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 thedarkavenger wrote:

PirateRobotNinjaofDeath wrote:

 thedarkavenger wrote:

A S7 Banishment has about the same chance of killing Nagash than the Necrosphinx. Yet you praise one and dismiss the other.

Yeah...because failing to cast banishment doesn't mean throwing 200 some odd points down the drain. It's also more likely to chip at least a couple wounds, which Nagash will have to spend spell dice to heal, while the necrosphinx probably does only a single wound then gets cut to ribbons. And you can just try and cast Banishment again next phase.

A S7 banishment also sets you back far more points. The level 4 should cost you the about the same as a necrosphinx if you build it correctly. And the 3 level 1s. The necrosphinx has really come into it's own.

As it stands, you have a 50% chance to hit nagash, 16.7% to HKB him and then a 50% chance for him to ward it. That's a 29% chance of killing him.

A S7 banishment, on average, needs 4 dice to go off. Nagash has a 52.5%(roughly) chance of stopping you. Then you have a 31.82% chance of rolling enough wounds to kill him. Then he has a 30% of failing a ward post rerolls. That translates to a 19.4% chance of killing Nagash.


I rest my case.

Yeah...no. Check your math and try again. Necrosphinx has a 4% chance of killing Nagash.

 thedarkavenger wrote:

As it stands, you have a 50% chance to hit nagash, 16.7% to HKB him and then a 50% chance for him to ward it. That's a 29% chance of killing him.
I rest my case.

HKB from the sphinx is on a single attack.
1/2 hit, 1/6 HKB, 1/2 fail ward saves. Should the sphinx survive Nagash's attacks, you're looking at a 1:24 chance.
On the other hand, Nagash may kill it before it swings. Nagash hits on 3+, wounds on 4+ and does D3 wounds per hit. Nagash should do about 4 wounds on average (4 out of 6 hit, 2 wound and each does D3 wounds).

Like most solutions, odds are stacked in Nagashes favor.

PirateRobotNinjaofDeath wrote:

 thedarkavenger wrote:

PirateRobotNinjaofDeath wrote:

 thedarkavenger wrote:

A S7 Banishment has about the same chance of killing Nagash than the Necrosphinx. Yet you praise one and dismiss the other.

Yeah...because failing to cast banishment doesn't mean throwing 200 some odd points down the drain. It's also more likely to chip at least a couple wounds, which Nagash will have to spend spell dice to heal, while the necrosphinx probably does only a single wound then gets cut to ribbons. And you can just try and cast Banishment again next phase.

A S7 banishment also sets you back far more points. The level 4 should cost you the about the same as a necrosphinx if you build it correctly. And the 3 level 1s. The necrosphinx has really come into it's own.

As it stands, you have a 50% chance to hit nagash, 16.7% to HKB him and then a 50% chance for him to ward it. That's a 29% chance of killing him.

A S7 banishment, on average, needs 4 dice to go off. Nagash has a 52.5%(roughly) chance of stopping you. Then you have a 31.82% chance of rolling enough wounds to kill him. Then he has a 30% of failing a ward post rerolls. That translates to a 19.4% chance of killing Nagash.


I rest my case.

Yeah...no. Check your math and try again. Necrosphinx has a 4% chance of killing Nagash.

That's not how adding percentages work. As an example, 50%+40% is not actually 90%. That single attack has a 29% chance of killing him with no outside interference. My maths is correct. If you alter the method ever so slightly by calculating the ward in the opposite manner to the way I just did, it goes down to a 16.7% chance of killing Nagash.

No, your math is not correct. The chance to get a 6 to wound for a hkb alone is 16.7%. That's without calculating having to hit and get past the ward. Factoring those in is only going to make your odds worse, not better. 4% is correct.

 thedarkavenger wrote:

As it stands, you have a 50% chance to hit nagash, 16.7% to HKB him and then a 50% chance for him to ward it. That's a 29% chance of killing him.

A S7 banishment, on average, needs 4 dice to go off. Nagash has a 52.5%(roughly) chance of stopping you. Then you have a 31.82% chance of rolling enough wounds to kill him. Then he has a 30% of failing a ward post rerolls. That translates to a 19.4% chance of killing Nagash.

This explains so much.

 Maelstrom808 wrote:
No, your math is not correct. The chance to get a 6 to wound for a hkb alone is 16.7%. That's without calculating having to hit and get past the ward. Factoring those in is only going to make your odds worse, not better. 4% is correct.

I have factored in the ward. The odds of the entire process being successful is 29%.

 thedarkavenger wrote:

 Maelstrom808 wrote:
No, your math is not correct. The chance to get a 6 to wound for a hkb alone is 16.7%. That's without calculating having to hit and get past the ward. Factoring those in is only going to make your odds worse, not better. 4% is correct.

I have factored in the ward. The odds of the entire process being successful is 29%.

No wonder youre always so wrong about Warhammer.

1/2 of the Sphinx's HKB attacks will be stopped by Nagash's ward saves. 1/6 successful hits will be a HKB, meaning that 1/12 of those will be HKBs that get past his ward and 1/12 will be HKBs that do not. Further hitting on 4+ means that half of the time the HKB attack will not even hit. So 1/24 is the chance that the attack gets past all the relevant obstacles and successfully HKBs him.

1/24 = 0.041667, or about 4%.

That is how probabilities work.

Edit: just realized that your math is wrong because you're adding the probabilities together. That's wrong. Were not calculating the chance of any one of these things happening but ALL of them. Thus you multiply the probabilities rather than add them.

 thedarkavenger wrote:


I have factored in the ward. The odds of the entire process being successful is 29%.

Not that this is likely to be fruitful. However.

29% chance is almost 1/3. however, HKB only triggers 1/6 die rolls. So somehow you've attacked Nagash, heroic killing blowed him, and bypassed his ward save. And you are saying that that entire process is TWICE as likely to happen as just getting the 1/6 HKB to trigger.

~4% is correct.

 thedarkavenger wrote:

 Maelstrom808 wrote:
No, your math is not correct. The chance to get a 6 to wound for a hkb alone is 16.7%. That's without calculating having to hit and get past the ward. Factoring those in is only going to make your odds worse, not better. 4% is correct.

I have factored in the ward. The odds of the entire process being successful is 29%.

I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but I'm guessing you were drunk when you had this argument? Think about it; if just one of the Necrosphinx's attacks have the Heroic Killing Blow special rule - meaning a 16.7% chance just on the to-wound roll - then how do you somehow manage to get a HIGHER percentage of the actual attack successfully Heroic Killing Blow-ing an enemy once you factor in the to-hit roll AND any applicable saving throw roll? In the case of Nagash, you have a 50% chance of hitting with that 1 attack, then a 16.7% chance of rolling a 6 (Heroic Killing Blow), then a further 50% chance of Nagash failing his 4+ ward save.

In any case, I've used both and can say without question that the Khemrian Warsphinx is by far the better of the two. It is the better character assassin with four Killing Blow attacks from the crew in addition to the actual Sphinx's attacks/the optional Thundercrush, it absolutely munches units when you chuck in the Thundercrush and Breath Weapon, and it is a better tarpit as it generates more wounds for combat resolution against almost anything. If you have the luck of the gods, a Necrosphinx is awesome and the fact that it is Flying helps out a lot, but ultimately the fact that it is a Rare choice in Undead Legions is perhaps its' biggest downside. Terrorgheists, a Casket of Souls, a Hierotitan, Screaming Skull Catapults and Mortis Engines are all far superior to any other Undead Rare choice.

Caederes wrote:
[...]
In any case, I've used both and can say without question that the Khemrian Warsphinx is by far the better of the two. It is the better character assassin with four Killing Blow attacks from the crew in addition to the actual Sphinx's attacks/the optional Thundercrush, it absolutely munches units when you chuck in the Thundercrush and Breath Weapon, and it is a better tarpit as it generates more wounds for combat resolution against almost anything. If you have the luck of the gods, a Necrosphinx is awesome and the fact that it is Flying helps out a lot, but ultimately the fact that it is a Rare choice in Undead Legions is perhaps its' biggest downside. Terrorgheists, a Casket of Souls, a Hierotitan, Screaming Skull Catapults and Mortis Engines are all far superior to any other Undead Rare choice.

Depends what you're going for. The necrosphinx I would say is a better mobile tarpit to support a BK bus or ZD/hellsteed VL. More mobility to pin stuff you don't want to deal with for a while, and his HKB attack has a psychological effect on warhammer players who don't understand probabilities (which, as this thread shows, is more than you might think).

The proper math is as follows.

Probability of hitting with the HKB attack: .5

Probability of HKB triggering: 1/6(we don't care if it wounds but doesn't trigger)

Probability of Nagash saving: .5

Therefore, the math is .5*(1/6)*.5 = 0.042

Or 4.2% chance of HKBing Nagash


You are far better off just dropping Skull Catapults on his head.

 Grey Templar wrote:
The proper math is as follows.

Probability of hitting with the HKB attack: .5

Probability of HKB triggering: 1/6(we don't care if it wounds but doesn't trigger)

Probability of Nagash saving: .5

Therefore, the math is .5*(1/6)*.5 = 0.042

Or 4.2% chance of HKBing Nagash


You are far better off just dropping Skull Catapults on his head.

Interestingly enough, even if ALL of the necrosphinx's attacks were HKB it still wouldn't be anywhere close to 29% probability.

5 attacks -> 2.5 hits on 4+ -> 36.6% chance that at least one of those hits rolls a HKB -> 18.3% chance that one makes it past his ward save.

This of course also being the chance of KBing an infantry or cavalry character.

Yeah, he's a little scarier if you are talking regular characters. But then a lot of characters are perfectly capable of putting a few wounds on him first. And units will hit him first too.

For interest's sake:

Chance to KB with a necrosphinx: 36.6% (or 18.3% against 4++)

Chance to KB with rerolls to hit (Vanhels): 49.5% (or 24.7% against 4++)

Chance to KB with +1A (Bironas/Smiting): 42% (or 21.1% against 4++)

Chance to KB on a 5+ (Cursed Blades): 63.7% (or 31.8% against 4++)

Chance to KB with +1A, rerolls, on a 5+: 83.9% (or 41.9% against 4++)


And:

Chance to HKB Nagash: 4.4%

Chance to HKB Nagash with rerolls to hit: 6.4%

Chance to HKB Nagash on a 5+: 9.2%

Chance to HKB Nagahs with rerolls on a 5+: 13%

not wishing to start this all up again, but surely the necro is hitting nagash on 5's, not 4's, making it even less likely.

Isn't nagash WS 7 vs a necros 3?

Necrosphinx is WS4, as is the Warsphinx. (The Warsphinx crew is WS3 though. Cruddace felt the need to make every single skeleton in the book have a different stat line.)

 Hive Fleet Cerberus wrote:

 trollmeat wrote:
Interchangeable with the use of Magnets?

I considered that, but since I didn't have any magnets or GS available to me, and wont for some time, I ended up using a slightly different method of making it count as either sphinx:

Is it wrong of me to wish we had a Sphinx with 4 riders and a Decapitating Strike, and Flaming Breath, and Thundercrush?

Also, same thing I did with my Necroknights/Stalkers- I love the hood, but hate the riders, so I just put the hood on the stalkers!

Anvildude wrote:

 Hive Fleet Cerberus wrote:

 trollmeat wrote:
Interchangeable with the use of Magnets?

I considered that, but since I didn't have any magnets or GS available to me, and wont for some time, I ended up using a slightly different method of making it count as either sphinx:

Is it wrong of me to wish we had a Sphinx with 4 riders and a Decapitating Strike, and Flaming Breath, and Thundercrush?

Also, same thing I did with my Necroknights/Stalkers- I love the hood, but hate the riders, so I just put the hood on the stalkers!

I wish that the decapitating strike was on all its attacks. I'd actually run it if it was like that, even at 275 points.

 thedarkavenger wrote:

As it stands, you have a 50% chance to hit nagash, 16.7% to HKB him and then a 50% chance for him to ward it. That's a 29% chance of killing him.

A S7 banishment, on average, needs 4 dice to go off. Nagash has a 52.5%(roughly) chance of stopping you. Then you have a 31.82% chance of rolling enough wounds to kill him. Then he has a 30% of failing a ward post rerolls. That translates to a 19.4% chance of killing Nagash.

You really need to grab a math text book. You don't add percentages together, when they are all required for a single successful result (death of nagash), you multiple. It's ~ 4% to HKB Nagash.
S7 Banishment is good for 2 to 3 wounds, with the largest variation being in the number of hits. Odds of outright killing nagash is very low.

Gentlemen,
Just try the following:
WS3 vs WS3, 50% chance of a hit.
S3 vs T3, 50% chance of a wound.
Heavy armour and a shield, 50% chance of a kill

Or to put it the other way:

8 men swing
4 men hit
2 men wound
1 man kills

So 1 in 8 or 12.5 %, (not 150%!!)