Has the Third Sphere Expansion failed?

Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:

No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
Times and dates in your local timezone.
Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.

If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

**Ironclad Warlord**

Tau expansion fails for four reasons

1. The Tau can't use warp travel like the Imperium making it much harder to have a large Empire.
2. The Tau can't control humans with pheromones like they can other species.
3. They also lack knowledge about Chaos causing human worlds to suffer from demonic incursions.
4. Unable to deal with their new subjects they resort to indirect genocide against the human population. Of course this strengthens human resolve to fight the Tau and makes them unable recruit from conquered world like they have traditionally do as well as proving that their core ideology "the greater good" is just a pyramid scheme.

**Co'tor Shas**

Durandal wrote:
Tau "Hero" class cruisers, the pinnacle of their naval technology built after the Damocles Gulf Crusade, is roughly comparable to the Lunar class Cruiser. -BFG Armada Pg 130.

Tau orbital supremacy is not a given. What little experience I had with BFG was that Tau were ideal for imperial fleets. The imperials moved faster, had access to longer range weapons, and both would attempt to close frontally. If the Tau did not cripple the imperium's forces as they closed the resulting boarding actions and close in fighting favored the imperial craft due to the penalties to Tau close in combat.

The Tau overall may be able to muster more troops, but they cannot garrison them all on every planet. The imperium, with it's faster warp travel could simply bypass major Tau strength and hit the weaker Tau systems. Unlike the ground, the Tau would not be able to play patient hunter or give ground, they would be forced to defend the large orbitals and support systems in orbit. That puts them at a disadvantage vs. the Imperium which prefers large decisive battles.

While the Tau Etherials would certainly tell their people this is all part of a larger plan, you can't argue that is 100% certain. The Etherials already lie and manipulate the Tau castes, and conceal knowledge from them. They could easily spread propaganda in order to maintain support of their allies and keep up moral, such as their defeats being intentional as part of a larger plan.

Even with the third wave expansion the Tau controlled space is smaller then Maccragge. If one SM chapter and a PDF can hold that with an active Ork empire next door, the Tau could certainly be defeated by two chapters and several hundred regiments.

Again, old fluff. Those ships are no longer in service, they now have actual war-ships, instead of transports with weapons bolted on.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ironclad Warlord wrote:
Tau expansion fails for four reasons

1. The Tau can't use warp travel like the Imperium making it much harder to have a large Empire.
2. The Tau can't control humans with pheromones like they can other species.
3. They also lack knowledge about Chaos causing human worlds to suffer from demonic incursions.
4. Unable to deal with their new subjects they resort to indirect genocide against the human population. Of course this strengthens human resolve to fight the Tau and makes them unable recruit from conquered world like they have traditionally do as well as proving that their core ideology "the greater good" is just a pyramid scheme.

I question #'s 2 and 4.
Their is no proof of pheromones, and they have plenty of member species working for them just fine.
And, the tau have never committed a genocide of humans in the fluff. Not only would it be a waste of recorces, it would be against the tenets of the greater good. You want them to join. You might force them to join, but you don't just destroy them.

And it should be mentioned that tau-owned human worlds tend to be run by humans for the most part. Much in the way a US state acts.

**Ironclad Warlord**

Humans that fought against the Tau for the Imperium are placed in single gender re-education camps and are treated like second-class citizens of the Tau Empire. Apparently, the Tau are also enacting some sort of sterilization policy to prevent human reproduction -- as the human population starts to dwindle very rapidly as the Kronus colony's Tau population begins to thrive.

http://warhammer40k.wikia.com/wiki/Shas'O_Kais

**LordBlades**

Durandal wrote:
Tau "Hero" class cruisers, the pinnacle of their naval technology built after the Damocles Gulf Crusade, is roughly comparable to the Lunar class Cruiser. -BFG Armada Pg 130.

Tau orbital supremacy is not a given. What little experience I had with BFG was that Tau were ideal for imperial fleets. The imperials moved faster, had access to longer range weapons, and both would attempt to close frontally. If the Tau did not cripple the imperium's forces as they closed the resulting boarding actions and close in fighting favored the imperial craft due to the penalties to Tau close in combat.

Tau actually have an even more modern cruiset than the Hero, the Protector (http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/wiki/Lar%27shi%27vre).

Also I don't think people are claiming Tau will have any kind of orbital supremacy (space combat is probably the only area where IoM ian't woefully outmatched technologically yet), but that the 'primitive' Tau flwet won't just roll over and die at first sight of Imperial warships.

**BrianDavion**

Again, old fluff. Those ships are no longer in service, they now have actual war-ships, instead of transports with weapons bolted on.

thats not how naval build up works, not in an empire activly at war, ESPECIALLY not one that has a distinct numerical disadvantage.

Also I don't think people are claiming Tau will have any kind of orbital supremacy (space combat is probably the only area where IoM ian't woefully outmatched technologically yet), but that the 'primitive' Tau flwet won't just roll over and die at first sight of Imperial warships.

thing is no one's claiming that, but rather the claim is that due to the reality of the Tau fleet presence, they'll be at a considerable disadvantage strategicly.

that said, as others have noted, the Tau's disadvantage in this field will be less and less as the Space being protected is smaller and smaller.

If I had to hazard a guess, the Tau will lose many of their furthered flung conquests and be pushed back into a span of space that they can easily defend.

**Co'tor Shas**

BrianDavion wrote:
Again, old fluff. Those ships are no longer in service, they now have actual war-ships, instead of transports with weapons bolted on.

thats not how naval build up works, not in an empire activly at war, ESPECIALLY not one that has a distinct numerical disadvantage.

Not really. Those ships have been compltetely replaced, as they are obsolete. They went back to their original roles, transports and freighters.

And it's not like they are at war with the imperium 24/7. They have long periods of truce, lasting hundreds of years in fact. The spheres of expansion weren't just a few years apart.

Also I don't think people are claiming Tau will have any kind of orbital supremacy (space combat is probably the only area where IoM ian't woefully outmatched technologically yet), but that the 'primitive' Tau flwet won't just roll over and die at first sight of Imperial warships.

thing is no one's claiming that, but rather the claim is that due to the reality of the Tau fleet presence, they'll be at a considerable disadvantage strategicly.

that said, as others have noted, the Tau's disadvantage in this field will be less and less as the Space being protected is smaller and smaller.

If I had to hazard a guess, the Tau will lose many of their furthered flung conquests and be pushed back into a span of space that they can easily defend.

At this point, probably not. They are not that stretched out. It will get that way eventually, if they don't upgrade however, and if the imperium attacks quickly enough between the spheres.

**Bobthehero**

They're obsolete, that doesn't mean the production rate of the newer ones can match the needs.

**Co'tor Shas**

And their is nothing to suggest they haven't. The tau empire has had long periods of peace with the imperium, and this was probably over 500 years ago. The tau are nothing if not efficient.

**Bobthehero**

They've been at war with other enemies, if anything, they've developped weapons that are good at dealing with Nids/Orks and will be rather bad when the Imperium shows up.

**Co'tor Shas**

Yes, but its not like they are losing 100 ships a day. They are not in mass mobilization 24/7.

And these ships were made after their old ones kept being out gunned and out maneuvered by the imprium's. Their whole design was to counter the imperium's ships.

Edit: That being said, they aren't like FWs compared to gaurdsmen, they are roughly equal, being better at some things, worse at others. The imperium can certainly produce more, and could crush the tau completely.

**LordBlades**

Bobthehero wrote:
They've been at war with other enemies, if anything, they've developped weapons that are good at dealing with Nids/Orks and will be rather bad when the Imperium shows up.

The new classes of ships have been AFAIK specifically designed after the Damocles Gulf Crusade with the goal to bring Tau on par with IoM in space.

Tau is not IoM, they are (relative to their size) much more capable to produce high tech equipment, not having to rely on a handful of Forgewolds and the secretive Adeptus Mechanicus for it.

Apart from Riptides I have come across no indication in fluff that Tau have any trouble supplying their troops with needed equipment in sufficient numbers. As such I feel that the Tau Navy having received the newer ships in the numbers they need is the more likely situation.

**Bobthehero**

Funny, the riptide was also developped around/during the Damocles Gulf Crusade, if they stuggle to make small suits, I'd rather not imagine the state of their navy.

**LordBlades**

Bobthehero wrote:
Funny, the riptide was also developped around/during the Damocles Gulf Crusade, if they stuggle to make small suits, I'd rather not imagine the state of their navy.

The issue with the Riptide is not that their assembly lines can't produce it, but rather that 'the materials for the dense nanocrystaline alloy armor are difficult to obtain' (Tau codex). Since there is no statement or implication anywhere that the new Tau ships use anything similar, they don't suffer from similar supply issues.

**Co'tor Shas**

The riptide was first field-tested during the battle of Mu'gulath Bay, they didn't even exist during the Damocles crusade. The Damocles crusade was over 250 years prior. It's still a prototype. The reason it is supposed to be rare is because of the armour, the specific materials are too rare compared to the amount needed to mass produce them on the scale of crisis suits.

And, again, they matched the imperium's ships during the Taros Campaign, and the imperium's forces were far greater in pure numbers..

EDIT: Ninjed by one second

**BrianDavion**

Co'tor Shas wrote:
And their is nothing to suggest they haven't. The tau empire has had long periods of peace with the imperium, and this was probably over 500 years ago. The tau are nothing if not efficient.

I'm sorry but you're gonna need something a hell of a lot stronger then "there's nothing to suggest they haven't gotten rid of their old ships" in 40k.

seriously, I'm sure the old ships are in less important positions, but I suspect they're still in use, as you said the Tau are efficant. and scrapping them would be a hell of a lot less efficant then keeping them in service along safer areas as patrol ships in the interior of the empire etc.

fact is it doesn't matter, because we're talking about the strategic advantages. and the Tau have NOT developed faster intersteller travel

**LordBlades**

BrianDavion wrote:
Co'tor Shas wrote:
And their is nothing to suggest they haven't. The tau empire has had long periods of peace with the imperium, and this was probably over 500 years ago. The tau are nothing if not efficient.

I'm sorry but you're gonna need something a hell of a lot stronger then "there's nothing to suggest they haven't gotten rid of their old ships" in 40k.

seriously, I'm sure the old ships are in less important positions, but I suspect they're still in use, as you said the Tau are efficant. and scrapping them would be a hell of a lot less efficant then keeping them in service along safer areas as patrol ships in the interior of the empire etc.

fact is it doesn't matter, because we're talking about the strategic advantages. and the Tau have NOT developed faster intersteller travel

Faster is relative in the area of space we're talking about. Warp travel is notoriously slow and perilous in the Damocles Gulf area. IIRC it took the first crusade several months to cross it.

I also think Tau haven't completely scrapped their old designs, unless they have manpower issues (not enough Air Caste to crew them all). The Hero was 'a credible ship of the line' acvording to BFG book and their escorts were pretty good too in fluff IIRC so they can still perform tasjs behind the frfrontline. do believe that they have as many of the new ships that they feel they need though.

**Javin**

I think the Tau are in the same position as the IoM. Over extended and getting hammered.

The 1000 regiments and few SM battle companies are a drop in the bucket to the IoM. Probably reinforcements from the closest planets to the fighting. Certainly nothing that would be missed if they all died today.

The IoM has many enemies and certainly does not consider the Tau a serious threat. Nids, Chaos, Orks, and Necrons are actual threats to the IoM. Tau, like the Eldar or Dark Eldar are small, relatively minor factions in a galaxy wide war.

Could the IoM crush the Tau if nothing else was around? Of course they could. But the IoM is attacked on all sides, which is why minor powers like the Tau can continue to win small local wars.

**Mr Morden**

If the Imperium looses one planet its a statistic, if the Tau loose a planet its a tragedy.

The Tau are currently engaged I fighting the Orks, Tryanids, Imperium and have been attacked by both the awakening Necrons and Dark Eldar.

Its also interesting to note that some of their leaders seem as foolish and as incapable of accepting truths as do those of the Imperium.

**Rautakanki**

I liked the old fluff better where the damocles crusade was on the verge of crushing the Tau empire until the nids showed up. To me it seemed much more fitting than this weird anime hero crap we have now.

**Co'tor Shas**

I'd hardly say it was on the verge of crushing them. They may have lost, but it wouldn't be their end.

**Psienesis**

A Xenos species that displayed advanced technology and a willingness to expand its borders into areas rightfully owned by the Imperium?

You can bet that the Tau would have been exterminated had the Damocles Gulf Crusade not been required to turn around and fight Tyranids. It's simply how the Imperium works.

**Co'tor Shas**

As in there was no way something the size of the damocles crusade could defeat the tau wholly. They would just run out of troops.

**BrianDavion**

Co'tor Shas wrote:
As in there was no way something the size of the damocles crusade could defeat the tau wholly. They would just run out of troops.

this is the IoM, they'd just bring more troops in. a ten to 1 kill ratio in favor of the Tau? the IoM will take that. and win.

**Co'tor Shas**

And that could happen with any conflict at any time (assuming they have the troops available, but seeing as they haven't already done that, I don't think they do. Or everyone in the iperium is an idiot, which is quite possible.). And honestly, right now, the tau empire is worth far less to the imperium that it would take to capture them.

**Iron_Captain**

Co'tor Shas wrote:
And that could happen with any conflict at any time (assuming they have the troops available, but seeing as they haven't already done that, I don't think they do. Or everyone in the iperium is an idiot, which is quite possible.). And honestly, right now, the tau empire is worth far less to the imperium that it would take to capture them.

It would cost them too much? The Imperium is a group of extemely xenophobic religious zealots that would make ISIS look like the boy scouts, and they have virtually endless manpower and resources. That is not a very healthy combination. Exterminating the Tau is a sacred, religious duty. Even if 100 Imperial martyrs die for every Tau, it would still be a great victory for mankind, for their god demands it and they will have greatly pleased him by wiping yet another xenos species from existence.
The only reason the Imperium stalls its extermination of the Tau is because a vastly more dangerous xenos species (the Tyranids) has a higher priority on the destruction list which means less attention is given to the Tau.
The Tau really need to invent some way of hiding from the Imperial onslaught (maybe by relocating to someplace outside Imperial borders or becoming nomadic like the Eldar) or they are as good as done for. That is, if the Tyranids or Chaos doesn't eat the Imperium first.

**BrianDavion**

Iron_Captain wrote:
Co'tor Shas wrote:
And that could happen with any conflict at any time (assuming they have the troops available, but seeing as they haven't already done that, I don't think they do. Or everyone in the iperium is an idiot, which is quite possible.). And honestly, right now, the tau empire is worth far less to the imperium that it would take to capture them.

It would cost them too much? The Imperium is a group of extemely xenophobic religious zealots that would make ISIS look like the boy scouts, and they have virtually endless manpower and resources. That is not a very healthy combination. Exterminating the Tau is a sacred, religious duty. Even if 100 Imperial martyrs die for every Tau, it would still be a great victory for mankind, for their god demands it and they will have greatly pleased him by wiping yet another xenos species from existence.
The only reason the Imperium stalls its extermination of the Tau is because a vastly more dangerous xenos species (the Tyranids) has a higher priority on the destruction list which means less attention is given to the Tau.
The Tau really need to invent some way of hiding from the Imperial onslaught (maybe by relocating to someplace outside Imperial borders or becoming nomadic like the Eldar) or they are as good as done for. That is, if the Tyranids or Chaos doesn't eat the Imperium first.

and if Chaos or the 'nids gets the IoM. the Tau are in even worse trouble.

**Iracundus**

The Imperium is vast but it does not have endless resources, and it faces threats on multiple fronts. In particular, the fact that it had to resort to subterfuge against Leviathan (Kryptman luring the Tyranids against the Orks after realizing Battlefleet Solar could not go head to head and win against Leviathan) shows the Imperium is stretched. The Imperium has to protect its heartland and capital, Segmentum Solar and Terra respectively. To stomp on the Tau now is equivalent to trying to exterminate a nest of termites while the house is burning down around you. The Tau are a regional power, and their expansionism poses a future threat, but the Imperium faces current more immediate threats. In fact, in the aftermath of the Eye of Terror worldwide campaign, it was written in Codices that the Third Sphere Expansion was triggered after the Imperium stripped defenses from the Eastern Fringe in order to reinforce Cadia.

I would expect that like the original Damocles Crusade, any attempt at stomping the Tau will end up being diverted or watered down in favor of dealing with pressing threats elsewhere. A token force might still be sent for the sake of placating local interests and "showing the flag" of the Imperium so that local systems do not secede because they feel abandoned.

**Psienesis**

Well, of course, because GW isn't going to Squat the Tau. There will always be something that prevents the IoM from ending the Tau... it's why the faction exists as-is currently.

**Iracundus**

Psienesis wrote:
Well, of course, because GW isn't going to Squat the Tau. There will always be something that prevents the IoM from ending the Tau... it's why the faction exists as-is currently.

Of course. That is why I find all these debates about Imperium vs. Tau to be a bit amusing in their sheer futility. The Imperium clearly has sufficient quantity of troops and war material to destroy the Tau, even if the Tau hold some quality advantage in certain areas, but the Imperium is unable to mobilize sufficient force because there are so many other threats to deal with (and GW will not let them as there is no faction destruction).

Nor is the Imperium's lack of response really stupidity. The Imperium is so decentralized and spread out that what to local Imperial authorities seems a big threat, is but a minor footnote for the bureaucrats on Terra who have to contend with things like Abaddon's 13th Black Crusade and Hive Fleet Leviathan. There are no doubt many other minor alien empires sprinkled throughout the galaxy and each will have their own local Imperial authorities or Inquisitors demanding resources to put an end to their particular threat. Which one of them gets their request answered and to what extent? Quite simply the Imperium is spread too thinly and often has to settle for stalling a threat rather than completely eliminating it.

I take the stance that rather than the simplistic "The High Lords of Terra are stupid and corrupt people perverting the Emperor's will" stance that seems to be played up at times by other players or by the GW characters in fiction, the High Lords are fallible humans doing the best they can with their limited resources but there simply aren't enough to go around.

**LordBlades**

Psienesis wrote:
Well, of course, because GW isn't going to Squat the Tau. There will always be something that prevents the IoM from ending the Tau... it's why the faction exists as-is currently.

Just like there will always be something preventing the Chaos Gods from turning Abaddin into a spawn and electing somebody less incompetent as warmaster, or the necrons awakening en-masse, or several Tyranid Hive Fleets arriving at the same time and nomming the whole galaxy.