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I'm just wondering if and when GW finally decides to ask consumers what they want (and if not directly then by finally doing market research or surveys) will it be too little too late.

agnosto wrote:70% chance of the company becoming distressed within the next two years ...
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/GAW.L--Probability_Of_Bankruptcy

Last time i visited that page it was 71%. So that's a good sign, right?

H.B.M.C. wrote:

Exactly! If you don't like it, don't buy it!

Nothing says exclusive client base like Out of Print.

 Fango wrote:
Since the lawsuit, we've seen a 'backlash' of sorts by GW to convert or drop all nebulous or non-copyright-able IP...a 'baring of the gates' or 'boarding up the windows' of sorts. Some of these knee-jerk decisions almost seem like they are punishing their fan-base..."See? See what you made us do?".

I call this the "Be careful what you wish for!" principle. Many times we've wanted GW to do something or for them to be jolted into action by some event, only for them to take the less consumer friendly road. Yes, they stopped doing the thing we wanted them to stop doing, but the replacement isn't better.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
You know how most companies respond to growth in their competition? Leveraging their market position to maintain dominance...

This has been a consistent failure of GW for some number of years. Given how they use their license (everything from computer games to RPGs) it is astonishing how they have not used these avenues of attack (so to speak) to further enhance their own gains.

Where were the Dawn of War related releases when those games were coming out? Why wasn't there a Heroes of Kronus box with unique miniatures (accompanied by rules in WD) for the heroes in that game? What about DoW II? Why no cross-promotion with FFG for the RPG's? It can only help them to do so. The Ultramarine movie, as terrible as it turned out, got nothing. There was no miniature release to go with it. FFG did more with that release, putting out a brief 3-4 page set of rules for a relic and a few other things related to the movie, and it was free.

The problem lies in the fact that GW sees their licensed products not as an opportunity to spread their influence and brand but as something to sit back and collect money from. How else do you explain the scattershot way they recently gave out the 40K license to any two-bit mobile developer? A lot of money in licensing fees for no effort.

If they'd put it even a modicum of effort to leverage these outside releases over the past decade things could be very different.

I find myself wishing that one of the major investment talking heads, one that the investment managers would see, would do a bit on GW's lackluster performance. Something like "Dear Fund Managers, your representatives on GW's board are either clueless, careless, or complicit."

Sadly, I doubt that will ever happen.

BairdEC wrote:
I find myself wishing that one of the major investment talking heads, one that the investment managers would see, would do a bit on GW's lackluster performance. Something like "Dear Fund Managers, your representatives on GW's board are either clueless, careless, or complicit."

Sadly, I doubt that will ever happen.

It'd be great to see someone go all Olive Garden on GW.

Schmapdi wrote:

BairdEC wrote:
I find myself wishing that one of the major investment talking heads, one that the investment managers would see, would do a bit on GW's lackluster performance. Something like "Dear Fund Managers, your representatives on GW's board are either clueless, careless, or complicit."

Sadly, I doubt that will ever happen.

It'd be great to see someone go all Olive Garden on GW.

Isn't Olive Garden still hurting bad?

 Ferrum_Sanguinis wrote:

Schmapdi wrote:

BairdEC wrote:
I find myself wishing that one of the major investment talking heads, one that the investment managers would see, would do a bit on GW's lackluster performance. Something like "Dear Fund Managers, your representatives on GW's board are either clueless, careless, or complicit."

Sadly, I doubt that will ever happen.

It'd be great to see someone go all Olive Garden on GW.

Isn't Olive Garden still hurting bad?

I just mean an outside investor come out with a HUGE report on the many, many failings of GW. (as was done to Olive Garden last year)

http://www.businessinsider.com/starboard-transforming-darden-restaurants-2014-9

Sean_OBrien wrote:

Talys wrote:

I think gamers are offended that GW treats their pocketbooks in the same way that OPEC does. I'm not sure why this offends people, as most other businesses do the same thing -- whether it's Apple, Microsoft, KFC, your cable provider, cell phone provider, the post office, or taxi company. I mean, these companies don't want to be your friend... they want to maximize the amount of money they can get from you

You know how most companies respond to growth in their competition? Leveraging their market position to maintain dominance...

OPEC is a perfect example of it. High oil prices makes oil sands and shale economically viable. How does OPEC respond? By slashing the price of oil to the point where it isn't nearly as viable for the competition. Considering the real production costs GW has compared to the retail price they sell at - it would be quite feasible for them to make their competition no longer viable, strictly from an economic stand point.

OPEC doesn't control the price of oil, only the supply produced by its member nations. Global oil production is at an all time high, not because of OPEC production, but because of US (shale oil) and Canadian (oil sands) supplies. Neither country is a member nation.

Currently, OPEC must decide whether to *maintain* production, or to constrain supply to reduce it. The practical problem of supply constraint is that nations like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have 95% and 80% of their GDP in oil (if I recall correctly, these are the latest figures; Saudi used to be 90%+). By constraining their supply, they reduce both short AND medium term profits, as the US and Canada won't reduce its production. In fact, if anything, North American production is poised to increase.

Concurrently, there is an unexpectedly weak demand for oil, globally -- something that's out of the control of OPEC as well. So, OPEC has made the decision to milk the golden goose now, because a crapload of money now is still a crapload of money, even if it is a smaller crapload.

At some point, in the not unforeseeable future, the global demand for oil will drop. That's a fact, as gasoline automobiles are continually becoming more energy efficient, and vehicles powered by or augmented by means other than fossil fuels are a reality, and will only get better.

Sean_OBrien wrote:

Talys wrote:


In reality, a company always knows what its own supply curve looks like, but it's impossible to know exactly what the demand curve for a product like 40k is, because you can't go back in time and try a different price under identical conditions. So, they need to do a guessing game to optimize their profit.

In my opinion, if GW could increase net profits by lowering prices, they would do so. However, also in my opinion, if they could maintain profits **or even lose a little** by reducing both price and quantity, they would do this. The thinking is that, if $50 is the best we can do, let's not do any more work than we have to, to make that $50. If we can do 25% less work and make $48 of profit, well, let's do that instead.

That is a theory that is often floated - but doesn't actually have much evidence to back it up (in terms of that actually being GW's master plan).

If you go back and look at the expenses over time - they haven't changed much in recent years. Since expenses are the only real measure of "work" being done - they are doing the same amount of work, just getting less out of it. Since 2006, they have had bills to pay to the amount of £110 million +/- £3 million each year.

They also demonstrate an almost irrational desire to do more work (cutting off independent stockists from many items, opening retail stores only to have to shut them down a year or two later, relocating manufacturing and distribution centers...several times, multiple incarnations of a failing magazine, several website redesigns, lawsuits, lack of market research...).

No, GW tilts at windmills. Quite often, their customers are the giants.

Expenses aren't really a good metric of work done. If I get paid $200,000 this year, and get paid $400,000 next year, did I do more or less work? All it means is, the company paid me more.

I don't quite see it the same way as you regarding the web-only items. If they were core items, I'd agree. However, they are all discontinued items, and metal/finecast that GW doesn't particularly want to make more of (I don't know if they ever do, once they run out, to be frank -- some items seem to have been out of stock for.. ever). From the store's perspective, they aren't willing to stock a range of these (because let's be honest, most ofthese models sell very poorly), and if they aren't willing to take the risk stocking them, why should they have the reward of being able to mark them up and sell them as they need them?

Besides, stores can order them -- it's just at a very small discount from MSRP, which just doesn't work for most stores. I have one store that will order in the web-only items, but they won't discount it at all for me (and the other stuff, they sell at 20%+ discount from MSRP).

Ferrum_Sanguinis wrote:

Talys wrote:

Laughing Man wrote:

 Ferrum_Sanguinis wrote:
For comparison, how is PP doing financially right now? Do we have info on that?

Given they're a privately held company, nothing concrete. They pretty uniformly state that business is booming every time they're asked though.

Well, of course what company is ever going to say anything else? The best way to gauge their performance is to go and ask FLGS owners. Another way to tell is to look at product placement. The best-selling products will be placed in the areas of highest visibility, and as you enter the store. The worst selling products are tucked away in the back. In my area, a lot of people play PP games, but the PP sales are not spectacular. It's a company everyone loves to love, but they're more in love with the idea of a GW alternative than actually anything PP does or makes -- or at least, if they do love PP, they sure don't throw much money at it.

I too can only speak from personal experience: When I first started 40k back in late 2010.early 2011, only I and one other friend knew about PP and treated them as a big joke, basically 40k wannabes with with we saw as bad models (we mostly saw the Hordes line). When the LA battlebunker was still open there was a group of ten guys we used to play with who likewise, held a similar opinion of PP (it was the first time I heard someone mention "page 5")

Now flash forward to now and those of my friends that still play tabletop games have switched to Warmachine, were they sing its praises compared to 40k. A couple years ago around a few months after he LA battlebunker had become a one man store I walked into a FLGS and found the same ground of ten guys from earlier. Every single one of them had switched to Warmachine (or Hordes) and had nothing but good things to saw about it compared to 40k...

Same here, a lot of people take WMH seriously and play it. But, they spend almost no money at the game! I don't think my stores could keep on running, if PP were their headliner. People buy a few models, most are painted in a minimal way to play the game, and then play at the store for countless weekends with their $200 of stuff. When their faction has an exciting new release, they might buy a whole new model that costs $30 or $50.

In contrast, the 40k faithful come and buy carloads of GW stuff, and that doesn't just mean GW sales, it means a lot of hobby supply sales too.

I'm not trying to dish on WMH. It's a cool skirmish (or slightly bigger than skirmish) game, that has easy model transport requirements and plays decently on a smaller table. I'm just saying, it's not really designed to help independents do what's most important for them -- make money. One of my store managers told me that they make more money off of WMH players who camp out at the store selling them candy and pop while they play than they do on anything game related.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Schmapdi wrote:

 Ferrum_Sanguinis wrote:

Schmapdi wrote:

BairdEC wrote:
I find myself wishing that one of the major investment talking heads, one that the investment managers would see, would do a bit on GW's lackluster performance. Something like "Dear Fund Managers, your representatives on GW's board are either clueless, careless, or complicit."

Sadly, I doubt that will ever happen.

It'd be great to see someone go all Olive Garden on GW.

Isn't Olive Garden still hurting bad?

I just mean an outside investor come out with a HUGE report on the many, many failings of GW. (as was done to Olive Garden last year)

http://www.businessinsider.com/starboard-transforming-darden-restaurants-2014-9

The real question is, do they have any power at the board level. Shareholders and analysts are pretty much powerless to control the destiny of a company, unless they control a board seat, and the company needs/wants money.

Change happens quickly when those factors are in play.

Gonna have to remember to check the GW vs PP numbers for last year at the flgs this weekend. Last I knew GW still sold more despite PP game nights having double plus of the turn out.

Myself, I've been GW clean for about 4 months now, and see no predicable future where I return.

I used to live in a 40k rich area. 4 stores in the metro area that sold and played GW stuff. The community thrived and built upon itself. It was easy to ignore pricing and other GW problems simply because the community reinforced itself and made the problem worth dealing with. It was a gilded palace of GW.

Then I had to move out of the palace, into the country side. Suddenly the problems aren't that small anymore. I live in a major city, and the only store that carries and plays GW stuff is the corporate store. All of the independent retailers have long ago washed their hands of it. All of the 'peasants' outside are in full revolt, and playing Warmachine, or X-wing, or other games.

With no one to play with, and utterly no hope of getting anyone interested in the hobby (I have to pay HOW MUCH TO PLAY??!?!), I've quit.

My point: The more of your customer base leaves, the faster the remaining ones will exit. The land is falling into the sea faster and faster, and I simply don't see how this company can make the very difficult decisions that would mend its relationships with the community and its retail partners. I don't see how it can reduce the barriers to entry and re-invigorate its playerbase.

I've sold all my 40k stuff many years ago and sold all my Fantasy stuff except for my Orks and Goblins.. I'll keep them for a few more years since it's my first army and I just love the little buggers.

Regardless... I just don't see me coming back to Fantasy or 40k. The rules are expensive (100€ for the new rulebook and the armyboko.. what the hell?) and just not that great.

I will not buy any GW products for full price, probably not even with a 33% discount.


A thing that would help GW? Be honest and tell us that you've been wrong on some occacions. No need to strip down, but ADMIT SOME MISTAKES and you've done soooo many.

 sourclams wrote:
To show the decline in pre-eminence of GW from a not-hater standpoint, look at the Dakka forum menu. I would not know exactly how many of these forums and sub-forums did not exist 4-5 years ago, but it is a lot.

The gaming space is growing rapidly while GW reports falling sales and either side-lining or off-lining of major product lines (if even 1/4 of the WFB rumors prove true).

Forgive me going back a few pages in the conversation for this, which nicely fits this post thematically, but I was curious as to the point made here. From January 18th, 2010 (just shy of 5 years ago):

https://web.archive.org/web/20100207205604/http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/forums/list.page

The "main" GW forums seem unchanged. Warmachine has changed from a single forum to a 4 forum category. Infinity, and the official forums of Gangflight and On the Lamb have been added as have sub-forums for Malifaux, FFG, Mantic, and WizKids. Most of the descriptions seem to have drifted from being very GW-centric to being generic. AT-43 really seems like the only thing that has disappeared.

So, GW hasn't really lost major ground from what they had before (and in the big scheme, GW is still the dominant player in this market for a bit longer anyway), but other things are popping up and most of the things that were around before are growing. Seems to be a fitting metaphor for the past 5 years, even if a terribly unscientific one.

Fantasy Flights just released Imperial Assault, which is a Star Wars skirmish game. The game is $100 which gives you tons of scenarios, 34 models and everything you need to play the game. It has both a campaign mode and a skirmish mode, allowing for pick-up games as well as multi-session games. They have 7 additional models scheduled for release in the near future with prices from $20 to $10.

What is also interesting about this is that Fantasy Flights already has an agreement with GW to use their IP, though I don't think they could compete with GW in miniatures. This specific game, Descent version 3 for all intensive purposes, could have been just as easily branded for 40K and gotten really good intro game setup. GW could make the models, same models available for full scale 40K, and FF could do the rules for the skirmish level game.

As Star Wars is a bigger property and think Disney is less of pain in the ass, it doesn't really surprise me that FF went this direction, but GW could have gotten on this boat much earlier.

Barfolomew wrote:
Fantasy Flights just released Imperial Assault, which is a Star Wars skirmish game. The game is $100 which gives you tons of scenarios, 34 models and everything you need to play the game. It has both a campaign mode and a skirmish mode, allowing for pick-up games as well as multi-session games. They have 7 additional models scheduled for release in the near future with prices from $20 to $10.

What is also interesting about this is that Fantasy Flights already has an agreement with GW to use their IP, though I don't think they could compete with GW in miniatures. This specific game, Descent version 3 for all intensive purposes, could have been just as easily branded for 40K and gotten really good intro game setup. GW could make the models, same models available for full scale 40K, and FF could do the rules for the skirmish level game.

As Star Wars is a bigger property and think Disney is less of pain in the ass, it doesn't really surprise me that FF went this direction, but GW could have gotten on this boat much earlier.

Ooh, that sounds interesting. Was there a thread on here about it? Might have to have a look.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

GW doesn't believe they have one...they are luxury goods...like Rolex and Ferrari...people will pay whatever they charge...and they are immune to recessions and what not...

You just have to look at the secondary market to see how blatantly invalid that comparison/GW's belief is. Secondhand 40k models, even table top quality, sell for less than NiB wholesale, unassembled models. Even commission models often sell at a discount from what the commissioner originally paid.

Stuff like luxury cars and fine jewelry is often a store of wealth in that it is collectible and there is demand for age-d product. GW models in practice are more like mid-level vehicles that can generally command a decent price on release but rapidly depreciate and are often junked after about 10 years of life.

 Torga_DW wrote:

agnosto wrote:70% chance of the company becoming distressed within the next two years ...
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/GAW.L--Probability_Of_Bankruptcy

Last time i visited that page it was 71%. So that's a good sign, right?

You spoke too soon, it's back at 71.12%... You cursed them!!!

Recent luxury cars/jewelry/watches all sell well below retail prices on the second hand market too, unless they were super limited production runs now not available new

so pretty much the same as GW

where luxury cars etc begin to make money is when enough of the originals have worn out and nostalgia is making people desire them again

again the GW stuff that does make good money is the old hard to get hold of metal stuff

 agnosto wrote:
70% chance of the company becoming distressed within the next two years ...
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/GAW.L--Probability_Of_Bankruptcy

The site and their 'analysis' is complete nonsense, however.

Backfire wrote:

 agnosto wrote:
70% chance of the company becoming distressed within the next two years ...
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/GAW.L--Probability_Of_Bankruptcy

The site and their 'analysis' is complete nonsense, however.

Based on.....?

They do not make any kind of on-hands analysis. They have some sort of simple algorithm to calculate 'probability of bankrupcy'. It does not appear to be very good. I bet nobody on Macroaxis has ever heard of Games Workshop.

Famously, year ago they predicted that Sony will go bankrupt on 79% probability.

I don't think anyone is taking the prediction of bankruptcy particularly seriously, although if the current trend continues, they'll be trading at, or close to, a loss in that time frame.

What you can take from that site though, is that they're applying that same metric to all share prices, therefore all of the companies that aren't showing a 70% chance of bankruptcy can probably be considered a better prospect than GW. I willing to bet that's quite a few.

I fail to see how nobody knowing who Games Workshop are is relevant though? It is, as you say, a simple algorithm, why would familiarity with the brand make any difference?

Backfire wrote:
They do not make any kind of on-hands analysis. They have some sort of simple algorithm to calculate 'probability of bankrupcy'. It does not appear to be very good. I bet nobody on Macroaxis has ever heard of Games Workshop.

Famously, year ago they predicted that Sony will go bankrupt on 79% probability.

Reading skills failure on your part then. From the website in question (emphasis mine):

The score is used to predict probability of a firm or a fund going into bankruptcy or experiencing financial distress within next 24 months.

Sony, did/is in fact experience(ing) financial distress. Math is a wonderful thing, sure mathematical analysis is not 100% accurate; however it's quite a bit more accurate than, "it's not so because I say it isn't ."

I found the other tabs on the site interesting as well; in particular the volatility index and other indicators used by the site are based upon tried and true analysis and are the same tools used by large, institutional investors.

Overall the information on the site is useful and I have used it upon occasion to help make decisions on stock purchases that I've made, one in particular (Himax Tech) made me a pretty penny.

Talys wrote:

Same here, a lot of people take WMH seriously and play it. But, they spend almost no money at the game! I don't think my stores could keep on running, if PP were their headliner. People buy a few models, most are painted in a minimal way to play the game, and then play at the store for countless weekends with their $200 of stuff. When their faction has an exciting new release, they might buy a whole new model that costs $30 or $50.

In contrast, the 40k faithful come and buy carloads of GW stuff, and that doesn't just mean GW sales, it means a lot of hobby supply sales too.

I'm not trying to dish on WMH. It's a cool skirmish (or slightly bigger than skirmish) game, that has easy model transport requirements and plays decently on a smaller table. I'm just saying, it's not really designed to help independents do what's most important for them -- make money. One of my store managers told me that they make more money off of WMH players who camp out at the store selling them candy and pop while they play than they do on anything game related.

I think this is a relic of thinking from GW's former period of market dominance.

Why should PP be aiming for a constant churn of the entirety of the WM/H players' hobby dollars? The players bought the product PP was selling them when they bought the rules and an army to play with. Anything further is gravy, and PP supports getting that gravy by releasing additional things for each army periodically, but they're all optional. But the thing is, each one of those players, depending on the local customary points level, has bought a few hundred dollars worth of PP product, and in exchange got everything they need to play with the option of occasionally buying more stuff to freshen things up.

PP's continuing sale model isn't to constantly change required fundamentals for each army on a periodic basis to force artificial 'required' purchase churn! In fact, that lack thereof is part of their continuing sale model, combined with engaging with their player base, releasing only new things that excite players and continuing structured play support. When you buy a WM/H army, you can be done if you want. The MK2 rules have been out for about 5 years now - we haven't seen MK3-5 in that time as we would have with GW. No one's basic troops have been changed to require new purchases, and now changes have been made to make past releases crap. A Warmachine/Hordes army is a relatively stable investment of your hobby dollars.

Also, PP doesn't have a store chain to support, so they're not looking to support stores except in as much as keeping the FLGS healthy means keeping a vector for sales and organized play healthy. BUT! Next time you go to the store and it's WM/H night, ask what other games they play and what other stuff they buy from the store. I bet they'll surprise you, because the PP sales model isn't predicated on mugging the player for every single hobby dollar in their wallet, plus a few bucks more. It's based around ease of entry, stable investment, and continuing quality of experience. The players aren't constantly buying more WM/H because they don't *have* to, but they occasionally buy more because the *want* to. And because there's no pressure to constantly buy for the same thing you already bought, it's easier to keep veterans around...which provides the good word of mouth and opportunity of play required to draw in the new players who will spend those couple of hundred dollars on their army. (This also makes it easier for vets to justify dropping a few hundred on a new army, if they decide they want one.)

And it's the same with a lot of other wargames other than GW's stuff. There's no constant sales churn, because that's a GW Hobby(tm) thing! Other wargames let you buy an army and move on to another army or even other games! It's allowed! It's okay, because you've already bought the product! The FLGS shouldn't be pouting that the WM/H players don't buy more WM/H stuff...they've sold them that! They should be looking at what else they're buying, or trying to get them to buy other things - wargames or not. (Because they have the free hobby cash to buy *other* things, see?) They should also be utilizing those WM/H players to entice new players to join in and buy their couple hundred bucks' worth of stuff from the FLGS.

That's why we're seeing a rise in so many other games as people move away from GW - because the other games don't try to constantly keep selling you the same thing you've already bought like GW does. Which allows you to play more than one game, because once you have the buy in for one game, you can be done and move on (perhaps with smaller optional purchases later.)

Basically, the outmoded thinking here is the "one store, one wargame" thinking, or even the "one gamer, one wargame" mode of thought. That's the GW model, and GW is losing their grip on the market...because that model is confining and pretty poor treatment of the customer.

GW's mentality seems to be "One Game to Rule Them All" or, to put it another way, "One wargamer, one store, one company". Neither are good.

PP doesn't try to keep you on a treadmill like GW does.

 Psychopomp wrote:

Talys wrote:

Same here, a lot of people take WMH seriously and play it. But, they spend almost no money at the game! I don't think my stores could keep on running, if PP were their headliner. People buy a few models, most are painted in a minimal way to play the game, and then play at the store for countless weekends with their $200 of stuff. When their faction has an exciting new release, they might buy a whole new model that costs $30 or $50.

In contrast, the 40k faithful come and buy carloads of GW stuff, and that doesn't just mean GW sales, it means a lot of hobby supply sales too.

I'm not trying to dish on WMH. It's a cool skirmish (or slightly bigger than skirmish) game, that has easy model transport requirements and plays decently on a smaller table. I'm just saying, it's not really designed to help independents do what's most important for them -- make money. One of my store managers told me that they make more money off of WMH players who camp out at the store selling them candy and pop while they play than they do on anything game related.

I think this is a relic of thinking from GW's former period of market dominance.

Why should PP be aiming for a constant churn of the entirety of the WM/H players' hobby dollars? The players bought the product PP was selling them when they bought the rules and an army to play with. Anything further is gravy, and PP supports getting that gravy by releasing additional things for each army periodically, but they're all optional. But the thing is, each one of those players, depending on the local customary points level, has bought a few hundred dollars worth of PP product, and in exchange got everything they need to play with the option of occasionally buying more stuff to freshen things up.

PP's continuing sale model isn't to constantly change required fundamentals for each army on a periodic basis to force artificial 'required' purchase churn! In fact, that lack thereof is part of their continuing sale model, combined with engaging with their player base, releasing only new things that excite players and continuing structured play support. When you buy a WM/H army, you can be done if you want. The MK2 rules have been out for about 5 years now - we haven't seen MK3-5 in that time as we would have with GW. No one's basic troops have been changed to require new purchases, and now changes have been made to make past releases crap. A Warmachine/Hordes army is a relatively stable investment of your hobby dollars.

Also, PP doesn't have a store chain to support, so they're not looking to support stores except in as much as keeping the FLGS healthy means keeping a vector for sales and organized play healthy. BUT! Next time you go to the store and it's WM/H night, ask what other games they play and what other stuff they buy from the store. I bet they'll surprise you, because the PP sales model isn't predicated on mugging the player for every single hobby dollar in their wallet, plus a few bucks more. It's based around ease of entry, stable investment, and continuing quality of experience. The players aren't constantly buying more WM/H because they don't *have* to, but they occasionally buy more because the *want* to. And because there's no pressure to constantly buy for the same thing you already bought, it's easier to keep veterans around...which provides the good word of mouth and opportunity of play required to draw in the new players who will spend those couple of hundred dollars on their army. (This also makes it easier for vets to justify dropping a few hundred on a new army, if they decide they want one.)

And it's the same with a lot of other wargames other than GW's stuff. There's no constant sales churn, because that's a GW Hobby(tm) thing! Other wargames let you buy an army and move on to another army or even other games! It's allowed! It's okay, because you've already bought the product! The FLGS shouldn't be pouting that the WM/H players don't buy more WM/H stuff...they've sold them that! They should be looking at what else they're buying, or trying to get them to buy other things - wargames or not. (Because they have the free hobby cash to buy *other* things, see?) They should also be utilizing those WM/H players to entice new players to join in and buy their couple hundred bucks' worth of stuff from the FLGS.

That's why we're seeing a rise in so many other games as people move away from GW - because the other games don't try to constantly keep selling you the same thing you've already bought like GW does. Which allows you to play more than one game, because once you have the buy in for one game, you can be done and move on (perhaps with smaller optional purchases later.)

Basically, the outmoded thinking here is the "one store, one wargame" thinking, or even the "one gamer, one wargame" mode of thought. That's the GW model, and GW is losing their grip on the market...because that model is confining and pretty poor treatment of the customer.

All of this doesn't take into account the store selling it which was the point. GW makes up a large portion of store sales that generally carry it. It's not outmoded. Even Mikhaila states it's still 15% of his total business.

It's not worth carrying the product of a lot of games if people aren't constantly purchasing them. They sit on the shelves and gather dust. Especially when people move onto a new game. In other words while it's good for wargaming that people branch out to games that don't have a constant churn like GW it's not as good for the FLGS.

That said unless something happens I don't think GW has 5 years left in them. Which will make me sad since it's the game I grew up with and I have met a lot of great friends through it. But even I've drastically reduced my purchases and have picked up stuff for other games that I might not get to play. And none of those purchases were through an FLGS outside of tournament entry fees.

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:
Ooh, that sounds interesting. Was there a thread on here about it? Might have to have a look.

http://www.fantasyflightgames.com/edge_minisite_sec.asp?eidm=271&esem=1

Couple of threads under the Fantasy Flights topic on Dakka

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/626929.page

Barfolomew wrote:

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:
Ooh, that sounds interesting. Was there a thread on here about it? Might have to have a look.

http://www.fantasyflightgames.com/edge_minisite_sec.asp?eidm=271&esem=1

Couple of threads under the Fantasy Flights topic on Dakka

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/626929.page

They did, but it was eventually locked-

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/610569.page

And all this tells me is that water is wet ; in other news games workshop prints rulebooks for how to play a tabletop game...

This is simply a symptom of games workshops inability to capitalize on any gains it makes towards improvement as a company and in its franchises. They continue to make rookie level mistakes that has left potentially millions of dolla (us) lying around. No support for third party ip generates products, no marketing campaigns to get people playing their games, no drive towards selling their products in public places.

Marines would fly off the fething shelves if they were at walmart or other major retailers of toys and games. They used to do this in fact as I distinctly recall seeing lotr box sets on sale in chapters/indigo and some other places, where was a push for this?

They have made small improvements sure but no commitment always the safe bet products like paint and black library books.

For all their being waist deep in 3rd party videogames they certainly never stop and stare at the blunders of that industry. The publishers and big name developers need to keep pumping out safe bets or they hang you high. It's treasonous to ask them about risk taking Lear they upset their reportcards, their investors, and their boxes goods masters.

Imo I think that is the problem with gw our upper management is run by people with no idea what their products look like/are let alone could tell you how to assemble a model or play a game. They have no love or understanding of the business they are in and instead pull from what they know.

 Hulksmash wrote:

All of this doesn't take into account the store selling it which was the point. GW makes up a large portion of store sales that generally carry it. It's not outmoded. Even Mikhaila states it's still 15% of his total business.

It's not worth carrying the product of a lot of games if people aren't constantly purchasing them. They sit on the shelves and gather dust. Especially when people move onto a new game. In other words while it's good for wargaming that people branch out to games that don't have a constant churn like GW it's not as good for the FLGS.

That said unless something happens I don't think GW has 5 years left in them. Which will make me sad since it's the game I grew up with and I have met a lot of great friends through it. But even I've drastically reduced my purchases and have picked up stuff for other games that I might not get to play. And none of those purchases were through an FLGS outside of tournament entry fees.

Why is the store trying to sell a product to people who have already bought it? That's exactly the outmoded thought I was talking about. Typically, stores sell product to people who don't own it!

I think part of the problem is that the constant churn of GW was easy-mode for a FLGS (not GW's trade relations, of course, those are nightmarish.) The idea was, stock a lot of this one or two ranges, hook the customer once, and he'll always keep buying it. Like miniature wargaming is a consumable product! IT'S NOT! Game miniatures are durable goods! They can last for years and decades! The only reason 40K and Fantasy constantly sold to the same customer over and over is because GW made an artificial treadmill out of their game rules to keep the customer buying the same product over and over with minor variations. "Oh no! They nerfed plasmaguns! But they were so good last edition, all my squads had at least one! But now they suck and meltaguns are way better! Better go buy a few more boxes!"

The FLGS is going to have to adapt to a new paradigm of selling wargames to customers who don't have them yet. The vets will make occasionaly extra purchases for variety or because a new release has caught their eye...but you can't predicate a business on selling the same damn product to the same group of customers over and over and over. (See also: GW's last few reports.) The FLGS is going to have to shake off the easy-mode thought style and adapt to stocking a little bit of a lot of games instead of a lot of a few games. Because you have to sell to people who don't already own, now. The players of non-GW games are not the target market for those games, because they already have them! The target market for a game is people who don't already own it! Additional sells to buy-ins are gravy!

It goes back to miniatures and well written rules sets being durable goods. No furniture store is going to expect a guy who bought a couch last month to come in and buy another couch this month. Once he has his living room set, you count him done because he is gone for years. You can't take constant churn from "hooked addicts" for granted anymore, because GW's games are pretty much the only ones who use that paradigm - and it's chocking them out of the market.

 Hulksmash wrote:

 Psychopomp wrote:

Talys wrote:

Same here, a lot of people take WMH seriously and play it. But, they spend almost no money at the game! I don't think my stores could keep on running, if PP were their headliner. People buy a few models, most are painted in a minimal way to play the game, and then play at the store for countless weekends with their $200 of stuff. When their faction has an exciting new release, they might buy a whole new model that costs $30 or $50.

In contrast, the 40k faithful come and buy carloads of GW stuff, and that doesn't just mean GW sales, it means a lot of hobby supply sales too.

I'm not trying to dish on WMH. It's a cool skirmish (or slightly bigger than skirmish) game, that has easy model transport requirements and plays decently on a smaller table. I'm just saying, it's not really designed to help independents do what's most important for them -- make money. One of my store managers told me that they make more money off of WMH players who camp out at the store selling them candy and pop while they play than they do on anything game related.

I think this is a relic of thinking from GW's former period of market dominance.

Why should PP be aiming for a constant churn of the entirety of the WM/H players' hobby dollars? The players bought the product PP was selling them when they bought the rules and an army to play with. Anything further is gravy, and PP supports getting that gravy by releasing additional things for each army periodically, but they're all optional. But the thing is, each one of those players, depending on the local customary points level, has bought a few hundred dollars worth of PP product, and in exchange got everything they need to play with the option of occasionally buying more stuff to freshen things up.

PP's continuing sale model isn't to constantly change required fundamentals for each army on a periodic basis to force artificial 'required' purchase churn! In fact, that lack thereof is part of their continuing sale model, combined with engaging with their player base, releasing only new things that excite players and continuing structured play support. When you buy a WM/H army, you can be done if you want. The MK2 rules have been out for about 5 years now - we haven't seen MK3-5 in that time as we would have with GW. No one's basic troops have been changed to require new purchases, and now changes have been made to make past releases crap. A Warmachine/Hordes army is a relatively stable investment of your hobby dollars.

Also, PP doesn't have a store chain to support, so they're not looking to support stores except in as much as keeping the FLGS healthy means keeping a vector for sales and organized play healthy. BUT! Next time you go to the store and it's WM/H night, ask what other games they play and what other stuff they buy from the store. I bet they'll surprise you, because the PP sales model isn't predicated on mugging the player for every single hobby dollar in their wallet, plus a few bucks more. It's based around ease of entry, stable investment, and continuing quality of experience. The players aren't constantly buying more WM/H because they don't *have* to, but they occasionally buy more because the *want* to. And because there's no pressure to constantly buy for the same thing you already bought, it's easier to keep veterans around...which provides the good word of mouth and opportunity of play required to draw in the new players who will spend those couple of hundred dollars on their army. (This also makes it easier for vets to justify dropping a few hundred on a new army, if they decide they want one.)

And it's the same with a lot of other wargames other than GW's stuff. There's no constant sales churn, because that's a GW Hobby(tm) thing! Other wargames let you buy an army and move on to another army or even other games! It's allowed! It's okay, because you've already bought the product! The FLGS shouldn't be pouting that the WM/H players don't buy more WM/H stuff...they've sold them that! They should be looking at what else they're buying, or trying to get them to buy other things - wargames or not. (Because they have the free hobby cash to buy *other* things, see?) They should also be utilizing those WM/H players to entice new players to join in and buy their couple hundred bucks' worth of stuff from the FLGS.

That's why we're seeing a rise in so many other games as people move away from GW - because the other games don't try to constantly keep selling you the same thing you've already bought like GW does. Which allows you to play more than one game, because once you have the buy in for one game, you can be done and move on (perhaps with smaller optional purchases later.)

Basically, the outmoded thinking here is the "one store, one wargame" thinking, or even the "one gamer, one wargame" mode of thought. That's the GW model, and GW is losing their grip on the market...because that model is confining and pretty poor treatment of the customer.

All of this doesn't take into account the store selling it which was the point. GW makes up a large portion of store sales that generally carry it. It's not outmoded. Even Mikhaila states it's still 15% of his total business.

It's not worth carrying the product of a lot of games if people aren't constantly purchasing them. They sit on the shelves and gather dust. Especially when people move onto a new game. In other words while it's good for wargaming that people branch out to games that don't have a constant churn like GW it's not as good for the FLGS.

That said unless something happens I don't think GW has 5 years left in them. Which will make me sad since it's the game I grew up with and I have met a lot of great friends through it. But even I've drastically reduced my purchases and have picked up stuff for other games that I might not get to play. And none of those purchases were through an FLGS outside of tournament entry fees.

Yes, this is exactly my point.

@Psychopomp -- I'm not saying that what PP does is bad for customers (gamers). I'm saying that it's bad for local, independent stores. In the PP model, there are two problems for local stores:

1) the customers come and sit around taking up space without buying more product

2) the store stocks stuff that eventually is outdated and doesn't sell

That might not directly be your problem as a gamer, but it's indirectly your problem, if those stores shut down and you have nowhere to meet/play. In contrast, the GW model pushes product to players, generating constant revenue for the store -- until the customer gets fed up and quits the game. But, at least, the customers that are interested in GW "must" keep spending money. Just like with MtG, you "must" keep buying stuff if you play.

It's a more profitable model for the independent store, is all I'm saying. Which is why in every store that carries both PP and Warhammer, I see Warhammer taking the premium display space.