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2015/07/07 14:36:55
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
sebster wrote: The story about Greek fiscal irresponsibility is a myth.
Debt was fairly close to static for 15 years;
Now, there’s a case that can be made that Greece should have been working its debt down over that period, but that’s hardly a unique failing to Greece, and certainly not a big enough mistake that Greece could be expected to end up like this.
Nah, the problem here is the Euro and the surrounding political structures.
This isn’t something that can only happen to Greece.
I really cannot agree with "Greek fiscal irresponsibility is a myth." I had a bunch of links with the IMF audits and recommendations that showed otherwise.
Also it was admitted by Greece they cooked the books on their deficits (multiple times!) so the graph submitted may still have the "erroneous data" 1997-2003.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Financial_Audit,_2004 Just the tax collecting ineffectiveness alone raises a few eyebrows.
There were complaints of civil-service overspending but at least "per-capita" they do not have personnel bloat.
I DO agree however that the euro gave some temporary relief in some interest rate matters but would be the cause of their financial woes.
Some key dates for Greece:
1974 - Military dictatorship collapses.
1973-1993: High inflation.
1980-1993: Continual trend of deficit government spending to "jump-start" the economy (agreed with graph).
1981: Greece enters the "European Union".
1990-1999: Greece government focuses on bringing down inflation ending less than 5% (started at about 23%).
2001-2002: Greece adopts euro currency.
1995-2006: Economic growth period. Steady growth GDP per capita from ~$16,000 to ~$24,000.
1999: Greek government starts budgeting at a deficit and downward trend starts again (officially recognized).
1997-2003: Much deficit spending was "hidden" and 2004 an audit was conducted to investigate the reporting "irregularities".
2009: It was reported deficit was 6% of GDP then later admitted to be 12.6% (??!!) which caused Greek 10 year bonds to go to insane (>30%) interest rate levels.
2009-2010: Further EU audits were conducted due to irregularities in accounting practices: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_financial_audits,_2009%E2%80%9310
I strongly suspect if the debt was reported accurately it would have shown a straight line from 1980 to 2010.
A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte
2015/07/07 15:19:42
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios
Kilkrazy wrote: To generalise unfairly, the German electorate have come to regard Greece as a nation of lazy money grubbers (another unfair generalisation) who have sucked up more than enough German tax Euros and they want it back. Therefore Merkel is under pressure similar to the Greek prime minister but shoving in the opposite direction.
It may be unfair to categorize its people that way, but given what is happening its hardly unfair to begin treating the government as such. And begin demanding repayment/refusing any more loans.
Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines
Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.
USCIS is getting ready for mass exodus from Greece.
Proud Member of the Infidels of OIF/OEF
No longer defending the US Military or US Gov't. Just going to ""**feed into your fears**"" with Duffel Blog Did not fight my way up on top the food chain to become a Vegan...
Warning: Stupid Allergy
Once you pull the pin, Mr. Grenade is no longer your friend
DE 6700
Harlequin 2500
RIP Muhammad Ali.
Jihadin, Scorched Earth 791. Leader of the Pork Eating Crusader. Alpha
2015/07/07 21:21:34
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
It occurs to me that if Greece drops out of the Euro and returns to the Drachma, all the money that rich people stashed abroad will quickly become lots more valuable as the Drachma will rapidly devalue.
It's going down to the wire, ever closer to the no money point.
Euro countries are probably raising every firewall and banking defense system they have to limit fallout in the other countries.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2015/07/08 01:27:20
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
Greece will run out of money.
Another day will dawn.
Other countries will have little to worry about since Greece IS out of the euro: they have none to spend.
Greek citizens will be wondering what they will use to eat however.
They will also be wondering how they will contact the foreign banks they squirreled their money into.
The government will need to print something, assume drachma.
Drachma earnings may have the pleasant side effect of keeping currency in the country.
Greece wanted to leverage loan forgiveness which I would factor in as a high priority.
If they get kicked from the euro they will have squat for leverage.
Worse, they will need to be a cautionary tale for Portugal, Spain and Italy.
Say Greece then says they will default on ALL loans (backup plan if it goes real bad.).
I wonder what deals / forgiveness would be spun to get SOME money back rather than none for the losing countries / banks.
How DO you repossess from a country?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/08 01:40:36
A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte
2015/07/08 04:10:16
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
Kilkrazy wrote: It occurs to me that if Greece drops out of the Euro and returns to the Drachma, all the money that rich people stashed abroad will quickly become lots more valuable as the Drachma will rapidly devalue.
That's what makes me even more frustrated, the fact that the rich will become even richer.
Of course, there's the small chance people will get VERY upset so it might even be to the governement's interest to actually put some of these people behind bars.
I hope I don't get the chance to see all this happening...
Edit: Had to Google up what USCIS stood for!
United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/08 04:11:28
.@ManfredWeber "Mr Tsipras, the extremists of Europe are applauding you. You are surrounding yourself with the wrong friends."
I mean, ouch.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2015/07/08 11:22:28
"Fear is freedom! Subjugation is liberation! Contradiction is truth! These are the truths of this world! Surrender to these truths, you pigs in human clothing!" - Satsuki Kiryuin, Kill la Kill
2015/07/08 15:18:41
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
@TheDraconicLord: Thanks for that live feed link, it is interesting stuff.
I find out of the various organizations involved I "like" the IMF the most. They had appeared the most "realistic" of the bunch with their assessments and recommendations for Greece.
"Unsustainable debt" is one big problem identified, I like the quote "many are unwilling to recognize". So many groups are emotionally angry enough to not consider the "write-down" / forgiveness on loans that will be needed for a planned debt exit (carrot) or walking away will be the only viable alternative.
The recommendations of government owned organizations to be sold off and be privatized as well as tightening / enforcement of taxes had been outlined years ago and rightly pointed out that the Greek government has done little. "Easy" to tax citizens have taken the brunt of the few austerity measures that had been taken.
It boils down to: until Greece can run the country day to day without a budgetary deficit (not even including loan payment) the "bailout loans" are utterly pointless hence this playing "chicken".
I "think" Tsipras's plan is to keep hitting the "unsustainable debt" button to get forgiveness on loans while pointing to killing his corporate middle-class while downplaying the lack of general efficiencies. Backup plan is then exit the Euro so he is in a position to walk away from loans and negotiate from that standing. Last ditch effort is enter some "agreement" with Russia.
I hope Greece is not looking too hard at Russia, I think Putin would have a far less humane view on loan collecting.
A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte
2015/07/08 20:53:39
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
He does not mess about and hardly one prone to not doing what he says unlike western flip flops.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2015/07/09 01:20:24
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
jhe90 wrote: Putin, not one man I would like to owe.
He does not mess about and hardly one prone to not doing what he says unlike western flip flops.
I honestly think those in power in Greece think they are clever horse traders.
If Putin thought for a minute he was swindled, it would become personal real quick.
Yeah, lets hope Greece gets some traction in plan A or B.
A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte
2015/07/09 01:26:00
Subject: Re:Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
Putin might just start buying property in Greece soon Truth told I actually looked into it myself.
Proud Member of the Infidels of OIF/OEF
No longer defending the US Military or US Gov't. Just going to ""**feed into your fears**"" with Duffel Blog Did not fight my way up on top the food chain to become a Vegan...
Warning: Stupid Allergy
Once you pull the pin, Mr. Grenade is no longer your friend
DE 6700
Harlequin 2500
RIP Muhammad Ali.
Jihadin, Scorched Earth 791. Leader of the Pork Eating Crusader. Alpha
2015/07/09 02:01:17
Subject: Re:Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
Jihadin wrote: Putin might just start buying property in Greece soon Truth told I actually looked into it myself.
I am glad you have actual combat experience.
You may need it for the Greek real estate market.
There are more loopholes than you can shake a stick at.
Amusing reading here: http://www.athensguide.com/dorian/buying-property.htm
Most likely Putin will claim stranded vacationing Russians need protection from this economic unrest and he is sending a "humanitarian aid" convoy complete with a giant horse statue as a gift.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2015/07/09 02:10:37
A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte
2015/07/09 02:12:22
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
I don’t believe there was a lack of will – each time things have gotten desperate Germany and the rest of the EU has done what was needed to stabilise the situation.
I believe it’s more of an issue of really, really terrible economic policy. A lot of people are really surprised about how their fix for Greece has been so disastrous. People are now trying to forget, but when all this started the dominant economic belief was that austerity could fix deficits without impacting GDP and employment. The austerity camp was split between people who thought spending cuts wouldn’t impact GDP, and those thought it would actually increase GDP, but between the two they held broad popular support and overwhelming support in Brussels.
But the problem is those ideas were ridiculous from a technical point of view – they were based around a handful of minor papers that were quickly shown to be grossly flawed research. And in time reality came to show how ridiculous those ideas were as well - Greece slashed spending and raised taxes, and with no ability to devalue its own currency to offset that it’s GDP plummeted.
But this is politics, no-one is going to admit they screwed up. They either insist on doubling down and demand more austerity from Greece, or just quietly start talking about other solutions while making sure everyone believes this is all Greece's fault.
Talizvar wrote: I really cannot agree with "Greek fiscal irresponsibility is a myth."
I think you can make a fair point that I didn't state with complete accuracy - Greece has certainly been fiscally irresponsible. A more correct statement would be 'it is a myth that Greece's fiscal irresponsibility is the primary cause of its current meltdown, and there is a bigger myth that other Eurozone countries with better debt to GDP ratios aren’t at risk of similar meltdowns’.
I mean, you point out that there is a serious issue with tax avoidance in Greece, and that benefits are high. Those things are true and important and Greece will do well to address both, but they aren’t the driver of what collapsed Greek GDP.
Oh, and your theory that Greece actually had a steady growth in debt to GDP, uncaptured by the graph is very loose speculation, with little understanding for the numbers. The simplest thing you need to understand is that Greece has had a 25% fall in GDP since 2010, that alone will cause debt to increase by 33%, for instance from 105% to 140% even without the total nominal debt changing.
Here it is in graph form for you - the split between how much of Greece’s debt/gdp ratio came from increasing debt compared to how much from falling GDP;
Grey Templar wrote: It may be unfair to categorize its people that way, but given what is happening its hardly unfair to begin treating the government as such. And begin demanding repayment/refusing any more loans.
It's easy to think in morals and what is fair, but it's a really bad way of running economies. A collapsed Greece helps no-one. Even if we pretend that Greek lives don’t matter, we have to realise the basic reality that Greek collapse won’t help creditors get their money back, and it certainly won’t help business and industry in Europe that needs every buyer for goods it can find.
Talizvar wrote: I wonder what deals / forgiveness would be spun to get SOME money back rather than none for the losing countries / banks.
How DO you repossess from a country?
You don’t. If Greece genuinely threatened to leave the Euro and refuse debts, then Europe would counter with threats about trade bans. If those trade bans were put in place then that would really, truly collapse the Greek economy, to like North Korea levels.
But more likely the threat of trade bans would be just another piece of leverage in the on-going debate over what level of debt forgiveness Greece will be granted.
That’s really all this is about on a fundamental level – what level of debt Greece is going to be forgiven, and what Greece must do in order to get that level of debt forgiveness. The reason it’s spiralled to this point of brinkmanship is really because the Euro powers have maintained a very mistaken idea of what would work best to get Greece out of this problem- Greece has accepted those terms for a long time, and only seen the problem get worse as it led to a collapse in GDP.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Talizvar wrote: The recommendations of government owned organizations to be sold off and be privatized as well as tightening / enforcement of taxes had been outlined years ago and rightly pointed out that the Greek government has done little. "Easy" to tax citizens have taken the brunt of the few austerity measures that had been taken.
Actually there have been massive spending cuts in addition to tax increases. The troika responded to that mix unfavourably, as it didn’t suit their personal idea of how an economy should be run – all spending cuts and privatisation was their preferred measure.
Leaving aside exactly how savings ought to be balanced (or whether it even matters), it simply is not the place of any European group to start dictating domestic matters. The whole idea of Europe is that individual countries are still left with discretion on domestic matters, and so the idea that an unelected group of financiers can dictate how a country makes its savings targets are met should have outraged all of Europe. But, you know, the Greece is irresponsible narrative had been sold already.
This message was edited 5 times. Last update was at 2015/07/09 03:18:50
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2015/07/09 08:34:39
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
jhe90 wrote: Putin, not one man I would like to owe.
He does not mess about and hardly one prone to not doing what he says unlike western flip flops.
Also, proven success at national level finance and managing a national economy.
Despite not being exactly the world's most popular leader, and willing to use some fairly rough measures to get jobs done and sort out problems.
However he has managed to bring Russia from the ruins of communism to a fairly modern economy whilst not exactly perfect or ideal is many times better than what oit was before.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2015/07/09 14:43:19
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
sebster wrote: I don’t believe there was a lack of will – each time things have gotten desperate Germany and the rest of the EU has done what was needed to stabilise the situation.
I believe it’s more of an issue of really, really terrible economic policy. A lot of people are really surprised about how their fix for Greece has been so disastrous. People are now trying to forget, but when all this started the dominant economic belief was that austerity could fix deficits without impacting GDP and employment. The austerity camp was split between people who thought spending cuts wouldn’t impact GDP, and those thought it would actually increase GDP, but between the two they held broad popular support and overwhelming support in Brussels.
But the problem is those ideas were ridiculous from a technical point of view – they were based around a handful of minor papers that were quickly shown to be grossly flawed research. And in time reality came to show how ridiculous those ideas were as well - Greece slashed spending and raised taxes, and with no ability to devalue its own currency to offset that it’s GDP plummeted.
This topic has become something of a hobby for me so the dialogue back and forth is appreciated (get that out of the way first).
Spending cuts and effect on GDP really boils down to "that depends".
Cutting civil service jobs and cutting retirement packages removes spending from the public so I would expect some downturn.
Firming up how taxes are applied, collected and enforced (the full package) should have been a priority for government "income" but raised taxes seemed to target those who were "doing the right thing" and not addressing the tax dodgers.
Minimizing civil spending I guess privatization was figured to be an easy button to push where you remove government run businesses and their lack of efficiencies from the equation.
Applying a "charge per use" of some kind may have been a serious consideration due to the losing battle of tax avoidance.
But this is politics, no-one is going to admit they screwed up. They either insist on doubling down and demand more austerity from Greece, or just quietly start talking about other solutions while making sure everyone believes this is all Greece's fault.
I will have to agree with this statement.
If I HAD to assign blame it really boils down to systems failing.
Greece determined they were able to float enough debt they were willing to get to this point.
Upon entry into the euro between financial reporting methods and conditional loan requirements by the banks, they were determined "good for it" which still seems insane to me.
Talizvar wrote: I really cannot agree with "Greek fiscal irresponsibility is a myth."
I think you can make a fair point that I didn't state with complete accuracy - Greece has certainly been fiscally irresponsible. A more correct statement would be 'it is a myth that Greece's fiscal irresponsibility is the primary cause of its current meltdown, and there is a bigger myth that other Eurozone countries with better debt to GDP ratios aren’t at risk of similar meltdowns’.
Primary cause of meltdown, like any complex problem it was a multitude of factors BUT I maintain the majority of those factors were within Greece's control.
Factors not within Greece's control appear to me to only have effected the timeline of being a crisis sooner rather than later.
I have beaten to death the various factors earlier but it all still boils down to Greece consistently spent more than it earned and borrowed to make-up the loss.
I mean, you point out that there is a serious issue with tax avoidance in Greece, and that benefits are high. Those things are true and important and Greece will do well to address both, but they aren’t the driver of what collapsed Greek GDP.
The driver of what collapsed Greek GDP is their main income is tourism and their spending outstripped what the market could provide.
I tried to compare Argentina as a possible guide to Greece becoming sustainable but they do not have the same resources to exploit to do so.
Oh, and your theory that Greece actually had a steady growth in debt to GDP, uncaptured by the graph is very loose speculation, with little understanding for the numbers. The simplest thing you need to understand is that Greece has had a 25% fall in GDP since 2010, that alone will cause debt to increase by 33%, for instance from 105% to 140% even without the total nominal debt changing.
Yes the GDP numbers are pretty grim:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp It was already pretty much determined by the IMF as early as 2010 the debt was unsustainable even then.
The downturn has only augmented the debt to ridiculous levels and now makes the needed austerity measures a joke when trying for more 5 years too late.
Here it is in graph form for you - the split between how much of Greece’s debt/gdp ratio came from increasing debt compared to how much from falling GDP;
Spoiler:
Still trying to find what contributes the most to their GDP to see if any of this would have been "predictable", as best I could find their GDP is composed like this:
agriculture: 3.5%
industry: 16%
services: 80.5%
"Greece's main industries are tourism, shipping, industrial products, food and tobacco processing, textiles, chemicals, metal products, mining and petroleum."
What may have added to the "surprise" was that the GDP upturn prior to 2080 was considered an economic "miracle" and it would appear deficit spending and joining the euro were being depended on to try to restart that "magic".
Grey Templar wrote: It may be unfair to categorize its people that way, but given what is happening its hardly unfair to begin treating the government as such. And begin demanding repayment/refusing any more loans.
It's easy to think in morals and what is fair, but it's a really bad way of running economies. A collapsed Greece helps no-one. Even if we pretend that Greek lives don’t matter, we have to realise the basic reality that Greek collapse won’t help creditors get their money back, and it certainly won’t help business and industry in Europe that needs every buyer for goods it can find.
Problem is the line still needs to be drawn, the other countries need to cut their losses and give no more.
Bailouts only benefit the banks that gave out the bad loans (reward bad behavior? They can reap what they sow as well.).
Greece owes more money than it can ever repay.
A refusal to pay large portions of loans is inevitable, their credit rating shall be garbage.
Talizvar wrote: I wonder what deals / forgiveness would be spun to get SOME money back rather than none for the losing countries / banks.
How DO you repossess from a country?
You don’t. If Greece genuinely threatened to leave the Euro and refuse debts, then Europe would counter with threats about trade bans. If those trade bans were put in place then that would really, truly collapse the Greek economy, to like North Korea levels.
But more likely the threat of trade bans would be just another piece of leverage in the on-going debate over what level of debt forgiveness Greece will be granted.
That’s really all this is about on a fundamental level – what level of debt Greece is going to be forgiven, and what Greece must do in order to get that level of debt forgiveness. The reason it’s spiralled to this point of brinkmanship is really because the Euro powers have maintained a very mistaken idea of what would work best to get Greece out of this problem- Greece has accepted those terms for a long time, and only seen the problem get worse as it led to a collapse in GDP.
They initially followed the "plan" it was working, I had seen a drop from around 171% of GDP to 156% in 2013 when they were cracking down due to the audit finding issues.
I am beginning to question what this "mistaken idea" of what would work for Greece.
Working within the euro I must admit efficiencies of collection and spending is pretty much all you have.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Talizvar wrote: The recommendations of government owned organizations to be sold off and be privatized as well as tightening / enforcement of taxes had been outlined years ago and rightly pointed out that the Greek government has done little. "Easy" to tax citizens have taken the brunt of the few austerity measures that had been taken.
Actually there have been massive spending cuts in addition to tax increases. The troika responded to that mix unfavourably, as it didn’t suit their personal idea of how an economy should be run – all spending cuts and privatisation was their preferred measure.
The response was unfavorable because the spending cuts and tax increases were applied in the least effective areas, it still helped the bottom line mind you.
Leaving aside exactly how savings ought to be balanced (or whether it even matters), it simply is not the place of any European group to start dictating domestic matters. The whole idea of Europe is that individual countries are still left with discretion on domestic matters, and so the idea that an unelected group of financiers can dictate how a country makes its savings targets are met should have outraged all of Europe. But, you know, the Greece is irresponsible narrative had been sold already.
The outrage I feel should be saved by those who entrust their money to banks that felt it was worthwhile risk to extend loans to Greece.
The EU as a body is softening the blow to those banks giving the message that they did the right thing.
So then the outrage is transferred to tax payers in other countries.
The EU have no mechanism to allow a "normal" country to devalue it's currency to be competitive so Greece was stuck on many mechanisms for recovery.
But the snowball was all started by Greek politicians who figured some cheap loans (at the time) can help smooth out economic issues but their political instability nailed them so many times with market "insecurities" which drove increasingly high interest rates for borrowing both now and prior to joining the EU.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/09 14:47:22
A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte
2015/07/10 08:28:30
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras will on Friday seek the backing of MPs for a harsh new round of austerity measures totalling €13bn in an attempt to break the deadlock over its bailout.
A 13-page document sent to Greece’s creditors on Thursday night outlines plans to cut fiercely protected privileges such as pensions, tax breaks for the country’s islands and military spending. In exchange, Greece wants a three-year €53.5bn loan deal to save the nation from bankruptcy and kickstart its wrecked economy.
hahahaha wow. What was even the point of all this push-back then? The Greeks that voted for this administration must be pissed.
2015/07/10 09:17:20
Subject: Re:Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
PhantomViper wrote: Ok, I'm completely dumbstruck by this so maybe Shieldwolf could explain it.
What use was the referendum when what Tsipras is proposing now is almost an exact copy of what you guys voted against this past weekend?
How can he make a campaign for people to vote against the proposals and then in the very next week submit almost the exact same ones?
If one wants to be optimistic? It was a gamble for better terms that didn't pay off. If one wants to be a cynic? He can say he's listening to the will of the people and coming back with a "softer" counter-proposal even if it's largely identical. Probably a combination of both, maybe some other things.
Unfortunately, where Varoufakis was largely a hard driving realist coming at things from the approach of "this is what Greece can realistically do and not do", Tsipras himself really comes off as the naive amateur that really comes off as "well this is how we feel we're entitled to be treated" and has had an unfortunate wakeup call in that the other EU nations aren't buying that line.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/10 09:33:15
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
2015/07/10 13:29:55
Subject: Re:Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
Vaktathi wrote: Unfortunately, where Varoufakis was largely a hard driving realist coming at things from the approach of "this is what Greece can realistically do and not do", Tsipras himself really comes off as the naive amateur that really comes off as "well this is how we feel we're entitled to be treated" and has had an unfortunate wakeup call in that the other EU nations aren't buying that line.
I think the "realist" stance is the only type that would gain traction and international support.
Many EU members I think are still in denial that Greece can pay things off if they tighten their belt enough: it is too late.
It is a matter of Greece being able to follow "reasonable" restructuring of income and liabilities and piecing together what they can pay, they truly need to adhere to "reform".
Proposed measures here: http://www.amna.gr/english/articleview.php?id=10546
I personally think their government will still try to do the "easy" things like before which is what it looks like where they are headed.
Looking at the text in the "proposed measures" they appear to know what they need to do, what they mention appears correct for addressing spending and income.
I think for implementation they need to engage third parties to help with planning for the "watchdog" groups to fight corruption and collect taxes.
These are the areas I think are the source of their past failures and is key to their future success if there is any to be had.
They really need to foster a feeling of "no-one is safe from scrutiny" so the view of "everyone else is getting away with it, why not me?" has to end with the general public and the "elite". From reading many articles my impression is the big red button for the Greeks seems to be "fairness": if others are not held to the same standard why should I be held accountable?
Greece in general terms has committed to "responsible" measures.
EU: They need to recognize a write-down of Greek debt, possibly a special reduced interest rate for relief as well.
If I were them, I would also make it conditional that representatives of the banks be embedded in the top offices to monitor progress.
Gates or targets should be met to release batches of funds so it would be "their fault" if the needed money is not released.
I have a suspicion if big blocks of money are released there would be little pressure to meet the required goals as shown in the past: they need a sense of urgency at all times, not just crunch time (it destabilizes the economy with all this drama so spreading it out a bit may help).
A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte
2015/07/10 19:07:27
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
I'll admit I'm an ignorant American, and don't follow the whole Greece is out of money again news too closely, but I heard they're out of money again, and Germany is bailing them out. Again.
Isn't this like the third time?
I guess the repeat has piqued my interest. How does Greece keep running out of money, and why does Germany keep bailing them out?
What, if any, effect does a bankrupt Greece have on Europe and the world?
"Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment." Words to live by.
2015/07/10 19:37:22
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
Kap'n Krump wrote: I'll admit I'm an ignorant American, and don't follow the whole Greece is out of money again news too closely, but I heard they're out of money again, and Germany is bailing them out. Again.
Isn't this like the third time?
I guess the repeat has piqued my interest. How does Greece keep running out of money, and why does Germany keep bailing them out?
What, if any, effect does a bankrupt Greece have on Europe and the world?
Well for someone claiming ignorance you are asking the right questions.
Greece is spending more than it earns.
Greece is rather volatile so any loans it gets are high interest rate since they are "high risk" which the Greeks claim is "bleeding them dry" which is to some point correct.
For some reason, banks kept loaning them money well beyond what they are able to pay off both through lies by the Greeks and banks turning a blind eye.
In 2012 they owed 303,920,000,000 euros (303.92 billion).
For some interesting math, the average interest on those loans is 3% so they would owe: 9,117,600,000 euros (9.12 billion) just in interest per year not counting compound interest.
For a population of 11,300,000 in Greece (11.3 million), it looks like every man, woman and child would have to spend 807 euros per year just to pay interest on the loan.
To pay it all off, all of the above would need to pay 26,895 euros.
I think I did some very bad math earlier in one of my posts... this seems more correct to me (ah, confused old UK meaning "million million" 12 zeros as opposed to 9 used by USA).
A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte
2015/07/10 20:08:08
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
807 Euros each doesn't sound too bad. Bear in mind we aren't actually talking about dipping into peoples' pockets, we are talking about diversion of general government income from regular spending to debt repayments. The money would not come purely from personal income tax.
The total debt repayment of course would be done over years or decades. This is standard procedure for government bonds.
However it would be important for the Greeks not to keep running a large deficit.
Greece debt crisis: Greek MPs to debate controversial reforms plan
Greek MPs are to debate new proposals sent to the country's creditors with the aim of getting a third bailout and averting a possible exit from the euro.
The plans contain elements, including pension reforms and tax rises, that were rejected in a referendum called by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. The EU and other creditors are studying the plans before a summit on Sunday.
France and Italy welcomed the proposals but Germany, Greece's biggest creditor, warned of little room for compromise.
Follow the latest updates here
With Greece's banks running out of money and its economy facing implosion, this weekend brings a series of emergency talks over the debt crisis.
On Saturday, eurozone finance ministers meet under the Eurogroup - a forum for discussing monetary policy - to address the Greek plans.
A meeting of eurozone heads of government is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, followed by a full EU summit two hours later.
Greece in numbers
€320bn
Greece's debt mountain
€240bn
European bailout
177% country's debt-to-GDP ratio
25% fall in GDP since 2010
26% Greek unemployment rate
Source: ECB, IMF, Greek National Statistics Agency
Reuters
EU leaders seem divided over the Greek proposals so far.
German finance ministry spokesman Martin Jaeger said Germany saw "very little leeway in terms of restructuring, [or] reprofiling [Greece's debt]", and would not accept any reduction in debt that caused Germany more losses. He said Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble remained "sceptical"
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said he was optimistic and hoped a deal could be struck as soon as Saturday
French President Francois Hollande said the new proposals were "serious and credible" and that the "Greeks have just shown their determination to remain in the eurozone"
Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem said the Greek proposals were "thorough" - but warned they would have to be fully reviewed.
If approved, the proposals must also be ratified by parliaments in several EU member states, where they may be challenged.
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Analysis: Robert Peston, BBC economics editor
Only a few days ago Mr Tsipras won an overwhelming mandate from the Greek people, in a referendum, to reject more-or-less these bailout terms.
And today, on the back of that popular vote, he is signing up to the supposedly hated bailout. This is big politics that would make Lewis Carroll proud.
But here's the point. If a way isn't found to allow the banks to reopen within days - and the ECB simply maintaining Emergency Liquidity Assistance won't come anywhere near to achieving that - the Greek economy will implode so that any bailout deal agreed this weekend will become irrelevant in weeks.
What was the point of the referendum again? Is Tsipras gaming his electorate?
2015/07/10 20:44:35
Subject: Looks like Greece may be out of the Eurozone
The revised plan is almost the same as the previous plan that was rejected in the referendum.
All that the government has achieved is to delay everything and make their economic position even worse. They also will have pissed off everyone from the Germans to their own electorate. Oh, and lose their finance minister.
Talizvar wrote: I hope Greece is not looking too hard at Russia, I think Putin would have a far less humane view on loan collecting.
How many ethnic Russians do you think live in Greece?
Maybe a couple of divisions.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.