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 JohnHwangDD wrote:

 warboss wrote:
I'm debating until when to give Palladium before filing.

You should have filed yesterday. And then, release PDFs of your complaints so that others can do the same.

Do you have a link to your's, John?

I'm secondary on the split, so my name's not on the pledge. I don't have standing to file, or I'd have filed last year.

I saw this update and actually said aloud (my wife looked at me funny) What the actual Frak? (though not ....censored)

Counts updated to reflect what this "update" contained;

Days since Wayne said he'd give us a full breakdown on the status of all the pieces: **206**
Days since the last substantial Wave 2 info: 336
Days since the campaign ended: 986 (woo we break 1000 in February!)

Days until the end of "Summer" 2016: 236
Days until the end of 2016: 336

If things won't be "heating up" until the Spring/Summer, I'm going to assume that they've come to realize they won't have wave two on hand in the next half year, and thus will miss Gencon.

Similarly, since they seem to have given up on Q2, I've included the latter part of their current "heating up period" of Summer, which officially ends in late September.

They went from renders and prototypes to punching plastic in half a year with wave 1. They've had 1.5 years since that went from design to production, and are tacking another 9-12 months or so on for good measure.

I don't care what they or their beloved fan friends say, 2.5 years is more than ample time to produce two dozen fething figures

And that ignores the work that allegedly existed even during wave one's development and prior to the campaign even starting; they had prototypes of 'wave two' items at Gencon 2013, so even if they have 'China' doing revision work and whatnot, it's not like they were starting entirely from scratch.

Show, don't tell.

Jazzhands.

We're coming up on the year anniversary of the last substantial Wave 2 info?!?

For curiosity's sake - what was it?

Five sprue breakdowns and a promise for more info to come.

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/rrpgt/robotech-rpg-tacticstm/posts/1150566

Still nothing on the Monster, tho... If I just get that kit, my blood pressure would drop substantially.

 Forar wrote:
Five sprue breakdowns and a promise for more info to come.

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/rrpgt/robotech-rpg-tacticstm/posts/1150566

Wow...

Emphasis mine:

Update #173

Feb 28 2015
Wave 2 Update
200 Comments
55 likes

Hey, guys. Wayne here.

I've been promising Wave 2 updates and pictures for a while now, but it has taken me so long to start posting them, some have begun to express some doubts. I’m sorry about that; there’s no reason you guys should ever feel in the dark so much that you start to worry about whether we’re even working on this stuff. Well, we are. ALL Wave Two pieces are either done or in active development. But pictures are worth more than words, so here you go.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
Still nothing on the Monster, tho... If I just get that kit, my blood pressure would drop substantially.

My daughter wants a pony, too.

Guess what?

Merijeek wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
Still nothing on the Monster, tho... If I just get that kit, my blood pressure would drop substantially.

My daughter wants a pony, too.

Guess what?

She'll have one before Wave 2 comes out?

Is that it? Oh...I'm so bad at guessing games...

 Krinsath wrote:

Merijeek wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
Still nothing on the Monster, tho... If I just get that kit, my blood pressure would drop substantially.

My daughter wants a pony, too.

Guess what?

She'll have one before Wave 2 comes out?

Is that it? Oh...I'm so bad at guessing games...

Well, it is more probable. I might find a winning lottery ticket. I might get a massive head wound. I might meet Rainbow Dash when she's looking for a place to stay.

Merijeek wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
Still nothing on the Monster, tho... If I just get that kit, my blood pressure would drop substantially.

My daughter wants a pony, too.

Guess what?

OK, I'll guess that she placed a deposit for a pony that you promised years ago, and now she's getting madder and madder at your lame excuses?

How close am I?

Strangely, no.

Her wanting one did not, in fact cause me to promise her one. Because I know it's a completely unrealistic thing for me to promise her.

I guess, deep down, I'm just not a Brilliant(tm) Visionary(c).

I know it's a little dark, but here's some more "running totals" to follow on for Forar.

Number of backers* that are dead and buried since January 1st, 2014, the date this campaign was officially late : 22.
Date the next (23rd) backer* shuffles off this mortal coil : Feb 22nd, 2015
Date the 27th backer* (making it fully 1/2 of 1% of backers) carks it : July 7th, 2015

* I'm only using rough numbers, based on the rate of 35 year old Americans. I'm sure there are some more complicated calculations that could factor in everything. I figured 35 at the time of the end of the campaign was a reasonably safe average, and actuarial tables say one of that group, for a group the size of 5342, moves upstate to the farm with all the other puppies, once every 34 days.

Actually, I think it could be higher. If you watched Robotech as a child, it would have been 1985. Assume age of 10, and you have backers born 1975. They should be 40+, so the actuarial result is worse.

Note that the rewards are still owed to the estate of the deceased...

I'm 42, have recently found that I have heart problems, plus High Blood Pressure, working in a high stress job. Statistically, I will be dead within the next 5 years. I am working to prevent this, but the damage is done. I will probably not see wave 2 released.

I was diagnosed last year, after this project was already a year overdue. Correlation?

 megatrons2nd wrote:
I'm 42, have recently found that I have heart problems, plus High Blood Pressure, working in a high stress job. Statistically, I will be dead within the next 5 years. I am working to prevent this, but the damage is done. I will probably not see wave 2 released.

I was diagnosed last year, after this project was already a year overdue. Correlation?

Hang in there. I had cancer last year but I am recovering pretty good now.

Good God, this thread gets more depressing each day.

I didn't even fund the Kickstarter. I come to see the half arsed updated emails PB sends out and to guage the future of the game. Both are equally disappointing.

Oh god, it just dawned on me in the time that this Kickstarter has been running I've gotten married, conceived a child, and said child is already a year old. It's a sad day when you have to measure a timeline for some toys in major life events.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
Actually, I think it could be higher. If you watched Robotech as a child, it would have been 1985. Assume age of 10, and you have backers born 1975. They should be 40+, so the actuarial result is worse.

Note that the rewards are still owed to the estate of the deceased...

he did call it an average.

Some backers watched at a young age (I was 6 when I got into the series, and 33 when the campaign ended in 2013), and there'll be fans brought in years and decades ago by older fans, by Macross stuff they picked up, etc.

I think it's a safe bet the average backer skews older, but let's not get really dark here. Starting from 40 or older would probably be... more depressing than we really want to get.

But the sad fact remains we're approaching the 3 year mark. That's roughly 1/15th the average north american's life expectancy. So when people say "omg be patient you whiners", I think they're overlook the raw scale of time we're talking about here.

Especially since it'd take another 1/15th to assemble this gak and probably one more to paint it up. :-P

 combat engineer wrote:
I didn't even fund the Kickstarter. I come to see he half arsed update emails PB sends out and to guage the future of the game. Both are equally disappointing.

Seconded.

 Forar wrote:
But the sad fact remains we're approaching the 3 year mark. That's roughly 1/15th the average north american's life expectancy. So when people say "omg be patient you whiners", I think they're overlook the raw scale of time we're talking about here.

Especially since it'd take another 1/15th to assemble this gak and probably one more to paint it up. :-P

so the average North American lives 45 years? crud I should have been dead before this project even started.

Yeah, I think his math's a bit off there!

And that's why Forar isn't allowed to Math before he has had coffee. Though to be fair, if obesity rates keep going up, 45 might not be far off... >.>

1/25th.

So hey, down to ~12% of our life expectancy for delivery/building/painting! Progress!

But seriously, anyone who thinks that 3 fething years is still "oh shut up and be patient" numbers is out of their fething mind.

In the time that Palladium has started this project, Wyrd has moved from Metal to Plastic, and released like four hundred different figures.

... that may be hyperbole.

 Forar wrote:
But seriously, anyone who thinks that 3 fething years is still "oh shut up and be patient" numbers is out of their fething mind.

In the time that Palladium has started this project, Wyrd has moved from Metal to Plastic, and released like four hundred different figures.

... that may be hyperbole.

Not by much. In a full year's time Palladium hasn't really shown anything of substance.

Kingdom Death, at least gives quarterly(?) Updates, but at least those Updates have been truly, mouth-wateringly substantial. Wave 3 (Expansions), I've seen that he's got sprues made, print in pre-production, and so fort. Real progress. And Adam makes some effort to communicate in the Comments when he's not absolutely buried.

Wyrd has redone their entire range, releasing what looks to be 6+ Crews for 7 factions, each with roughly half-dozen models? So that's ~250 figures just in the starting Crews, plus another 50-100 models (including TTB) to round them out. I estimate 300-350 models by Wyrd in the conversion from M1E metal to M2E plastic. I would not be surprised if the current count is pushing 400, but yeah. Go Wyrd! Speaking of, I recently traded to get a boatload of M1E metal, but the new stuff is amazing!

I've never understood why Wyrd basically only shows renders and not actual models, and I'm always amazed at how hard it is to find decent pics of their plastics!

Anyway...has Wayne or PB ever expressed any shame over just how wrong that Feb 28, 2015 'update' was?

 Alpharius wrote:
Anyway...has Wayne or PB ever expressed any shame over just how wrong that Feb 28, 2015 'update' was?

how can they when they are shameless ?

 Alpharius wrote:
Anyway...has Wayne or PB ever expressed any shame over just how wrong that Feb 28, 2015 'update' was?

PB? Show shame? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....oh feth me that was a good one Alph. Definitely put that one in your five-minute set for your miniatures comedy act.

More likely they will point the finger at someone like Rick who is the Ringleader of All Detractors and the Prince of All Lies (told about PB). Due to those persons, they can't show their not-progress because mean people on the Internet will be mean to them. Or they'll throw some other lackey or contractor under the bus because blame-shifting is PB's stock-in-trade and not so much self-awareness nor humility. At least one of those things are required to experience "shame" after all.

John, that Dragon has got to be eleventy billion pieces, right? Cause it couldn't possibly be done any other way.

I still laugh when I look at my plastic Witchling Stalkers, and those are single piece. That's why Wayne's argument rang hollow. When it's handled competently, by a company that knows what they're doing, and willing to explore options instead of going with the lowest bidder, plastics can be quite well handled.

As for the actuarial thing, yes, 35 was an intentional undercut, as we don't have any hard information on it, and I didn't want to be accused of "ginning the numbers to make PB look worse than they are". Calculating for 40 is easy. It's about 40% more likely, and gets steadily worse each year. Hmm... I just checked my math, and it seems I did it wrong or misremembered the initial calculation (was over a year ago I did it). Either that, or the actuarial table is different than when I did it. Though that's unlikely.

So, here's the revised amounts, for 35 and 40.
Number of backers* that are dead and buried since January 1st, 2014, the date this campaign was officially late : 14 & 22
Date the next (15th and 23rd) backer* shuffles off this mortal coil : This Sunday, 7th Feb & Wednesday 10th Feb.
Date the 27th backer* (making it fully 1/2 of 1% of backers) carks it : Thursday, 12 October next year, and Thursday, 23 June this year.

It doesn't factor in cumulative effect (which would make the numbers in each case worse). But it's accurate enough to see that it's not good. But at least that's a couple dozen refunds Kevin won't have to issue, so umm... yay?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Alpharius wrote:
I've never understood why Wyrd basically only shows renders and not actual models, and I'm always amazed at how hard it is to find decent pics of their plastics!

Anyway...has Wayne or PB ever expressed any shame over just how wrong that Feb 28, 2015 'update' was?

For the Wyrd stuff, they show a fair bit in the Plastic Build Instructions, but I'm guessing they don't show sprues in general, because unlike PB, they want to show what they look like under the best circumstances? Something PB should have done by getting the miniatures properly assembled, painted and photographed by professionals. But I'm sure Kevin will get right on that, after he's done missing Murmurs.

As for Wayne showing shame, like Krisnath said, nope. Heck, I don't think they've acknowledged those missed announcements in the last year, except in the vaguest manner possible. ie, "we'll try to do better going forward", as a reference to missed dates, but not specifying what was missed. I think the closest that was given was in regards to the Wave 2 paper standees in a PBWU, where Kevin threw Wayne under the bus, that they couldn't put the standees up until the stat cards were done. And then completely forgotten about since.