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 Azreal13 wrote:
That you describe the describe your own post as "quite negative" tells it's own story, as it pretty much is exactly "sure x is bad, BUT!" All the way through.


The post you quote has no substance to it, merely your own observations and opinions, and in no way constructs a compelling argument that GW are anything other than headed in a bad direction.


So what your saying is your dismissing him as not being negative enough and his facts not being hard enough. Very few of the posts, negative or positive, contain anything that is not opinion. GW is not large enough to have external commentators talking about its results, and very few people here are qualified to give a proper opinion.

 insaniak wrote:
Sometimes, Exterminatus is the only option.
And sometimes, it's just a case of too much scotch combined with too many buttons...
 
   
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Desperado Corp.

 Steve steveson wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
That you describe the describe your own post as "quite negative" tells it's own story, as it pretty much is exactly "sure x is bad, BUT!" All the way through.


The post you quote has no substance to it, merely your own observations and opinions, and in no way constructs a compelling argument that GW are anything other than headed in a bad direction.


So what your saying is your dismissing him as not being negative enough and his facts not being hard enough. Very few of the posts, negative or positive, contain anything that is not opinion. GW is not large enough to have external commentators talking about its results, and very few people here are qualified to give a proper opinion.


I take it you skipped over all the mathematics from the guys that are/ have been in various business firms then.

Pretre: OOOOHHHHH snap. That's like driving away from hitting a pedestrian.
Pacific:First person to Photoshop a GW store into the streets of Kabul wins the thread.
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Devon, UK

 Steve steveson wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
That you describe the describe your own post as "quite negative" tells it's own story, as it pretty much is exactly "sure x is bad, BUT!" All the way through.


The post you quote has no substance to it, merely your own observations and opinions, and in no way constructs a compelling argument that GW are anything other than headed in a bad direction.


So what your saying is your dismissing him as not being negative enough and his facts not being hard enough. Very few of the posts, negative or positive, contain anything that is not opinion. GW is not large enough to have external commentators talking about its results, and very few people here are qualified to give a proper opinion.



Dude, there's charts and everything.

Not every post has to be an in depth analysis, of course there can be back and fourth between various posters, my point is that at some point, most posters who are "anti" have used some sort of tangible evidence to support their argument, while those who are trying to argue things aren't too bad chiefly hang on the key point of "nah-uh cause reasons."

It doesn't make a compelling argument, and it harms the credibility of those trying to argue an alternate view. If you're going to argue that GW isn't potentially on the verge of a financial issue, cite reasons beyond the subjective and anecdotal.

EDIT
To address the negativity comment. I'm not dismissing anything in the basis of it's positivity or negativity, but on the merits of it's credibility. Many of Backfire's, and others who share his opinion, counter arguments lack credibility, it isn't anything to do with his stance. I'll also say I find a post he has written and subsequently cited as negative to actually read as an attempt to defend GW, as, evidently, did Wayne. That Backfire feels this was a critical post speaks much to his opinion on the matter.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/08/05 20:12:13


We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark

The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.

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 Wayshuba wrote:
Okay, guess it was time to elaborate on why I keep saying what I am saying. Most of the time these trends can be tracked overall based on changes of sales growth once the downward trend starts. Assuming GW maintains a similar change ratio YoY from this point forward (YoY growth change plus acceleration rate of 7.9%) this chart shows the picture.

Year Revenues Growth Change
2011 £123.1 N/A
2012 £131.0 +6.4
2013 £134.6 +2.7
2014 £123.5 -11.6
2015 £ 99.4 -19.5 Cost target to profit: £86.8m - cut from previous year £21.2m
2016 £ 72.2 -27.4 Cost target to profit: £63.1m - cut from previous year £23.7m (total from present £44.9m)
2017 £ 46.7 -35.3 Cost target to profit: £40.8m - cut from previous year £22.3m (total from present £67.2m)

The problem with viewing longer term trends is founded in the assumptions that the factors that comprise those trends maintain themselves going forward. What is important to try and identify is when those underlying factors have begun to crumble, and once that happens, the previous trends no longer apply and the factors of collapse are taken into account. We probably could have done a ten year analysis on TSR and said things are going to always be the same, right up until the last two years of there collapse. Same with Wang Computer, Digital Equipment, and other similar companies at this point in existence.

Given that GW is really down to their two core product lines, released their "heavy hitter" products over the last year and still experienced a sizable decline against a market that is growing, and do not have an unusual circumstance, such as the LOTR bubble popping, I think it is safe to say the crux has been crossed.

The numbers above reflect a consistent decline based on change in sales growth and the current 7.9% change acceleration rate. However, history has shown this is rarely going to be the case and the acceleration rate should increase year over year.


"Acceleration rate increase" is usually in cases where the company's technological products become obsolete. Such as with company which produces cars, computers, OS's or phones. There it is very much possible to fall into "death spiral" when company's sales fall as the customers abandon the product since there are so much more capable ones around, and with reduced cash flow, the company is unable to produce a killer product - or tries, but without proper resources and rushed development, it is so bad that it only serves to accelerate the decline.

However, such a development is not really applicable to GW. They are not technologically obsolete: I guess one could argue that their games are not as good as competitors, but in tabletop world this is not anywhere as big a factor as in purely technological solutions where performance has obvious and reliable yardsticks. Another thing is that GW products have very large secondary market. Thus, the sales do not give accurate picture to how much GW games are played: recently I bought a GW miniature which was made in 1996. No way I'd be buying a phone or computer made in the '90s. Even though their sales in real ££ terms are comparable to what they were in turn of the century, I'd bet there are actually more active players today than then. Playerbase might be shrinking from top days, but it is not going to go away immediately. Hence, there is unlikely to be mass exodus of customers comparable as happened with say, Atari, or Kodak, or Nokia since the business is just completely different. Much more likely scenario is the slow dribbling down of sales, as old timers gradually quit and recruitment of new players slows to a trickle.

Also as I pointed out earlier, there is no ongoing evidence of this accelerated death spiral you keep talking about. Kirby reported in January half-year report, that their sales began to decline late in previous year (presumably after Tau release?). This claim is supported by numbers which show a slowdown in 2013 second half-year. Since the latest half-year did not show decline compared to previous one, it does not seem that we're in the middle of a huge sales drop-off. Again, the evidence points out to flat or slow decline of sales - exactly as before. Now, it is of course possible that this massive collapse only begins immediately after they have released 7th edition, but that'd be quite graituous timing, don't you agree?

Third, again you claim a "growing market". Are you really sure? Didn't we talk this through last time around?

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 Cruentus wrote:


Just take a look at Warhammer Historicals, arguably the "largest" historicals ruleset for some time, with a huge tournament presence. Once that went under (or was unsupported), the scene died, quickly,. And none of the other systems: Hail Caesar, War and Conquest, etc. could pick up the slack. WABforum? Tumbleweeds. Same would happen if GW went under.

If nothing else, GW is the glue that keeps people coming to forums like this one - love it, hate it, ignore it, whatever.

I'll just keep playing the game, collecting models, and enjoy myself while it lasts (and its been 20+ years for me so far, so good).


Except for the fact that 40k is a gigantic IP which has spawned: a library of pulp novels, a half dozen or so TT games, a dozen or more video games, 20+ years of its own flagship game, and millions of fans worldwide ranging in ages from 10-70 years old.
I dont think comparing it to WH historicals is fair or relevant.

Whatever happens, there will be a 40k TT game. There is too much money to be made off of it for the industry to let it rot. Its really a moot point though - GW would continue to exist at least inname. Someone will scoop it up and make money off of it. Its just too big and established of an IP.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/08/05 20:21:42


 
   
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 Azreal13 wrote:
That you describe the describe your own post as "quite negative" tells it's own story, as it pretty much is exactly "sure x is bad, BUT!" All the way through.


Which is a very definitition of "quite negative". Duh. If I had said "it really is bad", then it would have been "very negative".

 Azreal13 wrote:

The post you quote has no substance to it, merely your own observations and opinions, and in no way constructs a compelling argument that GW are anything other than headed in a bad direction.


LOL. This comes from a guy who has made no substantive contribution in this thread at all, other than deriding people who do not hold his own viewpoint.




Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Azreal13 wrote:

To address the negativity comment. I'm not dismissing anything in the basis of it's positivity or negativity, but on the merits of it's credibility. Many of Backfire's, and others who share his opinion, counter arguments lack credibility, it isn't anything to do with his stance. I'll also say I find a post he has written and subsequently cited as negative to actually read as an attempt to defend GW, as, evidently, did Wayne. That Backfire feels this was a critical post speaks much to his opinion on the matter.


It is apparently completely unthinkable to you that someone might have a position which is somewhere between "That's it, they're doomed! DOOMED I TELL YOU" and "No, that is actually great news!"

I wonder what it is in the Internet that encourages people to think in binaric terms.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/08/05 20:24:01


Mr Vetock, give back my Multi-tracker! 
   
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Stop derailing the thread with your petty squabble. Its been infomative and succinct for 50+ pages.
   
Made in gb
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Devon, UK

Backfire wrote:


 Azreal13 wrote:

The post you quote has no substance to it, merely your own observations and opinions, and in no way constructs a compelling argument that GW are anything other than headed in a bad direction.


LOL. This comes from a guy who has made no substantive contribution in this thread at all, other than deriding people who do not hold his own viewpoint.



No substantive contribution huh?

Just the edited highlights of my first page of posts ITT,

Azreal13 wrote:
 Soggy Kittenz wrote:
So do we all believe that Kirby stepping down is a good thing or not? Personally, I will impressed if whoever is next manages to do a worse job, so improvement?


Kirby stepping down is an irrelevance, he will still hold an influential position within the company, he will be instrumental in appointing a successor, who will conform to his ideas of how the company should be run, and will still be pervasive throughout upper management due to established, long term relationships with the remainder of staff who aren't going anywhere.

We might see some small signs of change, but don't expect revolution.


Azreal13 wrote:
 Blacksails wrote:
So, I know very little about business. How bad is this report really? What similarities does this have to other companies that have gone under or managed to recover? Are there parallels to be drawn? And could GW recover if they keep doing largely what they're currently doing?

To me, it looks unhealthy, but I don't know how bad it really is.


It's... not good.

It could have been worse, they've essentially managed to make up a small amount from January, year on year, but as has been pointed out, that period features the relaunch of their flagship product, and arguably one of the most lucrative model releases of recent times (pure speculation on my part, but given even I have become a big IK fanboy, difficult to see that it couldn't have been.)

It's like a scene in an RPG when the floor starts to break away in pieces, and the protagonists leap from one solid section to the next, that plan will only work for so long until you get out of that room or go down the hole.


Azreal13 wrote:Another small gem


We also need a constant flow of great managers for our stores. In the end that is still the most important thing of all.


No Tom, you need a working environment where you don't burn up and spit out the ones you have every twelve months and you need a culture where the talented ones who are perhaps a little more unorthodox aren't muttered about in darkened corners and squeezed out at the earliest opportunity.

Then you won't need a "constant flow" just enough to populate your new stores as you open them.


Azreal13 wrote:Anyone else noticed that Mark Wells appears to have been given a golden handshake in excess of £1/2m?


Azreal13 wrote:
 Crimson wrote:
I'm a bit surprised that the share price hasn't taken a bigger hit, or is -2.15% a lot?


Thing with the share price is that January will have shaken a lot of small scale investors loose.

They've paid a dividend, which will have encouraged purchases before the qualification date, and has seen a steady, but undramatic, fall since it was paid, as those who bought stock just for a quick payout have been divesting themselves.

Almost 50% of GW's shares are owned by institutional investors, and a further ~15% owned by Kirby and other senior management. They've all had dividends, and are in it for the long haul in all likelihood, and in most cases have probably seen a decent return on the purchase price, regardless of the roller coaster in between times.

All this means is that, in reality, there probably aren't enough equity holders of the sort who would likely panic and try and offload their stock in a hurry, causing a run on the price. Remember anyone who bought at the start of the year has made money in the stock and been paid a divided, they're unlikely to be too dissatisfied.


Azreal13 wrote:
 Compel wrote:
It is odd that the share price has had a decent jump as a result of this, though.

I wouldn't expect a nosedive (even for the ignorant me, that would seem too sensible), but I would have thought mostly flat-ish would be ok.


The shares closed up 5%.

5.

Honestly, that's essentially zero reaction. As I said earlier, over 60% of the shares are owned by a combination of institutions and staff, not the sort of owners likely to dump stock at the drop of a hat, all the flighty types already got scared away in January.


Azreal13 wrote:
xxvaderxx wrote:
 Mr. Burning wrote:

The 'hobby' is selling the best quality miniatures in the world - made by GW. That's it.

If you had no knowledge of GW and were presented with the about us text of GW you would assume that they are in the same market as Hummel figurines, Sideshow WETA, and other collectible merchandise.

The game is a distant after thought.


Little tribia fact, having the best cars in the world, did not save Ferrari from being bought by Fiat.


Sorry, don't mean to be constantly correcting you, but Ferrari weren't exactly making the best cars in the world when they were purchased, and being purchased isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially in the auto industry where the enormous R+D costs can be diffused over multiple marques and platforms, just like being purchased wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for GW, depending on who the buyer was and what their intentions were.


Azreal13 wrote:
 Wolfstan wrote:
Given that Reinholt understands what is going on and given that there is so much chatter going on about it I do wonder why the account handlers of these big investors haven't started asking questions. I understand that the interweb allows millions of opinions and theories, but there is no smoke without fire. You'd of thought some account handler somewhere might start wondering if there is something amiss and have a closer look!?


You're misunderstanding the motivations of these large investors.

As my old Economics teacher was fond of saying, the trend of the stock market is always up. You just have to hang in long enough and, even with cliff edges and recessions, ultimately you should make a return, the only variable is how much. If the company in question pays a regular dividend then that's ultimately all you're looking for.

Most of the low level investors have already bailed in January, and the majority of those left are looking at making investments in terms of years and decades, not a quick buck in the course of a few months.

Alternatively, some may consider GW a ripe target for a takeover, which would likely cause a steep increase in share price, and be gambling on that happening, after all, if they've held stock for more than a year or two already, the current price still shows a good ROI, so why not?




Automatically Appended Next Post:
sand.zzz wrote:
Stop derailing the thread with your petty squabble. Its been infomative and succinct for 50+ pages.


Alas, it was inevitable, ad hominems are essentially all the "pro" crowd really have, personal attacks, normally initiated by those trying to argue from a pro-GW bias get more threads on this subject closed down than anything.

But I'll do my bit, I'll bow out of the thread for a bit and let him shout at the wall til he's calmed down a tad.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/08/05 20:31:25


We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark

The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.

The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox

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Somewhere in south-central England.

They may have supported tourneys but since inception their rules have never been formulated with regards to competitive game play.


That isn't strictly accurate either.

WHFB and 40K have since the beginning been issued with points values and army books to limit options in order to create a balanced game.

Obviously not always totally successfully... but the concept has always been there and it derives straight from the design of tournament games like WRG Ancients.



Automatically Appended Next Post:
This thread is about the financial report's implications.

I see no value in a H8Rs versus WKs online battle.


Further OT posts are subject to deletion without notice. --Janthkin

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/08/05 20:46:18


I'm writing a load of fiction. My latest story starts here... This is the index of all the stories...

We're not very big on official rules. Rules lead to people looking for loopholes. What's here is about it. 
   
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I think the release schedule could have worked if what they released was actually good. Supplements that did little or ones that no one wanted. (Black Legion and Crimson Slaughter?) If they had released codecies that got players excited instead of dropping out (Nids, Orks) then it could have worked in GW's favor. Maybe.



Also, check out my history blog: Minimum Wage Historian, a fun place to check out history that often falls between the couch cushions. 
   
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Backfire wrote:
 Wayshuba wrote:
Okay, guess it was time to elaborate on why I keep saying what I am saying. Most of the time these trends can be tracked overall based on changes of sales growth once the downward trend starts. Assuming GW maintains a similar change ratio YoY from this point forward (YoY growth change plus acceleration rate of 7.9%) this chart shows the picture.

Year Revenues Growth Change
2011 £123.1 N/A
2012 £131.0 +6.4
2013 £134.6 +2.7
2014 £123.5 -11.6
2015 £ 99.4 -19.5 Cost target to profit: £86.8m - cut from previous year £21.2m
2016 £ 72.2 -27.4 Cost target to profit: £63.1m - cut from previous year £23.7m (total from present £44.9m)
2017 £ 46.7 -35.3 Cost target to profit: £40.8m - cut from previous year £22.3m (total from present £67.2m)

The problem with viewing longer term trends is founded in the assumptions that the factors that comprise those trends maintain themselves going forward. What is important to try and identify is when those underlying factors have begun to crumble, and once that happens, the previous trends no longer apply and the factors of collapse are taken into account. We probably could have done a ten year analysis on TSR and said things are going to always be the same, right up until the last two years of there collapse. Same with Wang Computer, Digital Equipment, and other similar companies at this point in existence.

Given that GW is really down to their two core product lines, released their "heavy hitter" products over the last year and still experienced a sizable decline against a market that is growing, and do not have an unusual circumstance, such as the LOTR bubble popping, I think it is safe to say the crux has been crossed.

The numbers above reflect a consistent decline based on change in sales growth and the current 7.9% change acceleration rate. However, history has shown this is rarely going to be the case and the acceleration rate should increase year over year.


"Acceleration rate increase" is usually in cases where the company's technological products become obsolete. Such as with company which produces cars, computers, OS's or phones. There it is very much possible to fall into "death spiral" when company's sales fall as the customers abandon the product since there are so much more capable ones around, and with reduced cash flow, the company is unable to produce a killer product - or tries, but without proper resources and rushed development, it is so bad that it only serves to accelerate the decline.

However, such a development is not really applicable to GW. They are not technologically obsolete: I guess one could argue that their games are not as good as competitors, but in tabletop world this is not anywhere as big a factor as in purely technological solutions where performance has obvious and reliable yardsticks. Another thing is that GW products have very large secondary market. Thus, the sales do not give accurate picture to how much GW games are played: recently I bought a GW miniature which was made in 1996. No way I'd be buying a phone or computer made in the '90s. Even though their sales in real ££ terms are comparable to what they were in turn of the century, I'd bet there are actually more active players today than then. Playerbase might be shrinking from top days, but it is not going to go away immediately. Hence, there is unlikely to be mass exodus of customers comparable as happened with say, Atari, or Kodak, or Nokia since the business is just completely different. Much more likely scenario is the slow dribbling down of sales, as old timers gradually quit and recruitment of new players slows to a trickle.

Also as I pointed out earlier, there is no ongoing evidence of this accelerated death spiral you keep talking about. Kirby reported in January half-year report, that their sales began to decline late in previous year (presumably after Tau release?). This claim is supported by numbers which show a slowdown in 2013 second half-year. Since the latest half-year did not show decline compared to previous one, it does not seem that we're in the middle of a huge sales drop-off. Again, the evidence points out to flat or slow decline of sales - exactly as before. Now, it is of course possible that this massive collapse only begins immediately after they have released 7th edition, but that'd be quite graituous timing, don't you agree?

Third, again you claim a "growing market". Are you really sure? Didn't we talk this through last time around?


Yes, it does happen to technology companies more often because of the nature of the accelerated rate of market advancement. However, it is not solely related to those types of companies. Acceleration rate increase happens in ANY company moving through collapse, not just tech companies. It is an effect of rapidly losing a customer base and can happen for a lot of reasons. Almost any company that produces fad products (which GW doesn't) eventually goes through this. Market changes (not just with tech) can also produce this. I would contend that GW is not only fighting their terrible business decisions, but there is a shift in the market happening for faster, smaller, less time intensive games which GW is not currently capable of handling.

As for the on-going evidence of the death spiral... it is there as it has been for the last year especially. They are showing all the classic symptoms in the historical order they appear in - as I discussed in another thread. Company feeling financial pressures - check. Rushing products out the door and raising prices dramatically to stem customer loss - check. Decline in quality of products as a result - check. Declines in revenue as a result - check. Now we watch as further cost cutting cuts into the bone and leads to poorer sales, and so on and so on. Speaking of that, there is where the most telling number in the GW report was - a substantial decline in revenue with a flat expenditure in Cost of Sales.

All the evidence for the death spiral is CLEARLY there. The latest financials back it. As for the current period sales, they achieved what they did throwing everything they could at stopping the decline. While they performed okay with the revenue, they paid for it dearly in profit. Lastly to add, they did in fact have a drop off. Flat should not have been where they were. Every other period they had a 40k rules release their revenue actually grew over prior years in that period - this time it didn't happen.

To your question, I already said that I wouldn't expect stellar results coming in next period from 7th edition - other reports of other "smaller" game systems outselling 40k 7th by 2 to 1 and as high as 7 to 1 speak volumes for the market shift. In addition, GW seems determined to keep pushing new release price higher and higher until eventually only millionaires will be able to afford them.

 
   
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Somewhere in south-central England.

One can predict a death spiral from parallels with other companies. Naturally it is impossible at the beginning of the supposed tail spin to have any data on its progress. That would emerge in the Dec 2014 interim report.

I'm writing a load of fiction. My latest story starts here... This is the index of all the stories...

We're not very big on official rules. Rules lead to people looking for loopholes. What's here is about it. 
   
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Canada

What is of particular interest to me is only two sets of numbers:

Total Revenue: 2014 = 123,501 , 2013 = 134,597
It is 91.8% from what it was last year.
Actual overall income has shrunk.

Profit Before Taxation: 2014 = 12,396 , 2013 = 21,395
It is 57.9% from what it was last year.
If internal efficiencies are supposed to be vastly improved what is going on?

"Net Book Value" is not all that different so any assets they have has not really changed (where the money could have gone).

I have to look again, somewhere buried in the details a ton of money was dumped into something as an expense since gross revenue had not quite dipped 10%.

They better not blame it on the new website.

A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte 
   
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 Wayshuba wrote:

As for the on-going evidence of the death spiral... it is there as it has been for the last year especially. They are showing all the classic symptoms in the historical order they appear in - as I discussed in another thread. Company feeling financial pressures - check. Rushing products out the door and raising prices dramatically to stem customer loss - check. Decline in quality of products as a result - check. Declines in revenue as a result - check. Now we watch as further cost cutting cuts into the bone and leads to poorer sales, and so on and so on. Speaking of that, there is where the most telling number in the GW report was - a substantial decline in revenue with a flat expenditure in Cost of Sales.


Financial pressure? They don't seem to think themselves they have much financial pressure, given that they just handed out dividend.
Prices - once again, I point out that they have skipped annual price hikes twice in a row now. Sure enough, new products do tend to cost more, but this is not a new development, it was same story 5-6 years ago already. Companies in panic mode are more likely to drop the prices!
Rushing products - IIRC, they aren't actually releasing any more miniatures annually than they did before. They are just spread along the year more evenly. They are producing more codices and supplements, though.
Decline in quality - in what way? Technically, no. Artistically, that is always debatable.
Their operating expenses actually dropped compared to previous year, even with the "exceptional costs". Remains to be seen, of course, how "exceptional" they were. At very least though, they probably don't have to pay so much severance packages next year.

 Wayshuba wrote:

All the evidence for the death spiral is CLEARLY there. The latest financials back it. As for the current period sales, they achieved what they did throwing everything they could at stopping the decline. While they performed okay with the revenue, they paid for it dearly in profit. Lastly to add, they did in fact have a drop off. Flat should not have been where they were. Every other period they had a 40k rules release their revenue actually grew over prior years in that period - this time it didn't happen.


Duh, in 5th and 6th edition releases, they released the edition quite early in the financial year, complete with starter set (which is probably their biggest selling single product). Now, they had just a week or two worth of sales of the basic rulebook, and no starter set.

 Wayshuba wrote:

To your question, I already said that I wouldn't expect stellar results coming in next period from 7th edition - other reports of other "smaller" game systems outselling 40k 7th by 2 to 1 and as high as 7 to 1 speak volumes for the market shift.


What are these reports? If they are selling so well, why are they "smaller"?

And personally, I do not expect a big upswing either because of 7th edition - the ruleset came out too soon and too unexpectedly, and the starter set is same one which most people who wanted it, have already bought. However, I do not also see a huge death spiral starting. All the signs point to that they will be doing what they have been doing until now - largely flat or slowly declining sales. Even Kirby did not promise more than "single digit growth".


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 Talizvar wrote:
What is of particular interest to me is only two sets of numbers:

Total Revenue: 2014 = 123,501 , 2013 = 134,597
It is 91.8% from what it was last year.
Actual overall income has shrunk.

Profit Before Taxation: 2014 = 12,396 , 2013 = 21,395
It is 57.9% from what it was last year.
If internal efficiencies are supposed to be vastly improved what is going on?

"Net Book Value" is not all that different so any assets they have has not really changed (where the money could have gone).

I have to look again, somewhere buried in the details a ton of money was dumped into something as an expense since gross revenue had not quite dipped 10%.

They better not blame it on the new website.



Maybe it has something to do with a particularly embarassing legal battle.

Of course that was really an ongoing expense over the last couple of years though so maybe the bills for that were drawn from some sort of legal fund or some sort of account soley set up for that purpose?

It is interesting that there is little mention of it in TKs pre-ramble nor is it shown as an expense, though I am sure it was an expense we just don't see it transparently apparent somehow.




@Backfire:[u]

In your second to last sentence, you quoted TK about single digit or declining growth in sales. We have seen for the last couple of years a decline in sales numbers. There was a time that I bought $1200 US a year in GW products but over the last six years I have spent maybe a quarter of that amount. Why is that, is it because I have all I need or want? No, there are a alot of very appealing products, I very much want them. Is it the price? No, it's the price for entry, no one else can afford to start. Is it the value? Very much it is, why are they selling incomplete, half-baked, unfocused, clunky rules which are a product of 1970's game design and the fact that the current studio brings nothing fresh to the table.

I also find it hard to support a company that is so adversarial with the very people that have sold their products for the last 30 years by making it harder for them to sell their products!

I have more reasons as well, but so many have covered them already.


This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2014/08/05 21:59:49


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 Talizvar wrote:
What is of particular interest to me is only two sets of numbers:

Total Revenue: 2014 = 123,501 , 2013 = 134,597
It is 91.8% from what it was last year.
Actual overall income has shrunk.

Profit Before Taxation: 2014 = 12,396 , 2013 = 21,395
It is 57.9% from what it was last year.
If internal efficiencies are supposed to be vastly improved what is going on?

I have to look again, somewhere buried in the details a ton of money was dumped into something as an expense since gross revenue had not quite dipped 10%.

They better not blame it on the new website.


Kirby puts blame on "exceptional costs": see page 42 on the report. It is mostly severance payouts from large middle management layoff they had, with some "other" items which may include legal costs. I guess the website investment is in cost of sales, if it's all indeed on this financial year.

To some extent, it is also true what some people have noted, that their operating costs are not totally linear compared to revenues: thus if the revenues drop, the operating costs do not drop in same proportions.


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Backfire wrote:Financial pressure? They don't seem to think themselves they have much financial pressure, given that they just handed out dividend.


The financial pressure he's talking about is that from previous reporting periods. You can see it in previous year's reports. Wells is very honest about protecting margins.

The dividend paid out was also quite a bit smaller than previous years.

Prices - once again, I point out that they have skipped annual price hikes twice in a row now. Sure enough, new products do tend to cost more, but this is not a new development, it was same story 5-6 years ago already. Companies in panic mode are more likely to drop the prices!


The majority of GW's products sell well upon initial release and then taper off. So if they release new products at higher prices, they get the same effect as an across the board price increase. We have now had $7 a miniature fantasy releases, codexes being split into multiple hardbacks and DLC. The gorkanaut being priced at stompa levels despite being a much, much smaller kit.

and no starter set.


This is a really solid piece of ammunition they still have in the chamber.


Balance in pick up games? Two people, each with their own goals for the game, design half a board game on their own without knowing the layout of the board and hope it all works out. Good luck with that. The faster you can find like minded individuals who want the same things from the game as you, the better. 
   
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 MWHistorian wrote:
I think the release schedule could have worked if what they released was actually good. Supplements that did little or ones that no one wanted. (Black Legion and Crimson Slaughter?) If they had released codecies that got players excited instead of dropping out (Nids, Orks) then it could have worked in GW's favor. Maybe.


Just about every single CSM player wants the Crimson Slaughter supplement. It gives access to Divination. Black Legion sold exceptionally well. The Tyranid codex pity party was real, but look at them now. Tyranids have their own cheese lists rolling people at your flgs. The Ork codex has brought Ork players out of the woodwork. As far as releasing stuff that is 'actually good'. I could go line by line over each release, subjectively arguing the merits of many of them.. but no one wants to read that.

Maybe your local community thinks it had all been bad. Your Nid and Ork players have all quit, and your CSM players dont want Divination. I guess its possible? Point is, I dont think GW's troubles are stemming primarily from the content of the releases.
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*Some* people are using that stuff and enjoying it every day.

I would say that most of the 40K players among my friends, though, and that includes dozens of people, don't play every day or even every week.

They are mostly people who've been playing for years but only get in, say, between one and twenty games a year. Less than once a week for sure.

Now, if you play an average of ten times a year (due to family / other commitments / other hobbies / lack of space), but in the meantime you do still paint and stuff, what has changed?

In 5th edition, you paid £25 or so for the main book, and about once every five years you had to buy a codex for £15 or so. Call it £40 for four years of play, or £1 per game, in fact, with ten games a year.

You may or may not have bought 6th (a bunch of the friends I played at a big games meeting a few months back hadn't, and were still using the 5th ed rules till that very day, and trying to learn 6th at the last minute). But now suddenly you have to buy 7th. For £50. And a new codex, or more likely two new codexes (one plus an alternate one, like Crimson Slaughter or Ghazghull). Suddenly it's *over £100* just to be able to carry on playing with all the stuff you already own. And you can expect another edition to be along in under two years. Your cost per game just shot up from a negligible £1 to a massive £5.50... if you were one of the lucky dudes who got ten games in a year. If you only got four games in a year, or six? Well, you either gave up, and gave a load of your minis to my son (he was quite happy!), or you stuck with 5th edition (or went back to it, if you'd tried 6th and realised it wasn't great).

Price point for the codices and rules is now at the point that casual gamers are put off playing at all. That's something that has to change if GW is to survive. You can't have a mass-market non-digital game without casual gamers. And when your business model is supposedly selling to the players who want to forge a narrative rather than the competitive guys... you are fethed.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/08/05 23:59:25


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Is the problem that they're trying to model themselves on Apple? Apple is a company with a huge market, so I feel Kirby may have seen something good and decided to copy it (hence all the pointless legal battles), but that the idea doesn't work in such a niche market, so the company's gone all squiffy

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 Ian Sturrock wrote:
And when your business model is supposedly selling to the players who want to forge a narrative rather than the competitive guys... you are fethed.


I think you've just hit the most important point I haven't yet seen in any of these discussions; casual players (like myself) are only going to buy stuff as and when. If it's too expensive, not for an army I'm interested in or simply plain fetching ugly I won't buy it. Likewise if too much comes out too quickly it goes beyond my hobby budget, so I will defer buying stuff, even if I like it. And once deferred it can be ages, or never, before I buy it.

Hardcore competitive gamers have a real motivation to buy the latest, most powerful, units (or even armies) and also as many of the codices as possible, so that they can understand the meta. Unfortunately with the bloated, constantly shifting rules, lack of tournament support and emphasis on narrative, unbound games GW have alienated this market in particular.

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 Jadenim wrote:
 Ian Sturrock wrote:
And when your business model is supposedly selling to the players who want to forge a narrative rather than the competitive guys... you are fethed.


I think you've just hit the most important point I haven't yet seen in any of these discussions; casual players (like myself) are only going to buy stuff as and when. If it's too expensive, not for an army I'm interested in or simply plain fetching ugly I won't buy it. Likewise if too much comes out too quickly it goes beyond my hobby budget, so I will defer buying stuff, even if I like it. And once deferred it can be ages, or never, before I buy it.

Hardcore competitive gamers have a real motivation to buy the latest, most powerful, units (or even armies) and also as many of the codices as possible, so that they can understand the meta. Unfortunately with the bloated, constantly shifting rules, lack of tournament support and emphasis on narrative, unbound games GW have alienated this market in particular.

You've hit the nail and this could be an important nail at GW's coffin.

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 Small, Far Away wrote:
Is the problem that they're trying to model themselves on Apple? Apple is a company with a huge market, so I feel Kirby may have seen something good and decided to copy it (hence all the pointless legal battles), but that the idea doesn't work in such a niche market, so the company's gone all squiffy


Kirby has mentioned Apple couple of times in his prefaces, and GW does have some things in common with Apple:
-small product selection
-highly secretive
-run their own sales channel, ignoring most of the industry practises
-generally overpric...er, I mean, premium products.

However, I am far from sure that Apple's strategy, though wildly successful for now, is sustainable. They rely too much on being trendy and hip, and trends tend to go out.

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I think this Apple comparison is a bit of a red herring. The thread is about GW's financial position.

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That and Apple are or were pretty innovative, and didn't have the massive strain on community goodwill that GW does. Plus, they know how to advertise.

Comparing GW to Apple is largely optimistic, IMHO.

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Backfire wrote:
Herzlos wrote:
Backfire wrote:
WayneTheGame wrote:
 Hulksmash wrote:
I think part of it is that even speaking remotely in GW's defense or not stating they are going to fall apart in less than 3 years is met with cry of "White Knighing".


In general though it's only blatant dismissal of criticism as "haters" or the like that gets met with "white knighting". Just very few of the pro-GW people offer any real evidence or insight beyond "40k is booming in my area, so everything is fine" or "I think the price is fair" and then it tends to degenerate into attacks on the people who don't think GW is fine. That's always the case; the anti-GW crowd actually reference reasons, the pro-GW crowd just says "Looks fine to me!" without backing anything up...


My experience in this thread is pretty much exact opposite...


Can you cite an example of this opposite experience, where a pro-GW member references a reason and an anti-GW member claims we're doomed with no basis?


Yes. For example, my first post in the thread in page 5:

Spoiler:

I don't understand what's a big deal here.

-it's stupid piece of writing. Of course it is, Kirby's a corporate guy. Corporate propaganda pieces are always stupid and trying to spin everything in best possible light and often end up sounding hilarious. No exceptions. Did you see the letter with which Elop fired thousands of people from Microsoft? Kirby has NOTHING on Elop when it comes to stupid corporate language.

-Kirby's stepping down as CEO. Totally expected, AIUI Kirby doing the double chairs thing was always going to be somewhat temporary. Of course there is a caveat that he hints that he will continue if no suitable candidate is found, AND he will still continue as Chairman of the Board. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

-Steve Jobs comparison was surprisingly (though maybe unintentionally) adept in that Apple was and is extremely militant in using legal challenges to hunt down any actors, no matter how small, which it saw as a threat, including Apple fan sites and blogs. Hmm, sound familiar?

-GW website costed £4 million is somehow "OMG". I fail to see why. Sure it's not particularly GREAT site but exorbitant amount of money spent to seemingly crappy result is common enough in the world of corporate websites. Finnish State Railroads spent three years and 15 million euros for this site. It crashed within 3 hours of its induction...


Immediately, WayneTheGame (oh the irony given his statement here) runs up a response:

And the cavalry has arrived!


Even though my post was actually quite negative, but on this site, that's not good enough! If you do not commit yourself 100% to GW hating, you're White Knighted.


Yeah, I don't see what you see. White Knighting isn't about positivity or negativity, but on how it comes across, and you're not particularly guilty of it.

In your post, you claim that £4 million for a website isn't bad, because someone else spent £14 million on a website. But most of the commenters with experience in the industry (I've no idea what you do, but I'm a software engineer) see £4m for that website to be a huge sum, considering it's off the shelf with maybe a weeks worth of modification work. Maybe there's tonnes of behind the scenes upgrades going on that are rolled into the website budget, but on the face of it, £4 million for what's visible on games-workshop.com is an absolute joke, especially since we all know how smoothly the launch went.

On the corporate speak; no-one is commenting on the corporate speak as such; of course they'll try and put a positive spin on it. It's the whole tone and writing style of it, that makes it look more like a drunken facebook post than a corporate announcement. The professionality of the whole piece is atrocious, and I can only assume that it wasn't proofread by anyone. The chairmans pre-amble was so unprofessional that most people thought it was a hoax at first. That just isn't common in the corporate world for a business that is run properly.


It's not all doom and gloom though; hopefully the cost cutting measures will start saving them money once the one-time costs have been recovered, they are still profitable with some divisions growing, and hopefully a new CEO will have some ability to change things. There's always the possibility that Kirby won't be re-elected to the chair, or will retire completely in January. But since they've already announced the interview day I suspect the next CEO has already been chosen, so it's likely to be someone we already know of.



Backfire wrote:

Financial pressure? They don't seem to think themselves they have much financial pressure, given that they just handed out dividend.

And they borrowed to pay a divident before. It has no direct bearing on financial pressure, and presumably after the stock drop when the 3rd quarter announced no dividend they decided it was worth paying one to keep the stock price steady. The fact they've had to instigate large cost cutting measures tells us they are feeling financial pressure.

Prices - once again, I point out that they have skipped annual price hikes twice in a row now. Sure enough, new products do tend to cost more, but this is not a new development, it was same story 5-6 years ago already.


New products used to cost a small amount more (a few %), with prices of everything else being brought into line every June, now we're seeing that every new product costs more than the previous months, so instead of 1 rise a year, we're seeing 12. We're also seeing some huge jumps and repackages, with prices jumping up by as much as 70%. There's no way the price increases haven't escalated. And they look worse, since the old products are now significantly cheaper than the new ones with no obvious reason as far as new customers are concerned (why does a Morkanaught cost as much as a Stompa? Why does that codex cost 50% more than that one?)

Companies in panic mode are more likely to drop the prices!

Have you got a citation? I thought the opposite was true. Companies in panic mode raise prices.

Rushing products - IIRC, they aren't actually releasing any more miniatures annually than they did before. They are just spread along the year more evenly. They are producing more codices and supplements, though.
Decline in quality - in what way? Technically, no. Artistically, that is always debatable.


A lot of the products, particularly the publications seem rushed; the editing error rate seems to be much higher now, with stuff that shouldn't have even made it to playtesting (pages of WHFB text in a 40K codex, the Dark Angels codex not having rules for the LE character), the apparent early release of 7th Edition.



 Wayshuba wrote:

To your question, I already said that I wouldn't expect stellar results coming in next period from 7th edition - other reports of other "smaller" game systems outselling 40k 7th by 2 to 1 and as high as 7 to 1 speak volumes for the market shift.


What are these reports? If they are selling so well, why are they "smaller"?


Because we're talking about the games, not the company. Smaller games are games that are physically smaller i.e. Zombicide or X-Wing. These companies will catch up on GW eventually, but it might take a while due to GW's market dominance and 20 years head start.

And personally, I do not expect a big upswing either because of 7th edition - the ruleset came out too soon and too unexpectedly, and the starter set is same one which most people who wanted it, have already bought. However, I do not also see a huge death spiral starting. All the signs point to that they will be doing what they have been doing until now - largely flat or slowly declining sales. Even Kirby did not promise more than "single digit growth".


I'd agree with that, the BRB didn't seem to do too well, but I think with the 2 box sets containing a mini rulebook will have a pretty reasonable impact. From what I can gather, the starter set sales were always a lot higher than the BRB, because it's more convenient and provides better value (and extra £15-20 gets you some starter armies)


Regarding the accelerated collapse only applying to tech firms; it must also apply to social companies. You need 2+ players to play 40K (I've never heard of anyone coming up with social rules for it), so it's value is partially dependent on what other people do (we'll ignore painters for now), and if you can't get a game of 40K, it has less value than some other system you can get a game of. If it becomes harder to get a game of 40K because there are less players or it's too time consuming, then it's value diminishes.

In the past, it's main value was that it was ubiquitous; you could turn up to pretty much any games event and find an opponent, but if players are leaving faster than joining for other systems, it'll lose that ability (whilst at my local club everyone still has a 40K army in a box somewhere, it's dropped from the top spot in terms of what people want to play). Once it hits a point where it's hard to actually get an opponent (like WHFB already has), then it's decline will become much faster.

For example, look at what happened to bebo, hi5 and myspace once everyone moved onto the next new thing. They all went from being huge to irrelevant almost overnight. The same happens with gaming companies.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2014/08/06 08:06:09


 
   
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 liquidjoshi wrote:
Comparing GW to Apple is largely optimistic, IMHO.


I'd use the word delusional.

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 H.B.M.C. wrote:
 liquidjoshi wrote:
Comparing GW to Apple is largely optimistic, IMHO.


I'd use the word delusional.

Delusional perception.
This would justify from GW's perspective to make no market research and not asking customers what they want.

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Backfire wrote:


Financial pressure? They don't seem to think themselves they have much financial pressure, given that they just handed out dividend.


Closing regional HQs. Moving to one man stores. Taking on £4.5m in "exceptional costs". Pulling a lot of products from the channel to sell direct to make more margin. No, they are feeling the financial pressure and it is obvious. The dividend payment-let me ask this, how much did Kirby make on that dividend payment?

Backfire wrote:
Prices - once again, I point out that they have skipped annual price hikes twice in a row now. Sure enough, new products do tend to cost more, but this is not a new development, it was same story 5-6 years ago already. Companies in panic mode are more likely to drop the prices!


As the CHS lawsuit showed, most of GWs sales of a product come from it's initial release. So they have constantly escalated pricing on new releases, with each batch higher than the previous one. As I have indicated on many other threads here prior to these financials in discussions about companies in panic mode/death spiral, heavy price increases are actually the common reaction at this point. This is one early sign I have long looked for when analyzing troubled companies. When I see constant hikes of 50%+ (and GW has done 70%-100% in quite a few cases this last year), that is generally a warning sign. No sane company, in good shape, pushes 50% price increases in one go on customers.

Backfire wrote:
Rushing products - IIRC, they aren't actually releasing any more miniatures annually than they did before. They are just spread along the year more evenly. They are producing more codices and supplements, though.
Decline in quality - in what way? Technically, no. Artistically, that is always debatable.


Quality of printed books has gone down the tubes in the last year. Riddled with stupid mistakes and very little "crunch" and lots of fluff. Even the 7th edition books have a lot of errors and holes.

As for the quality of the miniatures - they have gone down to (and I am not talking aesthetically, which is subjective). Special plastic characters used to have options with them (see "Space Marine Commander"), now they are all mono-pose with no options. The Imperial Knight? Poor engineering versus kits such as those from DreamForge, yet GW is supposed to produce "the best miniatures in the world". Aesthetically one may prefer the Imperial Knight, but at least with DreamForge you have pose-able legs, detachable and pose-able weapon arms.

Backfire wrote:
Their operating expenses actually dropped compared to previous year, even with the "exceptional costs". Remains to be seen, of course, how "exceptional" they were. At very least though, they probably don't have to pay so much severance packages next year.


Their operating expenses need to drop to stay profitable. However, as I noted earlier in this thread, that works as long as you can stay ahead of revenue declines. If GW does in fact stay on the current course of decline, as I discussed above, and falls to around £100 in gross revenue for the next corporate year, they will have to cut more than £21m in costs just to turn a profit. That is starting to reach an area where you just can't cut that fast and stay ahead of the curve.

Backfire wrote:
Duh, in 5th and 6th edition releases, they released the edition quite early in the financial year, complete with starter set (which is probably their biggest selling single product). Now, they had just a week or two worth of sales of the basic rulebook, and no starter set.


Actually, the typical releases for 40k were in July (3rd-July 1998, 4th-July 2004, 5th-July 2004) except for 6th edition which was in June and 7th edition which was in May. In other words, 40k editions were always released at the near beginning of their corporate reporting year where 7th was rushed out to catch the end of the year. It is pretty obvious from looking at the 7th edition books as well, that it was rushed out the door to make the end of year period.


Backfire wrote:
What are these reports? If they are selling so well, why are they "smaller"?

And personally, I do not expect a big upswing either because of 7th edition - the ruleset came out too soon and too unexpectedly, and the starter set is same one which most people who wanted it, have already bought. However, I do not also see a huge death spiral starting. All the signs point to that they will be doing what they have been doing until now - largely flat or slowly declining sales. Even Kirby did not promise more than "single digit growth".


Two large distributors/stores have reported that Infinity Operation: Icestorm pre-orders (only available for two weeks now and still three weeks to go) has already outsold 40k 7th edition by 2 to 1 (with more time to go) and another one reported Dystopian Wars outselling 40k 7th edition by a factor of 7 to 1. When GWs bread-and-butter is 40k and Corvus Belli and Spartan Games products are outselling the big boy's main product this is pretty indicative of what is coming for GW in the very near future.

When I said smaller, I mean in company size versus GW. GW is not going to die from competition because of another big boy; they are going to die from a group of smaller companies that each end up eating a portion of their market share and revenue until their is none left.

And all signs are pointing to something different now. Worldwide Games Day is dead (exchanged for one Warhammer Fest in the UK). They have closed all their regional HQs. They have moved almost HALF of their products to online direct only. They have gone to one-man stores. None of this was typical over the last ten years. So, all is not the same as it has been for a long time.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/08/06 09:53:18


 
   
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Backfire wrote:
 Wayshuba wrote:
Okay, guess it was time to elaborate on why I keep saying what I am saying. Most of the time these trends can be tracked overall based on changes of sales growth once the downward trend starts. Assuming GW maintains a similar change ratio YoY from this point forward (YoY growth change plus acceleration rate of 7.9%) this chart shows the picture.

Year Revenues Growth Change
2011 £123.1 N/A
2012 £131.0 +6.4
2013 £134.6 +2.7
2014 £123.5 -11.6
2015 £ 99.4 -19.5 Cost target to profit: £86.8m - cut from previous year £21.2m
2016 £ 72.2 -27.4 Cost target to profit: £63.1m - cut from previous year £23.7m (total from present £44.9m)
2017 £ 46.7 -35.3 Cost target to profit: £40.8m - cut from previous year £22.3m (total from present £67.2m)

The problem with viewing longer term trends is founded in the assumptions that the factors that comprise those trends maintain themselves going forward. What is important to try and identify is when those underlying factors have begun to crumble, and once that happens, the previous trends no longer apply and the factors of collapse are taken into account. We probably could have done a ten year analysis on TSR and said things are going to always be the same, right up until the last two years of there collapse. Same with Wang Computer, Digital Equipment, and other similar companies at this point in existence.

Given that GW is really down to their two core product lines, released their "heavy hitter" products over the last year and still experienced a sizable decline against a market that is growing, and do not have an unusual circumstance, such as the LOTR bubble popping, I think it is safe to say the crux has been crossed.

The numbers above reflect a consistent decline based on change in sales growth and the current 7.9% change acceleration rate. However, history has shown this is rarely going to be the case and the acceleration rate should increase year over year.


"Acceleration rate increase" is usually in cases where the company's technological products become obsolete. Such as with company which produces cars, computers, OS's or phones. There it is very much possible to fall into "death spiral" when company's sales fall as the customers abandon the product since there are so much more capable ones around, and with reduced cash flow, the company is unable to produce a killer product - or tries, but without proper resources and rushed development, it is so bad that it only serves to accelerate the decline.

However, such a development is not really applicable to GW. They are not technologically obsolete: I guess one could argue that their games are not as good as competitors, but in tabletop world this is not anywhere as big a factor as in purely technological solutions where performance has obvious and reliable yardsticks. Another thing is that GW products have very large secondary market. Thus, the sales do not give accurate picture to how much GW games are played: recently I bought a GW miniature which was made in 1996. No way I'd be buying a phone or computer made in the '90s. Even though their sales in real ££ terms are comparable to what they were in turn of the century, I'd bet there are actually more active players today than then. Playerbase might be shrinking from top days, but it is not going to go away immediately. Hence, there is unlikely to be mass exodus of customers comparable as happened with say, Atari, or Kodak, or Nokia since the business is just completely different. Much more likely scenario is the slow dribbling down of sales, as old timers gradually quit and recruitment of new players slows to a trickle.

Also as I pointed out earlier, there is no ongoing evidence of this accelerated death spiral you keep talking about. Kirby reported in January half-year report, that their sales began to decline late in previous year (presumably after Tau release?). This claim is supported by numbers which show a slowdown in 2013 second half-year. Since the latest half-year did not show decline compared to previous one, it does not seem that we're in the middle of a huge sales drop-off. Again, the evidence points out to flat or slow decline of sales - exactly as before. Now, it is of course possible that this massive collapse only begins immediately after they have released 7th edition, but that'd be quite graituous timing, don't you agree?

Third, again you claim a "growing market". Are you really sure? Didn't we talk this through last time around?

It's generally tech, but it also went to steel minimills and you could argue that the gaming system is close enough to a videogame platform on a macro level.

The fall of many of these companies started the same way: not catering for 'crappy' customers; someone else did, moved upmarket and made the original irrelevant.

It isn't really obsoletion but irrelevance. In tech, worse technology often wins out because the 'more advanced' tech has overshot the customer.

hello 
   
 
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