Chicago - Crime Rate Drops as Concealed Carry Applications Surge.

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**Breotan**

So, here's some early data coming in from the Windy City after they were forced (FORCED! I say) to issue carry permits to citizens and allow them to purchase and "bear" arms. The guest celebrity quotes are my editorial additions to the article. You want to read it without them? Click the link.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/24/chicago-crime-rate-drops-as-concealed-carry-gun-pe/

kelly-riddell wrote:City sees fewer homicides, robberies, burglaries, car thefts as Illinois residents take arms

An 86-year-old Illinois man with a concealed carry permit fired his weapon at an armed robbery suspect fleeing police last month, stopping the man in his tracks and allowing the police to make an arrest.

Law enforcement authorities described the man as “a model citizen” who “helped others avoid being victims” at an AT&T store outside Chicago where he witnessed the holdup. The man, whose identity was withheld from the press, prevented others from entering the store during the theft.

Police said the robber harassed customers and pistol-whipped one.

Bill Maher wrote:You don't need a weapon to protect yourself.

Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in Chicago has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In the first quarter, the city’s homicide rate was at a 56-year low.

“It isn’t any coincidence crime rates started to go down when concealed carry was permitted. Just the idea that the criminals don’t know who’s armed and who isn’t has a deterrence effect,” said Richard Pearson, executive director of the Illinois State Rifle Association. “The police department hasn’t changed a single tactic — they haven’t announced a shift in policy or of course — and yet you have these incredible numbers.”

Stephen King wrote:How many have to die before we will give up these dangerous toys?

As of July 29 the state had 83,183 applications for concealed carry and had issued 68,549 licenses. By the end of the year, Mr. Pearson estimates, 100,000 Illinois citizens will be packing. When Illinois began processing requests in January, gun training and shooting classes — which are required for the application — were filling up before the rifle association was able to schedule them, Mr. Pearson said.

“The temperature would be 40 below, and you’d have these guys out on the range, having to crack off the ice from their guns to see the target,” Mr. Pearson said. “But they’d do it, because they were that passionate about getting their license.”

The demand has slowed this summer, but Mr. Pearson expects the state to issue about 300,000 concealed carry permits when all is said and done.

Illinois became the 50th state in the nation to issue concealed weapons permits. An individual permit costs about $600 and requires at least 16 hours of classes.

The Chicago Police Department has credited better police work as a reason for the lower crime rates this year. Police Superintendent Garry F. McCarthy noted the confiscation of more than 1,300 illegal guns in the first three months of the year, better police training and “intelligent policing strategies.”

The Chicago Police Department didn’t respond to a request for comment from The Washington Times.

However, the impact of concealed carry can’t be dismissed. Instead of creating more crimes, which many gun control advocates warn, increased concealed carry rates have coincided with lower rates of crime.

A July study by the Crime Prevention Research Center found that 11.1 million Americans have permits to carry concealed weapons, a 147 percent increase from 4.5 million seven years ago. Meanwhile, homicide and other violent crime rates have dropped by 22 percent.

“There’s a lot of academic research that’s been done on this, and if you look at the peer-reviewed studies, the bottom line is a large majority find a benefit of concealed carry on crime rates — and, at worst, there’s no cost,” said John Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Research Center based in Swarthmore, Pennsylvania. “You can deter criminals with longer prison sentences and penalties, but arming people with the right to defend themselves with a gun is also a deterrence.”

Within Illinois, Cook County, which encompasses Chicago, has the state’s largest number of concealed carry applications, with 28,552 requests, according to the county’s website. Accounting for population, however, less than 1 percent are carrying.

Mason County has the top per-capita rate in Illinois, with 14 percent of its residents holding concealed carry licenses, followed by Shelby County, with 9 percent.

“When I talk to folks that are supporters of concealed carry here, a lot of them want to get their permits so they can keep a gun in the car just so they have it when they travel to bigger towns and cities,” said Shelby County Sheriff Michael Miller.

Shelby County is in southwestern Illinois, about an hour and 45 minutes driving time from St. Louis. Its crime rate is low, and the majority of charges are domestic-related, Sheriff Miller said. He doesn’t anticipate concealed carry to change the statistics much.

“These are folks who just want to exercise their Second Amendment rights,” Sheriff Miller said. “Luckily, we don’t have a gang problem or any serious violent crime. Our types are just rednecks that like to hunt and fish.”

Mason County Sheriff Paul Gann said it’s too early to tell whether an increased carry rate will have an influence on crime rates.

“What I can tell you is we haven’t seen a spike in crime,” said Mr. Gann. “We haven’t seen a spike in anything that’s gun-related — brandishing a firearm, shootings, robberies, nothing. These are law-abiding individuals.”

Barack Obama wrote:I don’t believe people should to be able to own guns.

From a national perspective, Florida has the most active concealed carry permits, at nearly 1.3 million. Texas is second, with just over 708,000. Hawaii, at 183, has the fewest of states whose data were available.

At 300,000 concealed carry licenses, Illinois would compare with Virginia, which has 363,274, and Alabama, with 379,917.

And one more celebrity quote for the road.

Jackie Mason wrote:Anybody who's in favor of gun control is a fething moron.

**Slarg232**

Dakka is quite liberal as a collective, so I'mma gonna go make some popcorn.

**Breotan**

You sure you don't want some of mine? I made extra. Real butter, too.

**Peregrine**

CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION.

If you look at crime statistics for Chicago you'll see that the rates vary 10-15% each year. Granted, this is less than the supposed 20-25% drop, but it's not as simple as "more guns = 20% less crime". And also note that the statistic is crimes that lead to arrests. That second part is very important, a robbery where a suspect is never arrested doesn't count. So the easiest way to reduce that number isn't to give out concealed handgun permits, it's to have all of the cops be lazy and spend their days at the donut shop instead of trying to arrest people. If they're especially lazy you might even get a 100% drop in the crime rate!

Also relevant is the drop in the murder rate. Since a lot of murders aren't going to give the victim time to get their own gun out and fight back it is unlikely that the chance of the victim having a gun would make much of an impact compared to robberies where the victim has plenty of opportunities to fight back and access to a weapon is a huge risk. And yet the murder rate has also dropped significantly. This suggests that the lower crime rate is part of an overall trend of less motivation to commit crimes and/or better police work, not guns.

**DrunkPhilisoph**

Hmm, interesting. Are there any official statistics that can be publicly accessed?

**Smacks**

Urgh! more guns? It's an obsession with you guys. Obviously they do work, crime is down, but you you could also lower crime by keeping everyone sedated etc... The real question is at what cost? Now you've got a whole city full of chekhov's guns. And you never know when some hot head is gonna blow your brains out for stealing his parking space. "woo freedom..."

**Slarg232**

Peregrine wrote:
CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION.

If you look at crime statistics for Chicago you'll see that the rates vary 10-15% each year. Granted, this is less than the supposed 20-25% drop, but it's not as simple as "more guns = 20% less crime". And also note that the statistic is crimes that lead to arrests. That second part is very important, a robbery where a suspect is never arrested doesn't count. So the easiest way to reduce that number isn't to give out concealed handgun permits, it's to have all of the cops be lazy and spend their days at the donut shop instead of trying to arrest people. If they're especially lazy you might even get a 100% drop in the crime rate!

Also relevant is the drop in the murder rate. Since a lot of murders aren't going to give the victim time to get their own gun out and fight back it is unlikely that the chance of the victim having a gun would make much of an impact compared to robberies where the victim has plenty of opportunities to fight back and access to a weapon is a huge risk. And yet the murder rate has also dropped significantly. This suggests that the lower crime rate is part of an overall trend of less motivation to commit crimes and/or better police work, not guns.

Except that there hasn't been a change in police policies, according to the article.

**TheCustomLime**

Smacks wrote:
Urgh! more guns? It's an obsession with you guys. Obviously they do work, crime is down, but you you could also lower crime by keeping everyone sedated etc... The real question is at what cost? Now you've got a whole city full of chekhov's guns. And you never know when some hot head is gonna blow your brains out for stealing his parking space. "woo freedom..."

Do you have any data to back up this claim that more concealed carry permits leads to more homicide?

**Slarg232**

Smacks wrote:
Urgh! more guns? It's an obsession with you guys. Obviously they do work, crime is down, but you you could also lower crime by keeping everyone sedated etc... The real question is at what cost? Now you've got a whole city full of chekhov's guns. And you never know when some hot head is gonna blow your brains out for stealing his parking space. "woo freedom..."

If someone tries to kill you, well you try to kill them right back.

**Kilkrazy**

DrunkPhilisoph wrote:
Hmm, interesting. Are there any official statistics that can be publicly accessed?

The big problem with the debate on guns in the USA is that there is no reliable data to support either side.

**Breotan**

Kilkrazy wrote:
DrunkPhilisoph wrote:
Hmm, interesting. Are there any official statistics that can be publicly accessed?

The big problem with the debate on guns in the USA is that there is no reliable data to support either side.

Well, this article certainly seems to suggest otherwise.

But I think you'd need to dig deep into Wisconson's web site to find any official statistics - even then they're likely two or more years old. I've no idea if Chicago has their data publicly available or not.

Smacks wrote:
And you never know when some hot head is gonna blow your brains out for stealing his parking space. "woo freedom..."

Because that's really a thing, right?

**dogma**

“The temperature would be 40 below, and you’d have these guys out on the range, having to crack off the ice from their guns to see the target,”

Why would there be ice on their guns, and how would that prevent a shooter from seeing a target?

Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in Chicago has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In the first quarter, the city’s homicide rate was at a 56-year low.

The homicide rate in Chicago began falling prior to the legalization of CC.

**Smacks**

TheCustomLime wrote:
Do you have any data to back up this claim that more concealed carry permits leads to more homicide?

I made no such claim. The issue is not concealed carry, it's guns in general. You have too many guns, and you think the answer is more guns. Here's some data for you.

The UK: hand guns have been illegal for 18 years. Number of spree killings in the past 18 years = 1 (carried out with a shotgun).

The USA: hands out gun permits like candy...

Need I go on? I can think of three spree killings that I read about this year alone. I remember looking at the Wikipedia page for spree killings, and the USA had to have its own page separate from the rest of the world because there was so many. I'm happy for you that you got more guns to play with, maybe it's just the best you can make of a bad situation. But it IS a bad situation. Throwing more guns into the mix isn't ever going to solve it.

**SilverMK2**

Guns don't kill people, localised organ and tissue damage, blood loss and/or shock do!

**Peregrine**

Slarg232 wrote:
Except that there hasn't been a change in police policies, according to the article.

The claim of "no police policies" comes from a pro-gun organization, not directly from the police. The claim is based entirely on the fact that the police haven't announced any major policy changes, which is pretty weak evidence since not all changes would necessarily get a major public announcement. The police, meanwhile, claim that new strategies are responsible. And while you could claim that the police are anti-gun and want to take all of the credit away from pro-gun groups (just like the pro-gun groups have a strong incentive to claim that credit and dismiss anything the police might have done) it does fairly strongly suggest that there have in fact been changes in what the police are doing.

**Hordini**

Imagine that.

Also, I wonder if part of the police's "new strategies" includes issuing concealed carry permits (since the County Sheriff is the LEO responsible for that).

And yes, correlation doesn't necessarily entail causation, but correlation doesn't preclude causation either. It's win-win for the police, either way.

**sebster**

Heh. So if someone points out the simple statistical story that US has a homicide rate way out of kilter with any other developed country, and the only factor in which they are unique is their firearms, people will dismiss that as too simple. But then they'll happily post crap the OP's effort, where he reads that there was a decrease in crime in Chicago, and doesn't even stop to consider that perhaps crime in Chicago was already on a downward trend and a 20% decrease is actually business as usual.

It'd be funny, if the same stupid bs wasn't maintained constantly in every single gun thread. I mean, a guy tells you he's going to punch himself in the head and he does it and you laugh as much out of shock as anything... but then him and his mates do it again and again, day after day, and it gets really sad really quickly.

And the thing is, I'm not even anti-gun. I'm just anti-stupid, and so many gun arguments that get trotted out are just so fething stupid.

DrunkPhilisoph wrote:
Hmm, interesting. Are there any official statistics that can be publicly accessed?

Yes. And they will tell you that from a very high peak in 1989, crime in Chicago has dropped steadily and significantly.

This link will give you figures from the early 60s up to 2013, and page 13 will show you the overall numbers is easy to read graphs, while reading through the text will give you theft and robbery rates, most dropping between 60% and 75%.
http://images.politico.com/global/2013/12/15/48yearsofcrime_final_ispsworkingpaper023.pdf

It isn't just a Chicago thing either, other major cities have seen similar or even greater drops in the crime rate. New York has seen a drop in car thefts of greater than 90%. Exactly why this has happened is much debated. One leading theory, and the one that makes most sense to me, is the tipping point theory - that a variety of factors that were in play (urban renewal, increased policing funding and more police street presence, improved policing methods & tech, harsher sentencing etc) and that in the early 90s these factors reached a tipping point where crime decreased, at which point that led to increasing renewal, more police resources for each crime etc, and so on, leading to even less crime, and so on.

**Daemonhammer**

I feel like the article is slightly biased, but who am i to judge.

**Sasori**

Quick question, was that Obama quote taken out of Context?

I don't remember him saying that, and it seems like something that would be taken out of context.. If not, wow.

**sebster**

Sasori wrote:
Quick question, was that Obama quote taken out of Context?

I don't remember him saying that, and it seems like something that would be taken out of context.. If not, wow.

A guy who was a professor at the same time as Obama at University of Chicago claims Obama said. That guy was John Lott, who is a full time gun rights lobbyist. And the quote is contradicted by Obama's statements that are actually on the record. So the amount of believability in that quote is basically completely fething zero.

That it would be spread around guns rights activists anyway shouldn't come as any great surprise. There is a basic disinterest in reality within the community. Not that anti-gun groups are much better... leading to the really woeful state of debate you get in the issue.

**Hordini**

At the very least, it would certainly seem to suggest that concealed carry doesn't cause an increase in crime, which is something anti-gun types like to make noise about every time a new state allows concealed carry. They've been wrong every other time as well, of course, and now that Illinois is the 50th state to allow CCW, I suppose we're probably done hearing about it until the US gets a 51st state.

**Ashiraya**

Breotan wrote:

Jackie Mason wrote:Anybody who's in favor of gun control is a fething moron.

Well that was entirely necessary. (?)

**Frazzled**

Breotan wrote:
You sure you don't want some of mine? I made extra. Real butter, too.

The first time I made popcorn with butter when we first were assimilated by Team Wienie, TBone distracted me by barking while Rodney took a perfect swan dive right into the bowl.

If you look at the stats, outside of a few neighborhoods, Chicago is not really any more violent than any other US city. Thos neighborhoods however are a killing zone.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

SilverMK2 wrote:
Guns don't kill people, localised organ and tissue damage, blood loss and/or shock do!

Guns don't kill people. Husbands who come home early from work, kill people.

**kronk**

Kilkrazy wrote:
DrunkPhilisoph wrote:
Hmm, interesting. Are there any official statistics that can be publicly accessed?

The big problem with the debate on guns in the USA is that there is no reliable data to support either side.

It's best to err on the side of freedom!

**d-usa**

Don't we have a monthly post about how Chicago is going to hell and getting worse every month this year?

So how can we have "Chicago is horrible and the criminals love it" and "Criminals hate Chicago now" happening at the same time?

**kronk**

Chicago is a hell hole.

But there is plenty of beer.

**Dreadclaw69**

Smacks wrote:
Urgh! more guns? It's an obsession with you guys. Obviously they do work, crime is down, but you you could also lower crime by keeping everyone sedated etc... The real question is at what cost? Now you've got a whole city full of chekhov's guns. And you never know when some hot head is gonna blow your brains out for stealing his parking space. "woo freedom..."

This line gets trotted out every time gun rights are restored to the population and guess what? The streets don't run red with blood

Smacks wrote:
The USA: hands out gun permits like candy...

Except that they aren't. I live in a gun friendly State (Indiana), anyone with a gun permit;
- has passed a criminal background check
- is not an alcohol/drug abuser
- has no convictions (felony or misdemeanor) for domestic violence
- is not a felon
- has not been convicted for the unsafe handling of a firearm
- is not prone to violent or emotionally unstable conduct
- does not suffer from mental health issues

**EDIT**
For the sake of those unwilling or unable to use their critical reasoning abilities please insert "has not been convicted" where appropriate

**d-usa**

To be fair, a couple of these "doesn't suffer from..." rely on self reporting.

Dreadclaw69 wrote:

- is not an alcohol/drug abuser
- is not prone to violent or emotionally unstable conduct
- does not suffer from mental health issues

**Dreadclaw69**

d-usa wrote:
To be fair, a couple of these "doesn't suffer from..." rely on self reporting.

Dreadclaw69 wrote:

- is not an alcohol/drug abuser
- is not prone to violent or emotionally unstable conduct
- does not suffer from mental health issues

Except the alcohol/drug abuser and violent/unstable conduct isn't, it is defined by convictions with these as a factor

**d-usa**

Dreadclaw69 wrote:
d-usa wrote:
To be fair, a couple of these "doesn't suffer from..." rely on self reporting.

Dreadclaw69 wrote:

- is not an alcohol/drug abuser
- is not prone to violent or emotionally unstable conduct
- does not suffer from mental health issues

Except the alcohol/drug abuser and violent/unstable conduct isn't, it is defined by convictions with these as a factor

So anyone with a gun permit could in fact be prone to violent or emotional conduct, be an alcohol and drug abuser, and suffer from mental health issues.

Just because I haven't been convicted of abusing alcohol or drugs doesn't mean that I couldn't be carrying drunk right now.