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2015/12/08 20:15:35
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2015/12/08 20:24:08
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
whembly wrote: Hermain Cain was leading the poll at this point in '12.
Polls are useful now (ie, anyone polling <5% ought to think about dropping out)... but, I think it's a mistake to put too much weight on these polls at the moment.
whembly wrote: Hermain Cain was leading the poll at this point in '12.
Polls are useful now (ie, anyone polling <5% ought to think about dropping out)... but, I think it's a mistake to put too much weight on these polls at the moment.
whembly wrote: Hermain Cain was leading the poll at this point in '12.
Polls are useful now (ie, anyone polling <5% ought to think about dropping out)... but, I think it's a mistake to put too much weight on these polls at the moment.
whembly wrote: Hermain Cain was leading the poll at this point in '12.
Polls are useful now (ie, anyone polling <5% ought to think about dropping out)... but, I think it's a mistake to put too much weight on these polls at the moment.
I'll tell you what man... Teh Trumpo™ is doing a damned good job of uniting just about everyone against him.
Except for the largest share of the GOP . They seem to be united for him at the moment
??? when has he ever surpassed 50+ % of the current polls??
He said largest share, not majority. According to most polls throughout the period, he has attracted the largest share.
My bad.
I still say that most of "Trumps voters" isn't exactly supporting Trump because he's "Trump". It's more of a way to make the establishment "sweat a little".
Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
2015/12/08 20:52:29
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
whembly wrote: Hermain Cain was leading the poll at this point in '12.
Polls are useful now (ie, anyone polling <5% ought to think about dropping out)... but, I think it's a mistake to put too much weight on these polls at the moment.
I'll tell you what man... Teh Trumpo™ is doing a damned good job of uniting just about everyone against him.
Except for the largest share of the GOP . They seem to be united for him at the moment
??? when has he ever surpassed 50+ % of the current polls??
He said largest share, not majority. According to most polls throughout the period, he has attracted the largest share.
My bad.
I still say that most of "Trumps voters" isn't exactly supporting Trump because he's "Trump". It's more of a way to make the establishment "sweat a little".
I think you are giving him and the people who poll for him too much credit. I would guess a large amount of his support haven't given it much thought (thinking cannot be their specialty), nor will they be likely to vote come election time. He will get beaten in Iowa likely by Cruz, and then his support will dry up since he will no longer look like a "winner". I think you are right to peg it an election between Cruz and Rubio, but the longer he stays in, the more your girlfriend looks better by comparison.
Help me, Rhonda. HA!
2015/12/08 20:55:26
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Gordon Shumway wrote: I think you are giving him and the people who poll for him too much credit. I would guess a large amount of his support haven't given it much thought (thinking cannot be their specialty), nor will they be likely to vote come election time. He will get beaten in Iowa likely by Cruz, and then his support will dry up since he will no longer look like a "winner". I think you are right to peg it an election between Cruz and Rubio, but the longer he stays in, the more your girlfriend looks better by comparison.
The problem with that line of thought is that pretty much every reputable polling company doesn't just pick random folks off the street, but samples likely voters: Usually registered Republicans (in this case) who have voted in past primaries.
2015/12/08 20:58:30
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Frazzled wrote: Or a plant by the HRC campaign, and he's digging the publicity.
Listen, Alex Jones. I'm willing to say it's possible for a campaign to put up a fake candidate. There are rumors it's happened during primaries a few years ago. That being said, anyone that seriously believes that Donald Trump is a Democratic plant is frankly, willingly closing their eyes to just how deeply screwed up their party has become. He's made noises about running for President since before Bill Clinton was president. He actually ran for president once already, in 2000. In all of these many, many political offices he has run for, or has threatened to run for, he has put on a show of it until either he would have had to disclose his financials (it would hurt the brand to reveal he has often been teetering on the edge of bankruptcy), until a serious candidate actually showed up, or until it stopped being fun. This is a guy who likes running for office for the lulz, and he usually quits once it becomes a hassle. This is the first election where everything lined up for him: his financials are in pretty good shape, his "opposition" is an unbelievably weak B-squad of has-beens and never-was-es, there's apparently a huge mass of useful idiots willing to endorse anyone who's "not politically correct", and he has nothing else really going on, so why not?
To go at it at another angle, it's like believing the government is capable of covering up the truth behind 9/11 while also being wholly incapable of running the TSA; it's just not possible. The Hillary Clinton campaign isn't some Machiavellian masterpiece of political excellence, she's a terrible campaigner whose only real success this time - despite many, many self-inflicted wounds - is that she has no significant competition at all. That's it, that's all.
If even a halfway competent junior senator had ran, she'd be done by now, just like last time when she snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Instead she lucked out and got this generation's Dennis Kucinich, a bunch of guys with name recognition somewhere south of yours, and even THEN, the Democratic National Committee has been spending all their time trying to make sure no one roughs her up by putting the Democratic debates on the equivalent of late-night cable access during the Super Bowl.
That Donald Trump... happened, for lack of a better word, is simply dumb luck for the Clinton campaign, emphasis on the dumb. The problem with the idea he might be a plant is it abdicates one's responsibility to consider what the party you largely support now consists of.
lord_blackfang wrote: Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.
Flinty wrote: The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
2015/12/08 21:01:04
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Frazzled wrote: Or a plant by the HRC campaign, and he's digging the publicity.
Listen, Alex Jones. I'm willing to say it's possible for a campaign to put up a fake candidate. There are rumors it's happened during primaries a few years ago. That being said, anyone that seriously believes that Donald Trump is a Democratic plant is frankly, willingly closing their eyes to just how deeply screwed up their party has become. He's made noises about running for President since before Bill Clinton was president. He actually ran for president once already, in 2000. In all of these many, many political offices he has run for, or has threatened to run for, he has put on a show of it until either he would have had to disclose his financials (it would hurt the brand to reveal he has often been teetering on the edge of bankruptcy), until a serious candidate actually showed up, or until it stopped being fun. This is a guy who likes running for office for the lulz, and he usually quits once it becomes a hassle. This is the first election where everything lined up for him: his financials are in pretty good shape, his "opposition" is an unbelievably weak B-squad of has-beens and never-was-es, there's apparently a huge mass of useful idiots willing to endorse anyone who's "not politically correct", and he has nothing else really going on, so why not?
To go at it at another angle, it's like believing the government is capable of covering up the truth behind 9/11 while also being wholly incapable of running the TSA; it's just not possible. The Hillary Clinton campaign isn't some Machiavellian masterpiece of political excellence, she's a terrible campaigner whose only real success this time - despite many, many self-inflicted wounds - is that she has no significant competition at all. That's it, that's all.
If even a halfway competent junior senator had ran, she'd be done by now, just like last time when she snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Instead she lucked out and got this generation's Dennis Kucinich, a bunch of guys with name recognition somewhere south of yours, and even THEN, the Democratic National Committee has been spending all their time trying to make sure no one roughs her up by putting the Democratic debates on the equivalent of late-night cable access during the Super Bowl.
That Donald Trump... happened, for lack of a better word, is simply dumb luck for the Clinton campaign, emphasis on the dumb. The problem with the idea he might be a plant is it abdicates one's responsibility to consider what the party you largely support now consists of.
Were this facebook, I would like your post.
Full Frontal Nerdity
2015/12/08 21:07:03
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Frazzled wrote: Or a plant by the HRC campaign, and he's digging the publicity.
Listen, Alex Jones. I'm willing to say it's possible for a campaign to put up a fake candidate. There are rumors it's happened during primaries a few years ago. That being said, anyone that seriously believes that Donald Trump is a Democratic plant is frankly, willingly closing their eyes to just how deeply screwed up their party has become. He's made noises about running for President since before Bill Clinton was president. He actually ran for president once already, in 2000. In all of these many, many political offices he has run for, or has threatened to run for, he has put on a show of it until either he would have had to disclose his financials (it would hurt the brand to reveal he has often been teetering on the edge of bankruptcy), until a serious candidate actually showed up, or until it stopped being fun. This is a guy who likes running for office for the lulz, and he usually quits once it becomes a hassle. This is the first election where everything lined up for him: his financials are in pretty good shape, his "opposition" is an unbelievably weak B-squad of has-beens and never-was-es, there's apparently a huge mass of useful idiots willing to endorse anyone who's "not politically correct", and he has nothing else really going on, so why not?
To go at it at another angle, it's like believing the government is capable of covering up the truth behind 9/11 while also being wholly incapable of running the TSA; it's just not possible. The Hillary Clinton campaign isn't some Machiavellian masterpiece of political excellence, she's a terrible campaigner whose only real success this time - despite many, many self-inflicted wounds - is that she has no significant competition at all. That's it, that's all.
If even a halfway competent junior senator had ran, she'd be done by now, just like last time when she snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Instead she lucked out and got this generation's Dennis Kucinich, a bunch of guys with name recognition somewhere south of yours, and even THEN, the Democratic National Committee has been spending all their time trying to make sure no one roughs her up by putting the Democratic debates on the equivalent of late-night cable access during the Super Bowl.
That Donald Trump... happened, for lack of a better word, is simply dumb luck for the Clinton campaign, emphasis on the dumb. The problem with the idea he might be a plant is it abdicates one's responsibility to consider what the party you largely support now consists of.
I'm with you on everything here except about how horrible Clinton is as a campaigner. She ran damn close to Obama (who would likely figure out how to win a third time if he could) in 2008, and no other non incumbent candidate has ever had the lead she holds in the primary she holds now at this time in the election cycle. I'm thinking your opinion of her as a campaigner is colored by your opinion of her. She has no opposition at the moment. Look back to 2008. She was pretty effective once she started realizing she actually needed to (don't forget Edwards was still untainted). When she unleashes the dogs of war against whoever the GOP eventually settles on, it won't be pretty.
Help me, Rhonda. HA!
2015/12/08 21:31:36
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
"Listen, Alex Jones" -wo and here I thought we were friends. You best back off son, or I will have to seek satisfaction on the field of battle. Red whippy sticks and GW dice at Dawn...SIR!
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2015/12/08 21:33:05
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2015/12/08 21:39:33
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Hey... is it any more reasonable than saying that Obama was funded in part by Gun manufacturers? Seeing how these companies stocks are surging during his tenure?
Nah... I'm step'n away from the bong...
Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
2015/12/08 21:43:39
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
"Places in London are so radicalised that police are afraid to go there."
- Donald Trump
""We would not normally dignify such comments with a response, however on this occasion we think it's important to state to Londoners that Mr Trump could not be more wrong.
"Any candidate for the presidential election in the United States of America is welcome to receive a briefing from the Met Police on the reality of policing London.""
- The Metropolitan (London) Police
"The only reason that I wouldn't go to some parts of New York is the real risk of meeting Donald Trump."
- Boris Johnston, the mayor of London.
I have no real political opinion about things but when this guy...
Is effectively calling someone out. One has to wonder...
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/12/08 21:44:03
2015/12/08 21:43:57
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
whembly wrote: Hey... is it any more reasonable than saying that Obama was funded in part by Gun manufacturers? Seeing how these companies stocks are surging during his tenure?
Nah... I'm step'n away from the bong...
Wait, he wasn't?
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2015/12/08 21:58:59
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Da Boss wrote: I keep thinking "Holy crap, did I just hear him say what I think he said?!?" and then I think "Man, that is about as crazy as it can possibly get."
Then like 4 days later he tops it. And he's been doing that consistently, since before the summer.
It is friggin' unbelievable. Mainstream Republicans must be furious?
Are there any old guard left that haven't been run off by the Tea Party?
Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do
2015/12/08 22:07:05
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2015/12/08 22:19:19
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Da Boss wrote: I keep thinking "Holy crap, did I just hear him say what I think he said?!?" and then I think "Man, that is about as crazy as it can possibly get."
Then like 4 days later he tops it. And he's been doing that consistently, since before the summer.
It is friggin' unbelievable. Mainstream Republicans must be furious?
And the media are lapping it up.
They cannot stop talking about Trump, which just feeds into the most important thing for any candidate - exposure.
I think he has found a significant groundswell amongst people who are sick of the same old machine politicians and he is doing anything he can to separate himself from them.
If I was in the US and confronted with the option of any other bland republican I would go for Trump. If in the presidential run off, Hillary Clinton vs Trump, It would be Trump because more of the same that Obama has provided would really put the US in the toilet.
But I am not a citizen, so... meh.
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2015/12/08 22:40:01
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
BrotherGecko wrote: If this is just his strategy as a negotiator he might be the worst out there.
This. If Trump were a police negotiator his opening line to a hostage taker would probably be along the lines of "Okay, we're going to assault in 5 minutes unless you kill yourself now".
Not too far from the truth, I guess. We're talking about a guy who managed to lose oodles of investor money (in a casino project?), then just told them thay should be happy THEY DIDN*T LOSE MORE! A guy who borrowed money from Deutsche Bank, failed to pay - and when the bank asked nicely he slapped them a lawsuit for damaging his reputation over a few measly millions. Trump doesn't negotiate, he screams insanity at you until you say "yeah, whatever" and let him carry on with his business.
2015/12/08 23:27:23
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
So based on his overall poling numbers ~20% of Republican primary voters would ditch the GOP and follow Trump?
I think that's an acceptable loss and it would probably be a good thing for the GOP to get rid of them if it allows them to become a more normal party in the future.
2015/12/08 23:48:53
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
d-usa wrote: So based on his overall poling numbers ~20% of Republican primary voters would ditch the GOP and follow Trump?
I think that's an acceptable loss and it would probably be a good thing for the GOP to get rid of them if it allows them to become a more normal party in the future.
Pretty much. The Constitution is for all, and no one should be deprived of their rights arbitrarily. Trump is looking more and more like a caricature every day.
2015/12/09 00:27:22
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
So based on his overall poling numbers ~20% of Republican primary voters would ditch the GOP and follow Trump?
I think that's an acceptable loss and it would probably be a good thing for the GOP to get rid of them if it allows them to become a more normal party in the future.
A loss of 20% would be devistating for a party right now, particularly the GOP who will be having struggles with the demographics in the next few decades. I agree, it's probably good in the very long term to realign the parties, the Dems still need the GOP. Sorta like Sony needs Microsoft.
Help me, Rhonda. HA!
2015/12/09 01:41:17
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
If the GOP cut those 20% and pulled just a smidgen to the center they would probably gain enough supporters to not have to gerrymander to win electorate votes
2015/12/09 01:48:18
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Except 20% of primary voters is actually a lot smaller group than 20% of Republicans.
That's why the GOP has been in trouble the last few cycles: the primary process means that they are having to turn crazy to gain the votes of a small group of people only to turn around and try to gain the votes of the actual Republicand and moderates after the primary is over.
That's the whole "we gotta rally the base" problem. The base would vote for anyone that isn't the Democrat, but if you don't pander to the few whole alienating the many you never get the nomination.
Getting rid of the few may be the best thing they could hope for.
2015/12/09 02:24:27
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
d-usa wrote: Except 20% of primary voters is actually a lot smaller group than 20% of Republicans.
That's why the GOP has been in trouble the last few cycles: the primary process means that they are having to turn crazy to gain the votes of a small group of people only to turn around and try to gain the votes of the actual Republicand and moderates after the primary is over.
That's the whole "we gotta rally the base" problem. The base would vote for anyone that isn't the Democrat, but if you don't pander to the few whole alienating the many you never get the nomination.
Getting rid of the few may be the best thing they could hope for.
And the party just rearranged the calendar to try to mitigate a lot of what you are describing. At some point the party leaders have to say, we can't handle our crazy folks that we created any longer. Then what though? New parties are hard to establish (possibly impossible with the way they have gerrymandered states) . It will likely take a trump card to kill a party.
Help me, Rhonda. HA!
2015/12/09 02:29:03
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
d-usa wrote: Except 20% of primary voters is actually a lot smaller group than 20% of Republicans.
That's why the GOP has been in trouble the last few cycles: the primary process means that they are having to turn crazy to gain the votes of a small group of people only to turn around and try to gain the votes of the actual Republicand and moderates after the primary is over.
That's the whole "we gotta rally the base" problem. The base would vote for anyone that isn't the Democrat, but if you don't pander to the few whole alienating the many you never get the nomination.
Getting rid of the few may be the best thing they could hope for.
No. The primary process has a moderating influence on GOP candidates and weeds out fringe candidates. The majority of delegates at the Republican convention will be from "blue" states that Obama carried. It is highly unlikely that they'll vote for Trump or that primary voters in their states will vote for Trump.
. They seem to be united for him at the moment
