he says 50% chance of rain, and half the time it doesn't even rain!"
My 5 year old has a T-shirt that says 4 out of 3 people don't understand fractions.
Most people don't seem to find the humor.

 HawaiiMatt wrote:

Sadly, I think a good chunk of the population disbelieves in math, and statistics. I used to work in education (teaching science to various age groups), and we'd have parents on field trips say things like, "I don't believe the weatherman, he says 50% chance of rain, and half the time it doesn't even rain!"
My 5 year old has a T-shirt that says 4 out of 3 people don't understand fractions.
Most people don't seem to find the humor.

So now that i got my question answer I'm going to digress. i once had a middle school science teacher try to argue geology against my mom who has a masters degree in Geology.

was scary.....

I'm a math teacher, and so I use mathhammer all the time. That said, mathhammer, being a form of statistics, is grossly misunderstood. devoted mathhammerers (I'm not an English teacher) are more likely to miss key things, like...

The exact value of an alpha strike.

If your unit gets stranded out of range due to lack of transports, it doesn't matter how well they dakka/assault.

Your deathstar can (generally) only target one foe per turn. So... are you going to spend an entire turn killing that one surviving objective secured marine?

If you strip an average of 3.999 hull points off of my land raider with those 18 Necron warriors at point blank range, that actually means that I have something like a 40% chance of surviving, a 40% chance of overkill, and only a 20% chance that you feel good about mathhammer.

Also a math teacher. Celerior is right on target.

I prefer to use determine the percent chance of something happening rather than expected average value (what most people use).

Mali wrote:
In your personal experience has mathhammer worked for you??

or

Has bitter personal experience told you to consider other things beyond strict percentages??

My experience with mathammer is that in direct scenarios, it's almost perfect. As soon as the conditions change, however, you're screwed.
And then there's anecdotal stuff like the fact that despite fielding Abaddon multiple times in 5th and 6th ed, he hasn't made a single kill, and has died to lone zombies, Ork Burnaz (while hiding inside a unit of 10 termies), his own weapons etc.
And that my CSM models can't fire plasma for gak.

Personal opinion here: Mathhammer is silly. 'It takes 4.41 shots with Gun X to kill Unit Y', great, have you taken into consideration forest terrain? Model placement? Splitting armies in ways to get Side Armor shots from that Lascannon instead of front armor? Too many variables in warhammer to make it so cut and dry. Not only does the situation shift, adding a near infinite amount of variations to a scenario that can make anything happen, but 'average' doesn't say anything when it comes to reality. Rolling a six is still a 1/6 chance, no matter how many dice you throw. The difference doesn't need to be in some calculation. Just know that if you need a six to do something, you better have a lot of dice being rolled to make it effective.

I agree with playing the meta, shifting ideas to handle more specific threats like power armor or AV13+ And there are numerical reasons to keep that in mind. But I'd rather play with luck and rely on chance and Chaos theory than expect the average numbers. Only math I want to see is what removes variables with special rules or situations, not what happens in a controlled environment.

The thing is, if you think math hammer should be cut and dry and Melta squad is popping a Landraider every turn because that's what the dice says they are consistently capable of, then you are bring silly. You need to apply the damage. No calculator can tell you how many games those mtamarines are going to make it to Melta range or how many turns after they will survive. Required range, mobility, positioning and durability need to be taken into account on top of your calcs. While the math hammer is going to be accurate over an extended period of time, you don't take MeltaGhns over plasma on walking Plague Marines for a reason. A little bit of further calculation tells you you can expect better returns with one over the other. However in a Rhino it's possibly another story. It's not always this blatant, and at times requires more thought than other times. Math is however a brilliant tool, and one of the most important things to playing the sharpest 40k possible.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 SharkoutofWata wrote:
Personal opinion here: Mathhammer is silly. 'It takes 4.41 shots with Gun X to kill Unit Y', great, have you taken into consideration forest terrain? Model placement? Splitting armies in ways to get Side Armor shots from that Lascannon instead of front armor?

Short answer: yes. These are the things relevant to math hammer.

Too many variables in warhammer to make it so cut and dry. Not only does the situation shift, adding a near infinite amount of variations to a scenario that can make anything happen, but 'average' doesn't say anything when it comes to reality.

Well, there isn't an outrageous amount of possibilities. It might seem overwhelming to you, but a 40k vet is very capable of predicting which units will be played in what way, and calculating all the variables such as range, cover, facing, mobility, footprint, return fire, etc. and the effects it will have on the weaponry. Melta without and transport or Deepstrike or jetbike move cannot reliably fulfil it's role. This IS taken into account and shown by the fact nobody takes it on a 6" walking platform. It's also taken into account when we factor in Deepstrike not being 100% reliable. It's also taking into account the possibility of the transport getting popped, or the jetbikes having their jink ignored by barrage or Markerlights. Everything is processes my friend, we know not to expect 4.41 wounds on unit x on a every game basis, just as an average, for the games and turns that they do get the shot off. It's what we have to work with. You'd be silly not to use it just because you don't want to take into account the likelihood of it playing to your advantage. Plus, the best units are ones that play to allow reliable returns. Havocs are long range for a reason, Obliterators use Deepstrike and a tiny squad size for a reason, etc.

I use mathhammer every time I play. I give a quick calculation of the odds for my lootas to pick the most efficient targets.

That said, the odds are one thing, (and those who understand statistics ignore the rest of this post) but until the dice land, there is no way to know before hand how they are going to land.

If you need to pass your regroup you have a 2.77% chance of rolling it, but I call it a 50/50 chance, as the dice will either land on or they won't. I consider every roll to be a 50/50 shot, you either hit or you don't, you either wound or you don't. During a game the current roll is full of possibilities and nothing that has previously happened will influence the current roll. sure the odds might be 2.77% of you getting the roll you want, and it's statistically unlikely, but that doesn't mean you won't get the roll you want.

so as I believer in luck & karma, before the important rolls, pray to the gods, make them an offering before the game, be a good person everyday to keep your karma in the good zone, and if you're convinced the dice hate you and are going to roll horribly, then you are right and your negativity will flow into the dice. so think happy thoughts and you'll roll happy dice

Then every time I've come across Mathhammer it's been stupidly simple and I haven't found the right people doing it. I think I've followed a half dozen, almost want to call them articles, comparing X to Y and it's always a controlled environment, flat land, no tactical advantages given to either player or any real world wrenches thrown in. I wrongly assumed that was it then and haven't seen the better versions of it.